1 easy as 9-9-9

2

Romney could always pick up one of those other 7 states I've heard about.

3 I don't believe it will even be close.

4 But it's my gut that New Hampshire is a lost cause


Who is this 'Ace' RINO? Bring back Open Blogger guy. He would know that NH is going red this November.

5 Virginia is a winner-take-all state, isn't it. ....As in, takes all of the electoral votes?

6 I don't believe it will even be close.

Posted by: toby928© at May 24, 2012 03:00 PM (NG097)

Reagan/Carter v2.0

7 What is wrong with this country? Why is it even close?

If Obama wins, it's time to talk secession.

8

... we'd be wondering about New Jersey

**

Wonder no more Mortimer...WERE BACK!!!

9 Uhh - North Carolina?

10 While I would love NJ to go for Romney, it is a lost cause. There is no enthusiasm for Obama, but that doesn't change the cold hard facts of demographics. There are just too many people sucking the government teat for there to be a November surprise in the Garden State.

11 Oh - there it is. I don't know why I bother reading the posts.

12 >>>Who is this 'Ace' RINO? Bring back Open Blogger guy. He would know that NH is going red this November. Put me some f'n information if you've got it! Just a sense of mine, that when we talk about New Hampshire, we're talking about a FORMERLY Republican state. Things change. New Jersey, for God's sakes, used to be a fairly decent Republican state. When Bush the Elder lost that in 1996, I remember Jennings (I think ) calling it a real kick in the gut to Bush. At that point it was definitely trending Democratic, but people were still thinking of it as it had been 10 or 15 years before.

13 And I will reiterate that PA goes Red this year.

14 In order to stay sane I have to assume we are gonna win going away. Now I know we have work, work hard, out work the enemy, but we will prevail or die! Or something like that

15 8 Wonder no more Mortimer...WEREBACK!!!   ---------   There. There back.  

16

Varno with the winner at 1?

 

17 But like many simple things, it's also hard.

That's what she said.

18 Posted by: dananjcon at May 24, 2012 03:02 PM (eavT+)

Talk to me Hudson!

19 Give me another shot of caffeine and I'll be talking about how Maine can be won.

20 That's a lotta words for Romney Needs To Duplicate George Bush's 2004 Victory.

21 When Bush the Elder lost that in 1996, I remember Jennings (I think ) calling it a real kick in the gut to Bush. At that point it was definitely trending Democratic, but people were still thinking of it as it had been 10 or 15 years before. Posted by: ace at May 24, 2012 03:03 PM (aw5Tx) 92?

22 yes he has to win back North Carolina, which did in fact go to Obama, and by like 7 points IIRC. NC is a likely GOP pick-up... but it would in fact be a pick-up.

23 Things are going to have to improve dramatically between now and November for Obama to pull this one out. That or Romney really, really screwing up in the campaign but I agree with Toby in #3 that this isn't going to be a really close election.

 

24 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant.

25 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

26 right, 1992. I originally WROTE 1992, then I CORRECTED it to say 1996!!!

27 11 Oh - there it is. I don't know why I bother reading the posts. Posted by: Underground Vulgarian at May 24, 2012 03:02 PM (oipCQ) Be Breitbart!!!!

28 It saddens me that even now we can conceive of the election being close.  At a time when thousands should be marching on Washington with pitchforks and torches for there to be doubt about the outcome is depressing.

29 Posted by: ace at May 24, 2012 03:03 PM (aw5Tx)

That would be Dole the oldest, but we get your point.

30 Newsbusters, John Stewart CNN 2000 "I'm more of a socialist or an independent."  w/vid

http://tinyurl.com/8abwcgt

31

Illinois used to be a fairly reliable Republican state.  Just ask Lincoln.  In retrospect, though, the Republic pretty much couldn't be preserved.  Dissolve the nation along the 2012 electoral lines. 

32

PA Sen. Pileggi proposed a change in the way our state's electoral votes are allocated: the winner of each congressional district would get the electoral votes. Gov. Corbett also backed the proposal but the idea has stalled. If this method were implemented PA would go red this year.

33 It is simple, really. All Mitt has to do is secure OH, MO, and FL. The rest will follow suit.

34

The Wisconsin recall will be the preview.  If it is an absolute blow-out, November will not be Reagan/Carter 2.0, it will be Reagan/Mondale 2.0.

(Und den ve here der lamintations of der vimmin...)

35 Meh, people are overanalyzing this. Voters don't really like Romney any more than we do but they won't vote for Obama to the presidency again. And if asked, they'll tend not to bash the president out of fears of seeming racist. So polls don't show Romney up by much but he'll win by plenty, comfortably, even in states that look Obamaish right now.

36 23 Yeah,they are all close now.There is an entrenched entitlement class that will never vote for a Republican.

37 Posted by: Nevergiveup at May 24, 2012 03:04 PM (05RcU)

If we lose I would like your C4 recipe.

38 " I just get the sense that Iowa is a farmer/labor state and also is probably a lost cause except in an election when Iowa doesn't even matter..."

Posted by: ace

And in the farmer state of Iowa, the government just tried to tell those farmers that their kids aren't allowed to work the farms anymore. That's gonna leave a bruise. I bet farmers have a long memory if you try to mess with their livelihood.

39 22 yes he has to win back North Carolina, which did in fact go to Obama, and by like 7 points IIRC. NC is a likely GOP pick-up... but it would in fact be a pick-up. Posted by: ace at May 24, 2012 03:05 PM (aw5Tx) 0.3% http://bit.ly/mYM5Ax

40 >>>Give me another shot of caffeine and I'll be talking about how Maine can be won. I think Maine could be won, actually -- but in this scenario, we're no longer talking about how Romney can eke out in a win. In that scenario, we're discussing the historical ramifications of a route, and of course people start talking about "realignment" yet again.

41

As a Virginia resident (go figure), I think swinging VA back to red is very manageable. 2008 featured a very poor candidate in McCain, and Obama inspired a ton of blacks from the Hampton Roads area to come out and vote for him, in addition to Fairfax County. Republicans were not fired up to turn out for McCain here (outskirts of Northern Virginia). However, Obama's just not going to get that turnout again this year, not from the black youth. Republicans are much, much more motivated in this area, just as they are in Wisconsin.

 

Now, I wouldn't take Virginia for granted. Like Wisconsin, winning Virginia will take discipline and hard work. But, Virginia will definitely be possible.

 

As for others? I see Wisconsin as possible, and I think the Mormon factor in Nevada might also be underrated. But I do see Pennsylvania in play, and possibly even more favorable for Romney than Ohio. Again, I don't know that Obama will get the same turnout from the PA cities that he did in 2008, and he has lost substantial support in the rural PA counties. I see Obama struggling in PA this year, but of course that state may prove to be its usual Republican tease.

42 f me, rout, I meant. Not "route."

43 If Romney takes Wisconsin, he surely takes Iowa too.

44 Put me some f'n information if you've got it!

Just a sense of mine, that when we talk about New Hampshire, we're talking about a FORMERLY Republican state.


Mostly got instinct, buoyed by yard signs.


Isn't the NH legislature 3/4 Republican?

45 What Romney needs is for Obama to keep talking and keep evolving. Funny thing about desperate narcissists -- they're more creepy than funny.

46 Give me another shot of caffeine and I'll be talking about how Maine can be won. Posted by: fluffy, Masshole at May 24, 2012 03:04 PM (z9HTb) I remember the Maine!

47 And for the other geeks in the audience, here is a link to an interactive electoral map.

http://www.270towin.com/

48 Underground Vulgarian, I don't have any of the facts but you should listen to me anyway.

49 My latest update if anyone is so inclined: http://is.gd/lp5D6A. I think Iowa is in the mix, big time. My personal guess is that Romney takes Fl, OH, but loses VA, PA, and NV. Iowa would give Romney just over 270 in this case.

50

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at May 24, 2012 03:02 PM (nEUpB)

**

District 5 needs to secede from the State, We'll call it...Jersey Island, our state motto, "The shit just got real."  or my fave..."Molon Labe" 

51 The winner of Ohio wins the election.

I don't think it will be, but I really wish it would be a blowout. The Democrats are going to cheat, and if it's close, the aftermath is going to be horrible. Much, much worse than 2000.

52

You know what state never gets talked about as a decider for Republicans? Washington. Sigh.

 

 

 

We have another Governor's race here that by all rights will look as though the Republican is going to win it, until the damn mail truck full of "misdelivered" ballots shows up.

53

After the auto bailout, the hand-picked candidate of the UAW went up against a nerd businessman that no one ever heard of with absolutely no political experience for the governorship of Michigan.  The democrat tied himself to Obama, expecting the saving of GM and Chrysler to carry him through.

He lost by 19 points.

Obama has loaded Michigan with paid staffers, a sure sign that his internal polls are showing trouble. 

If there is one state that is ripe for change, itÂ’s Michigan.  Obama will lose it in November.

54 f me, rout, I meant. Not "route."

I'm glad you caught that. I hate being Super Pedantic Man.

55 >>>All Mitt has to do is secure OH, MO, and FL. MO voted for McCain. I don't think it's a true swing state anymore. I think it's a lean-pretty-far R state.

56 NC was a fluke for Obama. But IN was not nealry as flukey as I'd like to think. McCain was the worst Republican candidate in my lifetime.

57 48 Underground Vulgarian, I don't have any of the facts but you should listen to me anyway. Posted by: ace at May 24, 2012 03:08 PM (aw5Tx) If it's any consolation, I take your wild guesses more seriously than Karl Rove's studied analysis.

58 Nevada.  Hardy har har.

The state GOP has been taken completely over by RuPaul drones rebelling against the RNC.  And the last time the state's GOP had a plum opportunity, it pissed it away with the worst possible candidate.

Nevada was winnable before the 2010 fuckup.  As it is, that state's gone.  Look elsewhere.

59 yes he has to win back North Carolina, which did in fact go to Obama, and by like 7 points IIRC. Wiki says .32% http://is.gd/XndXNc

60 I think NC and FL are in the bag for Romney. I think VA is close, and Romney needs to work hard there. I think PA might stop being a cock tease and actually put out for the GOP this year. Colorado? Lost cause. Ohio? Unions have taken over. Maybe NH, I just don't know about it. It's going to be closer than people think and I genuinely fear a contested election like 2000, only with racial overtones.

61 We needs to be conversating about your "contestation."

Traditionally, good econ news takes six months to percolate down to public street-level attitudes, meaning the economy right about now is what the election would be on.  Increased speed of news cycles could reduce that somewhat, but the public perception is always a lagging indicator.

The consensus now appears to be that we're on the wrong track and Obama does not deserve reelection.  Romney's main challenge is similar to Reagan's in 1980:  convince the public he isn't the scary guy the other side wants to portray him as.

It's useful to know where we need to be concentrating resources, but this should not be a nail-biter election.  We should be building on 2010.

62 Maine and Oregon and Iowa I put into the category of "Bonus Finishing-Move Damage." If we're talking about them, well. We're really just looking at the margin of the rout.

63 I dunno, Ace. MO elected that dunce McWhatshername in 2006 and she's not doing terribly in the polling in 2012.

64 Posted by: dananjcon at May 24, 2012 03:08 PM (eavT+)

Or, "Say hello to my little friend!"

65 Here's the problem with 'pundits' who do not live in those states and who haven't lived in them for a long time. In fact, it's a problem with people who aren't from that area - they have no idea what the people in those regions are like. Since before the 2010 election cycle I have been saying there is no way Obama wins NC again unless the country were to suddenly, and unexpectedly turn around. I live in Charlotte, itself somewhat purple, and the sentiment has been swinging against him here. Why do you think the DNC is here this year. Ohio is the same way - it's a conservative state - you have a few blue areas - Cleveland and Columbus, but for the most part the state is red-red-red. I'm FROM Ohio and lived in both Columbus and a small town south of it. I interacted with a lot of people from Ohio over the years and still do. Ohians despise President Dick. Ohio won't even be close on election day. It's not in play and we'll soon see Obama stop campaigning there. He's fucked. His internal polls show it and everyone knows it - that is why there is the panic and they keep trotting out lie after lie, hoping something can gain traction or at least distract. People know what they see and some of those who voted for him 2008 know it was a sucker's vote. They won't be fooled again.

66 Nah, it depends on whether the Democrats can engineer another economic meltdown ala Freddy/Fannie 45 days before the election.

67 I think Maine could be won, actually -- but in this scenario, we're no longer talking about how Romney can eke out in a win.


Maine is not winner take all, right? Romney should grab the (2nd?) district up north. Southern district might be worth contesting. Like CAC has said, make Obama fight for his 'safe' territory.

68 Wiki says .32% It was, like, 14K votes.

69 ace btw--I answered you on the last thread. sorry I'm an anal tactician. Pops survived the Battle of the Bulge--our whole family is obsessed with tactics. It really is nothing more than that. ************ Nevada, Nevada, Nevada- Hmmmm- Romney is having to circum-navigate the Clark County GOP-(home of Las Vegas) and instead is going to funnel money to- "Team Nevada". The Clark County GOP has been taken over by Paul bots- no joke. This isn't as big a deal as Jon Ralston LV political reporter wants to make it sound like. First Las Vegas is notoriously transient. Second the Mormons go door to door there in neighborhoods on bikes that most of you would be afraid to drive through. They'll have plenty of GOTV skills. Then I'm sure Mitt will have - Joe Heck. Joe Heck's volunteers are relentless. The "Team Nevada" idea is completely brilliant strategery.

70 22 yes he has to win back North Carolina, which did in fact go to Obama, and by like 7 points IIRC. NC is a likely GOP pick-up... but it would in fact be a pick-up. Posted by: ace at May 24, 2012 03:05 PM (aw5Tx) 14,000 votes Ace. That's what The Gayest First President won NC by in 2008. He'll lose the state by 100K this time.

71 I remember the Maine!


Damn, you're old ;--)

72 I think Iowa goes GOP this time.  We have a moderate Republican governor who cleaned up the mess after the idiot last time.  The idiot's wife is running against Steve King, but doesn't seem to be doing well, so I predict a high turnout in that CD. We also kicked out 3 of the SC judges that invented gay marriage.  There may be a couple of more of them on the ballot.

Iowa's hard to pigeonhole.  But I look for Obama to visit Iowa a lot and the media to remind us that Romney didn't spend the Ames straw poll here or campaign much this time (as opposed to 200 .

It really isn't a big deal and only a few movers and shakers in the party got their noses out of joint, but look for local media to try to gin up some phony resentment.

Still, I think it's easily doable and wouldn't take a lot of resources to flip.  You'll see if it's in play if Obama goes to Iowa a lot.  He'll tip his hand first.

73 Amid polls showing that his efforts to regulate religious institutions have hurt his image among Catholics, President Barack Obama has begun touting his early ties to the church. “My first job as a community organizer was with Catholic churches who taught me the power of kindness and commitment to others in neighborhoods,” he declared at a Hollywood fundraiser May 23. “When I was a young community organizer, I was working with Catholic churches and they taught me that no government program can make as much of a difference as kindness and commitment on the part of neighbors and friends,” he said at a Colorado fundraiser earlier that day. This new emphasis on his ties to the Catholic Church is a change from Obama’s previous speeches and fundraisers, where he did not mention that, early in his career, he was funded and supported by liberal Catholic officials in Chicago. His Chicago supporters included a radical Catholic priest, Father Michael Pfleger, who has since been admonished by senior church officials for political advocacy.

74 28 It saddens me that even now we can conceive of the election being close. At a time when thousands should be marching on Washington with pitchforks and torches for there to be doubt about the outcome is depressing.

Posted by: Laughing in Texas at May 24, 2012 03:05 PM (dL9LY)

*****

****

There's a joke about low expectations or the low spark of high heeled boys or some shit in there..

