October 31, 2012
— Ace NumberMuncher made a good point on Twitter, a general "I Call Bullshit" statement on the various polls showing Obama with big leads in Ohio, Virginia, and even North Carolina (!!!).
It's very simple: Swing states are swing states because neither party has much of a lead in the states. The outcome of any election, then, depends heavily on which way Independents vote.
A swing state is a swing state, basically, because the parties are tied there (basically, within a few points), and the Independents play tiebreaker.
Any state in which Obama loses Independents by six, eight, or ten points but somehow -- as these polls claims -- wins the state anyway are not "swing states," almost by definition.
We have a name for this category of states: We call them Safe Democratic states, where it really doesn't matter what Independents think because the Democratic majority is strong enough to carry the state in virtually any situation.
The welter of sillyass polls from Quinnippiac, CBS and the laughable PPP keep finding that Obama loses Independents, usually by six points or more, and yet Obama nevertheless triumphs.
I mean, for God's sake, this CBS/Qunnippiac poll has Romney up 21 points with Independents in Virginia but still has Obama winning!
Again, if this were the case, then they're not really swing states.
Sure, if Obama loses Independents by 21 points in Virginia he can win the state... if Virginia is Delaware.
But Virginia is not Delaware, and Ohio isn't Maryland, either.
Independents also provide an indirect but real indication of where soft Democrats and soft Republicans are leaning. When Independents side with Romney, you can be reasonably sure that soft Republicans (more inclined to vote for Romney than Independents) are also voting for Romney, and you can also hazard a guess that some soft Democrats are voting for Romney too.
Two vids swiped from Breitbart TV. First, Mark Halperin makes this point, and then Halperin asks David Axelrod if he thinks Obama's ahead with Independents, and asks him to explain why polls say Obama is behind.
Axelrod seems flummoxed.
Posted by: Ace at
10:51 AM
| Comments (263)
Post contains 354 words, total size 3 kb.
Posted by: jwest at October 31, 2012 10:56 AM (ZDsRL)
Posted by: Nate Silver! --Now with more extrapolation! at October 31, 2012 10:57 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: Truman North at October 31, 2012 10:59 AM (qPJ3b)
Posted by: fluffy at October 31, 2012 10:59 AM (3SvjA)
Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 11:00 AM (kXoT0)
I just don't see how Romney loses this. Posted by: Skags
At this point, it's not the vote Romney has to worry about. It's the question of whether the vote will be held, whether the election will be held up because of "weather," whether the riots will tip the balance in favor of recounts, etc.
I no longer fear cheating during the vote. Now it's about the cheating and flat-out lawlessness afterwards.
Posted by: imp at October 31, 2012 11:00 AM (UaxA0)
Posted by: Markos The Kos at October 31, 2012 11:00 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: CBS News Polling at October 31, 2012 11:01 AM (QKKT0)
Posted by: Dutch at October 31, 2012 11:01 AM (jKE+Z)
Posted by: Miss80sBaby at October 31, 2012 11:01 AM (YjDyJ)
Posted by: LASue at October 31, 2012 11:01 AM (gjIQF)
Illinois used to be a swing state. Texas was as well, not too long ago.
Swing states are swing states until they're not. What continues to be laughable is not the margin of these polls, but the fact that people think they represent reality.
Bronco Bama swung millions of people when he passed that healthcare obamanation. You think they forgot?
Posted by: BurtTC at October 31, 2012 11:01 AM (TOk1P)
Posted by: grognard at October 31, 2012 11:01 AM (NS2Mo)
Posted by: Joe "Rippin and Tearin" Biden at October 31, 2012 11:02 AM (vjyZP)
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 31, 2012 11:03 AM (F0K0r)
Posted by: soothsayer at October 31, 2012 11:03 AM (jUytm)
Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 11:03 AM (LpQbZ)
Posted by: jjshaka at October 31, 2012 11:03 AM (ziA+c)
Posted by: Truman North at October 31, 2012 11:03 AM (qPJ3b)
Posted by: Vic at October 31, 2012 11:03 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: Beagle at October 31, 2012 11:04 AM (sOtz/)
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at October 31, 2012 11:04 AM (f9c2L)
http://youtu.be/q-YUkh0slIo
Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at October 31, 2012 11:04 AM (DnLl2)
Make the hurting stop!!!
P.S. Tom Carper, the dickhead running for re-election for the US Senate, is running ads about how wonderful he is at building bridges and working with Republicans. I'm not about to delude myself that this miserable little state will get its head out of its ass, but it's interesting to note that even he wants to pretend that he's middle of the road.
Meanwhile, Mike Castle refuses to emerge from under his rock with his $4 million dollar war chest. That prick.
Posted by: Blue Hen at October 31, 2012 11:04 AM (UW6NX)
It's "people loved the Dems so much in 2008, they've decided to call the Dems their new, permanent home."
It's why the stupid polls still use 2008 weighting for party ID instead of the more realistic 2010.
That's what they are clinging to now.
IF there was any evidence this was so--ANY EVIDENCE--I would be worried. But poll after poll after poll of party ID shows the populace is more, far more, 2010 than 2008.
There is not one election since 2008, special, regular or otherwise, CD or larger that the Dems saw an increase in party ID over the previous cycle.
Posted by: RoyalOil at October 31, 2012 11:04 AM (imtbm)
Seriously, we've been pretty good. Can we not get that swapped with a Halloween cheerleader or two?
http://preview.tinyurl.com/aobp2ar
Posted by: Waterhouse at October 31, 2012 11:04 AM (w+lzM)
One more point, Ace. Independents are by definition people who can't decide between Republicans and Democrats. Another word for "people who can't decide" is, not surprisingly, "undecideds." So if Romney is ahead with independents who have decided, he is likely to win those likely voters who are actually undecided at this late date.
