1 CAC, not to beat a dead thread but that Reuter's poll was online Registered Voters....not LV's.

2 Shit, even I'm starting to believe this shit.   After Ryan last night I'm even starting to think.........Pennsylvania  might go red.    It's crazy, sure, but it Just.  Might. Happen.

3 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

4 Just a public service reminder: Reality Check is the former Nationalist, an avowed white supremacist Illinois Nazi troll who has always loved Henry Gibson. And Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable tyrant.

5 The more that Obama puts Jennifer Granholm on the national stage, the more in play Michigan will be. people here are trying to forget her and what she did to our state. putting her face and voice in front of us is rubbing salt in not yet healed wounds. Jennifer Granholm is another Obama fail at the convention. BTW, she signed voter ID law into Michigan, and on Current TV she recently said it should be illegal. She has a short memory, I guess.

6 RCP avg made up of:

EPIC-MRA- didn't show splits
Mitchell- D+6
Detroit News- D+6
B/F- didn't show splits.

So the news is even better- with splits that bear a resemblance to reality, RMoney is tied or leading in Michigan.

RCP is demented nonsense masquerading as mathematics- averaging ridicutardedly skewed polls just creates a big bowl of pureed shit, instead of several smaller bowls of less processed feces.

RMoney, for the win!

7 You know, for all the bashing of Obama, he has convinced me, I will NOT vote for George W Bush this election!   Obama is that good.

8

CAC, this was asked in another thread but not sure if answered: what was Nate Silver at 538 banging on about with Michigan?

He seemed to be saying it's not a tossup based on one poll's "bad" weighting, without acknowledging that it's now 4-5 polls putting the race neck and neck?

9 Quoting CAC: "In it, Michigan independents split 51-38 for Romney, women split only 51-44 for Obama, men are a knifes' edge 48/47 for Romney."

I did not realize that "independents" meant a third gender, unless that means the ghey vote, in which Obama's gonna be disappointed at the lack of support from the GLBT voting bloc on this poll.

10 8
CAC, this was asked in another thread but not sure if answered: what was Nate Silver at 538 banging on about with Michigan?
He seemed to be saying it's not a tossup based on one poll's "bad" weighting, without acknowledgingthat it's now 4-5 polls putting the race neck and neck?

Posted by: AussieMarcus at August 30, 2012 08:04 PM (EwxYH)

Nate thinks all the states will go Dem, even Alabama and Mississippi, it's just that the polls don't show it, yet. He takes every bad poll for Dems and discounts them while weighting the Dem positive ones. I know he still has Virginia as leaning for Obama even though the polls coming out all have Romney ahead, plus these polls are all ridiculous partisan split of about D+7.

11 Nate Silver is detached from reality. He has over-tweaked his model to the point that it is reflecting his internal biases, not the general dynamics of the objective world.

This is what happens when you get too close, when you try to model a complex system too precisely -- you add idiosyncrasies as you add each additional function since you can only add what you see, you only see what you're predisposed to seeing. Thus, your biased vision enters the blank slate of the model.

In the early part of the next week I will rerun his basic numbers and if his crap still is so blatant, I will email CAC or Ace with it. I figured it would get swallowed in the RNC.

12 Realistically, the Obama campaign must see the point of light getting closer. Sorry to inject in this thread, but realized the last poll thread was dead.

From Real Clear Politics, the race is over unless Romney fucks up:

FL, OH, VA, IA are gone for him. His 'lead' is < 1.4% in all states and more importantly he's < 47% in all states. Done, that's the election.

CO is O +1.6% @ 47.6%. CO is where the battleground is right now.

When you collapse the states into the 1 dimensional republican <--> dem order that they fall into based on ideology, history, etc, CO is in the middle now.

MI is O +1.2% @ 47% is out of the traditional order I mentioned above. Chalk it up to Romney's Home effect and Ryan's regional effect.

WI is O +1.4% @ 48%. Going to be close, but Obama still has edge.

NV is O +3.3% @ 49%. It's gone for us. Doesn't matter, fuck you anyways.

13

I will only post this once, because it is incontrivertible-

MI is NOT in play.

Any state that will elect Granholm TWICE, Stabenow THREE TIMES (she should be working a counter at an auto parts store, at best), and Carl Levin SIX terms,

AND has let unions drive their stae into the dirt,

IS NOT, by any stretch of the imagination,

going to vote for Romney.

All the smart ones have left- many are here in Texas now. I Know business owners who have moved across the border to Ohio- the smarter ones have gone to Dixieland.

 

There just aren't that many people who do not have their hand out for Obama money left in MI- maybe if they have a couple concerts with free beer the night before the election, perhaps- but it just ain't gonna happen.

PA, OH, WI, MN, maybe. NOT MI.

14 I answered a computer phone poll for PPP yesterday in Michigan. I pressed those buttons so hard hoping to make it count more. Very straight forward poll but long. Covered all the major candidates and issues, national and state. They even asked about Clint Eastwood at the RNC. Just Press 1 for approve/support Just Press 2 for disapprove/not support Just Press 3 for undecided I expected more of a push type poll from PPP but it was "just the facts ma'am" type of questions. The only thing is that they only ask for age range and sex so very open to anybody to respond if they picked up the phone. I'll be curious to see the results