Ace of Spades HQ

October 25, 2012

Hurricane Sandy (tmi3rd)
— Open Blogger

A late good evening, Morons and Moronettes, from the AoSHQ Weather Desk. It seems like we just did this last year with Hurricane Irene, and Sandy is a very rare bird indeed. For the moment, however, let's concentrate on what we've got in the short term, and we'll move to the longer-term implications shortly.

Forecast map and discussion below the fold...

As of the 11 PM EDT advisory, Hurricane Sandy is a strong Category 1 hurricane, with winds of 90 mph sustained and gusts to 115 mph. Motion is roughly NNW at 12 mph. Minimum pressure is 968 millibars, which is fairly impressive.

Okay, so the first thing that jumps out in the map above is the big swing back to the northwest as it approaches the Tri-State area. That's pretty rare for Atlantic hurricanes; usually, they turn east and keep going. So let's talk about why that's happening.

Tropical systems take the path of least resistance. They tend to thrive under high pressure and get torn apart by areas of low pressure. It's currently getting torn up by its interactions with a low pressure area over Cuba. Sandy is forecast to interact with a series of low pressure features that will drag it north, then north-northeast, then finally back to the northwest (as of this model run).

National Hurricane Center (NHC) guidance has Sandy making an East Coast impact somewhere around a Category 1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm, but here's the rub- this is using the hurricane modeling, and that may not take into account that Sandy will lose its tropical characteristics as it transitions into what we call a hybrid system- a mix of a tropical cyclone and an extratropical system. There are characteristics of both, but they're more unpredictable. Therefore, allow for pretty broad fluctuations in course.

For the moment, expect high surf along the East Coast, and if you're anywhere from Philadelphia through Boston, you'll probably want to prepare for hurricane conditions to make their presence felt late in the weekend. As things clear up in terms of forecast solutions, we'll have more information. This should be a pretty messy storm to forecast, and bear in mind that this is a REALLY BROAD storm... several hundred miles in diameter, and asymmetric. That means the weather will be crappy for hundreds of miles in either direction from the center of circulation.

So, to close, begin your preparations NOW anywhere from Wilmington, DE/ Philadelphia, PA all the way up through the Maine coast... consider last year your dress rehearsal for this.

If you need to get a hold of me with questions, find me on Twitter at @tmi3rd. I'm going to spend the rest of the evening practicing my coughing. tmi4th occasionally brings home colds from daycare, and this one's a whopper.

-tmi3rd

Posted by: Open Blogger at 07:35 PM | Comments (138)
Post contains 473 words, total size 3 kb.

Let me be clear. This a storm likes of which we've never seen. The damage will be horrendous. For reasons of public safety, I've decided to cancel the elctions until we've fully recovered from this distaster.

Posted by: Barry Waffle at October 25, 2012 08:01 PM (i7B17)

2 Remembering Agnes of 1972

Posted by: Neo at October 25, 2012 08:03 PM (e8kgV)

3 That huricane mst be male cause it looks like it has Peyronies.

Or maybe Clinton now has a weather machine too.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at October 25, 2012 08:04 PM (6Z70c)

4 I hope Dick Cheney forgot to tell the Obama administration where he left the keys to the HAARP hurricane-steering machine.

Posted by: Anachronda at October 25, 2012 08:04 PM (1c58W)

5 My model calls for partly cloudy skies along the eastern seaboard, with a slight chance for the occasional spot shower, some accompanied by what I would classify as comfortable breezes.

Posted by: Nate Silver at October 25, 2012 08:07 PM (UvR6d)

6 Been watching this for a few days now. I taught a class tonight in Tom's River and none of my students seemed to take it seriously. Hope that changes if this path continues. Personally, I haven't been in a storm like this since Floyd in 1999. I need to check the foundation of the house I'm renting as I had some water in the basement just after a routine t-storm last week. This could be nasty. Anyone have advice on how to plug any cracks in a foundation, or would a couple bags of top soil cover any issues?

Posted by: Doc at October 25, 2012 08:08 PM (3HsdR)

7 Heading down tomorrow evening to secure the boats. Never know how much flooding will come in on these things. Don't want anything floating off the lifts. I'm on the tidal Rappahannock off the Chesapeake Bay.

Posted by: Jinx the Cat at October 25, 2012 08:08 PM (l3vZN)

8 Jesus... My daughter has her annual dance recital on Sunday here in providence ri. This could be a massive clusterfuck.

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 08:13 PM (CsFxV)

9 This could be nasty. Anyone have advice on how to plug any cracks in a foundation, or would a couple bags of top soil cover any issues?>>

If you have gutters putting long extensions on the downspouts will be the quickest fix. Then it is landscaping or a tile system below the floor.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at October 25, 2012 08:14 PM (6Z70c)

10 Hope everyone stays safe !!! Boy we could sure use some of that rain here in North Texas !!!! Can I haz some rains pleazzzzeeee !!!!!!!

