June 13, 2012
— LauraW From one year ago.
...one key economic data component has been quite good at predicting presidential elections, and that is consumer confidence. If the consumer confidence index is at 100 or higher, then the incumbent party is likely to win. If not, then the opposition party wins."
100? Yeah. That'll happen.
Here it is in chart form. Ugly. Hope is a byproduct of lots of opportunities to choose from (jobs), and jobs are a byproduct of a thriving capitalism. Capitalism cannot thrive when capitalists are being discouraged from investing. Capitalism also cannot thrive when capital is excessively diverted into nonproductive government activities (graft and looting).
Barack Obama believes he can go on indefinitely draining the vitality from the private sector and still somehow end up with enough to feed the public sector. This has never worked, anywhere it has been tried. This president has failed to suggest- suggest, never mind implement!- policies that demonstrate he even has a grasp on how the economy works. Thus this president has failed to create hope.
Posted by: LauraW at
05:36 AM
| Comments (120)
Post contains 187 words, total size 2 kb.
Iowa.
If you want to know how a candidate will do nationally, Iowa is almost the perfect bellweather. The below are the last 5 Presidential elections, showing what the democratic candidate got in IA and also Nationally. You will see IA is almost always dead onÂ…
1992
IA – 43.29%
Nat – 43.01
1996
IA – 50.26
Nat- 49.23
2000
IA – 48.54%
Nat- 48.38%
2004
IA – 49.23%
Nat- 48.27%
2008
IA – 53.93%
Nat- 52.87%
What do we learn from this? If Obama indeed pulls 46% in IA on election day as the latest Rasmussen states, Romney will win this election by 6-7% overall.
Posted by: aerofanatic at June 13, 2012 05:44 AM (h8FS0)
Posted by: Bill from Chappaqua at June 13, 2012 05:45 AM (Bxm/r)
http://is.gd/qT4VRi
Posted by: Gerry at June 13, 2012 05:46 AM (eXa4C)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at June 13, 2012 05:46 AM (MCDCp)
Posted by: laceyunderalls at June 13, 2012 05:47 AM (pLTLS)
Posted by: The People of Brattleboro, Vermont at June 13, 2012 05:47 AM (48wze)
So Romney polling at 55% nationwide might raise consumer confidence over 100, and Zero will win? What a disaster!
Posted by: Up, Up With People at June 13, 2012 05:47 AM (iYvMQ)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 13, 2012 05:49 AM (8y9MW)
http://minx.cc/?blog=86&post=330078#c18865154
Posted by: Vic at June 13, 2012 05:50 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: Totally Unbiased and Neutral Newsreader at June 13, 2012 05:50 AM (4I3Uo)
Now if she'd just shave the hump we'd all be better off.
Imagine the net increase in Gillette's bottom line alone.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at June 13, 2012 05:50 AM (sbV1u)
Posted by: Jethro Q. Walrustitty at June 13, 2012 05:51 AM (i42rm)
...And to think that consumer confidence could increase if the congress & Pres would just change course.
But they won't... they'd rather take the ship down with them, like a cartoon anchor twice the size of the boat.
Posted by: SnowSun at June 13, 2012 05:51 AM (UAUr6)
Posted by: Jeff at June 13, 2012 05:52 AM (jXytP)
Posted by: SnowSun at June 13, 2012 05:52 AM (UAUr6)
Posted by: Gmac at June 13, 2012 05:52 AM (8nfdO)
Interesting point of order - W won in 2004 with consumer confidence slightly under the 100 threshhold. It was on the way there, from my estimations of looking at the chart and eyeballing where November 2004 sits...but still.
Based on this chart, Baraka is boned like California.
And I always thought that the True Divining Rod for Presidential Elections was that one town that always had all seven people vote right at midnight. Gilbert Notch or some marginally-memorable name like that...
Anybody take the five minutes it would take to poll those people?
Posted by: reason at June 13, 2012 05:53 AM (q/kmn)
Posted by: lauraw at June 13, 2012 05:54 AM (mhzPJ)
Posted by: maddogg at June 13, 2012 05:54 AM (OlN4e)
That is how you link to previous posts.