All of which leads me to the point that many others have made. If Obama is stuck at 47%, he's not going to miraculously get 50%. The undecideds may not have decided they like Romney, and they may not have decided that they are going to vote at all, but they have definitely decided they don't like Obama.
Posted by: The Regular Guy at October 31, 2012 11:04 AM (qHCyt)
Posted by: Gregg at October 31, 2012 11:04 AM (jKE+Z)
The implication was that the pollsters were weighting based on the historically low white voter participation. If it's closer to 76%, TFG is toast.
Grain of salt and all that though.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2012 11:05 AM (SY2Kh)
Posted by: kawfytawk at October 31, 2012 11:05 AM (JWLqy)
))))
Hi hiPosted by: Truman North at October 31, 2012 11:05 AM (qPJ3b)
Posted by: Othered at October 31, 2012 11:06 AM (EuW9O)
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/b][/i][/u] at October 31, 2012 11:06 AM (4df7R)
Dare I google that at work???
Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 31, 2012 11:07 AM (wtvvX)
Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, VT at October 31, 2012 11:07 AM (48wze)
Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 11:08 AM (+paCV)
Posted by: Baghdad joncelli at October 31, 2012 11:08 AM (CWlPF)
Is the point that Ohio ISN'T actually a swing state anymore (which would explain an Obama victory) or that the polls giving Obama the edge cannot be accurate because Ohio IS a swing state?
Posted by: Kensington at October 31, 2012 11:08 AM (znT2j)
Posted by: Mo the Girl at October 31, 2012 11:09 AM (cAqkh)
Posted by: kawfytawk at October 31, 2012 11:09 AM (JWLqy)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows he is Eric Blair at October 31, 2012 11:09 AM (AZGON)
No one should have to look at photos of Axelrodent after seeing that photo of Helen Thomas on the main page. It qualifies as cruel and unusual punishment.
Posted by: USMC8541 at October 31, 2012 11:09 AM (v3pYe)
Posted by: Spike at October 31, 2012 11:09 AM (wtnmC)
Posted by: Vic at October 31, 2012 03:03 PM (YdQQY)
---------------------------------------
So do I. These worthless polls are still trying desparately to use 2008 models. Plus, all you anal poll watchers. Look around. I mean really look around. What do you see?
Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 11:09 AM (7qi+1)
52 We're gonna look pretty stupid if all of these polls are right.
See Taleb, The Black Swan, chapter entitled "The Scandal of Prediction." Political pundits and pollsters are notoriously not much better than random guys off the street in predicting elections. Forget them. Believe your own eyes. More Romney signs, more Romney energy, no one talking about "hope and change" at work, etc. Did you have that feeling in 2008? No? Then 2012 ain't like 2008, period.
Posted by: The Regular Guy at October 31, 2012 11:10 AM (qHCyt)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 31, 2012 11:10 AM (+tqYo)
Posted by: Blue Falcon in Boston Channeling Catholic Joe Biden at October 31, 2012 11:10 AM (KCvsd)
0bama: "You did fine."
http://tinyurl.com/d5pjhjb
Posted by: Public Service Announcement at October 31, 2012 11:10 AM (feFL6)
Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 11:11 AM (f95vc)
Getting sick of:
1)D+9 polls
2)Showing Obama winning but below 50%
3) And Romney winning Indies by HIGH double-digits.
When I see them, I keep hearing My Cousin Vinny:
"Everything that guy said is bullshit"
Posted by: PelosiSchmelosi at October 31, 2012 11:11 AM (epFGF)
Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 11:12 AM (f95vc)
The second. Ohio elected a Republican governor in 2010. Obama won it by less than he won the national election in 2008.
Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at October 31, 2012 11:12 AM (DnLl2)
Posted by: joncelli at October 31, 2012 11:12 AM (CWlPF)
Now that's the Mary Clogginstein I've come to know & love!!
Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 31, 2012 11:12 AM (wtvvX)
Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 11:12 AM (+paCV)
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 11:12 AM (nTgAI)
Posted by: Jollyroger at October 31, 2012 11:12 AM (t06LC)
Beware the Mesopotamian "Fist of Anger" that can leave a mark...
Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 11:13 AM (f95vc)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 31, 2012 11:14 AM (+tqYo)
66
You hit the nail squarely on its head.
I believe my own eyes, not what some pollster, Axel-twat or Nate Silver says.
All that 2010 excitement did not just vanish in two years.
Romney with a big win.
Posted by: PelosiSchmelosi at October 31, 2012 11:14 AM (epFGF)
Ineed another poll besides Rasmussen showing Rom up in OH to calm my right-leaning nerves.
Wasn't there another poll that showed Romney up by three in Ohio but everyone dismissed it?
**********
Yes, everyone dismissed this one by Rep pollster @TCJResearch showing R 50-47 with an even split: http://tinyurl.com/bm9k348
Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at October 31, 2012 11:15 AM (DQMcq)
Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 11:15 AM (f95vc)
Posted by: MJ at October 31, 2012 11:15 AM (TR60b)
59 -
Unfortunately for Ace, he decided to jump on the poller-coaster months ago, so he doesn't seem to feel it's appropriate to jump off now. Which means he's going to need plenty of Tums between now and this Tuesday.
Posted by: BurtTC at October 31, 2012 11:15 AM (TOk1P)
There is one HUGE caveat that needs to be mentioned with Ohio and Virginia. Neither state has party registration. A huge margin for Romney with "independents" in those states may simply mean that people who are really Republicans and always vote Republican still identify themselves as "Independent" and declare themselves independent when they are polled. Remember. the Republican brand has been severely tarnished in the last 8 years and a lot of voters may simply not want to call themselves Republicans anymore in these states, because everyone is technically an Independent.
