November 05, 2012

My Prediction for Tomorrow
— Ace

Here's the problem I have with the polls.

The problem here is like the Clarence Thomas/Anita Hill thing. I struggled to imagine a scenario in which both people were telling the truth, where the disagreements were just of interpretation.

I couldn't. It was impossible. Someone was lying. It was very frustrating for me, because my first, and second, inclination is to imagine some scenario in which there are simply two versions of the truth, subject to the normal amount of fudging and perspective bias, but no one's flat-out lying.

Or, in the case of polls, simply flat-out wrong.

In this case, I've been trying to reconcile a national vote tie with Obama's persistent lead in Ohio and other swing states, which should in fact mirror the country. Ohio should be more Republican-leaning than the average.

As Brit Hume says, something's wrong here, and we don't know what.

What's wrong here are the huge partisan splits in the Democrats' advantage.

How can Obama be tied with Romney, in CNN's final poll, with Independents going +22 for Romney?

Oh, right: Because, CNN projects, Democrats will enjoy an unheard-of +11 advantage in votes.

I feel odd finally rejecting the state polls, and some national polls (D+11, indeed!) -- giving up on finding some way they could be telling a piece of the truth.

They're just wrong. I'm uncomfortable just saying data is wrong but that's where I come down.

One problem I have, though, is that many conservatives still seem to be making arguments based on numbers from 14 days ago, talking up a big Romney national vote lead. In fact, now, thanks to Obama doing a photo op (man, that guy is good at photo ops!), it's now tied.

Still, the assumptions for this tie are very strange. Apparently 2010 never happened, the country never rose up to reject socialism and failure, and 2008's Democratic plurality grew by leaps and bounds.

Apparently the continue majority support for repeal of ObamaCare somehow managed to increase the Democrats' popularity. Apparently the $6 trillion in new debt Obama signed into existence boosted his party's support.

Apparently presiding over a higher unemployment rate than any president ever re-elected (since FDR) has made the Democratic Party the dominant political force in the country.

Bill Clinton, apparently, had it all backwards. He presided over a furiously growing economy with (for a couple of quarters) a sub-4% unemployment rate but didn't manage to realign the country in the Democrats' favor.

But Barack Obama, by keeping unemployment at the 8% level (higher than the very high unemployment he started his term with) has won the hearts and imaginations of the nation for the Democratic Party.

That Clinton. What an idiot. He tried success. Didn't he know catastrophic failure in nearly every detail was the right approach?

Now, Team Obama explains that a growing, rather than shrinking, Democratic advantage in the electorate is possible because they've signed up 1.8 new voters. That's very wonderful.

Trouble is, a WaPo/ABCNews poll found that Obama had lost 9.1 million of his 2008 voters directly to Romney, with 3% more undecided (and they will probably break 1.5 to Romney, 1 stay home, .5 to Obama).

Now, Obama didn't just lose these voters. They're not just staying home. 9.1 million are flipping to Romney -- that's an 18.2 million net swing. Ten times the size of the new voters Obama brags he's signed up. Plus, using my back of the envelope guess as to the remaining 3% of undecided 2008 Obama voters-- that adds another net +3 to the shift to Romney.

So, in total, on election day, we'll find that of Obama's 2008 voters, there's been a net shift of 21 million to Mitt Romney. 10.5 million subtracted from Obama's column, and 10.5 million added to Team Red's.

But you know -- 1.8 million new voters registered.

So how on earth could the nation now be more Democratic than it was in 2008?

It can't be. And it isn't. I simply cannot believe that the 2010 repudiation never happened, that the parties-at-parity that year has not only reversed itself but rebounded +6, +8, and even +11 in the Democrats' direction.

So I have decided the state polls are simply wrong, and the national polls understate Romney's support by 3-4 points.

@benk84 presented this map in an email string; it turns out it was the same map I had made earlier today.

So here's my prediction: Romney 348, Obama 190.

Some other predictions I saw are fuzzing it, predicting a Romney squeaker by 271-267.

I find that scenario unlikely. If the polls are right, then Obama wins. Romney doesn't somehow squeak a hair's-breadth electoral win if the polls are right.

The only way Romney wins is if the toplines in the polls is wrong for whatever reason -- overweighting young and minority respondents, too few people responding to pollsters at all (now it's around 9-10%), and too many of the people responding to pollsters happy to offer the Socially Preferred answer.

The socially preferred answer is "I'm voting for Obama." After all, voting for Obama in 2008 didn't prove you weren't a racist. In 2008, Obama seemed like a reasonably good candidate (for those without any savvy or history or ideological underpinnings).

No, voting for the catastrophically disastrous Obama 2012 proves, beyond any doubt, that you're not a racist.

Even racists will hire a highly competent black man. But only the most anti-racist people in the world will re-hire the incompetent one, the one who seems to spend the bulk of his time golfing and chatting up Sir Paul McCartney.

So, once you've made that determination, that there's something simply wrong with these 2008 or higher Democratic splits and the toplines are just plain wrong, you have to just look at deeper numbers like Independents, Republican enthusiasm and solidarity, and Democratic defection rate.

As well as Democrats lagging their 2008 early-vote pace, and Republicans boosting their own.

And if you want to talk about ground game, let's talk about ORCA.

And all that forecasts a big Romney win.

Dixville Notch: I completely forgot about Dixville Notch, that New Hampshire sub-hamlet that always votes at 12:01 am on Election Day.

In 2008, Dixville projected Obama the winner, 15 for Obama, 6 for McCain.

This year? 5-5.

Ten Obama voters stayed home. Apparently one McCain voter did too.

(I'm now being told Dixville Notch only has 10 registered voters now. Well, still going from three to one Obama to a tie.)

Wisconsin: I've been thinking about Wisconsin. I think like this:

The Scott Walker recall was effectively a presidential-year turnout mobilization effort on both sides.

Now, Walker's opponent was not the most attractive candidate. Then, Barack Obama's not the most attractive candidate. He has a thing called a record, and it is woeful.

So if Wisconsin delivered a seven point win for a Republican candidate just this past June, why do people think Wisconsin "leans Democratic"?

It is true that some Democrats voted for Walker on the theory that the recall efforts just weren't fair.

Still, if you don't like a candidate, you don't really get into second-order questions like "what's fair?" for that candidate.

So Wisconsin just delivered a huge Republican victory to Walker (and before that, to Supreme Court Justice Prosser), but now, five months later, the state is so Democratic that it won't elect a strong and attractive Republican candidate (with a favorite son as the Veep candidate) over a failed Democratic one?

Of all the polls I don't believe, Wisconsin is the one I don't believe the hardest. This is a state which has gotten used to voting Republican and, I might say, gotten rather good at it.

But they're going to vote for Obama?

I just don't believe it. Honestly, I can see Obama winning Ohio. I have bought into The Narrative on Ohio -- autobailout, Obama's ads killed Romney for six months, blue-collar white males flipping over to the Socialist view of the world, etc.

But Wisconsin? If Ohio has been trending Democratic, certainly Wisconsin has been trending Republican.

What was Walker's plan in Wisconsin, by the way? Cut spending, balance the budget, reform the processes by which so much money goes out the door to schools and such, cut taxes.

And... it's working.

But they're going to look at Romney and Ryan and say, "Well, sure, we like when Walker does that on the state level, but on a national level, that's just crazy"?

I don't see it.

Oh, and in 2000, with the Democrats running on Clinton's record (albeit with Clinton's sex scandals), the state barely went Gore, and was only called for Gore days after the election.

But now they're like, "Oh yeah, we gots to have us more Obama"?

Posted by: Ace at 07:58 PM | Comments (423)
Post contains 1469 words, total size 9 kb.

1

I pray you are right, Ace.

Posted by: Foul Harold at November 05, 2012 08:00 PM (Uj/f4)

2 Top 10 again! WOOOOOOOOOO! Ace is correct

Posted by: trump at November 05, 2012 08:02 PM (F8Lnm)

3 Foul Harold, I do too.

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 08:02 PM (LCRYB)

4 The polls are closed in Dixville Notch. They should be counting the ballots now.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 08:03 PM (LXKJo)

5 Boo yeah! Statistical Analysis: Cuyahoga Early Vote Numbers Show Romney Cutting Obama Lead in ENTIRE STATE by 26% http://bit.ly/PzqyFk

Posted by: Matthew at November 05, 2012 08:03 PM (NFKDG)

6 But Ace, the real question is why are the polls so intent upon showing Obama with a lead? Are the Democrats and their useful idiots laying the groundwork to argue that the Repubs stole the election, that the Romney Presidency is a sham obtained by supression of minority vote? Laying the groundwork to defend their complete unwillingness to work with Romney's efforts to fix things? The polls know what they're doing. Why are they doing it?

Posted by: MoeRon at November 05, 2012 08:04 PM (EYYCx)

7 my map is identical to Ace but I also have Romney taking Oregon If Minnesota goes red, so will Oregon

Posted by: Jose/ningrim at November 05, 2012 08:04 PM (srIqv)

8 I have an equal quantity of Depends and pudding cups. Covering all the bases.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Barry will filch all the R keys at November 05, 2012 08:05 PM (AZGON)

9 "Are the Democrats and their useful idiots laying the groundwork to argue that the Repubs stole the election" That's exactly what they're doing.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 08:05 PM (LXKJo)

10 I'm with Michael Barone - ahead of him actually. 315 EV for Romney. And, Bloomberg is toast.

Posted by: Radar at November 05, 2012 08:05 PM (Z64pB)

11 Ace--

I've felt the same way for about the last three weeks.  I have easily been the most optimistic moron, especially in my circle of influence.

I've been quietly saying 'blowout' and 'landslide' ever since the first debate.  I can give my country a mulligan for voting this turd into the office the first time, but while America sometimes makes huge mistakes, it rarely makes the same one twice.

I think we will all be pleasantly rewarded for the last four years, in just a short 24 hours from now.

Rest easy friends, we've got this.  America won't let us down.

Posted by: Double Wide at November 05, 2012 08:06 PM (J8jzK)

12 Wow. Hope to God you are correct, Ace. The only plausible explanation for the state/national split is that Obama has been running the world's best targeted campaign. There are rumors he's spent tons on anti-Mormon propaganda in evangelical parts of Ohio for instance. In that scenario somehow Ohio is seeing a vastly different media environment than the rest of the country. We'll know soon enough.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at November 05, 2012 08:07 PM (ZPrif)

13 This is where I get a really funny feeling. The anticipation of our winning gives me goosebumps  but the other alternative makes me sick.

Posted by: harleycowboy at November 05, 2012 08:07 PM (+9AX9)

14 Slightly OT, but has Ace simply given up fapping to pron or has he given up fapping altogether?

Posted by: Jim at November 05, 2012 08:07 PM (g1t2K)

15 Any info on the midnight voting in NH?

Posted by: Nate at November 05, 2012 08:07 PM (BBlzg)

16 348?

Posted by: runner at November 05, 2012 08:07 PM (WR5xI)

17 Twenty-four hours. Good God Ace, I hope you're right.

Posted by: Secundus at November 05, 2012 08:07 PM (boQMP)

18 Dixville: 5 R 5 O

Posted by: Jaydee at November 05, 2012 08:07 PM (E5DLT)

19 Dicksville Notch results in 5/5 tie.

Posted by: Up with people at November 05, 2012 08:08 PM (kzFo5)

20 Dixville tied 5-5. But the Rs down ballot won easily. So someone voted for Bass, the Gov candidate and Obana

Posted by: Doc at November 05, 2012 08:08 PM (uJjuS)

21 Isn't thier another town in NH voting also?

Posted by: Paul at November 05, 2012 08:09 PM (xwVUV)

22

Slightly OT, but has Ace simply given up fapping to pron or has he given up fapping altogether?

 

He's doing a Fap-Fast for now.  After the election is over (regardless of who wins), he will be back to fapping.  For now, he is praying and "fasting".

Posted by: runningrn at November 05, 2012 08:09 PM (Uw091)

23
Close. It will actually be:

Romney - 309 with 52% of the vote
Obama - 229 with 45%

Senate 50/50 split




Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 05, 2012 08:10 PM (kdS6q)

24 Of course Ace is right... After all his blog is a "very smart military blog"... ergo, Ace must be very smart himself. ~ I hope I typed that just like Ace requested~

Posted by: Stormy's stocked up with chocolate pudding! at November 05, 2012 08:10 PM (1f2Z2)

25 Every time I see those people in Dixville Notch casting their votes, it reminds me of the Red Green show...

Posted by: Double Wide at November 05, 2012 08:10 PM (J8jzK)

26 To continue- Gallup, Pew and Ras are consistent on one point: the electorate is at worst basically even this year. Any poll that weights with more than a D+3 is trash. Plain and simple. Lets take another set of assumptions: 1) Romney will win "red" states 2) Romney is close/tied in traditional blue states. Both of these are established facts that I think we all can stipulate. 3) Swing states are basically a reflection of the general mood of the nation, as opposed to solid blue (CA) or solid Red (TX). So with these 3 FACTS....how do people come out with 4) Romney loses most of the swing states? Just a show of plain logic shows Romney winning enough swing states to be Pres. Or lets' make it simple: Deep blue states are in play. That's all you need to know. Romney wins this if we TURN OUT AND VOTE. TURN OUT AND VOTE! TURN OUT AND VOTE! TURN OUT AND VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! VOTE FOR ROMNEY! VOTE FOR REVENGE! VOTE FOR REVENGE FOR OUR GRANDKIDS SADDLED WITH DEBT! VOTE FOR REVENGE FOR OUR PEOPLE ABANDONED IN BENGHAZI! VOTE FOR REVENGE FOR THE SH*TTY WAY THIS SCOAMF HAS TREATED THIS COUNTRY AT EVERY TURN! VOTE! VOTE! VOTE THIS BASTICH OUT! VOTE FOR HOUSE AND SENATE TO GIVE MITT PEOPLE HE CAN WORK WITH TO REPEAL OBAMACARE! VOTE! VOTE! VOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTEEEE! VOTE TO GIVE SCOAMF THE BIG EFF YOU HE DESERVES BUT HAS NEVER GOTTEN IN HIS WORTHLESS EXCUSE OF A LIFE.

Posted by: trump at November 05, 2012 08:10 PM (F8Lnm)

27 Last time Hicksville Crotch went 15-6 for O, so good news?

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 08:11 PM (LXKJo)

28 How many dead people vote in Dixville Notch?

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Barry will filch all the R keys at November 05, 2012 08:11 PM (AZGON)

29 If Obama's leading, where's the energy? Why are his rallies pulling fewer people than McCain in '08?

Posted by: Secundus at November 05, 2012 08:11 PM (boQMP)

30 After seeing this prediction I have a strange ache. An ache that only dipping will help. Also morons, #AOSHQ irc chat! http://webchat.freenode.net/

Posted by: Cheesehead Bill (Ryan District!) at November 05, 2012 08:11 PM (Uwli4)

31 Better question is what happened to the other 11 voters from 2008 in Dixville?

Posted by: Doc at November 05, 2012 08:11 PM (RkH4v)

32 On Revolution tonight they made an Ewok reference. The Q is everywhere it seems.

Posted by: Golan Globus at November 05, 2012 08:11 PM (/1U3u)

33 I live in Holmes county OH. For the first time I have seen political signs in Amish and old order Mennonites yards, they were for Romney. Mormon, not scary, killing babies Amoral. I hope lots of them vote.

Posted by: Mike at November 05, 2012 08:12 PM (K/rAh)

34 Dixville votes 5-5.  In 2008, Dixville went 15-6 for Obama.  Did 10 of his voters just stay home? 

Posted by: aj4coco at November 05, 2012 08:12 PM (0BaQU)

35 The old bastard who started the midnight voting tradition died a while back at age 102. I don't know what happened to the others. Wikipedia says the ski resort is closed for renovations, so that might account for it.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 08:13 PM (LXKJo)

36 "10 I'm with Michael Barone - ahead of him actually. 315 EV for Romney. And, Bloomberg is toast." ====== Radar, I think you've nailed it"

Posted by: Nickie Goomba at November 05, 2012 08:13 PM (ex+u8)

37 Does Dixville Notch have an Overlook Hotel?

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Barry will filch all the R keys at November 05, 2012 08:14 PM (AZGON)

38 And I'd like to give trump's exhortation a hearty thumbs up.

Posted by: Secundus at November 05, 2012 08:14 PM (boQMP)

39 Dicksville had 23 voters the last time and it was a landslide for Barky. Looks like more than half are either sitting this one out or died of Funemployment.

Posted by: Up with people at November 05, 2012 08:14 PM (kzFo5)

40 Correction: the old bastard died in 2001, so he was already gone last time. I'm betting on the ski resort closure.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 08:14 PM (LXKJo)

41 They had a distinct reduction in population. Why?

I also heard there was some construction going on and they had to move the polls? Where are the other registered voters?

so they haven't predicted every election but close so what they're predicting now is a tie?

that's not good.

Posted by: Jcw46 at November 05, 2012 08:15 PM (SP4jC)

42

Obama's final campaign event with Stringsteen drew 18,000. In 04 Kerry and Springsteen drew 80,000 at Kerry's last event.

 

 

That Springsteen fellow has really lost his following.

Posted by: Meremortal at November 05, 2012 08:15 PM (1Y+hH)

43 Exact argument I made to my Eeyore husband last night.

Posted by: Lauren at November 05, 2012 08:15 PM (wsGWu)

44 Maybe it'll inspire attendance.

Posted by: Jcw46 at November 05, 2012 08:15 PM (SP4jC)

45 Welcome to the party!

We're so glad you came!

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 08:15 PM (piMMO)

46 I've been sick to my stomach all night just thinking about tomorrow.  So tense!  Hard to stay upbeat when my family are all eeyores.  Real hard, man.

Posted by: tdpwells at November 05, 2012 08:16 PM (7vA7k)

47 "so they haven't predicted every election but close " They're good at predicting the Republican primary, not the general election (or the Dem primary, for that matter).

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 08:16 PM (LXKJo)

48
Senate 50/50 split
That's not good. We need a majority in the Senate.

Posted by: harleycowboy at November 05, 2012 08:16 PM (+9AX9)

49

"So here's my prediction: Romney 348, Obama 190."



 

I'll be in my bunk.

Posted by: Max Entropy at November 05, 2012 08:16 PM (NwTXA)

50 Ace , I am praying hard for a Great Romney and Ryan Victory !!!!!!! My rosary is getting quite a work out !!!!!!! God Bless The Horde !!!!!!!

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at November 05, 2012 08:16 PM (Fk4oI)

51 Maybe the others had a revolt over voting at 12 AM and being a spectacle for the media, so they created their own town?