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 25, 2012 08:14 PM (VHvdm)

11 Autocorrect keeps turning clusterfuck into 'cluster duck'

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 08:15 PM (CsFxV)

12 Looking forward to seeing the Philly NBPP washed out to sea, billy clubs and all.

Posted by: JEM at October 25, 2012 08:16 PM (qkaqS)

13 Momma bear, I'll put a funnel in my garden hose, and then buy an extension or something.

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 08:16 PM (CsFxV)

14 Sandy, that waitress I've been seeing lost her desire for me.

Posted by: Bruce at October 25, 2012 08:16 PM (7TwHV)

15 I hope Colin Powell gets the shits in his limo and then the engine gets flooded.

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 08:18 PM (CsFxV)

16 Just one more reason why I live in Colorado.

Posted by: Ball of Hate at October 25, 2012 08:18 PM (AREf/)

17 Forcast: Katrina X10, cause y'alls too stupids to believe in anything greater than yourselves!

Posted by: derit at October 25, 2012 08:18 PM (I88Jc)

Short term effect??? All US Navy Leaves and Liberty in Norfolk Va.are cancelled.... all ships are getting underway...

Area Bar Owners take a financial hit...

Posted by: Romeo13 at October 25, 2012 08:19 PM (lZBBB)

19 Every hurricane is pitched as the next Katrina, and oh by the way due to global warming... I'll see what it looks like on Saturday afternoon.

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 08:20 PM (CsFxV)

20 Small gasoline-powered generators that have been sitting for a while may not start. Better to find that out in advance than after the lights go out and stay out.

This problem has gotten exponentially worse due to mandated ethanol in gasoline.

Posted by: torquewrench at October 25, 2012 08:20 PM (ymG7s)

21 Btw, TMI 3, thank you for a comprehensive report with a neato graphic. Really cool, Mr. I 3!

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 08:21 PM (CsFxV)

22 Eh. Could be worse, like the evil GOP taking my birth control, tampons, and right to exist away.

Posted by: Sandra Fluck at October 25, 2012 08:21 PM (VrVBw)

23 GLOBAL WARMING!!!!ELEVENTY!!!

Posted by: IPCC at October 25, 2012 08:21 PM (lZBBB)

24 Jesus... A generator. Of course.

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 08:22 PM (CsFxV)

25 At least most of the venison in the freezer has been eaten, and the season hasn't started yet.

Posted by: Jinx the Cat at October 25, 2012 08:22 PM (l3vZN)

26 Blustery, temp in the 70's, sporadic rain totaling 0.5 inches since 8 pm Wed night. Just don't need another 30 inches like the last tropical storm. Good luck up the coast.

Posted by: Palm Beach Pooter Hound at October 25, 2012 08:23 PM (ufLRj)

27 OK.... If YOU won't flush the crap out of Washington DC... I'll do it for you!

Posted by: Mom Nature at October 25, 2012 08:24 PM (lZBBB)

28 Funny. This week has reminded me of why people love New England. Beautiful foliage, cool but not cold, clear skies... And then this weekend is going to remind me why I want to live in Texas. Momma bear, what football team do you root for? The Mean Green, or what?

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 08:24 PM (CsFxV)

29 So the east coast gets some sandy in their clits and us in vegas give a fuck why?

Posted by: Modgi at October 25, 2012 08:24 PM (3xuDv)

30 "All US Navy Leaves and Liberty in Norfolk Va.are cancelled.... all ships are getting underway..."

You have to wonder how many of those ships' crews may miss Election Day.

Posted by: torquewrench at October 25, 2012 08:26 PM (ymG7s)

31 "All US Navy Leaves and Liberty in Norfolk Va.are cancelled.... all ships are getting underway..."

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!

Posted by: Whore-icane Sandy Fluke at October 25, 2012 08:29 PM (c+Ph2)

32 This problem has gotten exponentially worse due to mandated ethanol in gasoline.

Posted by: torquewrench at October 26, 2012 12:20 AM (ymG7s)

I certainly hope that President Romney and a Republican congress can stop this feeding food to our gas tanks. If anyone thinks this doesn't affect you, your grocery bill is a direct result. It's not just gas (if you don't drive), or milk (if you're lactose intolerant), or beef, pork and chicken (if you're vegan). It's everything. ALL of this stupid Gore-shit needs to end, or our country will.

Posted by: kalneva at October 25, 2012 08:30 PM (cQmXn)

33 We came through Irene unscathed, but I'm more worried about this one. Daughter is bumming because she worked hard on a killer Halloween costume and probably won't be able to leave the house on Halloween.

Posted by: rockmom at October 25, 2012 08:33 PM (qe2/V)

34 Torquewrench: that was my first thought also.

Posted by: rabidfox at October 25, 2012 08:34 PM (dUXR5)

35 I, for one have stocked up on horses, bayonets, and these ships that actually go under water, just in case this scenario actually arose.

Posted by: Preezy up in ur debeezy at October 25, 2012 08:35 PM (3xuDv)

Rockmom, what is the costume? I remember when my kids were wee 'uns, that was very important! I hope they get to go!

My fave was when my daughter and her BFF (still to this day!) went as Wayne and Garth! So cute!

Posted by: kalneva at October 25, 2012 08:37 PM (cQmXn)

37 Gaia is a whore. Ya never know where she's gonna blow. Maybe it's a War by Women?

Posted by: my convoluted mental processes at October 25, 2012 08:37 PM (Q2wni)

38 Why don't all the Mothers-in-law on the East Coast just nag it into heading straight for France?

Posted by: eman at October 25, 2012 08:37 PM (+XD7n)

39 so md, de, nj?

Posted by: yankeefifth at October 25, 2012 08:39 PM (Z9EHQ)

eman, I really appreciate your spelling it mothers in law, instead of mother in laws. Thank you.

