Ace of Spades HQ

May 27, 2012

Mythbusting the Left's "Polls Overstated Walker's Support in 2010" Talking Point
— CAC

A now common idea spread around the leftosphere is that the polling for Walker, which puts him clearly ahead of Barrett, is overstating Walker's support, because it did last cycle.

Well, here is the Real Clear Politics recap from 2010:

Now, at first it looks like the left is right: Walker averaged a lead three points higher than the margin he actually enjoyed. But that isn't the implication of the meme. The meme is that Walker's support is overstated in the polling, and that isn't true. The polls almost nailed it.

Per the polling average, Walker was projected to get 52% of the vote.
He won 52.3% of the vote. In fact of all the polling sampled only two polls out of over the last dozen overshot: by .7%. Barrett's share was underestimated, but not at Walker's expense. The margin of victory narrowed, but Walker's expected take actually grew.

Let's look at the current polling:
We Ask America: Walker 54%
DemGovAssociat: Walker 49%
Barrett's latest int: Walker 50%
Marquette Law: Walker 50%
PPP(LV)/Kos: Walker 50%
RasmussenPolls: Walker 50%
Reason-Rupe: Walker 50%
WPR/StNorbert Walker 50%
Polling Average: Walker 50.375%

If the same "overestimate" effect that happened in 2010 happened again, Walker still clears 50%, Barrett's share grows...and Walker would still win.

Posted by: CAC at 12:51 PM | Comments (45)
Post contains 232 words, total size 2 kb.

1 I get the feeling that a "don't let him break 50%" memo went out to some pollsters.

Posted by: Lincolntf at May 27, 2012 12:54 PM (HethX)

2 They're underestimating the 'Enough of this bullshit' backlash.

Posted by: nickless at May 27, 2012 12:57 PM (MMC8r)

3 Can anyone recommend a good white wine to go with the Libtears? I want to be stocked up just in case and I can't drink reds since those trip my migraines.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at May 27, 2012 01:01 PM (Gk3SS)

4 So, last time polls underestimated Barrett's support by 3%. I wonder what the margin of fraud is in Wisconsin. 3% doesn't seem impossible. How many votes would that be?

Posted by: Jeff Gauch at May 27, 2012 01:02 PM (B4yk5)

5 alex, my preferred white wine is Pinot Grigio. It goes great with the bacon and cheese popcorn I'm planning to make.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at May 27, 2012 01:03 PM (UOM48)

6 Miami police and witnesses say that an officer on Saturday fatally shot a naked man who was chewing on the face of another man on a downtown causeway off-ramp.

The Miami Herald reports that gunshots were heard at about 2 p.m. on the MacArthur Causeway off-ramp, which is near the newspaper's offices. Witnesses said that a woman saw two men fighting and flagged down a police officer, who came upon a naked man mauling the other man.

The newspaper quoted witnesses as saying that the officer ordered the naked man to back away, and when he ignored the demand, the officer shot him. Witnesses said that the naked man continued his attack after being shot once, and the officer then shot him several more times.

Posted by: Jones in CO at May 27, 2012 01:07 PM (8sCoq)

7 Walker wins, and Romney carries WI; so let it be written, so let it be said

Amen. Now gimme eat! Give everybody eat !!!

Posted by: Major _________ de Coverly at May 27, 2012 01:07 PM (Dll6b)

8 alex, my preferred white wine is Pinot Grigio. It goes great with the bacon and cheese popcorn I'm planning to make.

Ohhhhh, that does sound good.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at May 27, 2012 01:08 PM (Gk3SS)

9 Did my own math, it turns out 3% represents 64,000 votes statewide.

Posted by: Jeff Gauch at May 27, 2012 01:08 PM (B4yk5)

10 Cheesy Bacon Popcorn Drizzle 4 cups hot popcorn with 1 tablespoon bacon drippings. Toss with 3 tablespoons crumbled cooked bacon and 1/4 cup each grated parmesan and cheddar.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at May 27, 2012 01:11 PM (UOM48)

11 Seriously - don't underestimate the lengths to which the leftists will go to win. Walker needs 2-3 points just to overcome the fraud... MKE and MSN are bussing folks in and keeping their early polling places open extended hours and over this holiday weekend. :-/

Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at May 27, 2012 01:11 PM (Y9uVD)

12 Here greggy greggy....

Posted by: Jane D'oh at May 27, 2012 01:12 PM (UOM48)

13 3 Can anyone recommend a good white wine to go with the Libtears? I want to be stocked up just in case and I can't drink reds since those trip my migraines.