Posted by: Doc at November 05, 2012 08:16 PM (RkH4v)

52 "So, once you've made that determination, that there's something simply wrong with these 2008 or higher Democratic splits"

They've been doing one of two things:

1.  Either they have a ridiculous Dem sample (D+11, for example) or

2.  They show Obama getting greater support from Republicans in 2012 than he got in 2008.

PPP does both but generally not in the same poll.  Their CT poll, for example, showed Obama getting more votes from Republicans in 2012 than exit polling showed that he got in 2008.  Crossovers are very important because each point of crossover is two points of margin (-1 point for Romney and +1 support for Obama) so you can have 4 points of crossover and get 8 points of margin.  PPP also tends to over sample minority voters.  Their Oregon poll did that.  But crossover voters are your big bang for the buck.  So in the polls with the big D+ samples, you will see both candidates getting most of their own base (Romney got 99% of Republicans in the CNN D+11 poll).  In the polls with low D+ samples, you will see Obama getting more votes from Republicans than the Republican gets Democrats.

 

Posted by: crosspatch at November 05, 2012 08:16 PM (ZbLJZ)

53 43 Exact argument I made to my Eeyore husband last night.

Posted by: Lauren at November 06, 2012 12:15 AM (wsGWu)


Want to give it a go with my family?  I'm all argued out.

Posted by: tdpwells at November 05, 2012 08:16 PM (7vA7k)

54 Maybe I've just got the itch, but Ann Coulter actually looks hittable on Hannity right now...

Posted by: Double Wide at November 05, 2012 08:16 PM (J8jzK)

55 22 - He's doing a Fap-Fast for now. After the election is over (regardless of who wins), he will be back to fapping. For now, he is praying and "fasting".

WHOA! On Wednesday Ace is gonna look he just finished a knife fight with one of those androids from Prometheus.

Posted by: Jim at November 05, 2012 08:16 PM (g1t2K)

56 Has there been a President who has managed to sweep in with both houses of Congress and lose them PLUS the White House in a single term?

Carter weeps.  "I'm not the worst!  At long last, I'm not the worst anymore."

Posted by: Filly at November 05, 2012 08:17 PM (lgXUp)

57 >>>lightly OT, but has Ace simply given up fapping to pron or has he given up fapping altogether? Like an alcoholic, you have good days, and bad days. One day at a time, you know.

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 08:17 PM (LCRYB)

58 How will the media report Dicksville? "Romney gets fewer Dicksville votes than McCain."

Posted by: Secundus at November 05, 2012 08:17 PM (boQMP)

59 I'm still nervous. I wish I could sleep the next few days away (after I vote, of course.)

Posted by: JustLikeDavidHasselhoff at November 05, 2012 08:17 PM (71iUa)

60 Is this a movie review?

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 08:17 PM (NIZHJ)

61
A few other predictions via The Washpost:

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Obama 303, Romney 235
Ezra Klein, The Washington Post: Obama 290, Romney 248
Markos Moulitsas: Obama 332, Romney 206
Jim Cramer, CNBC: Obama 440, Romney 98


George Will, The Washington Post: Romney 321, Obama 217
Dean Chambers, UnskewedPolls.com: Romney 311, Obama 227


Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 05, 2012 08:17 PM (kdS6q)

62 Rasmussen poll is sticking in my craw.

Posted by: tdpwells at November 05, 2012 08:17 PM (7vA7k)

63 We  won  in  Dicksinaknot!  Revenge  rally!   Let's  keep  it  goin'  folks! 

Posted by: Joe Biden at November 05, 2012 08:18 PM (ypzqs)

64 Ace - i do so pray you are correct. I can see an R big win easier than an O big win. But I fear the Chicago machine is not playing honorably and the shenanigans will make it look like a win. A big R win will go along way to start the healing this country desperately needs. The one thing I have learned about Mitt Romney through this process. He is a good and honorable man. If I had a problem in the middle of the night I would call Mitt. So I, like many others are comfortable with him in that chair. I pray he gets there.

Posted by: RkinRoanoke at November 05, 2012 08:18 PM (pxur/)

65 Welcome to the side of sanity Ace. The polls have been wrong all along. The Obama team has their shit together when it comes to messaging. It is all they have. We have spend 5+ years bitching about the lies they tell and how the MSM never calls them on it. They have the direct numbers to the major talking heads in the MSM, and use those numbers every time a bad story comes out against "teh one". They are vicious in attaching any lefty in the MSM for "going off message". This is why they attack Fox so much not because Fox reports actual, you know news. But because Fox told them to pound sand when they "suggested" Fox should tow the party line like all the other cool kids. The progressives really only have messaging, cute slogans and catchy chants. It is their bread and butter and it works. Conservatives NEED to improve on this starting tomorrow or over half the country will hate Romney by February 2012. Again the polls are bunk and Romney will have 300+ EV tomorrow night. Then the fun really starts. Can't wait to be called racist tomorrow. It should be fun.

Posted by: squidgrunt at November 05, 2012 08:18 PM (rfFk0)

66 Pray for the senate too. We need both to kill Obamacare.

Posted by: Bon Qui Qui at November 05, 2012 08:18 PM (2JGAg)

67 54 Maybe I've just got the itch, but Ann Coulter actually looks hittable on Hannity right now...

Posted by: Double Wide at November 06, 2012 12:16 AM (J8jzK)


She needs to lay off the bleach a bit.  Getting too harsh for her coloring.

Posted by: tdpwells at November 05, 2012 08:19 PM (7vA7k)

68 Yeah, as so often, I agree with Ace, but just less so.

The polls could be wrong, but "I'm uncomfortable just saying data is wrong"--ESPECIALLY when the data is data I obviously would like to dismiss.

A rule Pelle Nilsson told me--probably didn't originate with him, but Ace would know that name--has served me well on the Internet: "Be most skeptical of that which you wish to believe."

And so, as much as I would like to think big Romney win, I come down thinking it's going to be a barn burner and that we will have a nervous day ahead of us.

We know these ass hats are biased, but we also know we're biased. We also know they spin and cheat. We also know the Romney folks are releasing internals that show--although results more favorable to us than other polls--very tight races in the critical states.

I believe we can win a glorious, pudding-laden victory. But I do not think it is assured.

And that will make it the sweeter if by our efforts it is achieved.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at November 05, 2012 08:19 PM (WbGW2)

69 You had me until 348, ace.
MN?  NV?   I don't think so.    I'm thinking R gets 285.
Youre post was really good until I saw that prediction.    348?    Really?


Posted by: some guy at November 05, 2012 08:19 PM (z7rjz)

70

OK, sfter the Dixville Notch thingie, I officially call the election for Mitt Romney

My complex computer model is absolutely infallible.

Posted by: TexasJew at November 05, 2012 08:19 PM (6/bOE)

71 When the hell is Hatch's Location coming in?

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 08:20 PM (r2PLg)

72 The problem here is like the Clarence Thomas/Anita Hill thing

Pennsylvania is the pubic hair on the coke can that is America.

Posted by: wooga at November 05, 2012 08:20 PM (iEQi5)

73 How can you forget about The Notch?

Posted by: garrett at November 05, 2012 08:20 PM (YfOMh)

74 Senate 50/50 split That's not good. We need a majority in the Senate. ---- It won't happen because republicans are born pussies, but Ryan could run the Senate. President of the Senate means YOU run the Seanate no matter who the majority party is. On day one he could kick Ried to the curb and run the calendar even if the senate was 100% dem.

Posted by: Up with people at November 05, 2012 08:21 PM (kzFo5)

75 Go, Ace.

Posted by: edj at November 05, 2012 08:21 PM (+QKfp)

76 Oops--Hart's Location. yoicks

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 08:21 PM (r2PLg)

77 >>>he polls could be wrong, but "I'm uncomfortable just saying data is wrong"--ESPECIALLY when the data is data I obviously would like to dismiss. >>>A rule Pelle Nilsson told me--probably didn't originate with him, but Ace would know that name--has served me well on the Internet: "Be most skeptical of that which you wish to believe." Yes, I generally employ this rule myself, but I cannot see how Obama wins while losing Independents by such margins. Add into that increased Republican crawl-over-glass enthusiasm and Democratic defections + stayhomes, and he loses, big. I don't feel I'm just discarding polls I don't like because i am in fact seizing upon parts of them -- like the Independent advantage. I just do not see how this nation went from parity in 2010 to D + 9 in just two years, two years in which Obama's lone accomplishment was not Pulling a Benghazi on OBL.

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 08:21 PM (LCRYB)

78 Maybe I've just got the itch, but Ann Coulter actually looks hittable on Hannity right now... Posted by: Double Wide at November 06, 2012 12:16 AM Damn - how drunk ARE you?

Posted by: RkinRoanoke at November 05, 2012 08:21 PM (pxur/)

79 Yeah, Millard Fillmore and James Buchanan have been doing shots and high fiving each other in the afterlife. "We're not the worst anymore!"

Posted by: Secundus at November 05, 2012 08:21 PM (boQMP)

80 Sleep on it.

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 08:21 PM (NIZHJ)

81 @75 I just got premature pudding. I forgot this part: it won't happen because republicans are born pussies, but Ryan could run the Senate. President of the Senate means YOU run the Seanate no matter who the majority party is. On day one he could kick Ried to the curb and run the calendar even if the senate was 100% dem.

Posted by: squidgrunt at November 05, 2012 08:22 PM (rfFk0)

82 My complex computer model is absolutely infallible. Dixville Notch is going to change its name to Hockey Stick.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Barry will filch all the R keys at November 05, 2012 08:22 PM (AZGON)

83 "Ten Obama voters stayed home."

That'll do it.

Posted by: forest at November 05, 2012 08:22 PM (7RBBe)

84 34 Dixville votes 5-5. In 2008, Dixville went 15-6 for Obama. Did 10 of his voters just stay home?
--- Perhaps they lacked the required ID?

Posted by: Ed Varney at November 05, 2012 08:23 PM (kzejo)

85 When 60% of the people hate obamcare, and the same amount say that the economy is in the shitter, there is no way obama wins.

Posted by: Courtesy Flush at November 05, 2012 08:23 PM (tkbF8)

86 "Dixville Notch: I completely forgot about Dixville Notch, that New Hampshire sub-hamlet that always votes at 12:01 am on Election Day. In 2008, Dixville projected Obama the winner, 15 for Obama, 6 for McCain. This year? 5-5. Ten Obama voters stayed home. Apparently one McCain voter did too." Did some searching and Dixville apparently only has 10 registered voters. Maybe half of Dixville moved away after seeing their looney neighbors overwhelmingly vote for Obama.

Posted by: NotCoach at November 05, 2012 08:23 PM (jU7Af)

87 omg I am LAME! I found their website-- http://www.hartslocation.com/ They have a billboard up--and the vote is still blank.

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 08:24 PM (r2PLg)

88 Not too drunk.  Yet.  Tomorrow, however, I'm gonna go full-on college freshman..

Posted by: Double Wide at November 05, 2012 08:24 PM (J8jzK)

89 I made calls today at the Washington county, Oregon GOP phone bank today.  I'll be doing the same tomorrow and then pick up my beautiful wife and party at the Washington county elections results party.  I can't wait to be around like minded people and celebrating a massive victory.  I predict R/R over 300.

Posted by: Hamilton Burger at November 05, 2012 08:24 PM (kyFvp)

90

Ace,

 

You are correct.  As I've said before, people out here in the Midwest are Pissed Off.  And we do not yell and scream.  We get real quiet and resolute.  We do not talk politics with people we do not know.  We do not answer polls.  We saw what happened to Joe the Plumber, Sarah Palin, and all the "RAAAAACIST People" in the health care debates. 

 

We say things like, "They both are idiots."  "I'll be glad when the commercials stop." 

 

But we will vote tomorrow.  And no one knows how many of us there are.  The MSM will be shocked.  Just like 1980 and 1994. 

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at November 05, 2012 08:24 PM (zLp5I)

91 My “official” prediction for the 2012 election are below. I’ve typically not been a “Pollyanna” but I’m going to go out on a not-too-pessimistic prediction. President. Romney win with 296 EV, with Obama getting only 242. Romney will win all the McCain states, and easily add back Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia. I feel that Ohio and Colorado will go Romney, but by narrower margins than the other states. That is enough to win. I think he’ll also add New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Iowa by a hare. I’m also going to throw in the wild card of ME-2 (Maine is one of two states to split their electoral votes: one per district, and two for the statewide vote). And now, for everything else. In the U.S. Senate, the Republicans repeatedly shot themselves in the foot. They ought to have been on the verge of their largest number of Senators since the Harding administration. They will, however, still gain seats since they had so few to screw-up over. The Republicans will pick-up, with decreasing ease, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin, and Virginia. The Republicans will lose Maine to an “independent” and also very narrowly Massachusetts. The Democrats will also change Connecticut from Democrat caucusing Independent to a Democrat, though by a narrow margin. If it turns out that there is a Romney landslide, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Ohio, Michigan, and Missouri might be in play. The House of Representatives will stay firmly in Republican hands, with the Republicans making a small net gain of less than ten seats. I am making the prediction that both Washington and Maine will vote in Gay Marriage, but Maryland will very narrowly defeat it (for now). And now my predictions for Nevada. Obama will win the state, but by less than half of what he did before. My reasoning it thus: The Democrats early voting lead in raw numbers is about 49K statewide, which is about 7% of the early votes (and early absentee ballots collected/counted by Saturday morning). I believe that the Republicans will do much better on election day, and if it follows the voting trend of 2008, this will shrink to about 5% of the vote. I believe that Romney will get more Democrat votes than Obama will of Republicans, though independents will be more evenly split, with only a slight edge for Romney due to American Independent Voters NOT voting for Obama. Throwing in the “None of the Above” option, and a 3-4% win is likely. This is assuming that there will be not magnificent ground game from the Republicans, since that has not been evident so far. The biggest drag on the Republicans in the Silver State, and what has most likely cost Romney the state, is the current status of the Civil War going on in the Republican party. The state and Clark County GOP have acted almost as a net negative for Republicans to the point where Romney, Heller, &c. had to set-up a shadow party (i.e. Team Nevada), just to compete. This brings us to the Senate race. Sen. Heller has usually been polling 3-6% ahead of Romney. As such, I am predicting a very narrow with for Heller over Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consciousness). In the house races, Former Rep. Titus is a cinch for the heavy Democrat District NV01, just as Rep. Amodai is a cinch for NV01. Rep. Heck will win re-election in NV03 by a near double digit margin. This brings us to NV04. It is a very Democrat district comprising of North Las Vegas for most of the population, and a plethora of rural counties to bring up the population to its necessary representation. NV04 was supposed to be an easy district for outgoing state Sen. Horsford. However, Danny Tarkanian has been doing very well here, with an appeal both to Republicans in the rural counties, as well as in the inner city due to his connection with both the community, and his famous father. However, Tarkanian will fall short by about 4%. Horsford will most likely win all subsequent elections until the next redistricting. I am also predicting no net change for the Nevada state Senate. Republicans should win SD in Washoe County where Sen. Brower will defeat Leslie, and SD18 in north-west Clark County where Hammond will defeat Ross. The three other state senate seats are SD5 and SD6 (currently held by Democrats), and SD9 (which the Republicans won in 2010 before redistricting, but is up do to a vacancy). I’m going to say that the Democrats pick-up SD9, but lose either SD5 or SD6, for no net change, and a one seat lead for the Democrats in the state Senate. However, those last three state Senate seats could go either way, and the Republicans only need two to clinch a majority in the state Senate. In the assembly, I am predicting no overall change (i.e. 24-16 Democrat lead). These are just my best guesstimations, and I could easily be wrong. More: http://politicalhat.com/?p=497

Posted by: The Political Hat at November 05, 2012 08:24 PM (sZTYJ)

92 > That Springsteen fellow has really lost his following.

He's lost me.

So has Christie.

I understand...New Jersey's what's important to him.

Fine. But then he's got to understand what's important to me.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at November 05, 2012 08:24 PM (WbGW2)

93 That must be the voter suppression the dhimmis are talking about.

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 08:24 PM (NIZHJ)

94 Damn it people-- ALL that matters now is-- Hart's Location. /hah

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 08:24 PM (r2PLg)

95 What's the other NH town voting? I know thier was 2. lol

Posted by: Paul at November 05, 2012 08:24 PM (xwVUV)

96 But Dick Morris said the same thing.

How can both Ace and Dick Morris be correct?

They can't. One of them has to be wrong.

Which can only mean that Rosanne Barr and Cindy Sheehan get the whole banana.

Posted by: Clutch Cargo at November 05, 2012 08:25 PM (Qxdfp)

97

#13:  "The only plausible explanation for the state/national split is that Obama has been running the world's best targeted campaign. There are rumors he's spent tons on anti-Mormon propaganda in evangelical parts of Ohio for instance. In that scenario somehow Ohio is seeing a vastly different media environment than the rest of the country."

 

Heck, Obama didn't even need to go anti-Mormon when one of the high mucky mucks in Baptist ministries (forgot his name but read a long article about him and his feelings and teachings), said that no way would he endorse a Mormon POTUS because it would give "legitimacy to a cult." 

What he was really thinking is that Mormons are his greatest competition in evangelical conversions, I think. 

When asked if why he had never spoken out against other Mormons in high office, like Harry Reid, he said, "That's different," that they aren't high enough profile to cause any problems.

Bigot.  Idiot.

I know Ralph Reed was trying to turn evangelicals and so was Billy Graham.  They hope to turn them out, but until the ballots are cast, we won't know and they are sorely needed in VA and Ohio.

I have some evangelical friends here in CA, but I guess they are of a different kind.  They are indeed very Bible focused but they only care that Mitt Romney is a God-fearing man and are big supporters. 

Posted by: gayle in California at November 05, 2012 08:25 PM (wgmUB)

98

Jim Cramer, CNBC: Obama 440, Romney 98

 

What?   Is  he thinking he'll even lose Texas?  Romney's got the entire south locked-up. 

Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 05, 2012 08:25 PM (nvKct)

99 Great post, Ace!

Posted by: Kensington at November 05, 2012 08:25 PM (uaEZS)

100 That map has so much ginger

Posted by: Buzzsaw90 at November 05, 2012 08:25 PM (kzejo)

101 Seriously, do I get the wine I want to celebrate with, or does that jinx it? I'm terrified that if I get the wine I'll jinx it. 

And no, I can't just drink it to make myself feel better if in 24 hours we've learned we're facing 4 more years of Prince Autopen.  I get nauseated when upset.

Posted by: Filly at November 05, 2012 08:25 PM (lgXUp)

102

 

 

Ace is the anti-Cramer!!!

Posted by: Meremortal at November 05, 2012 08:26 PM (1Y+hH)

103 89Not too drunk. Yet. Tomorrow, however, I'm gonna go full-on college freshman..
Be sure to chain yourself to a pole and give somebody else the key.

