1 Where is everyone?

2 Each vote for Obama is a vote for tyranny!

3 where are the elbows? ...  I hope this means DiT is fixin' Big Tex...

4 I'm concerned that I haven't seen any cheerleaders today.

With or without pointy elbows.

5 Suck it Gerg.

6 Now that the worm has turned, I can't get enough of this poll shit. Mitt will save the children, but not the liberal children He's coming, he's coming, he's coming.

7 Who CARES what these zany polls say anymore??? Obama's campaign is in ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES...Everybody knows that.

I'm supposed to be 'alarmed' when some utterly phony poll 'shows' Obama is up +2..........when the pollster is running a Demo +9% scenario???

I don't think do!!!

8 Didn't we already do this?

9 Where's Dave?

10

1  arguing weed on the other post

anyone seen a reliable polling for hawaii?  i think lingle is going to pull this one off

11 Wave election coming.

12 This post is invalid: no cheerleader.

13 so, my totally meaningless anecdote is from the Philly suburbs. I know for sure one, and not for sure but for strong possibility several more, Obama-voting Catholics are going to vote for Romney.

14 Ex - BF  Barry   got  "the  slims".  Keep  that  on  the  down  low.

15 I'd like to note that, when everyone was eeyoring in the debate threads, I suggested that Mitt would gain 2 pts in the swing states by Friday. Mission Accomplished.

16 Five years ago... Jenkem (or jekem) is the common name given to an inhalant made by fermenting raw sewage (i.e., fecal matter and urine), reportedly used as a cheap means of producing a dissociative or hallucinogenic high (particularly by children in third world countries)

17 Does this then mean that PPP is over sampling early voters by 10%?

18 Of course, I also went 4-10 in the pickem last week so it all evens out.

19 Will he get a new hemp rope?

20 THE GAFFES, MOTHERFUCKERS!!!

21

; font-family: Symbol; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">       ; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">MEDIA WHORES AND POLLSTERS BE DAMNED O ; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">HIO PATRIOTS RALLY FOR ROMNEY & RYAN

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">"ROMNEY & RYAN FOR THE REPUBLIC”

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Our nation senses TRIUMPH,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN"> ; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">We once feared might never come,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">To dispel the clouds of fraud and fear,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Spread like sewage by false MEDIAÂ’s son.

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">The Pretender was truly their bastard child,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Conceived by the lies theyÂ’d spun.

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN"> 

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Those with eyes to see and ears to hear,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Pierced the veil false MEDIA made.

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">As it hid the past and distorted the present,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Of its child who worshipped the shade,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Of the enemies of honor and truth,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">And the evil plans they had laid.

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN"> 

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Rejoice our souls! Sing out our hearts!

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Our champions have appeared!

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Their souls seek neither fame nor the praise of men, 

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">And their faith does not bow to fear—

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">But we now deeply bow in thanks,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">That our pleas kind Heaven would hear.

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN"> 

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Blessed with a wealth he made himself,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Romney can neither be bought nor bribed.

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">His running mate is a GENIUS,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">And true ladies stand at their side,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Tempered by sorrows and service,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">They will fight evilÂ’s vicious tide.

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN"> 

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">With our Champions and Ladies we call to you,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Our friends and brothers in need.

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Be not dismayed at the scope of our task,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">Heed not the temptation of greed.

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">FOR WE SHALL SOON SEE a new Liberty Tree,

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">And WE'LL REMAIN THE LAND OF THE FREE.

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN"> STAY STRONG OHIO--JOIN THE WINNERS

; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">  ; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;" lang="EN">ROMNEY & RYAN WIN BIG IN...THREE WEEKS

 

22 "Wave election coming."

Do NOT count on ANYTHING. Take NOTHING for granted. FEAR complacency.

I live in a deep blue state and I'm thoroughly acquainted with how liberals steal elections. They've been doing it for a long time, they're really good at it, and they're desperate this time.

This state is lost to R-R no matter what, so the week before Election Day, I am going to head out to the most plausibly competitive swing state I can find (that has early voting -- not all of them do).

