March 28, 2012

More Election Porn (Gubernatorial Edition)
— CAC

This last one isn't a "best case scenario" either. It's how I actually see the few gubernatorial elections going this year. The Demplosion of 2010 on this level was massive, with Republicans entering 2011 up 29-20-1 over the Democrats. If that was the Permian Mass Extinction, 2012 will be Chicxulub: Governors' Races 2012

The biggest surprise is West Virginia. I see a rematch of 2011, but with more time on the side of the Republican who ran out before he could enjoy his surge late last year. Maloney barely lost to Governor Tomblin, 49-47, in a race that had started off giving the Governor a 30+ point lead. PPP even issued a caveat in their final polling (giving Tomblin a 47-46 edge) that Earl Ray could thank his lucky stars Maloney didn't have until November (the special election was held in October), because he would have lost.

Posted by: CAC at 05:27 AM | Comments (157)
Post contains 154 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at March 28, 2012 06:13 AM (8y9MW)

2 Racism!

Posted by: nickless at March 28, 2012 06:14 AM (MMC8r)

3 It's probably a good thing TX doesn't have a governor's race this year.  Perry really took a beating in the Prez. Primary.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at March 28, 2012 06:14 AM (8y9MW)

4 Am I the only one who can't get on the Drudge Report right now? Weird.

Posted by: Robert at March 28, 2012 06:15 AM (nuu5o)

5 CHICXULUB!

Posted by: joncelli, at the climax of mental masturbation at March 28, 2012 06:16 AM (RD7QR)

6 There should not be an election for governor in Wisconsin this year.  We  elected Scott Walker to a 4 year term in 2010. Thank you, screaming leftist teacher union thugs for making us do this all over again.  For the children.

Posted by: mama winger at March 28, 2012 06:17 AM (P6QsQ)

7 Am I the only one who can't get on the Drudge Report right now? Weird.

It just took me a good 30 seconds to pull up.  They may just be having exceptional traffic.

Or they're sniffing their web server requests for your IP so they can refuse your ability to connect.  Maybe they don't want your cooties.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at March 28, 2012 06:17 AM (8y9MW)

8 Gimme a flaming skull, or the bunny rabbit gets it!

Posted by: Darth Chipmunk at March 28, 2012 06:18 AM (pVvkk)

9 Washington State?  Huh?

Is Rossi going to finally win after 4 tries?

Posted by: Dave in Fla at March 28, 2012 06:19 AM (j+DX4)

10

 "Thank you, screaming leftist teacher union thugs for making us do this all over again. For the children."
**

That's why they trashed the State House too, for the children.

Posted by: kallisto at March 28, 2012 06:20 AM (jm/9g)

11

What's going on in Missouri? How do they have a blue gov? They keep getting redder.

 

Also, I will eat my hat if we win Washington. We're always told this is the year and it never happens.  

Posted by: Ben at March 28, 2012 06:21 AM (wuv1c)

12 Was CAC's NSFW post really NSFW or something requiring brain bleach?

Posted by: Buzzsaw at March 28, 2012 06:22 AM (tf9Ne)

13 Was CAC's NSFW post really NSFW or something requiring brain bleach?

Neither.  It was a "Best Case Scenario" projection of Senate Races.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at March 28, 2012 06:23 AM (8y9MW)

14 Greetings from Vegas, ya'll. 


Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 28, 2012 06:25 AM (PJ+vx)

15 Greetings from Vegas, ya'll.
Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 28, 2012 10:25 AM (PJ+vx)




Check the roof first!

Posted by: EC at March 28, 2012 06:26 AM (GQ8sn)

16 Wait, MO (i.e. my state) has a Governors election this year? Is anyone even running against Nixon?  To be entirely fair, he's handled the splurge of natural disasters as well as could be expected.  I imagine it'd be pretty hard to run against that right now (give it a few years, he'll screw it up.)

Posted by: tsrblke at March 28, 2012 06:26 AM (SYrwI)

17 does this blog make me look fat?

Posted by: Clutch Cargo at March 28, 2012 06:27 AM (Qxdfp)

18 >>Thank you, screaming leftist teacher union thugs for making us do this all over again. For the children.

Well you know, overturning legitimate elections because you didn't like the results is "what democracy looks like."    And did you see the story about thugs killing the new puppy of a Walker supporter in Dane County?

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at March 28, 2012 06:29 AM (ZKzrr)

19 Is Rossi going to finally win after 4 tries?

Posted by: Dave in Fla at March 28, 2012 10:19 AM (j+DX4)


It's actually the State AG running against our lame duck Queen Christine Gregoire.

Sen. Maria Cantwell's polling has been lower than expected. Of course, the RNC ain't pouring enough money into Baumgartner's http://votebaumgartner.com/ campaign. Asshats.


Posted by: Sean Connery's Hand at March 28, 2012 06:29 AM (EL+OC)

20 Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at March 28, 2012 10:23 AM

Thanks, I assumed it wasn't really NSFW but wasn't willing to risk opening it.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at March 28, 2012 06:30 AM (tf9Ne)

21

Soap

It's Cleveland.  Who knows what their polling methodology was?  It's just BS cranked up for the masses of idiots that read their paper.

Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch, writes..... at March 28, 2012 06:30 AM (sJTmU)

22 And did you see the story about thugs killing the new puppy of a Walker supporter in Dane County?

Please post the link.

Posted by: EC at March 28, 2012 06:30 AM (GQ8sn)

23 BLOOD IN THE STREETS BY SUMMER! RACE WAR COMING SOON! SECOND HOLOCAUST JUST AROUND THE CORNER! ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IMMINENT! CATASTROPHIC RETRIBUTION BY NEXT WEEK! OCCUPY TO BEGIN DECAPITATIONS! ELVIS SPOTTED IN IOWA CITY!

