Ace of Spades HQ

October 30, 2012

NumberMuncher: Ohio's Looking Better Than The Polls Claim
— Ace

Could both the national polls (Romney ahead) and the Ohio state polls (Obama ahead) be right?

Possibly, but probably not. NumberMuncher Josh Jordan suspects the state polls of being out of whack.

It's a Read the Whole Thing deal, with numbers and such, but the math is easy, even for a Moron (TM). Here are some bullet points:

In Ohio, Republicans tend to outperform their share of the national vote: In the last six presidential elections, only in 2004 has the Republican candidate performed worse in Ohio than he did nationally, and even that was a difference of only 0.3 percentage points. In the other five elections, the GOP candidate outperformed his margin of the national vote by an average of 3.1 percentage points.
...
DemocratsÂ’ national turnout advantage is usually bigger than their Ohio turnout: Not since 1996, during ClintonÂ’s reelection campaign, have Democrats had a larger turnout advantage in Ohio than they did nationally. In 2000 and 2008, Democrats were 2 points under their national turnout advantage and were actually 5 points under in 2004. Polls are currently showing an average Democratic turnout advantage of 6.3, which is 1.9 points higher than their current advantage nationally.

Now, about those partisan ID splits:

As mentioned above, in current Ohio polls, Democrats have a party-ID sample advantage of 6.3 points. In 2008, Democrats had a 5-point turnout advantage in Ohio. That means that while national polls have the turnout advantage down 2.6 points, in Ohio it has actually increased 1.3 points. It is almost impossible to conclude that while the nationwide party-ID advantage of Democrats has dropped since the wave election of 2008, Ohio has actually increased over the last four years.

I can't quote it all, but he suggests a culprit for these out-of-whack splits that I mentioned a week ago: Early voting's effect on the polls. Many polls (but not all) feature a Likely Voter battery of questions designed to determine who is truly a "Likely Voter" with more rigor than simply asking them "Do you consider yourself a likely voter?"

Actually -- shockingly -- some polls just use that one question as their Likely Voter "screen," making it more of a sieve than a screen. (Yeah and I know those two things are pretty similar but you get my point.) They ask just one question -- how likely are you to vote, or two questions, adding a question asking about the interviewee's level of interest in the race.

But other screens ask a few more things, again, to separate out the people who just say "I'm a Likely Voter" because it's the socially preferred answer from those who are actually, genuinely likely voters.

Now, the point is, if someone says "I already voted," you can't really ask additional questions. You can't follow up that answer up with "Are you sure you already voted?" and "No, seriously, buddy, tell me the truth, did you already vote or are you just jerking my chain?" If they say they already voted, they get put directly into the likely voter pool without those bothersome questions designed to smoke out the bullshitters.

This may also be why there are so many more "already voted" voters in polls as compared to actual state records.

NumberMuncher had similar thoughts in his last column, and also noted the Incumbent rule.

This is a rule that always receives some skepticism, but itÂ’s very likely to benefit Romney at least some on Election Day. In 2004, late deciders broke against George W. Bush heavily, even though he was a wartime president. John Kerry beat Bush by 25 points among voters who decided in the last month, 28 points among voters that decided in the three days prior to Election Day, and 22 points among day-of deciders. Those voters were 20 percent of the Ohio electorate; while this year there are expected to be fewer late deciders, Obama cannot afford to lose among by those margins and still win.

His overall thrust is that tied or slightly behind in Ohio state polls = likely Romney lead in actual votes.

Posted by: Ace at 07:29 AM | Comments (219)
Post contains 697 words, total size 4 kb.

1 Sounds like they're badgering voters. I hope it backfires on them.

Posted by: wheatie at October 30, 2012 07:32 AM (ipkPX)

2 Bottom Line: Ohio Morons need to treat the state like we're behind ten. No complacency. Get out the vote. We need to win more than the margin of fraud.

Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 30, 2012 07:33 AM (kFnmp)

3 The likely voter screening is interesting. I'm new to this neighborhood and voted by mail in the primaries. Hence, I have never been to my polling place. So, although I know it's an elementary school nearby, I do not know the address. I know how to find the address, however, so I guess if I was polled I'd answer "yes, I know where my polling place is" even though I don't exactly know where it is.

Posted by: Y-not at October 30, 2012 07:33 AM (5H6zj)

4 This is the latest Dem spin to sooth their cult followers "Don't worry that Romney is ahead in national polls, its just 90% of people in Texas and Oklahoma etc. Barry will still win the electoral votes race as long as you vote"

Posted by: Palerider at October 30, 2012 07:35 AM (FYUWS)

5 Some historical comfort. But then, I know the MFM are lying like dogs on rugs with their polls which is even more comfort.

Posted by: eureka! at October 30, 2012 07:36 AM (cTjRR)

6 So, why is Nate Silver so out to lunch?

Posted by: Redd at October 30, 2012 07:36 AM (Lom3Z)

7 number muncher??

Posted by: soothie at October 30, 2012 07:36 AM (ZgBZU)

8 I wonder how many of the "already voted" responses were actually more like, "I've already voted so fuck off and let me eat my dinner in peace."

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at October 30, 2012 07:36 AM (pwyhn)

9 OH, gut says Romney by 7%

Posted by: Vic at October 30, 2012 07:37 AM (YdQQY)

10 1) Don't believe the Polls
2 ) Persuade others to vote
3 ) Then - Dance like nobody's watching

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 30, 2012 07:37 AM (XIsD/)

11 "But it's only 'demented' folks who question Nate Silver, the all-knowning statistics God! You guys are idiots for even LOOKING at national polls still! MORONS! READ TEH CONSTITUTION!" Or so says the guy in the link... He's got a PhD, you know. http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/national-polls-meaningless-stage-election-135415586.html

Posted by: El Ricko at October 30, 2012 07:38 AM (H1m77)

12 If I was in a swing state and my phone was ringing off the hook, I'd say I'd already voted, too- just to make them stop.

Posted by: parteagirl at October 30, 2012 07:38 AM (jxuun)

13 Ace, buddy, you have to learn to take things at face value, like me. When you go "investigating" "details", only bad things that conflict with my worldview can turn up.

Posted by: The Greginator at October 30, 2012 07:39 AM (a0nis)

14 Not that I disagree, but that was like tortured quantum physics kind of math.

Posted by: sophistahick at October 30, 2012 07:39 AM (UhXzR)

15 You know what will turn Ohio? Pizza delivery from Air Force 1.

Posted by: fluffy get wrapped around the Axel at October 30, 2012 07:39 AM (z9HTb)

16 4) Always wear sunscreen 5) Be kind to your knees

Posted by: 1998 Called, it wants its meme back at October 30, 2012 07:39 AM (Ec6wH)

17 I MUNCH letters. Remember ALPHABITS cereal? Remember UH OH SPAGHETTI O's?

Posted by: soothiewing plover at October 30, 2012 07:40 AM (ZgBZU)

18 There was actually an old DOS game called Number Munchers. Fun stuff. I had Super Munchers for my Macintosh Performa.

Posted by: JDTAY at October 30, 2012 07:41 AM (a0nis)

19 I'll take Romney by 5 in Ohio please Alex ...

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 30, 2012 07:41 AM (GvYeG)

20 Ohio: Romney by 1 or 2 when all the fraud is calculated. But more importantly, we will win 37-40 states. Don't worry. Just work.

Posted by: Truman North at October 30, 2012 07:42 AM (W4PwN)

21 speaking of "crunching" numbers... UE rate gonna get 'crunched' this Friday

Posted by: soothie at October 30, 2012 07:42 AM (NLH1M)

22 The best nookie I've ever had was in Ohio. Compelling and rich.

TMI?

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 30, 2012 07:42 AM (8sCoq)

23 Well over here in Mexifornia Gov Moonbeam and all the LAtino wanna be stars of yesteryear like James Olmos etc are pushing prop 30 Tax increase for the Hispanic children in schools . the deluge of spam and advertisement for the cause or La Raza is incredible...Nobody mentions a vocational program for the non-Harvard types, Auto Shop, Woodworking, Electrical, Plumbing, and Spray Painting I guess would be a good start..

