November 06, 2012
— Ace This is a little complicated, but the polls have been claiming around 35% of the Ohio population has voted early. Rasumssen even pegged it at 40%.
Conservatives have been saying for a while that the polls were skewed because too many people were saying they'd voted early. Either they were a self-selecting unrepresentative sample -- perhaps so jazzed about voting they were much more eager to talk to a pollster for a half an hour or 40 minutes -- or a lot of people were just claiming "I already voted," even though they didn't.
Assuming Ohio will produce a 2004 level of turnout, early voting in fact accounts for only 32% of all votes which will be cast. Assuming a 2008 level, early voting accounts for only 31% of all votes which will ultimately be cast.
And note that if voting exceeds 2008, somehow, that pushes the fraction of early voters down even further.
Now, those who voted early skew towards Obama while those who have yet to vote skew to Romney. So the relative proportion of these two cohorts affects the final vote count.
The next important piece of data is what the polls consistently report: Obama leads by huge margins among early voters but trails Romney among those who say they will vote on election day. This inverse in voting segments is why the proportion of early votes in the total votes — and that virtually every poll overestimated this proportion — is so tantamount. In most polls (which usually only have Obama leading by a small margin, although some give him a more comfortable ~+5%), lowering the percentage of early votes in the polling sample means lowering Obama’s lead drastically. And when Obama’s lead is only one or two percentage points, that can mean handing the election to Mitt Romney.
It also makes the polls suspect.
But Nate Silver shrugged it off:
In a discussion on Twitter, Silver and Wasserman focused largely on the surprise changes in turnout in many of Ohio’s counties. While total early voting in Ohio only increased by 2.44% from 2008, early voting in counties that voted heavily for Kerry/Obama declined 4.1% while counties that voted heavily Bush/McCain increased their early voting by a shocking 14.39%. Wisserman, while still predicting an Obama victory, suggested that trend meant a tighter race in Ohio than expected and suggested it might undercut Nate Silver’s famous forecast. Nate Silver’s response: “I’ll stick with the 538 forecast in OH. I disagree that the early voting data there provides much reason to doubt the polls.”
While some people are turning to counting the votes, Nate Silver is still just looking at the polls.
I wonder if he'll keep that up through, say, Thanksgiving.
More from Bryan Preston.
Posted by: Ace at
11:37 AM
| Comments (347)
Post contains 470 words, total size 3 kb.
And Silver is a dipshit. Just like every one else, he isn't accounting for huge oversampling of Democrats and relies upon the same voter turnout model as in '08.
Posted by: Little Lebowski Urban Acheiver at November 06, 2012 11:39 AM (8LCi0)
Posted by: Nate Silver tomorrow at November 06, 2012 11:40 AM (a0nis)
Posted by: Witchfinder at November 06, 2012 11:40 AM (pLTLS)
Posted by: dantealiegri at November 06, 2012 11:40 AM (HXWlL)
Posted by: Pre-Mature Mitt Victory Celebration at November 06, 2012 11:41 AM (F6KtL)
Posted by: Justamom's having an election day bash at November 06, 2012 11:41 AM (erYRT)
You have to be a window-licking sub-retard to seriously think that '08 will be replayed. Like, 'you should be on lithium.' So why do so many do it? It amazes me.
Posted by: dawnfire at November 06, 2012 11:41 AM (eEeH7)
He is a moonbat hack promoted by the moonbat media.
Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 06, 2012 11:41 AM (hlUJY)
Yes, his history as a sabermetrician plays a huge part of why I distrust him. Just like in baseball, he isn't taking a number of things into account that don't show up in the raw numbers.
Posted by: Little Lebowski Urban Acheiver at November 06, 2012 11:41 AM (8LCi0)
Posted by: steevy at November 06, 2012 11:42 AM (9XBK2)
It's always been moronic. And the Gallup estimate in swing states was three percent response.
It doesn't sound like a huge fucking deal "Hey, just multiply!"
But it takes the entire endeavor from 'almost real science' all the way to 'Dude, I can do better with chicken entrails.'
Posted by: Al at November 06, 2012 11:42 AM (MzQOZ)
Posted by: tasker at November 06, 2012 11:42 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: Dr Spank at November 06, 2012 11:42 AM (b+jI9)
Posted by: NWConservative at November 06, 2012 11:42 AM (Km8Wu)
Posted by: DarrenODaly at November 06, 2012 11:43 AM (wDAwT)
Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 11:43 AM (vWZrj)
Then, after a few years have gone by and Libtardistan is on the brink of collapse, we invade it and seize their half again, restoring the country once again as a contiguous whole."