Posted by: kalneva is not edu-ma-cated, but knows proper English at October 25, 2012 08:40 PM (cQmXn)

41 Yeah, this is gonna be fun. See Brendan Loy's latest at PJM: How Hurricane Sandy Could Seriously Disrupt the Election http://pjmedia.com/weathernerd/2012/10/25/ hurricane-sandy-could-seriously-disrupt-the-election/ Sheesh. Talk about a "perfect storm".

Posted by: rickl at October 25, 2012 08:40 PM (sdi6R)

The map is green. What does that mean? Is Jill Stein winning the east coast and mid-atlantic regions?

Speaking of party colors, what color is the Libertarian Party?

Posted by: confused by color maps at October 25, 2012 08:41 PM (Q2wni)

43 So... I'm supposed to fly out of Newark Tuesday. And it's looking like that's not going to happen. Any idea how long I should wait to reschedule... or when would be early enough to leave to avoid this? :\

Posted by: thisheavenlyhell at October 25, 2012 08:42 PM (+ydyU)

44 Why are there no red states on that map? And why is the Atlantic Ocean going for Obama?

Posted by: this map disturbs me at October 25, 2012 08:43 PM (Q2wni)

45 @43 Why are you asking us? Why not check with the Weather Bureau? What, you think we're weather forecasters here on this late night thread?

Posted by: Not a weatherman at October 25, 2012 08:46 PM (Q2wni)

46 My advice -as a Texan- is to prepare now so that when you panic later you won't feel like such a loser. Who wants to die feeling like chump?
When things look bad, its important for you to remember that no one gives a crap about you more than YOU- prepare accordingly.

Posted by: CozMark at October 25, 2012 08:46 PM (gYPAF)

47 I need my rest. We'll see how it turns out and deal with it later. But wake me if they change my tee-time.

Posted by: President Gutsy Call at October 25, 2012 08:46 PM (uyAeF)

48 Why are you asking us? Why not check with the Weather Bureau? What, you think we're weather forecasters here on this late night thread?

Yes.

Posted by: thisheavenlyhell at October 25, 2012 08:48 PM (+ydyU)

49 All of the models now say that Sandy will make landfall in the Northeast. They just disagree on where. http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201218_ensmodel.gif Time to stock up on popcorn and bottled water.

Posted by: rickl at October 25, 2012 08:50 PM (sdi6R)

50 The map is green. What does that mean?

I think it means we're good to go.

Posted by: DW's crew chief at October 25, 2012 08:51 PM (hO9ad)

51 Truman, since grumpy momma bear lives in north Texas the mean green was a pretty good guess. But I'm guessin' that this year, just like everyone who is anyone, she's pullin' for those K-State Wildcats.

Posted by: teej says go K-State at October 25, 2012 08:52 PM (QbKVX)

52 This "storm" is an Alien mothership's cloak.

Posted by: eman at October 25, 2012 08:53 PM (+XD7n)

53 Tropical systems take the path of least resistance. They tend to thrive under high pressure and get torn apart by areas of low pressure

This confoozles me. I thought storms were low pressure areas caused by gay marriage. Would more low pressure feed the storm?

Posted by: fluffy, Masshole at October 25, 2012 08:54 PM (z9HTb)

54 Thanks Truman !!!!! Any rain will be much appreciated !!!!! But seriously ya'll stay safe please !!!!!!! Will be keeping all the East coast Horde in my prayers

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 25, 2012 08:54 PM (VHvdm)

55 Oh the humanity!!! I just saw the hurricane fling a 30 foot great white out of the ocean into a grocery store parking lot where it just ate a little old lady stocking up on batteries and water... oh, oh God, now the shark's being mauled by a polar bear lured down by the Nor'easter part of this perfect storm.

It's the end of the world... it's the end of the world!!!!!11!!!!eleventy!!1!!!!

Posted by: Biff Buffington -- Weatherman Extraordinaire at October 25, 2012 08:54 PM (c+Ph2)

So is this gonna be real or just another media beat-up?

Posted by: AussieMarcus at October 25, 2012 08:55 PM (dJDiO)

57 Darwin will be very busy the several days.

Posted by: eman at October 25, 2012 08:55 PM (+XD7n)

49All of the models now say that Sandy will make landfall in the Northeast. They just disagree on where.

I like to keep them guessing.

Posted by: Sandy Fluke, the tease at October 25, 2012 08:56 PM (Q2wni)

59 My daughters are in MA. Tomorrow I will warn them to not tempt fate.

Posted by: eman at October 25, 2012 08:56 PM (+XD7n)

60 Good news, NEasterners....there's a free shitload of blow headed your way. The bad news is, your gonna have to take it via anal suppository.

/snark mode off. Seriously, if it looks bad there is no shame in running. Have a plan to head inland 24 hours in advance if you are in any sort of dangerous position residence wise.

Posted by: GnuBreed at October 25, 2012 08:58 PM (ccXZP)

61 I've had it. New Jersey shall be clean once more. Even Newark, but don't hold me to that.

Posted by: Gaia at October 25, 2012 08:58 PM (+XD7n)

62 They named a hurricane after me! Wear your rubbers. It's gonna be a wet one!

Posted by: Sandy Fluke at October 25, 2012 08:59 PM (Q2wni)

63 It's the end of the world... it's the end of the world!!!!!11!!!!eleventy!!1!!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY

Posted by: rickl at October 25, 2012 09:02 PM (sdi6R)

6 They make some caulking specifically for foundations. I used it on one I have.

Sorry haven't read all the comments yet if someone already answered this.