Posted by: Clemenza at October 30, 2012 07:43 AM (Q8Pu5)

24 Whoa, the post was awesome. Now can I haz moar Leanne pics?

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 30, 2012 07:43 AM (ZUbgI)

25 btw, did gas spike or go down in your neighborhood on account of Sandy?

Posted by: soothie at October 30, 2012 07:43 AM (BUcLz)

26 I heard Obama is ahead in Ohio with early voters 2:1 over Romney. Is that true?

Posted by: Ed Anger at October 30, 2012 07:43 AM (tOkJB)

27
6) Remember to set your clocks back
7) Eat more fiber

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 30, 2012 07:43 AM (XIsD/)

28 I'm past thinking Obama will win Ohio (he won't).

My new fret is thinking one block in Cleveland could be without power next week and these shitbirts will tell us we have to extend the election for another week.

Also, there's already a shit ton of fraud likely occurring in Columbus.

(link)

Posted by: laceyunderalls at October 30, 2012 07:44 AM (pLTLS)

29 Sorta OT. Now hear rumors that RFG is aheaad in CO. Got a call from Romney team last night. I'll be working phones on Sat. We are in the home stretch.

Posted by: Infidel at October 30, 2012 07:44 AM (O/fK8)

30 Now, the point is, if someone says "I already voted," Hmmm. If I tell the Obamabots that I already voted, they'll leave me alone. But if I tell them that, I cannot fuck with them. Hmmmm. Decisions, decisions.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 30, 2012 07:44 AM (VtjlW)

31 uggg...no more poll dancing for me....I'm dizzy.

Posted by: Brian at October 30, 2012 07:44 AM (wTSvK)

32 28 That is true, like "Benghazi was a spontaneuous mob" true ...

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 30, 2012 07:45 AM (GvYeG)

33 TFG. Need moar coffee.

Posted by: Infidel at October 30, 2012 07:45 AM (O/fK8)

34 - @ Jones in CO
24 The best nookie I've ever had was in Ohio. Compelling and rich.
_____________________________________
My brothers dog is named Nookie and he lives in Ohio !

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 30, 2012 07:45 AM (XIsD/)

35 >Now hear rumors that RFG is aheaad in CO.

WTF is RFG

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 30, 2012 07:46 AM (8sCoq)

36 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a malignant traitor.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 30, 2012 07:46 AM (8y9MW)

37 "It is almost impossible to conclude that while the nationwide party-ID advantage of Democrats has dropped since the wave election of 2008, Ohio has actually increased over the last four years."

Saying something is impossible for Our Dear Leader is clearly racist.

Posted by: Chrissy Leg Tingles at October 30, 2012 07:46 AM (P2Ufm)

38 Hmmm. If I tell the Obamabots that I already voted, they'll leave me alone. But if I tell them that, I cannot fuck with them. Hmmmm. Decisions, decisions. I had an O-bot call for my wife 2 days ago. I told them she already voted. The caller sounded disappointed, like she already knew it wasn't for the SCOAMF.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 30, 2012 07:46 AM (ZUbgI)

39 number muncher??

My brother.

Posted by: Carpet at October 30, 2012 07:47 AM (z9HTb)

40 I wonder if NumberHumper is taken...

Posted by: soothie at October 30, 2012 07:47 AM (DlaLh)

41 Ohio: Romney by 1 or 2 when all the fraud is calculated.

But more importantly, we will win 37-40 states.

Don't worry. Just work.

Posted by: Truman North at October 30, 2012 11:42 AM (W4PwN)

----------- I see 33 and 318 EV, can't get to 37-40 but it sure would be great

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at October 30, 2012 07:47 AM (R8hU8)

42 OK are we talking about "nookie" nookie, or nookie "nookie"?

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 30, 2012 07:47 AM (GvYeG)

43 Just checking in while I sit I my car to charge my phone. House mostly ok here in Westfield NJ but the power has been out since 7:40 last night. I hear bad things about the town though its worse along the shore. Hope NYC and NJ morons are ok!!!!

Posted by: Doc at October 30, 2012 07:48 AM (h/rjC)

44 People are missing the forest for the trees. This is going to be a Romney blowout. All the writing is on the wall. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota are competitive? People are going to be in shock.

Posted by: Sb at October 30, 2012 07:48 AM (80w08)

WTF is RFG

TFG, need more coffee.

Posted by: Infidel at October 30, 2012 07:48 AM (O/fK8)

46 ot-sandy a caller on beck just said FEMA provides flood insurance... beck says they will say -- to help those that can't afford it... I say: conflict of interest the caller continues: "we tried to get the army corps of engineers to rebuild in our town to prevent future disaster/flooding. They weren't interested...

Posted by: 7 days at October 30, 2012 07:48 AM (LpQbZ)

47 44 OK are we talking about "nookie" nookie, or nookie "nookie"? Posted by: Honey Badger at October 30, 2012 11:47 AM (GvYeG) __________________________ Consider the place... it's probably - nookie with a wookie.

Posted by: tasker at October 30, 2012 07:48 AM (r2PLg)

48 Ace, finally catching up with his commentors, one week later.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 30, 2012 07:48 AM (gP402)

49 Of course, you could have linked our very own Dave in Fla who said the same thing previously.

http://scoamf.us/2W

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 30, 2012 07:48 AM (8y9MW)

50 Anyone getting their panties bunched up about early voting in Ohio, particularly what union thug Beckel had to say on The Five yesterday, relax.

That has been thoroughly discredited here in several threads by I believe both CAC and DaveinFla. per the state registrar's figures, only about half of what the polls are claiming have actually voted (17% vs. 33%). There was also some county by county data that suggests it ain't even close to breaking 2-1 for TFG.

Still nervous, but positive. Just gotta sprint across the finish line.

Posted by: Pete at October 30, 2012 07:49 AM (+GIS3)

51 This post should have been titled:

Ace Finally Gets A Clue

Posted by: davidinvirginia at October 30, 2012 07:49 AM (qEkGZ)

17 You know what will turn Ohio? Pizza delivery from Air Force 1.

---------

I'm not sure they can fit enough pizzas on Air Force 1 for *all* of Ohio.

Posted by: Anachronda at October 30, 2012 07:49 AM (FzhYM)

53 Posted by: Ed Anger at October 30, 2012 11:43 AM (tOkJB)
==================
Your concerny concerned concern is noted.

Now fuck off, you posted the same thing in the last thread.

Posted by: RoyalOil at October 30, 2012 07:49 AM (imtbm)

54 Just checking in while I sit I my car to charge my phone. House mostly ok here in Westfield NJ but the power has been out since 7:40 last night. I hear bad things about the town though its worse along the shore. Hope NYC and NJ morons are ok!!!! Posted by: Doc at October 30, 2012 11:48 AM (h/rjC) Doc any word on Metuchen?

Posted by: Thunderb at October 30, 2012 07:49 AM (Dnbau)

55 I wonder if NumberHumper is taken... Posted by: soothie at October 30, 2012 11:47 AM (DlaLh) _________________ Yes, essentially--Nate Silver.

Posted by: tasker at October 30, 2012 07:49 AM (r2PLg)

56
26 Whoa, the post was awesome. Now can I haz moar Leanne pics?

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 30, 2012 11:43 AM (ZUbgI)

I'll see what I can find. It might not be till tonight, after I get home.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 30, 2012 07:50 AM (da5Wo)

57 The key answer, as elsewhere, is 9% response rate.

And, I believe there was a state-level response rate examination and they were getting 3% in Oiho.

Combine that with the problems correcting the 'likely voter' pool with -any- sensibility and you've got problems. We know likely voter problems are true, because the 'early voting' polls and reality are in conflict. And reality wins any such conflict.