This is how you do it. It wouldn't even be hard. It's not like the granola-crunching hippie overlords and their criminal underclass will maintain a proper military.
Posted by: dawnfire at November 06, 2012 11:43 AM (eEeH7)
Calling all rocket scientists:
A woman wearing an MIT t-shirt was barred from voting Florida, according to a local report. MIT stands for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, not Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
Posted by: A B at November 06, 2012 11:44 AM (PHb2k)
Posted by: Lady in Black voting with her lady parts to send TFG packing! at November 06, 2012 11:44 AM (lTVJy)
Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 11:44 AM (P6QsQ)
Does anybody think that we'll actually know who won this tonight? I think it will be weeks. Too many lawyers on both sides ready to get into the game. Even if it is a blowout, no way SCOAMF concedes. No class piece of shit that he is.
Posted by: clonefan at November 06, 2012 11:45 AM (83v+9)
I can't relax.
Because I'm a Boinger.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNKCPk1tl9Q
Posted by: Waterhouse at November 06, 2012 11:45 AM (w+lzM)
Posted by: DCPensFan at November 06, 2012 11:45 AM (ma/2m)
Posted by: Cricket at November 06, 2012 11:45 AM (DrC22)
Posted by: Justamom's having an election day bash at November 06, 2012 11:45 AM (erYRT)
Posted by: Matt at November 06, 2012 11:45 AM (ljiM/)
Saying that you had already voted shoots you right through all the likely voter screens on most if not all of the big polling outfits. Which means if you lie about it, that screws up their sample and results big time, and likely explains the nonsensical nature of most of the polling this cycle.
Posted by: davidinvirginia at November 06, 2012 11:46 AM (qEkGZ)
Posted by: Skags at November 06, 2012 11:46 AM (ahsqI)
Posted by: Ed Anger at November 06, 2012 11:46 AM (tOkJB)
What about Pennsylvania?
Will those NY votes that are being allowed there be added to the total for PA?
Does anyone know?
Posted by: wheatie at November 06, 2012 11:46 AM (ICEh3)
Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 11:46 AM (vWZrj)
That was me.
Yes, granola hippies are malnourished and therefore easy to pick up and throw. It would be a cakewalk. They'd already have banned guns and weapons. The best they could do is to somehow make the tracks on our tanks slip by letting themselves get pulped underneath one when they tried to form a human chain.
Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 11:46 AM (GQ8sn)
Romney in Pittsburgh.
http://instagram.com/p/Rs3tLYsclk/
--------
That's a whole lotta raaaacisssts.
Posted by: Lady in Black voting with her lady parts to send TFG packing! at November 06, 2012 11:46 AM (lTVJy)
Posted by: Paladin at November 06, 2012 11:46 AM (hxLER)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 06, 2012 11:47 AM (nUH8H)
Posted by: JackStraw at November 06, 2012 11:47 AM (TMB3S)
Posted by: The Mega Independent at November 06, 2012 11:47 AM (MnKNu)
Trying to decipher Nate's gobbldygoop is like trying to talk to a hard-core AGW fascist. They hear or see nothing but themselves.
Posted by: Soona at November 06, 2012 11:47 AM (4bdZW)
Posted by: Cricket at November 06, 2012 11:47 AM (DrC22)
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 06, 2012 11:47 AM (PHb2k)
Posted by: dawnfire at November 06, 2012 03:41 PM (eEeH7)
Some of them have models with a *heavier" Dem sample than in 2008. Those are not polls; they're propaganda.
Posted by: davidinvirginia at November 06, 2012 11:47 AM (qEkGZ)
As I understand it, he did a lot with advanced statistics in baseball. So it should be clear to him that you can't just look at the top-line. Baseball guys, for instance, know that the "RBI" stat is practically worthless for determining the skill of a player. Why? Because it relies on far too many outside factors, namely being the skill of their teammates, their ability to get on base. A player who's a better raw hitter may have less RBI's because he plays on a team of scrubs than the worse player who's always got guys on first and third when he steps up to the plate.
Silver completely fails to translate this knowledge over to his poll analysis. He simply looks at the top line and averages them out. It's completely anti-statistics.
In short: whoop-dee-doo you simple-minded jackass.
Posted by: Nventor at November 06, 2012 11:47 AM (+yL85)
Stacks of people to greet--
Romney in Pittsburgh.
http://instagram.com/p/Rs3tLYsclk/
Posted by: Miss Marple at November 06, 2012 11:48 AM (GoIUi)
Philadelphia is now officially a Banana Republic.