Posted by: harleycowboy at November 05, 2012 08:26 PM (+9AX9)

104 Turning in. I will be voting--and calling--for Romney tomorrow.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at November 05, 2012 08:27 PM (WbGW2)

105 From your keyboard to god's ears, Ace.

And may I say, from the bottom of my heart, thank you to you and the entire crew (and the commenters, Breitbart's favorite part!) at Ace of Spades. This blog has been the single most important political blog for me, through this entire campaign (primary & general) season. Even when I (sometimes strongly) disagree(d) with you or your cobloggers.

No matter what happens tomorrow: thank you, thank you, thank you.

Posted by: lael at November 05, 2012 08:27 PM (tUcg9)

106 The Obama campaign knows they are about to suffer a tremendous blow. Imagine the horror in discovering that Americans will not so easily give it all up.That we will not be bought off. That their big dreams for fundamentally reshaping this nation have been rebuffed in stunning fashion.

I'm not certain that they can even get their minds around it and, God willing, should we be saved from ourselves tomorrow, we should never forget....

We were *this* close to losing it all.

And we'd better damned well stayed focused, because they will learn from their mistakes and, next time, their knives will have been sharpened.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 08:27 PM (piMMO)

107 Howdy guys & gals!

I have it 315-223 R&R. Chik-fil-A Day Pt. 2 - The Republic Strikes Back!!!
(Pudding at the ready)....

Posted by: jwillmoney at November 05, 2012 08:27 PM (zU03n)

108 Still trying to figure out how to vote tomorrow. I am still without power at my place in NJ, so I'm in the DC area with family. I put in for the email ballot thing, but have yet to receive it, and an inquiry about it was dismissed by the bureaucrat on the other side of the phone. So I may have to hike it up to NJ to vote, and find a hotel that still has a room for the night unless my power comes back. But whatever it takes, I'm voting.

Posted by: Doc at November 05, 2012 08:28 PM (RkH4v)

109

The biggest thing giving me hope is that Obama has nothing to offer. He's got a shitty economy, and his new favorite issues are gay marriage and contraception - things that really only play well with the young urban part of his base. He's even given up blue collar types. I don't think there are enough college students to put him over the top.

Posted by: JustLikeDavidHasselhoff at November 05, 2012 08:29 PM (71iUa)

110 Wish I had a sign with a picture of Uncle Sam pointing his finger with the caption "Only you can prevent Socialism."

Posted by: harleycowboy at November 05, 2012 08:29 PM (+9AX9)

111 Harts Location, per their website Barack Obama/Joe Biden (D) 23 Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan (R) 9 Gary Johnson/James Gray (L) 2

Posted by: Doc at November 05, 2012 08:29 PM (RkH4v)

112 Are you effing me about Dixville?  A tie?  Maybe someone died?

Posted by: gayle in California at November 05, 2012 08:30 PM (wgmUB)

113 Jim Cramer, CNBC: Obama 440, Romney 98

What? Is he thinking he'll even lose Texas? Romney's got the entire south locked-up.


****

I'm thinking he's a complete idiot who knows so little about state or national politics so as not to have any shot in hell of making an educated guess. And, he's such a buffoon as to fail to acknowledge his ignorance and refuse to make a prediction.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 08:30 PM (piMMO)

114 I'm a-goin' up to Dick-ville Notch, and get in on that there preference cascade.

Posted by: The littl shyning man at November 05, 2012 08:30 PM (PH+2B)

115 Okay-- SCREW Hart's Location. [swearing deleted]

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 08:30 PM (r2PLg)

116 Harts Location President/Vice President Barack Obama/Joe Biden (D) 23 Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan (R) 9 Gary Johnson/James Gray (L) 2 Virgil Goode/James Clymer (C) 0

Posted by: Up with people at November 05, 2012 08:30 PM (kzFo5)

117 Greg, I'm going to think of you tomorrow when I vote for Romney.

Posted by: JustLikeDavidHasselhoff at November 05, 2012 08:30 PM (71iUa)

118 Any mention of hanging chads?

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 08:31 PM (NIZHJ)

119 Nuke Harts Location.

Posted by: Up with people at November 05, 2012 08:31 PM (kzFo5)

120 Dang. It took 108 comments before the troll from Dixucker Notch showed up...

Posted by: Double Wide at November 05, 2012 08:31 PM (J8jzK)

121 I thought Ace couldn't outdo 2008, but this is 10000x better.

Can't wait to splooge on you neocon wingnuts tomorrow night.


****

Isn't it past your bedtime?

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 08:31 PM (piMMO)

122 The Dog in the Manger Interregnum will begin tomorrow night as Barky concedes. We will witness the most shameful, brazen and disgusting behavior on his part and Mooch's as they pitch a two-plus month long tantrum. We cannot let down our guard during this period.

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars at November 05, 2012 08:32 PM (AxE3L)

123 "Jim Cramer" Do people actually take investment advice from that jabbering assclown, or is he more of a medieval-fool-pretending-to-be-the-prime-minister type character?

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 08:32 PM (LXKJo)

124 I guess Taco Bell closes at midnight?

Posted by: Clutch Cargo at November 05, 2012 08:32 PM (Qxdfp)

125 He had to fellate his girlfriend.

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 08:32 PM (NIZHJ)

126 There's already some bullshit going around Facebook about the Ohio SoS suppressing votes in Democratic areas. Tomorrow may b very, very ugly. The thugs are not going down without throwing every knife they have in their bag.

Posted by: rockmom at November 05, 2012 08:33 PM (qe2/V)

127 When I am elected President: 1) Dixville Notch and Hart's Location will be renamed Hicksville Crotch and Shart's Location 2) I'll think of something later.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 08:33 PM (LXKJo)

128 Does anyone really care about some burb in NH?

Posted by: Ohiovoter at November 05, 2012 08:33 PM (AkFx3)

129

That's not the real Greg.

 

That's  my story and I'm stickin' to it.

 

Even if that is the real Greg.

 

But it's not.

Posted by: Meremortal at November 05, 2012 08:34 PM (1Y+hH)

130 Who is Ben Ghazi?

Posted by: Hamilton Burger at November 05, 2012 08:35 PM (kyFvp)

131 Anybody got a decent come-along?  I seem to be stuck in my ass. 

God, please hurry, I can hear the lunchtime enchilada rumbling through the large intestine. 



Posted by: Jim Cramer's Head at November 05, 2012 08:35 PM (o+SC1)

132

I'm good with that!

 

You need to find a trademark though for your predictions, like groundhogs predicting their shadow.

 

Can you be drunk by 6:00 AM?

 

That will be the new model. If Ace is drunk by 6:00 AM, Republicans win.

 

 

 

 

Posted by: Stateless Infidel at November 05, 2012 08:35 PM (AC0lD)

133 127 He had to fellate his girlfriend.

That's his story and he's sticking to it.

Posted by: Clutch Cargo at November 05, 2012 08:35 PM (Qxdfp)

134 Ace, whatever happens tomorrow, thanks for four years of the best political commentary on the web.  Your prodigious output and trenchant insights, wrapped in some of the funniest prose ever put to pixels, made living under Jugears, Pelosi and Reid almost bearable.

That having been said, we're going to

KICK

ASS

tomorrow.  Bank it.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at November 05, 2012 08:36 PM (pwyhn)

135 He had to fellate his girlfriend.

Close. I had to fellate my mom.

Posted by: Greg at November 05, 2012 08:36 PM (IDypm)

136 Romney 269   Obama 269  (Unless Romney gets 1 electoral vote from Maine, then it would be Romney 270 Obama 26




Posted by: Dr Spank at November 05, 2012 08:36 PM (4cRnj)

137 The state polls aren't *that* good for Obama. If he loses every state where he's under 50 in the RCP average he loses, and the pollsters can still say they were right.

Posted by: schizoid at November 05, 2012 08:38 PM (lYN4G)

138 I think Greg needs to end up in the trunk of a car, along with all those fraudulent ballots from Ohio...  Except this time, neither of them show up at the 11th hour, they're just tucked away in that Indiana Jones warehouse where someday they'll be examined by 'top men'

Posted by: Double Wide at November 05, 2012 08:38 PM (J8jzK)

139 In 2008, Dixville projected Obama the winner, 15 for Obama, 6 for McCain. This year? 5-5. That tells you all you need to know about how Death Panels work, people...

Posted by: t-bird at November 05, 2012 08:38 PM (FcR7P)

140 Per Twitter, people in NYC are getting robocalls from OFA begging them to come to PA tomorrow for "GOTV." You know what that means -- rounding up the Blue State folks and busing them down to Philly to vote in the names of the dead and moved away. Hopefully, Sandy fucked all this up.

Posted by: rockmom at November 05, 2012 08:38 PM (qe2/V)

141 Another aspect of the state/national split is if blacks simply are too lazy to vote in the midterms, but are turning out again big time out of racist/racial loyalty. The 95% black vote for Obama is the malignant cancer nobody wants to talk about. It's racist as fuck and nobody cares. Whites are voting almost 60% for Romney and constantly being accused of being racist.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at November 05, 2012 08:38 PM (ZPrif)

142 Gerg, are you aware that the term "neocon" does not in fact refer to all conservatives?  No, you're not, because you're a leftist fuckwit.

But I repeat myself.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 05, 2012 08:39 PM (WMsq+)

143

Jim Cramer, CNBC: Obama 440, Romney 98

What? Is he thinking he'll even lose Texas? Romney's got the entire south locked-up.


****

I'm thinking he's a complete idiot who knows so little about state or national politics so as not to have any shot in hell of making an educated guess. And, he's such a buffoon as to fail to acknowledge his ignorance and refuse to make a prediction.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 06, 2012 12:30 AM (piMMO)

 

But remember to take his investment advice!  He knows so much about business! 

 

Or you can do the smart thing and realize he is a reverse Midas, just like TFG. 

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at November 05, 2012 08:39 PM (zLp5I)

144

 

Romney wins it tomorrow.

 

The polls are distorted, not just demographics, but also the Bradley Effect. Not a landslide, but a clear win.

 

http://tinyurl.com/8dq4a9f

Posted by: DoverPro at November 05, 2012 08:39 PM (wN82N)

145 they'll be examined by 'top men'

Can one of those "top men" be Lance Bass?

Posted by: Greg at November 05, 2012 08:39 PM (IDypm)

146 thanks ace, I think you're optimistic but i can sleep better after seeing that red map.

Posted by: Mississippi John Hurt at November 05, 2012 08:40 PM (JzkST)

147 >>> How can Obama be tied with Romney, in CNN's final poll, with Independents going +22 for Romney? >>> Oh, right: Because, CNN projects, Democrats will enjoy an unheard-of +11 advantage in votes. >>> I feel odd finally rejecting the state polls, and some national polls (D+11, indeed!) -- giving up on finding some way they could be telling a piece of the truth. As much as I've been saying the race is tight, relying mainly on Gallup and Rasmussen's polling (although, as I've said, I focus on the trend more than the absolute number, because in a population where very few people will answer pollster's questions, or can even be reached by them, poll's topline numbers are dicey) ... ... that CNN poll is beyond absurd. To start with, I don't actually think Romney will win Independents +22. But I am for damn sure the Dems won't show up +11 advantage tomorrow.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 05, 2012 08:40 PM (AVesg)

148 Just checking in real fast to say: OMG YOU GUYS TOMORROW!!!!!!!!!!!11! okay. Thanks for being here, can't wait to do tomorrow night with you.

Posted by: elizabethe votes for Romney/Ryan and butterscotch at November 05, 2012 08:40 PM (TOBhV)

149 I admire your fap embargo, Ace, even though it hasn't really increased your blog output and I don't understand why you're doing it. I've tried to quit myself. I might last most of Saturday, then freaking Judge Jeanine comes on and it's all over...

And oh yeah, your prediction sounds plausible and I hope to Hell that you're right.

Posted by: Jim at November 05, 2012 08:40 PM (g1t2K)

150 >Does Dixville Notch have an Overlook Hotel?



Bates Motel.

Posted by: Jones in CO at November 05, 2012 08:40 PM (8sCoq)

151

Then again, it could be 1996 all over again, with the Republicans holding the House and gaining a few seats in the Senate, and a popular Bill Clinton winning re-election.

 

But then again, Barack Obama is not Bill Clinton, and people really DON'T like him that well.

 

So yeah, it has been a massive psy-ops campaign by Axelrod and his minions to get a willing Media to spike the polls.  I really don't think it is going to be such a legal hassle after tomorrow, but they thought that they could manipulate reality by "messaging" that Obama was "winning".

 

Just like Charlie Sheen was "winning" while crashing his life around his cocaine habit. Winning. Another illusion.

 

Going to bed,  In 5 hours I have to get and vote, vote like my life depends on it.

Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch writes..... at November 05, 2012 08:41 PM (Md8Uo)

152 Shit.  Now the concern troll is here too?

Damn, this thread is circling the bowl already.

Posted by: Double Wide at November 05, 2012 08:41 PM (J8jzK)

153 I also think the polls are wrong for same reasons listed.  The biggest factor for why I think Romney will win:

1)Polls are universally showing Romney winning independents by just under double digits

2)  Both Gallup and Rasmussen have Republican identification at all time highs

These point to a big Romney victory and are very difficult to "game".

And lastly, this isn't quantifiable, but in all my life, I have never seen such enthusiasm for a Republican candidate.  The difference between 2008 and 2012 in the area I live is startling.  Yard signs all over the place and Romney bumper stickers at nearly every stop light.  they outnumber Obama by about 50 to 1.  Bush in 2004 was supposedly a high water mark for the GOP, but the enthusiasm I'm seeing surpasses that election year by leaps and bounds.

Posted by: Jeepers at November 05, 2012 08:41 PM (XDRsa)

154 If he said neo con he is probably a  Paulophile and a Joneser.

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 08:42 PM (NIZHJ)

155 Now I think I missed something... which movie was Ace reviewing???

Posted by: Bill from Chappaqua at November 05, 2012 08:42 PM (MAhUT)

156 153 >Does Dixville Notch have an Overlook Hotel? Bates Motel. Mother hasn't voted yet. She's in the basement.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Barry will filch all the R keys at November 05, 2012 08:42 PM (AZGON)

157 That having been said, we're going to

KICK

ASS


***

Will it look like this?

http://tinyurl.com/b8v99y8

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 08:42 PM (piMMO)

158 I'm feeling pretty confident that Romney/Ryan will win.  I don't know how big the win will be, but I'm sure it will be a win.  In my little corner of Ohio, the enthusiasm for Romney/Ryan is pretty extreme.  I'm seeing Romney/Ryan yard signs everywhere, and it wasn't like that at all in 2008.   I'm actually seeing a lot more yard signs and bumper stickers than I saw in 2010. 

Posted by: RWBuckeye at November 05, 2012 08:43 PM (o5VCR)

159 Bad Sign..

Hart’s Location – Obama 23 Romney 9

So NH total so far is Obama 28 Romney 14

Posted by: Paul at November 05, 2012 08:43 PM (xwVUV)

160 >>>Romney winning independents by just under double digits Sounds a lot more plausible than +22. The CNN poll is nonsense.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 05, 2012 08:43 PM (AVesg)

161 Apparently two of those Dixville Notch SCOAMF voters voter in the republican primary.

Posted by: GVanDerWaals at November 05, 2012 08:44 PM (mDYoR)

162

Obama's deputy campaign manager says PA is "tightening".

 

What   can it mean????

Posted by: Meremortal at November 05, 2012 08:44 PM (1Y+hH)

163 But only the most anti-racist people in the world will re-hire the incompetent one By which you mean only the most racist..., but I'm sure that's been covered upstream.

Posted by: t-bird at November 05, 2012 08:44 PM (FcR7P)

164 >>>Bad Sign.. >>>Hart’s Location – Obama 23 Romney 9 >>>So NH total so far is Obama 28 Romney 14 Oh crap. Well let me revise my prediction to Obama takes every state but Alaska, and he gets 82 million total votes, with Romney giving his concession speech in 20 minutes.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 05, 2012 08:45 PM (AVesg)

165 I don't think 42 total votes qualifies as a 'bad sign'

Posted by: Double Wide at November 05, 2012 08:45 PM (J8jzK)

166 113 Harts Location, per their website Barack Obama/Joe Biden (D) 23 Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan (R) 9 Gary Johnson/James Gray (L) 2 ----------------------------- All is lost!

Posted by: America Fuck Yeah! at November 05, 2012 08:45 PM (eDr4W)

167

Thanks Ace, and btw, they played Led Zeppelin when Mitt left New Hampshire tonight.

Posted by: concrete girl at November 05, 2012 08:45 PM (y2Ojs)

168 Ace, does Romney win Iowa and Colorado?

Posted by: Dr Spank at November 05, 2012 08:45 PM (4cRnj)

169

 

Fewer voters in Dixville Notch apparently because a resort there closed due to Obama's economy. Yet 5 still voted for him.

 

Posted by: RokShox at November 05, 2012 08:45 PM (8MMMw)

170 Don't let Obama win.  My transmission kept me from early voting.  I am voting tomorrow (today) come Hell or high water.

There are two reasons to vote for the Democrat:  1-you are stupid, or 2-you are evil.

Don't be either one of those.

Posted by: BeckoningChasm at November 05, 2012 08:46 PM (i0App)

171 >>>Ace, does Romney win Iowa and Colorado? those seem to be safest for him, especially Colorado.

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 08:46 PM (LCRYB)

172 Do you figure Dixville Notch has cable? Rubio on Fox.

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 08:47 PM (NIZHJ)

173 Your jib cut, Ace, jibs mostly with my jib cut.  Wisconsin either is or isn't.  And it can't not be.  So, it must be.  Therefore, the polls are BS.
I have racking doubts, though, going from a 262 loss for R to a 350+win.
But I am glad that you're calling BS on the BS.  Great play, BTW, on what a fool Clinton was by riding Gingrich's success as his own, all he had to do was seriosuly fuck up.

Posted by: joeindc44 has a D+10 sample for you at November 05, 2012 08:47 PM (Z3ckx)

174 @163 - it means I just snapped a pencil off with my sphincter.

Posted by: David 'Permanent Facial Hair Majority' Axelrod at November 05, 2012 08:47 PM (o+SC1)

175 Is Hart location dem country or republican?

Posted by: Paul at November 05, 2012 08:47 PM (xwVUV)

176 If he said neo con he is probably a Paulophile and a Joneser.

---

More like a coprophile and a wanker.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 05, 2012 08:47 PM (WMsq+)

177 Haha!  I thought I was the only one crazy enough to go with 348-190, not even Dick Morris went there.  Yay! 

Posted by: Beth at November 05, 2012 08:48 PM (kBxk7)

178

Those Dixville Notch folks moved to Harts because of the waffles.

 

Waffles and the EBT cards.

Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch writes..... at November 05, 2012 08:48 PM (Md8Uo)

179

Let's see, so Obama was crying at the podium tonight because his internal polls are looking so good?  He's so relieved to be winning easily?

 

And where the hell is Michele? Shouldn't she be by Obama's side at his final event, which flopped in attendance? 