I may then do an overnight relocation to one of the swing states that does not have early voting, to work there on Election Day.

GOTV. GOTV. GOTV;

23 Just talked to my brother in VA. Romney signs outnumber Obama signs! Woohoo!

24 Anecdotal to be sure, but a distant relative who is a member of a fundamentalist evangelical church in Southern VA said that Romney is formally on the church's prayer list.

25 It's hopeless!   Romney is clearly going to lose, wingnuts!

26 Jarrett probably has Obama on Thorazine right now...

27

No editing feature? Auto formatting by website? Sorry.

28 Barry gets the best weed.

29 Or getting "Shit faced". Posted by: Yikes! at November 05, 2007

30 I wish Romney would legalize pot so I could just smoke it in peace.

31 It's   going to be a long two weeks.  Probably the longest of my life. 

32 The good new is -- in a couple of weeks, the chicken is going to get a well deserved rest.

33 BIG BIRD!!11!

34 I wish Romney would legalize pot so I could just smoke it in peace. Even if, I'd bet my customers wouldn't wave the deadly Random Drug Test requirement.

35 I can't wait for the spiking of the ball on Monday by Obama for killing Osama. How many times will he bring it up???

36 Doom...  I thought that was Monty's thing?  Damn I miss the Morning Doom.

37

whoa

the local news is showing lingle down 47-44 in polling

in a heavy dem state

38 I've been subject to the RDT for 20+years, and have never been called, but sure as I smoke, I'd get the random black ball. FML.

39 So what scummy story will Alred try to throw this election with?

40 Pick one

http://tinyurl.com/8tayvy5

41 HA HA HA HA HA HEE HEE HEEEEEEE!

42 btw- Nate Silver now, in a longwinded way, saying Obama should let go of Florida.

43 Lingle was the governor of the state twice, so you think she would win...

44 Most businesses wouldn't waive drug testing...having stoners on the payroll is too much of a legal liability in today's litigious world.

45

36  I can't wait for the spiking of the ball on Monday

no, that'll be da bears while stomping the shit out of the lions on mnf

46 I declare this a football thread.

47

CAC...checked out page and you are right 11.1 percent early voting in OH...nowhere near 21 percent.   I posted just a bit ago about Professor from the University of  Dayton...Larry Schweikart, who has analyzed the early absentee voting, and has seen the GOP gain and a shift away from the Dems.  He has seen the percent adv drop to 7 percent for the Dems down from 15 percent in 2008 and big enthusiasm gap toward the GOP in the larger counties in OH.

 

Here is an example of one county in OH that Professor Schweikart analyzed for early absentee voting:

 

"Schweikart found some of the most significant swings came in the stateÂ’s large, heavily Democratic urban counties. Summit County, where Akron is located, led urban counties in pro-Republican swings with a 24-point shift."

 

He has found a 30-23 adv for Dems in Absentee....down from 15 points in 2008.  He finalized that there is already a big shift in play from 2008 and that is toward the GOP.

 

The only thing that is "phony" are the polls that are using anything past Plus 3 Dem at best.  Once you get to Plus 5-10 for Dems...the poll is useless and garbage!

 

Ryan is back in Belmont Oh after hitting Pittsburg this morning!! Yes PA!!

 

I was at Mitt/Paul concert last night in Daytona Beach....with John Rich...it was AWESOME and the traffic was a nightmare but well worth it....it was PACKED!!  There were people everywhere and the media was out in force covering!  Both Mitt and Paul rocked...Mitt is really sharpening his skills at taking in Obama....he sounds better and better and it was wonderful!

48 anyone heard anything from Zippy the Greghead?

49 >So what scummy story will Alred try to throw this election with?

Posted by: pat at October 20, 2012 03:06 PM (vY2MW)

well, her track record indicates:

extramarital affair

sexual harrassment

hired an illegal alien

50 I was looking back over the numbers in 2004. Bush was ahead at this point in RCP combined by 1.5  today TFG is ahead by .1
The fact that a sitting president is struggling with a number like that less than three weeks to election day should be enough to strike fear into the hearts of any libtard.