Anything with the words "Val-u-Right" on it?

Posted by: Satan's Barbed Schnitzengruber at May 27, 2012 01:14 PM (Jls4P)

14 Anything with the words "Val-u-Right" on it? Posted by: Satan's Barbed Schnitzengruber at May 27, 2012 05:14 PM (Jls4P) -------------------------------------------------------- It ain't wine if'n it don't come out of a box or has a screw top.

Posted by: Truck Monkey at May 27, 2012 01:15 PM (jucos)

15 SUCK IT, AVERAGE JOE

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at May 27, 2012 01:16 PM (akXk+)

16 If when Field Marshall Choom Gang (stolen from Iowahawk) loses to Mitt, I really do believe my lib sister and in-laws will lose their minds.

I'm stocking up on popcorn and practicing my smug.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at May 27, 2012 01:17 PM (UOM48)

17 My daughter gave me a really nice b-day card today. She must think I'm special.

Posted by: Ronster at May 27, 2012 01:17 PM (mHC3R)

18 "leftosphere?"

Sinisterosphere is less gauche.

Posted by: Lucifer at May 27, 2012 01:18 PM (OULR2)

19 I really hope Walker pulls it off. It will be great watching lefties jump out of windows after he is declared the winner. Ed "pigman" Shultz will have to be locked in a padded room.

Posted by: Ronster at May 27, 2012 01:21 PM (mHC3R)

20 Happy Birthday, Ronster!

Posted by: Jane D'oh at May 27, 2012 01:22 PM (UOM48)

21 OT Just thought I'd mention that the Good Lord is proving once again to anyone who is paying attention: Hurricane season starts when ever he wants it to start, not June 1 which is the official opening date of the season. This is our second tropical storm in Georgia in the last two weeks. Gnaw on that AGW Nazis.

Posted by: wierd flunky at May 27, 2012 01:22 PM (tlhtD)

22 Thanks Jane. They seem to be coming more often the older I get.

Posted by: Ronster at May 27, 2012 01:23 PM (mHC3R)

23 Happy birthday, Ronster!

Posted by: Y-not at May 27, 2012 01:29 PM (5H6zj)

24 21 OTJust thought I'd mention that the Good Lord is proving once again to anyone who is paying attention: Hurricane season starts when ever he wants it to start, not June 1 which is the official opening date of the season. This is our second tropical storm in Georgia in the last two weeks. Gnaw on that AGW Nazis.

Posted by: wierd flunky at May 27, 2012 05:22 PM (tlhtD

Yep. The Coast Guard has shut down all incoming/leaving ship traffic into and out of the Port of Savannah. Can't recall that ever happening before.

We're going to get hit during high tide tonight which will flood the road to Tybee Island by a good three feet, according to a local forecaster.

None of this would be happening if Booooosh hadn't stolen the election from Al Gore.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at May 27, 2012 01:29 PM (UOM48)

Thanks Y-not.

I'm heading to my favorite easy chair to watch the Charlotte 600.

To all those close to the tropical storm, stay safe.

Posted by: Ronster at May 27, 2012 01:34 PM (mHC3R)

26 Miami zombie attack!

Posted by: Jean at May 27, 2012 01:35 PM (qjHIb)

27 I misread that, 2pm! It must have been a very weird scene for officer to go with his sidearm.

Posted by: Jean at May 27, 2012 01:39 PM (qjHIb)

28 6,27. Gives new meaning to "shot like a rabid dog" eh? Wonder if they will test the crazy assailant for rabies, or syphilis as well as for drugs.

Posted by: Palerider at May 27, 2012 01:45 PM (ql12X)

29 tablespoon bacon drippings. Toss with 3 tablespoons crumbled cooked
bacon and 1/4 cup each grated parmesan and cheddar.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at May 27, 2012 05:11 PM (UOM4

Only one tablespoon of bacon grease? That doesn't seem like nearly enough.