Posted by: Meremortal at November 05, 2012 08:48 PM (1Y+hH)

180 SHIT! Who's turn is it to keep suicide watch on Tingles?

Posted by: Ball of Hate at November 05, 2012 08:48 PM (AREf/)

181 A big wet kiss to all you guys. No prediction, but I feel good. I might stay away, though. I think we'll do good, maybe I'll stay offline.

Posted by: Max Power at November 05, 2012 08:48 PM (+wxCD)

182 Can't wait to hear the lamentations of their wymyn.

Posted by: Double Wide at November 05, 2012 08:48 PM (J8jzK)

183 Remember what we accomplished in 2010? Don't forget what we also accomplished in 2012, already: Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker recall election: "We're going to have a long night"..."Every indication, this is going to go down to the wire"..."What looks to be a very long night"... Yet, "Polls closed for just under an hour, up until this point NBC News has been characterizing the race as too close to call, but NBC News is now prepared to change its projection: NBC News is projecting that Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin has survived the recall election." 17 minutes later Barrett concedes. "We all thought it was going to be a long night... possible all nighter... maybe even the Today Show tomorrow morning wouldn't be able to help you out with the results..." "Recall of Scott Walker would actually be decided in a matter of 49 minutes... 49 minutes... 49 minutes after the polls closed in Wisconsin, NBC News declared Scott Walker the projected winner... It did not even take an hour. http://tinyurl.com/7cozex3 Bonus link to crying man: http://tinyurl.com/c23y76e

Posted by: Stormy's stocked up with chocolate pudding! at November 05, 2012 08:48 PM (1f2Z2)

184 Ace...

I'm a fan, but please get this bipolar thing under control. Pick an emotion and go with it. We're gonna win! But we might loose! But we will also win! But we also might lose! *Tweak!!!!*

When it's election time you give me anxiety and acid reflux at the same time. This close to game day we need a captain that's sure of victory even if he has his own doubts, would sooth the horde greatly.

Posted by: mnm at November 05, 2012 08:48 PM (qQVt2)

185 My Prediction: Obama loses Hawaii

Posted by: Craig Poe at November 05, 2012 08:48 PM (BVkEs)

186 >>>Is Hart location dem country or republican? It's swing state, baby, all the way.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 05, 2012 08:48 PM (AVesg)

187
Don't be either one of those.


*****

That sounds like the ending to one of those Direct TV ads.

Don't wind up in a ditch.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 08:49 PM (piMMO)

188 Harts Location, great spot for a reeducation camp.

Posted by: JEM at November 05, 2012 08:49 PM (o+SC1)

189 yeah at least when Paulites use neocon as an insult they know at least a little what they're talking about, even if they're wrong (American Imperialism blah blah blah.) Libs like Greg just use it as a generic insult they picked up

Posted by: JDP at November 05, 2012 08:49 PM (8HhF2)

190 "Now, Team Obama explains that a growing, rather than shrinking, Democratic advantage in the electorate is possible because they've signed up 1.8 new voters. That's very wonderful." No, that's very not proofreading dammit. Carry on.

Posted by: Texas Ranger at November 05, 2012 08:49 PM (IvvrO)

191 To be honest, I wanted to throw Oregon in Romney's column too, but I refuse to be irrationally exuberant.  348-190. 

Posted by: Beth at November 05, 2012 08:49 PM (kBxk7)

192 I did my share of bitching about Romney all through the primaries. I dig him now. Let's do this.

Posted by: Knemon at November 05, 2012 08:49 PM (xB6um)

193 One day at a time

Go ahead and pick up a DWF charge with the little Ewok.  The Police need a good laugh every now and then.

Posted by: DaveA at November 05, 2012 08:49 PM (MOWP1)

194 If Romney wins Iowa and Colorado (and Virginia, Florida and North Carolina), he can lose Ohio and still get to 269, a tie with Obama.

Posted by: Dr Spank at November 05, 2012 08:49 PM (4cRnj)

195 So I have decided the state polls are simply wrong, and the national polls understate Romney's support by 3-4 points. ------ Actually, you're actually trusting the polls including the national polls by some clever irony of yours, Ace. See, there are two things that make you right even while you're wrong. 1. You state the polls are wrong. Yes and no. The state polls are indeed inflated. But instead of looking at the final score, ask what +D party split is needed for Obama to win. So if you normalize all the polls in order to get back the raw data, you see that he needs a high Dem turnout. Above +4 in most cases compared to Republicans, but that's assuming Indies don't tilt too far to Romney. So you see, you're saying you trust the raw data of the poll, but not the pollsters. That's actually a sane stance. 2. The national polls. Heard on Glenn Beck that the national poll tightened because of Sandy, but only in Eastern blue states (not VA). So it's still +4 or +5 for Romney if you leave out those blue states. Ace, you actually are spot on wrt to the raw data. You actually DO believe in the polls, just not the pollsters.

Posted by: MrX at November 05, 2012 08:49 PM (PxmNZ)

196 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/dixville-notch-election-results-2012_n_2080804.html Your thoughts on which ones in the picture are R and O voters?

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 08:50 PM (LXKJo)

197 " Libs like Greg just use it as a generic insult they picked up" Yeah, just like they used to use "fascist".

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 08:50 PM (LXKJo)

198 I love this ace guy

Posted by: Max Power at November 05, 2012 08:51 PM (+wxCD)

199 Will it look like this?

http://tinyurl.com/b8v99y8

I hope those guys were all Democrats.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at November 05, 2012 08:51 PM (pwyhn)

200 We all defer to your expertise in sucking dick, Gerg.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 05, 2012 08:51 PM (WMsq+)

201 @198 - and just like we use 'Greg'.

Posted by: JEM at November 05, 2012 08:51 PM (o+SC1)

202 When it's election time you give me anxiety and acid reflux at the same time. This close to game day we need a captain that's sure of victory even if he has his own doubts, would sooth the horde greatly.


****

Ace runs his own blog and folks come here for free information and entertainment, but if you think that makes him the leader of some sort of cult, you are mistaken.

Is that what you are looking for in a blog?

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 08:51 PM (piMMO)

203 People are freaking out over one county?  Did you not see the electricity in that NH  rally?  Wicked. 

Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 05, 2012 08:51 PM (nvKct)

204 Problem with 2010 vs. 2012 is midterm and presidential electorates are different i think one question is, how many new young voters have the Dems recruited, how many McCain voters have died off (not meant as a diss, just obviously the GOP skews older in voters.) It won't be 2008 obviously but Obama may've made up for some of the gap from people disillusioned with him. the question is if it'll be enough

Posted by: JDP at November 05, 2012 08:52 PM (8HhF2)

205 I am a master at the suckage of cock.  No one comes near my expertise.  It's not something natural, but learned over time, over long, hard (and I mean HARD) hours at the glory hole.  Practice makes perfect!

Posted by: Greg at November 05, 2012 08:52 PM (/YJYi)

206 @205 - I'd rather see DC go to Hell, frankly. 

Posted by: JEM at November 05, 2012 08:52 PM (o+SC1)

207 #204: I think most people are joking, Mo.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 08:52 PM (LXKJo)

208 I want to add that the national poll I'm talking about is Gallup and this is what their internals showed. That it's the east coast that tilted their numbers. Nothing else changed. Still Mitt Romney +4 or +5 nationally. Nice that they hid it away, eh?

Posted by: MrX at November 05, 2012 08:52 PM (PxmNZ)

209 There is an 89% chance that the Mayans are right.

Posted by: Nate Silver's The Model(TM)(R)(C) at November 05, 2012 08:53 PM (o5VCR)

210 i see the gergerator now picked up the term "Paulite" cuz I used it.

Posted by: JDP at November 05, 2012 08:53 PM (8HhF2)

211 181 SHIT! Who's turn is it to keep suicide watch on Tingles? ----------------------------- I drew the 7-8pm shift. Gonna give him his belt and shoe laces back........and then go for coffee and a bagel. He should be ok by himself.

Posted by: America Fuck Yeah! at November 05, 2012 08:53 PM (R0JuT)

212 I like Ace's neurotic manic-depressive style. Of course it's mainly just acerbicly depressive -- but he's been trying to change that with less porn-based fapping.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at November 05, 2012 08:53 PM (ZPrif)

213 how many new young voters have the Dems recruited

---

Irrelevant if they don't actually vote.  And remember, there's no history to be made this time.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 05, 2012 08:53 PM (WMsq+)

214 "i think one question is, how many new young voters have the Dems recruited," Given that half of last year's college graduates are unemployed? Not many.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 08:53 PM (LXKJo)

215 Whose night is it in the barrel?

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 08:53 PM (NIZHJ)

216 Mo the Girl,large crowds mean nothing. Kerry had large crowds also and he lost. I want Romoney to win. I can't stand Obama,but I'm not going to base turnout on a crowd rally.

Posted by: Paul at November 05, 2012 08:54 PM (xwVUV)

217 168 Which Led Zeppelin Song? I could only endure ten minutes of Charlie Rose, the Panel were discussing an Obama second term. Matthew Dowd one hundred percent certain Obama would win over 300 EV's. Says the "Independents" internals mean nothing.

Posted by: War69.com at November 05, 2012 08:54 PM (ayPhb)

218 >>>A rule Pelle Nilsson told me--probably didn't originate with him, but Ace would know that name--has served me well on the Internet: "Be most skeptical of that which you wish to believe."

I agree with and follow the rule too. But you know what? We have very good reason to believe that the people who are putting out the information DON'T. That kinda skews the idea of caution into a cocked hat before we even have a chance to apply it.

Posted by: sistrum at November 05, 2012 08:54 PM (SUlmX)

219 If Romney wins Iowa and Colorado (and Virginia, Florida and North Carolina), he can lose Ohio and still get to 269, a tie with Obama.

Posted by: Dr Spank at November 06, 2012 12:49 AM (4cRnj)


If Romney wins IA, CO, VA, FL, and NC, ain't no way OH is going blue.


Besides, it's WHEN Romney whens those states.  And by then, Barky will be hearing the lamentations of his wookie, and it won't be a pretty sight...

Posted by: Double Wide at November 05, 2012 08:54 PM (J8jzK)

220 and yes, guy above this comment, theD+ skew is to hide Romney's big I surge.

I noticed this months ago (ok, a month ago), the polls only show that Romney gets I's by 2-1, so...you have to call BS, unless we are so woefully uninformed that we're in for a huge shock.

And it's like this, in 2008, we thought that D skewing was hiding a big McCain lead.  No.  it just mirrored the I swing for D.  This time, it's being used to hide the I's

Posted by: joeindc44 has a D+10 sample for you at November 05, 2012 08:55 PM (Z3ckx)

221 Glad to see you put Nevada in the red column; there is almost no enthusiasm in this State for Obama, and the Reid political machines are not turning as they were two years ago. In addition, there is a very large Mormon population at the southern end of the state.

Clark County will go blue, Washoe will be purple, the rest will be red. As will Nevada itself.

P.S. I'm not voting for Romney tomorrow...

...because I voted for him last Saturday and they just won't let me do it again this year.

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 05, 2012 08:55 PM (qQVt2)

222

Bold prediction Ace. I like it. I am out on a limb with friends and family. I told them my guess is Romney will win bigger than they thought possible. I just don't see Obama winning. I t makes no sense. Am I too insulated ? I hope not.

 

 

Posted by: The Jackhole on Ventura Highway at November 05, 2012 08:55 PM (DU15A)

223 Thanks for all of the effort you and the co-bloggers have put forth here in the last four years. After the election in 2008 I was pretty sure the country was fucked (and lets face it debt wise we are very close to fucked). Ace of Spade HQ has been a great life line for keeping the conservative home fires burning waiting for this day to come.

Posted by: Drew in MO at November 05, 2012 08:55 PM (T57vh)

224 >>>I'm a fan, but please get this bipolar thing under control. Pick an emotion and go with it. We're gonna win! But we might loose! But we will also win! But we also might lose! *Tweak!!!!* Honestly, if you don't think we could *possibly* lose, and you've got a problem with people broaching that as a mere possibility... I don't know what to tell you. Obviously you DO feel we could lose, otherwise you wouldn't be so upset by my mere mention of that scenario. My feelings on the election's outcome vary with data. I don't know how it could be otherwise, except to give in to a sort of thinking I don't like.

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 08:55 PM (LCRYB)

225 I did my share of bitching about Romney all through the primaries.

I dig him now.

Let's do this.


***

At this point I would vote for a good and decent, albeit incompetent man, over Obama. We are Blessed to have a candidate that straddles both the good/decent requirement AND the competency requirement.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 08:56 PM (piMMO)

226

I think Iowa does not go for Romney, nor Minnesota. That is a bridge too far.

 

If Pennsylvania goes for Mitt, then the evening really is over early, and Obama cannnot win. "Too close to call" is the way it appears, unless the  actual voting (and all the corruption in Philly) manufacture enough votes for Obama. 

But Romney definitely takes Ohio, and ever perhaps Michigan.  The demographics in Michigan are changing in a generational way.  With Democratic rich Detroit dying, the majority of the state is Republican.

Romney also takes Wisconsin, but it will be a nail-biter, and he won't win the state until early in the morning of the 7th.

A big but small surprise will be Romney taking New Mexico.

Romney also takes Colorado, but doesn't win Nevada.  Too much Californication of Nevada, as that moves into the Democrat tote board for the next generation.

Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch writes..... at November 05, 2012 08:56 PM (Md8Uo)

227 Just checking.... Are the trolls out in force...?

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 05, 2012 08:56 PM (9+ccr)

228 215 but not everyone votes on economic issues, Dems and GOP alike. A good amount of the young vote might just be about what's "hip" (and obviously we've got tons of rationalization from the Dems about how the current situation has nothing to do with them)

Posted by: JDP at November 05, 2012 08:56 PM (8HhF2)

229 203 When it's election time you give me anxiety and acid reflux at the same
time. This close to game day we need a captain that's sure of victory
even if he has his own doubts, would sooth the horde greatly.


****

Ace runs his own blog and folks come here for free information and entertainment, but if you think that makes him the leader of some sort of cult, you are mistaken.

Is that what you are looking for in a blog?

***

Nerp. I'm looking for information from a person that is sure about the opinions they render. Steady. Even. Not about to jump a cliff. I trust Ace for the half part. Been reading him for about four years now, but he turns into a tweak at election time.

Seeing as you hastily jump to his defense over a relatively innocuous suggestion, what is it you are looking for in him? Recognition, a pat on the butt?

I don't think he swings that way.

Posted by: mnm at November 05, 2012 08:57 PM (qQVt2)

230 Plus I seem to remeber in 08. We all said ignore the polls then also and that damn Obama won. Which blew chunks.

Posted by: Paul at November 05, 2012 08:57 PM (xwVUV)

231 Just checking.... Are the trolls out in force...?

---

Just a fake Gerg (if one accepts that there is actually a "real" Gerg in the first place) and good old Samdumb.  So far anyway.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 05, 2012 08:57 PM (WMsq+)

232
A few more via NY Mag.  Just the winner's EVs:

Cokie Roberts Obama 294

Ari Fleischer Romney 271

David Weigel Romney 276

Ed Morrissey Romney 311



Weigel trying to sell out the Dems this time around. Ed had two bowls of oatmeal this morning, so apparently he's feeling pretty frisky.


Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 05, 2012 08:57 PM (kdS6q)

233 wins. 

Damn.  I can't believe I effed that up.

Posted by: Double Wide at November 05, 2012 08:57 PM (J8jzK)

234 I'm tired of this election and just want it to be over. I've donated what I could spare. I've volunteered for poll observing for 11 hours straight at times. I've spent time I could have used for work, family, and friends. But I'd do it all over again if I was given the choice. Defeating the SCoaMF is THAT important. I'm out early for the night. I plan on getting up early to vote, going to a probably unpleasant meeting, and then get ready for all the election data to come in. As I type this, I am remined of the words spoken by a legal immigrant from the old Communist bloc back in 2010. She said: "How could you let this happen here? This is socialism; this is communism. I know; I lived under it for forty years! We were invaded and had it imposed on us; we didn’t have a choice – you do. Why are you letting this happen?" I for one, will not just sit back and let it happen. Worst comes to worst, let us remember the words of Virgil: "Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit" Until tomorrow fellow 'rons and 'ettes...

Posted by: The Political Hat at November 05, 2012 08:58 PM (sZTYJ)

235 I just ran a projection on 270towin.com, and I come up with Romney 331  Obama 207.  Romney winning CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, VA, NC, FL, NH.  Obama winning NV.  I'd love to see MN flip, too.  I just don't put much faith in a state that elected Stuart Smalley.

Posted by: RWBuckeye at November 05, 2012 08:58 PM (o5VCR)

236 Mnm. I come here for honest analysis. If I want to be deluded there are plenty of places for that.

Posted by: California red at November 05, 2012 08:58 PM (DXTKe)

237 And Farty Bolger.

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 08:58 PM (NIZHJ)

238 Per Twitter, people in NYC are getting robocalls from OFA begging them to come to PA tomorrow for "GOTV." You know what that means -- rounding up the Blue State folks and busing them down to Philly to vote in the names of the dead and moved away.


Hopefully, Sandy fucked all this up.

Posted by: rockmom at November 06, 2012 12:38 AM (qe2/V)


Wow, that sounds pretty damn desperate.  Who the fuck drops the next day's plans to travel to another state for GOTV based on a robocall?

OFA = totally caught off-guard by the PA maneuver.  They have no GOTV there.  Can't divert it from Ohio... or VA... and no other swing state is nearby.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 08:58 PM (zrpqj)

239 Remember teh OUTRAGE! when Bristol Palin made it to the finals of Dancing With the Stars? Gonna be that times a million.

Posted by: Hobo Hunter at November 05, 2012 08:59 PM (grjFJ)

240 I expect something really weird to happen, such as what I call "Early Suicide, Party Later": 1. Early in the evening NH, VIrginia, and PA go to Obama. At that point, weak-minded conservatives take an overdose of sleeping pills, hang themselves, and while dangling in the air shoot themselves in the head, thus missing the party later. (Tip: Call 911 first.) 2. Romney proceeds to win FL, OH, WI, MN, IA, CO, NV, and OR, winning 301 to 237. Moral of the story: do not freak out if your narrative fails early. We may not proceed directly to a coronation in Gondor. We may tour a little bit of Mordor first.

Posted by: edj at November 05, 2012 08:59 PM (+QKfp)

241 I don't know. That nro chat with Romney guy has me worried. That didn't sound good at all. Like they gave up on Ohio and were going or a pa hail mary

Posted by: Miutbc at November 05, 2012 08:59 PM (8sD4m)

242 Krauthammer was arguing that Romney lost momentum because Christie hugged Obama.

I think that unpersuasive: why not state the obvious , that a freakin' big and powerful storm distracted everyone, and sidelined interest in the election for a (short)  time? 

Isn't that what all the "look! a squirrel!" distractions were supposed to do?