51 fucking non-formatting blog! dadBURNit

52 CAC, Nate Silver should just let go, period. What is Obama's reelection chances now again?

53 Is anyone else creeped out by the cars.com commercials where Kuanto pops out of peoples heads and sings?

54 48 I declare this a football thread.


I don't even want to think about football today.

55 "An elbow, my Kingdom for an elbow." That's what Billy wrote in his first draft.

56

45  yep and she is still really really liked

the biggest thing against her is the school furlows but she by law has to have a balanced budget and the most waste here are our pathetic schools and the uberpowerful teacher's union

people remember the real reason for it

i think she's got this in the bag

57 28 No editing feature? Auto formatting by website? Sorry. You must be new here. Formatting is done with a stone chisel.

58 expect to hear "the best levels since 2008" a lot for the next 2 weeks

59 Ohio Ohio Ohio. We need you, lovers!

60 >Is anyone else creeped out by the cars.com commercials where Kuanto pops out of peoples heads and sings?

yeah I hate that thing.......... MUTE

61 What is InTrade's accuracy rate? Just trying to figure out why so many seem to think they're worth paying attention to.

62 I was at Mitt/Paul concert last night in Daytona Beach....with John Rich...it was AWESOME and the traffic was a nightmare but well worth it....it was PACKED!! There were people everywhere and the media was out in force covering! Both Mitt and Paul rocked...Mitt is really sharpening his skills at taking in Obama....he sounds better and better and it was wonderful!


Mitt and Paul are performing songs now?

I hope they play Stairway to Heaven...

63 What is InTrade's accuracy rate? 100% at the close.

64 Clearly, the binders attack is gaining traction. #GaffeWaaaaaaaatch

65 Obama can pimp the OBL thing only so much...

Bush v1.0 righteously kicked Saddam out of Kuwait and that wasn't enough to save him in the election.  

People understand that blind squirrels find the occasional nut.

66 Put another way, I know a solid conservative guy from Minnesota who described what it was like to get up in the morning, go into the bathroom, look in the mirror to shave, and say, "Al Franken is my new Senator. For fuck's sake. Al fucking Franken. I can't believe this."

But that was the new reality after a huge dose of Third World immigrant voting, felons voting, liberal lawyers scheming, boxes of ballots "found" in car trunks, and MN conservatives succumbing to apathy.

He says if he'd known Al Franken in the Senate was a real possibility, not just a hypothetical to laugh at, it would have galvanized him and he would have been working far harder ahead of time to shut that shit down. It seemed so farcical, until it actually happened in real life, that he did nothing other than just cast his one vote. He didn't donate or volunteer.

Learn from his lesson. A re-elected Barky is still a very real possibility. Get on your ground game now. It's not just your one vote. Donate, volunteer, drive, help crew phone banks, go to swing states if you're not in one. Shut that shit down.

67 Posted by: bluerose75 at October 20, 2012 03:08 PM (HDcKc) PittsburgH

68 The first 4 years, Obama and the corruptocrats dug the grave and pushed us in. If they get 4 more, they will call for the cement truck.

69 >Mitt and Paul are performing songs now?

I hope they play Stairway to Heaven...

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at October 20, 2012 03:10 PM (BuSM

their first album was better.

70 No one puts Larry O'Donnell in a binder.

71 @65 Sorry, I meant at this point in an election cycle.

72 Remember the individual mandate going down? WE predicted that!!

73 44 btw- Nate Silver now, in a longwinded way, saying Obama should let go of Florida. Posted by: CAC at October 20, 2012 03:07 PM (eFU14) ____________ Oct. 19: After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede Florida? Nov 7: After Romney Wins, Should Obama Concede Election?

74 Willard Mitt Romney, mmmmm............mmmmm...........mmmmm.

75 Just got wind that Obama folks are asking for supporters to go to Ohio to drive people to vote for early voting. An acquaintance is all excited about flying out on Friday

76 Run completed.

13.1 miles (half marathon) in 2:53:42.  So an average of 13.25 min/mile.