So it is certainly possible for Romney to have a luge lead among "independents" in a poll but be slightly behind in the head-to-head. And a D+5 sample might not be out of whack in these states either, not because Republican turnout is depressed, but because Republican identification is depressed.
I think both Ohio and Virginia could still go either way in this race and nobody should be surprised if Obama wins both of them, or Romney does.
Posted by: rockmom at October 31, 2012 11:15 AM (NYnoe)
Posted by: Kensington at October 31, 2012 03:08 PM (znT2j)
The latter. As ace said, in a swing state the Democrat and Republican voting populations are relatively similar in size, such that no one side has an upper hand. Poll results for the two parties will come out fairly even. That means the indies are the tiebreaker. Whoever wins the indies generally "wins" the poll, because the indies weight the scale towards one candidate.
For Obama to LOSE the independent vote by a sizable margin, often by 6+ points, but still somehow "win" the poll means that something is screwy in the poll. Otherwise it would mean that Democrat voters are more prevalent in the state, since you'd need more Dems to cancel out the independents. This would mean it's not a swing state; it's a blue state.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/b][/i][/u] at October 31, 2012 11:15 AM (4df7R)
See Taleb, The Black Swan, chapter entitled "The Scandal of Prediction." Political pundits and pollsters are notoriously not much better than random guys off the street in predicting elections. Forget them. Believe your own eyes. More Romney signs, more Romney energy, no one talking about "hope and change" at work, etc. Did you have that feeling in 2008? No? Then 2012 ain't like 2008, period.
Posted by: The Regular Guy at October 31, 2012 03:10 PM (qHCyt)
Taleb you bastard, I read your book !
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 11:15 AM (nTgAI)
Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 31, 2012 11:15 AM (wtvvX)
There's what, one or two special elections the Dems have won in that time? But, go back and look. As I recall, the ones they won were in heavy D districts but were still competitive for the R. (And there is the NY one, with the R endorsing the D, thanks Newt.)
Then look at 2010--why would those who voted R as the GOP made all CD campaigns an Obamacare referendum suddenly turn now and vote for Obamacare?
I hate to sound all "keep it together, we can still win" bluster like we were pumping in 2008 but this is some BS.
We are dying by these polls from sources we know lie to us about everything else.
Posted by: RoyalOil at October 31, 2012 11:16 AM (imtbm)
Was just watching FNC report on hurricane damage. For the life of me I can't see the massive destruction that the news is reporting.
Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 11:16 AM (7qi+1)
You won't get one. You might try Xanax.
If all of us ripping these polls apart can't calm your nerves, then there is no hope for you. You will just have to wait for Election night.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 31, 2012 11:16 AM (USExO)
Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 11:16 AM (+paCV)
Posted by: rickb223 at October 31, 2012 11:16 AM (GFM2b)
Posted by: ace at October 31, 2012 11:16 AM (LCRYB)
VOTE!!!
We have 6 days left. Vote early if you can. Get your family, friends and colleagues out to vote.
If you know any Romney likely voter, ask them if they voted yet.
If you are like me, in a state w/o early voting; make a list of people to remind that they need to VOTE. And call them on Tuesday.
November 6th is the only poll that matters!
Posted by: Could you see the SNL skit? at October 31, 2012 11:17 AM (zLp5I)
Posted by: Othered at October 31, 2012 11:17 AM (EuW9O)
That's gotta be worth +5, at a bare minimum.
Posted by: Fritz at October 31, 2012 11:17 AM (/ZZCn)
Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, VT at October 31, 2012 03:07 PM (48wze)
You're gonna get the whole load!
Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 31, 2012 11:17 AM (1Jaio)
Shutup, you're blowing the illusion here.
I've having lots of fun buying up cheap NC to win shares on Intrade at only 80%. True odds there have to be greater than 98% in Romney's favor.
This is for what amounts to a 25% return on investment in only seven days.
Posted by: Looking closely at October 31, 2012 11:17 AM (6Q9g2)
I think the pachyderms even take the Senate.
Posted by: Binder Full of Big Bird at October 31, 2012 11:18 AM (mAm+G)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 31, 2012 11:18 AM (+tqYo)
Oh well. Wishful thinking I guess.
Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 31, 2012 11:18 AM (da5Wo)
Posted by: Blue Falcon in Boston Channeling Catholic Joe Biden at October 31, 2012 11:18 AM (KCvsd)
Posted by: rickb223 at October 31, 2012 11:18 AM (GFM2b)
Posted by: ace at October 31, 2012 11:19 AM (LCRYB)
I think the pachyderms even take the Senate.
Posted by: Binder Full of Big Bird at October 31, 2012 03:18 PM (mAm+G)
It depends where the close election is. Although he was an incumbent, you should ask Norm Coleman how that whole close election thing works out.
Posted by: Jollyroger at October 31, 2012 11:20 AM (t06LC)
You mean to tell me that the MFM would try something to sway voters? GTFO! No way.
Yep, I think it's bullshit too and a lame attempt to fire up the base. I really can't imagine that with less than a week to go that there are some that are still hmming and hawing. Romney has the momentum and basically after the first debate performance the preference cascade was on!
BTW I voted today!!!!!!!!! Damn it felt good!
Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 11:20 AM (X7wAM)
Posted by: Hillary's Middle Boob at October 31, 2012 11:20 AM (kl5rr)
I could deal with it for a while but it's like stink that just just keeps coming at you.
Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 11:20 AM (KXm42)
http://tinyurl.com/c2yjlyl
It's over in primetime, before the polls close on the west coast. The western states are won mostly because GOPers will vote in victory and Dems will stay home in defeat.