Posted by: Infidel at October 25, 2012 09:04 PM (prnik)

65 28 Funny. This week has reminded me of why people love New England. Beautiful foliage, cool but not cold, clear skies... And then this weekend is going to remind me why I want to live in Texas. Momma bear, what football team do you root for? The Mean Green, or what? Well concerning college football , my nix says it all ... I am a Baylor momma bear and bleed green and gold ....our son is a junior at Baylor .... It is an Awesome university I wish I could have gone there .... And Thank God for Academic scholarships , my son earned his way there with great grades and test scores !!!!! Now concerning professional football my heart follows our quarterback RG3 !!!!! My son met RG3 and got his autograph ....great guy !!!!!

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 25, 2012 09:04 PM (VHvdm)

66 Philly, this is your wake up call. Do the right thing...or else.

Posted by: God at October 25, 2012 09:05 PM (g92Vv)

67 Flew out of Orlando today. Not too bad. We return tomorrow. Flying some of the Bain Capital boys. I'll be your moron hurricane hunter if ya like.

Posted by: Hawker Flyer at October 25, 2012 09:08 PM (+pj3X)

My fifteen minutes of fame ain't over yet!

Posted by: Hurricane Sandy Fluke at October 25, 2012 09:08 PM (Q2wni)

69 Momma, I'm so glad your son is going to such a great school, and the football team isn't a glorified FCS squad like my poor BC Eagles... Every ten years or so, the stars align and we have a good team. This ain't our year! Seriously thinking about rooting for UMass now that they're FBS. Geographically, they're closer.

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 09:16 PM (CsFxV)

wierd...the 10 day forecast calls form sunny high of 84 every day

waikiki, gotta love it

Posted by: navycopjoe has an iphone5 and you don't at October 25, 2012 09:17 PM (SFFoI)

71 Not too bad in Palm Beach yet. Breezy, and scattered rain all day, but not howling.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 25, 2012 09:18 PM (g92Vv)

72 But I'm a big fan of college football in general. It's a much more interesting game than pro ball even if the talent isn't uniformly high. Option and running in general are more viable offenses, the formations are more varied, the defenses are more varied (but usually less complicated), I love the wider hash marks. I only wish they would go back to the old system where ties were allowed. College overtime is silly.

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 09:19 PM (CsFxV)

73 I am really enjoying K-State's offensive system. Klein is a beast. I love the Pistol. Love read option, love his ability to pre-snap read and then audible properly.

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 09:21 PM (CsFxV)

74 The two wide on the weak side, pistol with the H back to the strong side, that's such a versatile formation. Almost as good as the spread, and better for a big quarterback who can read defenses. If you watch the Redskins, their offense is almost identical to K-State's.

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 09:23 PM (CsFxV)

75 Yeah, I could talk to myself about offensive formations and philosophies all night.

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 09:25 PM (CsFxV)

76 And maybe I will when the storm hits.

Posted by: Truman North at October 25, 2012 09:25 PM (CsFxV)

77 Yeah, I could talk to myself about offensive formations and philosophies all night.

Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2012 01:25 AM

Well, I'm listening, so it's not a complete waste of time.

Posted by: otho at October 25, 2012 09:28 PM (yBF/9)

78 Truman , I agree. There is something so wonderful about going to a college football game ...the marching bands , everything is so much better than Pro ball . And you can't beat a college homecoming game !!!! Ours is next weekend !!!! My elderly dad is More of a college basketball fan and every game he repeats how he does not like the possession arrow " there should be more jump balls " he says . Again I agree that college sports are much better than pro !!!!!

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 25, 2012 09:28 PM (VHvdm)

Look at it as an opportunity to re-read some Douglas Adams. Truman.

Posted by: garrett at October 25, 2012 09:29 PM (aswJc)

80 Yeah, I could talk to myself about offensive formations and philosophies all night.

Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2012 01:25 AM (CsFxV)

And maybe I will when the storm hits.

Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2012 01:25 AM (CsFxV)

It's a blog. There's always someone reading.

Posted by: Methos at October 25, 2012 09:29 PM (hO9ad)

81 And I think k state is going to take the Big 12 this year . They are doing really well !!!!

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 25, 2012 09:30 PM (VHvdm)

82 I peacefully hope you all die. Live from Arab Spring Heights

Posted by: Mohamed Abdul Muhamed Mohomed at October 25, 2012 09:33 PM (/A1Rb)

83 Hey Mohamed..... There's someone named Sandy who is looking for you , so go stand on a pier off the jersey shore and by the weekend she should be there to give you a Big hug and kiss !!!!! Have fun

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 25, 2012 09:40 PM (VHvdm)

84 If only we had more old timey pirates, me hearties!

Posted by: Pastafarian at October 25, 2012 09:41 PM (sZTYJ)

85 Ringo, the hardest pirate 'o 'em all, sez:

It Don't Come Easy

http://youtu.be/jZfAik7wP8U

Posted by: derit at October 25, 2012 09:44 PM (I88Jc)

86 Night all !!!!! And stay safe and God Bless !!!!!

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 25, 2012 09:46 PM (VHvdm)

I work for FEMA and live on the west coast. We were told to get ready to travel east very soon. Dammit! This will be the second Thanksgiving in a row that I will miss. Last year it was Irene and i got stuck in G** D***ed Maryland!