Posted by: Hydrocarbon Liberation Front at May 27, 2012 01:46 PM (NVu2l)

30 But Intrade has Barrett up by 20%!!!!!!!!

Posted by: In before the troll at May 27, 2012 01:59 PM (Rhie+)

31 As we all know and have seen, fifty-two is all that's needed to ride roughshod over your "enemies." Yeah. In scare quotes.

Posted by: The littl shyning man at May 27, 2012 02:29 PM (PH+2B)

32 I thought the last one was the final "zzz".

Posted by: datsnotamore at May 27, 2012 03:15 PM (NqMCd)

33 If the recall fails, will they try and do another recall? Not knowing their state constitution, I would assume there's no limits?

Posted by: Kaitian at May 27, 2012 03:47 PM (et2m1)

34 They're just grasping at straws at this point. We did the same thing with McCain when it became clear he was going to lose- Bradley effect?, Pumas? anyone. The biggest indication that this is over is that the Democrats are trying to minimize the impact.

Posted by: Sean at May 27, 2012 03:48 PM (HXwLc)

35 I was told today by a BO supporter that Walker is going to lose. He claimed that the polls are being engineered to appear that he's winning but he's definitely going to lose. He told us that we could "take that to the bank". He originally came from the state so his comment made me wonder what he knows. I challenged him as did some of the other folks but he remained steadfast even in the face of i pads with polls showing walker winning. Near as I could tell, he has family in Wisconsin who are big union people. He made a big deal about how they have worked hard all their lives so he could go to college and grad school and become the wall street big shot he claims he is.

His payback was the fact that he liked one of my friends and I convinced her he wasn't worth her time.....

Posted by: fan at May 27, 2012 03:53 PM (oZfic)

36 35
He sounds like an idiot. Be sure to taste his tears when it's all said and done. His tears will be sweet.

Posted by: Sean at May 27, 2012 04:00 PM (HXwLc)

37 Is this assclown's name "Greg" by any chance?

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at May 27, 2012 04:26 PM (fiXQh)

38 Posted by: Sean at May 27, 2012 08:00 PM (HXwLc)

It's curious. Like everything else that anyone posts, take it with a grain of salt.

Posted by: Deathknyte at May 27, 2012 04:28 PM (+Mrgt)

39 "Let's look at the current polling:"

One more, If I may.

AnonymousDrivel Household: Walker 100%

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at May 27, 2012 04:35 PM (eHIJJ)

40 36 35
He sounds like an idiot. Be sure to taste his tears when it's all said and done. His tears will be sweet.

Posted by: Sean at May 27, 2012 08:00 PM (HXwLc)

Yep, he was. Hamptons wanna be type who wouldn't back down even when all the lawyers lawyered him but good. Checked around and he's a big deal in his own mind only.

But what really frightened me was his unwillingness to just drop it, in the face of litigators with I pads with polls....lots of polls....It was a social setting, you don't end up creating a scene over an election...you get owned and you quietly go get food or another drink...you don't keep pushing what you think when it's clear even the other libs/dems want you to stop talking.

Posted by: fan at May 27, 2012 06:16 PM (oZfic)

41 By law, Walker cannot undergo another recall during this term. Hence, once he wins this, he's good. Gotta watch the senate races, though, to see how the legislature shakes out.

Posted by: Popcorn at May 27, 2012 06:18 PM (OOehk)

42 "DNC Chair Wasserman Schultz: Wisconsin Recall Is a Test Run"http://tinyurl.com/75jxgzl

I wonder if this is where he's getting his talking points.

Posted by: fan at May 27, 2012 06:29 PM (oZfic)

43 Just today I heard DNC Chair Wasserman Schultz say that a loss to Gov Walker didn't mean a thing.

Posted by: InfamousIndependent at May 27, 2012 07:29 PM (zDC5L)

44 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at May 27, 2012 07:56 PM (7W3wI)

45 #40

The guy sounds like a real douchebag. You don't do that sort of thing in a social setting. Tell the dude that he can catch a correspondence course on etiquette.

Posted by: Mikey NTH - killing time before bed at May 28, 2012 06:36 PM (gmoEG)

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