And if polling showed a drift in Romney momentum, how would any pollster know that the Christie thing was the cause (unless they loaded their questioning by asking)?

Do the pollsters ask the same sample every time?  If so, how would that make the polls random? 

And if it's random, then why would a pollster know that the Christie thing moved 1% of the voters when the polls generally have 4% +/- error based on random sampling?

Could this be a case of fallacious arguing "from the negative", as in "if it's not the Christie thing, what could it be"?

(see also, CO2 as the cause of alleged Global Warming)

Posted by: Jim Sonweed at November 05, 2012 08:59 PM (2c1Cq)

243 Thanks for all of the effort you and the co-bloggers have put forth here in the last four years. Seconded, this has been a great haven thru funemployment. And, if things don't work out tomorrow, at least I know what flag to look for when I go to the camps.

Posted by: t-bird at November 05, 2012 08:59 PM (FcR7P)

244
Seeing as you hastily jump to his defense over a relatively innocuous suggestion, what is it you are looking for in him? Recognition, a pat on the butt?

I don't think he swings that way.


*****

Four years, huh?

You don't like the way he delivers his thoughts but you keep coming back for more.

Makes sense.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 09:00 PM (piMMO)

245 Thank you all for helping me get through this...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 05, 2012 09:00 PM (9+ccr)

246 prediction 311-227 for romney. 

Posted by: joeindc44 has a D+10 sample for you at November 05, 2012 09:01 PM (Z3ckx)

247 227 I think Iowa does not go for Romney, nor Minnesota. That is a bridge too far.


The latest Rasmussen poll has Romney up 1 in Iowa.

Posted by: Dr Spank at November 05, 2012 09:01 PM (4cRnj)

248 Would the RNC publish this today if they were going to lose?


The Obama camp has been firing off a number of memos in desperate attempt to convince the media (and themselves) that theyÂ’re not losing. What they arenÂ’t telling you is this isnÂ’t 2008; the numbers show weÂ’re doing much better in early voting, and they are doing much worse.

But more importantly we are poised to blow the Obama campaign out on Election Day thanks to a superior GOTV program and a historical GOP Election Day advantage

In the four party-registration states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada), we are poised to win the Election Day vote by even greater margins than we did in 2008. ThatÂ’s right, Jeremy Bird, we beat you on Election Day even in 2008.

This time around we have over 150,000 volunteers across the battleground who have already contacted over 53 million voters and expect to contact millions more from now until the polls close tomorrow night.

The Democrats have expended much energy to make the point that more Democrats than Republicans have voted early in some states. It makes sense that the same desperate campaign that made “revenge” their closing argument would make this ridiculous stat the central defense of their ground game. Republicans are an Election Day party. By and large, we vote on Election Day, and we vote in much larger numbers than Democrats.

DemocratsÂ’ problems are compounded because, as they fail to tell you, they are cannibalizing their Election Day voters. The great turnout operation they claim to have isnÂ’t turning out enough new or sporadic voters; theyÂ’re largely getting their reliable voters to vote early instead of on Election Day.

The Republican strategy has been the reverse of the DemocratsÂ’. We have turned out our voters who arenÂ’t as likely to come to the polls on Election Day, securing their votes during early voting. Now, all that remains to do is give our reliable voters the final reminder needed to get them to the polls Tuesday. And we have many more reliable voters left than the Democrats.

In Colorado there are over 26,000 (34%) more high-propensity Republican voters available than high-propensity Democrat voters. In Florida there are 166,000 (21%) more; 85,000 (47%) more in Iowa; and 16,000 (22%) more in Nevada.

And in Ohio, Republicans have 368,000 more high-propensity voters available than Democrats–72 percent more, in fact–and enough to off-set the Obama campaign’s most optimistic (and unrealistic) early vote math.

So, when you add it all up, the DemocratsÂ’ early vote advantage just isnÂ’t big enough. Republicans will come out ahead, and Mitt Romney will claim victory. And our superior ground game will ensure that the margin of victory is even greater than these numbers would suggest.

The Obama campaignÂ’s superior ground game is a myth. They claim they have double and triple the people and offices across the country, yet poll after poll has shown voters have been contacted equally if not more by the Romney campaign and the Republicans. It goes to show you what big government bureaucracy gets you.

IÂ’m glad Democrats are so eager to talk about their ground game. The more they talk, the more they prove the numbers donÂ’t add up.

ItÂ’s (ground) game over.

Posted by: Llarry at November 05, 2012 09:01 PM (Qj/8S)

249 Just checking.... Are the trolls out in force...?

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 06, 2012 12:56 AM (9+ccr)

 

 

None. Just people socking them, especially Greg.  Actually there never was a real Greg, so Greg can be ignored. All Gregs are fake and always were.

Posted by: Meremortal at November 05, 2012 09:02 PM (1Y+hH)

250 My prediction: I'm gonna have to open more than one bottle of wine.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Barry will filch all the R keys at November 05, 2012 09:02 PM (AZGON)

251 People are freaking out over one county? Did you not see the electricity in that NH rally? Wicked. Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 06 are you in NE?

Posted by: yankeefifth at November 05, 2012 09:02 PM (Z9EHQ)

252 <<You don't like the way he delivers his thoughts but you keep coming back for more.>>

The keyword you clearly missed was "sometimes".

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 05, 2012 09:03 PM (qQVt2)

253 365-173 but, if IL goes red, can I win a prize?

Posted by: d *stocked up on tequila and praying for a red IL* at November 05, 2012 09:03 PM (vYc6R)

254

Posted by: War69.com at November 06, 2012 12:54 AM (ayPhb)

 

 

 

The Led Zepp song that has, "laughing in the rain..."

 

 

(I had a flashback when they started playing it, lol)

Posted by: concrete girl at November 05, 2012 09:04 PM (y2Ojs)

255 "blue-collar white males flipping over to the Socialist view of the world" this is a little silly I think, assuming that all blue-collar people in the state who vote Obama are as left-wing as he is

Posted by: JDP at November 05, 2012 09:04 PM (8HhF2)

256 <<but, if IL goes red, can I win a prize?>>

If IL goes red Ima start keeping an eye out for a certain four horsemen...

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 05, 2012 09:05 PM (qQVt2)

257 >>>Nerp. I'm looking for information from a person that is sure about the opinions they render. Steady. Even. Not about to jump a cliff. I trust Ace for the half part. Been reading him for about four years now, but he turns into a tweak at election time. I didn't turn into a "tweak" in 2010. I was the guy pushing for 70 or 80. To the extent I was upset at any time it was at the idea we might only get 60. I did express some doubts about McCain/Palin (though I pushed the narrative we were real close). The reason I had doubts about McCain/Palin were simple: It was pretty obvious we were going to get clobbered. So what else are you talking about? I remember being pretty worried about 2004, but I kept most worries (most) off the blog. In fact, we narrowly won that. It was pretty close, actually. I don't know if this is the difference between an empiricist and a sort of -- I don't know what to call it, faith-based thinking or whatever. I don't believe in Providence. I don't believe God is weighing in on these elections. I've been upfront about that. I think elections are determined by human beliefs and human actions. And humans can be pretty stupid, as history shows. And shows. And shows. I don't know what you want me to say. I have had a Vision, and it has guaranteed me a Romney victory? When the polls are tied, as they are now (state polls are against us, a bit), it's sort of a 50/50 proposition. Now, for the reasons I laid out, I think, were I a betting man, I'd put money on us winning, as I think we are likelier than not to win. But you must understand this is a probabilistic thing. It's guesswork. It's prognostication. No, I do not have perfect confidence in my prediction. I would 60% of the time, my predictions are right every time. I do not understand what you are asking. For certainty about a thing which by its very nature is highly uncertain?

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 09:05 PM (LCRYB)

258 As Brit Hume says, something's wrong here, and we don't know what. Close. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpatC8sR-KU

Posted by: rickl at November 05, 2012 09:05 PM (sdi6R)

259 I have been adding 3 points to the polls in my head for a while now, for years actually, as repubs always get undercounted.  So that isn't even counting the crazy D+11.

If you do that things start to meld.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk says Mitt 303 to 235 at November 05, 2012 09:05 PM (PHb2k)

260 Don't fall for the weekend polling. It shows this every election that the Dems always go up 2-3 points in the polls the weekend before the election. Once the election returns come in, the numbers usually look like the numbers released Friday before the election.

Posted by: MrCaniac votes in 4hours 55 minutes at November 05, 2012 09:05 PM (Zd/NW)

261 Four years, huh?

You don't like the way he delivers his thoughts but you keep coming back for more.

Makes sense.

***

*stares*

My very first words in this conversation was. "Ace... I am a fan..."

Get your nose out of his butt and clean it off. It's not becoming.

Posted by: mnm at November 05, 2012 09:06 PM (qQVt2)

262 296 EV to Romney for the win. As long as the country remains mostly right, we'll be fine. If not, I suggest all Morons pool resources and buy up a massive chunk of Belize, relocate, take over their government, and start anew. R/R already have my early vote. I'm off to bed and spending tomorrow contacting swing state voters through social media. Phones are so 20th Century. Vote, then with every free moment do work getting more votes in the books where they count the most. Contact everyone you know in each swing state, ask them to vote and to make sure everyone they know there has voted. Then if you're not working phones, hop online and find swing state voters on Facebook, Twitter, yahoo messenger and other chats, Skype, cam sites like Stickam...whatever you are familiar with, and be the wave.

Posted by: MostlyRight at November 05, 2012 09:06 PM (ZG8Ti)

263 The extraterrestrial vote is in: Obama scores big on Uranus.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Barry will filch all the R keys at November 05, 2012 09:06 PM (AZGON)

264 The Ocean.

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 09:07 PM (NIZHJ)

265 See you all tomorrow to celebrate!

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 05, 2012 09:07 PM (9+ccr)

266 254 365-173
but, if IL goes red, can I win a prize?4

That's the thing, if the BS polls are BS, then we start seeing the 1980 election results.  But, that's the thing, we can't accept that right now.  I have Romney at 262 to 311 depending on ebbing and flowing confidence in how BS the polls are.

Posted by: joeindc44 has a D+10 sample for you at November 05, 2012 09:07 PM (Z3ckx)

267 "Apparently 2010 never happened, the country never rose up to reject socialism and failure, and 2008's Democratic plurality grew by leaps and bounds."

One reasonable answer, that goes against Romney, is that brown people didn't show up to vote in 2010 because their guy wasn't on the ticket.  It could be that they'll all show up in 2012, especially if their Aunties and Grandmas make sure they show up.

Posted by: txconservative at November 05, 2012 09:08 PM (5UMyr)

268 Lawsuits, fraud, tears, riots. I'm thinking these are the stages of grief some will go through tomorrow.

Posted by: California red at November 05, 2012 09:09 PM (DXTKe)

269 My very first words in this conversation was. "Ace... I am a fan..." Get your nose out of his butt and clean it off. It's not becoming. **** Two comments in a row with reference to the posterior region. Methinks you might be the one with the obsession with all things ass.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 09:09 PM (piMMO)

270 Off Topic sidebar note: Outstanding work by Fritz with The Gods of the Copybook Headings.

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 05, 2012 09:09 PM (qQVt2)

271 Dixville Notch --- stage name for my exwife!

Posted by: Concern Troll at November 05, 2012 09:09 PM (b1iOR)

272 The McRibs aren't out till December this year.

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 09:09 PM (NIZHJ)

273 " It could be that they'll all show up in 2012, especially if their Aunties and Grandmas make sure they show up." Yep, because their church-going Aunties and Grandmas are all about the gay marriage.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 09:10 PM (LXKJo)

274 Dixville Notch --- stage name for my exwife! **** Was she a hooker?!

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 09:10 PM (piMMO)

275
Yep, because their church-going Aunties and Grandmas are all about the gay marriage.
 

  And abortion...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 05, 2012 09:10 PM (9+ccr)

276 In a future production of "An Election Eve Jay-Z Concert", Barack Obama will be visited by a ghost of Benghazi Past...

Posted by: t-bird at November 05, 2012 09:11 PM (FcR7P)

277 <<Dixville Notch --- stage name for my exwife!>>

you owe me a new keyboard...

...and a Pepsi...

...and sinuses.

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 05, 2012 09:11 PM (qQVt2)

278 Where are the Benghazi Survivors?
  If I were a reprter, I wouldn't be able to sleep until I FOUND THEM
Where are the interviews?
  Why have they not come forward??
  I want some first hand stuff, are they locked up???

Posted by: Mark Richardson at November 05, 2012 09:11 PM (yraRk)

279 Was Donkey Hotay real?

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 09:11 PM (NIZHJ)

280 Half of Obama's Dixville Notch voters in 2008 are now in jail for marrying their Holsteins.

Posted by: TexasJew at November 05, 2012 09:11 PM (lD8ju)

281 >>>One reasonable answer, that goes against Romney, is that brown people didn't show up to vote in 2010 because their guy wasn't on the ticket. It could be that they'll all show up in 2012, especially if their Aunties and Grandmas make sure they show up. I don't buy that explanation but I can see a case for "Romney is more anti-amnesty than McCain so they'll vote in greater numbers." I suppose we'll have to see. This is a very big thing which we're going to have discuss seriously at some point. The fact is, we're running out of white people, and we have nothing but bad options for dealing with it. It's not that I'm anti-brown. Or anti-black. I'm anti-socialist. And both of these groups are much, much more in favor of socialistic government than white people. As the demographics shift more and more to groups which want more socialism, and less free market capitalism, we're going to have some problems. I am hoping that a successful Romney presidency could shift the patterns of, say, Latino thinking into a more limited-government, capitalist direction. But i'm not sanguine, and we're running out of presidencies where we can demonstrate this.

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 09:12 PM (LCRYB)

282 Poppycock on that Christie thing, the news people were giving the pollsters cover even before it made landfall with the being presidental storyline.  It did take Benghazi off the news though and that sucked.

Still, to me it just comes down to an incumbent tied in manipulated polls before the election usually loses.

I just can't believe people are going to stand in line for the status quo.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk says Mitt 303 to 235 at November 05, 2012 09:12 PM (PHb2k)

283 The one thing that people have not mentioned is the mid terms.

Do you think people are any less angry now than they were 2010?

The tea party has been quiet, but they are still there.

Posted by: shibumi at November 05, 2012 09:13 PM (z63Tr)

284 Christie turning his back on us for Obama? http://news.yahoo.com/nj-gov-christie-call-boss-made-weep-214532990.html

Posted by: Paul at November 05, 2012 09:13 PM (xwVUV)

285 GroverCleveland you seem to assume that one fact alone regarding certain demographic groups (college grads unemployed, black people more likely to oppose same-sex marriage) are determinative of how they vote. it's not really the case. Blacks have voted out of racial solidarity/the sense that they get more out of affirmative action etc. for a long time now.

Posted by: JDP at November 05, 2012 09:13 PM (8HhF2)

286 Does anyone know the name of the book about a Russian general--that instead of preparing his men for the attack that he knows is coming--decides to pray about it? His troops get slaughtered.

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 09:13 PM (r2PLg)

287

Yes,        The Ocean...thanks Cartman

Posted by: concrete girl at November 05, 2012 09:13 PM (y2Ojs)

288 "Yep, because their church-going Aunties and Grandmas are all about the gay marriage"

I actually hadn't thought about that. The pro gay Obama wasn't around in 2008. Damn, maybe there will be backlash among the black churches.

Posted by: txconservative at November 05, 2012 09:13 PM (5UMyr)

289 No amount of prognosticating can move this a whit. Try and get some sleep.

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 09:13 PM (NIZHJ)

290 275 Dixville Notch --- stage name for my exwife! Wasn't she part of that band "Tongue and Groove?"

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Barry will filch all the R keys at November 05, 2012 09:14 PM (AZGON)

291 BTW, did you catch what Rush called OBama's insane speech?  I think Obama's trying to run as Clinton's 3rd term.

Posted by: joeindc44 has a D+10 sample for you at November 05, 2012 09:15 PM (Z3ckx)

292 those seem to be safest for him, especially Colorado.

Posted by: ace at November 06, 2012 12:46 AM (LCRYB)


The high latino population gives me pause about this state.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 09:16 PM (zrpqj)

293 this whole "black turnout will be way down because of same-sex marriage" idea reminds me of when soft-on-immigration conservatives were explaining that Hispanics would become conservative in no time, cuz like, Catholicism and stuff. didn't really work out that way of course you can argue that it's really because the GOP have been meanies on immigration but the fact of the matter is they'll always be outbid on that by the Democrats, so even if we saw Amnesty II I've got my doubts about a massive Hispanic swing to Republicans

Posted by: JDP at November 05, 2012 09:16 PM (8HhF2)

294 Based on the economy, the cake has been baked for a long, long time... 2010 should happen again... The MSM has done its best to keep Jugears McFuckstick in the game, but there is no there there...  "You didn't build that" put the zip in Mitt's step, and the first debate made it OK to say, PUBLICLY, that you were voting for Romney...

The Obama magic is gone... he won't clear Kerry's 2004 vote total...

Example

Early voting for Travis County Texas (Austin - which went Obama 65/35 in 08.) was off 11.5% from 49% of registered voters who turned out to early vote in 2008... this differential is 63k votes, which is 20% greater than the number of votes Obama won Travis County in 2008... 


Posted by: Bill from Chappaqua at November 05, 2012 09:17 PM (MAhUT)

295 Google's Election Day doodle has the election tied...

Blue Ballots
11-7-5 = 23

Red Ballots
8-7-8 = 23


^^^
I should really go to bed now.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 09:17 PM (zrpqj)

296
you owe me a new keyboard...

...and a Pepsi...

...and sinuses.


****

Somebody here made a funny one day and I spit flaming hot cheetos through my nose.

It was a very unpleasant experience.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 09:17 PM (piMMO)

297 "it's not really the case." No, it actually is the case. Black church turnout in 2008 is what killed the gay marriage amendment in California.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 09:17 PM (LXKJo)

298 **282 >>>One reasonable answer, that goes against Romney, is that brown people didn't show up to vote in 2010 because their guy wasn't on the ticket. It could be that they'll all show up in 2012, especially if their Aunties and Grandmas make sure they show up.**

This is the thing.  For example, I've been harping on Michigan.  In 2010, it was 1.8 to 1.2 million for R republican.  There's only 2M registered voters left, and all the R would need is 700K to win the state.  Will the 2M remaining voters show up in such numbers against R to keep that from happening?  Not likely.

Posted by: joeindc44 has a D+10 sample for you at November 05, 2012 09:17 PM (Z3ckx)

299 Personally, I always thought that Thomas fibbed a bit.

I don't think he did what was claimed but I think some flirtation went on that Anita took too serious and did a Fatal Attraction bit on him. (with help of Nina Totenkopf.

So they both were lying same thing but different.

Facts are so difficult to come by when it's one on one.