Posted by: Welcome To The Glenn Beck Show at March 28, 2012 06:31 AM (ETgqz)

24 did you see the story about thugs killing the new puppy of a Walker supporter in Dane County?
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at March 28, 2012 10:29 AM



Oh my gosh, no. 

Posted by: mama winger at March 28, 2012 06:32 AM (P6QsQ)

25

Well, Reynolds puts puppies in the blender all the time.

 

 

At least that's what Frank Fleming says, and he's unbalanced and unmedicated.

Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch, writes..... at March 28, 2012 06:32 AM (sJTmU)

26 Soap MacTavish, Rasmussen has it O over R 48-40, so yep, big gap between the Pres race and the Senate race there. Oddly Quinnipiac shows Obama barely edging Romney in PA, 45-42.

Posted by: CAC at March 28, 2012 06:33 AM (6gk77)

27 Number of ejaculations:  5

Posted by: toby928© at March 28, 2012 06:33 AM (GTbGH)

28 34 Republican governors means never having to see a fucking Senator or Representative in a primary again.

Posted by: t-bird at March 28, 2012 06:34 AM (FcR7P)

29 Which is another data point in why you see so much sheer anger and panic among the professional left: They have nobody left to run for President; they have no governors from swing states or from states with broad appeal, all they are left with is HRC and even more narrow appeal senators. The right, on the other hand, has a shit-load of rockstars who just need a bit of time to mature. [That's right, resign yourself to Romney as a placeholder Prez until the A-Team is ready.]

They went all in on the JEF; they thought their two of Clubs and two of Spades would be enough to win it all.

They have to--have to--have the JEF win to cement their power. See, while we're well aware of their projection that the right is racist, evil, etc., we forget that they also project their own ruthlessness, relentlessness and drive--they think if they lose now, the right will roll it all back. They really don't know the GOP very well . . . .

Posted by: Jimmuy at March 28, 2012 06:36 AM (kSaUf)

30 Mmmm.... puppies

Posted by: Darth Chipmunk at March 28, 2012 06:36 AM (niW49)

31 I agree the GOP will flip NH, NC and MT. WV, on the other hand, is going to be a very tough nut to crack. True, the Republican might have prevailed last time around in a November election, but that was then. Now the Dem is an elected incumbent and incumbents are just tough to beat. In WA McKenna is a very strong candidate, but don't forget the Gregoire-Rossi fiasco. If it comes right down to the wire the Dems will steal that contest via election fraud. Also, the fact that that contest is in the Pacific Time Zone could turn out to be bad news for McKenna. The media will be using their election night coverage to try to influence the results. There's a material chance that a large number of Republicans in places like WA will get duped into not bothering to vote.

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at March 28, 2012 06:36 AM (r2PLg)

32 >>Please post the link.

I would love to, but the blogs that covered it are blocked at my office.  CAC or someone could get it off my Facebook, I posted it there last night.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at March 28, 2012 06:36 AM (ZKzrr)

33 It says that "Quinnipiac surveyed 1,246 Ohio voters by phone from March 20 to March 26. The margin of error is 2.8 percent."

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at March 28, 2012 10:34 AM (vbh31)

I read somewhere that the sampling in that poll matched 2008 with a large D discrepancy.  No where near the 2010 which is what the author believed 2012 will be like.

Posted by: Hedgehog at March 28, 2012 06:37 AM (3jGS1)

34 >>>They went all in on the JEF; they thought their two of Clubs and two of Spades would be enough to win it all.

Racist.

Posted by: taylork at March 28, 2012 06:38 AM (5wsU9)

35 Folks, be sure to click on CAC's flickr page to revisit all his great "Avastin" work with that lovely DD cup model.

What's her phone number, CAC?

Posted by: EC at March 28, 2012 06:38 AM (GQ8sn)

36

well.... if this doesn't get a flaming skull, can we at least haz our dancing ewok?

Posted by: pitchforksandpowder at March 28, 2012 06:39 AM (6M2rK)

37

@25

Um....dude, if you haven't noticed the growing anti-Semeticism and strident calls for revolution and even murder on the part of the leftists, you haven't been paying attention.  Also, if you think the world economy or even the U.S. economy is healthy, well, good luck with that.

Posted by: Retired Buckeye Cop at March 28, 2012 06:39 AM (M0NzJ)

38 Ed at hotair breaks down those polls here.
http://tinyurl.com/dy94as9

Posted by: Hedgehog at March 28, 2012 06:40 AM (3jGS1)

39 >>ELVIS SPOTTED IN IOWA CITY!

His rhinestoned fat ass has got way too much class for that cesspool.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at March 28, 2012 06:41 AM (ZKzrr)

40

Living here in parallel Hell, or Ohio for you outsiders, the telephone polls are especially suspect.

 

How are the phone call numbers generated and selected? Who answers or responds?

Like most states, political affiliations within the state can be incredibly oriented with the respect to location.  I live in a highly Republican area, but you can go a few miles away, and it becomes highly Democrat populated.

 

The R's are not particularly popular statewide right now because of Issue 2 (SB5 referendum) last fall. Gov. Kasich wanted to control pension and benefit expenses by reducing collective bargaining rights, and the usual union suspects rallied to oppose it.

However, he also got a two-year balanced budget through the Assembly without raising taxes, and unemployment is dropping, imperceptibly as it might seem.  After years of crapping on business by the state government (Republicans and Democrats), there is the beginnings of a small bounce back.  Kasich will get no credit for it from the news vultures, but it seems to be happening nonetheless.  Poll numbers might change a lot in six months.

Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch, writes..... at March 28, 2012 06:43 AM (sJTmU)

41

@AllenG, re:  Rick Perry.