But it highlights 20% errors and then blithely mentions "Margin of error: 3%" or whatever. Hello? GARBAGE.

Posted by: Al at October 30, 2012 07:50 AM (MzQOZ)

58 >OK are we talking about "nookie" nookie, or nookie "nookie"?

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 30, 2012 11:47 AM (GvYeG)

we are talking about sweet languorous achey pillow-biting Honey keep it down you'll wake the neighbors connubial bliss

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 30, 2012 07:50 AM (8sCoq)

"I already voted" means "I don't want to talk with you."

I learned that walking my precinct after early voting started. I had the records in my hand showing they had not voted yet.

Posted by: Michael Rittenhouse at October 30, 2012 07:51 AM (2Oas0)

60 I'm not sure they can fit enough pizzas on Air Force 1 for *all* of Ohio.

^^^

This has already happened actually

(link)

Posted by: laceyunderalls at October 30, 2012 07:51 AM (pLTLS)

43

I wonder if NumberHumper is taken...

Or...NumberPumper.

Both likely already taken by Dem operatives, somewhere.

Posted by: wheatie at October 30, 2012 07:51 AM (ipkPX)

62 OK are we talking about "nookie" nookie, or nookie "nookie"? Posted by: Honey Badger at October 30, 2012 11:47 AM (GvYeG) we are talking about sweet languorous achey pillow-biting Honey keep it down you'll wake the neighbors connubial bliss Posted by: Jones in CO at October 30, 2012 11:50 AM (8sCoq) oh. my.

Posted by: Thunderb at October 30, 2012 07:51 AM (Dnbau)

63 any word on yankeefifth?

Posted by: phoenixgirl, Wearing her GIANTS jersey,team dagny at October 30, 2012 07:51 AM (Ho2rs)

64 romney live on FNC right now

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 30, 2012 07:52 AM (8sCoq)

65 the dude is presidential. I cannot wait for President Romney

Posted by: Thunderb at October 30, 2012 07:53 AM (Dnbau)

45 ...but the power has been out since 7:40 last night.

--------

Your precision excites and disturbs me.

Posted by: Anachronda at October 30, 2012 07:53 AM (NmR1a)

67 Intrade has Christie by 100%

''Atlantic City's mayor says he would love nothing better than to confront New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie "mano a mano."

Speaking on NBC's "Today" show Tuesday, Mayor Lorenzo Langford disputed Christie's criticism that Langford erred by allowing people to shelter on the barrier island rather than moving them inland.''

Posted by: Snidely Whiplash - Who Knows How To Have A War On Women at October 30, 2012 07:53 AM (feFL6)

68 I wonder if NumberHumper is taken... So Nate Silver is changing his handle "NumberFluffer"?

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 30, 2012 07:53 AM (ZUbgI)

69 Romney hawking the Red Cross. He really is a class act.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at October 30, 2012 07:53 AM (piMMO)

70 One word: Election Fraud. Better take WI and CO to be safe.

Posted by: toby928© for TB at October 30, 2012 07:53 AM (evdj2)

71 This only confirms what I've been saying:

Romney will take virtually every "swing" state.

Romney will win OH by AT LEAST 5 points, ruling out any "they cheated" bullshit.

Romney wins the nationwide PV by AT LEAST 10 points.

Romney wins the EC by at least 20 votes. (Probably more like 35 votes)

THAT SAID, do not get the cockiness. Power through and finish him!!!

Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 30, 2012 07:53 AM (wtvvX)

72
''Atlantic City's mayor says he would love nothing better than to confront New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie "mano a mano."

****

Please sell tickets!

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at October 30, 2012 07:53 AM (piMMO)

73 /rimshots from everyone!

Posted by: soothie at October 30, 2012 07:54 AM (Y4TdB)

74 There was actually an old DOS game called Number Munchers.

Good times. I spent hours playing that on an Apple IIGS. It was soothing. Stick it on "primes" and munch for hours.

It's a wonder I'm as normal as I am.

Did not realize that at that time that MECC was a for-profit software company owned by the state of Minnesota.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 30, 2012 07:54 AM (ZKzrr)

My polling place was changed...without any notice given.

It's a good idea to check on that. Now.

Wherever you are.

Posted by: wheatie at October 30, 2012 07:54 AM (ipkPX)

76 ''Atlantic City's mayor says he would love nothing better than to confront New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie "mano a mano."

Chris Christie would eat him in two bites, then burp to see what he tasted like.

Posted by: EC at October 30, 2012 07:55 AM (GQ8sn)

77 ''Atlantic City's mayor says he would love nothing better than to confront New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie "mano a mano." Speaking on NBC's "Today" show Tuesday, Mayor Lorenzo Langford disputed Christie's criticism that Langford erred by allowing people to shelter on the barrier island rather than moving them inland.'' Posted by: Snidely Whiplash - Who Knows How To Have A War On Women at October 30, 2012 11:53 AM (feFL6) whatever. Is he gonna talk about making AC a "chocolate " city? loser bitching that someone pointed out his incompetance

Posted by: Thunderb at October 30, 2012 07:55 AM (Dnbau)

78 Now Ace, if you keep this up poor old Gerg is gonna have all that semen curdle in his gut and get constipated. We wouldn't want to be responsible for that would we?

Posted by: maddogg at October 30, 2012 07:55 AM (OlN4e)

79 the dude is presidential.

I cannot wait for President Romney

****

Not simply "looking" presidential.

A man of substance who will call on Americans to give of their time and to love their neighbors AND who will get the country back on track fiscally and send a strong message to our enemies.

Why didn't we think of this before?

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at October 30, 2012 07:57 AM (piMMO)

My polling place was changed...without any notice given.

It's a good idea to check on that. Now.
Wherever you are.

That's why I voted mail in ballot. It's filled out and ready to be dropped off at the Clerk and Recorders office on my way to work on Tues. Don't trust the post office much either.

Posted by: Infidel at October 30, 2012 07:57 AM (O/fK8)

81 This has already happened actually

Is that legal in Ohio? It's not in Wisconsin. There were charges filed for bribing voters with BBQ.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 30, 2012 07:57 AM (ZKzrr)

82 zzz

Posted by: Gerry at October 30, 2012 07:57 AM (unT9y)

83 I can't wait to tweet every liberal I know: "As goes Ohio ..." on election night.

Posted by: Jean at October 30, 2012 07:57 AM (iy7de)

84 60 OK who has the cheerleader pics????

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 30, 2012 07:57 AM (GvYeG)

85 Looks like all Sherrif Barack has left is to ride into Rock Ridge, put a gun to his head and tell us to vote for him or else.

Posted by: Mongo at October 30, 2012 07:57 AM (q6BhK)

86 I am a happy moron. I just drove one of my employees - a 25 year old who has never voted - down to city hall to register and early vote. Chalk up votes for Romney/Ryan and Tommy Thompson here in WI. She may have been even happier than I was..

Finished my ORCA training last night. I'm going to early vote today so I have the day free next Tuesday.

Keeping busy helps me keep the rage blackouts from Benghazi at bay.

Posted by: Muad'dib at October 30, 2012 07:58 AM (KjlbF)

87 OK whohas the cheerleader pics????

****

BCochran

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at October 30, 2012 07:58 AM (piMMO)

88 Romney wins the nationwide PV by AT LEAST 10 points.

Romney wins the EC by at least 20 votes. (Probably more like 35 votes)

THAT SAID, do not get the cockiness. Power through and finish him!!!

You do know that wishcasting doesn't actually impart any magical powers which alter reality, yes?

Anyone who believes that the race isn't close right now is fooling themselves.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 30, 2012 07:58 AM (SY2Kh)

89 Now Ace, if you keep this up poor old Gerg is gonna have all that semen curdle in his gut and get constipated. We wouldn't want to be responsible for that would we?

Posted by: maddogg at October 30, 2012 11:55 AM (OlN4e)

Rod Stewart is my idol!

Posted by: Gerg at October 30, 2012 07:59 AM (/YJYi)

Still trying to figure out WHY this whole early voting thing is even constitutional.