 

 

75

Here's my prediction.....

 

Every State that doesn not have Voter ID will be ripe for Voting Fraud.

 

This is the big Flaw in all of the polling. .....The polls have no way of polling dead people and multiple registrations and illegal votes from out of state voters.

76 Who was the last president to win election but lose his home state?

I think Obama's gonna keep Virginia and a few others, but I like Nevada for the Mormon appeal, Wisconsin for the Walker stuff, and even maybe Michigan.

But not PA. Philly will not let PA go for Romney, even if the usual suspects have to vote 8 times each.

77 Its gotta be Nevada, huge Mormon population not to mention its the number one state for fleeing California businesses. All the liberals that leave Cali go to Oregon or Washington the conservatives and more importantly the independents go either Nevada, Texas, or Arizona. In the end its all about the economy

78 Okay, I don't know a lot about it, but I'm getting the sense from my in-laws, and old friends of my wife who live in MI that MI has a very good chance (well, better than it has in a while) of going Red this year.

There are no jobs in Michigan.  It's terrible there.  I hate going to visit my in-laws because it depresses me.  The Republicans took the legislature and Governors office in 2010, and they've been slowly staunching the bleeding.  They haven't had the numbers (I think) to really tackle things the way Walker has in WI, but they're doing some positive things there.

Here's the deal: people are noticing, and they're buying into the argument (from what I can tell) that, "It took half a century to get here, give us a chance to actually implement some things."

79

If we can turn Maine we should really consider annexing Nova Scotia and abit of New Brunswick.

We need to get back to our colonial roots.

80 btw, Ace, McCain won MO with 50%... by a margin of only 4900 votes!

81 "“When I was a young community organizer, I was working with Catholic churches and they taught me that no government program can make as much of a difference as kindness and commitment on the part of neighbors and friends,” he said at a Colorado fundraiser earlier that day. " To which he finished with: "And now? I run the Motherfuckin' church."

82 Who was the last president to win election but lose his home state? How many electoral votes does Kenya have?

83 >>And in the farmer state of Iowa, the government just tried to tell those farmers that their kids aren't allowed to work the farms anymore.

Something like 7% of Iowans are employed in agriculture (although I don't know if that includes illegal aliens), and the majority of them are employed by gigantic corporate entities.

The big industries are finance, insurance, and government.  There are more Iowans over 65 than under 15.

They love their subsidies--wind power, ethanol, Medicare.

Ashton Kutcher is trying to make east Des Moines an "incubator" for the "creative class."

84 The state GOP has been taken completely over by RuPaul drones rebelling against the RNC. And the last time the state's GOP had a plum opportunity, it pissed it away with the worst possible candidate. ******* It's the Clark County GOP--which is most of the state... See my comment upthread. Romney is doing a go around with- "Team Nevada". And I think they are going to use some of the Northern Nevada GOP organization. Gha can't remember that county name. The Las Vegas Journal Review has a good write up on all of it. It is one of the last Conservative newspapers in the country.

85

Well, PA still has the new voter-ID law to fall back on, even if Corbett and the GOP weakened it yesterday. They dropped the rule requiring a birth certificate when applying for the voter ID card. Something about old people and/or minorities being unable to find their BC or some such nonsense. 

Sigh.

 

86 Has anyone seen any recent polling on Missouri? Is that in the bag?

87 >>>At a time when thousands should be marching on Washington with pitchforks and torches for there to be doubt about the outcome is depressing.

Shows you how close we are to the point of no return. The HC Mandate alone should have put O in the 30's. Nope, we are a breath away from welcoming our new socialist masters if they just give us a few more things.

88 >>Who was the last president to win election but lose his home state?

Al Gore.  Oh, wait.

89 And Rove doesn't say this, but wouldn't a lot of Mormons in Nevada turn out as ground troops for Romney? Damn, a lot of California and Utahn Mormons might bus themselves in for the last weekend before the election. Eager, clean-cut troops on the ground? That's a nice thing.

Perhaps. But don't count on it being anything like the Prop 8 campaign. The church actually took a formal position on that, and asked members to push for it. They definitely will not take a formal position for Romney.

90 Nevada = Unions They vote.

91 Posted by: fluffy at May 24, 2012 03:13 PM (z9HTb)

Hell...Vic served on the Maine!

92 NC went to Obama by less than a half a percent. 14,000 votes. All margin of fraud.

93

Maine and Oregon and Iowa I put into the category of "Bonus Finishing-Move Damage."<<>

 

FATALITY.

 

I'm plumping just thinking about a rout

 

94

My 3-2-1 strategy:

3 parts red wine vinegar

2 parts lime juice

1 part crushed garlic

Mix and spread over a nice flank of yellow lab.  Grill at 325 until medium/rare - medium

Enjoy.

You're welcome.

95 From the 270 to win baseline, add NV, WI, IA, FL, NC, and VA and Romney wins.  All of those are quite doable, without considering   OH, PA or NH.

96 3 I don't believe it will even be close.

Posted by: toby928© at May 24, 2012 03:00 PM (NG097) 

 

^^^THIS^^^

 

I still remember my first presidential election - people waited in line for an hour, just to vote for Reagan.  I don't know if they liked the guy, but I do know that they Wanted.Carter.Out.

 

Carter "bowed" to a lot of bullies, too.....

97 There is an epic landslide coming. If I'm still in the US I will put 1k down for a bar tab at a moron meet-up. **** I asked the other day if folks would be interested in election night meetups. A few folks said they would be and I bet not one of them would let you pick up the tab.

98

And this raw calculus is what Team Romney has to concentrate on.  I love my Donkey flayed good and raw, but I also want to win.  If I want to influence policy, let alone put mine into place I have to win.  And to do that I have to convince not only the Republicans (about 32% of the electorate - so I have heard), but also as many disaffected Democrats and so-called independents as possible.

 

And that means not only attacking, but deflecting attacks.  And yes, there will be compromises.  Why?  Because I want to win, and here winning is everything and losing isn't anything.

99

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at May 24, 2012 03:16 PM (YmPwQ)

***

 

What a crock! You go online and get your damn BC. Yes it costs 20 bucks but I thought the state was going to pay any fees associated with getting the info. I don't know where my BC is, probably in storage in one of a hundred boxes. So when I needed proof of citizenship for my job I went online and got the certificate. Death certificates are also available through the PA state portal.

100
Or, "Say hello to my little friend!"

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at May 24, 2012 03:11 PM (nEUpB)

**

Or,  "Do you feel lucky punk"

 

101 But, to be clear, Obama is still a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure.

102 VA is doable.  Romney needs to come out of Fairfax County at no less than 46%, and he should win VA (Bush won Fairfax in 2000, and lost-barely in 2004).

PA?  Romney will need to win Bucks County in the east to help offset the dead voters in Filthadelphia.  He should carry most of the central & western counties except Erie and Allegheny.  Luzerne, Lackawanna, and Lehigh may be the key to victory in PA.

103 Hey Captain Hate are you in CLE or CIN? Just curious

104 Hell...Vic served on the Maine! Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at May 24, 2012 03:16 PM (nEUpB) I think he was the one that frenched my hammock!

105 >>We have a moderate Republican governor who cleaned up the mess after the idiot last time. The idiot's wife is running against Steve King

Chet Culver (the idiot) is collecting six figs plus benefits as an Obama appointee.

The carpetbagger running against King is married to Obama's Ag Sec.  God forbid the Vilsacks stop sucking on a government teat when Romney replaces him in January.

106 Was McCain worse than Dole?It's pretty close.

107 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable bicyclist.

108

I'm going to hold out hope for my little NH.  The thing that I think is really going to swing the election in THIS state is that we have a gubernatorial election this year with no incumbent; John Lynch (D)     has chosen not to run for another term.       If we have a lot of Dems turn out to vote for whoever ends up being the Dem candidate     for governor, then    I think we'll go Obama (much as it pains me).   But if we have MORE Republicans turn out to vote not only for Romney, but also for the Republican gubernatorial candidate, then we'll swing Romney big time.   It's all going to depend on our governor's race.  

 

The gubernatorial     candidates on either side aren't very firmed up yet, though Ovide Lamontagne is the conservative Republican most people know.  He very nearly won the Senatorial candidacy from Kelly Ayotte in 2010.      If he ends up nabbing the nomination, then I think you'll get a lot of social conservatives heading for the polls.  But you'll also get a LOT of anti-social progressives who'll turn out to vote against him.  

109 A rout? Are you guys serious? At this point, there is no indication that the election will be anything but very close. What 3 blue states, not classified as swing states will go red? I like to fap too. The economy is meh, but there aren't fucking gas lines for crissakes.

110 The problem with Nevada is that it is so heavily unionized.  And that means there's a machine there that will manufacture however many votes Obama needs... just like it did for Reid.

111

I'm still calling Pennsylvania for Romney.  Turnout in Philly will be off from 2008, there is a new voter ID law which will cut down on the busloads of New Yorkers coming in to Philly and voting for all the dead people, and Romney will carry Bucks and Delaware Counties, which Obama carried.  The blue-collar counties in the western part of the state are up in arms about Obama's War on Coal and fear EPA shutting down the fracking in the Marcellus Shale.  Jack Murtha is dead and his machine is disbanded.  Ed Rendell seems to be pedalling furiously away from the Obama campaign.  Hopefully Rick Santorum will campaign with Romney in the conservative middle of the state and those voters will turn out in droves to get rid of Obama.

 

Just judging from the voter ID and fundraising calls I have received this year vs. 2008, the GOP is miles ahead of where it was. 

112 >>>Was McCain worse than Dole?

Ole "nothing to fear" ? Yes, yes he was.

113 Was McCain worse than Dole?It's pretty close.

Yes.

114 I read that article this morning. A bit confusing IMHO.

Not the math. But it just went on a bit too long. Like a calculation that breaks your calculator or keeps it running for a day because of too many iterations.

115 Was McCain worse than Dole?It's pretty close. Posted by: steevy at May 24, 2012 03:20 PM (7W3wI) Yes- Dole was a poor candidate for sure, he did not endorse his opponent and suspend his campaign to fly back to DC to look like a freaken fool

116 Frankly I see Indiana, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio as already in the bag for Romney. Virginia is the big question but only because Obama has so expanded federal employees and an awful lot of people, regardless of political orientation, owe their jobs to Obama and they have settled in Virginia. But the good part for Romney is Pennsylvania is seriously in play.

I agree about NH but in the end I think you will see Reynold's Prefernce Cascade in play come November and if Romney is up on Obama by more than 5 in National polls he will win everywhere. Obama's only shot is a very close election.

117 Voooootes!

118 107 Was McCain worse than Dole?It's pretty close.

Posted by: steevy at May 24, 2012 03:20 PM (7W3wI)

**

Bob Dole takes a back seat no one...NO ONE!!

119 Vic served on the Maine!


As the bosun. He was a raw recruit serving on the Merrimac.

120

Way O/T:

 

Just read the drudge link to the Manhattan school making Arabic mandatory. I looked at the shining faces of those little girls, read the article, and realized Mahmoud the Teacher has it all wrong. He said he's teaching them how to say mama and dada, and "my school". That's all well and good, but what will really come in handy for the females is "Do this burqa make my ass look fat?"

 

Poor kids. It's interesting the reasoning behind the requirement. The language program director truly believes that Arabic will be the lingua franca in the not too distant future.

121 Nevada = Unions They vote. Posted by: MJ at May 24, 2012 03:16 PM (/x4oj) ******** It's primarily the SEIU in Las Vegas. They might not preform as well for Obama this time around because of the- Las Vegas convention kerfuffle.

122 >>>btw, Ace, McCain won MO with 50%... I do not have the facts but you must believe the ignorant words I'm saying. But seriously, 2008 was a Perfect Storm in favor of the Democrats. If MO stayed red in that storm, then I'm pretty comfortable saying it leans R and should not be at risk in any scenario in which Romney has a good chance.

123 Voooootes!

Posted by: Civil War Vets for Obama at May 24, 2012 03:23 PM (XNk0Y)

The DNC, Where GOTV involves a shovel and grimoire.

124 So it's unanimous,even the old geezer squish was better than McCain.

125

I'm thinking that a lot of this is just a way of keeping the  voter intensity high.   Probably by the end of the summer Rove and the other intelligencia will be saying that Romney will lose unless he can bring in NY  and CA.

126 Or, "Do you feel lucky punk" **** I've watched four Dirty Harry in the past two days and then ended late last night with Backdraft. I had forgotten what a stud Kurt Russel once was. Tonight, the Dead Pool is on AMC at 2000 hrs and then at 2200 they air Dirty Harry again. Starting tomorrow and throughout the weekend are war movies. It's been a good few movie days.

127 122 They better be phglemmy.

128 I think Romney takes NH, OH and Fla.

WI is a wild card, but that will be close.

I am not so certain that VA is a lost cause. I get the insider argument, polling, etc. but turnout is key. If VA Republicans are motivated, that becomes a very close race.

129 Romney/Dole's 4 Hour Erection 2012?

130

#110 Obama isn't pulling more than 48% even in the Democrat-skewed MSM polls.  His job approval rating is down to 47-48%, and that is usally the ceiling an incumbent gets as a % of the popular vote.  A 53-47 Romney win will be a rout. 

 

The only thing that could have saved Obama was a couple of quarters of 5%+ GDP growth, and that ain't happening.  Romney is right-it's still about the economy, and we aren't stupid.

131 I've been playing around with the maps and found the Doomsday Scenario to be very doable:

Obama wins NV, NM, CO, Iowa, Wisconsin, PA, and Virginia.
Romney wins AZ, MO, MI, FL, OH, and Indiana.

The electoral score: 269-269

132

Just read the drudge link to the Manhattan school making Arabic mandatory. I looked at the shining faces of those little girls,

 

And my immediate thought was, take a good hard look because if a not insignificant part of Islam gets its way, that's the last time you'll see their faces.

 

It is breathtaking to me how willing people are to throw women to the wolves.  Seriously, when did it become politically correct to support the raping of women, the stoning of women, throwing acid in the faces of women, the genital mutilation of women, the utter subrogation of women?  When?  Because I missed that vote.

133 I've been playing around with the maps and found the Doomsday Scenario to be very doable:

Obama wins NV, NM, CO, Iowa, Wisconsin, PA, and Virginia.
Romney wins AZ, MO, MI, FL, OH, and Indiana.

The electoral score: 269-269

Posted by: The Q at May 24, 2012 03:27 PM (LnQhT)

Solution:  Thunderdome.  Two candidates enter, one president leaves.

134

In case of an electoral tie.....I know the election gets thrown to the House...but is is the current House or the new (2013) House?

 

135 Rick Scott erased a big chunk of the MOF in Florida.  There's no way Obama can win here. 

Palm Beach county is major Dem territory.  The enthusiasm level here for Obama is subterranean.

136

  If MO stayed red in that storm

 

When she's in estrus I'll bet that thing swells three times its size  and glows like forges of Gauntelgrym!

137 Solution: Thunderdome. Two candidates enter, one president leaves. **** A terrific. A slap fight.

138 http://tinyurl.com/csawmex from the foundry, the truth about obama's skyrocketing spending

139

Pennsylvania comes down to Bucks County and it elected a Republican to the House in 2010.  If (a big IF, I know) we can keep voter fraud in Philly to a minimum, PA is going red this time. 

 

140 Rick Scott erased a big chunk of the MOF in Florida. There's no way Obama can win here. **** 53k ineligible voters being scrubbed.

141 The economy is meh, but there aren't fucking gas lines for crissakes.

Posted by: MJ at May 24, 2012 03:21 PM (/x4oj)

 

--------------------------------------------

 

That's because people can't afford or have enough gas to even make it to the filling station.

