Ace of Spades HQ

October 09, 2012

New CNN Number So Terrible for Romney...
— CAC

It contributes to the decline in Obama's Ohio "advantage."

Was
+5.5 five days ago (pre-debate numbers)
+3.0 two days ago.

Now:

+0.7.

I'm shaking in fear over Obama's continued collapse. Really. I feel terrible for the trolls, for the Democrats, and for certain ewoks who get woozy after I've stepped on them.

Let's all freak out when CNN says their new poll "shows a shift towards Romney" since the previous polls had double that margin.

Posted by: CAC at 12:27 PM | Comments (113)
Post contains 89 words, total size 1 kb.

1 News polls are just about worthless, CNN more than most.

Posted by: Vic at October 09, 2012 12:28 PM (YdQQY)

2 Daaaaaang.

CAC ain't havin none of it.

Posted by: HoboJerky, now with 45% more DOOM! at October 09, 2012 12:28 PM (xAtAj)

3 So calculate that slope and extrapolate to election day

Posted by: Al at October 09, 2012 12:28 PM (MzQOZ)

4 And ACE IS DOWN, ACE IS DOWN!!

Posted by: Bruce at October 09, 2012 12:28 PM (JI+T4)

Oh look another poll. sheesh.

Posted by: polynikes at October 09, 2012 12:29 PM (m2CN7)

6
So I suppose tomorrow were getting a mid morning open thread and the overnight thread.

Posted by: fixeruper at October 09, 2012 12:29 PM (C8hzL)

7 Smack his ass, CAC! Get him! Hell yeah!

Posted by: Dang© at October 09, 2012 12:29 PM (R18D0)

8 Trending ...

Posted by: Joe Mama at October 09, 2012 12:29 PM (rlba9)

9 Stacey Dash and Polls... Shits gettin real...

Posted by: cajun carrot at October 09, 2012 12:30 PM (UZQM8)

10 Where is the post on all the new Rassmussen numbers?

Posted by: jwest at October 09, 2012 12:30 PM (ZDsRL)

11 while i realize that polls are an illusionist's main trick, it does do wonders for my psyche when a good one comes out

Posted by: kelley in virginia at October 09, 2012 12:30 PM (HNwOT)

12 Gergle is going hard on the CNN poll on the Nate Silver thread. I'm sure he'll wander over here soon.......

Posted by: Tami at October 09, 2012 12:31 PM (X6akg)

13 I like how you waited until Ace thought you were KO'd, and then you kicked him in the yarbles!

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at October 09, 2012 12:31 PM (e7w2X)

14 Romney being down 4-5 pts in Ohio is really great news for the guy, lol. It's got a very realistic sample, too. Debate bump OVER.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:32 PM (wKkyv)

15 Game over man, game over!

Posted by: Greg Hudson at October 09, 2012 12:32 PM (/YJYi)

16 The only polls before election day that are interesting are the ones that cause the Dem.-Commies to drink the cool aid in their bath tubs full of hot water while they slit their wrists. The only poll that really counts is the one on election day. Stop me if you've heard this before. TOO LATE!

Posted by: Thorvald at October 09, 2012 12:32 PM (1V6Pv)

17 There's a lot of ball gargling going on around here...

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at October 09, 2012 12:32 PM (BuSM8)

18 Sweep the leg, CAC.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 09, 2012 12:33 PM (lOmbq)

19 Holy shit, Obama's lead has dropped. Game over Romney, game over!

Posted by: Greg Hudson at October 09, 2012 12:33 PM (/YJYi)

20 Like I said....soooo predictable Gergle.

Posted by: Tami at October 09, 2012 12:33 PM (X6akg)

21 People, STOP looking at the topline in these biased polls. Look at one number - INDEPENDENTS.

If Obama loses Independents he loses. Two new polls out today showing Obama losing Independents by 18 and 20 points. It's over.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 09, 2012 12:33 PM (hlUJY)

AHHH! FUCK CAC, YOU JUST DICK-STOMPED ME!!