States run the election, but the Constitution specificly says Congress "may' set the date... which they did.

IMO we should make Election day a National Holiday.... with ONLY those Serving the National Government able to get Abscentee ballots (military, diplomats).... and keep the polls open for 24 hours (From Midnight Eastern Standard time, to Midnight Eastern Standard time).

Add in picture IDs, and it would really help the validity of the election process.

Posted by: Romeo13 at October 30, 2012 07:59 AM (lZBBB)

91 90, Outstanding!

Posted by: IC at October 30, 2012 07:59 AM (a0IVu)

92 Dan Riehl continues to improve. He is still in the hospital but is on twitter.

Posted by: Redd at October 30, 2012 07:59 AM (Lom3Z)

93 Prayers, and best wishes for those in the path of the storm.
TV coverage: "It is really windy and wet out here. This storm will change things. Back to you, Chet."( I am SO glad I only see this unreal s**t rarely.)
On the polls front, everywhere, it seems, the same question is on people's lips: "Polls: are they right, or are they wrong? We ask random morons."

Posted by: Thorvald at October 30, 2012 08:00 AM (1V6Pv)

Let's not start pulling each other's pud just yet. Keep fighting like we're behind.

Posted by: Havedash at October 30, 2012 08:01 AM (ToMJU)

I don't pretend to understand exactly what Nate Silver calculates, but he apparently calculates the likelihood of Obama/Romney to win, in other words, the likelihood something will happen in the future. Polls are based upon what people say today they plan to do.

So Silver is taking the various states' electoral votes and giving each candidate votes depending on what he thinks each state will do. He thinks Obama has states which will add up to 270, and I believe it's mostly based upon what he thinks will happen in Ohio. So since he thinks Ohio will go to Obama he gives Obama a 75% chance to win. (If he thinks Obama will win Ohio by one vote he could think Obama had a 75% chance--get it?)

It is a strange calculation, not analogous to polls. Sort of like a weather forecast, with a 75% chance of rain. Just an educated guess but a GUESS. Not the same as 75% of people are for Obama or anything.

Posted by: Marta Richards at October 30, 2012 08:01 AM (7RqlS)

96 Is that legal in Ohio?

^^^

No. But they don't care if they pay a fine after the fact. Whatever gets the votes in - that's their motto.

Posted by: laceyunderalls at October 30, 2012 08:01 AM (pLTLS)

97 59, Al. To Nate and friends, reality is a colinearity error and to be avoided.

Posted by: Jean at October 30, 2012 08:01 AM (IS2o0)

98 Number muncher? Do you need my address or do you still have it?

Posted by: Sally Number at October 30, 2012 08:01 AM (YYyqq)

99 @92: Just saying what I believe to be true.

We will see in seven days....

Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 30, 2012 08:01 AM (wtvvX)

100

Posted by: runninrebel at October 30, 2012 11:59 AM (N/1Dm)

It is best to savor the tears of those who cannot be salvaged.

Posted by: maddogg at October 30, 2012 08:02 AM (OlN4e)

101 I'm phoning my R congressman, actually not my current rep due to redistricting, but the one on whose campaign I worked in 2010 when he got elected. I need a way to work my phone from my NY home on those Ohio voters in the GOTV action.

Posted by: The littl shyning man at October 30, 2012 08:02 AM (PH+2B)

102 You know what would be great? If Gov. Christie had one of those sign language people next to him, only instead of translating his words, s/he translated his thoughts.....with gestures we ALL could understand.

Posted by: Foxhunter at October 30, 2012 08:02 AM (uEm7J)

103 I'm not a Romney guy and I'm still skeptical about what impact he'll have on DOOM, but when observing the guy work it's quite obvious that he's competent, intelligent, and he understands the gravity of the office

---

Romney is a leader. Obama is a whiner.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 30, 2012 08:03 AM (Hx5uv)

104 Whatever Romney's faults, I enthusiastically voted for him, if for no other reason other than just because he doesn't hate America. Thats a 100% improvement over ChoomDaddy.

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 30, 2012 08:03 AM (GvYeG)

105 Urgent Storm Relief: Clothing needed. A. Weiner claims pants keep getting washed away in storm.

Posted by: USA at October 30, 2012 08:04 AM (RIg+t)

106 "NumberMuncher" does sound vaguely salacious.

Posted by: Waterhouse at October 30, 2012 08:04 AM (w+lzM)

107 But progs will never observe him in any depth. They will simply bring their poorly drawn cartoon over and superimpose it onto him. Then they'll be reviled and disgusted by their cartoon for eight years. Fuckin' hell. Posted by: runninrebel at October 30, 2012 11:59 AM (N/1Dm) Who cares what progs think?

Posted by: Oldcat at October 30, 2012 08:04 AM (rzSn3)

108 I don't pretend to understand exactly what Nate Silver calculates ______________ His dick ratio proportional to his head circumference when derived from the radius of his anus.

Posted by: tasker at October 30, 2012 08:04 AM (r2PLg)

109 But progs will never observe him in any depth. They will simply bring their poorly drawn cartoon over and superimpose it onto him. Then they'll be reviled and disgusted by their cartoon for eight years.

The meme in my office this morning is that Romney will be a good leader during the Zombie Apocalypse because he's already a zombie (followed by obligatory jokes about head shots. Sigh.)

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 30, 2012 08:05 AM (ZKzrr)

110 if I lived my life by what the progs think I would be miserable

Posted by: Thunderb at October 30, 2012 08:05 AM (Dnbau)

111 Apropos of the Dem.-Commies, back in the day, William F. Buckley, Jr., formed (I think I remember hearing about this) the ad hoc committee to horse-whip Drew Pearson. That Drew Pearson was not the football player, but a newspaper columnist and probably a Fifth Columnist for Stalin. It is good to horse-whip Stalinists.
No one, of course, would advocate taking a horse-whip to a sitting member of Congress, but...
http://preview.tinyurl.com/9rbkgce

Posted by: Thorvald at October 30, 2012 08:05 AM (1V6Pv)

112 Speaking of whining Obama, I see he has had his feelings hurt twice in the last day or two. First it was mean old Romney talking about Jeep being built by the Chinese and second when people have been suggesting that there was some sort of cover-up on Benghazi. It was not just some sort of cover-up. It was the Larry, Moe, and Curly Barack cover-up.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 30, 2012 08:06 AM (Hx5uv)

113

99 Let's not start pulling each other's pud just yet. Keep fighting like we're behind.

Yep...especially in light of this storm.

I'm sure that Team Barky is figuring out ways to exploit this storm, in every area that is being affected.

It makes me sick.

Posted by: wheatie at October 30, 2012 08:06 AM (ipkPX)

114 @102 Jean,
No. To Nate, we're all the rubes buying snake oil. He's hit on a way to 'do predictions' without having to worry about the pesky "You were off by 25% in Oioho!!!" blowback. Just judge the actual result as ON/OFF as opposed to 'percent for person A'.

It irritates me -almost- as much as TFG.

Posted by: Al at October 30, 2012 08:06 AM (MzQOZ)

115 ''Atlantic City's mayor says he would love nothing better than to confront New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie "mano a mano."

He wants to go hand to hand with him

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 30, 2012 08:07 AM (1Jaio)

116 Progs don't actually think at all. They just conform their brain activity to match a politically correct pattern. That ain't thought.

Posted by: maddogg at October 30, 2012 08:07 AM (OlN4e)

117 113 divided by 2 ...

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 30, 2012 08:07 AM (GvYeG)

118 News Flash! Super Storm Sandy is causing men in San Francisco to eat each other. There's a canibalistic mob gathering on Folsom Street right now. They are ripping each other's clothes off, taking body parts into their mouths, and consuming bodily fluids. It's an awful scene. Shep Smith is on his way to report on the carnage first hand. Reports are that this may be the new normal for San Francisco. Damn that storm.