Posted by: bigpale at October 31, 2012 11:20 AM (TYGH7)
Posted by: logprof at October 31, 2012 11:20 AM (jKE+Z)
Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 11:21 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: Dave S. at October 31, 2012 11:21 AM (PNi9V)
Posted by: Lincolntf at October 31, 2012 11:21 AM (GeD0A)
"A huge margin for Romney with "independents" in those states may simply mean that people who are really Republicans and always vote Republican still identify themselves as "Independent" and declare themselves independent when they are polled. Remember. the Republican brand has been severely tarnished in the last 8 years and a lot of voters may simply not want to call themselves Republicans anymore in these states, because everyone is technically an Independent."
Wait...wouldn't that still put the ball in Romney's court? There are also a lot of people who lean "Democrat" but claim they are independent. It depends on who has the best ground game plus motivation to vote.
Posted by: Mo the Girl at October 31, 2012 11:21 AM (cAqkh)
Posted by: ace at October 31, 2012 03:19 PM (LCRYB)
Not to mention that aside from party ID there are more self proclaimed conservatives than liberals.Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 11:22 AM (X7wAM)
Posted by: logprof at October 31, 2012 03:20 PM (jKE+Z)
And it didn't win him a lot of love in NH either. Or Maine for that matter.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/b][/i][/u] at October 31, 2012 11:22 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 31, 2012 11:22 AM (+tqYo)
Posted by: Roy at October 31, 2012 11:23 AM (VndSC)
Google "Breezy Point" and NYC subways.
I'm in lower Manhattan. Believe me. The destruction is very real.
That station is full of scuba divers!
Posted by: Toure at October 31, 2012 11:23 AM (3SvjA)
Posted by: Spike at October 31, 2012 11:23 AM (wtnmC)
Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 11:23 AM (f95vc)
In 2008, there wasn't any discrepancy...Obama led on the important issues, he led among indies, and his base was more enthusiastic. Therefore, he led in both national and swing state polling. Flip the same advantages to Romney this time around, though, and AT BEST he's nominally ahead nationally, and down in some of these swing states. Something just doesn't compute. Either Dems are a lot more fired up than we think (and see in early voting data), or there's a glitch in the matrix...something is up here.
Posted by: Sick of polls at October 31, 2012 11:23 AM (gI9Bk)
@31: OK, I've heard of the Steamer, but the Bowtie is a new one to me.
Dare I google that at work???
Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 31, 2012 03:07 PM (wtvvX)
AoSHQ Rule #1......
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 31, 2012 11:23 AM (TIIx5)
Oh and one more thing...
I wanna see that Asian chick from "The Forty Year Old Virgin" remove
Axel-twats mustache with wax, then post it on youtube.
Posted by: PelosiSchmelosi at October 31, 2012 11:23 AM (epFGF)
The 9% response rate makes me strongly discount all the polling.
But then I have nothing but fact-free nailbiting. So irritating.
Posted by: Al at October 31, 2012 11:23 AM (MzQOZ)
Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 11:24 AM (r2PLg)
Bush won in 2004 despite LOSING independents. If Romney wins independents, and gets a Bush-level turnout, Obama is fucked even if he gets his 2008 turnout level, which at this point seems very unlikely.
Frankly, if Romney simply gets a Bush-2004 turnout, it'll be hard for Obama to win even if Romney only breaks even on independents.
Posted by: Spike at October 31, 2012 03:09 PM (wtnmC)
If this is true, how could we ever lose with a fine middle of the road candidate like John McCain? We should have swamped them in 2008! After all, why wouldn't the base turn out for McCain?
Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 31, 2012 11:24 AM (zLp5I)
Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 11:24 AM (LpQbZ)
Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 11:25 AM (+paCV)
What's that about?
Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 03:24 PM (r2PLg)
Downloading acceptable responses from the Jarrett mothership orbiting around the moon.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/b][/i][/u] at October 31, 2012 11:25 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 11:25 AM (f95vc)
Easier said than done.
Nobody knows what the D/R split will actually be. Short of a time machine, nobody possibly could know. Ditto with the percentage of white, black or latino voters. What numbers do you weight to?
Any figure you use to weight the polls would be little more than an educated guess.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2012 11:25 AM (SY2Kh)
Posted by: Jaws at October 31, 2012 11:26 AM (4I3Uo)
Coming up to 2008 it was easy for me to picture Mclame losing... This election it just does not compute that Obama could win. Maybe I am too insulated ? My family just thinks Obama will win. I keep saying NO.
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 11:26 AM (nTgAI)
WOMENÂ’S GROUP Slams Obama For Abandoning SEALs in Benghazi
"They aren't REAL women."
-Feminazi Sluts, Incorporated
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/b][/i][/u] at October 31, 2012 11:26 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 11:26 AM (r2PLg)
Cleveland Bowtie typed into Google
OOH!!! There's a link to Urban Dictionary.
*Click*
That's just f*ckin' sick dude!
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 31, 2012 11:27 AM (3jDMY)
Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 11:27 AM (f95vc)
*Shakes left fist* All Fired UP!
*Shakes right fist* Ready To Go!
*Shakes left fist* All Fired UP!
*Shakes right fist* Ready To Go!
*Shakes left fist* All Fired UP!
*Shakes right fist* Ready To Go!
*Shakes left fist* All Fired UP!
*Shakes right fist* Ready To Go!
*Shakes left fist* All Fired UP!
*Shakes right fist* Ready To Go!
*Screams and Points* FOWARD!
Posted by: Lester Liberalmann at October 31, 2012 11:27 AM (/Aauo)
Axelrod does a prolonged eye closing at the 45 second mark. What's that about?
Posted by: tasker at October 31, 2012 03:24 PM (r2PLg)
That signals that he is out of thoughts and is fighting giving up..
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 11:28 AM (nTgAI)
Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2012 03:25 PM (SY2Kh)
Tuesday can't get here fast enough.
Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 11:28 AM (X7wAM)
=========
That is the point.
The Dems will tell you that 2008 took most "swing" states and made them safe Dem states, that they shifted the map more blue.
But I ask you: Find me a single election result since 2008 that follows this, one race anywhere where the Dems increased their vote total or percentage over the previous cycle.
Didn't happen. Won't happen.
We got the ball, it's 4th and 5 on our 40, we're up by 10 and there's only 2:05 left, no time outs for either team. It's over: There's only 3 outcomes--we win by 10, 7 or 3. 80% we win by 10; 15% by 7 and 4.98% we win by 3; .01% lightning kills all our starters and .01% they tie.
Yeah, you're nervous--but your team isn't shit, they got this.
Posted by: RoyalOil at October 31, 2012 11:28 AM (imtbm)
Posted by: Douche' at October 31, 2012 11:28 AM (jKE+Z)
Independents aren't right or left leaning people who don't want to admit to a party. They are true non-partisans. They will vote every election based on what they view as the correct course. This does NOT mean they will ticket split. They will vote straight Republican if they view the Republican "brand" to be right for the country during this cycle. Next cycle, they will be up for grabs again.
Republicans and Democrats are partisans. They will always vote for their party no matter what. The key is party identification, not party registration. My wife is a registered Democrat, but she is a Republican in party affiliation. PurpleAv is the same way, he is currently registered Democrat.
Partisans can always be counted on to vote for their party's candidates, *IF* you can get them to the polls. This is where voter enthusiasm comes into play. If Republicans are enthusiastic, they will go to the polls, they will vote, and they will vote for all Republican candidates, all the way down to dogcatcher.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 31, 2012 11:28 AM (USExO)
ATTENTION COMRADES!
THE NARRATIVE WILL END IN SIX DAYS!
THE CIRCULAR FIRING SQUAD WILL COMMENCE IMMEDIATELY AFTER!
PLEASE PROCEED TO THE LIFEBOATS!
Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 31, 2012 11:29 AM (ovpNn)
The fact that Obama, Ryan, Biden, and Romney are all in WI the next few days pretty much throws a +8 Obama result out the window.
Haven't been able to open the internals...curious to see how much of the respondents were Dane and Milwaukee County.
Posted by: H Badger at October 31, 2012 11:29 AM (n/0Nw)
Forget shaving it. Obama already gives Axe the Dirty Sanchez!
(Might not wanna Google that at work either)
Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 11:29 AM (X7wAM)
He's wrong: These assholes don't care about credibility and only want to re-elect their boyfriend / messiah. They're upping the D+ bias to 2008 turnout levels and beyond, in a desperate attempt to prevent 'Romney Wave !!' stories
The polls are getting worse / will get worse --- not more accurate
Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 11:29 AM (Dll6b)
A lot of dems are now calling themselves independents. This happens when they aren't going to vote dem for president.
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 31, 2012 11:29 AM (PHb2k)
Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 11:29 AM (f95vc)
My office is composed of Obamabots, write-ins for LuapNor, and idiots who say they're not voting because there's no difference between Obama and Romney.
My siblings are voting SCOAMF because The Gheys. My parents are voting Romney because the economy, and Medicare.
My grandfather in Ohio is not competent to vote (end-of-life dementia...) but I expect someone has submitted a ballot for SCOAMF on his behalf. Possibly my pinko aunt who lives in Canada but will be submitting her own SCOAMF ballot.
I've been liking Romney more and more since the end of the primaries, when I vacillated between SMOD and All Dead Inside, but I'm kind of gloomy.
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 31, 2012 11:30 AM (ZKzrr)
Originally the polls thought they could disheart Republicans and Independs from voting, thus bringing victory to Obama. That is not working, so Obama plans to bring forth his 9 million lawyers (scumbags but I repeat myself) after the election to claim voter fraud. He will claim that his polls show that he was ahead and therefore, he really won, but Republicans stole his election. A replay of Al Gore all over again. The play book never changes.
Posted by: burt at October 31, 2012 11:30 AM (8kEad)
OOH!!! There's a link to Urban Dictionary.
*Click*
That's just f*ckin' sick dude!
you probably won't like the Jersey Turnpike #5 either
Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 11:30 AM (8sCoq)
Posted by: mare at October 31, 2012 11:30 AM (A98Xu)
Posted by: DeusExMachina at October 31, 2012 11:30 AM (6RTwM)
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 11:31 AM (VtjlW)
Which is why I weight all the polls using 5 different turnout models.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 31, 2012 11:31 AM (USExO)
Posted by: Jollyroger at October 31, 2012 11:31 AM (t06LC)
Posted by: Enemy at the Gates at October 31, 2012 11:31 AM (f95vc)
Yup, she has got that whole Arafat In Drag thing going on...though with them exhuming his body to determine true cause of death, which was widely speculated to be AIDS, the In Drag was probably true dat....
Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 11:31 AM (kXoT0)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 31, 2012 03:18 PM (+tqYo)
------------------------------------------------
I see damage associated with building things (much of it underground) next to the ocean. But massive damage? No. I don't see it.
Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 11:32 AM (7qi+1)
Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 11:32 AM (+paCV)
Go Women United.
Nice new ad re: Benghazi:
http://tinyurl.com/cyw2qzz
WOMENÂ’S GROUP Slams Obama For Abandoning SEALs in Benghazi
Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 03:24 PM (LpQbZ)
Where is the ad playing? If it does not make TV, it does not matter. The Low Info Bubbas and Boo-Boos will not see it.
By the way, I contacted them last night with that same question. No response yet.
Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 31, 2012 11:32 AM (zLp5I)
yes, and they are much less likely to vote than D or R partisans. They have less information, care less, and tend to have less education and income.
the Myth of the highly intelligent, well-informed Independent, sitting above it all and making a dispassionate choice after weighing all the factors is...
A MYTH
Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 11:32 AM (Dll6b)
Posted by: cajun carrot at October 31, 2012 11:33 AM (UZQM8)
Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 31, 2012 11:33 AM (9+ccr)
Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 11:33 AM (f95vc)
$10 says she rolls for TFG a 2nd time- too urbane to vote for a Mormon
Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 11:34 AM (8sCoq)
Posted by: kawfytawk at October 31, 2012 11:34 AM (JWLqy)
From here in NE Ohio, it sure looks as though Obama will pull it out. We've got non-stop ads, and O's seem to be more effective than R's. Add in the media's best efforts, and O looks like he'll get around 300 electoral college votes. It will be tough on the nation, but I've resigned myself to four more years of incompetence and class warfare.
Thankfully, even O's ineptitude won't be able to keep the country's economy down for eight years. Things will doubtless get better in both the short and long term.
Posted by: Pigilito at October 31, 2012 11:34 AM (yw6Yn)
Expanding to PA/MI/WI etc. is the "We're not going to fucking kneel down" and the "fuck prevent defense" plan.
This does change your stats though. It adds "10% we win by OMG". And raises the "lightning" to 1%. Or so. Plus or minus precisely 0.001%.
Posted by: Al at October 31, 2012 11:34 AM (MzQOZ)
Posted by: logprof at October 31, 2012 11:35 AM (jKE+Z)
Posted by: AmishDude at October 31, 2012 11:35 AM (T0NGe)
Posted by: boballab at October 31, 2012 11:35 AM (ebXTQ)
The "sex-position names" don't even need definitions. Just make up terms that sound like they might be dirty. Same thing with almost-randomly-paired-word insults or "totally made up word" insults.
To wit,
The Sheboygan Bucket Drop.
Posted by: Lincolntf at October 31, 2012 11:35 AM (GeD0A)
OOH!!! There's a link to Urban Dictionary.
*Click*
That's just f*ckin' sick dude!
-----------------------------------------------------
you probably won't like the Jersey Turnpike #5 either
-----------------------------------------------------
Or the Hyannis Port Hearse.
Posted by: Binder Full of Big Bird at October 31, 2012 11:35 AM (mAm+G)
I think the answer is just to look at the link (exerpted below).
"The partisan breakdown of the poll was 27% Rep, 35% Dem, 35% Independent. "
At the very least, the numbers in this poll are bizarre. In 2012 (ie, after four years of Obama and Tea Party) only 27% of respondents in Virginia self-identify as Republicans? I get that there has been some demographic shift there, but that is extreme. . .why is Virginia such an outlier compared to neighboring states? Everywhere else, there has been a tremendous INCREASE in the number of voters self-identifying as GOP. Why not VA?
Posted by: Looking closely at October 31, 2012 11:36 AM (6Q9g2)
Intuition--yeah, that's the ticket. Do you trust the pollster is the Crux of the Matter / Mother of all Questions
Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 11:36 AM (Dll6b)
Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 11:36 AM (+paCV)
Posted by: Scott Adams at October 31, 2012 11:37 AM (v6YdM)
Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 11:37 AM (Dll6b)
Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 11:37 AM (KXm42)
Posted by: cajun carrot at October 31, 2012 11:37 AM (UZQM8)
Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 11:37 AM (+paCV)
Posted by: Zombie Ted Kennedy at October 31, 2012 11:37 AM (jKE+Z)
Posted by: phoenixgirl, Happy Halloween ROMNEY/RYAN2012 at October 31, 2012 11:38 AM (Ho2rs)
Posted by: mnjg at October 31, 2012 11:38 AM (e3hs8)
Posted by: eleven at October 31, 2012 03:37 PM (KXm42)
Predicting turnout is a factor, but weighting is mostly about editing your raw data to make it more accurate or 'predictive'
Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 11:38 AM (Dll6b)
Posted by: McDirty at October 31, 2012 11:39 AM (qB/1a)
Yep, the even bigger myth is the highly educated and clear thinking are always Democrats...I have to hear that daily from my co-worker who carpetbagged from California to get a job here in awful, backwards, terrible Oklahoma AFTER he did the following:
1. Racked up $300,000 in school loans to become a lawyer at which he failed and had to close his practice
2. Lost his third of completely paid for house in Marin, CA doing day trading...my conservative estimate is at least $300,000 because the house was sold at peak prices.
3. Has had to declare bankruptcy and can't even get credit to buy a pack of chewing gum.
But, he is the smart and well educated person, not me, with my 3 degrees in Computer Science, a nice portfolio, etc., etc.
Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 11:39 AM (kXoT0)
Posted by: AmishDude at October 31, 2012 11:39 AM (T0NGe)
Ace...another VA Poll released today by Roanoke College has Romney up 5 in VA....so please post that link as well...it is over Redstate and Hotair...and in that poll Romney wins Indies by 26 and that is with a plus 4 Dem Sample....Look Q-Poll and the others are trying to show that somehow Mitt will steal the election. They are shewing their VA poll by Plus 8, showing fewere Repubs than in 2008 and Obama still loses Indies and stays up 2....it is insulting to anyone with a sense of knowledge.
What I am sick of is PPP, Q-Poll or NBC Polls even being discussed here....WHY DO WE DO THAT? to get upset? who cares....you know Ace...Gallup did a sample with over 10000 people and they found Reps up 1 over Dems for 2012...why is that not enough for you?