Posted by: Vic at June 13, 2012 05:54 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: Scobface at June 13, 2012 05:54 AM (IoNBC)
Hmm, 64.9% huh?
I may have to get some more pudding coupons from SIL #1. Of course, anything can happen between now and November, but I just don't see anything good coming down the pike for this economy.
Except the defeat of teh SCOAMF. I'm pretty sure that the economy will begin to rebound as the general election approaches, something that Axelrod will crow from the barnyard roof about endlessly. Fuck him, let him crow all he wants, we know what's really happening.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at June 13, 2012 05:56 AM (d0Tfm)
Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.
Don't think they're a predictor this time around.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at June 13, 2012 05:56 AM (sbV1u)
Posted by: Cobalt Shiva at June 13, 2012 09:38 AM (1iauC)
Don't forget that capitalism is racist too
Posted by: TheQuietMan at June 13, 2012 05:56 AM (1Jaio)
Watching CSpan and Barbara Boxer. Bitching at Mitch McConnell about him calling for reduced spending and making her case by citing Bill Clinton and the Dems creating a surplus (which is a lie on 2 counts) and then GWB running up deficits.
The stupid, it burns.
Posted by: Burn the Witch at June 13, 2012 05:56 AM (YhjZc)
"Moron geoff visited in person last weekend and commanded me to contribute more."
He brandished a triangle-laden chart at you, didn't he...
Posted by: reason at June 13, 2012 05:57 AM (q/kmn)
"I predict I will be buying more ammo."
If your ammo stores are already topped up, I'd suggest treating yourself and your loved ones to a kevlar vest / plate carrier. They're stylish and always in season.
Posted by: Jaws at June 13, 2012 05:58 AM (4I3Uo)
We're working hard to head that off for you!
Posted by: Europe at June 13, 2012 05:58 AM (sbV1u)
Posted by: Mephitis at June 13, 2012 05:59 AM (10XBV)
"Consumer confidence is racist!
Don't forget that capitalism is racist too"
Ya can't jus' put a new battery in tha system!
Oh no no!
We need a NEW SYSTEM!
Posted by: Van Jones at June 13, 2012 05:59 AM (q/kmn)
Posted by: Brother Cavil presents at June 13, 2012 06:00 AM (GBXon)
*******
It's always good to have a bit more estrogen here to keep the men folk in line.
Posted by: laceyunderalls at June 13, 2012 06:00 AM (pLTLS)
Posted by: lauraw at June 13, 2012 06:00 AM (mhzPJ)
Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.
Don't think they're a predictor this time around.
Thank you, Sean.
And I don't think they've got anything on the fine upstanding citizens of Brattleboro, VT.
Posted by: Van Jones at June 13, 2012 06:01 AM (q/kmn)
Posted by: Scobface at June 13, 2012 06:01 AM (IoNBC)
http://is.gd/qT4VRi
Posted by: Gerry at June 13, 2012 09:46 AM (eXa4C)
**
Movie theaters are alread on their death bed with Netflix, PPV, streaming etc. so what it takes to put more people out of work/buisness the Nanny state fuck wits are all for it.
Posted by: dananjcon at June 13, 2012 06:01 AM (eavT+)
Consumer Confidence averaged 93.41 reaching an all time high of 144.70 in January of 2000 and a record low of 25.30 in February of 2009.
Man, did that decade end up sucking or what?
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at June 13, 2012 06:02 AM (kdS6q)
Don't talk crazy. You can't use a regular shaver on bristles like these.
Try mixing some Nair with some butterscotch pudding the next time Ace comes over for a night of debauchery and Valu-Rite.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at June 13, 2012 06:02 AM (d0Tfm)
Posted by: newmike at June 13, 2012 06:03 AM (1OLmL)
That's not how I do it.
That link goes to a Movable Type template.
Try this: http://minx.cc/?blog=86&post=330078#c18865154
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at June 13, 2012 06:04 AM (nEUpB)
And he'll go on indefinitely blaming Bush for everything
Posted by: TheQuietMan at June 13, 2012 06:04 AM (1Jaio)
"Hi reason! "
*swoon*
"Someone elsewhere suggested the threshold was 90, not 100."
Potato, potato. Crap, that doesn't really have the same effect in text...
"But it was on a site that I am loth to link here. "
Word. Sohos can gin up her own traffic.