Posted by: Havedash at October 30, 2012 08:09 AM (ToMJU)

119

Heeeeelloooo Ladies.

As always todays number for munching will be 69, and my letter will be U.

Posted by: NumbersMuncher at October 30, 2012 08:09 AM (t06LC)

120

This post should have been titled:

Ace Finally Gets A Clue

One of the lesser-known Nancy Drew adventures.

Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at October 30, 2012 08:09 AM (zF6Iw)

121 Now fuck off, you posted the same thing in the last thread. Posted by: RoyalOil at October 30, 2012 11:49 AM (imtbm) Ha ha! I saw it posted about a hundred times in the last two days and it was really getting on my nerves. So I decided it was my turn to aggravate somebody else.

Posted by: Ed Anger at October 30, 2012 08:09 AM (tOkJB)

122 65 any word on yankeefifth? Posted by: phoenixgirl Hi, PG, I emailed him yesterday but haven't heard back. He is in lower Manhattan and they are without power. Maybe he even got out of town.

Posted by: real joe at October 30, 2012 08:09 AM (PD2ad)

123 Jay Cost had a similar point last night on Twitter re: polls and late deciders (based on exit polling) in OH in 2004. He showed data from a week before the election that had Kerry leading in 6/8 polls, some of them substantially. Then he discussed the significant break towards Kerry on Election Day. Essence here being: one or the other was very wrong.

Al @59: The 3% response rate is, I'm figuring, enhanced, shall we say, by people responding that they've voted in the hopes that it is the end of their polling agony. That's why we're getting EV rates that are double the facts on the ground. So the 3% response rate is compounded by a 30-50% lie rate.

Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at October 30, 2012 08:09 AM (XrGnJ)

124 @ebertchicago This might be a good time for Obama to speak on climate change.

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at October 30, 2012 08:10 AM (DGIjM)

125 Not sure what to make of the polls this go around. I saw one that had Romney only 1 point ahead in Missouri.Next thing they'll be saying Utah is a toss-up...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 30, 2012 08:10 AM (9+ccr)

126 His dick ratio proportional to his head circumference when derived from the radius of his anus. _________ Oh I forgot to add-- multiplied by the drag coefficient of his own shit.

Posted by: tasker at October 30, 2012 08:10 AM (r2PLg)

127 Last legit poll I saw out of MO has R up like 10 ...

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 30, 2012 08:11 AM (GvYeG)

128

/rimshots from everyone!

All right!!!

Oh. . .you said rim shots, didn't you?

Posted by: Number Pumpin' Gerg at October 30, 2012 08:12 AM (zF6Iw)

129 Based on what he posted about selling water for sexual favors, I'm thinking yankeefifth is in his happy place.

Posted by: Muad'dib at October 30, 2012 08:12 AM (KjlbF)

130 Oh I forgot to add--

multiplied by the drag coefficient of his own shit.

Posted by: tasker at October 30, 2012 12:10 PM (r2PLg)

That all sounds way, way too complicated......

Posted by: Nate Silver at October 30, 2012 08:12 AM (/YJYi)

131 Hot Air has a post to the effect that although he is well ahead, Obama can't get over 47% in Oregon, Land of the pacific Northwest Loon.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 30, 2012 08:12 AM (Hx5uv)

132 http://tinyurl.com/92fbwkk Two thoughts: 1. Why is there no similar pic of Prez in Situation Room during Benghazi? 2. Guess who's the one guy not drinking out of a styrofoam cup?

Posted by: USA at October 30, 2012 08:12 AM (RIg+t)

133 @ebertchicago This might be a good time for Obama to speak on climate change.

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at October 30, 2012 12:10 PM (DGIjM)

This might be a good time for Ebert to disappear

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 30, 2012 08:12 AM (1Jaio)

134 I don't want to be mistaken for a Concern Troll, but don't underestimate the power of the electoralogical terror Obama's constructed here in Ohio. His campaign is not kidding that they've never NOT been campaigning and organizing here. It has been five years solid now of voter registration and turnout exercises. Even with a huge uptick, which I fully expect, in Republican turnout, it will be difficult to match him in this particular state. He has just turned a vast swathe of the non-electorate into possible, even likely voters. It will take the large majority of independents and heroic turnout for our side to win here. I think we can do it. I'm canvassing at least once a week, and working all day on Election Day with Mitt's ORCA task force, so I'm doing my part, as are lots of others. But it is going to hard, and harder still to put it beyond the Margin of Lawyer. So let's the rest of y'all get it in gear and get an EV margin larger than Ohio if you want to be sure.

Posted by: Doug Winship at October 30, 2012 08:12 AM (S6I/9)

135 I'm sure that Team Barky is figuring out ways to exploit this storm, in every area that is being affected.
It makes me sick.
Posted by: wheatie at October 30, 2012 12:06 PM

This won't be over for another week. One of the worst failings of the so-called conservative pundits -- right after their need to be "fair" to Choom Boy at the expense of truth -- is their unwillingness to see that Osama Obama and his co-conspirators do not play by the rules. When it suits them, they make shit up as they go along.

Be prepared for fresh outrages, lies and deceptions as the extent of their upcoming loss becomes more clear to them. Like cornered rats, they will ramp up the viciousness the closer they get to the end.

And it won't be all words, either. The Traitor-in-Chief has lots of weapons in his arsenal, thanks to the idiotic 52%, and anyone who thinks he won't use them all is a fool.

Right now, the polls don't mean shit, even if everyone is fixated on them. What matters is being ready and willing to repel the attacks that are surely coming.

Posted by: MrScribbler, banned at TepidAir at October 30, 2012 08:13 AM (ZgX/g)

136 I think Ohio has been so badgered and scrutinized that it's almost now out of reach for accurate polling.

Romney will likely win Ohio because it just hasn't radically changed its demographics over the last 10 years like some states (ie Nevada or Louisiana). Also, the most recent election in 2010, Republicans dominated across the ballot. So 2008 was not some "permanent change" where it forever became a blue leaning state like Michigan.

Both sides will get their respective votes out, but absent some MAJOR fraud, there seems to be more Republican-leaning voters and Reagan Democrats that live there than "Obama Democrats" and almost every poll shows Romney handily winning independent voters.

Still, it is going to come down not media buys, but ground game, at this point in Ohio. Spending an extra $100 million in ads would probably do almost nothing at this point, which is why I think Romney should broaden the map instead with media.

Posted by: McAdams at October 30, 2012 08:13 AM (rgG4U)

137 The "first gay president" is looking for a bounce from Sandy. Oh well, he always lets the women do the heavy lifting for him.

Posted by: Cricket at October 30, 2012 08:14 AM (DrC22)

138 Except the race was better than the polls indicated.

Posted by: Jollyroger at October 30, 2012 08:14 AM (t06LC)

139
I'm sure that Team Barky is figuring out ways to exploit this storm, in every area that is being affected.
It makes me sick.

Posted by: wheatie at October 30, 2012 12:06 PM (ipkPX)

You can damn sure bet that there's going to be a try to extend voting in areas affected by the storm. They will use the chaos to manufacture the votes needed to try to keep obama in our White House. And how dare any poll watcher question someone's identity! These people have been thru unimaginable suffering, and now the evil right is trying to keep them from voting! How cruel. Look for every dirty trick the left can pull to exploit this storm. I hope the right is ready for this. IT WILL HAPPEN.

Posted by: Havedash at October 30, 2012 08:14 AM (ToMJU)

140 Rush saying that Romney is buying ad time in Philadelphia. Yes, Philadelphia.

Posted by: Countrysquire at October 30, 2012 08:14 AM (QB3JR)

141 I've reached poll burn-out....let's vote!

Posted by: BignJames at October 30, 2012 08:14 AM (rlFQ+)

142 @116 Apropos of horse whips, recall, for a moment, the role gutta percha played in the attack by Rep. Brooks on Sen. Sumner in 1856.