I'm pretty tired *eases back into my easy chair*

77 Baby's got CAC!

78 Sorry, I meant at this point in an election cycle. I know, I was making a joke. InTrade is a sentiment market with really low volumes. If you have 10K to lose, you can move the numbers like nobody's business. Lots of our opponents have money to lose.

79 Sick Dave. That's crazy.

80 Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 03:13 PM (dX4hn) Again you're Nucking Futs !!

81

78  13.1 miles (half marathon) in 2:53:42. So an average of 13.25 min/mile

 

****lights a marlboro light*****

can you run a mile or two for me please?

82 Sock off.

83 Always important to remember. On election day in 2008, McCain won the vote in Ohio. Only Ohio's massive advantage in early voting won the state for him, by less than 250K votes out of the 6.6 million total cast. Did you hear me? McCain WON Ohio on Election Day! If Obama cannot duplicate his early vote windfall, he cannot win the state. And without Ohio, Obama has only one, very unlikely path to 270.

84 there shoulda been a flag on that kic k return

85 Run completed. 13.1 miles (half marathon) in 2:53:42. So an average of 13.25 min/mile. I'm pretty tired *eases back into my easy chair* Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 03:13 PM (dX4hn) I'll light up a cigar in your honor.

86 >****lights a marlboro light*****
can you run a mile or two for me please?



<butters a cinnamon roll>


me too

87 So will the libtard press investigate his connection with "someone who lived in the neighborhood"?

88 I declare this a football thread.

You can't just declare it. You have to notarize it, with a cheerleader pic.

Hi-res.

89 13.1 miles (half marathon) in 2:53:42. So an average of 13.25 min/mile. Did you jog all the way, or walk some of it? Bully for you, btw.

90 Wide right! A&M wastes their fabulous KO return.

91 Posted by: Chris R at October 20, 2012 03:15 PM (qP4e9) You know what is even worse? That McCain KNEW that there was vote fraud going on and didn't want to do anything because it was a historic election!!! McCain lost 2008 for us and that fucker should burn in hell. Obama actually got FEWER votes than John Kerry in 2004! It is just that McCain got nearly 300,000 less than George Bush!

92

78  Run completed.

 

13.1 miles (half marathon) in 2:53:42. So an average of 13.25 min/mile.

 

I'm pretty tired *eases back into my easy chair*

 

That's impressive, Dave.

 

Do you run on pavement?

 

I used to run, and loved it....but torn cartilege in both knees keeps me from it now.

93
We've seen the front end, so now here's the rear:

Corgi butt!

http://goo.gl/hMwJX

h/t: EP

94 Vandy 17, Auburn 13 with 2:30 left.

95
Damn! So much for trying to make a clickable link!

96 Posted by: Redd at October 20, 2012 03:21 PM (RoEtU) Definitely NSFW.

97 Vandy 17, Auburn 13 with 2:30 left. Tommy Tuberville laughs.

98 cheer

http://tinyurl.com/8fsgwf3

99 CAC's double downed this thread. While the cat's away ...

100 LSU's clock management has always sucked under Miles.

101 Obama actually got FEWER votes than John Kerry in 2004! It is just that McCain got nearly 300,000 less than George Bush!

Posted by: NWConservative at October 20, 2012 03:20 PM (M1gmo)

If you look at the vote totals that came in for red States that went Blue you can see what happened to McCain.  He pissed off the base and a lot of them sat at home. NC and VA should have never went for Obama.

102

57 "An elbow, my Kingdom for an elbow."

 

Well...we did get a thread about the creator of Elbonia.

 

103 If Mettenberger throws like this against Alabama next week it will be pick city.

104 Yep. Evangelicals stayed home and many conservatives didn't turn out.

105

Polling is not going to be very accurate, and it is going to get worse. 

 

Most of us hang up on pollsters.  Some of us have land lines we never answer, bacause we have DSL internet.  Some of us have cell phones, that we screen and let voicemail answer all the unknown phone calls.  Many of us that do not hang up, will tell them ridiculous lies.  My Mother, the second generation Republican from the MN Iron Range (the heart of DFL Yellow-dog Union Democrats) refuses to state her political choices correctly, she just mouths the expected DFL pap she hears on TV.  She is slightly paranoid, and feels that the polls are not as anonymous as people think they are.  She will ignore everyone and vote straight Republican.  Sort of like the inverse of the straight Democrat voter.