No instead here we go again with Plus 7, 8, 9 or like in PA with Frank Poll Plus Dem 13 and we get angry and upset. WHY??? Who worries about this? You have to vote so what...this crap is for consumption of the Stupid. But for some reason Conservative Sites talk about BS Skewed Polls....The real reason you do is because you are SO AFRAID that Obama will win. And quite frankly that is foolish. There will be no PLUS 7, 8, 9 or 10 anywhere....but I look forward to Nov 6th...when all these Pundits and Bloggers GROW UP and start realizing the American people know exactly what they are doing.
No matter what number comes out...until the 6th everyone will just be uneasy..plain and simple. And so what...you have one vote and that is it and you can take others and encourage them to go to the polls. Do anyone feel a great deal of enthusiasm for OBAMA????? NO
Even in the bias Q-Polls they found the GOP with double digit enthusiasm leads over Dems....they MUST SHOW OBAMA TIED or in the LEAD....remember this is CBS/NYT with Q-Poll..
Newsflash Ace NYT ran article to article on Sunday praising Obama and bashing Romney....now who thinks their polls would be good? Q-Poll has NEVER had Romney up in any poll ever sense they teamed with CBS/NYT. But here is another note...in those skewed polls....Obama fell in every one of them from the week before!
Romney will win...we have the people, enthusiasm and the money to get the job done!!!
Posted by: bluerose75 at October 31, 2012 11:39 AM (HDcKc)
He's wrong: These assholes don't care about credibility and only want to re-elect their boyfriend / messiah. They're upping the D+ bias to 2008 turnout levels and beyond, in a desperate attempt to prevent 'Romney Wave !!' stories
The polls are getting worse / will get worse --- not more accurate
Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 03:29 PM (Dll6b)
-------------------------------------------------
I was saying a couple of weeks ago that so many of these polling firms bought into the SCOAMT lock, stock, and barrel. They'll be going down with the ship, along with much of the MFM. They are not going to admit they were wrong.
Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 11:39 AM (7qi+1)
I lived in MD 42 years. Marvin Mandel and Spiro Agnew ruined the state for Republicans forever. It doesn't matter if Eastern Shore or western MD vote red- they CANNOT outvote the DC and Baltimore suburbs, which are filled with either 1)people on the public dole, or 2) government employees
Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 11:39 AM (8sCoq)
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 31, 2012 11:39 AM (ZKzrr)
Posted by: Jean at October 31, 2012 11:40 AM (v9wwx)
Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 11:40 AM (+paCV)
"The "sex-position names"don't even need definitions. Just make up terms that sound like they might be dirty. Same thing with almost-randomly-paired-word insults or "totally made up word" insults.
To wit, The Sheboygan Bucket Drop.
Yeah, you go right on believing all that stuff is made-up. Don't come crying to me when you're stuck on the business end of The Boise Butterchurn.
You've been warned.
Posted by: Jaws at October 31, 2012 11:40 AM (4I3Uo)
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 11:41 AM (VtjlW)
I see damage associated with building things (much of it underground) next to the ocean. But massive damage? No. I don't see it.
Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 03:32 PM (7qi+1)
the buildings in Manhattan go underground for multiple levels. If the electrical and mechanical rooms in the sub levels of these buildings flooded, that is bad, very bad.
and Con-Ed, AT and T, etc., all have tunnels and u/g equipment rooms in Manhattan. If they flooded....
They cannot get power back if they need to dry out, clean and retest all the equipment. Much of it will need replacement.
Equipment like big power circuit breakers contain paperboard and wood products. If they get soaked by sea water, the internal parts will need to be replaced and the breaker completely rebuilt. That is a 3-4 day job on each breaker. Even little panel board breakers, indicating lights, relays, etc., will all need to be cleaned, tested and probably replaced.
Same thing for the subway, when they finally get the water out.
Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 31, 2012 11:41 AM (zLp5I)
Isn't the "third way" Fascism? Looks like capitalism, but the government controls it?
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 31, 2012 11:41 AM (ZKzrr)
Thankfully, even O's ineptitudewon't be able to keep the country's economy down for eight years.Things will doubtless get better in both the short and long term.
Posted by: Pigilito at October 31, 2012 03:34 PM (yw6Yn) "
...............................Allahpundit, is that you?
Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 11:42 AM (X7wAM)
Yes, they know that only the partisans will remember in 2016 how bad many polls were in 2012
They've sounded "general quarters" and ain't gonna let up until after the election
Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 11:42 AM (Dll6b)
Yep. A Romney win means Intrade has basically been printing money for conservatives for months.
=====
Well, except for right before the first debate (where Romney was in the gutter under 25% then rebounded up to nearly 40%) Romney has been basically flat for months.
If you bought Romney to win, three months ago, you're basically flat now (ask me how I know).
Meanwhile, even if you liked the State races, most of them didn't have much liquidity until recently.
But in general, yeah. I think there are at least a few races (including NC, which I mentioned above) where there is a pretty significant divergence between the line odds and the true odds. You can buy Romney to win VA for just about 50% right now, and double your money in a week assuming he does it.
I don't know what his true odds are in VA, but Obama took it by 6.3 points in 2008, and Bush won it by over 8 in 2004. I can't state the true odds, but I have to think Romney has a better than 50-50 shot at taking it this time around.
Posted by: Looking closely at October 31, 2012 11:43 AM (6Q9g2)
Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 03:39 PM (8sCoq) ...................................A bit redundant, don't you think?
Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 11:44 AM (X7wAM)
Posted by: GalosGann at October 31, 2012 11:44 AM (T3KlW)
"The "sex-position names"don't even need definitions. Just make up terms that sound like they might be dirty. Same thing with almost-randomly-paired-word insults or "totally made up word" insults.
To wit, The Sheboygan Bucket Drop.
Yeah, you go right on believing all that stuff is made-up. Don't come crying to me when you're stuck on the business end of The Boise Butterchurn.
-------------------------------------------------
Or the Skaneasteles Apple Picker.