I hate the northeast, particularly the winters.

Posted by: Log Cabin at October 25, 2012 09:46 PM (JV/H0)

88 My BiL and his wife live on Long Island in the Bahamas. Sandy went right over them. Waiting for word, but they probably won't have power for a while.

Posted by: Meremortal at October 25, 2012 09:47 PM (jTKU5)

89 Katrina survivor here- inland survivor, and multiple tornado survivor. Over the years, between hurricanes, and epic tornados, we have learned so much from others over how to get ready for things such as Sandy. It never fails that I will read a suggestion, and it was something I had forgotten, or in the rush to prepare, had overlooked. So please do not take this list as if I am presuming any of you East Coasters do not know how to deal with a Sandy, but rather as a friendly, "please do not forget" deal. Generator advice, do not forget how long your generator runs before needing to do the whole oil, and oil filter change/add. Ours can run I think around 70 hours or so before all that is required. And ditto to checking it now, and not later when TSHTF. We had a few scares this summer, and found some extension cords that will carry the full power load to whatever you are trying to run on the generator, no matter the distance between the thing that needs power, and the generator. I think the hubby got them at Lowe's. And he got a carbon monoxide detector to add to our others to make sure if the power went down we were safe. Tarps-get them while you can. You East Coasters have those gorgeous, enormous, forever tall trees that go major boom on your loverly homes. Roofing nails, wood screws, plywood, and strong industrial tape for windows. After Katrina, and our tornado adventures- ($55K damage 9 years back), we learned to have at least 5 clean tarps ready for inside in case we had to cover furniture, floors, walls, or windows. Ice chests for frig, or freezers. You would have thought between our three families we would have had enough, but no. If you can now, put plastic containers full of water in them in the freezer to make large blocks of ice you can use for drinks, or keeping food cool longer. Some people put water bottles in the freezer in order to keep the freezer cool for longer. Some people have wrapped their freezers in newspapers. Of course down here, keeping things cool is way more difficult even at this time of the year than it is for most of you farther North. With Katrina, and Rita we had shit tons of water, and at the time did not have a water purifier. With zero power, we did not get the radios up, and running in time to catch the boil water alert. We had purchased cases of water ahead of the storm, but we still were washing dishes, and making tea and coffee with water we had not purified. Bass Pro and Wal-Mart should have something to help out with that. We have a Berkey now, but Katadyns are great as well. Don't forget to check your first aid kits, (put one in your car in case you are out during the storm), and make sure all your Rx's are filled ahead of time. I have major migraines, and usually have my meds in my purse, my travel bathroom bag, and some in our bathroom. Last weekend, I did not check to make sure I had them, went to the in-laws, got major migraine, and did not have one bit of meds to take. With possible broken windows, or cut hands over working with slippery things, be sure to have some Quikclot on hand. What condition are your chainsaws in? Brother-in-law was in the Tuscaloosa, AL tornado, and thank goodness had just had his worked on. If you have little ones still at home, or might possibly end up with some via family members, be ready for some activities to entertain for long periods of time. Crayons, paint with water, glue sticks, card games, coloring books, construction paper, or even Battleship, (LOL!) might have to be rediscovered by the Wii generation. Who knows, reading might come back in style for some of the youth during this storm? Batteries of all sizes. Our weather radio calls for a 9V, and we seem to always forget to have an extra one on hand. We love LED stuff because they last forever. Or so it seems, and they give off pretty good light. With my sister's kids, there is no way I would have a candle, or kerosene lantern in the house. Love them, but they are absolute terrors. No difference between indoors, or out of doors actions. They are constantly running. LOL! We have hardwood flooring, and they have carpet, and so they are forever crashing into something here. Waterproof, and windproof lighters. Charge your cordless drills. Our friends on the MS Gulf Coast list this as one of the first things they do. From pre-prepping, all the way to someone having a busted window, they really use their drills a bunch. We have three lithium batteries, and two chargers for our Ryobi drills, lights, saws, blower, etc. stuff. We have a gas range top, but also a Coleman back up in case there is no natural gas for the range. I also have a solar oven that can also run off the converter which hooks up to the car, and my Dad has a Coleman oven he cooks in when he goes hunting. After Katrina, there was not a loaf of bread to be had for at least a week. It was nice to be able to bake our own, and not have to worry about it. I now have emergency, quick and easy to make recipes, and I keep them in a specific section of my cooking notebook. Storms have a way of being chaotic both inside and out, and with everyone looking at me as to what we were going to eat, I learned to make sure I was not having to fumble around for what I might need. I have no doubt most of you have already done most of what I have mentioned, and are not newbies in dealing with storms. This one looks really nasty, and we will be praying for you guys both on the Coast, and inland. Katrina killed I think 22 people in Ohio due to flooding, and tornados. Please be safe, and know other fellow Americans will be very much aware of what you could be facing.

Posted by: freeus at October 25, 2012 09:55 PM (caDgg)

90 Joe Bastardi was calling for a sub 940mb storm (about the strength of Hurricane Hugo!) sitting on top of Dover, DE on Monday evening. He thinks it will track West of what is currently the official NOAA track.