Posted by: Greg's Small Weenie at October 09, 2012 12:33 PM (F6KtL)

23 Read awhile ago that what Axelrod does when he has bad news is he gets a media poll to get dropped to shift the narrative. The same thing happened about a month ago when some good Ohio polling came out for Romney.

Greg is part of that strategy. His job is to push that media poll and set up the meme.

They keep trying for a bandwagon effect.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 09, 2012 12:34 PM (98+n7)

24 Average Joe hardest hit.

Posted by: toby928© for TB at October 09, 2012 12:34 PM (QupBk)

25 CNN's polls are about as credible as the O-administration's unemployment numbers.

Posted by: wheatie at October 09, 2012 12:34 PM (l5RhJ)

26 Greg, when you type the dumb shit that you type, are you getting it up the ass at the same time, or do you like to do that onl after?

Posted by: Rich at October 09, 2012 12:35 PM (pnHKr)

Polls are just going to get better. I litterally can't wait for Ryan to offer Biden a hanky on Thursday. It's gonna be sweet!

Posted by: Schnack at October 09, 2012 12:35 PM (61gxa)

28 Hey Greg, suck on this. >>In a remarkable reversal of fortune for President Obama in Ohio, the GOP has closed the huge gap in absentee ballot requests used by early voters that favored the Democrats and the president in 2008, setting up what one state analyst said could be a Mitt Romney blowout on Election Day. >>While in 2008, 33 percent of the 1,158,301 absentee ballots went to Democrats and just 19 percent to registered Republicans, a 14-point gap, this year 29 percent are being requested by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans, a five-point gap. >>University of Dayton Professor Larry Schweikart told American Majority Action President Ned Ryun that the GOP gains favor Romney. "Although it is early, we will soon be at a point where--assuming Republicans vote for Romney--the Democrats will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio's voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big." http://tinyurl.com/8wlhqlo

Posted by: JackStraw at October 09, 2012 12:35 PM (TMB3S)

29 YEAH BABY! WOO-WOO ONE POLL SHOWIN MY COCK WORSHIPPER WINNING! WE'RE WINNING BABY! WE'RE WINNING!

Posted by: Greg-Resident Troll with a small dick at October 09, 2012 12:35 PM (F6KtL)

30 Ace was all like yub yub yub and then CAC goes like stompy-woozy thunderdome on his fuzzy ass. It was awesome.

Posted by: Muad'dib at October 09, 2012 12:35 PM (KjlbF)

31 *SQUAWK* My life sucks! *SQUAWK* I'd kill myself I could operate a gun! *SQUAWK* I'm going to die a virgin! *SQUAWK* *whistles*

Posted by: Gergy wants a cracker at October 09, 2012 12:36 PM (aHR5E)

32 Shorter Gerg: My boyfriend is to going to make Varsity this year!!1

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at October 09, 2012 12:36 PM (e7w2X)

33 al-CNN. 'Nuff said.

So solly Gleg, irregar Chinee money no hep Plesident this time.

Posted by: eureka! at October 09, 2012 12:36 PM (cTjRR)

34 ARG just out with Romney now UP in OH and 16 point shift in gender gap

Posted by: Steven W. at October 09, 2012 12:36 PM (uqJO9)

35 I'm happy today! Not because of the CNN poll, but because Obama finally gave me a reach-around when he was fucking me in the ass! First time for everything, right guys??!!!