Posted by: Binder Full of Big Bird at October 31, 2012 11:45 AM (mAm+G)
Posted by: AmishDude at October 31, 2012 11:45 AM (T0NGe)
The male urethra wasn't made to withstand 50PSI pressure, so, no.
Posted by: Blanco Basura at October 31, 2012 11:45 AM (xKC/c)
Posted by: tofer732 at October 31, 2012 11:46 AM (2zM0P)
As far as NJ, they couldn't get choppers in the air at first -- because the weather has sucked and still sucks, but some sites have pics. The Weather Channel website has a photo montage. Torn up roads, gas lines exposed and leaking, fires still burning, electric lines down, homes with lower levels filled with water and debris. Not as many homes knocked off their foundations as I expected, but I think a good percentage will be knock-downs. Most towns are still off-limits to residents.
A lot of expensive 'infrastructure' work in addition to insured damage. My guess is a helluva lot more then HC Andrew in damage.
Posted by: Public Service Announcement at October 31, 2012 11:47 AM (feFL6)
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 11:48 AM (VtjlW)
Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 11:48 AM (X7wAM)
Posted by: Liquor is quicker at October 31, 2012 11:48 AM (nDu7+)
Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 11:49 AM (kXoT0)
Posted by: Blanco Basura at October 31, 2012 03:45 PM (xKC/c) .........O.K. If I kept it at around, well, lets' say.....40PSI? Would I be o.k. then? Not, that I would ever, ahem, try anything so sick, Just interested in science and stuff.
Posted by: Andrew Sullivan at October 31, 2012 11:50 AM (X7wAM)
"None of you can handle a Keokuk Kazoo.
The male urethra wasn't made to withstand 50PSI pressure, so, no."
If you're worried about a catastrophic blowout in that area, you can switch it around to a Vidalia Vuvuzela. Sure, you have to be a little more flexible, but you won't need emergency surgery.
Just make sure you brush your tongue afterwards.
Posted by: Jaws at October 31, 2012 11:53 AM (4I3Uo)
Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 11:54 AM (kXoT0)
Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 03:54 PM (kXoT0) ..........................The hole load!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Andrew Sullivan at October 31, 2012 11:55 AM (X7wAM)
Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 11:57 AM (X7wAM)
Posted by: @PurpAv at October 31, 2012 11:57 AM (L9WNK)
the old rule of thumb is if you put Tijuana in front of anything it turns dirty
Tijuana tater tots
Posted by: kj at October 31, 2012 11:58 AM (AW9md)
"Doesn't Sean Penn go there all the time to blow Chavez? "
Why do you think I mentioned the importance of brushing your tongue afterwards?
Posted by: Jaws at October 31, 2012 11:58 AM (4I3Uo)
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 11:59 AM (VtjlW)
Posted by: GalosGann at October 31, 2012 12:00 PM (T3KlW)
That's disturbing.
For what its worth, Scott Walker won his recall in WI just a few months ago at 53-46. Obviously different issues were at play then, but with a seven point pro-Republican spread in June, I don't see why its implausible for Romney to win in WI.
Posted by: Looking closely at October 31, 2012 12:02 PM (6Q9g2)
Posted by: Minnfidel at October 31, 2012 12:04 PM (X7wAM)
Just something to think about.
Posted by: Hector at October 31, 2012 12:07 PM (+IAze)
Posted by: thegreatsatan at October 31, 2012 12:08 PM (q9DYD)
The media are undersapmling Republicans or maybe Americans love Marxism. It's one or the other.
Posted by: Hector at October 31, 2012 12:09 PM (CX71c)
http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/305/axef.jpg
Posted by: Terez at October 31, 2012 12:10 PM (Uwi+4)
Posted by: Kramer at October 31, 2012 12:11 PM (kiwMG)
Sorry I don't drink kool aid like you. I have been saying for weeks that Romney was better off spending money on PA than Ohio. Obama has bought out Ohio with auto bailouts, phones and welfare. PA on the other hand has higher unemployment and Obama is trying stop coal production and fracking. I feel Ohio has gone blue like the North East.
Sorry I don't drink kool aid like you.
Posted by: Hector at October 31, 2012 12:12 PM (TVbdM)
Romney has Virginia. It's Ohio that I feel that maybe out of reach. Hopefully the last minute blitz in PA can push him over the edge there and compensate for Ohio.
Posted by: Hector at October 31, 2012 12:15 PM (CX71c)
Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at October 31, 2012 12:27 PM (PVNda)
Ohio absentee ballots requests the democrats in 2012 are down by 125,000 ballots compared to 2008 and the Republicans in 2012 are up by 10,000 ballots over 2008. In other word the net lose for democrats in absentee ballots alone is 135,000Â… Obama won Ohio in 2008 by only 260,000 and he is already losing 135,000 among absentee votes alone and assuming that all democrats are voting him in this category.
Obama is certain to lose OhioÂ…
Posted by: mnjg at October 31, 2012 12:35 PM (e3hs8)
Posted by: ginaswo at October 31, 2012 01:00 PM (SqgBJ)
Posted by: Anonymous Conservative at October 31, 2012 01:25 PM (DcYjY)
Could someone please take down that picture of Thomas? It is reallllllly creeping me out. Posted by: Daybrother at October 31, 2012 03:08 PM (+paCV)
Happy Halloween!
Posted by: Helen Thomas at October 31, 2012 01:55 PM (7OHl8)
Posted by: HeftyJo at October 31, 2012 01:58 PM (EN3UW)
Posted by: matt foley at October 31, 2012 02:01 PM (2WDMC)
Posted by: matt foley at October 31, 2012 02:03 PM (2WDMC)
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Posted by: NaCly Dog at October 31, 2012 10:54 AM (u82oZ)