NO JOKE.  Honestly, there were times last election that I didn't think he'd survive over White.  Honestly, even for a while after Glenn's ruination of her campaign, I was a Medina supporter.

I think that, were Rick up for re-election, he would have either not run, or would have been "primaried" by a conservative with less baggage and the wisdom to not talk to any national radio hosts that are close friends with an opponent.

I wish there was an AoS-TX Politics Edition somewhere.  I wish I had someone outside of my family to really talk about the races we do have this year...

Posted by: reason at March 28, 2012 06:44 AM (kZVsz)

42 I can see 1980 from my house !!!!

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at March 28, 2012 06:44 AM (Dll6b)

43 FLORIDA: Obama 49 – Romney 42 OHIO: Obama 47 – Romney 41 PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 45 – Romney 42

Posted by: Quinnipiac U at March 28, 2012 06:46 AM (J3Ovp)

44 happy , happy, joy, joy, Greg is here.

Posted by: willow at March 28, 2012 06:47 AM (TomZ9)

45

It might be a good idea to have a more or less general designation of which Governor's have real power, and which states have strong legislatures that pretty much run things. 

 

I thought that was the case in Missouri, with previous Govs like Ashcroft and the late Mel Carnahan both being popular, while being almost complete opposites.  I don't live that far away, but I never hear anything about Jay Nixon, if anything comes out of Jeff City it's about what the legislature is doing. 

Posted by: BurtTC at March 28, 2012 06:49 AM (TOk1P)

46

Average Joe sucks cock by choice.

That is all.

Posted by: toby928© at March 28, 2012 06:50 AM (GTbGH)

47 I think that, were Rick up for re-election, he would have either not run, or would have been "primaried" by a conservative with less baggage and thewisdom to not talk to any national radio hosts that are close friends with an opponent.

I think the second one is more likely.  Honestly, though, I think Rick would win a Republican Primary (it's not the Republicans who are upset with him), but would barely lose in a State-Wide race (maybe- at the very least, he'd have to campaign harder than he did in either of the last two elections).

The only State-wide race I can think of this year is the Senate Race (Tom Leppert, Ted Cruz, David Dewhurst, maybe someone else?).  I don't like any of them.  Ted Cruz seems to have a lot of conservative support, so I might be able to vote for him, but David Dewhurst is too moderate for me (and a lawyer), and Tom Leppert was Liberal enough to be elected in Dallas.  Ted Cruz is also a lawyer, and has never held elective office, though, so he's a bit of an enigma.  I don't like electing enigmas to the Senate.  They're there far too long to gamble, IMO.

I think it's a given that whoever win the Primary wins the General, though, and should be infinitely better than whoever the Democrats nominate, so I'm fairly sanguine, there.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at March 28, 2012 06:50 AM (8y9MW)

48 Yet MSNBC keeps pretending Obama will somehow win comfortably, or - at worst - that it will somehow be "close." Bullshit. 2012 will leave a lasting mark on the Democrats.

Posted by: CoolCzech at March 28, 2012 06:52 AM (niZvt)

49 Greg is here. That means that somewhere, a dick is missing it's head.

Posted by: maddogg at March 28, 2012 06:52 AM (OlN4e)

50 Greg is desperate for some good news. Nevermind the R primary still isn't over, and he refuses to comment on the Marquette poll he was gushing over just days ago. Hurt that Romney cut Obama's lead from 15 to 5 there?

Posted by: CAC at March 28, 2012 06:56 AM (C3KwS)

51 Greg is here. That means that somewhere, a glory hole is missing it's glory.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at March 28, 2012 06:56 AM (tf9Ne)

52 I am finding Philly libs interesting they are all Paulites now (I know, I know). just to get away from JEF but not near the R damaged brand. If Paul were to go third party . . . I'm not sure it wouldn't kill the Dems moreso than the Rs I could be wrong tho, just a feeling. He probably won't go third party anyway.

Posted by: BlackOrchid at March 28, 2012 06:58 AM (SB0V2)

53 I suck camels off to power my ass floats with magical semenelectricity.

Posted by: Greg at March 28, 2012 06:59 AM (J3Ovp)

54 The difference between the Senate polls and Presidential polls are a case study in polling flaws during a nomination fight.  Despite Greg's giddiness, there is no way that the GOP has a huge year in the Senate, but Obama gets reelected.  I pointed this out yesterday, and I still haven't thought of an example.

I don't believe that there has ever been a reelection of a sitting President that was accompanied by the opposition party flipping one of the houses of Congress.

If Obama is reelected, he will also hold the Senate.  The only way he can win is through severely depressing the GOP and independents while turning out 100% of the Dem base.  In that case, they will also win all the Senate races.

What you are seeing is Santorum people (and vice versa) pissed because people aren't voting for their guy.  Once there is a consolidation around a candidate, then these polls will flip.  Also remember, all the advertising running right now is negative against one of the GOP candidates. No one is running against Obama, so Obama's negatives are self inflicted.

It is very very telling that Obama doesn't break 50% in any of those polls.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at March 28, 2012 07:00 AM (j+DX4)

55 Is Rossi going to finally win after 4 tries?



Nah he'll lose on the 4th or 5th recount again.