142 I wouldn't be so sure about PA going for Dem's.

They have been severely hurt by this President's economic policies or the lack thereof.

His war on coal won't help either.

143 139 Romney is actually tougher than Obama.Clearly.

144 oh, this post, last post, and recent hot air post on scott walker should shed some light on the GOP Establishment's fear of the dreaded DNC target groups of teh blacks, teh unions, and government employees. Look at what the Unions couldn't do in Wisconsin despite throwing basically every thing they could at it. Why is the establishment scared? HotAir is right, if the union thugs are impotent in Wisconsin, then why hold back? Who are they trying to placate? It seems like the soft, chewy middle of this country can see the difference between statist party politics cum reward spoils system and those who are opposed to the actual, reality based results of DNC politics. Ugh, it sucks we're talking about squeaking out a victory, but at least Rove has identified the important battles.

145 >>>I know the election gets thrown to the House.

You have to wait for the electoral votes to actually be counted (Someone might be faithless) which means January, which means next House, not this one.

146 also, we need to identify what us rank and file nobodies can do in the upcoming election to prevent voter fraud which is the fourth leg of the DNC voting bloc system.

147 133 I've been playing around with the maps and found the Doomsday Scenario to be very doable:

Obama wins NV, NM, CO, Iowa, Wisconsin, PA, and Virginia.
Romney wins AZ, MO, MI, FL, OH, and Indiana.

The electoral score: 269-269

Posted by: The Q at May 24, 2012 03:27 PM (LnQhT)

Yes, I got that same scenario. That's why I think it will be either 2000 part II or else the election goes to the House. Ugly days either way.

148 Obama is unelectable.  Romney will win Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, and New Hampshire.  If the new voter ID law in PA stands up, he wins there too.

Romney with 300+ EVs.

I love the way you keep talking about fundamentals, and economics, and people know things are hard and could be better.  Then in the next breath talk yourself into people voting like idiots.

Jay Cost did an analysis a few years back.  You can only get a close EV election if the margin of victory is less than .5%.  Obama is on track to get no more than 47% of the vote.  A 51-47 election nets over 300 EVs.

Chill.

149

A slap fight.

 

 

Careful.  We're not allowed to have anything nice like that.

150 I'm not going to go all Dick Morris nuts, but I will say at this stage it's a Romney win, and by sufficiently more than can be influenced by fraud. Mitt is It!

151 Purp: I have the same sense in Fl. I travel between Tampa and Boca Raton once a month. Obama is not well liked, even among the affluent coast. Also, everyone in Boca seems to have really big fake tits, regardless of age.

152 That little prick Ross Perot cost Dole KY, MO, FL, AZ, NV, and OR. That's why Dole won only 159 electoral votes.

153 What is Romney's route to Obama's rout?

154 >>>It is breathtaking to me how willing people are to throw women to the wolves. Seriously, when did it become politically correct to support the raping of women, the stoning of women, throwing acid in the faces of women, the genital mutilation of women, the utter subrogation (sic) of women? When? Because I missed that vote.<<<

It's The People's Republic of NYC and Bloomberg.

They will also force you to eat broccoli, not use salt, melt down your guns and not deep fry foods.

Now, do you want to ask that question again?

155  One thing is for sure. The October surprises are going to be epic.

Economic collapse, war, radical policy shifts, nothing is off the table.

Posted by: runninrebel at May 24, 2012 03:29 PM (N/1Dm)

 

-------------------------------------

 

That's for sure.  And one can trust that the dems have been planning it since 2009, just for this eventuality.

156
There is an epic landslide coming.
Posted by: runninrebel





Landslide presidential victories, typically agreed to start at about 60% of the popular vote and 80% of the electoral votes, just aren't possible at the moment*. There are too many solid partisan states that each campaign has in their pocket like so many nickels and dimes.

A Romney wave 'taint happening.



* Absent a significant third party challenger like Perot to eff up the math.

157

128....I had forgotten what a stud Kurt Russel once was.

 

Blasphemy! .....Well, at least you have now been reaquainted with his hotness.

 

158 So McCain was worse than Dole. At least Dole can blame some of it on Perot.

159

#125:

 

I laughed - that's good!

160 We doesn't like Commies too good here in Iowa, or the EPA Terrorists either telling us whut to do, well except for in Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Des Moines, and Waterloo. Prety much we will resist we much this commie brigade!

161

I need to get an update from my buddy in Fairfax County, VA.  He's been a  top GOP organizer there for 25 years.  He told me early in 2008 that Obama would win Virginia and I thought he was nuts.  He is very conservative and plugged in to the conservative network there. He will know what the enthusiasm and organization and fundraising is like on the GOP side so far.

 

Also, if there were any shanigans in the voting in Fairfax in 2008, that won't happen this year.  One of my BFFs is the Registrar there now, and she is a former Virginia Secretary of Elections and an election law expert. 

 

I'm not saying Romney will win Fairfax, but I expect him to do a lot better than McCain did.  Romney is a good fit for suburban professional voters who are not social-cons but are fiscal cons.  There are still a lot of private sector professionals living there, it isn't wall-to-wall federal employees like Arlington.

162

must be "poll" day around here... only one poll matters, and it always comes out on the day after the first Tuesday in Nov.

every other poll is designed to make you believe one thing or another, it is NEVER to accurately inform you.

...your soaking in it right now...

 

 

 

 

163 One thing is for sure. The October surprises are going to be epic. Economic collapse, war, radical policy shifts, nothing is off the table. **** Remember, there are two Obama movies coming out in the Fall. One by Bigelow, the other by Harvey Weinstein called something like "Code Name Geronimo."

164 Draft Nader/Kucinich!

165 >>>the October surprises are going to be epic.

The only thing that helps Obama is GDP growth at annual rate of 6% or better.

166 Remember, there are two Obama movies coming out in the Fall. One by Bigelow, the other by Harvey Weinstein called something like "Code Name Geronimo." Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 24, 2012 03:34 PM (piMMO) And we all know how well movies like "Lions for Lambs," "Redacted" and "In the Valley of Elah" did. I say, bring it. It will just infuriate the electorate that much more.

167 Romney is actually tougher than Obama.Clearly. **** Yeah, but Obama has the edge in hair-pulling.

168 I can't believe that Obamlics would still vote for Obama. He's at war with their church, but they care not for yay Obama is awesomer than God and Jesus and all those words that they pray.

169 Romney winning is as easy as 9, 9, 9.

170

I love the way you keep talking about fundamentals, and economics, and people know things are hard and could be better. Then in the next breath talk yourself into people voting like idiots.

 

It comes down to who those voters blame for their dire straits.   Do they      blame      Obama and his ruinous policies, or do they     believe     Obama when he says the shitty economy is the fault of obstructionist Republicans?       If they're still hanging on to some tattered vestiges of Hope and Change, they    could easily stick with Obama.   "He hasn't had enough time in office to undo all the things Bush did wrong.  Bush got eight years to screw up the economy; Obama should have eight years to put it right."    That's the kind of irrational logic such voters would use.   That's why     we can't become complacent and assume this election is in the bag until it     IS in the bag, with the drawstring tied tight, on the first Wednesday in November.

171 Also, everyone in Boca seems to have really big fake tits, regardless of age.

Boca is a planet unto itself.  Preening, classless, gauche, self absorbed.  It has none of the old money charm and grace that the island of Palm Beach has (minus Trump of course)

172 And we all know how well movies like "Lions for Lambs," "Redacted" and "In the Valley of Elah" did. I say, bring it. It will just infuriate the electorate that much more. *** I hope they spend hundreds of millions making them. Hmmm. I wonder how much access they will have to our military equipment.

173

Oh, I got beat to it in the very first comment.

174

 

No one was expecting a 'major landslide' when Reagan got one.

He was down in the polls....right up till the election. ....It made people more motivated to get out and vote for him.

 

So personally....I think that  all this talk of an "epic landslide" could be what prevents it from happening.

 

It should be like Fight Club. .....You don't talk about it.

175

I love the way you keep talking about fundamentals, and economics, and people know things are hard and could be better. Then in the next breath talk yourself into people voting like idiots.

 

Because its using real world observed data.

176 Romney is going to crush the JEF. Not even going to be close.
People lie on polls. Racism, don't ya know.

177 I love the way you keep talking about fundamentals, and economics, and people know things are hard and could be better. Then in the next breath talk yourself into people voting like idiots.



That's because when race is involved, people vote like idiots. Right now I'm hoping for the best but I think it will be unclear who the president is as late as early January 2013.

178

Also, everyone in Boca seems to have really big fake tits, regardless of age. <<<

 

Lead us! Lead your people to the promised land!

179 70 22 yes he has to win back North Carolina, which did in fact go to Obama, and by like 7 points IIRC.

NC is a likely GOP pick-up... but it would in fact be a pick-up.
Posted by: ace at May 24, 2012 03:05 PM (aw5Tx)

14,000 votes Ace. That's what The Gayest First President won NC by in 2008.

He'll lose the state by 100K this time.
=============
Yup. 21.5% of NC is black.
The JEF got 65% black turn-out in nationally 2008. In 2004, Kerry only got a 55% turn-out.
The JEF got 2,123,390 votes in NC. While we don't know how many of those votes were from blacks, if we assume 21.5% of all voters were black and plug in the 95% that voted for him, that's 433,702 black votes for the JEF in 2008.

If he even drops to the still historically high of 60% black participation in NC, there is no chance he keeps NC.
No "historic" election to jazz turnout, and the "gay for pay" and NC is 100% for Romney.

180 I'm not just saying this as a kneejerk Obama hater, nobody gives a shit aboot Osama bin Laden. People are happy he's dead, but Osama was so out of the picture for the last 8 years, it's irrelevant that he's dead or alive.

181

Ahhh Kurt Russell - he has now been a tv/movie star for six decades.  And isn't he pretty much a hard core libertarian?

 

brb going to sit by my picture in the attic for a bit

182 The only thing that helps Obama is GDP growth at annual rate of 6% or better. **** And just yesterday the CBO issued a "dire warning" that if the tax cuts are allowed to expired along with certain spending cuts not being implemented, 2013 growth will be disastrous. They projected something like -1.6% for Q1 with only .5% for the entire year.

183 Boca is a planet unto itself. Preening, classless, gauche, self absorbes Posted by: Purp (@PurpAv) at May 24, 2012 03:37 PM

Sounds a lot like LA too.  My wife is a UCLA grad, she says all the time, "Everyone in LA no matter who they are wants to be the same thing.......twenty-one."

184 must be "poll" day around here... only one poll matters, and it always comes out on the day after the first Tuesday in Nov.
every other poll is designed to make you believe one thing or another, it is NEVER to accurately inform you.
...your soaking in it right now...

Posted by: the commentor formerly known as Shoey at May 24, 2012 03:34 PM (jdOk/)

 

-------------------------------

 

THIS!  Polls are used for nothing more than making news for lazy journolists and to make bloggers scratch their heads.

185 The Democrat convention in NC will do more to help Romney win NC and VA than anything Romney does. I just have that feeling things are gonna get ugly.

186

must be "poll" day around here... only one poll matters, and it always comes out on the day after the first Tuesday in Nov.
every other poll is designed to make you believe one thing or another, it is NEVER to accurately inform you.
...your soaking in it right now...

***

***

 

Thats right! Only one poll matter and thats Bob Dole's poll!!

 

187 I don't believe it will even be close.

No sign of a preference cascade yet.

But then yu may never see it until it's right on you.

188

Sounds a lot like LA too. My wife is a UCLA grad, she says all the time, "Everyone in LA no matter who they are wants to be the same thing.......twenty-one."

 

I think it was John Waters who said that in LA everyone looks like a porn star. 

189 It amazes me that Americans hate America so much that they're willing to destroy it by putting this Eurotrash communist asshole in The White House for 4 more years.

Why do you hate your country so?

190 >>>I'm not saying Romney will win Fairfax, but I expect him to do a lot better than McCain did. Romney is a good fit for suburban professional voters who are not social-cons but are fiscal cons. There are still a lot of private sector professionals living there, it isn't wall-to-wall federal employeeslike Arlington.

Romney will lose Fairfax by something approaching 60-40.  If he does better than that, then he's winning the state comfortably.  If he hits that number, it's going to be a squeaker.  But even in Bob McDonnell's mega-blowout in 2009 (with a ~20% margin of victory statewide), he only TIED Creigh Deeds in Fairfax at 50/50. 

Trust me -- I live next door to Fairfax, and that place has changed radically over the last eight years.

191 Actually I don't see McCain worse than Dole. Dole was an atrociously bad campaigner and got the nomination based on seniority. McCain in a way was probable the only Republican candidate with a real shot of winning in 08. Any Dem candidate had a strong advantage after 8 years of a Republican President. McCain, having had real bad blood with Bush in 2000 and being a thorn in his side for 8 years, was uniquely qualified to make the argument that even being a Republican he would be a significant change from Bush. He just couldn't and didn't make the sale. His pick of Palin really changed the game up to his advantage but his making a big deal  and stopping the campaign to deal with the banking crisis and doing nothing kileld him. He needed to show he was really a maverick there and he didn't. He need to go against TARP. He probably still would have lost but the lection would have been much closer.

192 I think it was John Waters who said that in LA everyone looks like a porn star Posted by: alexthechick at May 24, 2012 03:41 PM


Well, that's not a bad thing...is it?

193 >>well except for in Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Des Moines, and Waterloo.

And Dubuque and Davenport, and everywhere refugees from Chicago go and bring the dysfunction with them.


I'm not sure Indiana's in the bag for Romney, either; Lake County is Chicago, and Marion County's not much better.

194
It would be a large miracle for Pennsylvania to go red in the Fall.

Take my word for it -- I've lived here 45 years.

It will only happens if there' a huge, nationwide preference cascade in November.

195 I'd pay good money to see NC state police beating Occutard convention protesters.

196 Trust me -- I live next door to Fairfax, and that place has changed radically over the last eight years.Posted by: Jeff B. at May 24, 2012 03:42 PM (xAJql)

How is is possible for Fairfax to be more blue?  Shit, they're so blue now they're almost black.

197 Conversely, the protests at the GOP convention in FL will be such an ugly display of Leftists, and they will get out of hand every single day, that they will turn all of America against them. In other words, the protests at the convention will serve as a GOTV for Mitt Romney.

198

My prediction is that by the end of Tuesday election night, we will wonder why we were so worried.  The opposite of the 2008 feeling, when we wondered why we thought we had a chance.  Romney will take WI, PA, MI, NH, Iowa, NM, and NV.  No one else will predict this, but it is what will happen. 

199

 

... and by the end of the long, hotly fought contest, the crowd began chanting softly, then building to a deafening crescendo:

 

Rocky!  Rocky!  Rocky!  ROCKY!  ROCKY!  ROCKY!

 

Romney!  Romney!  Romney!  ROMNEY!  ROMNEY!  ROMNEY!

 

Mitt:    "Adrian!"     "Ann Louise!"

200 >>>I'm not sure Indiana's in the bag for Romney, either; Lake County is Chicago, and Marion County's not much better.

Oh it's in the bag.  I mean, if there were a metaphorical bag marked "ELECTORAL VOTES," it would practically have the words "Indiana" and "North Carolina" written on them. 

201
Who was the last president to win election but lose his home state?




...While many successful candidates have won the presidency without winning their birth state, only three (James Knox Polk, Woodrow Wilson and Richard Nixon) have won election despite losing their state of residence.

Polk is the only man to win the presidency but lose both states of birth and residence.



BTW - Romney is Michigan born and I believe a California resident now.

202 >>Do they blame Obama and his ruinous policies, or do they believe Obama when he says the shitty economy is the fault of obstructionist Republicans?

Yeah...we're fucked.