Posted by: Ombudsman at November 06, 2012 11:48 AM (HqXYa)
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at November 06, 2012 11:48 AM (0cwsf)
Posted by: Sheriff Joe at November 06, 2012 11:48 AM (MAhUT)
Posted by: Paul at November 06, 2012 11:48 AM (xwVUV)
Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 11:48 AM (vWZrj)
Posted by: The Mega Independent at November 06, 2012 11:48 AM (MnKNu)
Posted by: NWConservative at November 06, 2012 11:48 AM (Km8Wu)
, and CNN’s Candy Crowley (223). This is not to argue a crazy conspiracy among the Washington crowd, just to point out that this year, for some reason, the polls didn’t influence the Beltway expectations — why, it’s almost as if poll results showing good news for Democrats are taken more seriously than ones showing good news for Republicans.
Then of course, you have the individual pollsters who sometimes go . . . well, haywire. HereÂ’s from my piece about Zogby, who became the liberalsÂ’ pollster of choice in 2002 and 2004:
In 2002, his final polls were pretty lousy. In Minnesota, Zogby predicted Democrat Walter Mondale over Republican Norm Coleman by 6 points; Coleman won by 3. In Colorado, Zogby picked Democrat Ted Strickland over GOP incumbent Wayne Allard by 5; Allard won by 5. In Georgia, Zogby picked Democrat Max Cleland over Republican Saxby Chambliss by 2; Chambliss won by 7. In Texas, ZogbyÂ’s final poll had Republican John Cornyn over Democrat Ron Kirk by 4 points; Cornyn won by 12. ZogbyÂ’s final poll in the Florida gubernatorial race had Jeb Bush winning by 15, but only three weeks earlier he had Bush winning by only 3. Bush won by 13 points.
Late afternoon on Election Day [2004] —awfully late for a final call—Zogby predicted that Kerry would win Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico (0 for 4!) and get at least 311 votes in the Electoral College, while Bush was assured of only 213. (The remaining 14 electoral votes were too close to call.)
There’s no other way to say it: The Big Z’s final polls were garbage. His final poll had Colorado too close to call; Bush won by 7 points. He had Florida by a tenth of a percentage point for Kerry and “trending Kerry”; Bush won by 5 points. Zogby had Bush winning North Carolina by 3; the president won John Edwards’s home state by 13. Zogby had Bush leading Tennessee by 4; the president won by 14. Zogby called Virginia a “slight edge” for the GOP; Bush won by 8. In West Virginia, Zogby predicted a Bush win by 4; the president won by 13. And in the vital swing state of Wisconsin, Zogby had Kerry up by 6; the final margin was 1 point.
Zogby’s dramatically far-off results were, I would argue, fueled by a combination of hubristic overconfidence in his own ability to read the mood of the electorate and the desire to tell his biggest fans what they want to hear. I’ll let you conclude if you think that description might apply to any other pundit you see cited a lot these days — including myself.
Besides pollsters seeing what they want to see, we must recall the fairly recent example of Research 2000, which may not have actually conducted the surveys that it announced to the world. HereÂ’s a good summary of that scandal:
It came after Daily Kos published a statistical analysis of Research 2000's polls that alleged a series of statistical anomalies among the results. That analysis led Moulitsas to conclude that the weekly poll Research 2000 had conducted and run on Daily Kos during 2009 and 2010 "was likely bunk."
Moulitsas added that Ali had "refused to offer any explanation" for the anomalies or turn over raw data as requested. Daily Kos lawyer Adam Bonin vowed to "file the appropriate discovery requests" in order to determine whether Ali had fabricated data.
In a rambling public response published last July, Ali characterized "every charge" made by the Daily Kos lawsuit as "pure lies, plain and simple." He promised that "the motives as to why Kos is doing it will be revealed in the legal process."
But by agreeing to a settlement, Ali leaves open the question of whether his data were in fact fabricated.
The same July statement also included a comment that raised eyebrows among pollsters (typos in original):
Yes we weight heavily and I will, using te margin of error adjust the top line and when adjusted under my discretion as both a pollster and social scientist, therefore all sub groups must be adjusted as well.
After sending that statement, Ali disappeared from public view. Attempts to contact his email account temporarily bounced, his Twitter account went silent and the Research 2000 website started redirecting to a Wikipedia entry on opinion polls. Ali started posting again to his Twitter account two weeks ago, although he has so far not mentioned either the lawsuit or his polling business.
Now, not every pollster is making up their results; probably none of the polls we read about today are made up of whole cloth. But this case suggests that the most paranoid scenario — a pollster not really collecting data, just pretending to and telling the client some combination of what they want to hear and what sounds realistic — can happen.
I mention all of this because I hear from a lot of readers — up through this past weekend, in fact —some variation of “EEK! X poll shows my candidate down!”