Posted by: NC Ref at March 28, 2012 07:01 AM (GrCp5)

56 It soooo BIG and Bold and FREE!!11!!

Posted by: S. Flook at March 28, 2012 07:01 AM (8ieXv)

57 Greg, do you like gladiator movies????


Posted by: SantaRosaStan at March 28, 2012 07:01 AM (Dll6b)

58 Actually, the Permian mass extinction was worse than the one caused by Chicxulub.

Posted by: rickl at March 28, 2012 07:01 AM (zoehZ)

59 That's "goobernatorial."

Posted by: rdbrewer at March 28, 2012 07:01 AM (Iyg03)

60 More and more people are recognizing, at least at the state level, what unmitigated clusterfucks Dem leaders bring to them -- businesses and people migrate out while taxes soar. But for purposes of change in the Constitution, this map leaves us a little short still. What changes, you might ask. I'm thinking of clarifying restrictive language on the Commerce Clause as well as the generic 'necessary and proper' language that has been tortured beyond any recognizable original intent and meaning. To do that, here's what would be needed:
 
There are essentially two ways spelled out in the Constitution for how to propose an amendment. One has never been used.

The first method is for a bill to pass both houses of the legislature, by a two-thirds majority in each. Once the bill has passed both houses, it goes on to the states. This is the route taken by all current amendments. Because of some long outstanding amendments, such as the 27th, Congress will normally put a time limit (typically seven years) for the bill to be approved as an amendment (for example, see the 21st and 22nd).

The second method prescribed is for a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States, and for that Convention to propose one or more amendments. These amendments are then sent to the states to be approved by three-fourths of the legislatures or conventions. This route has never been taken, and there is discussion in political science circles about just how such a convention would be convened, and what kind of changes it would bring about.

 
In either case, 38 state legislatures or state conventions are needed to pass an Amendment. So 34 R governors is a good start but not enough -- if we assume that the Ds would vigorously oppose change (a safe bet imho). Note that going the Convention route dodges both the Pres and the Congress entirely. They would have to stand around holding their impotent dicks and mewling like newborns on an empty titty.
 
Oh, and good morning all.

Posted by: GnuBreed at March 28, 2012 07:01 AM (ccXZP)

61 Brain damaged spider monkey 62% - Greg 35% The guy from Hills Have Eyes. 61% - Greg. 36% Curious cat piss lady 1%. - Greg 2%

Posted by: polynikes at March 28, 2012 07:02 AM (HzcmT)

62 Obama is just so damned smart.  He's thinking up a way to win it all right now.

Posted by: rdbrewer at March 28, 2012 07:03 AM (Iyg03)

63 61Actually, the Permian mass extinction was worse than the one caused by Chicxulub.

Posted by: rickl at March 28, 2012 11:01 AM (zoehZ)

 

 

 

 

You do realize that Chicxulub is another "concensus" determination? There are some noted paleonologists who aren't buying the asteroid theory.

Posted by: maddogg at March 28, 2012 07:05 AM (OlN4e)

64 What does Rasmussen say about O and $5/gallon gas? Just askin. Just tie a ham sammich around Romney's neck and we get a landslide.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at March 28, 2012 07:05 AM (ursbV)

65 not in the modern era, Dave.  In 48, Truman won and the Dems won back both houses of Congress.  In 52, Ike won and the Rs won both houses for the last time until 1994.  Nixon won in 68 with both houses staying R, but many were 'Southern Democrats' whose votes he could count on in various votes.

Clinton got re-elected while the House and Senate stayed R, but he had Perot helping him. 


Posted by: SantaRosaStan at March 28, 2012 07:05 AM (Dll6b)

66 Heh.

Posted by: toby928© at March 28, 2012 07:05 AM (GTbGH)

67 Newt lays off a third of his campaign staff. He's out.

Posted by: Jimmah at March 28, 2012 07:05 AM (UpwlP)

68 Two questions to ponder: #1 Public opinion is against Obamacare, (except for the nifty pre-existing part, which happens to be the most insidious part of the law), but did the Republicans do all they could in making the case for repeal, or could they have done more? #2 Everyone hates these high gas prices, and the prices have been high for almost two years. Did the Republicans do a good job politicizing the issue, i.e., putting the blame right on Obama's lap?

Posted by: Soothsayer at March 28, 2012 07:06 AM (jUytm)

69 I meant both houses staying "D" in 68

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at March 28, 2012 07:06 AM (Dll6b)

70 I keep hearing Ted Cruz ads saying stuff like he defended this or that against liberal retards, yadda yadda yadda.... I am going to have to start researching these dudes now that April is rolling around. You are right about Leppert - he is a RINO through and through in my book. Whatever happened to the guy on the Railroad commission who was going to run??/

Posted by: San Antonio Rose at March 28, 2012 07:07 AM (rtvsq)

71

6661Actually, the Permian mass extinction was worse than the one caused by Chicxulub.Posted by: rickl at March 28, 2012 11:01 AM (zoehZ) You do realize that Chicxulub is another "concensus" determination? There are some noted paleonologists who aren't buying the asteroid theory.

 

It was all caused by an increase in gravity. Shit falls from the sky and excessively large animals are crushed by their own weight.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at March 28, 2012 07:07 AM (ursbV)

72 Posted by: Welcome To The Glenn Beck Show

Yeah, because Glenn was completely wrong about Van Jones and other stuff too. You know, it wouldn't hurt to be prepared if he's right about the topics you're mocking him over.

Posted by: Spock grocks Glocks, say it 3X fast at March 28, 2012 07:07 AM (jj2g1)

73

[X]  Win Reelection.

Done.

Posted by: Barry Soetoro at March 28, 2012 07:07 AM (GTbGH)

74 I wasn't sure about 1948, given the supposed weakness of Truman, but Truman not only won reelection, he flipped both the House and Senate to Dem.

I'm trying to find if FDR lost the House or Senate during one of his reelection years, but it looks like he lost both houses during a midterm.

Surprisingly hard to find results from back then.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at March 28, 2012 07:07 AM (j+DX4)

75 >>I don't believe that there has ever been a reelection of a sitting President that was accompanied by the opposition party flipping one of the houses of Congress.