 

So, from this soup of self-selected, no longer random people, that may or may not be truthful. someone expects to glean accurate results?  When they do not even ask basic questions to cross check the accuracy of their sample?  Questions like who did you vote for in 2008 and 2010 for President or Governor or some other office?  Questions that can be compared to actual results, to see if you have a skewed sample? 

 

Sorry, but if you are within 5-10% you are doing good.

106 Vandy wins. Wow.

107

103...what happened to McCain. He pissed off the base and a lot of them sat at home.

 

Yep, Vic...and some of them were proud of that fact.

 

*shakes head*

 

Even Ann Coulter said she would rather vote for Hillary than McCain.

Not me.

I held my nose and voted for McAmnesty...and hoped that Palin might make a difference.

 

 

108 I held my nose and voted for McAmnesty...and hoped that Palin might make a difference.

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 03:31 PM (ipkPX)

Same here. But I have to say if it had not been for Palin I might have sat it out as well.

109 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

110 Yeah, I voted for that old guy that was going to keep the seat warm for Sarah.

111 I walk two 80 second segments out of every mile.  Kind of a modified Jeff Galloway method to stay fresher in the final miles.

I started running back in January when Breitbart died.  That was a wake up call telling I needed to take better care of myself.  Set a goal to run a half marathon in November.  Signed up for the Disney Wine and Dine half as soon as it opened up to force myself to train for it.

I'll be running it 3 weeks from today.

112 Okay, LSU is putting this away.

113 Just taking a break from doing a GOTV literature drop in my precinct. Doing all I know to do, and headed back out... LET'S DO THIS!

114 I had Galloway's book until someone borrowed it and never returned it. Smart guy.

115 Yeah, everyone is talking about the big misunderstanding of 2008.  Yes it was D+7, but that actually was D+2 over 2004 and R-5 under 2004.

Republicans stayed home in 2008, and the Independents went big for Obama.

116 This is super-tasty!!!!  CAC, if you're listening, I would be most honored to buy you and Mrs. CAC the beverage of your choice.  You are doing an absolutely outstanding job with this whole election thing. 

117 Here's how the PPP results would look under different weighting scenarios: If the self-reported numbers in the poll are accurate and 21% have actually voted: Obama 48.6%, Romney 48.2%. If the numbers reportedly from the Ohio Secretary of State are right and 11% have already voted: Romney 50.0%, Obama 46.4%. If we assume OH SOS is lagging a bit, or that some but not all of the voters are intending to vote early but haven't yet, or whatever, we might think the true number is somewhere in the middle. E.g., let's say 16%: Romney 49.1%, Obama 47.5%. IDK if PPP accounts for the problem of response-bias among early voters some other way, but if they don't, these are pretty good numbers for Romney.

118 Does Gerg and the rest of the Obamanauts know that he doesn't have to vote again this time because his vote will be recorded the same as last time?

119 If the poll show twice as many early votes as actually happened, doesn't that mean the poll is subject to a tremendous amount of lying, and that its results can barely be trusted?

120 We can discuss the minutiae of the turnout models by political party ID, but the bottom line is that the Democrats only chance is for the national turnout to favor them over Republicans by at least 3% (with their advantages in each swing state having to be at least half as much as 2008 for them to have any chance in any of them). If national turnout is similar to 2004 when both parties were even, Romney wins by 3-4% and probably gets 300 EVs. You just know that Democrats and the Obama/Biden campaign know this, which is why they're very worried.

The biggest advantage for Obama/Biden this election is that they won by such a sizable margin in 2008 (at least in recent history), that they started out with a huge advantage in 2012. After all, it's more difficult to get someone to vote for your ticket the first time more than it should be to get them to do it again. But that assumes that the ticket's performance in office is at least somewhat successful. Obama/Biden's hasn't been despite those polls with Dem. +7 samples using registered voters showing Obama's approval rating at around 50%. If Obama/Biden had only won in '08 by the margin Bush/Cheney did in 2004, this race would already be over.