Well, your candidate may be down. But you should know better than to panic over a poll, and you should know that thereÂ’s nothing anyone could or should be telling you to make you stop being as active as you are in these final hours. You should be checking the samples, to see if the partisan breakdown makes sense to you. If the percentage of Democrats in the sample is higher than the percentage of Democrats in the 2008 exit polls, some skepticism is warranted.
That’s how you find CNN releasing a poll Sunday night that has it tied, 49 percent to 49 percent, despite Mitt Romney winning independents by 22 points, 59 percent to 37 percent. Why? “Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.”
If the electorate is D+11 Tuesday, RomneyÂ’s doomed. If RomneyÂ’s winning independents by 22, heÂ’s winning in a landslide.
Posted by: Countrysquire at November 06, 2012 11:48 AM (QB3JR)
There is a 100 % chance that Romney supporters will blow their load early.
Posted by: Tate Gold, Nate Silver's Cousin at November 06, 2012 11:49 AM (F6KtL)
Ed.
At least one of your entries is wrong. Texas polls close at 7 PM CST. That's 8 PM EST, not 9.
And with that, I'm off to pick up my little girl. Probably won't be back until tomorrow.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 06, 2012 11:49 AM (nUH8H)
But - he said something today which is pertinent - "do you really think fewer Republicans today are going to vote for Romney, than McCain? And - do you really believe more independents and Democrats are going to vote for Obama than in 2008?" Leaving aside tainted/timid polls, tainted/timid pundits, and fear, I think Limbaugh is on to something here.
Posted by: tubal at November 06, 2012 11:49 AM (BoE3Z)
Posted by: Dave S. at November 06, 2012 11:49 AM (UvR6d)
Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at November 06, 2012 11:49 AM (JVCVF)
Silver, "Well nine of my friends responded to my question of should I buy. Five said yes so I assumed they knew what they were talking about."
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 11:49 AM (SkUim)
This is from the Smart Guys Upstairs
Relax we have this.
Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:43 PM (vWZrj)
Still got my fingers crossed. Sorry, but I can't relax until that bastard is out of office next January.
Posted by: davidinvirginia at November 06, 2012 11:49 AM (qEkGZ)
Take a picture on a camera that is the results of decades of research and engineering and turn it into shit.
Instagram: The best thing in media since Paris Green.
Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at November 06, 2012 11:49 AM (jo069)
Posted by: soothsayer at November 06, 2012 11:49 AM (jUytm)
Posted by: Lady in Black voting with her lady parts to send TFG packing! at November 06, 2012 03:44 PM (lTVJy)
I voted yes. Past time to get rid of that antiquated crap left over from the Pitchfork Ben Tillman days.
Posted by: Vic at November 06, 2012 11:49 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: That Obama Phone woman at November 06, 2012 11:49 AM (B/VB5)
Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 11:49 AM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: Nate "Chip" Silver at November 06, 2012 11:49 AM (QKKT0)
As when I voted for Reagan, while still a registered democrat, in 1980.
Posted by: Miss Marple at November 06, 2012 11:51 AM (GoIUi)
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Whistling right through your troposphere. at November 06, 2012 11:51 AM (Gk3SS)
Posted by: Tate Gold, Nate Silver's Cousin at November 06, 2012 11:51 AM (F6KtL)
Posted by: occam's brassiere at November 06, 2012 11:51 AM (ekF3x)
Posted by: JollyRoger at November 06, 2012 11:51 AM (t06LC)
59wheatie,i would guess not. i say that because thier registered in ny. so thier votes would count for NY not PA.
Posted by: Paul at November 06, 2012 03:48 PM (xwVUV)
-----------
Let's hope they're not counted twice!
That would be the D-rat way.
Posted by: wheatie at November 06, 2012 11:51 AM (ICEh3)
Posted by: clonefan at November 06, 2012 03:45 PM (83v+9)
Loosen up the tinfoil hat a few notches there, partner. If it's a blowout and everyone knows it, he'll concede, no matter how classless he is. He's not going to sit in the oval office clutching the desk and saying "Mine! Mine! Mine!" until they drag him out. Seriously--real world scenario. Even his advisers and inner circle would abandon him at that point. This will be over by midnite. Probably earlier.
Posted by: Double Wide at November 06, 2012 11:51 AM (J8jzK)
Posted by: dfbaskwill at November 06, 2012 11:52 AM (71LDo)
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at November 06, 2012 11:52 AM (0cwsf)
Posted by: LIGuy at November 06, 2012 11:52 AM (HYD/Y)
Damn, after voting in Chicago we still gotta go over the border and vote in Wisconsin. Be a dear and keep those polls open for us, will ya? Don't disenfrancheese us!