203 The Key is to, before the conventions, tie Obama to all these fringe radical groups such as Occupy. Which should be easy peasy because Obama and Occupy parrot the same marxist bolshevik nonsense.

204 The preference cascade will happen.  Obama will win on the West coast, the NE and IL.  But he will lose one of those states, maybe more.  I could see one or more of WA, OR, NJ, Maine going to Romney.

205

Well, that's not a bad thing...is it?

Of course it is!  Porn is bad and degrading and stuff!

What?  What's on all those external drives I have?  Versions of the Bible, I'm a good girl I am. 

206 "Because its using real world observed data."

Bullshit.  He got 52% because there was no record and no vetting.  Unless a few million people have been in a coma for 3.5 years, that magic isn't happening again.

He pulled the lions share of the Ind vote in 2008.  Not a single poll has shown him winning the Ind vote this year.  Every poll that shows him ahead has over sampled Dem voters.

OT - There was a guy who reported in Dec that the cooked polls were going to be a campaign tactic.  They are all over sampling outside any reasonable turnout model.

Again, if a candidate wins by over .5% he wins the EV contest.  Every time.  Romney is going to win by at least 3% and I think 4%.

207 I wonder what it is about living in high population-density areas that makes people vote for more state control of their lives.

208 Oh geez... Totally OT from Drudge: LOS ANGELES (CBS) — The Recording Industry Association of America is reportedly suing now-defunct music downloading service LimeWire for $72 trillion. Yes, we said trillion.

209 RE: the guy who asked what big states are in play WI and PA, for a start. I don't get the claim that even though these states elect R governors (and not squishes) that they must be in the bag for Obama. Those are statewide elections. Everyone votes. And the R governors -- not squishes at all -- make the sale and yet these states are completely out of reach for Romney? Why?

210

OMG...just read some of the chow pow wow book reviews in the side thread to Amazon.

***

Too Funneh LMFAO

211

and by the end of the long, hotly fought contest, the crowd began chanting softly, then building to a deafening crescendo:

 

Ummmmmmm. You do remember that in Rocky, Rocky loses, right?

212 Time for another Leftie auto-beclowning:

#RomneyEconomics

Fly, monkeys, fly!

213 What? What's on all those external drives I have? Versions of the Bible, I'm a good girl I am Posted by: alexthechick at May 24, 2012 03:47 PM (VtjlW)

Bible, huh?

If I bring some tequila and I come over and watch some....uhhhhhh....Bible study?

214 Frankly I think NJ is in play.

215 187 Ahhh Kurt Russell - he has now beena tv/movie star for six decades. And isn't he pretty much a hard core libertarian?

Posted by: alexthechick at May 24, 2012 03:39 PM (VtjlW)

 

------------

 

Yeah. ....He's pretty conservative....but he doesn't talk politics much at all.

 

And yeah...Kurt Russell started working as an actor when he was 10 yrs old.

...I didn't know until recently that he played a 'jungle boy' on Gilligan's Island.

216 Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, Lamar Alexander and Pat Buchanan. And Dick friggin Lugar.

217 To me it's Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

218 >>>How is is possible for Fairfax to be more blue? Shit, they're so blue now they're almost black.

Not really.  Parts of it sent GOP congressmen to DC for quite awhile (and we nearly took Gerry Connolly's seat away from the Dems in 2010.)  It's been a fairly quick shift, as people exit Maryland (primarily Montgomery County, where I live) and DC, and new government employees come to the region and flock to NoVA where taxes are lower...but keep their filthy liberal voting habits.

Fairfax County, VA is very much like Bucks Co. in PA, or the collar counties in IL like Lake and DuPage: formerly 'moderate Republican' strongholds that have turned blue as changing demographics brought in more Dem voters, and previously GOP voters became estranged as the national GOP disappeared more and more up its own asshole with respect to social conservatism and big spending.

219 Here's what I'm thinking: Nevada, Nevada, Nevada.

2010.  Harry Reid.

F*** Nevada, F*** nevada, F*** Nevada.

220 215 I wonder what it is about living in high population-density areas that makes people vote for more state control of their lives.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at May 24, 2012 03:47 PM (/kI1Q)

People want to be where the power and/or prosperity is. Thus an area that deals in power or money will get lots of people near it. It will get crowded, and people will want government intervention either to deal with the problems of crowding or because they went where the money and power is in order to live off the crumbs of others.

221 Conversely, the protests at the GOP convention in FL will be such an ugly display of Leftists, and they will get out of hand every single day, that they will turn all of America against them. **** The good news: Sticks and "pieces of wood" have been banned during the convention. Guns, however, are not (thanks Gov. Scott), so at least the locals will still have the ability to defend themselves.

222 Bullshit. He got 52% because there was no record and no vetting. Unless a few million people have been in a coma for 3.5 years...Posted by: Dave in Fla at May 24, 2012 03:47 PM (LoNRD)

Well there your problem right there.  That's exactly what's going on.  They're in willing, self-induced comas caused by a poor understanding of economics and a tenuous grasp on reality.

223 >>>Frankly I think NJ is in play.

Okay, now you're just fucking with us.

224

Posted by: ace at May 24, 2012 03:48 PM (aw5Tx)

***

 

Romney is tailormade for the Bucks and Montco GOP and indie types.

225 If Tampa weren't so far away, I'd be over there egging the protesters on as much as I could.  5th column efforts in that kind of scenario can work.

226 213 Well, that's not a bad thing...is it?
Of course it is! Porn is bad and degrading and stuff!
What? What's on all those external drives I have? Versions of the Bible, I'm a good girl I am.

Posted by: alexthechick at May 24, 2012 03:47 PM (VtjlW)

 

And you've got the catholic school girl outfit to prove it right.

227 209

Nixon's residence state was NY, right?

Romney might lose all 4 states where he could claim residence: California, Massachusetts, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

228

The preference cascade will start after the debates, just like it did with Reagan.  Obama won't lay a glove on Romney and voters will see him as a perfectly reasonable and well-qualified alternative. 

 

Obama is Jimmy Carter Part Deux.

229 Ummmmmmm. You do remember that in Rocky, Rocky loses, right?

 

Posted by: alexthechick at May 24, 2012 03:48 PM (VtjlW)

 

You have your version of the movie, I have mine. 

230 216 Oh geez...

Totally OT from Drudge:

LOS ANGELES (CBS) — The Recording Industry Association of America is reportedly suing now-defunct music downloading service LimeWire for $72 trillion. Yes, we said trillion.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 24, 2012 03:48 PM (piMMO)

**

Hehe...did Dr. Evil deliver the subpeona??

231 Off tergid Dole sock.

232 222 Frankly I think NJ is in play.

Posted by: ace at May 24, 2012 03:49 PM (aw5Tx)

Can I have a puff of what you're smoking, ace? No offense but that ship sailed a long time ago.

233 Fairfax County, VA is very much like Bucks Co. in PA, or the collar counties in IL like Lake and DuPage: formerly 'moderate Republican' strongholds that have turned blue as changing demographics brought in more Dem voter Posted by: Jeff B. at May 24, 2012 03:50 PM (xAJql)

Yeah, I live in Alexandria and I'm active in Republican politics on a local level.  I just don't see it.  Fairfax is deep, deep blue.

But you're right on Connolly.  I SO thought he was going to go down in 2010.

234 I'll say it again: Democrat voter fraud on a massive scale. 

Do not discount this.  Should Obama win via this method, who will prosecute him?  Eric Holder?  Ha ha ha.

235 Those are statewide elections. Everyone votes. And the R governors -- not squishes at all -- make the sale and yet these states are completely out of reach for Romney?

Why?

Weren't Tommy Thompson and Tom Ridge both pro-choice? And wasn't Tommy Thompson even in favor of Obamacare? Point is, they seem to be more socially liberal than the R prez noms.

236

Some people clearly think this thing is up for grabs.  I just don't see it.  I know some of you spend a lot of time analyzing trends and polls and what ifs and whatnot, but I cannot imagine a scenario where the country asks the question: four more years of this? And anything close to 50% saying "Yes!  We want more of the same!!"

 

I just can't see it. 

237 Bullshit. He got 52% because there was no record and no vetting. Obama won 53% because he's the greatest presidential candidate in our nation's history. This nothing-of-a-man not only won the highest office in the land, he won big. Until we start being honest and admit that Barack Obama is really good at one thing, i.e., campaigning, we won't defeat him.

238 re WI being a 'must win' for Obama, has anyone floated the possibility of Feingold replacing Biden on the ticket?

239
Any Dem candidate had a strong advantage after 8 years of a Republican President.
Posted by: Rocks



Looking at recent history:

Reagan followed by significant Bush I victory
Nixon followed by narrow Ford loss
Eisenhower followed by narrow Nixon loss

Not saying Mccain was a lock to win, but am saying it took a special type of suck to lose as badly as he did.

240 People you cannot compare the 2008 election with this one.
Barack Obama had novelty, no record to hurt him, an atmosphere of hatred toward Republicans, a horrible opponent nobody but him and his daughter wanted in office, and the "change" slogan to surf into office with. None of that applies now, and its what got him a win.
The only advantage Obama carries with him now that he had then was the supportive media and they're not nearly as in the tank now as they were then. Sure, they'll sell their souls to defeat a Republican, but they aren't throwing their panties on the stage and fainting over him any longer. A lot of them don't really like Obama any more.
And Romney is a hell of a lot better campaigner than McCain ever was. And the economy has been awful for years, and people unfairly lay that at the president's feet. He loses, folks. He loses big unless something major changes.

241 Hehe...did Dr. Evil deliver the subpeona?? **** He taped it to his cat and then air bombed them for effect. The note read: I can haz $72 trillion?

242 Nixon's residence state was NY, right?

No, CA.

243 Frankly I think NJ is in play. Posted by: ace at May 24, 2012 03:49 PM (aw5Tx) Can I have a puff of what you're smoking, ace? No offense but that ship sailed a long time ago. Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 24, 2012 03:54 PM (RD7QR) I am not so sure about that. Is it a long shot right now...probably, but before you write off NJ lets see how this plays out. We elected a Republican Gov remember

244 Romney is a wrecking machine! And he's hungry!

245 Of course there's going to be fraud. There is every election. Democrats probably get 5% or so of their margin from fraud. That's not going to be enough, they cannot generate an extra 5%, especially with so many anti-fraud and watchdog groups looking so closely at the election this time around.

246 Nixon's residence state was NY, right? No, CA. Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 24, 2012 03:55 PM (RD7QR) Are you sure? After he lost out for Gov. of CA, he moved to NYC to work in a NY Law Firm. Did he change his State Residence?

247 Romney is a wrecking machine! And he's hungry!Posted by: Dr. Varno at May 24, 2012 03:56 PM (I13eJ)

Let's not start soaping each others backs yet, gentlemen.

248

 

Mickey:  Women weaken legs!

 

 

 

Advantage:  Obama

249

Posted by: davidt at May 24, 2012 03:54 PM (hKbMq)

***

 

Yes that is such a commonsensical idea that surely Her Highness the Queen of Fucking Shit Up (Ms. Jarrett) will nix it.

250 Haaahahahaa! I just saw the Godfather reference in the sidebar.

251 And if there's a way to squeeze in Gilligan's Island in this thread, only you morons would find it.

252 Are you sure? After he lost out for Gov. of CA, he moved to NYC to work in a NY Law Firm. Did he change his State Residence?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at May 24, 2012 03:57 PM (05RcU)

Oh, not sure about that. I seem to recall him being described as a Californian in '72 but I was only 8 at the time.

253

You know... I'm tired of living in States where my vote apparently does not count, and therefore they won't be here running for office.

 

We really need to go to a proportional vote eletoral system... with the winner of the State getting the 2 extra electoral votes...

 

But with the Repubs invested in the current system, I won't hold my breath...

254 I just hope there's an election to vote in...yes, I feel negative today.

255
@256

Nixon was a New York resident for the '68 election.

256 Harry Reud is a Mormon. Wouldn't it be nice if Nevada dud go for Romney? Seriously, I think it's going to be a landslide for Romney. Even the Blacks are against him.

257 252

I thought he had moved out of Cali after losing to Pat Brown in 62?

Maybe he moved to NY (definitely moved to NJ for awhile) after impeachment

258

I wonder what it is about living in high population-density areas that makes people vote for more state control of their lives.

 

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at May 24, 2012 03:47 PM (/kI1Q)

 

Most of them are renters, who have no property stake in their community and pay no property taxes, and have little appreciation for private property rights.  Living in a large, dense city makes you more inclined to think "society" needs "rules" so that chaos does not ensue.  Most city dwellers are wage-earners, W-2 employees who have little concept of how much they pay in income taxes because they never have to write a check to the IRS.  So they are disconnected from the true cost of government.  They are suckers for politicians who promise them more services and goodies because they don't think they will have to pay for any of it.

 

Suburban and rural residents tend to be homeowners and landowners, they pay property taxes, more of them own businesses or are independent contractors or receive bonuses, and have to write big checks to the IRS.  They commute and are more sensitive to the price of gas.  They don't feel they need as many societal rules because they aren't crowded by their neighbors.

259 Johnny Ola knows all those places in Havana.

260 At the end of the day it comes down to this: Will we be able to field more living, legitimate, one-time-voters than they can field dead, illegal, multiple voters?

261 I really can't take the fawning coverage of Moochelle anymore.God,make it stop.

262 Purp: Oh, I plan on attending. I won't be egging them on, but I will be laughing and recording.

263 Romney is a wrecking machine! And he's hungry! **** We'll know he's really hungry when he throws down the knife and fork and starts chowing down with his hands.

264 "Gilligan, if those tiki torches die, we die,"

265 269 Johnny Ola knows all those places in Havana. Posted by: Cicero at May 24, 2012 04:00 PM (QKKT0) You broke my heart, Cicero. By the way, I don't know any Italians with the name of "Ola." In fact, many of Puzo's/Coppola's names I've never heard. Fangoul!

266 OT: 'afternoon 'rons. I was wondering, is anyone else using the URL shortener at http://scoamf.us/ ? I don't think anyone else is taking advantage of this URL shortening site with the wonderful name Did Admiral Ackbar create the site? Is it a trap? Is the attack 'Squatch going to kick down my front door and confiscate my key lime pie and all my bacon ?

267

Until we start being honest and admit that Barack Obama is really good at one thing, i.e., campaigning, we won't defeat him.

 

Posted by: Soothsayer at May 24, 2012 03:54 PM (jUytm)

 

But he is pretty much sucking at campaigning so far this year.  All the more reason why he is going to lose.  His one qualification to be President was that he ran a great campaign.  He isn't even doing that this time. 

268 Nixon spent his later years in NJ, Upper Saddle River I believe. Based on this factoid alone, I'm calling NJ for Romney...in a landslide.

269

You people still believe Obama is going to do well enough to be the democrat nominee.  I donÂ’t.

Forget what you hear the pundits say on TV and the headlines generated by the polls.  If you look at the historical data of GDP, real unemployment, gas prices and the rest, Obama doesnÂ’t stand a chance.  Every time you see a poll showing Obama even remotely close to Romney, just look at the details.  In all instances, the poll will either be of adults instead of likely voters or be weighted with some ridiculous factor giving democrats 8 to 12 additional points.

The people running the campaigns and in the parties know the real numbers.  ThatÂ’s why there were so many retirements from the house and senate and why the mega donors on the left are sitting this one out.

Right now, they are in full panic mode and they are trying to see if it can be salvaged.  No incumbent with a ghost of a chance would spend this much money this early in the cycle if they werenÂ’t in big trouble.  Obama and the democrat powers will need to come to a decision in late June on whether Obama is going to be the candidate.

His option is to drop out, saying that is best for a country that is just not ready for a black president, and that he will run again when the time is right.  ThatÂ’s how he will explain keeping a few hundred million in campaign donations.  Hillary will “reluctantly” step in and the election will be close due to the increased interest and the “historic” nature.