Posted by: Greg-Resident Troll with a small dick at October 09, 2012 12:37 PM (F6KtL)

36 Ohio is important in that Democrats take it on faith that as long as Barack is ahead in Ohio he is gauranteed to win the race. Seeing polls with Romney +3-5 in Ohio would fill their hearts with dread.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 09, 2012 12:37 PM (/g5vp)

37 Who's winning Independents in the Ohio poll?

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:37 PM (wKkyv)

38 I can wipe my ass without using my hands. I'll let you watch for a dollar.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:38 PM (BuSM8)

39 So, has anybody heard if there were any polls out today?

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 09, 2012 12:38 PM (SY2Kh)

40 "Seeing polls with Romney +3-5 in Ohio would fill their hearts with dread." Yeah, then Romney would have a realistic chance of winning. But it will NEVER happen.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:38 PM (wKkyv)

41 I think this is the end for Romney. Ryan can't do that much better. Besides Biden is so smexy.

Posted by: All the Ugly Liberal Feminists at October 09, 2012 12:38 PM (6KsL8)

42 Who's winning Independents in the Ohio poll?

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 04:37 PM (wKkyv)

Who's closing the gap and who's losing ground? Fuck nugget. lololol

Posted by: Adam at October 09, 2012 12:38 PM (/YJYi)

43 Wait -- CAC is getting up -- HE'S GOT A FOLDING CHAIR!

Posted by: joncelli, beating a dead meme at October 09, 2012 12:38 PM (RD7QR)

44 really is a slow news day today

Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 09, 2012 12:39 PM (oSFWF)

45 Also, Romney internals have been showing him down by 1 in Ohio prior to the debate. His pollster uses a D+3 partisan ID in their polling nationally.

Ohio won't be D+3.

It was even in 2010 and R+5 in 2004.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 09, 2012 12:39 PM (98+n7)

46 "21 People, STOP looking at the topline in these biased polls. Look at one number - INDEPENDENTS" Yes, look at that number in the Ohio poll.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:39 PM (wKkyv)

47 40. But it will NEVER happen.

And Walker will NEVER survive the recall.

Posted by: Scanner Dan at October 09, 2012 12:39 PM (tBAH/)

Better than polls are looking at the comments in blogs that people would think lean left. Entertainment blogs like TMZ, etc.

The comments on the Snoop Dog white ninja list showed me that Obama is behind. Comments on Local CBS,ABC and NBC affiliate blogs also consistently favor Romney.

I don't know if the right has their own 'Axlerod' but the blog comments give me confidence.

Posted by: polynikes at October 09, 2012 12:39 PM (m2CN7)

49 Who's on Andrew Sullivan Watch?

Posted by: RightWingProf at October 09, 2012 12:39 PM (Cjjf6)

'Yeah, then Romney would have a realistic chance of winning. But it will NEVER happen.'

YEAH! I KEEP TELLING MYSELF THAT! I TROLL NOT BECAUSE I'M A SEXUAL VIRGIN. BUT BECAUSE I'M SO SMART AND SEXY! AT LEAST, MY MOM TELLS ME I AM!

Posted by: Greg-Resident Troll with a small dick at October 09, 2012 12:40 PM (F6KtL)

51 Who's on Andrew Sullivan Watch? Mickey?

Posted by: toby928© for TB at October 09, 2012 12:40 PM (QupBk)

52 Hey Gerg who's closing the gap and who's losing ground?

Posted by: Adam at October 09, 2012 12:40 PM (/YJYi)

If you want to do technical analysis, Romney has broken through Obama's longterm support levels (about 45%) and Romney's own support caps (also about 45%) suggesting something new is happening. I'd love to project that slope out as jokingly suggested above.

The overall upward trend for Romney has to be viewed positively in light of the Obama negative ad barrage which must be the same in OH as it is here in FL.

Posted by: Beagle at October 09, 2012 12:40 PM (sOtz/)

Gal-Up poll indicates Stacey Dash is trending 'higher' in my pants.

Posted by: MythicalMeganBanger at October 09, 2012 12:41 PM (uEm7J)

'Yes, look at that number in the Ohio poll.'

JUST LOOK AT THAT ONE POLL YOU WING-NUTS! JUST THAT ONE! NOT ANY OF THE OTHERS BECAUSE -SHUT UP ACE!

Posted by: Greg-Resident Troll with a small dick at October 09, 2012 12:41 PM (F6KtL)

56 Yes, look at that number in the Ohio poll.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 04:39 PM (wKkyv)

We are, and Romney's winning with independents so your point is invalid.