Posted by: Busloads of Chicago Residents [/i] at November 06, 2012 11:52 AM (feFL6)
We wouldn't need one, man. We'll have a Department of Peace.
Posted by: A Granola Crunching Hippie at November 06, 2012 11:52 AM (QKKT0)
I'm not VIC, but I'm in SC and voted to put the Lt. Gov and Gov on one ticket (like most other states do).
My completely WAG about this is that the measure will pass, though I think if it does, it doesn't go into effect until 2016.
Posted by: Looking closely at November 06, 2012 11:52 AM (PwGfd)
Posted by: JackStraw at November 06, 2012 11:53 AM (TMB3S)
Posted by: soothsayer at November 06, 2012 11:53 AM (jUytm)
Just listened to Billy Cunningham of Ohio on Hannity radio show--was so excited he could hardly talk. GOP off the hook in Ohio (spoke to registrar ov voters and others) and he just heard from a friend in Naples, Fla who reported the same thing there.
I know Cunningham is an up guy, but he has been saying for days and repeated just now that it won't take long at all to call OH for Mitt tonight.
Come, on, VA!!!!!!!
Posted by: gayle in ca at November 06, 2012 11:53 AM (wgmUB)
Posted by: NWConservative at November 06, 2012 11:53 AM (Km8Wu)
Posted by: wheatie at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (ICEh3)
__
Our governor, legislature and one US Senator are Republican. I doubt they'll allow the NY votes to count in the PA total. Especially when they are all keenly aware of PA's tight race.
p.s. The only storm concession I'm aware of is Corbett stating that absentee ballot applications would be extended one day.
Posted by: kallisto at November 06, 2012 11:53 AM (jm/9g)
---
Good, I made the right call. Wasn't sure what to do on that.
Posted by: Lady in Black voting with her lady parts to send TFG packing! at November 06, 2012 11:53 AM (lTVJy)
Allen, are you coming with your wife today to distribute the cheesecake?
(sorry I asked this three threads back, but as my luck is, two new posts went up pretty much immediately after I posted)
Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at November 06, 2012 11:53 AM (GrtrJ)
Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 11:53 AM (vWZrj)
His words.
May it be so.
Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 11:54 AM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: Ian S. at November 06, 2012 11:54 AM (B/VB5)
Posted by: Rugs and Carpets Local 4561 at November 06, 2012 03:52 PM (w+lzM)
--
Are we back on the carpet versus hardwood debate?
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at November 06, 2012 11:54 AM (39GM8)
Posted by: soothsayer
Do a chocolate/vanilla pudding swirl and enjoy them both.
Posted by: Roy at November 06, 2012 11:54 AM (VndSC)
Normally, I read stories like this and part of my brain thinks, "Well, given such-and-such assumptions, I could see how they could reach this conclusion, even though it's totally wrong."
This time, I read Silver's quote through a couple times and thought, "What the @#$%????"
Posted by: T at November 06, 2012 11:54 AM (esIfP)
Posted by: My Vote Counted, Dammit! at November 06, 2012 11:54 AM (IMY0F)
Posted by: Walkers! at November 06, 2012 11:54 AM (C4dFv)
Posted by: blehzor at November 06, 2012 11:54 AM (s9K+V)
If Romney pulls it off that's a 200%+ gain, though it may take a few weeks for the final certification.
I've got dry powder. . .should I buy some shares?
Anyone?
Posted by: Looking closely at November 06, 2012 11:54 AM (PwGfd)
Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 11:54 AM (vWZrj)
Posted by: The History of Liquid at November 06, 2012 11:54 AM (Wvtly)
And actually "in the past" as opposed to a bunch of random opinions about future actions.
If he wanted to think about this like baseball he'd have to deal with a full 3/4 of the at bats, not randomly distributed, refusing to tell you the result of the play.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Trying to have Faith and not worry, no matter the outcome. at November 06, 2012 11:54 AM (0q2P7)
Posted by: Elize Nayden at November 06, 2012 11:54 AM (bonPh)
Posted by: The Mega Independent at November 06, 2012 11:55 AM (MnKNu)
Romney in Pittsburgh.
http://instagram.com/p/Rs3tLYsclk/
"Who did they bring?"
"It looks like everybody."
Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 06, 2012 11:55 AM (JxIkO)
Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at November 06, 2012 11:55 AM (GrtrJ)
Posted by: Serious Cat at November 06, 2012 11:55 AM (UypUQ)
Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (vWZrj)
-----------
That's what Reince was saying this morning. He said, "You know, we don't just guess on this stuff. We have numbers. We have data. We have analysis. We know who to target and how to target them."
Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 11:55 AM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: Red Shirt at November 06, 2012 11:55 AM (FIDMq)
I am pretty certain Ace said that last night on his prediction thread.
Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at November 06, 2012 03:51 PM (OWjjx)
No shit? Well, never mind then. I was, uh, pressing sheets last night. ( Go away for just a little while to attend to, er - basic needs - sheesh!)
Posted by: tubal at November 06, 2012 11:55 AM (BoE3Z)
Posted by: Matt at November 06, 2012 11:55 AM (ljiM/)
Posted by: Sgt. York at November 06, 2012 11:55 AM (UU6uJ)
Posted by: rickb223 at November 06, 2012 11:56 AM (GFM2b)
Posted by: maddogg at November 06, 2012 11:56 AM (OlN4e)
Posted by: gayle in ca at November 06, 2012 11:56 AM (wgmUB)
Y'all are lying, just like yer candidate, Romney.
Who wants a president who lies? Who wants a guy who puts one finger in a cookie jar, slides it in and out repeatedly, then inserts a second finger in the cookie jar when it's gotten nice and warm and slippery?
Wait, what were we talking about??? I like cookies.
Posted by: Bubba at November 06, 2012 11:56 AM (TOk1P)
----
I think I remember 2018. At our polling location, I did see posters everywhere stating that come Jan 1, 2013, picture ID will be absolutely required.
Posted by: Lady in Black voting with her lady parts to send TFG packing! at November 06, 2012 11:56 AM (lTVJy)
All done with Orca. Wound up with a standard strikelist due to some issue with the app. Was stationed at a 55+ community in SE Pa. By 2:30 almost 500 of the ~720 voters for the precinct had already voted.
Realizing that the site would have 90+% of the living voters i called it a day and took my logbook to the Romney location. Voters new to the location this cycle were often not in the logbook.
Them old folks kept me busy averaging a voter a minute. The only out-loud opinions being voted were pro Romney. Only saw one voter with Democrap garb on.
Long day, but i did my little bit.
Posted by: buzzsaw90 at November 06, 2012 11:56 AM (kzejo)
They called Ohio for Bush by 11PM in 2004. He won by 100,000.
Romney is tracking for a 200K - 250K win in Ohio.
It will be called tonight.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 06, 2012 11:56 AM (JxIkO)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 11:57 AM (r4wIV)
Posted by: H Badger at November 06, 2012 11:57 AM (n/0Nw)
Posted by: Bart who lurks with SMOD 2012, master of his domain at November 06, 2012 11:57 AM (he2LC)
And the dems, if they have it, would lie anyway.
Posted by: Miss Marple at November 06, 2012 11:57 AM (GoIUi)
This your first election? Polls don't close until 7 or 8 EST and calls don't get made until after that.
Posted by: Sgt. York at November 06, 2012 11:57 AM (UU6uJ)
Fairfax, Virginia.
Posted by: Washington Nearsider at November 06, 2012 11:57 AM (u0MHM)
Posted by: Fritz at November 06, 2012 11:57 AM (/ZZCn)
Posted by: tasker at November 06, 2012 11:57 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (JVCVF)
---------------------------------------------
Chill out. VA will be fine.
Posted by: Soona at November 06, 2012 11:57 AM (4bdZW)
Posted by: He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named at November 06, 2012 11:57 AM (LpQbZ)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 11:58 AM (r4wIV)
Posted by: JackStraw at November 06, 2012 11:58 AM (TMB3S)
Posted by: The Mad Analyst at November 06, 2012 11:58 AM (hZ4ZR)
Posted by: ace at November 06, 2012 11:58 AM (LCRYB)
Posted by: tasker at November 06, 2012 11:58 AM (r2PLg)
99 Posted by: wheatie at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (ICEh3)
__
Our governor, legislature and one US Senator are Republican. I doubt they'll allow the NY votes to count in the PA total. Especially when they are all keenly aware of PA's tight race.
p.s. The only storm concession I'm aware of is Corbett stating that absentee ballot applications would be extended one day.
Posted by: kallisto at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (jm/9g)
----------
Thanks, kallisto.
That helps my nerves a bit, to be reminded of the R-gov, and R-legislature there.
I hope they will be able to keep a lid on the fraud.
Posted by: wheatie at November 06, 2012 11:58 AM (ICEh3)
Btw, ACE.. I will have a goofy gif about Nate Silver ready to go tonight if what we are seeing comes to fruition. I'd be delighted if it could be included in a 'pudding' thread.
Posted by: Serious Cat at November 06, 2012 11:58 AM (UypUQ)
He said Romney is blowing away Bush (00,04) numbers.
It will be historic GOP turnout.
President Romney!