Posted by: reason at June 13, 2012 06:06 AM (q/kmn)
Movie theaters are alread on their death bed with Netflix, PPV, streaming etc. so what it takes to put more people out of work/buisness the Nanny state fuck wits are all for it.
You got that right. There were only about 25 people in the theatre for Monday's showing of Prometheus . And at $17.5 a pop for IMAX 3D, I can see why.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at June 13, 2012 06:07 AM (d0Tfm)
yet another phoney baloney government economic number
Posted by: newmike
The survey released Tuesday by The Conference Board
The Conference Board, Inc. is a non-profit, non-partisan business membership and research group.
But your heart was in the right place.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at June 13, 2012 06:07 AM (kdS6q)
Just more evidence that he is toast. But remember this from the previous thread:
http://is.gd/R0CY8d
Posted by: Vic at June 13, 2012 06:09 AM (YdQQY)
Where's Toby - I don't want to steal his line but I will for just one second....
THE BALLS ON THAT GUY!
Posted by: laceyunderalls at June 13, 2012 06:09 AM (pLTLS)
I haven't seen anything about it. Do you have a link, or know where the speech was? I'd love a transcript of that.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 13, 2012 06:11 AM (8y9MW)
The AZ vote is a single district, and one that has some significant emotional attachment to the previous Democrat holder of the seat. It's not state wide referendum such as WI.
I think we should be cautious, but there is room for optimism.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at June 13, 2012 06:11 AM (nEUpB)
You know what was icing on the cake for me? On the page that has the chart-form of the consumer confidence index was an ad for the American Beverage Association's "Lets Clear It Up . org" website, which looks like basically an anti-Bloomberg smear-fighting effort.
PepsiFact.
ASnackWatch!
Posted by: reason at June 13, 2012 06:12 AM (q/kmn)
Posted by: Shannon at June 13, 2012 06:12 AM (QxDuX)
Posted by: phoenixgirl clinging to my bible, gun and coca cola at June 13, 2012 06:13 AM (Ho2rs)
Posted by: toby928© at June 13, 2012 06:13 AM (QupBk)
Posted by: The People of Brattleboro, Vermont at June 13, 2012 06:14 AM (48wze)
"he said something like "don't pay attention to the facts they'll use to refute this point"."
Oops! Apparently that line didn't get peer-reviewed. But maybe that's just me, bein' all hatey and taking the definition of "facts" out of context.
Posted by: reason at June 13, 2012 06:14 AM (q/kmn)
Posted by: Uncledave at June 13, 2012 06:14 AM (nJ32z)
Posted by: Meghan McCheese at June 13, 2012 06:14 AM (AbIXZ)
Posted by: laceyunderalls at June 13, 2012 06:15 AM (pLTLS)
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at June 13, 2012 10:07 AM (d0Tfm)
**
If ya live more than 10miles from a movie theater and do dinner as well, your talking a $100.00... Gas 20.00 + Ticket x2=17.50 + snack/soda x2=20.00 + Dinnerx2=50.00...105.00 a couple.
Posted by: dananjcon at June 13, 2012 06:16 AM (eavT+)
Posted by: laceyunderalls at June 13, 2012 06:16 AM (pLTLS)
Posted by: Scobface at June 13, 2012 06:17 AM (IoNBC)
Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at June 13, 2012 06:17 AM (r2PLg)
Thirty years ago, President Ronald Reagan asked me to meet with world leaders to represent the United States in opposition to the United Nations Law of the Sea Treaty. Our efforts soon found a persuasive supporter in British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Today, as the U.S. Senate again considers approving this flawed agreement, the Reagan-Thatcher reasons for opposition remain every bit as persuasive.
Posted by: Donald Rumsfeld at June 13, 2012 06:17 AM (e8kgV)
Posted by: laceyunderalls at June 13, 2012 06:17 AM (pLTLS)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 13, 2012 06:18 AM (8y9MW)
My point was the ND vote on eliminating property taxes. That WAS the entire State and a supposed conservative State as well. I didn't consider AZ-8 as much of anything..
Posted by: Vic at June 13, 2012 06:18 AM (YdQQY)
I know you were being snarky, but you're not exaggerating as much as you think you are. The GOP hasn't put up a serious challenger to Tom Harkin in decades.