Posted by: Thorvald at October 30, 2012 08:15 AM (1V6Pv)

143 I feel good. Some MFer stole my empty chair in my front yard.

Think I am going to hang one from a tree. Let em try and get that.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 30, 2012 08:15 AM (wR+pz)

144 Sounds like they're badgering voters. I hope it backfires on them.

Two visits so far with a total of 3 OFA zombies have been to this "registered democrat's" door so far within a week.

Yea, they're badgering people very hard to early vote.

Next cycle I'll have been on the books for two years as a registered Democrat...then the fun begins...I'll do some light volunteer work to initiate a long term project to infiltrate the local apparatus.

A noob like me would never be trusted having just registered this year, so I'm taking it slow so as not to raise any suspicions.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 30, 2012 08:15 AM (2OEmz)

145 Is there an echo in here?

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 30, 2012 08:16 AM (9+ccr)

146 Behold the mighty troll swatter!

Posted by: BignJames at October 30, 2012 08:17 AM (rlFQ+)

147 >You can damn sure bet that there's going to be a try to extend voting in areas affected by the storm.

except that the areas hardest hit are already safely in Obama's column: New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware

unless I'm completely wrong

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 30, 2012 08:18 AM (8sCoq)

148 This is unreal ! ! !
http://tinyurl.com/94o8fhw

Fake actors in a nursing home threating to cock punch Romney...

Produced by Micha Moore (#1 McRib Fan )

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 30, 2012 08:18 AM (XIsD/)

149 It's like Groundhog Day in here.

Posted by: Spypeach at October 30, 2012 08:18 AM (pwTow)

150 And just like that, the troll is gone...like Obama a week from now.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 30, 2012 08:18 AM (2OEmz)

151 Yeah, you keep telling urself that, Bagdad-Bob. Your candidate already abandons Ohio. In a desperate attempt to find an alternative path to victory he deludes himself into thinking that Pennsylvania and Minnesota are in play. This is what a dying campaign looks like!

Posted by: Obamaism4America at October 30, 2012 08:18 AM (yn8yQ)

152 These numbers don't work in my model, so I don't use them.

Did I tell you I am a statistician?

I an not just a hack Daily Kos Kid.

No really, Greg agrees, 70% chance Obama wins.

Posted by: Nate Silver at October 30, 2012 08:18 AM (wR+pz)

153 @ebertchicago This might be a good time for Obama to speak on climate change.

^^^

@McCainBlogette So are we still going to go w/climate change not being real fellow republicans?

Posted by: laceyunderalls at October 30, 2012 08:18 AM (pLTLS)

154 What Jones said - is NY going to be bluer than before? Who cares?

Posted by: real joe at October 30, 2012 08:19 AM (PD2ad)

155 Some scrunt on the news declared we're in the midst of a national emergency due to Sandy.

*looks around*

Not seeing anything going on here. Sounds more like a regional emergency.

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at October 30, 2012 08:19 AM (BuSM8)

156 RomneylosesOhio at October 30, 2012 12:16 PM (Xa2if) real or sock he keeps getting smaller Romney loses big to Romney loses Ohio whats next? Romney loses this guy who just wet his pants?

Posted by: Thunderb at October 30, 2012 08:19 AM (Dnbau)

157 So Ace is doing the same thing he did in 08. Crushing trolls like cockroaches!

Posted by: USA at October 30, 2012 08:19 AM (RIg+t)

158 Okay, this is getting laughable.

Look, troll, you're not convincing anybody, and whichever cob-logger is wielding the BH3K isn't letting your comments stay up longer than a couple of seconds.

Just go away.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 30, 2012 08:19 AM (8y9MW)

159 Gerg, give it up. You aren't going to convince any of us to stay home on election day.

Posted by: real joe at October 30, 2012 08:20 AM (PD2ad)

160 And now "Fats" Moore has found some ancient scrunt threatening to cock-punch Romney if he wins. Her withered old bones will probably shatter instead.

Posted by: Larsen E. Whipsnade at October 30, 2012 08:20 AM (6BgmB)

161 @ebertchicago This might be a good time for Obama to speak on climate change.

^^^

@McCainBlogette
So are we still going to go w/climate change not being real fellow republicans?

---

I'm going with the storm was caused by a Youtube video, one with LOLCATS.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 30, 2012 08:20 AM (Hx5uv)

162 To make a long story short.

GET OUT AND VOTE, Morons.

EVERYWHERE.

Posted by: © Sponge at October 30, 2012 08:20 AM (UK9cE)

163 So are we still going to go w/climate change not being real fellow republicans?

Can we kick her out of the party, yet?

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 30, 2012 08:20 AM (8y9MW)

164

Let's hope that CAC saved the election projections we all made months ago.

The NY Times might be looking for a replacement for Nate Silver.

Posted by: jwest at October 30, 2012 08:20 AM (ZDsRL)

165 You can damn sure bet that there's going to be a try to extend voting in areas affected by the storm. except that the areas hardest hit are already safely in Obama's column: New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware unless I'm completely wrong Posted by: Jones in CO at October 30, 2012 12:18 PM (8sCoq) you are not worng

Posted by: Thunderb at October 30, 2012 08:21 AM (Dnbau)

166 god lord - wrong

Posted by: Thunderb at October 30, 2012 08:21 AM (Dnbau)

167 154 This is unreal ! ! !
http://tinyurl.com/94o8fhw

Fake actors in a nursing home threating to cock punch Romney...

Produced by Micha Moore (#1 McRib Fan )

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 30, 2012 12:18 PM (XIsD/)

The GOP should run that with a split screen of the princess gabby giffords "tone" and "violently charged atmosphere" crapfest.

Posted by: Havedash at October 30, 2012 08:21 AM (ToMJU)

168

140 This won't be over for another week. ...

If we're lucky.

I'm bracing myself for it taking weeks before we know the 'final results'.

I live in a dark red state, so it will be over here fairly quickly.

But then we will have to watch all the bullshit going on in the 'contested areas'.

Posted by: wheatie at October 30, 2012 08:22 AM (ipkPX)

169 To make a long story short. GET OUT AND VOTE, Morons. EVERYWHERE. I will give you an eight for the use of caps but will have to deduct a point and a half for failure to include ORCA and failure to insult everyone.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 30, 2012 08:22 AM (VtjlW)

170 Climate change? So we've never had any big hurricanes before? and Meggie mu, fuck off...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 30, 2012 08:22 AM (9+ccr)

171 The NY Times might be looking for a replacement for Nate Silver.

His position would just be downsized out of existence.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 30, 2012 08:22 AM (2OEmz)

172 This might be a good time for Obama to speak on climate change.

Yes, because there were never hurricanes before industrialization.

Posted by: Waterhouse at October 30, 2012 08:22 AM (w+lzM)

173 At some point, you run into the finite limit of proxies, don't you?

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 30, 2012 08:22 AM (8y9MW)

174 I'm up to 5 followers. Jones in CO still gaining acceptance!

@edzeppelin91

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 30, 2012 08:22 AM (8sCoq)

175 and Meggie mu, fuck off...

But first ...

Posted by: Waterhouse at October 30, 2012 08:23 AM (w+lzM)

176 except that the areas hardest hit are already safely in Obama's column: New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware

And suddenly proggs see the value of the Electoral College...or they would, if thy were capable of logical thought.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 30, 2012 08:23 AM (ZKzrr)

177 I am gargling Obama's semen, just like I did in 2008.

Posted by: gerg, the auto-troll at October 30, 2012 08:24 AM (PD2ad)

178 This troll seems diagnosably schizophrenic. It keeps trying the same thing over and over expecting a different result...

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 30, 2012 08:24 AM (2OEmz)

179 139 Bill Cunningham (Sunday night radio host out of Cincy, former federal DA) has been an eeyore since day one: he just didn't think the R's could pull it out in light of the mammoth recent expansion of government dependency.

This past Sunday he changed his tune, to my pleasant surprise. His observation is that Ohio is overwhelmingly a rural, small-town state, and that those small towns have been eviscerated by the Obama economy.