Posted by: Jcw46 at November 05, 2012 09:18 PM (SP4jC)

300 "It's not that I'm anti-brown. Or anti-black. I'm anti-socialist. And both of these groups are much, much more in favor of socialistic government than white people"

I don't think it's a lost cause among Latinos. I live in Texas and we have plenty of Latino conservatives. And I heard an anecdote, I don't remember from who, maybe Ted Cruz, where he asked, "Have you ever seen a Latino pan handler? It's not in a Hispanics culture to ask for handouts." And thinking about it I think he's right.

Posted by: txconservative at November 05, 2012 09:18 PM (5UMyr)

301 299 that's an amendment, not a candidate.

Posted by: JDP at November 05, 2012 09:18 PM (8HhF2)

302 Clinton was elected twice. An unknown SCoaMF who was never vetted won. There is no predicting what that middle third will do. We'll know in about 21 hours.

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 09:19 PM (NIZHJ)

303 " so even if we saw Amnesty II I've got my doubts about a massive Hispanic swing to Republicans" The amount of support for amnesty among "Hispanics" is somewhat...overrated, especially among non-Mexicans (Puerto Ricans, Cubans, etc.), but even among legal Mexicans it's not quite as high as you'd think from the media.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 09:19 PM (LXKJo)

304 Excellent post, Ace!

And I'm off to bed now, to dream of a sea of red.

Posted by: Prothonotary Warbler (@ProthonotaryW) at November 05, 2012 09:20 PM (RLZvP)

305
My preference is landslide on Tuesday, impeachment on Wednesday, but I will take the 270 win with glee.

Despite all the other dictator crap he has done, this really is it to even have a dream of killing Obamacare. That must go.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk says Mitt 303 to 235 at November 05, 2012 09:20 PM (PHb2k)

306 303: it's not a candidate who favored gay marriage, though.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 09:20 PM (LXKJo)

307 Hart's Location went Obama 17-10 in 2008, so somewhat more Democrat this year.

Looking at the down ticket races - namely the house election, which mirrors the presidential vote I would say this is an outlier. Guinta will probably win, so presumably the vote here doesn't reflect the vote in NH as a whole.

Posted by: 18-1 at November 05, 2012 09:21 PM (AUeaU)

308 >>>I don't think it's a lost cause among Latinos. I live in Texas and we have plenty of Latino conservatives. And I heard an anecdote, I don't remember from who, maybe Ted Cruz, where he asked, "Have you ever seen a Latino pan handler? It's not in a Hispanics culture to ask for handouts." And thinking about it I think he's right. but aren't most Texas lationos either muti-generational or quickly guided by the standing latino population which is multi-generational? In other words, my problem is about so many Latinos coming here from socialist countries without any kind of Pause to let them assimilate into the American culture of limited government. I don't want arrivistes coming over here and voting for the socialism of their home countries.

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 09:21 PM (LCRYB)

309 308 well I'm not saying Obama won't lose anyone over this (although it'll probably be more of a "stay-home" proposition.) I just don't know that it'll have much effect in the states that matter.

Posted by: JDP at November 05, 2012 09:21 PM (8HhF2)

310 I have this vision of Axelrod and Messina burning the midnight oil tonight trying to figure out how to save PA. I look for a late lawsuit to keep the polls open as late as possible so PA's returns don't blow it all wide open early in the evening. That rally last night in Yardley was felt in Chicago, believe me. They scrambled Bill Clinton into Philly today and he did not fill the tiny Palestra on the UPenn campus.

Posted by: rockmom at November 05, 2012 09:22 PM (qe2/V)

311 I agree with you, especially about WI. Doesn't make sense.

I think that we have many, many more polls these days, but their fundamentals are getting less and less reflective of the truth. Sure, sometimes they score, but in any race of two, they are bound to hit once in a while.

Even since '08 how many people have dropped their land lines, and how many of those answer the phone during election season? The polls don't call cell phones. So year by year they get less and less accurate because their samples are inaccurate. And taking a whole mess of inaccurate polls for an average doesn't make it any better--you still get an average of bullshit.


Posted by: PJ at November 05, 2012 09:23 PM (DQHjw)

312 Have you ever seen a Latino pan handler? Hell, yes, in Mexico. But never in California.

Posted by: t-bird at November 05, 2012 09:23 PM (FcR7P)

313 <<I am hoping that a successful Romney presidency could shift the patterns of, say, Latino thinking into a more limited-government, capitalist direction.>>



I'm aware that this is a wet-blanket statement I'm about to make: but that's precisely what we were hoping for with Bush Jr.

I have never met a Latino who didn't share most of his/her values with the Republican Party - this includes illegal immigration issues - but vote Democrat because (insert Leftist propaganda here, which they will claim is the truth, and that's why they're voting Democrat), and their community leaders tell them to.

For reasons I cannot figure out, the Conservative message is not reaching the ears of a majority of the United States Latino population. We need to find a way to break that dam.

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 05, 2012 09:23 PM (qQVt2)

314 304-234  Romney.

Takes PA, MI, WI, CO and the ME dingleberry.

Bad guys take NV, OH, MN; IA goes down to the wire but the corn pimps sell out for corporate welfare.

Just a guess.




Posted by: JEM at November 05, 2012 09:24 PM (o+SC1)

315 Do pudding pies count? (The last time I had a pudding pie was during my AIT at Ft. Benj. Harrison back during the Cold War, you whippersnappers.)

Posted by: Leo Ladenson at November 05, 2012 09:24 PM (+Qbug)

316 <<Somebody here made a funny one day and I spit flaming hot cheetos through my nose.

It was a very unpleasant experience.>>

 Hell, that was just unpleasant to read (and imagine).

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 05, 2012 09:24 PM (qQVt2)

317 Obama has no business being re-elected under current conditions. Except for the screwy polls every single indicator...social, historical, economic...points to a Romney win. If Obama wins it will be truly historic. Much more so than in '08, when yet another Protestant white man was elected President (at least as accurate a description as first black President). But historic here is a value neutral term, a best. The re-election of Barack Obama will be indisputabe evidence that the United States of America has been transformed. No previous generation of Americans would have re-elected Obama. If he wins, he will be our generation's legacy.

Posted by: occam's brassiere at November 05, 2012 09:25 PM (JqOLy)

318 My family goes ape over those old Moon Pies. I never got that.

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 09:25 PM (NIZHJ)

319 306 And I'm off to bed now, to dream of a sea of red. No, blue. We really need to switch the colors back around. The Commiecrats are red, through and through. I'm totally serious. The MFM won't do it, so those of us in the blogosphere will have to.

Posted by: rickl at November 05, 2012 09:25 PM (sdi6R)

320 Not to mention that Rasmussen's partisan affiliation just bumped up the republicans to 39% of the voting population leaving the democrats in the dust at 33%. Independents are at 28%. He has been within 1 or right on the money for the 2004 and 2008 elections.

Posted by: NWConservative at November 05, 2012 09:25 PM (M1gmo)

321 My Parents just emailed me a picture of them dropping off their ballots in Oregon. This is the first time in 5 elections they've voted. Its been so long they didn't know they could vote by mail. What could motivate them to re-register, fill out ballots, walk down their steps in their walkers (no small task) and drive into town top drop off ballots so they could be sure they get in on time? Defeating JEF. I am so proud. I so hope Oregon goes red tomorrow.

Posted by: Mr. Feverhead at November 05, 2012 09:26 PM (SzAZ7)

322 353 for Romney, and 52.96% of national vote because that`s what my pen and pad came up with the old fashioned way.

Posted by: rightlysouthern(aim low boys,theys ridin ponies) at November 05, 2012 09:27 PM (VLwPl)

323

So Ace hit upon Dick Morris's reasoning.

My prediction is: beats me.  But if this is still America... Mitt will win.

If it is too late for America, he won't.

Either way, Mitt Romney is the best man to ever run for President.  And we need him.  But sometimes the bad guy wins.

Posted by: petunia at November 05, 2012 09:28 PM (DAcBA)

324 I do not understand what you are asking. For certainty about a thing which by its very nature is highly uncertain?

***

First off I LIKE YOU. Not like that. You're just cool.  I am not insulting you, but I will not stick my nose up your butt like some of your other fans.

Whether or not you believe it, you lead a team (some here think a cult, but that's creepy. You actually have a pack of dogs that attack when someone might say a less than flattering thing to you.). When the numbers are written, and whatever you might believe in has been weighed and expressed, what it comes down to is that there are a good number of people out there watching YOU for your response. This is because you decided to make your thoughts and opinions public for the world to see and dang it, you're really good at it. You have good insight and you know your stuff.

However, when it comes down to the wire, your message turns panicky and it radiates. Words matter, and you started the post with "The problem I have..." I can literally hear Debbie Downer reading that off. Meanwhile, many who read you but don't comment for fear of being lambasted by your cronies are thinking, "ERMEHGERHD! PERBLEMS?!? Ace thinks we have problems?!"

I get that you are considering all the numbers and facts, but frankly, at this point, they're not worth the electrons they're printed on. Unless Russia decides to fling a nuke at us tonight, there will be no changing the course of history tomorrow.

I know I'm old school when it comes to this, but Coach, it's game day, and we need to know if we have Joe Torre or Uncle Rico running the team. Pick an emotion. Go with it.

And yes, framing of your words matters. As of this second you have 181,599,652 pageviews. That's a massive number of people that visit your lil corner of the web, some of which might be coming for your site looking for a reason for vote for the right candidate, but all they see is "The problem I have..." and continue onto the next site.

"Romney's got this shit, and this is why..."

I'll be ripped apart for this by the horde, but free country and all. Rip away.

Not like they'll hurt my precious little girl feelings.

Posted by: mnm at November 05, 2012 09:28 PM (qQVt2)

325 PUDDING?

PORN?

CAN IT BE?

http://tinyurl.com/6b2muj2

TRUST ME!

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 05, 2012 09:28 PM (ovpNn)

326 The Romney people seem very confident about Ohio, if he wins Ohio it's over.

Posted by: Dr Spank at November 05, 2012 09:28 PM (4cRnj)

327 I just got back from seeing Romney (and Ann, and Kid Rock) live at the Verizon Wireless Center in Manchester, NH. Doors scheduled to open at 7:30, which is when I showed up with GS-son (14) and GS-daughter (13). The line of people waiting to get in already curled around the arena--it took us over two hours to work our way through the line and into the arean. We got in just in time to hear the local Scouts lead the pledge of allegiance and to hear the National Anthem sung. Capacity of the arena is about 12,000 and it was PACKED. During Romney's speech he mentioned his thanks and appreciation to the several thousand people who had to be left outside when the arena hit capacity, so it would seem the "crawl over glass crowd" was in full force. Romney gave his now familiar stump speech well, and powerfully, and without any apparent teleprompters. One new line I don't remember hearing before: Mitt mentions that if Obama gets a second term it will just be a repeat of the first time, then goes on to say "His campaign motto is 'Forward.' I call it 'Forewarned.' " Huge applause. The audience was energetic, sometimes extravagantly so--I heard at least one "FUCK OBAMA" loud enough to carry across the entire 12,000 person arean. I was seated on the second (of two) level, and an older man a few seats down from me was jumping up and down in such energetic agreement at every Romney speech line that I was in genuine fear that he was going to launch himself over the rail. Romney got a massive standing ovation at the close of his speech, even though I expect pretty much everybody in that audience had heard much of it on Fox many times before. GS-kids loved it--their first political rally, a big hit--even though (or maybe because) we didn't get home until 1AM. It stirred my own memories of going to hear Reagan speak when he was running for re-election in 1984 and I was a young college sophomore in upstate New York. Anyway, that's all I got. Personal prediction, Romney with 330+ EV. It's not even close. The polls are shit, for many of the reasons pointed out in this blog post. Also, America despises a loser, as illustrated by the Patton clip in the sidebar. And we love us a winner. Go R-R!

Posted by: Boston12GS at November 05, 2012 09:28 PM (iZ0BY)

328 320 My family goes ape over those old Moon Pies. I never got that.



Me neither. I generally avoid marshmallow-based desserts.

But back to pudding pies, it is possible to break one open wide enough to fit one's testes for a pudding bath therein. Would that comport with moron law?

Posted by: Leo Ladenson at November 05, 2012 09:28 PM (+Qbug)

329 <<In other words, my problem is about so many Latinos coming here from socialist countries without any kind of Pause to let them assimilate into the American culture of limited government.>>

I think it goes beyond being raised in Socialist environments to deeper facets of behavior, specifically Catholicism. Multiple generations of living your life doing exactly what the Church tells you to undergoes a process of transference in which political leaders become de facto priests.

That's not intended as a bash on Catholicism but rather an explanation of why the family/community would assume politics are just like their religion.

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 05, 2012 09:29 PM (qQVt2)

330 321 but red-blooded Americans! Republicans used to be more blue-blood, elite types, now that's more Democrats. I know that's not why the colors switched but it works for me

Posted by: JDP at November 05, 2012 09:29 PM (8HhF2)

331

http://tinyurl.com/bnwq8x9

I finally found a good site to view the NH rally of Mitt and Ann. I have to say, this is NOT the picture of a man and his wife who've been given bad news by their pollsters. 

Always look at the wife, but I have to say that even Mitt looks as if he's convinced that as long as there are no storms or earthquakes (please, God, no) he is going to win.

Now, maybe his pollster is wrong, but I repeat, this is not the look of a man and his wife who think they have put their lives on hold for two or more years to do this.

Saw John Sununu in the background after Mitt's speech, and he too looked like he knew something.

So, their pollsters are telling them it's all about just waiting for the turnout.

Turn out, people.  Work hard to turn out others....work hard to make up for the a-holes here in California who are lost.

And thank you, all of you, for your devotion and hard work.  I really mean it.

Posted by: gayle in California at November 05, 2012 09:30 PM (wgmUB)

332 328 not to get too Concern-y here but someone referenced the National Review conversation with Romney insiders upthread, and they did seem Concerned about Ohio no point handwringing when we'll find out soon enough though I guess.

Posted by: JDP at November 05, 2012 09:31 PM (8HhF2)

333 #329, just read your post.  As you were there, do you agree with me that he and his wife looked genuinely happy, as if they knew something?

Posted by: gayle in California at November 05, 2012 09:32 PM (wgmUB)

334 331 <> I think it goes beyond being raised in Socialist environments to deeper facets of behavior, specifically Catholicism. Multiple generations of living your life doing exactly what the Church tells you to undergoes a process of transference in which political leaders become de facto priests. That's not intended as a bash on Catholicism but rather an explanation of why the family/community would assume politics are just like their religion. Posted by: Sgt. York at November 06, 2012 01:29 AM (qQVt2) ________________ Heh--I know Pollacks like this. Chicago. The End. Hell the Italians.

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 09:33 PM (r2PLg)

335 <<I just got back from seeing Romney>>

Sweet!

<< (and Ann,>>

Cool!

<< and Kid Rock)>>

I'm sorry.

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 05, 2012 09:33 PM (qQVt2)

336 @ 282

Not all Hispanics are Brown.

Posted by: Mega at November 05, 2012 09:33 PM (idyso)

337 332 321 but red-blooded Americans! Republicans used to be more blue-blood, elite types, now that's more Democrats. I know that's not why the colors switched but it works for me Yeah, it bugs me, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Both red and blue are colors in the American flag, which predated the Communist flag.

Posted by: rickl at November 05, 2012 09:34 PM (sdi6R)

338 330 I'm afraid I can't help you there. I think a #10 can of pudding at Sam's Club is about $3-$4.

Posted by: Eric Cartman at November 05, 2012 09:34 PM (NIZHJ)

339 <<Not like they'll hurt my precious little girl feelings.>>


BZZZZSZZZZZZT!

Illegal use of the gender card!

Touchdown Seahawks!

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 05, 2012 09:34 PM (qQVt2)

340 319
Posted by: occam's brassiere at November 06, 2012 01:25 AM (JqOLy)
 
-----
 
You're absolutely right. As much as the polls (kind of ) worry me, it will truly be historic if Obama is reelected under current conditions. If that's the case, we have more to worry about than simply 4 more years of Obama. We will have collectively decided that, as a society, that we no longer want to be an exceptional country, but just another quasi-socialist welfare state with high unemployment and weak economic growth.
 
Is this what the majority of American's want? We'll see tomorrow, I guess.

Posted by: Mullaney at November 05, 2012 09:34 PM (s8XaI)

341 >>>People are freaking out over one county? Did you not see the electricity in that NH rally? Wicked. Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 06, 2012 No one is actually freaking out over the results in one tiny hamlet. It's a joke, to relieve the tension, to pretend to take it seriously.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 05, 2012 09:34 PM (Db+Gl)

342 321 No, blue. We really need to switch the colors back around. The Commiecrats are red, through and through.

I'm totally serious. The MFM won't do it, so those of us in the blogosphere will have to.

------------------------------------------

Mark Helprin made a great case for the switch in the WSJ during the summer:

http://tinyurl.com/9fmwdh5

Posted by: Leo Ladenson at November 05, 2012 09:35 PM (+Qbug)

343 #255 Thanks that is Led Zeppelin "The Ocean"

Posted by: War69.com at November 05, 2012 09:36 PM (ayPhb)

344 Hell, that was just unpleasant to read (and imagine).


****

I was typing and all that came out was: OMG!OMG!OMG!OMG!OMG!

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 09:36 PM (piMMO)

345 No one is actually freaking out over the results in one tiny hamlet. It's a joke, to relieve the tension, to pretend to take it seriously. Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 01:34 AM (Db+Gl) ____________ Bingo!

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 09:36 PM (r2PLg)

346 I hope you are correct Ace with your projections. The +11D, +8D should not even be reported as polls, much less news. But they are. My thought is they know it is going to be a landslide (I think Barone is dead on)

Posted by: Barnes at November 05, 2012 09:36 PM (6JULv)

347 And don't get me started on those Micks! Although I would have to denounce almost half of myself.

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 09:38 PM (r2PLg)

348 @ 310 ace

Most Europeans came from Socialist/Statist countries as well. No offense, you don't know what you are talking about.

Posted by: Mega at November 05, 2012 09:38 PM (idyso)

349 Shadoobie.

Posted by: Mick at November 05, 2012 09:39 PM (NIZHJ)

350 I got it 540 Romney, 0 for JEF. I rounded up a couple of points for my vig.

Posted by: Bernie Madoff's Accountant at November 05, 2012 09:41 PM (m50qE)

351 @ 331 bSgt. York

Italians are culturally close to Hispanics and many of them are Conservative now.

Posted by: Mega at November 05, 2012 09:41 PM (idyso)

352 I noticed somebody did a long comment up there as I scrolled by it.  Hope it wasn't important.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk says Mitt 303 to 235 at November 05, 2012 09:42 PM (PHb2k)

353 "A rule Pelle Nilsson told me--probably didn't originate with him, but Ace would know that name--has served me well on the Internet: 'Be most skeptical of that which you wish to believe.' " I believe I'm typing a comment right now, and not only do I believe that, I believe what I'm doing here is, in fact, impossible to refute.