The population centers are failed rust-belt cities attracting refugees from Illinois, and Des Moines is burgeoning with hipsters and insurance lobbyists. A third of the hospital nurseries in western Iowa are anchor babies.
Yeah, they elected Branstad after four years of that fat criminal Culver (currently pulling down a huge federal salary as an Obama appointee...running states into the ground has its rewards), but they'll send at least three and probably four pinkos to the House in November.
Posted by: Kinder, Gentler HeatherRadish™ at June 13, 2012 06:19 AM (ZKzrr)
Posted by: indigo child at June 13, 2012 06:19 AM (xXhWA)
Posted by: laceyunderalls at June 13, 2012 06:21 AM (pLTLS)
"I know it's irrational, but there's just something very satisfying about buying another 100-round box of 12 gauge shells every time I go to Walmart."
Meh. Wake me up when Wallyworld starts selling econopacks of #4 or even 00 Buck. I'll stick with chucking yet another box or two of 7.62 x 39 in the cart every time out.
Posted by: Jaws at June 13, 2012 06:21 AM (4I3Uo)
Posted by: Stalin at June 13, 2012 06:22 AM (IoNBC)
Posted by: SoCalMe at June 13, 2012 06:22 AM (s72/N)
Dinnerx2=50.00...105.00 a couple.
To be fair, I went on a Monday afternoon precisely to beat the crowds. And the theatre's not far away. But I did buy some smokes, so theres $12. Still, I've been to plenty of movies in the past with bigger crowds on off-days.
Since I'm funemployed again, a trip to the movies is a real treat these days. B'Gal and I haven't been together to one in over two years. But I really really wanted to see Prometheus in 3D, which wasn't that great. Sir Ridley almost phoned it in. Good, but not great.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at June 13, 2012 06:22 AM (d0Tfm)
We also have to factor in that upwards of a few million evangelical Christians will sit out the election because of Romney's Mormon faith.
Tsar, do you have any data supporting this or is it just your opinion?
Posted by: Velvet Ambition at June 13, 2012 06:22 AM (mFxQX)
Posted by: The littl shyning man at June 13, 2012 06:23 AM (PH+2B)
Posted by: Scobface at June 13, 2012 06:24 AM (IoNBC)
those crafty Dems like to forget that San Fran Nan only sent a continuing resolution for the FY2009 budget to George W Bush, so all spending increases for FY2009 are directly on Jugg-ears' watch...
Posted by: Bill from Chappaqua at June 13, 2012 06:25 AM (Bxm/r)
Posted by: the FUNemployed! at June 13, 2012 06:25 AM (l2max)
I understand your points. I just think that AZ should be taken out of the equation (see phoenixgirl's comment).
And...don't forget that there is a strong populist streak in the upper Midwest.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at June 13, 2012 06:26 AM (nEUpB)
Posted by: laceyunderalls at June 13, 2012 06:27 AM (pLTLS)
"(I'm not going by the same name I have over here)"
*Spanky McSkirtlifter is now following your Tweets.
Posted by: someone cribbing from PAB on an old RedEye at June 13, 2012 06:30 AM (l2max)
Mutt you found me on twitter - I followed you back (I'm not going by the same name I have over here)
I couldn't help but notice that you were playing with your hair in you avatar...
Posted by: @Best, Mike at June 13, 2012 06:32 AM (uuvKQ)
Posted by: Cricket at June 13, 2012 06:37 AM (DrC22)
Posted by: Lindsey Graham at June 13, 2012 06:37 AM (gPDxp)
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at June 13, 2012 06:48 AM (nEUpB)
Posted by: runningrn at June 13, 2012 06:55 AM (WGmy2)
Posted by: Moochelle's Gaping Piehole at June 13, 2012 06:56 AM (WGmy2)
Posted by: Ed Snyder at June 13, 2012 09:41 AM (kXeNY)
http://tinyurl.com/84lszzd
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at June 13, 2012 09:54 AM (r4wIV)
Posted by: steevy at June 13, 2012 01:51 PM (Xb3hu)
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Posted by: Cobalt Shiva at June 13, 2012 05:38 AM (1iauC)