270 Johnny Ola knows all those places in Havana. **** And just like our own administration, Fredo can't keep a damn secret.

271 >>>But you're right on Connolly. I SO thought he was going to go down in 2010.

It was the Ken Buck/Jane Norton fiasco on a smaller level: we had a GOP candidate for that seat in Pat Herrity who wouldn't have just defeated Connolly, he would have pasted him: massive crossover appeal.  But instead the Tea Party types insisted on nominating Keith Fimian, who was more than a little sketchy in his private life and too conservative for the district in any event...and we blew it.  Herrity would have been an easy bet for reelection in 2012 too.  Now Connolly has been redistricted into a safer seat, and we're never getting it back absent some sea-change.

272 Forget what you hear the pundits say on TV and the headlines generated by the polls. If you look at the historical data of GDP, real unemployment, gas prices and the rest, Obama doesnÂ’t stand a chance Posted by: jwest at May 24, 2012 04:02 PM (ZDsRL)

You underestimate the power of mouth breathers in large groups.

273 Obama won 53% because he's the greatest presidential candidate in our nation's history.

Obama won because he had that perfect combo of stylish racial and cultural qualities, the right connections, a fawning media, and the ability to speechify real good, at a time when the country was (with some justification) disgusted with the party that had held the White House for 8 years, while economic conditions were worsening, and the GOP was fielding one of its weakest candidates in living memory.

Some of those have turned.  Some have not.  Some are yet to be proven.  Any skill in 'campaigning' comes because it's all he does.  He's the political equivalent of Rain Man, it's all he does, so he'd good at it, even though he can probably only barely dress himself without assistance.

Is our opposition formidable?  Yes--but let's be realistic, both about who the real opponent is (hint:  Obama's just the front man), and about how 'invincible' it is (hint:  momento mori, m****rf****rs).

274 Whaddya mean "You people"?

275 You underestimate the power of mouth breathers in large groups. **** Is that nothing like the wisdom of crowds?

276  just can't see it.

Posted by: BurtTC at May 24, 2012 03:54 PM (TOk1P)

 

If they do it will be the endgame for the country and I am not being overly dramatic. We may have at best a 20% chance to right the ship with a Romney win and total collapse with four more years of the JEF.

277 246 Some people clearly think this thing is up for grabs. I just don't see it. I know some of you spend a lot of time analyzing trends and polls and what ifs and whatnot, but I cannot imagine a scenario where the country asks the question: four more years of this? And anything close to 50% saying "Yes! We want more of the same!!"

I just can't see it.

Posted by: BurtTC at May 24, 2012 03:54 PM (TOk1P)

That's because you're a racist h8ter who h8tes.
So there, because I'm right.

278

Weren't Tommy Thompson and Tom Ridge both pro-choice? And wasn't Tommy Thompson even in favor of Obamacare? Point is, they seem to be more socially liberal than the R prez noms.

 

Er, I think he's talking about Scott Walker in WI and Tom Corbett in PA.

I'm still not sure about my home state of PA. We did elect Corbett and Toomey, and the state legislature is GOP controlled. Not seeing much Obama love in Philly besides the usual banshees. The fraudsters may not be as motivated.

279 WI and PA, for a start. I don't get the claim that even though these states elect R governors (and not squishes) that they must be in the bag for Obama. Those are statewide elections. Everyone votes. And the R governors -- not squishes at all -- make the sale and yet these states are completely out of reach for Romney? Why? ************* PA Electoral history Last 10 Elections ( State voted with the overall winning candidate) 1972 R 1976 D 1980 R 1984 R 1988 R 1992 D 1996 D 2000 D 2004 D 2008 D Governor? Tom Ridge January 17, 1995 Democrat won PA Presidential in 1996. Maybe Dick Thornburgh proves your thesis but it would be older data.

280 This is a little OT but if I'm using a sonic toothbrush do I really need to floss? Posted by: runninrebel at May 24, 2012 04:03 PM (N/1Dm) Yes

281 I'm not sure Obama is a good campaigner or not.  He is not a great orator or communicator like Reagan, nor is he a great politician like Clinton.  He is probably closer to Bush than anyone.  Bush certainly had some weaknesses as a campaigner, but he was also very good at certain things.  His communication skills may not have been as good as Obama, but he stayed on message and never wandered off like Obama does.  And while his speeches may not be as good, I'm willing to bet he was a better retail campaigner than Obama.  But in the end, more people agreed with Bush's policies than not, which is why he won twice.  I don't see this country agreeing with Obama's positions.  In fact, the country has flat out rejected almost all of his positions.  This is why it is hard to see him winning at all.  And come election night, he will lose big.  Not just because he is a bad campaigner, but he is campaigning on bad ideas that the country rejects.  In 2008, he was largely campaigning on conservative ideas - though we knew that was not going to be how he governed.  He can't do that anymore. 

282 Is that nothing like the wisdom of crowds?Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 24, 2012 04:05 PM (piMMO)

Nothing like it.  Nothing at all.

283 I'm probably wrong but I see VA as being incredibly reliant on Fed spending for most of it's economy. I think it's too big of an ask to get individual voters in a gubmint cheese based economy to vote against "the Obama stash". Like I said, I'm probably wrong but I just don't know what VA does on its own.

284 His option is to drop out, saying that is best for a country
that is just not ready for a black president, and that he will run again when
the time is right. ThatÂ’s how he will
explain keeping a few hundred million in campaign donations. Hillary will “reluctantly” step in and the
election will be close due to the increased interest and the “historic” nature.

Posted by: jwest at May 24, 2012 04:02 PM (ZDsRL)

 

Forget what ace is smoking.  Clearly jwest has the good stuff. 

 

Democrats are gong to force the first black president to not run, and the man so full of himself that Narcissus says "Damn that dude really loves himself" is going to step down because you can actually convince him that he will lose.  Yeah right

285 Is there some way Romney can bring up The Community Organizer's rundown tenements? Remember Grove Parc Plaza? That was another scandal Obama got away with in 2008.

286 Posted by: KayInMaine's panty liner at May 24, 2012 04:05 PM (Qxe/p)

Just reading that nic makes me throw up a little in my mouth.

287 I think Thornburgh was 1979. Still Republicans haven't won PA since 1988 yet it hasn't been for lack of effort and money.

288 Like I said, I'm probably wrong but I just don't know what VA does on its own.Posted by: Deety at May 24, 2012 04:06 PM (dQCkw)

10% of VA's economy comes from the Pentagon.  Northern VA is blue....but not the rest of the state.  Outside of the Beltway it is deep red.

289
Er, I thinkhe's talking about Scott Walker in WI and Tom Corbett in PA

My brain is still in 2004.

290 NSFW http://tinyurl.com/c7s6amy You are welcome.

291 thesis=hypothesis pffffft

292

Forget Fairfax, it is lost, and I think Loudoun will be close.   Combination of Fairfax demographics in the Eastern part of the county and a love of Barry O by upper class white voters.

 

God love their smug little expressions.......

293

This is a little OT but if I'm using a sonic toothbrush do I really need to floss?

 

Only if you wish to retain your teeth

294

 

I don't trust Karl Rove.

Sorry....I just don't.  Not any more.

 

And I hope that the Romney team doesn't trust him either. ....Rove is still firmly in the Bush camp, who probably wouldn't mind seeing us lose this year....so that Jeb could run in 2016.

295 It's almost like arguing since Pataki won NY...

296

#282 That is exactly what my friend said.  He is hard-right conservative, easily the most pro-life person I know,  but he also wants to win elections and he knows the county has moved left over the years.  Fimian was WAY too conservative.  So they got Connolly who voted 100% the Pelosi line. 

 

One reason Fairfax has turned Blue is that the far-right social-cons took over the GOP there in the late 1990s and they haven't won anything since.  They put on two gigantic rallies for Sarah Palin in 2008, and lost twice as many votes from independents and moderates.  I'm sure none of those assholes like Mitt Romney, but a lot of independents and even moderate Democrats will. 

297

300...no prob. Corbett is so dull that it';s easy to forget thathe's the Gov. Walker, on the other hand.......

298 Barry, I was building this economy when you were getting with (male) cheerleaders!

299 If Obama loses, it will confirm his world view. If he wins it will confirm his view that he is more awesome that his world view. Either way he verifies one of his positions, then munches on a dog.

300 This is a little OT but if I'm using a sonic toothbrush do I really need to floss?Posted by: Velvet Ambition at May 24, 2012 04:09 PM (mFxQX)

According to my periodontist....yes.

301 I'm not sure Obama is a good campaigner or not. You're not sure? Barack Hussein Obama, paper-thin resume, friend of convicted terrorists, and recipient of 67 million votes. And you're not sure?

302 Just remember.... good things happen in PA!

303 He's winning in Iowa. There are now more registered Republicans than Democrats. Nevada is 22-23% Mormon. I can guarantee that they will vote in record numbers. 2/3 of the New Hampshire Legislature is republican as are the 2 Congressmen. How is it a lost cause? Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Michigan are not going to be the deciding states. The only way they go Republican is for there to be a large wave where Romney already has the 270 he needs and those are just icing.

304 You know that fable "Tragedy of the Commons?" That propaganda has been used by the left for decades to justify all sorts of government regulations. And from the first time I read it, it's pissed me off. Because there was never a real-world example, just similarities twisted to fit.

The other I read something that proves it true: There is a tragedy of the commons, it's called: Government. Our current form of government and spending encourages individuals and small groups who carve out benefits only for themselves while passing on the costs to everyone else.

305 279 Posted by: jwest at May 24, 2012 04:02 PM (ZDsRL) Wow. Agree with almost all of it, but I can't see Hillary stepping in. Her tenure as Sec. of State is as disastrous in foreign affairs as has been SCOAMF domestically. Then again, the question is if your scenario plays out, will everyone turned off by SCOAMF's destruction of the economy be aware of Hillary's record of destruction of our int'l status?

306 The Republican Party in NJ is incompetent. The only thing that saves it is that the incompetence is completely overshadowed by the graft and corruption of the Democrats. And the people have turned on the unions, especially the NJEA. But is is still a long shot. If NJ goes red, cascade bababyyy

307 >>Yes Damn. Posted by: runninrebel at May 24, 2012 04:11 PM (N/1Dm) Were do i send the bill for that professional advise?

308 300 comments? Must be time for a Wisco update.

309 VA is a wildcard because of the influence that Washington has on NOVA.  But NOVA is basically one big suburb and VA is a traditional GOP state.  I see it falling back in GOP hands.  Mitt should be tailored made as a candidate for subarban NOVA.  That is what the GOP establishment says anyway.  NOVA may depend on Washington from an economic perspective, but they are culturally more conservative and their is a sizable military component their. 

310 >>>10% of VA's economy comes from the Pentagon. Northern VA is blue....but not the rest of the state. Outside of the Beltway it is deep red.

That's not quite true, either.  Richmond is pretty blue, and Hampton Roads is also a deep shade of (minority) blue as well. 

One thing to keep in mind about VA is that it's tough in THIS cycle for reasons that wouldn't necessarily apply to any other Democratic candidate.  Obama's African-American appeal is what brought out such massive numbers in Richmond and Hampton Roads on top of the standard Arlington/Fairfax yuppie appeal.  That will hopefully be less of an element this time around, but still a real problem.

311

 

Romney   You ain't so bad, you ain't so bad, you ain't nothin'. C'mon,  Preezy,  hit me in the face! My mom hits harder than you!

312 Until we start being honest and admit that Barack Obama is really good at one thing, i.e., campaigning, we won't defeat him.

Here's the thing, Sooth, I don't really think he's that good at campaigning.  The stuff in the 2008 campaign was laughable.  It should have earned him nothing but derision and scorn.

I'm not sure why it didn't.  Part of it was the firewall the media built around him, and part of it was the cult of personality, but there's more there that I'm not sure I'll ever understand.

I think part of it, though, goes along with being "unknown."  The only office to which he's ever won re-election was the Illinois State Senate.  And that he won by "winning" the un-opposed Democrat primary in a district that went 89% Democrat in that election (that is: there was never any chance a Republican was going to win).  He won a 3rd term- but ran unopposed in both the primary and the general.

Other than that?  He had to resort to the dirtiest of dirty tricks to win his first US Senate Seat, then he ran for President.

I think part of what helped him in 2008 was that he was so unknown.  People could use him (as other have said) as a Rorschach- he could be whatever they wanted him to be.  But now he has a record, and people can see behind the rhetoric.

On top of that, he's lazy.  Again, he didn't win either his first term to the State Senate, nor his term to the US Senate by great debating skills, or great campaigning, but by dirty tricks.  Similarly, he didn't do all that much when campaigning for president.  Oh, sure, he showed up lots of places (that hasn't stopped), but he had basically two campaign speeches, and a lot of proxies.

I don't think he's nearly as good a campaigner as the MFM would have us believe.

313 Okay my #306 was just mean.

314 The Republican Party in NJ is incompetent. The only thing that saves it is that the incompetence is completely overshadowed by the graft and corruption of the Democrats. And the people have turned on the unions, especially the NJEA. But is is still a long shot. If NJ goes red, cascade bababyyy Posted by: thunderb at May 24, 2012 04:12 PM (Dnbau) They asked me to work for the Board of Elections here in NJ this year, so we will see?

315 >>but I cannot imagine a scenario where the country asks the question: four more years of this? And anything close to 50% saying "Yes! We want more of the same!!"

Have we passed 50% of the population getting all or part of their income--welfare, salary, Social Security, business subsidies--from the government? 

316

I'm seeing a lot of racism in these pro-Romney predictions.

317 And all this time I thought it was Johnny Olaf.

318 325 So?We like mean here.

319 308 300...no prob. Corbett is so dull that it';s easy to forget thathe's the Gov. Walker, on the other hand.......

Walker? The Texas Ranger? Oh yeah right, that other guy 

320 Allen, I just don't understand how you can call a non-stop campaigner lazy.

321 One thing to keep in mind about VA is that it's tough in THIS cycle for reasons that wouldn't necessarily apply to any other Democratic candidate. Obama's African-American appeal is what brought out such massive numbers in Richmond and Hampton Roads on top of the standard Arlington/Fairfax yuppie appeal. That will hopefully be less of an element this time around, but still a real problem. Posted by: Jeff B. at May 24, 2012 04:13 PM (xAJql) ------------------------------------------------------ Are you saying that the coloreds are not going to kick off their bathroom slippers and shuffle off to the polls?

322

; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; line-height: normal;" class="MsoNormal">Democrats are gong to force the first black president to not run, and the man so full of himself that Narcissus says "Damn that dude really loves himself" is going to step down because you can actually convince him that he will lose. Yeah right

Posted by: buzzion at May 24, 2012 04:06 PM (GULKT)

It wonÂ’t be the democrats who convince Obama not to run.  He (and mainly Moochelle) will come to that conclusion all by themselves.  Although heÂ’s a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure, heÂ’s not an unintelligent man.  He will be able to read the internal polling just as well as everyone else. 

He wonÂ’t give a shit about the party, but he will care about his legacy.  If he runs, he becomes the black Jimmy Carter who lost in a spectacular blowout and set the left back 20 years.  He will be the brunt of political jokes for decades to come.  Worst of all, if he loses as bad as the indications are, his removal from the White House will be more like an eviction, and the Mooch doesnÂ’t do no more evictions.

Faced with a certain loss or the ability to take a couple hundred million to pay expenses for a perpetual “campaign” for some office to be named in the future, Mooch will tell the One to take the deal.

323 >>You know that fable "Tragedy of the Commons?" That propaganda has been used by the left for decades to justify all sorts of government regulations.