Posted by: cheese at October 09, 2012 12:41 PM (i3OIF)

57 There are no American tanks in Baghdad!

Posted by: Baghdad Gerg at October 09, 2012 12:41 PM (aHR5E)

58 Remember what the exit polls were saying about Ohio in 2004? President Kerry anyone?

Posted by: tofer732 at October 09, 2012 12:42 PM (2zM0P)

59 Suddenly Greg wants us to look at Independents. Unfuckingbelievable.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 09, 2012 12:42 PM (98+n7)

60 So which is it? Abandon Ohio? try for Mich.? I'm so confused...

Posted by: Hello, it's just me Donna at October 09, 2012 12:42 PM (9+ccr)

61 Greg, do you even care who is President?

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 09, 2012 12:43 PM (/g5vp)

It doesn't matter what the polls say. It matters what I say the polls say.

LOL

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:43 PM (ggRof)

63 Gerg's ass must be getting really sore from taking in so many polls today.

Posted by: Soona at October 09, 2012 12:43 PM (GZmzv)

64 Did I miss it? Did Greg answer my question as to how he was casting his ballot?

Posted by: laceyunderalls at October 09, 2012 12:43 PM (pLTLS)

65 Not yet, Lacey, not yet.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 09, 2012 12:45 PM (98+n7)

66 Butt sex is ok for jihad purposes.

Just sayin'.

Posted by: Baghdad Gerg at October 09, 2012 12:45 PM (aHR5E)

Romney is givign foreign policy speeches and drawing large crowds at campaign stops, even in bad weather. Obama is talking about a cartoon character and drawing middling crowds at universities, and begging for money in Hollywood.

Who's winning?

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at October 09, 2012 12:45 PM (YmPwQ)

68 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at October 09, 2012 12:46 PM (6o4Fb)

69 Ya cain't keep a good ewok down.

I think I just heard a crossbow being cocked.

Posted by: GnuBreed at October 09, 2012 12:46 PM (ccXZP)

70 Can I get me a huntin' license here?

Posted by: John Kerry at October 09, 2012 12:46 PM (l3vZN)

71 This just in: a survey of Greg's playmates at his favorite bathhouse puts it at a dead heat between Obama and Romney, but both losing badly to RuPaul.

Posted by: Jay Guevara at October 09, 2012 12:46 PM (U+DUu)

72 Maybe if everyone keeps asking the question, he'll either be forced to answer or he'll leave.

Posted by: laceyunderalls thinking I'm engaging in wishiful thinking at October 09, 2012 12:47 PM (pLTLS)

73 Romney is givign foreign policy speeches and drawing large crowds at campaign stops, even in bad weather. Obama is talking about a cartoon character and drawing middling crowds at universities, and begging for money in Hollywood.
Who's winning?

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at October 09, 2012 04:45 PM (YmPwQ)

-----------------------------------------------

'bama foh!

Posted by: 'bama foh at October 09, 2012 12:47 PM (GZmzv)

74 Who's on Andrew Sullivan Watch?

Reporting for duty.

Posted by: Finely honed straight razor at October 09, 2012 12:48 PM (SY2Kh)

75 "52 Hey Gerg who's closing the gap and who's losing ground?" If you're happy losing by 4.5 pts, I'm not going to rain on your parade.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:48 PM (wKkyv)

76 65 Did I miss it? Did Greg answer my question as to how he was casting his ballot?

=====================

I asked him once before and he claimed he was voting for Romney.

Lying liars lie.

Posted by: Tami at October 09, 2012 12:48 PM (X6akg)

77 "60 Suddenly Greg wants us to look at Independents. Unfuckingbelievable." yep, unbelievable that after all the excitement over independents in other polls, maybe you might want to take a gander and see how the independent vote is breaking in OH. Just a thought.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:49 PM (wKkyv)

78 Who's on Andrew Sullivan Watch?

Poll master Greggy

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 09, 2012 12:50 PM (1Jaio)

79 "52 Hey Gerg who's closing the gap and who's losing ground?"