121 2 votes for R/R cast yesterday by this Ohio household!

122 George Soros always hated Big Tex.

123 Let's assume for a moment that both PPP polls (that of 10/13/12 and that of 10/20/12) are "dead on balls accurate" (a la Lisa in My Cousin Vinny).  What does this tell us about absentee ballots?  For the purpose of what follows, I'll assume a total Ohio Vote of 6 million, slightly higher than 2008.  I only settled on 6 million because its close to the 2008 total and makes discussion of the situation (and the computations) easier.  (I didn't do the computations anyway - I let an applet do it.)

If, as of 10/13/12, 19% had already voted and voted 76% for Obama and 24% for Romney AND as of 10/20/12, 21% had already voted and voted 66% for Obama and 34% for Romney AND the total population of voters being sampled is 6 million, we have the following system of equations, where x is the number of Obama votes cast by absentee ballots and y is the number of Romney votes cast by absentee ballot:, where x and y are in  millions of votes:

(I used the applet at http://tinyurl.com/gu4qg to solve the system.)

.76x + .24y = .19(6)
.66x + ,34y = .21(6)

This becomes :

.76x + .24y = 1.14
.66x + .34y = 1.26

The ONLY solution to this system of equations is x = .852 and y = 2.052.

If we are willing to accept that absentee ballots will consist of 852,000 Obama votes and 2.05 million Romney votes (2.4 times as many Romney votes as Obama votes cast by absentee ballot) AND those  who have not yet voted favor Romney by 52/44 (10/20 poll) or 51/45 (10/20 poll) BUT Obama will win by 1 per cent, THEN we can accept these polls.

124 I should have said "51/45 (10/13 poll)", not 51/45 (10/20 poll)" in my previous post.

Accepting the two pols as "dead on balls accurate", would also require that we accept that almost 50% of the votes will be cast by absentee ballot (2.9 million out of 6 million). and that 120000 absentee ballots were cast between the two polls (2% of 6 million).

Assume that out of 6 million votes cast that Obama takes 76% of the first 19% cast and 66% of the first 21% cast.  Let x represent the percentage of Obama votes in the 2% of votes cast in between the two polls

.76(.19 * 6) + x(.02*6) = .66(.21*6)
.8664+ .12x = .8316
.12x = -.0348
x = -0.29

The negative value for x tells us that in order for the two polls to both correctly reflect the Ohio electorate, 290,000 Obama voters who had voted as of 10/13 would have to have changed their vote to Romney as of 10/20.

125 My post of 5:04 PM is incorrect and should be removed.  My analysis assumes that x and y are the same in the two polls.  This obviously (should have been obvious to me) cannot be the case.

My second post does not rely on this incorrect assumption.

126 Nice prose, OB. Gives me a hard on, but I like my women soft in some places, hard in others, and wet in most places.

127

Let me try, BILL M.

 

If 6 million votes are to be cast, 19% of that vote (13OCT) is 1.14M.  76% of that is 886k (Obama), while 24% of that is 274k (Romney).

 

21% (20OCT) of the 6 million is 1.26M.  66% of that is 832k (Obama), while 34% is 428k (Romney).

 

So if all these numbers are true, about 54,000 Obama votes somehow disappeared in the course of a week.

 

So the numbers are apparently bogus on their face.

128 My post of 5:19 PM is also in error.

x represents a percentage of votes, not a number of votes. 

According to the polls (assuming an electorate of 6 million voters):

.76 * .19 * 6000000 = 866,400 votes for Obama as of 10/13
.66 * .21 * 6000000 = 831,660 votes for Obama as of 10/20

866400 - 831660 = 34,800

34,800 votes would have to change from Obama to Romney in between in order for both polls to be (exactly) correct.

129 Thanks, Optimizer.   The difference between your correction to my post and mine is that .76 * .19 * 6 million is 866K, not 886 K.

Nevertheless, some votes would have to disappear.