Que?  The Tragedy of the Commons is a justification of private property rights.

324 Remember the 2010 elections, folks.   And all of those people (plus many more) will definitely be voting.   That's the poll that was taken that I base my opinion on.

325

Barack Hussein Obama, paper-thin resume, friend of convicted terrorists, and recipient of 67 million votes.

I am sure that he had massive help from the MSM. Those of us with common sense saw right through the Roman Columns and teleprompter speeches. A lot of people were willing to be fooled in '08.

 

 Do you see the 2012 version of Zero as a master campaigner? He's been a freakin' disaster so far. The '08 "magic" is long gone.

 

326 'm getting the sense from my in-laws, and old friends of my wife who live in MI that MI has a very good chance (well, better than it has in a while) of going Red this year. There are no jobs in Michigan. It's terrible there. I hate going to visit my in-laws because it depresses me. The Republicans took the legislature and Governors office in 2010, and they've been slowly staunching the bleeding. I hope so. My own sense from having lived there and visiting is that the only chance of Michigan going red is if Detroit has emptied out, which may in fact have happened. BTW, there’s a recall movement in place for Governor Rick Snyder. I see some of my High School classmates on Facebook pushing it. Some “non-partisan” group called Michigan Rising. “Michigan Rising is a non-partisan Political Action Committee that is dedicated to restoring the balance in the legislature in the state of Michigan”. Fortunately, recalls in Michigan are a lot harder than they apparently are elsewhere. The group tried once before and didn’t get enough signatures in the 90-day window.

327
I'm not sure Obama is a good campaigner or not.






Largest Democratic victory in a two party match up since LBJ in '64.

44 years dude.

328 They asked me to work for the Board of Elections here in NJ this year, so we will see? Posted by: Nevergiveup at May 24, 2012 04:13 PM (05RcU) ********* Just making sure the voting machines are zeroed out in the morning will be half the battle.

329 And put down my $5 on "no way Mooch lets SCOAMF decline a second term."

330 And I think the smug white upperclass suburban Obama voter of 2008 has already proved they are not racists, and have realized the JEF doesn't know anything about business or economics. They just won't tell a pollster that.

331 Four years ago, Obama and his opponent, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), both ran on implementing a cap-and-trade system to reduce carbon emissions. Obama still mentions climate change in some speeches. For example, heÂ’ll make a push to extend clean energy tax breaks Thursday. Still, the White House has soft-pedaled the way it talks about it heading into a tough election in which the economy trumps all.

Gone are the urgent statements warning of melting glaciers and rising sea levels. Indeed, the energy and environment page at WhiteHouse.gov now shows a photo of the president walking in front of segments of oil pipeline, and the White House never neglects an opportunity to tout its support for domestic oil and natural gas drilling. In briefings on background, senior administration officials now talk about exporting fracking technology, which has caused natural gas production to boom and prices to fall.

332 Yes,Obama campaigned well in 2008.Now he has a record and his record sucks stale donkey farts.

333 runninrebel, I don't floss; I use brush picks. Does the job, no bloody gums at check up time.

334 Sounds like O'Cluster will only be able to campaign in Detroit on his day job:

http://tinyurl.com/bnkrja8

335 I wonder if he'll also take Cali. Since he lives there now.

336

 

Joe the Plumber....coming up on Cavuto. ...Eric Boling filling in for Cavuto.

Joe Wurzelbacher will be sharing his thoughts about Biden dissing plumbers.

337

; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; line-height: normal;" class="MsoNormal">Wow. Agree with almost all of it, but I can't see Hillary stepping in. Her tenure as Sec. of State is as disastrous in foreign affairs as has been SCOAMF domestically. Then again, the question is if your scenario plays out, will everyone turned off by SCOAMF's destruction of the economy be aware of Hillary's record of destruction of our int'l status?

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at May 24, 2012 04:12 PM (MCDCp)

Hillary has about 60% approval right now.  SheÂ’s actually done a good job bullshitting her way through this Sec. of State thing and the unwashed masses believe sheÂ’s competent.

It would be a tough race if she stepped in.

338
They asked me to work for the Board of Elections here in NJ this year..
Posted by: Nevergiveup





Union rep or linen cleaning?

339 Or Rominy Grits wins a landslide as the SCOAMF collapses into a less-firm shit pile.

340 >>>One reason Fairfax has turned Blue is that the far-right social-cons took over the GOP there in the late 1990s and they haven't won anything since. They put on two gigantic rallies for Sarah Palin in 2008, and lost twice as many votes from independents and moderates.

This is exactly the point I made in #226.  I know it's not a popular point with a lot of online conservative commenters, but here's an ugly truth: social conservatism is a MAJOR, MAJOR VOTE-LOSER everywhere in the nation at this point, except perhaps in the Deep South.  That's not to say that moderates won't vote for a guy who happens to be socially conservative, but rather that leading with it, culture-warrior style, is a suicide play everywhere north of South Carolina.

This has always been the core of my argument for Romney on a purely electoral sense: he doesn't carry that kind of baggage the way so many other Republicans do.  He's not a raving socon, he's the antithesis of Tea Party, he's an educated business professional...he's the first candidate the GOP has put forth in decades whose profile matches that of the swing voters and persuadable moderate Democrats in this country.

341

He (and mainly Moochelle) will come
to that conclusion all by themselves.
Although heÂ’s a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure, heÂ’s not
an unintelligent man. He will be able to
read the internal polling just as well as everyone else.

 

The man that tells everyone he thinks he can do their job better than they could even though its obvious he has no talent.  He is an unintelligent man.  And he probably can't read internal polling because it involves numbers and its obvious that he sucks at everything that requires numbers.  He will never reach the conclusion that he cannot win and so should drop out.  It requires more of a connection to reality than he has ever shown.

342 Eh, i still think '08 was more about people wanting to get the first black president hurdle off our back than anything Obama actually did, and now that we've had our first black prez and that hurdle has been jumped things are going to return to the 50/50 state of '00 and '04.

343

Soothesayer - I'll need one more election to determine whether he is a good campaigner.  If Obama loses, but it is close, then I'll probably conclude he was a good campaigner.  2008 can still be chalked up to a confluence of events in which any Dem was going to beat any Republican.  Not sure that makes one a good campaigner.  Saw too many mistakes from him on the road.  He was definitely a good fundraiser, which is part of campaigning.  But Obama has never had to run a tough campaign.  Bush at least showed that he could beat a popular incumbent govenor in Ann Richards.  Yes it was Texas, but Texas was not nearly as red in 1994 as it is now.  And she was popular.  And that was his first big campaign. 

All that being said, Obama did beat the mighty Clinton machine.  That has to count for something.

But I still think the evidence is out as to whether he is a good campaigner.

344 339
44 years dude + John McCain
Best performance out of 6?

345 Largest Democratic victory in a two party match up since LBJ in '64.

The victory isn't in dispute.  The reasons are.  With the backup (and alleged opposition) he had, an idiot could win.

And in fact an idiot DID, mind you.

346 >>>Are you saying that the coloreds are not going to kick off their bathroom slippers and shuffle off to the polls?

No, I'm saying that voting for a Historical First is always going to get more folks out to the polls, turnout-wise, than voting for the Disappointing Followup.  But that AA voters will still turn out in big numbers for Obama.  Count on it.

347 Yes, Obama now has a record. And it sucks. Bad. But despite that, the Campaigner-in-Chief still enjoys approval ratings of nearly 50%. He must be doing something right, right?

348 Obama campaign operative in WI working to unseat Walker!

349 Allen, I just don't understand how you can call a non-stop campaigner lazy.

Because he's lazy.  Even the most slothful don't mind doing things they enjoy.  A guy who would never "work" a day in his life can spend hours or days perfecting the skills necessary to completely dominate at MW3:Call of Duty, for example.  Someone who is "lazy" in everything else can somehow find time and energy, at any moment, to go play basketball, or golf, or football, or soccer, or whatever.

Lazy isn't about sitting on a couch with a bag full of Cheetos, it's a mental thing.  It's "the easy way."

Believe me, I'm an expert on lazy.

He does all those campaign stops because he enjoys them- they take no particular effort for him, and they're very rewarding.  He gets heaped with adoration and told how good he is, and he gets to hear the sound of his own voice.  But he does none of the work.  You can tell he doesn't even help with his own speeches, because he does have to read virtually every word from a Tele-prompter.  He does no preparation (besides maybe some gargling with salt-water or something).  He's there for the speechifying and the adoration.

350 Re: 350
Hillary for Pres/Moochelle for VP
Now that would be BIG!

351 They asked me to work for the Board of Elections here in NJ this year.. Posted by: Nevergiveup Union rep or linen cleaning? Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at May 24, 2012 04:19 PM (kdS6q) They better not hand me a toilet plunger when I walk in

352 social conservatism is a MAJOR, MAJOR VOTE-LOSER everywhere in the nation at this point, except perhaps in the Deep South. For instance? Name some issues.

353 He must be doing something right, right? Wrong!

354

Here ya go Ace...
In the New Hampshire House of Representatives we went from Dems (216) Repubs (102) with (10) vacancy, to Repubs (29 Dems (174).

In the New Hampshire State Senate we went from Dems (14) Repubs (5), to Repubs (19) Dems (10).

We/Republicans also flipped both congressional seats and took a Senate seat...
And WE WILL Take the Governors office this Nov.
Soooooo.........Barky will have to fight HARD for NH.

355 He's there for the speechifying and the adoration.

In an alternate universe, he'd have made a decent actor:  delivers the lines well, reasonably photogenic, soaks up publicity, dumb as a post.

356

I know right now the scenario of Obama dropping out sounds crazy, but watch the media for signs.

ItÂ’s actually already in the early stages from those who have access to the leftÂ’s internal data.  Corey Booker took his shot the other day.  Ed Rendell and Harold Ford jumped in.  A few of the media types are becoming a little uppity towards the One.  Cracks are forming.

As the rats jump ship, it will become clear who wants to be known as a visionary and who gets left behind in the Great Obama Debacle.

357 @Jeff B, I'm just not sure how you can say that when every state, not just southern states, vote against gay marriage.  Polls come out and show that the pro-life side is gaining and the pro-choice side is losing.  Bush was solidly a social conservative and won two terms.  To say that social conservatism is a loser is just flat out not in line with the facts. 

358 Posted by: Jeff B. at May 24, 2012 04:19 PM (xAJql)

Your truth would make sense if Bush had lost in 2000 or 2004, he didn't. Hell a serious argument can be made that fighting redfining marriage singlehandedly got Bush reelected in 04. How many times did Bush have to defend not backing embryonic stem cell research in debates? He very publicly pushed the FMA.
Do I even need to mention 33-0?

359 I think this election is about destruction.  Baraka's  purpose was to destroy as much of America as possible.  Do you think,  after having done so much in the last four years, that he's going to give a shit if he brings the dems party down with him.  I think not.

360 He must be doing something right, right?

No.  He has a lapdog media who shelter him from any bad news, and a convenient foil in the House Republicans.

For all that, I don't believe he's actually at 47+%  Probably closer to 45%, and even then I'd take the under.

361 @305
Me either. Hate Rove. Won't listen to him or read his stuff anymore. I've met the man and he talks a good game in public but him is a little toad after a few drinks.

362 Lacey! You broke Knightbrigade!

363 WTF? happened? to my post?

364 To say that social conservatism is a loser is just flat out not in line with the facts. Shh. He's rolling.

365 WTF? happened? to my post? Don't cut and paste from word or wordpad.

366 Obama did beat the mighty Clinton machine. Which is the most amazing part of this evil saga. Obama and Axelrod never dreamed of winning the nomination. Obama entered the race to position himself in the party and make a name for himself. Obama was testing the waters and testing himself. He and Axelrod must have shit themselves when he started winning primaries. Obama KO'd Hillary like he was Buster Douglas and she was Mike Tyson. He knocked her the fuck out.

367 ace really need to change the blog mast to " Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin using NOTEPAD!"

368 He and Axelrod must have shit themselves when he started winning primaries. He won caucuses, Hillary won primaries, but mostly, he won the Superdelegates.

369 If Pennsylvania would pull their heads out of their asses none of this would matter. OH + FL + PA = Victory

370 Wrong! Eleanor Clift? Pat Buchancan?!? Bye .... Bye!

371 OT, but you know what amazes me?  That this is the HQ, and we haven't had a post about Bubba and the Porn Stars in Monte Carlo.     

372 380..Thanks...
I typed a whole chart in and it rejected, so I cut and pasted.....
Live and learn.

373 And mostly he won a shitload more votes than Hillary.

374 Gay marriage is the ultimate proof of a preference cascade.  Few will say publicly they are against it, and many probably ultimately do not care one way or the other.  But in a voting booth, where they are asked if they are for it or against it, they vote against.  Time and time again.

375 362 Exactly.

376

He and Axelrod must have shit themselves when he started winning primaries.

 

I didn't think he won that many Primaries.  It was the caucuses that he was carrying.  And the Democrat rules that all their primaries were proportional that really helped keep him up.  Didn't Hillary actually win most of the primaries?

377 Believe me, I'm an expert on lazy.


You mean you don't hand-type "Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure" every time?

378 Obama KO'd Hillary like he was Buster Douglas and she was Mike Tyson. He knocked her the fuck out.

But see... I still don't think he did.  I remember those debates and the coverage, and I remember the way the other news pieces were handled.  What Obama did was to throw the most childish possible attacks (not to mention most naive possible promises) around, and the Media just covered for him.

When Hillary pointed out that she was being attacked for being a woman (don't remember the issue, but I remember the coverage), we were told she was whining.  When they trotted out the Race-Card on Bill, he was laughed at.  When Obama made a stupid promise to meet with Imadinnerjacket without any preconditions, the Media went so far as to say he didn't mean what he said.  When he promised the moon (including no mandate) on Health Care, there was not one skeptical report, not one "are you sure?" question.

Obama didn't do the campaigning- the Media did.

379

; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; line-height: normal;" class="MsoNormal">Dude, there's two flies fornicating on the screen on the window of my office. I wonder what they think of Rove's white board math?

Posted by: Beefy Meatball, who just realized this isn't the ONT at May 24, 2012 04:24 PM (yn6XZ)

Rove will always paint the worst picture for the right.  HeÂ’s in the business of raising money (donÂ’t ever mistake what he does for a living) and right now, the best fundraising tool is projecting a sense that the right is behind but catching up – if only we had enough money.

380 Am I wrong, I thought Clinton ultimately won more democratic voters in the 2008 primaries? 

381

And the Democrat rules that all their primaries were proportional that really helped keep him up.

 

I never, EVER want you to use the term "keep him up" in reference to the Preezy of the United Steezy EVER AGAIN.  Understand?  Because gross.

382 Lol tami

383

Smilin' Bob McDonnell & George Allen's keeping his yammer shut get Virginia for Romney. 

384 >>>Obama KO'd Hillary like he was Buster Douglas and she was Mike Tyson. He knocked her the fuck out.

That victory was the most costly victory to the liberal agenda. Because they turned their own conformity and intolerance machine against their base. We gained strength following the Obama win as more and more moderates woke up to the lie that liberalism was when they were ostracized for supporting a different democrat in the primary.

385 PPP reports blacks following Zero's lead, are all on board with gay marriage now, since his evolution. Shit, let's deck out all the A.M.E. churches in rainbow ribbons!

386

OT, but you know what amazes me? That this is the HQ, and we haven't had a post about Bubba and the Porn Stars in Monte Carlo.

 

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter at May 24, 2012 04:31 PM (4df7R)

 

Word. Y'all cob-loggers are slipping.

387 You mean you don't hand-type "Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure" every time?

Oh, I still type out "Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant" by hand- but I enjoy doing that.