Posted by: crosspatch at October 25, 2012 09:58 PM (ZbLJZ)

91 Autocorrect keeps turning clusterfuck into 'cluster duck' Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2012 12:15 AM (CsFxV) Could be worse... http://youtu.be/irgJPqkuakM

Posted by: Disco Duck at October 25, 2012 09:59 PM (sZTYJ)

92 SO STILL NO GLOBAL WARMING EH DENIERS?

*SPIT*

Posted by: KayInMaine at October 25, 2012 10:02 PM (/Aauo)

93 Bastardi's tweets (@BigJoeBastardi):

No-Gaps consistant with itself and ECMWF with landfall southern Delmarva and march nw to Boalsburg Pa, home of the Boalsburg cow.. and me

So spread before ECMWF is Canadian in Maine, with GFS and UKMET at NYC.Amazing seeing No gaps with ECMWF so far. Poor scoring model

ECMWF takes storm as far west as 78.7... its done that for 8 straight runs now . Back down to 950 mb by 30 hrs as ne drift starts

If hurricane pulls GFDL then will be at parents with Garrett.Since he was 5 he wanted to ride out a hurricane with grandpa

Posted by: crosspatch at October 25, 2012 10:03 PM (ZbLJZ)

94 This has nothing to do with global warming. Hurricane Hazel in 1954 was an October storm. too. This just happens from time to time.

Posted by: crosspatch at October 25, 2012 10:04 PM (ZbLJZ)

95 So the east coast gets some sandy in their clits and us in vegas give a fuck why? Posted by: Modgi at October 26, 2012 12:24 AM (3xuDv) Aren't you betting on the track it takes? 2:1 odd on if it is being sent by God to smite Congress...

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 25, 2012 10:04 PM (sZTYJ)

96 And we have had November hurricanes all the way back into the 1800's and 1700's.

Storms are driven by convection. Convection is driven by temperature differential. There are two ways to get it. You either warm up the water or you cool down upper air to get a big difference in temperature that causes the air to rise. At this time of year the gulf stream is still rather warm. Currently it is about 80F. It takes a long time for it to cool down compared to the atmosphere. The air aloft has already started cooling down. So there is a huge temperature difference. This storm is going to take advantage of the relative difference in temperature between a relatively warm ocean and a relatively cold upper atmosphere.

Posted by: crosspatch at October 25, 2012 10:09 PM (ZbLJZ)

97 hi, thank you for the report, appreciate it. Is this going to be like the perfect storm, or worse? The north and south forks of Long Island were destroyed, no power for two weeks with that storm. Most everyone had no power for at least two days. NY recently switched to electronic voting, does anyone know what they plan to do if people can't vote on election day?

Posted by: What do you do all day if you don't watch tv, anne? at October 25, 2012 10:10 PM (oZfic)

98 Philly, being about 60 miles inland, probably wouldn't get a direct hit unless the storm comes right up Delaware Bay and the river.

The biggest danger we have is flooding, because our people have a bizarre and nasty habit of using the street sewers as trash cans. Hopefully Mayor Squidward will have the school buses ready to evacuate!

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at October 25, 2012 10:14 PM (yJYwC)

99 93 SO STILL NO GLOBAL WARMING EH DENIERS?

*SPIT*

Posted by: KayInMaine at October 26, 2012 02:02 AM (/Aauo)

Hey crazy bitch! How are you?

Hurricanes have been around since the earth was formed. It's called "Hurricane Season" for a reason, hurricanes occur during it. Hurricanes were happening even before "globull warming" was even an idea in the socialists global redistribution schemes.

Posted by: MrCaniac at October 25, 2012 10:22 PM (Zd/NW)

100 Hopefully Mayor Squidward will have the school buses ready to evacuate!

Now that's just crazy talk.

Posted by: Ray N. at October 25, 2012 10:38 PM (hO9ad)

101 "Philly, being about 60 miles inland, probably wouldn't get a direct hit unless the storm comes right up Delaware Bay and the river."

That is exactly what Joe Bastardi was thinking it will do today. We'll see how it looks tomorrow. It's his "Philadelphia Story" scenario.

Posted by: crosspatch at October 25, 2012 10:48 PM (ZbLJZ)

102 Boat out of the water, so no problem there. Warm enough not to worry about heat, only concern would be refrigerator if power is lost. Maybe I'll get a chance to try out the oil lamps I purchased after Irene last year! Candles just weren't cutting it for reading in bed...

Posted by: Buddy Bizarre at October 25, 2012 11:31 PM (sqGUm)

103 Good luck ya' East Coast Morons. Be safe.

Posted by: 98ZJUSMC in Johnson County laughing at Cook County at October 26, 2012 12:27 AM (YiG1q)

104 That green swirl thingy is on top of my house. Is that bad?

Posted by: itsatax at October 26, 2012 12:32 AM (7RBBe)

105 2 Remembering Agnes of 1972 Posted by: Neo at October 26, 2012 12:03 AM (e8kgV) Remembering Agnes from 1978. http://tinyurl.com/cl5hn7x I will be in my bunk until 1030Hrs. Do Not Disturb. Do not wake for morning chow. If you blow reveille, I will kill you. That is all.