If you're happy losing by 4.5 pts, I'm not going to rain on your parade.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 04:48 PM (wKkyv)

We'll take that as a "Romney is closing the gap."

Posted by: Beagle at October 09, 2012 12:51 PM (sOtz/)

80 If you're happy losing by 4.5 pts, I'm not going to rain on your parade.

It takes a special sort of retard to believe that Obama is going to win Ohio by the same (4.6 pt) margin as 2008.

You are that retard.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 09, 2012 12:51 PM (SY2Kh)

81 "It takes a special sort of retard to believe that Obama is going to win Ohio by the same (4.6 pt) margin as 2008." So what if he doesn't win it by the same margin, he's still going to win...probably by 2 pts. And that is the ballgame.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:52 PM (wKkyv)

That's so sweet. No one's called me "special" before. Now, "retard"....

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:53 PM (ggRof)

83 In this poll Obama has indies +4...but the MOE is 6. A lot of Obama's leads in the subgroups for this poll are MOE or less. It's a noisy poll, honestly.

Posted by: argh at October 09, 2012 12:53 PM (TSE0p)

84 Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 04:52 PM (wKkyv)

Barry is going to win just like he won the debate

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 09, 2012 12:54 PM (1Jaio)

McCain did not lose women in Ohio by 22% Greg.

As a result Romney is ahead if the 2008 dynamic is the same because McCain only lost women by about 7%.

Posted by: cheese at October 09, 2012 12:56 PM (i3OIF)

According to my 6.001" pole, Obama DID win the debate!

Margin of error +/- 6".

OK, it's -6".

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:56 PM (ggRof)

87 I heart me some Obama.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:57 PM (i3OIF)

88 "88 McCain did not lose women in Ohio by 22% Greg. As a result Romney is ahead if the 2008 dynamic is the same because McCain only lost women by about 7%." The "war on women" ad is airing a ton in OH. And that meme is being pressed much harder now than in 08. Not saying the gap is that huge, but I wouldn't be surprised if Romney did worse than McCain with that group.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:58 PM (wKkyv)

89 It doesn't matter who counts the polls, it only matters who poles The Count.

Posted by: Josef, Aged 8, Stalin Street at October 09, 2012 12:59 PM (KZi9D)

90 I remember when Greg was still posing a pessimistic conservative. Good times, good times.

Posted by: T at October 09, 2012 12:59 PM (IWwgs)

91 I make up my own BS, ignore all polling trends, and love me some Obama.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 12:59 PM (i3OIF)

92 14 Romney being down 4-5 pts in Ohio is really great news for the guy, lol.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 04:32 PM (wKkyv)

Nobody sane believes Romney is actually down by 4 in Ohio, not when he's tied or ahead nationally. Ohio won't vary from the national polls more than a point or two. The average of 5 past-debate polls in Ohio (WAA, Ras, ARG, SUSA, CNN) has Obama ahead by less than 1 pt.

Posted by: Jon (not the troll) at October 09, 2012 12:59 PM (GhImK)

It's Obama in my tummy

so yummy so yummy

It's Joe Biden in my tummy

so yummy so yummy

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 01:00 PM (i3OIF)

94 So what if he doesn't win it by the same margin, he's still going to win...probably by 2 pts.

And that is the ballgame.

Does your back hurt? You know, from moving that heavy goalpost around.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 09, 2012 01:02 PM (SY2Kh)

95 The "war on women" ad is airing a ton in OH. And that meme is being pressed much harder now than in 08.

Not saying the gap is that huge, but I wouldn't be surprised if Romney did worse than McCain with that group.