Woodrow Wilson, 1916.  House flipped to Republicans.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at March 28, 2012 07:08 AM (ZKzrr)

76 I found the link to the Hate Walker / Kill a Puppy story:

http://www.timnerenz.com/2012/03/farm-animals.html

Posted by: mama winger at March 28, 2012 07:08 AM (P6QsQ)

77 Fuck dat pudding.  Any flavor.

Posted by: NO LIMIT EWOK at March 28, 2012 07:08 AM (/Mla1)

78 the fact that Beck is marginally crazy but often prescient / accurate shows how screwed up the Current Era is.  Really really screwed up'; big time, all the time

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at March 28, 2012 07:09 AM (Dll6b)

79 The electorate is a little different now than 1916, though.  Heh.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at March 28, 2012 07:09 AM (ZKzrr)

80 Cruz is not a RINO, btw.  He's a movement conservative.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at March 28, 2012 07:09 AM (j+DX4)

81 Gas prices are high and rising like crazy at exactly the wrong time - people are BUSY and having to drive a lot right now. Everyone is really stressed out about it. I'm back to "fill up at half-tank" mode. It's not good. Our Wawa changes pricing on Friday AM, so I try to go on Thursdays, but last week got busy. I ran out at night and there were LINES. It went up 10 cents a gal the next morning. Then, when the summer comes, people are going to be even pissier when they try to drive to the shore and pay GINORMOUS tolls thanks to Corzine on top of the high gas prices. Oh and the many roads endlessly under construction due to sucking up federal stimulus dollars in PA and NJ, so enjoy the bad traffic, too.

Posted by: BlackOrchid at March 28, 2012 07:09 AM (SB0V2)

82 Okay it was Michael Williams who is now running for a House seat. I liked him for senate Ted Cruz was Solicitor General for Texas. So eh, another lawyer. Surprise

Posted by: San Antonio Rose at March 28, 2012 07:11 AM (rtvsq)

83 1916 was, like, a long time ago.  The 1912 election tore the Republican Party apart, so them losing Congress that year was as much a fluck / fluke as Wilson getting elected.  In 1916, the Party was still the dominant party in the country but had no leader.

 ( Hence,  W. Gamaliel Harding in 1920 )

Bull Moose, my ass.

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at March 28, 2012 07:11 AM (Dll6b)

84 Whatever happened to the guy on the Railroad commission who was going to run??

On the Ted Cruz stuff- he did "defend X, Y, and Z" from "liberals"  In court.  At the direction of State AG Gregg Abbott.  He did so quite ably, apparently, and even argued at least one case in front of SCOTUS.  But that doesn't say anything (to me) about his personal positions.

Michael Williams (the RR Commissioner) decided to run for Congress in one of the new districts (happens to be the one I'll be in).  He's running, in the primary, against Roger Williams- former Sec State of Texas.  As far as that goes, I'm just as undecided about my Rep race as the Senate race- but the other way: I know they'll both be good- I'm trying to figure out which one is better.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at March 28, 2012 07:12 AM (8y9MW)

85

Like the last time when gas prices spiked, the people living on the edge will go over. A new wave of foreclosures has to be in the works right now.

Posted by: Jimmah at March 28, 2012 07:13 AM (UpwlP)

86 So we have to go to a blog to get the puppy scoop? *sniff* *sniff* smells more like a BULL scoop

Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at March 28, 2012 07:13 AM (QTHTd)

87

"I think it's a given that whoever win the Primary wins the General, though, and should be infinitely better than whoever the Democrats nominate, so I'm fairly sanguine, there."

 

Jussa you wait until I unveil my FABOOLUS PLAN for Nationalized Hair Care!

Posted by: Farouk Chamois at March 28, 2012 07:13 AM (kZVsz)

88

the fact that Beck is marginally crazy ...

 

... puts him in perfect sync with the times.

Posted by: Jay Guevara at March 28, 2012 07:14 AM (S9ctq)

89 Thanks Heather, that is a useful Wiki entry.

I think I'll take those odds.

So to rephrase: No sitting president since Woodrow Wilson has won reelection while losing one of the chambers to the opposition party.


Posted by: Dave in Fla at March 28, 2012 07:14 AM (j+DX4)

90 bought any paint lately???? Not cheapo.  Very expensive.  $45 for Big Can

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at March 28, 2012 07:15 AM (Dll6b)

91 No sitting president since Woodrow Wilson has won reelection while losing one of the chambers to the opposition party.

A trend is a trend, until it's not.  Up until the last election, the House has never changed hands without the Senate also changing.

Posted by: Barry Soetoro at March 28, 2012 07:15 AM (GTbGH)

92 I also read on a blog that some pro-union advocates tied up Walker's daughter onto a railway line, and sat back twirling their moustaches.

Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at March 28, 2012 07:15 AM (QTHTd)

93 Beck supposedly has some degree of aspergers which makes him seem a little off.

Posted by: Jimmah at March 28, 2012 07:15 AM (UpwlP)

94 dammit

Posted by: toby928© at March 28, 2012 07:16 AM (GTbGH)

95 Barry's going down like it was a Chitown Saturday night.

Posted by: toby928© at March 28, 2012 07:17 AM (GTbGH)

96 If the Democrats can regulate and tax the shit out of gas (and oil companies and refineries and gas stations) and then successfully con the people into blaming the "big oil's greed" for high gas prices, then why can't Republicans get the people to blame Teacher's Unions for stupid kids?

Posted by: Soothsayer at March 28, 2012 07:17 AM (jUytm)

97 Okay the puppy killing link is inconclusive to my mind. Sorry I need more facts before I go with the story some Libtard killed a dog, though it is very plausible especially in the land of Cheeseheads right now. Is there a police blotter we can find it on?