Posted by: Texas Ranger at November 05, 2012 09:42 PM (IvvrO)

354 Forgot to mention in my earlier post about seeing Romney at the Manchester rally, but I had half expected the guy to be totally exhausted. I even cautioned my kids not to expect too much, the guy is 65 years old, he's been campaigning for months, he'll already have done multiple rallies THIS DAY ALONE in disparate states. What we saw was a calm and energetic President. No sign of weariness, no sign of even being close to being out of gas. Sleeves rolled up on his forearms, ready to work, even at 11PM, his voice was strong and firm, none of Clinton's hoarseness or Obama's petulant squeakiness. Romney's was a presence that strongly suggested confidence, calmness, competence. Sure, it's been a rough road to get here, and sure we have a lot of hard work ahead of us, but THIS particular critical battle (the election) is within our grasp. (As for the Kid Rock stuff, I don't know much about him, and the acoustics in the arena were so bad for music--and my hearing so impaired form a lifetime of not-always-protected-against gun fire--that I couldn't really hear a thing he was singing. The crowd seemed to like it, though.)

Posted by: Boston12GS at November 05, 2012 09:44 PM (iZ0BY)

355 <<As for the Kid Rock stuff, I don't know much about him, and the acoustics in the arena were so bad for music>>

Nope...that's how he sounds.

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 05, 2012 09:45 PM (qQVt2)

356 I was pretty calm until this weekend, explaining to anyone who would listen that this was very similar to the election of 1980. I still think that but over the weekend I started feeling some nerves and tonight I started having the same feeling I'd get before a big test in school. However, I live in Canada, I think if I was home and looking forward to an election-night party, I might not feel this way. Oh, and I am getting big news from the doctor so that might have something to do with my nerves too ... maybe ... Think Romney will win in the 320s - totally freaks out my neighbors!

Posted by: Meg Lakowski at November 05, 2012 09:45 PM (00ERW)

357 338 @ 282

Not all Hispanics are Brown.

Posted by: Mega at November 06, 2012 01:33 AM (idyso)


True, lets not forget about the "White" Hispanics that were discovered this year who go around indiscriminately shooting black kids...or so ABC news tells me.

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 05, 2012 09:46 PM (ovpNn)

358 I wonder how many times they have to get obamy up with a hot shot now. " Damnit get up prop, you have to give a speech". (I`m talking cattle prod).

Posted by: rightlysouthern(aim low boys,theys ridin ponies) at November 05, 2012 09:49 PM (VLwPl)

359
Congratulations on your news there Meg.  Good luck.

ps- I had to keep reminding myself of the pravda we have here everytime I started to fade a little bit.  I think were good for tomorrow and a victory speech at about 11 pm est.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk says Mitt 303 to 235 at November 05, 2012 09:50 PM (PHb2k)

360 I think you're right on with your analysis ace. I think most of us that remember 2010 as it actually unfolded learned a lesson or two about believing our own over optimistic BS. It's one thing to talk up your prospects as a means of keeping others, particularly those not immersed in the shit of politics, motivated and happy. It's quite another to get high on your own supply. I've had to give several pep talks today, going over the fundamentals of why our chances tomorrow are excellent. They aren't lies or self delusion or simply some strategem being employed. The comedown from a falsely optimistic view is harder than the prepared mindset. I will not do that since my mental being is unstable enough. I know we are prepped and mostly ready. We know tomorrow will be tough at times, unforeseen stressors will emerge. We'll get that sick feeling but it will pass as positive info comes in. The fundamentals and history are on our side. In the end the SCOAMF will almost certainly fall and we'll have taken the first of the absolutely necessary steps. Thanks for all you and the co-buggers do ace. You are all patriots in your own various and demented ways. I say that with true affection!

Posted by: Wonkish Rogue at November 05, 2012 09:55 PM (JRU+g)

361 Ace, once again, thank you for your hard work and honesty. Hopefully in the next few days we can have some crazy happy threads and Winston Wolf will finally have his happy ending.


 

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at November 05, 2012 10:00 PM (yJYwC)

362 I agree that the polls aren't making sense.  Some show a slight Romney win and others go for The One.  I don't see how close or tied polls point to an Obama win if they're correct.  But if the Obama is ahead polls are right and we see a D+4, +5, or +6 turnout or more tomorrow then there's really nothing Mitt or we or anyone could have done to make it different.  It will mean that 2010 was an outlier.  It will mean that America really likes this mess we're in.  Because now it's not about fancy hope and change rhetoric.  It's about the shape this country is in right now.  If tomorrow America says, "Hey, current conditions and bitter rhetoric, and free birth control for all is cool" then we at least know the trajectory of our country's future. That's a frightening thought. 

Posted by: ilrndude at November 05, 2012 10:03 PM (aUnng)

363 332 321

but red-blooded Americans! Republicans used to be more blue-blood, elite types, now that's more Democrats.

I know that's not why the colors switched but it works for me

Posted by: JDP at November 06, 2012 01:29 AM (8HhF2)



=========


I always thought it was an instinctual bias on the part of the graphics people in the MSM. Visually red reads as danger, warning, etc; filling in the areas with red is like the spreading of an infection Whereas blue is soothing and comforting, the part where "god's in his heaven and all's right with the world".

Posted by: sistrum at November 05, 2012 10:08 PM (SUlmX)

364 I was just thinking today about the word Providence (definition):
 
God conceived as the power sustaining and guiding human destiny.
 
and I don't buy it. I think that it is our actions, here and now, that describe the possible futures. I see a future of socialism, islamization, authoritarianism, and general decay with the nearly sole exception of the USA standing like a tall rock in a swift running stream. Can we resist the erosion when no one else seems to be able to?
 
A big part of the answer will be delivered today. But the pressure of erosion is constant vigilance will still be required.
 
Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children's children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.
 
Ronald Reagan

Posted by: GnuBreed at November 05, 2012 10:24 PM (ccXZP)

365 Me likey your map ACE - you are the *only* one I've seen/heard say NV for R/R!

Posted by: Amy Shulkusky at November 05, 2012 10:27 PM (uMfFZ)

366 #331.  Actually many Hispanics are poorly catechized in their nominal religion, which explains why they often vote for politicians who see abortion as a secular sacrament.  Those socialist governments in Latin America tend to see the Catholic Church as rival political power and are often anti-clerical.    The Mexican government has been particularly hostile over the years.   As a result many immigrants are poorly educated about the religious as opposed to the cultural parts of their Catholic heritage.  

A pattern we see in my parish is that many Mexican parents will stop bringing the family to Mass once the youngest child receives First Communion, a social milestone often celebrated with a big party. Instead of First Communion marking the real beginning of serious catechesis it becomes a graduation ceremony. A religious education that stops at age 7 or 8 isn't much of an education.

Posted by: NC Mountain Girl at November 05, 2012 10:50 PM (p4hZU)

367 I was watching a Milton Friedman video yesterday. The sobering thought hit me: it's not too absurd to imagine a future in which free-market ideas are but distant or denounced (or even racist) memories. In an environment where "halve the deficit" is equivalent to doubling it, any number of wrongs are possible. I have no idea what will happen tomorrow. I can only hope that the ability of the media to distort what others can perceive is much overestimated. At least, being in CA, if the republic is to perish, I'll certainly have front row seats.

Posted by: Kevin at November 05, 2012 10:51 PM (F2bKl)

368 I noticed all four of Minnesota's Republican Congresscritters were at the Ryan rally instead of campaigning in their own districts on Sunday.  That tells me they see the association with the R-R campaign as a plus with the voters, even Chip Cravaack who is in a tight race in the Democrat 8th District. 

How many Democrats running for office are flocking to be seen with Obama?   I don't know the answer but I suspect it is pretty good indicator of what the internal polls show. 

Posted by: NC Mountain Girl at November 05, 2012 10:55 PM (p4hZU)

369 Thanks Ace. You guys made the last four years bearable. It may be time for a renewal or the middle third may need more convincing. I do know that the shift toward actually implementing socialism in the democrat party has made it impossible to talk any politics with members of my family in Ohio. I can't shake the feeling that THIS is what the US must have felt like in the 1850s, when the things that divide us overwhelm our national identity. If we are not there yet it seems that we are very close tonight.

Posted by: conservative shrug at November 05, 2012 11:03 PM (CQnxh)

370

 

Quin Hillyer, the Oracle of Mobile, calls it for Romney. Hillyer's specialty is congress, and he says 50-50 in the Senate. 

Posted by: Meremortal at November 05, 2012 11:12 PM (1Y+hH)

371 My final thoughts, humbly shared here. (Real name: Michael Christian Knudsen.) My Final Thoughts on the 2012 Election Four years ago, after Barack Obama was elected, I gave him every benefit of the doubt. I wanted to believe that he could be any semblance of the centrist, uniting figure he professed at times to be (during his teleprompter speeches, to be sure, not when he was speaking honestly off the cuff). Mr. Obama has been fifty times worse than I ever allowed myself to imagine. He has expanded the federal government's power and control beyond any semblance of reasonableness (to the point where, if in 2014, Obamacare remains on the books as is, I will, for the first time in my adult life, willfully defy a government directive; I will not cooperate with the insurance mandate nor its reporting requirements). He has saddled my children, and my children's children, with crushing, catastrophic, unsustainable debt, for no benefit whatsoever (indeed, the Feds can't even protect an ambassador, expand our Navy, nor help hurricane victims; all that massive spending was for pure political patronage...and real-world impotence). GM and Chrysler were "saved" by the government, at the expense of the non-union workers, in a mockery of bankruptcy law that made permanent their insolvency (Chrysler is no longer an American company, and GM will need to be "saved" again). The Federal Government is now the only game in town for student loans. Coal-fired plants are having to shut down left and right due to an out-of-control EPA. Obama won't let us drill for oil on federal land, but has the gall to tout the expansion of drilling on private lands. The Keystone Pipeline has been blocked. What Obama could not "achieve" via the Constitutional lawmaking process (cap and trade, the DREAM Act, gutting welfare reform), he has simply instituted via executive fiat. Indeed, he has discarded entirely any of the lawful restraints on the office that he holds, ordering troops to Libya without Congressional approval, and deciding when and how Congress can be considered to be "in recess.” And in the most brazen act of cowardice and betrayal, Mr. Obama apparently stood by and watched as four Americans were murdered in Benghazi (for political gain). Obama couldn't look a father in the eye whose son he had watched get murdered. He took a grieving mother in his arms, promising her that he would “get to the bottom” of what happened....and then utterly ignored the madam once she longer presented a good photo op. Mr. Obama and his Secretary of State then lied to the American people, and furthermore, apologized to the Muslim world for the First Amendment that Americans hold so dear. This President then spat upon said freedom by arresting a filmmaker on some trumped up "parole violation," certainly one that didn't require a visit by federal agents in the middle of the night with the news cameras rolling. He has thus taken a man prisoner for political benefit, i.e. a political prisoner. We haven't had one of those in generations. And, Obama sacrificed untold American and Mexican lives, including that of Border Patrol Agent Brian Terry, for an apparent gunwalking scheme designed to give a pretext for the undermining of our Second Amendment. When the opportunity to come clean with the American people arose, Obama declared “Executive Privilege,” and his Attorney General was held in contempt of Congress. And let's not forget, Obama told Vladimir Putin to be patient; our president would have more “flexibility” on missile defense....after the election. Mr. Obama, to be sure, is not the first command-and control “progressive” president; he is merely its latest manifestation (from a movement that has been constant, unyielding, patient, and inevitable, in expanding government power throughout the past hundred years). But Barack has moved the ball for his cause forward, in ways which Wilson, Johnson, and even FDR could have only dreamed of, to the country's ultimate detriment. Mr. Obama has been the most craven, the most childish, the most brazen, the most contemptible, the least presidential, and the most attention-whoring man ever to hold the Executive Office. I don't want a President who campaigned as a "uniter," but holds people like me, i.e. political opposition, in far more contempt than he ever holds a foreign enemy of the United States. I don't want a president who claimed to "hear my voice" and "need my help" in his victory speech, but then turned right around and said "I won," told a friendly audience to "punish" their enemies (that would be me), and this past week told another rally that theirs is a vote for revenge. I don't want a president who makes a mockery of his office by giving more time to The Daily Show and The View than he does to the White House Press Corps (indeed, this apparent new tradition of the president behaving no differently than the average run-of-the-mill no-name senator, being the "Celebrity in Chief" on late night talk shows...may this end with Obama; it's a joke, and not a funny one). Obama has rarely, if ever, been honest about his true agenda, for if he were, he would not have garnered one single vote. He doesn't believe in that “rugged, American spirit.” If he did, he would trust me to manage my own health care decisions. And I don't want a president who abandons our allies (be it Israel or the Pakistani doctor who helped us find Bin Laden), looks away as an Ambassador and heroic Navy Seals are killed, and is so desperate to play politics with everything that he couldn't wait to spike the Bin Laden football (immediately rendering useless any intelligence that we may have recovered from the terrorist's compound). "You didn't build that"...... THAT'S the real Obama. Everything starts and ends with government, the collective (with Mr. Obama, of course, as the only remaining individual, pulling everyone's puppet strings). None of the past four years have been fun. Nothing of feeling this way about one's president is fun. And unlike the leftists who despised President Bush, I despise Mr. Obama for what he does and how he acts...not for what he looks like, how he speaks, nor where he comes from (and, to be sure, I would never sanction a film about his assassination, unlike our pals on the left). If I had been wrong about Obama four years ago, no one would have been happier than I. I was not wrong. (And no, the “where he comes from” bit wasn't a hint that I think Obama was born in Kenya. That's a marginalized, non-issue politically unless and until someone ever produces incontrovertible proof that Mr. Obama was not born in these United States. It is utterly beside the point at this juncture.) Sadly, I'm not sure if all Americans realize what's in store for them in a second Obama term....or if they are aware, it truly frightens me that they embrace it. How one could look objectively at the persistent, soul-crushing misery brought upon their fellow citizens by unemployment as it currently stands (and has remained for four years), yet not wish a change....I do not know. How one could envision the IRS fining you for not purchasing the health insurance that the government MANDATES you to have (the cost of the same having increased dramatically due to further government dictates)....how one can know that this is coming, and NOT be outraged, appalled, and terrified, I do not know. How one could watch as the EPA, the IRS, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, the Independent Payment Advisory Board, and all the rest, issue rule after rule after regulation after mandate after fine after penalty with no control, consent, nor input from the citizenry...how one could bear witness to the same and not be disgusted by the societal destruction left behind in the wake of their arbitrary, nonsensical, life and livelihood destroying demands....I do not know. Mr. Romney, for whatever his faults (he is by no means anyone's doctrinaire conservative), is a kind and generous man, has argued eloquently for limited government in this campaign, and through his VP selection of Paul Ryan, has signaled that he is more than willing to address at least one of the two top issues of this generation: our crushing debt. (The monstrous federal bureaucracy is the other issue, by the way.) Paul Ryan is the only pol in Washington who has attempted to address this problem with any seriousness whatsoever. The rest are either complicit in the problem, going along merely to get along (sadly, George Bush and the Congressional Republicans who lost their majority fall into this category), wanting only to tell the public what it wants to hear (all about Uncle Sam's goodies, never about their cost), or....they are following the Cloward-Piven strategy of willfully invoking doom to our financial system. Whichever of the latter two categories Obama falls into (blind naive ideology or deliberate ruination), only he knows. The question, in the end, is irrelevant. There is a tangible toll in human suffering to one Barack Obama in power, and it cannot be allowed to continue. Mitt Romney is hardly the perfect blueprint of the unshakeable political will (from conservatism) that needs to be summoned at this hour. But, the primaries are over (and the alternative candidates were also each very flawed). In a choice between Romney and Obama, there is no choice. Mr. Romney has asked for this opportunity, and the American people, tomorrow, shall give his candidacy its final hearing. Should Mr. Romney be elected, he will face perhaps the most difficult test of any president in our time: he will be charged with turning back the expansion of the leviathan state. If he succeeds in repealing Obamacare nor any other Obama-era law, let alone in bringing reform to Social Security and Medicare (one day, we will be talking about their elimination, not their reform)....Romney will have accomplished what no other modern politician, not even Reagan, was able to do: turn back the growth of government. Our Republic, and our Constitution as it is currently (mis-)applied, so incentivizes the power of the state to grow, as to make a turning back point somewhat of a miracle. We are potentially facing dark times, regardless of tomorrow's outcome. Generations from now, our descendants will care not for Big Bird and “binders full of women” and Seamus the Dog and all the rest of the nonsense. They will know whether our nation decided collectively to face our fiscal calamity as adults....or if we decided to stay in the unsustainable Wonderland, where the state provides all for the favored, stifles the freedom of the rest, and creates the line of demarcation between itself and the citizen so faintly as to be not cognizable. And if the latter should hold true, the children of tomorrow will rightly curse our names. Methinks the American idea will live on, regardless. But very difficult years are on the way if we do not change course. Now. As we are tragically seeing right now with Hurricane Sandy's aftermath, a government that can dictate your purchase of soda cannot come to your aid when the floods come. It can mico-manage your daily activities. But it cannot protect your freedom, your person, your livelihood, or, in the end, your life. That which cannot continue, won't. I pray tomorrow for a change to a better path.

Posted by: Hawkins1701 at November 05, 2012 11:20 PM (MRcfR)

372 Ace - I hope you're right. I do. But right now I see it Obama 281-257, with Obama winning Ohio and Pennsylvania. Just a layman's prediction that I hope is way off. We'll find out soon enough.

Posted by: GEAUX at November 05, 2012 11:38 PM (NZ+iq)

373 I think we'll take it. It'll be close. Even if you take away NV (Which I'm hopeful on) it's still there. http://tinyurl.com/d2ly2pd If he does go down. Its gonna be epic. He will be more whiny and bitter than Carter.