388 He and Axelrod must have shit themselves when he started winning primaries.

The fact that they don't have a coherent reelection strategy 6 months out pretty much proves that.

389 OpenBlogger would have posted about Bubba and the Pornstarlets.

390

Eh....

 

Didn't Karl Rove say that Hillary would be the nominee back in 2008?

391 355- "...AA voters will still turn out in big numbers for Obama. Count on it." Yes. And that is the reason, the ONLY reason, he has the edge in VA. The youth vote will NOT turn out for him this time, not the way they did in 2008. He'll lose the moderates and squishies. The deep red areas will increase their turnout. Many Democrats in the Western part of the state will vote either for a Texas felon or for Romney. Who knows?

392 Obama seemed to accumulate so many superdelegates so soon in the primary season, it made the Hillary camp go into desperation mode. Was it via caucuses? Okay. Whatever it was it seemed to blindside Hillary Clinton. He knocked her on her fat white ass before she knew she was in a fight with this neophyte senator from Illinois.

393 AHAHAHAH!


Marion Barry, healing the racial divide one slur at a time...

"“America has had racial tensions from the time it was founded,” Barry said. “Italians coming here, the Irish came here, the Jews came here, the Polacks came here, the Chinese came here.”"

394 >>>Your truth would make sense if Bush had lost in 2000 or 2004, he didn't. Hell a serious argument can be made that fighting redfining marriage singlehandedly got Bush reelected in 04. How many times did Bush have to defend not backing embryonic stem cell research in debates? He very publicly pushed the FMA.

Yes, but this presumes that we are the same nation, culturally, in 2012 that we were in 2000 and 2004.  We're not.  Generations cycle through.  We're always changing (this is a reality of civilization, not just something unique to the U.S.), and we're shifting in a direction that makes it important to emphasize the GOP's libertarian small-government philosophy (the Meyer side of the old famous Bill Buckley/Frank Meyer 'fusionism' that created National Review), and not Santorum-like daddystate "we need to impose a lost moral order" crap.

I want to be clear that I don't include abortion in my list of "dumb socon crap." I don't think it's a winner to push it in certain states (I seriously don't understand what the problem is with allowing Republicans in the NE to go mushy-mouthed on it instead of forcing them to adhere to the national party line and torpedo their electability there), but it's the sort of moral absolute -- life and death -- that is worth standing on principle for.

You might also notice that, unlike things like gay marriage, the numbers on abortion are not only staying consistent, they're shifting to our side.  Not a coincidence!

Also, do note that my specific point was really in relation to the Northern VA Republican Party (well, the statewide apparatus as well): they got taken over by hardcore socons in the '90s and instantly embarked upon a tragicomic losing streak that turned the place from reliably red to not just blue but actively REVOLTED by social conservatism.  Bunch of fucking morons, led by Jim Gilmore.

395

That this is the HQ, and we haven't had a post about Bubba and the Porn Stars in Monte Carlo.

 

No.  For the love of all that's unholy, no.    I shall have to comfort myself in the warm glow of my versions of the Bible to get those images out of my head. 

396 Marion Barry, healing the racial divide one slur at a time...

He's not racist.  He hates everyone equally.

397 Then the Czechs and Germans came here, brought beer making skills, and all were happy.

398 >>Obama KO'd Hillary like he was Buster Douglas and she was Mike Tyson. He knocked her the fuck out.

The caucus fraud (and intimidation) probably helped more than the campaigning.  She did better in states with ballots.

399 You mean you don't hand-type "Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure" every time?

Oh, I still type out "Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant" by hand- but I enjoy doing that.


Indeed, there is something quite soothing about typing "Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure", like a tantrum from a public school teacher.

400 Marion Barry is such    a gaffetastic imbecile, you could tack him onto the VP ticket in place of Joe Biden and no one would notice. 

401 I'm with AllenG.  Obama was a once in a lifetime candidate that probably cost the media whatever shred of impartiality they had left.  Once the September crisis hit, there was no shot for the inparty to retain control.  The wars and deepening recession had taken toll.  Voters wanted a change.  They wanted a reason to be optimistic.  They wanted to support the guy who said just give me one term, tax cuts for the middle class, no individual mandate, no deficit spending.  That guy never really existed.  Now we know that for sure.  The recession that started in 2008 is still here.  Obama won in an easy election.  Sadly, John Edwards probably could have won.  Obama won campaiging on conservative ideas.  Obama will not win again.

402

Ohioans are sick of Barry. One and done.

403 The caucus fraud (and intimidation)

Oh, don't ever forget the intimidation.  Some of the stories I heard were unbelievable.  I'm not sure I actually believe them, in fact, but if they're even half-true, the one thing Obama was good at was gaming a caucus system.

404 If you remember, the turnout was extraordinary in those Dem primaries, which I always thought was a sign that both Clinton and Obama were cheating their asses off. Now I'm curious of the totals. brb...

405

 

There are just some things you don't eat.

406 Its interesting that the increasing Blue-ness of VA is blamed on social conservatives, rather than the ever increasing government size and thus more government workers, likely centered around VA.

407 No. For the love of all that's unholy, no. I shall have to comfort myself in the warm glow of my versions of the Bible to get those images out of my head.

Posted by: alexthechick at May 24, 2012 04:36 PM (VtjlW)

 

Do any of your bible versions happen to have April O'Neil?

408 Yuck and ick!

409 You're right, SH. Clinton had slightly more votes in the primaries than Obama. Roughly: Obama: 17.6M Clinton: 17.9M Obama won 29 states. Clinton won 21.

410 In case of an electoral tie.....I know the election gets thrown to the House...but is is the current House or the new (2013) House?

The new 2013 House, and it's not a vote by majority of representatives, it's a vote by state- California gets one vote, South Carolina gets one vote, etc.  Right now, the GOP has a massive advantage in the number of states with a GOP House majority.

MN would be troublesome, as we have 2 GOP and 2 Dem reps.

The other interesting thing- the Senate picks VP.  If it were a 269-269 tie, none of the electors switched sides to vote for the other candidate, and the Dems hold the Senate, it's very plausible that we'd end up with a Romney / Biden administration.

Hell, part of me hopes it does come down to a 269-269 tie where the House elects Romney.  The caterwauling by the Dems would make the 2000 election seem amicable.

411

You might also notice that, unlike things like gay marriage, the numbers on abortion are not only staying consistent, they're shifting to our side. Not a coincidence!

I'm still not seeing this great shift towards gay "marriage". It still gets voted down decisively in red, blue and purple states. The only places where it's legal are places that had it imposed judicially or by legislature action (which is perfectly fine by me if they followed the process).

It's kind of like soccer...everyone is saying it will be the wave of the future...and it remains that way indefinitely.

412 The caucus fraud (and intimidation) Oh, don't ever forget the intimidation. Some of the stories I heard were unbelievable. I'm not sure I actually believe them, in fact, but if they're even half-true, the one thing Obama was good at was gaming a caucus system. Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at May 24, 2012 04:40 PM (8y9MW) ******** In Vegas Obama got the SEIU to back him and supposedly in the later process of the caucus they locked her people out of the rooms. The votes where held at some unionized hotels IIRC.

413 Marion Barry is such a gaffetastic imbecile, you could tack him onto the VP ticket in place of Joe Biden and no one would notice.Posted by: MWR

Can you imagine the two of them trying to assemble a bicycle together?

414 Obama's campaign played the primary game perfect and had help from the inside with their super delegates. Otherwise Clinton kicked Obama's ass in straight up voting. She won the top ten electoral States that had primaries. It worked out for the Dems but tour nominating system is screwed up if you win the top ten electoral states and you're not even close to being nominated.

415 I think a lot will depend on who the VP pick will be; Romney camp will look at the trending polling data and pick accordingly.  Wouldn't it be nice to flip California?  I can always dream.

416 Its interesting that the increasing Blue-ness of VA is blamed on social conservatives, rather than the ever increasing government size and thus more government workers, likely centered around VA. Posted by: buzzion at May 24, 2012 04:40 PM (GULKT) ********* Correct.

417 Oh, don't ever forget the intimidation. Some of the stories I heard were unbelievable. I'm not sure I actually believe them, in fact, but if they're even half-true, the one thing Obama was good at was gaming a caucus system.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at May 24, 2012 04:40 PM (8y9MW)


Didn't some Clinton supporters put together a video about the fraud?  I can't remember the name of it.

418 Posted by: Jeff B. at May 24, 2012 04:36 PM (xAJql)


I really think Ace has overplayed this card and I hate doing it myself but the only way I can describe your comment there is wishcasting. The Republican party isn't becoming more "libertarian" (I mean socially liberal wink, wink). 8 years isn't a generation and Obama didn't back "gay marriage" in 08 for no reason. Heck he still wouldn't publicly if his gay cash hadn't dried up and everybody,  even the MSM, was still buying his BS on the issue.

Constantly harping on social issues has never been a big draw.  But actively bucking them never has been either.

419 Didn't some Clinton supporters put together a video about the fraud? I can't remember the name of it.

 

Posted by: Tami at May 24, 2012 04:46 PM (X6akg)

 

The Omen?

420 427..thanks, Hollowpoint.

421 313 Just remember.... good things happen in PA!

Posted by: R. Budd Dwyer at May 24, 2012 04:11 PM (jucos)

That's just wrong...

422 Wasn't there also something weird about the Dem primary in Texas? Hillary won the first step but not the second?

423 I thought ace's goal was a post every 30 minutes. Is that earth minutes?

424 Wasn't there also something weird about the Dem primary in Texas?

Yes.  For some reason the Dems in our state had a split Primary/Caucus system.  She won the votes (the Primary) but then lost the Caucuses.

425 Here's the video, "We will not be silenced"



http://tinyurl.com/25jhn3t

426 While the electorate is no the same as it was in 2000 or 2004, it hasn't changed that much.  Gay marriage may be inevitable, but it doesn't have to be.  There are two dynamics pulling the issue in two different directions.  On one hand, I think the vast majority know that it is a pretty big change to fundamentally change "marriage."  On the other hand, no one wants to be thought of as a bigot.  This is why gay marriage opponents do not really stress the equality portion as much as they want to make it look like you are bigot for not supporting it.  Why can't gay marriage go the way of gun control.  Ultimately, the conservatives won a decisive victory on gun control.  But I bet if you go back to the late 80's the conventional wisdom said national gun control was inevitable.  Its hard to conceive of gun control coming back as a winning issue.  Conversatives can win on some issues.  Why not on gay marriage? 

427 439 Wasn't there also something weird about the Dem primary in Texas?

Hillary won the first step but not the second?

Posted by: tasker at May 24, 2012 04:48 PM (r2PLg)

 

Not the primary, but just the rules of Texas altogether.  Texas has a Primary and Caucus on the same day and delegates get awarded based on both.  Clinton won the primary and Obama won the caucus.  I don't know how the delegates get divided up from them though.

428 Yes. For some reason the Dems in our state had a split Primary/Caucus system. She won the votes (the Primary) but then lost the Caucuses. Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at May 24, 2012 04:49 PM (8y9MW) ********** Crazy.

429

>>0One thing is for sure. The October surprises are going to be epic.

Economic collapse, war, radical policy shifts, nothing is off the table. <<

 

Go on. I like the way your mind works.

430 Okay, now I see how it all unfolded. In order: NH: Clinton 39% to Obama's 36%, whoa, where did this guy come from? Michigan: this was the whole kerfluffle about Obama taking his name off the ballot SC: Obama crushes Hillary 2-to-1! FL: Clinton makes a comeback. But it wasn't enough to stop Obama's momentum. Obama went on to win 13/23 states on February 5th.

431 I wonder if Obama losing the case for Yucca will help those idiots give up on being stupid democrats. They can't deliver as promised and lied like hell. Reid is such a perverted scumbag.

432

 

OT:  Lights Out Detroit (drudge)

 

Detroit, whose 139 square miles contain 60 percent fewer residents than in 1950, will try to nudge them into a smaller living space by eliminating almost half its streetlights.

As it is, 40 percent of the 88,000 streetlights are broken and the city, whose finances are to be overseen by an appointed board, canÂ’t afford to fix them. Mayor Dave BingÂ’s plan would create an authority to borrow $160 million to upgrade and reduce the number of streetlights to 46,000.

 

 

Who wants to lend Detroit $160 million?

433
My guess is how well Romney does in the debates. It will be his record against the scoamf and sitting there like a punching bag is not an option.
He has to finesse the message that Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at these debates.

434 >>>Wouldn't it be nice to flip California? I can always dream.

California?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCbfMkh940Q

435 Not the primary, but just the rules of Texas altogether. Texas has a Primary and Caucus on the same day and delegates get awarded based on both. Clinton won the primary and Obama won the caucus. I don't know how the delegates get divided up from them though. Posted by: buzzion at May 24, 2012 04:50 PM (GULKT) ****** I bet you it went a little bit like how it went down in Vegas.... I remember seeing footage of her people trying to get in the doors and the union guys shutting them out. At least I seem to remember that. *ugh*

436 Completely OT but Always Sunny in Philadelphia is coming on and the title is "Charlie Goes America All Over Everybody's Ass". They are arguing about Constitutional rights. I bet they will make more sense than Obama.

437
@227



You need a quorum of 2/3 of the House to hold the vote.  Blue state delegations play hooky, Presidency is held in limbo, Obama continues to rule by decree.

438
Who wants to lend Detroit $160 million?

Posted by: Count de Monet at May 24, 2012 04:53 PM (4q5tP)

 

 

What they need is High Speed Salmon Rail.

439 Wouldn't it be nice to flip California? I can always dream. ***** Well, perhaps if you can get enough people to stand on one side.

440 Presidency is held in limbo, Obama continues to rule by decree. Hello Acting President Boehner.

441

Wouldn't it be nice to flip California?

 

 

It could happen!

442 Outside of the Beltway it is deep red. Posted by: Sean Bannion The Norfolk area is more dependent on Pentagon spending then NoVa. Alexandria, Arlington, and Fairfax are going to vote heavy and blue -- but they always do. It's the heavy vote for Obama downstate that swung Virginia blue -- that will not happen this time. JeffB -- you've almost convinced me not to vote for Romney. Where did the idea that he is the opposite of the Tea Party come from? Are you saying the Tea Party was a socon movement.

443 I'm worried it will be close, but expect a big win. We have a huge edge in intensity. The Tea Party hasn't forgotten about Obamacare and the deficit. On Obama's side, it's only the unions that really care. And it's hard for them to convince everyone else to keep making sacrifices for them. That's not working in Wisconsin and it won't work in the swing states in November.

444 Is the blog wonky for everyone, or am I being singled out?

445 Who wants to lend Detroit $160 million? **** What? We're good for it.

446 462 Is the blog wonky for everyone, or am I being singled out?

Posted by: toby928© Person of Pallor at May 24, 2012 04:57 PM (NG097)

 

You mean wonkier than usual?

447 I got a script hanging me up.

448 Save us OpenBlogger you're our only hope.

449 >>>Presidency is held in limbo, Obama continues to rule by decree.

Can't be done. No such thing as Presidential limbo. If he isn't elected for a second term he can't serve past 4 years. Which means if the position of the President becomes vacant, the VP becomes President, if the VP is vacant, then the Speaker of the House becomes President.

450 Average Joe sucks cock by choice.

451 If the vote ends up 269-269, and I don't see how Romney manages to win Michigan and Ohio but lose Pennsylvania but anyway, I predict you will see both the House and Senate vote with whoever won the popular vote in their state regardless of their party affiliation.

452 I got a script hanging me up. **** I have to disable javascript or I can't reload the site. It is a PITA these days.

453 Facedrool had a good day, today. Up a buck to 33. ...despite "Greek Woes" and "EU Worries"

454 >>If he isn't elected for a second term he can't serve past 4 years.