Posted by: San Antonio Rose at March 28, 2012 07:17 AM (rtvsq)

98 Aww, Greggie got repressed. NOW YOU SEE THE VIOLENCE INHERENT IN THE SYSTEM

Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at March 28, 2012 07:18 AM (QTHTd)

99 Totally not Greg though I have the same IP address and the same stupid, pathetic email. Do you know I actually use a half-assed villian from a GAMERA movie as my email? Yeah, those movies, the one with the space turtle. Guess which particularly stupid monster I picked from that, a line of films that made Godzilla flicks look dignified.

Posted by: SECRET GUY WHO IS TOTALLY NOT GREG at March 28, 2012 07:20 AM (pNjSx)

100 is there a police blotter we can find it on? Posted by: San Antonio Rose at March 28, 2012 11:17 AM



Re: the puppy story - I'm not seeing it on the usual Wisconsin conservative sites I follow.  I'll listen to Mark Belling's show later this afternoon and see if he mentions it.  He stays on top of these things pretty well.



Posted by: mama winger at March 28, 2012 07:22 AM (P6QsQ)

101 We're attending the International Security Conference in Vegas with the guys who took down the crazy pilot yesterday.  I hear they're minor celebrities here. 

Our flight out was without incident, except as per usual, I was seated next to a crazy person (not D'oh).  Guy introduced himself as "Memphis" and proceeded to talk to himself as we pulled away from the gate and took off.

Sounded exactly like Billy Bob Thornton in Slingblade.  "We'll, we're gettin' ready to take off.  Mmmpf.  Just think.  We're ridin' on 360,000 movin' parts.  grunt.  Here we go.  250 miles per hour.  Yessir.  *weird noises*"

Sigh.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 28, 2012 07:23 AM (PJ+vx)

102 No info on if puppy was killed because of politics but there is now a $10K reward. So whoever did it better not have bragged about it.

"MADISON, Wis. -- The reward to find the person who killed a puppy last month in rural Dane County is growing again.Officials with the Dane County Humane Society said that the reward, called the Animal Protection Fund, is now at $10,000."

http://www.channel3000.com/family/30432219/detail.html

Posted by: Buzzsaw at March 28, 2012 07:23 AM (tf9Ne)

103 Buzzsaw, that's a different puppy.

Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at March 28, 2012 07:24 AM (QTHTd)

104 I love me some guber porn

Posted by: gubers friend at March 28, 2012 07:24 AM (OhYCU)

105 Trends are there because there are fundamental underlying demographics that tend to push results in the same direction.

I wouldn't bet too much on bucking that trend.

In other words, if you are betting on opposite results between the presidential election and senate elections, make sure you get good odds.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at March 28, 2012 07:25 AM (j+DX4)

106

Posted by: Jimmah at March 28, 2012 11:13 AM (UpwlP)

**

I've been on a house hunt, have looked at dozens of houses. About a third are foreclosures. It's sad for me to walk through them, seeing the evidence of a family who had to leave in a hurry, or whose dream just didn't pan out. Although there's a fair representation of homes on the market due to divorce, and that's even sadder, especially when it's obvious little children are affected.

But I do have an offer in on a short sale, we'll see what happens.

 

(referenced homes are in suburbia, not in a marginal neighborhood. Those areas are in a meltdown.)

Posted by: kallisto at March 28, 2012 07:25 AM (jm/9g)

107 wow that was some quick work there! good job whomever!

Posted by: BlackOrchid at March 28, 2012 07:26 AM (SB0V2)

108 A clue. I need to get one. And a better email than gayos.

Posted by: Gayos4U (greg) at March 28, 2012 07:26 AM (tpTYM)

109

So, let's see, Romney has never polled well vs Obama in Florida or Ohio, and somehow by magic, this is going to turn around before November.

Posted by: ramrod at March 28, 2012 11:20 AM (pNjSx)

------------------

I know an anecdote is not necessarily evidence, but ... my 94 year-old grandmother (a life long Democrat that happily voted for FDR all four times) can't wait to cast a vote for whoever the Republican nominee is.  She happens to live in Ohio, too.

->I think anyone can beat Obama or no one can.  It all depends if a majority of the American people want more of what Obama has been peddling for the last four years.

Posted by: Retired Buckeye Cop at March 28, 2012 07:26 AM (M0NzJ)

110

Nice to see the other TX members of the horde know just as little about the "not-Dewhurt, not-Leppert" candidates as I do.

I haven't heard any opposition / attack against Cruz, which says that either there's nothing to criticize because he's awesome, or there's nothing to criticize because there's no track record at all.  Seems like it's the later.

Maybe once the Trayvon stuff settles down, then the local talk-radio guys will put some serious time into these candidates.

 

I think there are some state-level rep races, too. 

Posted by: Farouk Chamois at March 28, 2012 07:27 AM (F26eZ)

111 106 Should have checked date on blog story before posting. The puppy killing I linked was from January.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at March 28, 2012 07:27 AM (tf9Ne)

112 I bet that puppy smells by now.

Posted by: gubers friend at March 28, 2012 07:29 AM (OhYCU)

113 If you live in Texas and consider yourself up on politics and don't know about Cruz that's your own fault. He is the Texas Rubio only maybe better.