Posted by: nhwingnut at November 06, 2012 11:58 AM (DhgCF)
Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 11:58 AM (vWZrj)
Posted by: edj at November 06, 2012 11:58 AM (+QKfp)
Here's hoping for all the Dems' desperate attempts, the most they do is make their defeat look slightly less humiliating.
Posted by: lael at November 06, 2012 11:58 AM (tUcg9)
Posted by: Countrysquire at November 06, 2012 11:58 AM (QB3JR)
Posted by: Matt at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (ljiM/)
Exactly. It was a madhouse. At 0530. Mostly Romney supporters.
Of course, they probably all had jobs to get to too.
Posted by: Washington Nearsider at November 06, 2012 11:59 AM (u0MHM)
Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 06, 2012 11:59 AM (JxIkO)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at November 06, 2012 11:59 AM (vCK/R)
Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 11:59 AM (vWZrj)
Then, after a few years have gone by
and Libtardistan is on the brink of collapse, we invade it and seize
their half again, restoring the country once again as a contiguous
whole."
This is how you do it. It wouldn't even be hard. It's not like the granola-crunching hippie overlords and their criminal underclass will maintain a proper military.
Posted by: dawnfire at November 06, 2012 03:43 PM (eEeH7)"
====
It's actually even easier. Look at where all the water and food for the cities comes from. Within a month, the cities would be barren wastelands.
Look at the chaos Sandy is causing and multiply it by a thousand.
I'm about there. I'm so fucking sick of hearing how superior liberals are to the rest of us that I can't even stand the sound of their voices. Exceptions made for when they are crying about elections they lose, of course.
Posted by: BS Inc. at November 06, 2012 11:59 AM (P2Ufm)
Posted by: THE day at November 06, 2012 11:59 AM (LpQbZ)
Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at November 06, 2012 11:59 AM (JVCVF)
Posted by: Evilpens at November 06, 2012 11:59 AM (ck76k)
Posted by: maddogg at November 06, 2012 03:56 PM (OlN4e)"
God loves balance. So he created fire and water. Day and night. Man and woman. Thus when God created the honey-badger, Nate Silver followed.
Posted by: Elize Nayden at November 06, 2012 11:59 AM (bonPh)
Posted by: rickb223 at November 06, 2012 11:59 AM (zji3t)
We select an 'ette to be given to Star Khan Priebus as a offering for his continued guidance.
Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 11:59 AM (GQ8sn)
Posted by: PR at November 06, 2012 11:59 AM (KHo8t)
Posted by: Up with people at November 06, 2012 11:59 AM (kzFo5)
The raw numbers are much more useful in baseball because your sample size is huge. You've got 30 teams playing 168 regular season games/year. Polling a quadrennial election with data gleaned from a 9% response rate is a totally different animal. Particularly when the 9% that respond are demonstrably different from the rest of the voting population - as indicated by being dumb enough to waste their time talking to pollsters. By the way, can that 9% number be constant? Does it start out at 9% and get smaller as the election drags on, or is that an inferred average over the duration of the polling season? My hunch is that the number of people willing to keep talking over the last couple of weeks is even smaller and less reliable.
Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at November 06, 2012 12:00 PM (+lsX1)
Posted by: ace at November 06, 2012 12:00 PM (LCRYB)
Posted by: tasker at November 06, 2012 12:00 PM (r2PLg)
Romney in Pittsburgh.
http://instagram.com/p/Rs3tLYsclk/
Revenge of the Bitter Clingers! That is just an awesome photo! Thanks to tasker for the original post!
Posted by: Miss Marple at November 06, 2012 12:00 PM (GoIUi)
You KNOW she's a Romney voter. That's commitment.
Posted by: Washington Nearsider at November 06, 2012 12:00 PM (u0MHM)
http://tinyurl.com/aluvrpt
About how Gallup and Rasmussen have Republican voters outnumbering Democrat voters for the first time . . . ever.
Hey we all need a couple of posts to raise our spirits a bit.
Posted by: Jcw46 at November 06, 2012 12:01 PM (SP4jC)
Posted by: Up with people at November 06, 2012 12:01 PM (kzFo5)
Posted by: Jenny at November 06, 2012 12:01 PM (Bowr9)
Posted by: soothsayer at November 06, 2012 12:01 PM (jUytm)
Posted by: THE day at November 06, 2012 12:01 PM (LpQbZ)
Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 12:01 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: H Badger at November 06, 2012 12:02 PM (n/0Nw)
Inside polling is potentially better because it should use tighter screens on likely voters. It may (or may not) use better sample sizes too.
But the main reason its better is because the ones commissioning the polls have (or should) have an agenda of finding the truth, rather than making headlines or boostering one party.