Posted by: 98ZJUSMC in Johnson County laughing at Cook County at October 26, 2012 12:40 AM (YiG1q)

106 100 93 SO STILL NO GLOBAL WARMING EH DENIERS? *SPIT* Hey...woah....watch the Serum transferable diseases there, bitch. Keep the 40 or 50 your scuzzy bag of flesh contains to yourself, uh? A little consideration. Some of us are trying to fap undisturbed. Thanks.......Carry on.

Posted by: 98ZJUSMC in Johnson County laughing at Cook County at October 26, 2012 12:51 AM (YiG1q)

107 Hurricane Preparedness ( and general "bad times" links ) various FR links & stories | 10-23-05 | the heavy equipment guy Link in my nick...

Posted by: backhoe™ at October 26, 2012 12:58 AM (ULH4o)

108 I wonder which tree I will lose this time?

Posted by: Jean at October 26, 2012 12:59 AM (g2ldK)

109

East coast pussies. Its gonna rain. So what? Weather jocks are FOS these days. Worst storm in 100 years? Again? Come on, we had this one last year too.

Seriously, stay safe. I've seen it rain sideways at 120MPH at East Intercourse Island in 1976. Not too much fun.

Posted by: ExPat Patriot at October 26, 2012 01:03 AM (MpHgn)

110 anybody know how to delay this thing for 1 week?

Posted by: razor419 at October 26, 2012 01:22 AM (lFTdA)

111 Hope all of you guys in the zone make it out all right. You and your property.

Posted by: D. R. Ainbough at October 26, 2012 01:33 AM (3ziXJ)

112 What 112 said. I pray this all turns out to be just another storm.

Posted by: Otis Criblecoblis at October 26, 2012 02:09 AM (IlZPo)

113 Well, I hope everyone comes thru it okay, but...given the amount of hype this thing is already getting from the usual suspects, I predict it'll mostly be a big nothingburger. (shrug) Prepare, sure, but you ought to be up on disaster preparedness all the time, not just when the Weather Channel is trying to pump up its ratings.

Posted by: davidinvirginia at October 26, 2012 02:17 AM (qEkGZ)

114

Looks like it is not going to be a fun next several deays here in the Philly area. And most of our family lives in NJ within 5 miles of the Atlantic. Time to get a generator (if there are any left) and be prepared for some time without power. If this thing goes up the Delaware Bay, the damage will be catastrophic.

Posted by: tofer732 at October 26, 2012 02:22 AM (m5Iwq)

115 Live Sandy thread at my old stomping grounds: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2950039/posts

Posted by: backhoe™ at October 26, 2012 02:27 AM (ULH4o)

116 Please don't think that you are safe just because you are not directly on the coast. These storms can cause terrible damage and tornadoes a hundred miles inland.

Posted by: lan sing at October 26, 2012 02:42 AM (ennDW)

117 Please don't think that you are safe just because you are not directly on the coast

Once in a while one of these storms travels up Chesapeake Bay and clobbers Baltimore and points west. Sorry to disappoint the kids for Halloween but I think I'll stop on the way home tonight and buy up all the bread and toilet paper at the local grocery store.

Posted by: Retread at October 26, 2012 02:55 AM (zxitI)

118 Why this storm could be nasty... Trees, trees, trees. The trees in this area of SE Pa still have a large amount of leaves on them, which will create a large surface area for the wind to rock back and forth. First from the east, then as the storm retreats, from the west. A large amount of rainfall will soften the ground and some will become uprooted and crash to the ground, taking utility lines with them. Power outages in my neck of the woods usually require 2 to 3 days to repair, in small scale events. I could foresee the power being out for an entire week in some areas if a large portion of Maryland, Delaware, and Pennsylvania gets socked. If you're in the area and can use a chain saw, clear your own road so that utility crews can quickly focus on the power lines. Be nice and clear the road in front of your neighbor, even if they're a liberal. You know they're helpless and won't lift a finger. Don't destroy your vehicles engine and face a couple thousand dollar repair bill by driving into deep water. You'll only block the road for police, fire, and repair crews. If you must drive, think ahead and plan a route through the 'high' road, even if it takes longer.

Preparation... Water, water, water. Food that can be eaten without cooking. Think fruit... banana, oranges, grapefruit, apples, etc. Prepare to lose the use of your refrigerator and look at the food that is in it now. Anything expensive you could eat in the next two days? From experience I can tell you that within 24 hours, stuff in the freezer is useless.

Outside: Lawn chairs, tables, anything that can get blown around will get blown around. Stack chairs together then put them on their sides then tie them to something secure, you really don't want to go running around outside to retrieve a table in high winds and torrential rain. Blow your gutters out if they're full of leaves.

Looks like I know what I'm doing today.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 26, 2012 03:03 AM (feFL6)

119 Apropos of nothing, HF has a 3200W generator on sale for under 3 bills. http://is.gd/HCspqp

Posted by: toby928© at October 26, 2012 03:12 AM (QupBk)

120 But...but...but...Halloween!!!

Posted by: trainer can see the Atlantic from his house at October 26, 2012 03:48 AM (QbdUW)

121

This can't be any worse for Connecticut than last year's surprise snow storm that left many without power for 2 plus weeks. I had power at home, but no one around us did and we were out at work for over a week. Every morning I would go in and fire up the generator and hook up the computer so I could do payroll and stuff. It was kinda fun except that I lost some really nice large bushes in my backyard that provided a nice privacy fence, with the leaves still on the tress the snow just weighed them down so much. I went out as soon as it was over and shook off as much snow as I could, but the damage was already done.