He's shown such regard so far for the Constitution and the method of governance it establishes, I totally see him abiding by that.  O_O

455 It is a PITA these days.

Mmmm... pita bread.  With honey.

Now I'm hungry.

456

 

Script hang me up!

457 AAA-BOOM goes the Troll Hammer!~!!

458 282 But instead the Tea Party types insisted on nominating Keith Fimian, who was more than a little sketchy in his private life and too conservative for the district in any event...and we blew it.   Posted by: Jeff B. at May 24, 2012 04:04 PM (xAJql)   Fine, you don't like us SoCons. But why the hell are you slandering Fimian? How was he sketchy? Those of us down in PWC did our part to elect him, blame your fellow Fairfax "moderate" Republicans for Connelly getting a second term. Had the Fairfax R's actually supported Fimian instead of acting openly embarrased by him, he would have won.   Yes, I'll accept that a Fimian is, in general, "too conservative" for this district (though i haven't studied the new boundaries to see if that's changed), but Herrity lost because he ran a lousy campaign.   Seriously, though, please elaborate on Fimian's sketchiness.

459 PPP reports blacks following Zero's lead, are all on board with gay marriage now, since his evolution. So when while I see a black man marrying a white man in a mainline AME church?

460 469 If the vote ends up 269-269, and I don't see how Romney manages to win Michigan and Ohio but lose Pennsylvania but anyway, I predict you will see both the House and Senate vote with whoever won the popular vote in their state regardless of their party affiliation. Posted by: Rocks at May 24, 2012 04:59 PM (Q1lie) Only house votes in that case.

461 I thought ace's goal was a post every 30 minutes. Is that earth minutes?


Brace yourself for a movie review.

462 He's shown such regard so far for the Constitution and the method of governance it establishes, I totally see him abiding by that

If he tries to do anything else, he gets removed.  It's that simple: he's not the President anymore, so nothing he says or does carries any weight. (in that scenario).

463 >>>He's shown such regard so far for the Constitution and the method of governance it establishes, I totally see him abiding by that.

Oh my dream is he tries that kind of a stunt, a power grab, it won't work and it will set liberalism back by decades as they demonstrate that they all really are mini Hugos and Castros.

464 Fresh thread

465
Only house votes in that case.

Posted by: Underground Vulgarian at May 24, 2012 05:03 PM (oipCQ)

Senate votes for VP?

466 Carl Rove is a self ingratiating Rino Cocksucker of the highest order. Because of Assholes like him we will end up having to nurse this Romney piece of shit across the finish line. One of my bucket list goals is to punch him in his fat fucking face. Other than that, how ya'll doin?

467 Brace yourself for a movie review.

Speaking of movie reviews: I just heard about a movie "For Greater Glory" today.  Have any of the other Morons heard about this?  Know anything about it?

468 JeffB. Why do you see the TEA Party as a SOCON movement?

469 Jean,

Don't listen to that crap. Romney needs every vote esp here in Virginia. I'm utterly convinced that those that are running down Romney at this date actually want Obama for another 4 years. I can't see any other reason. I can just see Obama appointing some long-lived supreme court justice that will haunt us even as well huddle around our LED fires trying to stay warm on our diet of jicama and arugala we hauled home on our green bike. I'll refuse to sing the "dear leader" song and will be shot early on.

470 >>If he tries to do anything else, he gets removed.

By whom?  How?

I'm enjoying the mental picture of a bunch of Marines handcuffing him and the missus and dragging them kicking and screaming into the helicopter, but I don't think that's how it would really play out.

471
@467

The position of President isn't vacant, it's in dispute. Think Coleman/Frankin -- writ large.

Not sure if the succession process would kick in pending a decision. Something like the 2000 election kerfuffel, if that went beyond Clinton's last day of his term.

Some smartypants must of gamed that scenario back in 2000.

472

 

The Decorah Eagles Nest is about to get hit by a pretty bad storm.....

Hail....high winds....it's almost on top of them. ....Poor things. The three babies are bigger now, and have their feathers but are still a ways from being able to fly.

They could be blown out of the nest, quite easily at this stage.

 

Linky in my sig, if you want to watch the live nest cam.

473 Hillary and Obama were essentially tied in the 2008 primary, but the Super!delegates(Dem. Senators, Representatives, and other Party Bigshots) favored Obama.

While the Clintons were in the White House they gathered all power and the attendant profits to themselves. Then during the Bush years others in the Dem. Party rose to power within their party, and those bigshots(Pelosi, Reid, etc.) didn't like the idea of surrendering those powers and the attendant profits back to the Clintons again.

So the Super!delegates backed Obama, whom they saw as someone they could use to rubberstamp their agenda.

474 I'm enjoying the mental picture of a bunch of Marines handcuffing him and the missus and dragging them kicking and screaming into the helicopter, but I don't think that's how it would really play out. Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at May 24, 2012 05:05 PM (/kI1Q) In my version it's more a Ceausescu thing.

475 The left has been trying to sell the TeaParty as a socon movement all along. They knew that if the independents ever realized what the teaparty stood for, it was all over. They had to make it look like it was Jerry Falwell and Anita Bryant wagging their fingers about gay marriage, blacks, jews, and blacks to get any traction in the tea party is racist meme.

A lot of the time people loosely affiliated with the right will absorb the left meme on the issues because they expose themselves to so much lefty bullshit, they really have no way to withstand it.

476 Yet the vigorous public debate over possibly dangerous human-caused global warming is bedevilled by two things.

First, an inadequacy of the historical temperature measurements that are used to reconstruct the average global temperature statistic.

And, second, fuelled by lobbyists and media interests, an unfortunate tribal emotionalism that has arisen between groups of persons who are depicted as either climate “alarmists” or climate “deniers.”

In reality, the great majority of working scientists fit into neither category. All competent scientists accept, first, that global climate has always changed, and always will; second, that human activities (not just carbon dioxide emissions) definitely affect local climate, and have the potential, summed, to measurably affect global climate; and, third, that carbon dioxide is a mild greenhouse gas.

The true scientific debate, then, is about none of these issues, but rather about the sign and magnitude of any global human effect and its likely significance when considered in the context of natural climate change.

477 Sooth, the big one was Iowa. Obama came out of nowhere in the last month to clean up in Iowa and grab the momentum heading into NH. Hillary crying at some townhall was the only thing that swung NH to her.

And then Bill ran his mouth about how SC electing Obama was not big deal since it had elected Jesse Jackson twice. Race cards started flying like face cards in an 8 deck blackjack setup.

478 haha, I forgot about Hillary crying.

479 Ewwww. I read upthread and Jeff B makes me not want to vote for Romney either. What a gross description.

That whole social conservative thing? Big loser. Butt fucking is so much more appealing. Ouch.

480 Romney really is unique - a real capitalist and successful businessman up for the run. Against the most anti-capitalist and anti-business PigBearMan. As far as voters - this may very much look like the previous Scott Brown 2010 win. It just may work.

481 That whole social conservative thing? Big loser. Butt fucking is so much more appealing. Ouch. Posted by: dagny at May 24, 2012 05:12 PM (Z5iSP) That sort of depends if you are the er or the ee, doesn't it?

482 Obama is so insulated from reality, nobody is going to tell him that he is losing.  At least Jimmy Carter had Pat Cadell to tell me on Sunday night before the election.

Barky has no one.  Valerie Jarrett won't let the truth through the door.

483

494 The left has been trying to sell the TeaParty as a socon movement all along. They knew that if the independents ever realized what the teaparty stood for, it was all over. They had to make it look like it was Jerry Falwell and Anita Bryant wagging their fingers about gay marriage, blacks, jews, and blacks to get any traction in the tea party is racist meme.

A lot of the time people loosely affiliated with the right will absorb the left meme on the issues because they expose themselves to so much lefty bullshit, they really have no way to withstand it.

Posted by: dagny at May 24, 2012 05:08 PM (Z5iSP)

 

Yeah its the left that wants the Tea Party to be social conservatives only.  And forgetting that it came about as a fiscal conservatism movement.  The best example of someone "on the right" taking the its social cons is Charles Johnson. 

 

It was an indication of him going off the deep end before coming out that he had gone off the deep end.  He as someone having a major hate for social cons should have loved the tea party movement.  But well Glenn Beck supported the Tea Party, so chuckles definitely couldn't.  Its that derangement about one person making them paint the entire group.

 

And well you do know that Sarah Palin does support and gets positive views from the Tea Party...

484 492 "While the Clintons were in the White House they gathered all power and the attendant profits to themselves"

And now Chairman Nan and Harry Reid are finding that history is repeating itself. That's what they get for changing the rules and pushing through a narcissist.

485

That sort of depends if you are the er or the ee, doesn't it?

Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at May 24, 2012 05:14 PM (Y9uVD)

 

I don't care how long we've been married.  I'm not strapping one of those things on to do that to you!

486 HAHAHAHAHA Damn I miss you freaking people. My novel is almost done.

487 The 2004 version of Barack Obama, who captured the nation with a dazzling speech about unity and went on to win the presidency on a message of hope, died on Monday. He was 8 years old.

The cause of death appeared to be a bitter realization that he needed to win reelection in an increasingly partisan political environment, a cancer that he had been battling for months if not years.

Obama's illness got the best of him late Monday, as he announced that his campaign for four more years in the White House would be based not on optimism, but rather the shady corporate record of his opponent, Mitt Romney, who ran a private-equity firm that few Americans knew about before this year.

Obama's announcement was a stark contrast to the speech that catapulted him into his party's sights eight years ago, when he electrified Democrats at their quadrennial convention.

488 When Team Willard is done with the jug-eared fuck, the ever-hungry Michelle will be chasing her old man with a tub of ranch dressing in an effort to harvest the bloody cauliflower bouquets on the sides of his bruised melon.

489 /shamelessly stolen Ron White joke.

490 What if Ron Paul ends up with the nomination?

491 The Obama re-election bid largely depends on what the exact wording of his contract with the Devil was: did it say "I get to be President of the United States" or did it say "I get to be a two term President of the United States"

Only words I know, but words matter when signatures are in blood.

492 509 What if Ron Paul ends up with the nomination?

Posted by: readyornot at May 24, 2012 05:23 PM (ErUlJ)

 

Then you  need to  quit taking so much LSD.

493

@511

Yes, I would agree...have you seen some of the caucus results?  They make me think I've been using....

494 I voted for Ron Paul in the NC Primary. My little "fuck you" vote.

495 It's more or less customary for me to cheat mortals in this way. By observing only the letter of the agreement. For example, I'll give someone eternal youth, then have them sentenced to life imprisonment. That sort of thing. It's pretty standard.

496 The strap on is definitely out. So the ouch stands.

497 Didn't some Clinton supporters put together a video about the fraud? I can't remember the name of it.

Posted by: Tami at May 24, 2012 04:46 PM (X6akg)

 

***

 

"We will not be silenced", by Gigi Gaston. 

498

PA+MI means you don't need OH VA NH CO NV WI or IA

 

Just a thought.

499 What if Obama does not run?  I lean in that direction.

500
What if Ron Paul ends up with the nomination?
Posted by: readyornot




It would explain why we all have Evil Spock beards...

501 I predict "Cluster's Last Stand" and we're the Injuns.

502 I'm telling you all.  Obama will not be the nominee.  All the numbers say so.

503 Latest way to depict Obama as bi-partisan

The SPLC declares that Malik Zulu Shabazz of the NBPP (New Black Panther Party) is now part of the "Radical Right."

You know Barack Obama did hang out with these "Right Wing" radicals.

504 Iowa will have people voting to kick out one of the "justices" who imposed SSM on them, and a Presidential election where one candidate favors having the US Supreme Court force SSM on everybody.

Romney will take Iowa.

505 Hey Captain Hate are you in CLE or CIN? Just curious

Posted by:laceyunderalls at May 24, 2012 03:20 PM (nuPwU)

CLE; sorry I was out this afternoon, hopefully you see it now.

506 Ohio isn't trending anything. Remember 2 years ago when the Dems were massacred there in the midterms? Ohio trends whichever way the national momentum swings. We saw it in 04 when it swung to W in September when Kerry began to fade. We saw in in 08 when it moved towards Obama when the financial crisis hit that October. If Romney runs a solid national campaign, he can win all these true battleground states without having to concentrate on any limited geographical strategy.

507 Maybe, this was answered above, but why the insistence that NH is a blue State? Maybe in 08, but it was solidly Red in the midterms. I'd be shocked if it went for idiot from Kenya.

508 Wen we got the bowwot box you can be sure that it will be stuffed.

509 Contrary to conventional wisdom, 2012 will not be about independents. Like 2008, 2012 is all about race. White-guilters and blacks (and a shitty GOP choice) put Obama in office. In 2012, white-guilters will have no incentive to do it again, and blacks will not be turning out like they did in 08.

The checkbox of electing a clean articulate black man as president has now been checked off. It's rather poetic that the president who uses a checkbox governing style will be ushered out the same way.

510 both rove and mittens are worthless..NOMITTNOBAMA 2012

511 There's an interactive electoral map at www.270towin.com that let's you play around with various scenarios.

One thing is clear, if Romney doesn't carry Florida, he has to pretty much run the rest of the table.  But if he doesn't carry Florida, that's not going to happen.

Give Romney Florida and it becomes a more even race.

512 I doubt Obama will not win Nevada. I escaped California five years ago. I moved to Nevada, which at the time, had a GOP controlled state Senate and a GOP governor. It had a good balance of conservative and libertarian (which is excellent for someone like me who holds Edmund Burke and Fredric Bastiat both in high regard). Sadly, Ron Paul extremists have taken over the Clark County party (Clark County is home to Las Vegas and >70% of the states population). They have also taken over the state party. They won 22 delegates to the RNC leaving Romney supporters only 3. While they are pledged to *Romney* on the first ballot, they are not limited to the Veep choice or platform vote. This happened despite Ron Paul coming in 3rd with over 80% of the GOP caucus goers rejecting him in favor of another candidate. (Full disclosure, I voted for Newt). This past month they passed a resolution to "uncover" and "expose" UN conspiracies. They also passed a resolution condemning the RNC and demanded Reince Priebus' head on a platter because he's working with the Romney campaign to defeat Obama. Lastly, the Clark County chairman and vice-chairman (neither one of them squishes) resigned to join the "shadow" party set-up by Priebus & Romney. I will not be able to attend the last pre-RNC convention meeting of the Clark County GOP due to business, and won't be able to fight against the Ron Paul people's "General Chaiman" for the new "Grand Soviet." The Ron Paul controlled party has made it clear that they don't care about the re-election of Sen. Heller against ultra-liberal (and Auton-American) Shelly Berkeley, and they have openly declared their hostility towards incumpand Rep. Joe Heck. They care more about the U.N. then the Democrat dominated county they are supposedly fighting against (7 of 7 county commissioners are leftist Dems -- which makes me pine away for the more moderate L.A, County -- [explitive deleted] I can't belive I'm calling them moderates...). Unless Obama completely implodes due to the total devastation of the economy caused by outside forces, Nevada will be the only state to replace a GOP Senator with a Democrat, and go from 2-1 GOP-Dem in the house to 1-3 GOP-Dem in the house. They will also forgo the chance to retake the state Senate, and potentially even the state Assembly (in '10 the GOP got more votes for assemblymen then the Dems, but came out 16-26 due to old apportionment with one Dem district having more voters then 7 GOP districts combined). This will not end well...

513 Yep, it's as simple as 3-2-... Damn.

514 >>Virginia is the toughest, and Obama might actually win it again.<< Hate like hell to say it, but Team Romney better reckon on losing my beloved Commonwealth. Obama is going to win here again, perhaps by even larger numbers. His Mormonism won't turn out the southern Baptist voters, and he has no military pedigree to win the Tidewater vote.