Posted by: polynikes at March 28, 2012 07:29 AM (HzcmT)

114 The Senate is nice but I want that bigoted socialist out of the White House.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose finally remembers why he's here at March 28, 2012 07:30 AM (0q2P7)

115 You've all seen this, ya? Some CNN Obama-rump-swab writes how gas prices aren't so bad and people are only mad because they are sheep. http://tinyurl.com/72y67mt But it turns out that this very same Obama rump swab, Steven Hargreaves, had the opposite feelings about gas in 2008. http://tinyurl.com/yoyzpa

Posted by: Soothsayer at March 28, 2012 07:30 AM (jUytm)

116 I haven't heard any opposition / attack against Cruz, which says that either there's nothing to criticize because he's awesome, or there's nothing to criticize because there's no track record at all

He's got Jim DeMint's endorsement- which isn't nothing.  And Rick Perry "speaks" highly of him in Fed Up!  I'll probably end up voting for him over Leppert/Dewhurst simply because he can't be any worse than them (and still be a Republican in Texas).

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at March 28, 2012 07:32 AM (8y9MW)

117 Damn sock.  Farouk you, sock.

Posted by: reason at March 28, 2012 07:32 AM (F26eZ)

118 Allen, Ted Cruz seems to be the best of the lot.  He did argue and win the Heller case, and also won the Medellin vs Texas case.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at March 28, 2012 07:32 AM (qx7YW)

119 If you live in Texas and consider yourself up on politics and don't know about Cruz that's your own fault. He is the Texas Rubio only maybe better.

That would be former State Legislator Marco Rubio?  Who, you know, had a voting record?

I don't know about Cruz because there's nothing to know.  He has no legislative record, and his political position (Solicitor General) was one in which he was a (high profile, highly competent) worker-bee.  The Gov. and/or AG gave him his marching orders and he followed them.

You'll excuse me if I (who engage in argumentation fairly often) am not persuaded that he actually believes what he says, just because he was getting paid to say it.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at March 28, 2012 07:34 AM (8y9MW)

120 Allen, Ted Cruz seems to be the best of the lot. He did argue and win the Heller case, and also won the Medellin vs Texas case.

Yeah, and he's got my (tentative, at least) support.  But he's still a lawyer, and I don't like electing people to a 6 year term who have no legislative/voting record that I can use to examine their beliefs.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at March 28, 2012 07:36 AM (8y9MW)

121 16 Greetings from Vegas, ya'll.


Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 28, 2012 10:25 AM (PJ+vx)

................................

how yall doing out there?   dont take any woodin nickels........

Posted by: Racefan at March 28, 2012 07:37 AM (phhAi)

122 >>Up until the last election, the House has never changed hands without the Senate also changing.

1858, 1874, 1882, 1888, 1890, 1910, 1916, 1930....

Admittedly, there were actual regional third-party candidates in the 19th century.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at March 28, 2012 07:37 AM (ZKzrr)

123

I live in TX, and consider myself disappointingly lacking in my "up-ness" on state-level politics.  I and the missus have been getting our kicks at the city-level for the last couple years.

Posted by: reason at March 28, 2012 07:37 AM (q/kmn)

124 Lottery up to (pre-tax) half a billion. Meanwhile the feds are spending that amount every ten minutes.

Posted by: Jimmah at March 28, 2012 07:38 AM (UpwlP)

125 OT but this is the guy who told us at a healthcare symposium last month that Obamacare will not be repealed no matter what the SCOTUS does.

http://tinyurl.com/cezls58

These are the insider assholes who run DC.

Posted by: Hedgehog at March 28, 2012 07:38 AM (3jGS1)

126 We are getting Mike Pence as our new Governor. ; )

Posted by: Jumbo Jogging Shrimp at March 28, 2012 07:41 AM (DGIjM)

127 Ha , the lady on FOX pushing the merits of pink slime.

Posted by: Jimmah at March 28, 2012 07:43 AM (UpwlP)

128 Wilson won in 1916 but lost the house because the states that went to his opponent were the heavily populated ones in the north east and upper Midwest. Also the women did not win the right to vote until 1920.

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at March 28, 2012 07:43 AM (mFxQX)

129 Mitt Romney should be glad to be compared to an Etch A Sketch at this point: On Wednesday Sen. Arlen Specter kicked the bar way up (or rather, down) in the insulting imagery department by comparing the candidate to a "pornographic movie queen." Because he changes positions so often, you see.




So Sphincter is into pron? And who uses the term a pornographic movie queen? I do declare that you look like one of them hussies you see on the moving pictures

Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 28, 2012 07:45 AM (1Jaio)

130 Decorah has a new eagle

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at March 28, 2012 07:46 AM (mFxQX)

131 Live blog from the Supreme Court, Day 3 arguments:

http://on.wsj.com/GZVLI2

Posted by: mama winger at March 28, 2012 07:46 AM (P6QsQ)

132 I didn't know Specter had been elected Senator again

Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at March 28, 2012 07:46 AM (QTHTd)

133 Decorah has a new eagle Posted by: Velvet Ambition at March 28, 2012 11:46 AM


I was watching when it was first spotted this morning! So exciting! Two hatched, one to go.

Posted by: mama winger at March 28, 2012 07:47 AM (P6QsQ)

134 1930....

The Republicans held both houses before and after the election.  I'm going to go check 1916 now but as far as the others, anything before 1913 is a different animal since Senators were not universally elected.

I should have noted that.

Posted by: toby928© at March 28, 2012 07:47 AM (GTbGH)

135
Ha , the lady on FOX pushing the merits of pink slime.

Can you imagine the howls of outrage had the Bush administration approved pink slime?

Posted by: Ed Anger - Certified Kos Kid at March 28, 2012 07:48 AM (7+pP9)

136 Specter, the habitual party switcher, criticized Mitt Romney for changing positions?

Posted by: Soothsayer at March 28, 2012 07:49 AM (jUytm)

137 What's going on in Missouri? How do they have a blue gov? They keep getting redder.

--------

Jay Nixon (D) isnt your typical rabbid lefty progressive.   You could think of him as a Zel Miller / Joe Liberman type of Democrat.  Rurally oriented.  Served hot dogs and burgers at is inauguration. 