So now he's all "Romney wins Ohio and the presidency." Hope he's right!

Posted by: Enby at October 30, 2012 08:25 AM (ptlfZ)

180 Well, the good news? The head ewok must have power and internet, so NYC is OK?

How about some first hand shit ace?

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 30, 2012 08:26 AM (wR+pz)

181 Okay OKAY dammit!! I admit it. The climate does indeed, for a fact, without doubt, change. Therefore, climate change exists. oh wait... There's a very ancient word for it, too. Weather.

Posted by: soothie at October 30, 2012 08:26 AM (LPRBM)

182 It won't be over quickly. After Romney wins, the JEF ill be lame duck and will do all kinds of crazy things with EO and pardons. And the hard core statists, who are lifers in government work, will still be there after Romney takes office. And even in the intell and military communities, there are some hard core statists. A thorough house cleaning is in order.

Posted by: Thunderb at October 30, 2012 08:27 AM (Dnbau)

183

150...Posted by: @PurpAv at October 30, 2012 12:15 PM (2OEmz)

You're a brave soul, Purp.

Just be careful with doing shit like that...those people play dirty.

Posted by: wheatie at October 30, 2012 08:27 AM (ipkPX)

184 Jones in CO: The best nookie I've ever had was in Ohio. Me too. Small world.

Posted by: houndofdoom at October 30, 2012 08:27 AM (6vCmv)

185 I have been saying this for about a month now. Since 1916, when the Republican has won the popular vote, the Republican candidate has overperformed in Ohio by an average 3.1%. The Dems have underperformed, on average, -1.5% and the GOP has overperformed, on average, +1.8% of the National Voting percentage. Only three Republicans have underperformed: Harding in 1920 (he ran against fellow Ohoian James Cox), Nixon in 1972, and GW Bush in 2004.

Posted by: perdogg at October 30, 2012 08:27 AM (oSdsj)

186

Sniff. What's that smell? Fragrant, fresh, a little saucy?

Why, it's a new thread!

Posted by: Jim in Virginia at October 30, 2012 08:28 AM (wuXkS)

187 Can we kick her out of the party, yet?

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 30, 2012 12:20 PM (8y9MW)

First, she must show the boobehs.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 30, 2012 08:28 AM (da5Wo)

188 Rain? It's a bitch.

Posted by: Noah at October 30, 2012 08:29 AM (wR+pz)

189

Not hearing anything about storm damage in PA...

Anyone know what's going on there?

Posted by: wheatie at October 30, 2012 08:29 AM (ipkPX)

190 What could Obama possibly do to stop hurricanes? What, Roger Ebert? Tell me one thing Obama or anyone on Earth could do stop hurricanes from occuring?

Posted by: soothie at October 30, 2012 08:30 AM (DlaLh)

191 Here are some problems with Nate Silver's methods:

1) Multiplying probabilities works when the probabilities are for independent random events. This is something I tried to explain in 2000 and 2004 and when people talk about paths to victory. As I recall, in both elections Bush had to win several very close states, whereas Gore would win if he could just flip one of them. If you have five states showing 50-50 in the polls and one guy has to win just one, you tend to think he's very likely to win because the odds of a coin coming up the same way five times in a row is very low.

Those states, however, are not independent coin tosses. Rather, they are more like boats sitting in a harbor. If the water level rises (national polls), then all those boats are going to rise a little.

2) These models are based on polls. They *cannot* therefore be better than the polls themselves because of garbage in, garbage out. Theoretically, a bunch of polls is better than a single poll because you reduce the likelihood of error. Even so, you *could* have a poll that was more accurate by itself than the resulting model of lumping all the polls together. Think of having a mutual fund versus owning one stock: yes, the mutual fund will track the market better and reduce your risk, but it doesn't mean your best stock in your fund didn't outperform the fund itself.

So the second way to look at error is putting a bunch of eggs in your basket does not negate that some eggs are better than others. In terms of the election, if one poll is using better methods than others (for example, Gallup), all you have done is polluted your results by putting other polls in with it. Again, purely random samples you don't have to worry about that--more is better--but with polling you don't have truly random samples, just various techniques for trying to achieve them.

------

Finally, a quibble that makes me suspect Silver is not as professional as his followers make out: He uses too many significant digits. I learned in my science and math courses that you never express an answer in more digits than you have certainty for. So any calculation involving a poll that has error in the second digit should have only two digits in the answer.

If Silver uses *any* poll as input to his model that has a margin of error in the second digit, he should not be calculating odds except to two digits. If he's a pundit, who cares? But if he's selling himself as a statistician that's relevant.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at October 30, 2012 08:30 AM (DnLl2)

192 Even so, you *could* have a poll that was more accurate by itself than the resulting model of lumping all the polls together.

You can easily have a poll better than the entire ensemble. Ace's commentary on "Likely Voters" at the top covers all the ingredients: Some polls have no "Likely Voter" filter. Or an ineffective one. Other polls do a better job.

So: Competent Poll + Cruddy Poll / 2 is not better than Competent Poll on its own. Particularly when there are plenty of incompetent polls.

Another way: Poo + Pie is not an improvement. Adding more poo, -or- more pie still doesn't help.

Posted by: Al at October 30, 2012 08:36 AM (MzQOZ)

193 From a friend of mine on FB: I'm having a crisis of faith right now. First, I was going to see President Obama speak in Youngstown. Then, he thought it was more important to go to Florida so I was going to see Bill Clinton speak in Youngstown. I rushed to the Covelli Center after work. It looked like the parking lot was less than half full but the police had all roads to the center blocked off. I drove around for fifteen minutes and finally found a place to park. I walked about 3/4 mile in a very cold rain only to be told by one serious prick at the door that it didn't matter if I had a ticket or not, it didn't matter if my wife had my empty seat beside her or not, I wasn't getting in. Now I have to decide whether to vote for Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, or not at all. I replied to at least vote for Romney cause at least it won't be wasted.

Posted by: Bill R. at October 30, 2012 08:37 AM (QnRSM)

194

There is this one anomaly that has to be taken into consideration re Ohio: The unemployment rate (all caveats understood -- but with elections we're talking about perception, not reality) is 3.6 points down from 2008, and about 6 points down from its peak; that could mitigate the dynamic of Rs overperforming the national average. I hate to say it, but it's going to be a cliff-hanger, barring a flip in MN and WI or PA.

Posted by: letitbeme at October 30, 2012 08:39 AM (i5FjP)

195 On the Pennsylvania front, Romney campaigns releases a memo.

"As the Romney-Ryan message continues to resonate and GOP momentum continues to build, we are adding Pennsylvania to the long list of states where we are expending significant resources in order to bring real recovery to the country, while continuing to implement and fund full-scale efforts in all the target states."

Link to R memo in my nic

Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at October 30, 2012 08:42 AM (DQMcq)

196 Just be careful with doing shit like that...those people play dirty.

Yea, they're vicious, but they're also incredibly stupid. The bad thing is I'm going to have to do somethings that are distasteful while creating a suitable legend and generating cred.

I may have to actually help some smaller local Dem fish try to win while hunting larger prey. In two years I want to be in a position to at least hear some of the internal Dem apparatus gossip. That should allow me to better choose targets.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 30, 2012 08:43 AM (2OEmz)

197 196 wheatie - Gov said it could have been worse, offered to help NY & NJ.

Posted by: Baldy at October 30, 2012 08:43 AM (opS9C)

198 We are so concerned how this might hurt President Obama and his re electrion chances. We hope he is alright and this doesn't hurt him too much. We are praying for you President Obama............

Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro,VT at October 30, 2012 08:45 AM (48wze)

199

Climate change? So we've never had any big hurricanes before?

Hurricanes have never hit the northeast before. Except for Hazel and Diane in the 1950's, and the great Long Island Storm of 1938. Other than that, this is unprecedented and obviously a sign- nay, a dire warning- of climate change.