Also, another good reason to not buy Halloween candy.

Posted by: Jaimo at October 26, 2012 04:12 AM (9U1OG)

122 It seems the people behind the Hurricane Machine are pulling for Romney. No chance he looses PA if there is a hurricane sitting on top of Philly on election day. Glad to see even they abandoned Obama after how they treated Bush.

Posted by: Dave in NH at October 26, 2012 04:47 AM (UKxqq)

123 Having lived through Katrina here at the Land Mass between Louisiana and Florida and suffering through the hilarious drama and mass hysteria from weather people that every storm system now produces, I am inspired to start a Facebook page called Dramatic Hurricane Sandy Updates. May do that today.

Posted by: stacy at October 26, 2012 04:48 AM (bKOZG)

124 Speaking of party colors, what color is the Libertarian Party?

Posted by: confused by color maps at October 26, 2012 12:41 AM (Q2wni)

-----------------------------------------------------------

The Libertarian Party believes that individuals should be free to choose a color for themselves, and not have it imposed upon them by a central authority.

Posted by: Banana at October 26, 2012 04:49 AM (+/C3g)

125 Off, darn sock!

Posted by: Virginia SoCon at October 26, 2012 04:50 AM (+/C3g)

126 Breezy here this am on the lovely and talented Space Coast, but supposed to get ugly as the day goes on. Got all the usual hurricane supplies, the cable's working and I have plenty of the "good stuff". Even the kids are more or less behaving. Stay safe, morons!!

Posted by: bigpinkfluffybunny at October 26, 2012 05:00 AM (1Ialr)

127 Okay I am being very serious here. Is anyone else worried about how this plays out in the election? Conventional wisdom indicates early voters lean left, whereas Romney voters will likely vote on election day. IF there is so much damage, flooding, power outages, possibly a week later, doesn't that mean that there could be a lot of people not able to get out to the voting booths? So, wouldn't early voters, and thus Obama have an advantage? I am looking at states like Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania that could be affected by this storm that I am worried will go blue because of this situation.

Posted by: Tickled Pink at October 26, 2012 05:21 AM (pEcvk)

128 Miss Sandy is almost even with my coast here in Floriduh. Packing high winds, loud surf, and bands of rain. Nothing that unusual for us except the time of year. Bigfluffybunny you must be pretty close to my bunker!

Please encourage Romney/Ryan voters to vote early in the states impacted.

Stay safe and get ready now if you are in her path. Never hurts to be ready, sayeth Dame Christy of Florida who is always ready for the worst.

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned, ready to get this done at October 26, 2012 05:33 AM (baL2B)

129 I am inspired to start a Facebook page called Dramatic Hurricane Sandy Updates. May do that today.

Posted by: stacy at October 26, 2012 08:48 AM (bKOZG)

Stacy, please make sure to feature Shep on FOX. He was getting worked up last night.

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned, ready to get this done at October 26, 2012 05:35 AM (baL2B)

130 Is anyone else worried about how this plays out in the election? No. Can you change anything about it? If not, where there is no choice, there's no problem. Don't borrow trouble. It unbalances the humors.

Posted by: toby928© for TB at October 26, 2012 05:38 AM (evdj2)

131 Hint: wherever Jim Cantore goes first you will be safe. This is a proven fact for Florida. Sort of like squirrels gathering acorns and hairy caterpillars predicting winter.

Also, Stacy of Land Mass between Florida and LA...I love Mississippi and am a native. Y'all rock.

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned, ready to get this done at October 26, 2012 05:40 AM (baL2B)

132 35 I, for one have stocked up on horses, bayonets, and these ships that actually go under water, just in case this scenario actually arose.

Posted by: Preezy up in ur debeezy at October 26, 2012 12:35 AM (3xuDv)

This is why I keep reading moron comments...

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned, ready to get this done at October 26, 2012 05:44 AM (baL2B)

133 PA doesn't have early voting, and the deadline for absentee ballots passed last week.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at October 26, 2012 06:29 AM (5tpzF)

134 43 So... I'm supposed to fly out of Newark Tuesday. And it's looking like that's not going to happen. Any idea how long I should wait to reschedule... or when would be early enough to leave to avoid this? :\

Posted by: thisheavenlyhell at October 26, 2012 12:42 AM (+ydyU)

The airline won't cancel the flight until a day or so before schedule. In my case, a flight was canceled due to flooding and alligators and snakes on runway due from tropical storm.

If you cancel in advance you will be credited for flight but have to pay an additional fee. I'd wait or leave Sunday if you haven't paid for ticket in advance. Sandy can and will change cone of impact. Or not.

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned, ready to get this done at October 26, 2012 06:56 AM (baL2B)

135 Meh, seeing Blue Oyster Cult in NYC Sunday night.

Posted by: SFGoth at October 26, 2012 07:17 AM (dZ756)

136 ChristyBlinky, howdy neighbor!! The real fun starts tonight, from what I've heard. Sure hope it's over by the morning, I wanna go vote tomorrow....

Posted by: bigpinkfluffybunny at October 26, 2012 07:53 AM (1Ialr)

137 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at October 26, 2012 07:54 AM (6o4Fb)

138 Hmm, that might dampen (to coin a phrase) voter turnout in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Looks like God is voting.

Posted by: Tom Servo at October 26, 2012 08:09 AM (z9wd2)

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