Was very very angry at Washington recently because his request for federal assistance for the storms in Branson was denied.   I might consider crossing over and voting for him this go round.

On the other hand, McCaskill, (D) senator from Missouri.... HAS been infected with rabid DC progressive-ism and will be kicked to the curb this fall.

Posted by: fixerupper at March 28, 2012 07:49 AM (C8hzL)

138 And in 1916 wiki, fwiw, says that the Democrats held both houses before and after the election, albeit, with minority party support in the House.

Posted by: toby928© at March 28, 2012 07:51 AM (GTbGH)

139 Is it wrong that this doesn't excite me?  The Red side has put in "just the tip" for so fucking long, I just don't trust them and don't see America getting all that much better with this.

We're just on a slower roll to socialism under R's than we are with D's.

Posted by: © Sponge at March 28, 2012 07:52 AM (UK9cE)

140

Jay Nixon (D) isnt your typical rabbid lefty progressive

 

Then why does he run as a Demo? Personally I will not vote for any fucking Demo unless he/she is a former Demo. But that's just me

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at March 28, 2012 07:53 AM (mFxQX)

141 Here's the order in which I would ever cast a vote for a Democrat: 1. Republican 2. Dead Republican 3. Celebrity Republican 4. Independent 5. Dead Independent 6. Celebrity Republican 7. A Parakeet 8. A Dead Parakeet 9. (just stay home) 10. Democrat

Posted by: Soothsayer at March 28, 2012 07:56 AM (jUytm)

142 Severability argument has concluded.

Posted by: mama winger at March 28, 2012 07:57 AM (P6QsQ)

143 Scalia on severability: My approach is if you take the heart out of it, it's gone.

Posted by: mama winger at March 28, 2012 07:57 AM (P6QsQ)

144 Kennedy argued it may be more extreme to pick & choose parts of law to overturn than to just strike down the whole thing.

Posted by: mama winger at March 28, 2012 07:59 AM (P6QsQ)

145 Kennedy argued it may be more extreme to pick choose parts of law to overturn

Hope Rising.

Posted by: toby928© at March 28, 2012 08:00 AM (GTbGH)

146

This doesn't excite me.

 

You will all die cold and alone in the dark.

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at March 28, 2012 08:06 AM (BatdI)

147 You will all die cold and alone in the dark.

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at March 28, 2012 12:06 PM (BatdI)


I thought that was the plan all along.

Posted by: Blanco Basura at March 28, 2012 08:09 AM (YEelc)

148

I thought that was the plan all along.
<<<

 

Well, yeah. That part does excite me.

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at March 28, 2012 08:12 AM (BatdI)

149 You will all die cold and alone in the dark.

So, not in a fire then.  Good.

Posted by: toby928© at March 28, 2012 08:13 AM (GTbGH)

150

@143

 

Because it pulls in KC and STL city votes who won't vote (R) even if God himself ran on that ticket. In this case though, Nixon gets to run on his storm damage response.  Missouri's kinda wierd actually.  We have to many actual problems (floods, tornados, etc.) for any progressive dem to get very far on his agenda.

Posted by: tsrblke at March 28, 2012 08:16 AM (SYrwI)

151

Quinnapac crosstabs for that Florida Poll:

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 29% 390
Democrat 33% 371
Independent 33% 407
Other/DK/NA 5% 60

Posted by: toby928© at March 28, 2012 08:27 AM (GTbGH)

152 With the other races in Missouri (Senate / President) going so badly against the Dems would that Big Mo (SWIDT) help in the Governors race also? I know nothing about this race not even the name of the incumbent.

Posted by: Have Blue at March 28, 2012 08:46 AM (0dPUM)

153

@155

Not really, again Nixon (Incumb) is not hated and has disaster response going for him.

Posted by: tsrblke at March 28, 2012 10:11 AM (Qzvg0)

154 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at March 28, 2012 10:23 AM (7W3wI)

155

The one and only time I ever voted for a Dem, it was for Jay Nixon when he ran for Atty. General for the first time.  He ran as a fire and brimstone, law and order kind of guy and I was too young to have sufficiently built up my cynicism levels.

The legislature passed a law that state funds couldn't go to Planned Parenthood and the state was sued by the abortionists.  The plaintiffs venue shopped and got a liberal judge in S. StL to go along with their idea and Jay Nixon refused to appeal the ruling, forcing me to pay for abortions with my tax dollars.

I'll die before I vote for another Dem.

Posted by: someone at March 28, 2012 12:05 PM (uDAyD)

156 "Is Rossi going to finally win after 4 tries?"

Rob McKenna - the state AG - is running against former Congressman Jay Inslee.  To say the Ds aren't happy with Inslee would be an understatement.  They cleared the deck, no primary and now they're stuck with him.

The ruling on Obamacare will play directly into the race as McKenna - over the objections of Gregoire and every other Democrat in the state - joined the Florida lawsuit.

Whether Obama wins or not won't have any effect on us out here.  Republicans will turn out to vote in the governor's race.  We haven't had an R governor since 1984, and we can taste it this time.

It's Rob's race to lose, and I'd be very surprised if he does.

Posted by: Bea Arthur's Dick at March 28, 2012 03:32 PM (dM1NM)

157

If your officer's dead and the sergeants look white,
Remember it's ruin to run from a fight:
So take open order, lie down, and sit tight,
         And wait for supports like a soldier.
         Wait, wait, wait like a soldier . . .

When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
         An' go to your Gawd like a soldier.
         Go, go, go like a soldier,
         Go, go, go like a soldier,
         Go, go, go like a soldier,
         So-oldier of the Queen!


 

Posted by: Hydrocarbon Liberation Front at March 29, 2012 09:19 AM (NVu2l)

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