Posted by: Jim in Virginia at October 30, 2012 08:45 AM (wuXkS)

200 We also happy to see President Obama made it safely back to Washington to oversee our efforts. We would have felt bad if he were trapped somewhere and could lead the effort to help people with his FEMA and National Guard units.

Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro,VT at October 30, 2012 08:49 AM (48wze)

201 real headline on yahoo when I just logged in: "Why you shouldn't believe national polls"

Posted by: barbarausa at October 30, 2012 08:50 AM (WWeoI)

202 I don't want to be mistaken for a Concern Troll, but don't underestimate the power of the electoralogical terror Obama's constructed here in Ohio. His campaign is not kidding that they've never NOT been campaigning and organizing here. It has been five years solid now of voter registration and turnout exercises.
Even with a huge uptick, which I fully expect, in Republican turnout, it will be difficult to match him in this particular state. He has just turned a vast swathe of the non-electorate into possible, even likely voters. It will take the large majority of independents and heroic turnout for our side to win here.
I think we can do it. I'm canvassing at least once a week, and working all day on Election Day with Mitt's ORCA task force, so I'm doing my part, as are lots of others. But it is going to hard, and harder still to put it beyond the Margin of Lawyer. So let's the rest of y'all get it in gear and get an EV margin larger than Ohio if you want to be sure.

Posted by: Doug Winship at October 30, 2012 12:12 PM (S6I/9)

Kind of sucks for them, then, that by every measure the results they are getting are far below 2008 levels, as was put up in this very post.

Now, bye bye Moby.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 30, 2012 08:51 AM (z1N6a)

203 PurpAv, you're awesome. ...Just watch your back, man.

Posted by: wheatie at October 30, 2012 08:59 AM (ipkPX)

204 letitbeme: My understanding--and it could be wrong--is much of Ohio's improvement has come since electing a GOP governor. Also, as with national numbers, the unemployment rate does not capture the actual job situation because of the same reasons as in the national.

Not to negate your point because a low number still means *something*, people hear it, and it could redound to Obama's advantage. But Nevada has much higher unemployment than the national and that has not changed the state from favoring the incumbent.

I still think whoever wins Ohio wins. Romney can win it.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at October 30, 2012 08:59 AM (DnLl2)

205

204,196 wheatie - Gov said it could have been worse, offered to help NY NJ.

Thanks, Baldy.

Posted by: wheatie at October 30, 2012 09:01 AM (ipkPX)

206 There is this one anomaly that has to be taken into consideration re Ohio: The unemployment rate (all caveats understood -- but with elections we're talking about perception, not reality) is 3.6 points down from 2008, and about 6 points down from its peak; that could mitigate the dynamic of Rs overperforming the national average. I hate to say it, but it's going to be a cliff-hanger, barring aflip in MN andWIor PA.

Posted by: letitbeme at October 30, 2012 12:39 PM (i5FjP)

Too bad for them it hasn't. Democratic early vote advantage is well down from 2008.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 30, 2012 09:02 AM (z1N6a)

207

@McCainBlogette

So are we still going to go w/climate change not being real fellow republicans?

I question the words 'fellow republicans' in the above sentence.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 30, 2012 09:05 AM (75f1S)

208 All that expensive prep and ground game don't mean squat when people think you suck.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 30, 2012 09:08 AM (2OEmz)

209

"In Ohio, Republicans tend to outperform their share of the national vote: In the last six presidential elections, only in 2004 has the Republican candidate performed worse in Ohio than he did nationally, and even that was a difference of only 0.3 percentage points. In the other five elections, the GOP candidate outperformed his margin of the national vote by an average of 3.1 percentage points." I think I know who originally wrote that. In any event, the Ohio-national correlation even is stronger than that. In the past 12 presidential elections only in the Goldwater wipeout did the GOP nominee underperform in OH his national vote share. IOW, whatever Romney gets nationally he'll at least match that in OH or at worse he'll be within a hair's breadth of matching it. If Romney has 51% of the national vote Romney will win Ohio. Period. End of story. No further analysis necessary.

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at October 30, 2012 09:34 AM (pmsMR)

210 Rocky Mountain Revolt.

First of all, we all know CO went big for Obama in 2008.
We are being told that CO is blue or leaning blue in 2012.

From the CO SecState, here is Colorado's latest breakdown of party affiliation as of 10/19/2012:

Dem     871,712
GOP     912,456
UAF     882,063

We can assume that Obama is going to get nearly zero of the GOP voters, will lose some of his own Dems, and UAF (unaffiliated) voters are breaking +20 for the GOP nationally (and that is only going to get worse for TFG as the Benghazi leaks continue).

What I've seen is a demoralized Dem base, an excited GOP base, and independents burned out and feeling they were conned.

Put this state in the R column.

Posted by: Joe Mama at October 30, 2012 09:39 AM (JJ+PT)

211 Wow. This post sounds like the same thing I've been saying for the last month. But what do I know? I've only been active in Ohio politics for 25 years and work for an Ohio-based private polling firm.

Welcome to the party, pal.

Posted by: trumpetdaddy at October 30, 2012 10:05 AM (dcoFe)

212 Romney is going to win Ohio by 2 to 3 points.

Posted by: mnjg at October 30, 2012 10:12 AM (e3hs8)

213

"I don't want to be mistaken for a Concern Troll, but don't underestimate
the power of the electoralogical terror Obama's constructed here in
Ohio. His campaign is not kidding that they've never NOT been
campaigning and organizing here. It has been five years solid now of
voter registration and turnout exercises.

Even with a huge uptick, which I fully expect, in Republican
turnout, it will be difficult to match him in this particular state. He
has just turned a vast swathe of the non-electorate into possible, even
likely voters. It will take the large majority of independents and
heroic turnout for our side to win here.

I think we can do it. I'm canvassing at least once a week, and
working all day on Election Day with Mitt's ORCA task force, so I'm
doing my part, as are lots of others. But it is going to hard, and
harder still to put it beyond the Margin of Lawyer. So let's the rest of
y'all get it in gear and get an EV margin larger than Ohio if you want
to be sure.

Posted by: Doug Winship at October 30, 2012 12:12 PM (S6I/9)"

In 2012, the democrat absentee ballots request drop by 132,000 compared to 2008 and those of the Republican rose by 6,000 compared to 2008... Therefore in the absentee ballots alone the democrats in 2012 lost 138,000 votes compared to 2008... It is a loss rate of 30%... Even if a quarter of this loss rate is carried on the November 6 2012 vote means that Obama is certain to lose Ohio...

Posted by: mnjg at October 30, 2012 10:19 AM (e3hs8)

214 198

Thank You Thank you Thank you for pointing this about in regards to significant digits - I noticed this the other day

It is absurd to publish numbers showing Obama has a 75.55% probability of winning - it may sound "scientific" to the DU/Kos crowd but it has no real value

Posted by: Big Star, 98.213% sure about everything at October 30, 2012 11:13 AM (0upWk)

215 Doesn't all the "early voting" make it easier for some people to vote twice?

Posted by: Gerry Rivers a/k/a Geraldo at October 30, 2012 11:16 AM (yWDpP)

216 Yes - let's all celebrate Romney's landslide victory of truth.

Posted by: Rominator at October 30, 2012 03:10 PM (IOWVc)

217 okey dokey - open up the champagnee

Posted by: paulette at October 30, 2012 03:34 PM (IOWVc)

218 @24 The best nookie I've ever had was in Ohio. Compelling and rich. TMI? ----- Photos, or it didn't happen.

Posted by: jbarntt at October 30, 2012 07:27 PM (UNFot)

219 I'm in Ohio, unofficial, but where I am (suburbs outside of Cleveland), Romney signs are outpacing Obama by 3 or 4 to 1. Rarely see a bumper sticker. Of course in the inner cities I'm sure as usual Obama is ahead there, but this time it doesn't seem like the suburbs are going to be pulling the lever for Obama too much.

Posted by: Ring at October 30, 2012 07:29 PM (iWnmm)

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