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 04:58 PM (wKkyv)

They're back to the "war on womyn"? They're as pathetic as you are

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 09, 2012 01:03 PM (1Jaio)

I lie with the helping of Alexrod in my tummy

so yummy so yummy

I cant answer questions about Ohio 2008 exit polls without spinning

so yummy so yummy

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 01:04 PM (i3OIF)

97 using high D turnout to cover that I's have choosen Romney. that'll hold

Posted by: joeindc44 found the last comment to be vile, particularly vile at October 09, 2012 01:08 PM (QxSug)

98 I know nothing of this "margin of error," of which you speak.

Posted by: Baghdad Gerg at October 09, 2012 01:08 PM (aHR5E)

99 According to John Nolte, that CNN poll had Obama getting 19% of self styled conservatives...whut?

Posted by: jjshaka at October 09, 2012 01:11 PM (d9Rlo)

100 Greg, the MOE on the white women subsample is about 6...the amount Obama leads Romney on. Like I said, it's a noisy poll and there's just not a lot of favorable movement for Obama in it, as he's mostly not showing leads beyond those MOEs.

Posted by: argh at October 09, 2012 01:12 PM (TSE0p)

101 Survey USA showing Obama +1 over Romney

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 01:14 PM (wKkyv)

102 Survey USA showing Obama +1 over Romney

Posted by: Greg at October 09, 2012 05:14 PM (wKkyv)

Lay off eating the paint chips

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 09, 2012 01:23 PM (1Jaio)

103 44really is a slow news day today

Posted by: Nevergiveup

Ya, but the post count is rising faster than Romney's poll numbers.

Posted by: Gmac at October 09, 2012 01:29 PM (IanLz)

104 104 Survey USA showing Obama +1 over Romney

Survey of grown ups who still play with Tickle Me Elmo Dolls Obama +100 over Romney.

Posted by: booger at October 09, 2012 01:32 PM (HI6wa)

105

CNN poll is a fraud. They find Democrats call them independents and come up with a close partisan profile.

Romney is up in Ohio by 5%. Take it to the bank. Look at the early absentee voting requests. GOP is up 8% from 2008. GOP is up big in Hamilton County (the swing county in Ohio). Obama won Hamilton in 2008 by 7%.

Posted by: LorenU at October 09, 2012 01:36 PM (NqJX/)

106 If I had any money, I'd definitely bet on Obama.

Posted by: Teh Gerginator at October 09, 2012 01:40 PM (V/U0X)

107 If that slope were to continue, even the dead may switch their vote from Democrat to Republican.

Posted by: Evan Maughan at October 09, 2012 01:52 PM (AKWgn)

108 D.M. Hawkins @HawkinsUSA 58m @syork2816 Yes. The chances of Dem turnout being higher than 08 is between slim and none and slim just got his by a freight train.

Posted by: Evilpens at October 09, 2012 01:52 PM (ck76k)

109 D.M. Hawkins @HawkinsUSA 1h I still argue that half the polls are crap, just like before. Many of them (IBD, ARG, CNN) still drastically over-shooting Dem turnout

Posted by: Evilpens at October 09, 2012 01:54 PM (ck76k)

110 SalenaZito @SalenaZitoTrib 12m Yep, this -> @DavidMDrucker Just hitting inbox from the @BarackObama campaign: President Obama: LetÂ’s Nation-Build Here at Home

Posted by: Evilpens at October 09, 2012 01:55 PM (ck76k)

111 Joe Pounder @PounderFile ABC: Security Officer in Libya Refers to Post Being Directed to Â“NormalizeÂ” Operations and Reduce US Security Presence is.gd/NLLzav

Posted by: Evilpens at October 09, 2012 01:55 PM (ck76k)

112 Many of them (IBD, ARG, CNN) still drastically over-shooting Dem turnout Posted by: Evilpens at October 09, 2012 05:54 PM (ck76k) In other words, factoring in voter fraud. Never let it get close enough for them to cheat.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 09, 2012 02:10 PM (i0vBR)

113 That Romney red line on the graph is going straight up, isn't it?

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned, ready to get this done at October 09, 2012 03:56 PM (baL2B)

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