Posted by: Zakn at November 06, 2012 12:01 AM (LbwgI)

374 A couple things. One, this post was funny. Which is an accomplishment, because it was also fact-rich and serious. Two, it was fact-rich and well-argued. I -- perhaps because I was overoptimistic in the last three consecutive elections -- don't think Ace's EV prediction is likely (Nevada? The others maybe, but I really doubt Nevada). However, even if I don't buy the top-line conclusion, I agreed with the thinking on all the points made. So could be.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 12:20 AM (Db+Gl)

375 >>>Ace - I hope you're right. I do. But right now I see it Obama 281-257, with Obama winning Ohio and Pennsylvania. Just a layman's prediction that I hope is way off. We'll find out soon enough. My final final prediction will be in accordance with the above, with Romney winning the PV margin by 2%.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 12:22 AM (Db+Gl)

376 Hawkins, You can't see it, but I'm giving you a standing ovation. Bravo!

Posted by: Icedog at November 06, 2012 12:23 AM (9ScGj)

377 Oh wait, I was lazy, and tired, when I read the above, and concurring with it incoherrent. I didn't check out the EV numbers, nor did I even notice it was a prediction for Obama. Silly me. I just don't care at this point to calculate the EVs (maybe I'll get motivated and do it a little later tonight), but I predict a 2% PV margin in favor of Romney, and I predict he wins both Ohio and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but not some of the other states Ace thinks he'll win, such as Nevada.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 12:27 AM (Db+Gl)

378 Alright, here's my prediction map: http://goo.gl/l6jSI Romney win by 2% in PV, 307-231 in EV.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 12:35 AM (Db+Gl)

379 This could be a dead thread by now. Why not post anyway...I mean...tomorrow? Who would listen? Better to post to a dead thread now. The National and State polls actually aren't that different and don't have to be. It's entirely possibly Romney could win the popular vote by less than two points, and, win, say...PA...and OH...and WI...and even MI and/or MN. A lot of these "battlegrounds" are going to be two or three points. Just like the nationals. The great FDR (I kid the blog) got 432 EV w/ only a 7% spread in 1944. What you really have to look at is how the D+11 or 7 or 6 or even 4 are bullshit. Could 4 happen? Yeah. But not really. Could 6? I'd have to say no. Not ever. Is it going to be something close to even? Probably. Also, O is looking like he is going to lose the White Vote by more than 60/40. The last time that happened was in '84, so why shouldn't some States that haven't been in play for decades come back? Not judging him ideologically (e.g., not taking his SCOTUS Justices into account) O hasn't been entirely bad. He's done well on certain things. I think he did build consensus on the START Treaty and DADT repeal. Unfortunately for O (and us), he's failed on the three most important issues...Healthcare, Deficit/Debt, Positive Economic Environment for Job Growth. Romney wins on at least two-out-of-three of those. Romney will win the Election (IMO). The Popular Vote is the key. If you win by under a point, there's a 70% or so chance you'll win the EC. If you win by over a point, it goes 90%+. Over two points, and it goes to virtually 100%. If betters in Vegas or on InTrade knew that...the betting lines would look a lot different. But they don't. Virtually everyone who thinks he's smart says at some point "we all know the popular vote doesn't matter". And they are arrogant in this. I've explained (because it was explained to me) why the PV, in fact, matters very much. So we'll see... BTW, the pollsters are going to escape by saying "2008 was D+7, that was the last Presidential election year". That'll be their out. Who cares? In ten years the MSM will be junk. In 20 people won't even know what you're talking about...Brian Williams, he won a hotdog eating contest or something, right?...like the Record industry, from 1992-2012. Was here...then it wasn't. The fact that Sandy's Bounce had started to fade showed up over the weekend. So those polls from say, Tues to Fri? Not much good. He can't escape the fact that he sucks. O, I mean. No one can.

Posted by: trickamsterdam at November 06, 2012 12:52 AM (uTBHY)

380 >>>Posted by: trickamsterdam at November 06, 2012 04:52 AM Makes sense, although I don't give Obama quite that much credit, especially on the relationship with the Russians.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 12:57 AM (Db+Gl)

381 >>> Honestly, if you don't think we could *possibly* lose, and you've got a problem with people broaching that as a mere possibility... I don't know what to tell you. >>> Obviously you DO feel we could lose, otherwise you wouldn't be so upset by my mere mention of that scenario. >>> My feelings on the election's outcome vary with data. I don't know how it could be otherwise, except to give in to a sort of thinking I don't like. A simultaneous "This" and "Tell me about it."

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 01:00 AM (Db+Gl)

382 "...and 2008's Democratic plurality grew by leaps and bounds."

There isn't ANY metric that validates such claims by those "in the know." No effin' way. It's yet another Big Lie to subvert truth and facts. Just like Wasserman-Shultz saying Romney didn't mention Israel in the second or third (I forget which but the video record proves he mentioned Israel 14 times!) or Team Obama and their countless Benghazi failures, these people have absolutely no reservations about bald-faced lying.

Ignore the claims. They're hacks. Remember who perpetuates the lies and never give them credence again. Let's call it a JournOlist Blacklist. Do not watch their segments. Do not tune in to their shows. Do not read their commentary. Do not support their sponsors. There needs to be a cleaning and purging of the liars and frauds in our midst. It should've begun long ago. Let it begin now under a Romney/Ryan White House.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at November 06, 2012 01:10 AM (eHIJJ)

383 "Makes sense, although I don't give Obama quite that much credit, especially on the relationship with the Russians." Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 04:57 AM (Db+Gl) Sam, if you're talking about FDR's relationship w/ Uncle Joe Stalin, I'd have to say it would be hard to fail more that FDR. Could O fail more? Yeah. But he'd really have to work at it. PS- For what it's worth, I don't think you're a troll. I just think you're a Libertarian. Take it easy. I'm gonna crash. Then walk up and vote, etc etc etc. Do Libertarians actually sleep, btw? I'd think counting the sheep would be totally meta.

Posted by: trickamsterdam at November 06, 2012 01:17 AM (uTBHY)

384 For what it's worth, which is zero, I'm guessing the floor for Romney is around 296, with the absolute ceiling maybe 30 more.  I'd love to be wrong about the ceiling.  I've been following the Lightbringer since his first big convention speech, and like many morons, I've been aware of who he really is since well before November '08.  The last four years have only helped the less-obsessed pierce the veil of media gloss and see the man himself through his actions, which have been so often in direct conflict with his words.  Tomorrow is set to be a day of repudiation, and I will rejoice with you all.  If I'm wrong, I'm going to crawl into a case of Scotch for a minute.  If I'm right, we'll have completed step one.  I look forward to holding President Romney's feet to the fire as we roll back the last four, and even twelve or twenty-four years.  To unwind the insidious progressive "victories" of the 20th century will require a generation-long effort and constant vigilance.

Posted by: StPatrick_TN at November 06, 2012 01:35 AM (lJJMb)

385 According to the map that Ace linked to, MA has 11 electoral votes but due to the population declining, we now only have 9 electoral votes. Given that we're probably blue, that's good for Romney!

Posted by: Lynne at November 06, 2012 01:37 AM (coNWF)

386 Trickamsterdam, good comments, but "concurrence on DADT" is a bit generous....

Posted by: Icedog at November 06, 2012 01:39 AM (9ScGj)

387 Ugh, I can't confirm that we have 9 electoral votes. They said 9 on WBZ but everything I've seen online still says 11...

Posted by: Lynne at November 06, 2012 01:44 AM (coNWF)

388 When Romney wins, the instant gratification for me will be the wailing, caterwauling and gnashing of teeth by the left and the media. I love liberal tears. I plan to bottle some of that bittersweet angst, let it age and bring it out on special occasions for a sip or two. I'm going on every media site and rub their collective noses in that doo-doo, letting them know what "Obama lickspittles" they have become (While yelling....."Bad Dog!"). The Press truly has descended to mere Obama toady level. I guess the Press will try to spin it as "they had inaccurate polling data", but I am going to hold their feet to the fire on this one. It's good practice for what we will have to with Romney and RINO's in Congress. It's the quiet before the storm. Lock and load, start your engines, and let loose the Dogs of War. Election time is upon us! Feel that electricity, the static tingle in the air, the hair raising up on your arms? I haven't felt like this since Christmas more than half a century ago. I have been a very good boy this year and can't wait to open my special gift from Santa EARLY.....The commemorative , limited edition of the Red Ryder "NoBama in 2013!" BB Rifle" Woo Hooo!

Posted by: Judge Roy Bean at November 06, 2012 01:47 AM (JwwM6)

389

I'm sick as a dog today - but I'll still drag my butt to the polls this morning. I hope I will feel much better at the end of what will be a very long day.

 What I fear most -huma

n stupidity and irrationality. Yes, as Ace says, there is no rational reason to vote for Obama. And yet I know people who will and they're not the "I wanna free cell phone" crowd. Some are professionals who will vote against their best interests because they went gaga over Teh One in '08 and are too stubborn to admit they got it wrong. Then there are the women voting their vajayjays and the low info Honey Boo Boos who think King Putt sure looked great in that bomber jacket.

 

 I hope - and feel in my gut - that the imbeciles will not carry the day. (And, as a cheesehead, I think Ace is right about WI). The fact that there are so many of them out there, though, must have the Founding Fathers spinning in their graves.

Posted by: Donna V. at November 06, 2012 01:54 AM (7OHl8)

390

" The sobering thought hit me: it's not too absurd to imagine a future in which free-market ideas are but distant or denounced (or even racist) memories. In an environment where "halve the deficit" is equivalent to doubling it, any number of wrongs are possible."

 

No matter what happens today, socialism will lose in the end, because it always does. I want to see us turn away before we hit the wall. But if we don't eventually the Dems will run out of other people's money.

Posted by: Donna V. at November 06, 2012 02:02 AM (7OHl8)

391 Sandy photo op bounce for Barry Bounel my ass. what bullshit. sounds like Faux news talking Ace

Posted by: Ringo at November 06, 2012 02:40 AM (dQ/Oc)

392 >>> No matter what happens today, socialism will lose in the end, because it always does. I would like to agree with this, but I do not. The main culprit is technology. I don't want to get into the details of this theory right now. Everyone would hate it anyway. I don't like it myself.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 02:41 AM (SKX2R)

393 One problem with Ace's WI scenario. I have been working there for a year now, Many FIB's moved to WI planting the Commie seed. for all you morons, FIB = Fucking Illinois Bastard

Posted by: Ringo at November 06, 2012 02:48 AM (dQ/Oc)

394 My Scenario , Mitt Takes the Mc Cain states plus NC, VI, NH, PA, Fla declares victory, pop champagne cork. the end.

Posted by: Ringo at November 06, 2012 02:56 AM (dQ/Oc)

395

my problem with Ace's analysis:

Only the motivated vote in the midterms.

The GOP was motivated.

Obama-heads, the poor, the disinterested didn't take part in the "repudiation" but now the Obama machine is out there saying "the rich white man is going to take your government money away, they're going to take away abortion, they're going to screw the black man, we need you right now." 

In 2010 it was a half assed, lazy attempt to protect Obamacare, and the Obama team was either too cocky thinking they'd hold (see "I won the first debate") or they knew the GOP wouldn't take over the Senate so they couldn't repeal.

Posted by: Hawkins at November 06, 2012 02:59 AM (DuTGc)

396

Man, I hope you're right, Ace.  Living in NE Ohio, I don't see O losing the state.  Sure there are plenty of R signs on lawns, but the vibe I get is that O will win handily.  And without OH, R has little chance of pulling this off.

I see O winning about 300 electoral college votes.  Well under his 2008 total, but still an easy win.  As you can imagine, I'm pretty down.

I'm voting later in the day so it will be interesting to see how crowded the polling booths are.  Crowded in my area = good for R.

Posted by: Pigilito at November 06, 2012 03:10 AM (yw6Yn)

397 HEY!

1. The lame stream media is in the pocket of O. How come you people believe any poll conducted by them?
2. For the last 4 elections the polls by the lame stream media have been wrong and skewed to support their progressive agendas and have been called out for that on conservative talk media.
Get a grip.

Posted by: Gitagrip at November 06, 2012 03:25 AM (FmyWU)

398

"Many FIB's moved to WI planting the Commie seed."

 

And yet Walker still won in June.

Posted by: Donna V. at November 06, 2012 03:28 AM (7OHl8)

399 Just finished voting in at my polling place. Fingers crossed that Ace's prediction is spot on. I'm in swing-state of NC.

Posted by: Poolboy at November 06, 2012 03:38 AM (x7byD)

400 This is absolutely the most cogent piece of analysis I have read- and I mean that sincerely.

My problem has always been this broad assumption that 2010 was some kind of fluke. It's as if it never happened. But those people have not gone away- in fact they are more motivated than ever.

One off-cycle election certainly does not automatically transfer statistically to a general election. But the feelings and motivation usually remain- unless there is something monumental which changes them.

There has been nothing in the last two years to change our situation- in fact it has gotten worse. There is also nothing on the horizon or planning table to suggest it will change. People get that and will vote for what they feel is existential to their well being.

Advantage Romney. At least 51%

Posted by: marcus at November 06, 2012 03:41 AM (GGCsk)

401

Off to vote in Milwaukee - in my case, I hope the lines are NOT long.

 

Oh, and while I think RR will win the state, I don't think it will be by the margin Walker won the recall election. One, the college idiots are back in WI now and two, a certain number of Dems who voted for Walker in the recall because they were against the recall in principle will be voting O. (On the other hand, I think a certain number of people re permanently soured on the D's because of the antics of the Madison clowns and union thugs. )

 

 Go R/R!!

Posted by: Donna V. at November 06, 2012 03:42 AM (7OHl8)

402 FYI, a fairly non-scientific poll... I use Avast, the free anti-virus program and they did a poll in which 100K users responded. They show Romney winning 49-46 thought those same people responded (thanks make believe media!) they THINK Obama will win 48-40 with 12% unsure. [a href="hhttp://tinyurl.com/ccs9qg6"]Avast Poll[/a]

Posted by: deadrody at November 06, 2012 03:45 AM (N+5Kx)

403 2010 of course happened.

However, 2010 was a mid-term election.  The careless voters don't vote in mid-terms elections.

Posted by: dh at November 06, 2012 03:51 AM (wlKir)

404

you people saying the polls are wrong, that there is some massive under the radar wave are kidding yourselves. can you say "echo chamber". all the years of brainwashing have taken their toll. i live in a fairly red state and i see more obama stickers now than i saw in 2008. most people don't even know about mid term elections. that's why we were able to take the house. obama will squeak this election out, and the senate will remain in dem hands. prepare for the full implementation of the liberal agenda. obama 303, romney 235. read it and weep suckas.

Posted by: ashen at November 06, 2012 04:23 AM (6IzUu)

405 All 15 of my crew voted for R/R. Ace, I am giving you some advice. RELAX, Romney will win this going away. I am 100% certain of it and would bet my life.

Posted by: neveragain at November 06, 2012 04:37 AM (Wnk4X)

406 ashen you are full of shit. i dare you to come back here tomorrow am. beotch

Posted by: neveragain at November 06, 2012 04:54 AM (Wnk4X)

407 >>> "most people don't even know about mid term elections." Oh come on!

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 04:56 AM (SKX2R)

408

i'll be here tonight and tmrw. c u soon

 

Posted by: ashen at November 06, 2012 05:34 AM (6IzUu)

409 Ashen should have tried the gentler, less than optimistic yet philosophical approach to demoralizing.

Posted by: Samwich Ghandi the Turd at November 06, 2012 05:35 AM (E/D0i)

410 i went and voted this am. for romney/ryan. place wasn't crowded, two people in front of me and there were about 10-15 voting booths mostly full. i'm not trying to demoralize. i just want to lower expectations. by the way , i had to text my buddy to get out and vote. he said there is a bomb threat in another city of the company he works for, (not sure if he's fucking with me). hopefully he goes and votes for romney. GO VOTE!!!!!!

Posted by: ashen at November 06, 2012 05:42 AM (6IzUu)

411 Dammit Ace. This is just an excellent post. Excellent!

Posted by: maddogg at November 06, 2012 05:48 AM (OlN4e)

412 ashen, your nickname describes the color your face is going to be tonight. Your subconscious mind that chose the nickname is trying to tell you something . . .

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 05:48 AM (SKX2R)

413

lol

Posted by: ashen at November 06, 2012 05:50 AM (6IzUu)

414 btw there are some great pics of voting lines in florida up at legal insurrection. if anyone is interested.

Posted by: ashen at November 06, 2012 05:54 AM (6IzUu)

415 also, someone names josh kraushaar is tweeting taht early voting up about 2.5% in OH. down about 4% in obama/kerry counties, up over 14% in bush/mccain counties. saw it on hotair.

Posted by: ashen at November 06, 2012 05:58 AM (6IzUu)

416 >>> Ashen should have tried the gentler, less than optimistic yet philosophical approach to demoralizing. On a serious note, can you please tell me how the philosophical principles that both Medal of Honor winner Adm. James Stockdale, who also earned 4 Navy Silver Stars and later served as President of the Navy War College, and other war heroes used to survive being North Vietnamese prisoners of war are DEmotivating for you?

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 05:59 AM (SKX2R)

417 Where do I watch this thing such that all I get are raw numbers and I don't have to deal with commentary and supposition?

Posted by: perturbed at November 06, 2012 06:02 AM (u6Ueb)

418 We are going to win. Polls lie, and have not trusted them ever...especially since 2004. And reading that Reagan vs Carter was "too close to call."

It is all media driven. If they called it for Romney early, or said Romney is way ahead,  they would have lost viewers/readers. It is all for ads and money.

This time tomorrow, unless there are hanging chads, we will have President Romney and VP Ryan and I will be eternally thankful.

I am fixing to turn off everything until noon. Will listen to Rush, then turn off everything again until the love of my life decides to watch the 6pm news with Bret Baer.

Pray. Vote. Pray. Tell everyone to do this.

There is a force out there. Americans united in a cause. This is a new American Revolution. If there is a landslide we will take the Senate as well and I will vaporize with happiness after loudly ringing my cowbell up and down the street.

Blessings to you all. Have faith. We are going to win.

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, raving lunatic about Benghazi at November 06, 2012 06:05 AM (baL2B)

419 I figured you'd settle on this side. Polls are polls but our eyes and ears will always be better. Unless, you're Gabe...

Posted by: runninrebel at November 06, 2012 06:56 AM (J4gw3)

420

Any of you read Erik Erikson of Red State?  He's been on a real downer for a week or so--and he is this morning.  Bummed me out.

Posted by: gayle in ca at November 06, 2012 07:03 AM (wgmUB)

421 Don't count on Wisconsin. I feel like the Senate race is going to affect the Presidential balloting, and a clapped-out ex-guv turned lobbyist against a younger well-spoken female (whose - how you say - "orientation" is never mentioned by the press) is definitely not the matchup sensible conservatives wanted. Damn do-nothing millionaire Dem senator vacates his seat, and Republicans (and crossover Dem primary voters) select an elderly once beloved multi-term former governor (being successfully portrayed as an inside-the-beltway cash machine) instead of a young conservative in the Ryan mold. Tommy has a chance, but he's way behind in the likability stakes, and I think we know how much weight that carries with the "independent undecided" voters like your grandma and mother-in-law and daytime television watchers in general.

Posted by: Hazy Dave at November 06, 2012 08:04 AM (FK+kQ)

422 prepare for the full implementation of the liberal agenda. Posted by: ashen at November 06, 2012 08:23 AM (6IzUu) -------- So we should expect 10% unemployment, 1% GDP growth rates, and trillions of dollars in deficits as far as the eye can see? Well, if that's what the people want, then they should get it.

Posted by: Mullaney at November 06, 2012 09:03 AM (s8XaI)

423 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at November 06, 2012 09:10 AM (9XBK2)

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