Posted by: Looking closely at November 06, 2012 12:02 PM (PwGfd)
Posted by: steevy at November 06, 2012 12:02 PM (9XBK2)
so if I bought a share of Mitt @ $2.98 and he wins, then I get back $10, for a profit of $7.02?
Is that right?? Yep.
Posted by: rickb223 at November 06, 2012 12:02 PM (zji3t)
God, I am now getting depressed. Reading the blog at the Philly Inquirer and they are interviewing voters. So many saying they are voting for Obama because of abortion and Planned Parenthood. One college student had to drop out because his family could not afford tuition anymore, and said he is voting for Obama because he thinks he will help lower the costs of college. One person I think I know, said she was 50-50 but decided to vote for Obama because of his stand on women's issues.
I am ashamed of my gender.
Posted by: rockmom at November 06, 2012 12:02 PM (aBlZ1)
Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at November 06, 2012 12:02 PM (JVCVF)
Posted by: blehzor at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (s9K+V)
-------------------------------------------
And once again you have to consider that not all dems are voting for Baraka.
Posted by: Soona at November 06, 2012 12:02 PM (4bdZW)
Posted by: blehzor at November 06, 2012 12:02 PM (s9K+V)
Posted by: Tami at November 06, 2012 12:02 PM (X6akg)
I was number 742 at 2:45. It took me 5 minutes. There was no real line.
Turnout has been light today for the dems at my polling place it seems like. Oh, and when I went to lunch, NONE of the polling places I drove past had any lines, or more than a few cars in the lots. Anecdotal, I know, but good. In other news, my parents voted in Waukesha county at 10am, and said that they were between 500 and 600 to vote (I can't remember the exact number), and that there was a doubled back line to the polling place. Their area goes heavily republican, so light turnout in dark blue madistan (so far) and great turnout in red waukesha (anecdotally).
Posted by: GMan at November 06, 2012 12:02 PM (UkbKS)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at November 06, 2012 12:03 PM (uD2fR)
Long ass lines in Lee County, FL but I was in and out inside an hour.
There's only one group of voters that can be identified while you're standing in line.
Posted by: USS Diversity at November 06, 2012 12:03 PM (9ghZ6)
Posted by: Ringo at November 06, 2012 12:03 PM (dQ/Oc)
Posted by: Up with people at November 06, 2012 12:03 PM (kzFo5)
Oh, FFS Truman. WTF?
First its 'we got this' from Mitts campaign, then its OH won't be called tonight, then its 'relax, we got this'.
You're whipplashing me brother. There is going to be an investigation of what Truman knew and when did he know it.
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 06, 2012 12:03 PM (PHb2k)
Just heard on FNC.
Bloomberg slammed the elections board in NYC, calling it a "third world country".
He's gotta be fucking high!
No matter what they are doing, it is likely to be significantly more than what he has done.
He's gotta lotta damn nerve.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 06, 2012 12:04 PM (piMMO)
Wait-- I thought those Wasserman numbers were bullshit, just a placeholder from the Gannett story that got pulled earlier today?
Posted by: Wait at November 06, 2012 12:04 PM (MPIX5)
Posted by: wheatie at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (ICEh3)
___
It's so weird to hear PA constantly referred to (in MSM) as a solid democrat state, considering the make-up of our elected officials. If GOP turnout is as good as is being reported here and elsewhere, there's a very good chance Mr. Smith will go to Washington, instead of Senator Empty Suit Casey Jr.
Posted by: kallisto at November 06, 2012 12:04 PM (jm/9g)
Posted by: tasker at November 06, 2012 12:04 PM (r2PLg)
Posted by: Evilpens at November 06, 2012 12:04 PM (ck76k)
Posted by: Ian S. at November 06, 2012 12:04 PM (B/VB5)
Yup.
Plus, if you win, you get the satisfaction of knowing that the $7.00 you won was taken right out of the pocket of an Obama booster.
Posted by: Looking closely at November 06, 2012 12:04 PM (PwGfd)
Posted by: teej says go K-State at November 06, 2012 12:04 PM (QbKVX)
Posted by: soothsayer at November 06, 2012 12:04 PM (jUytm)
We select an 'ette to be given to Star Khan Priebus as a offering for his continued guidance.
Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (GQ8sn)
Has anyone noticed he looks like The Black Adder?
Posted by: Long Island at November 06, 2012 12:05 PM (EsJl1)
Where is Norah O'Donnell? Find her. Let's do this the proper way.
Posted by: occam's brassiere at November 06, 2012 12:05 PM (ekF3x)
Posted by: edj at November 06, 2012 12:05 PM (+QKfp)
Plus, baseball is an extremely regimented, rule-hedged system of specific tasks and events. That's much easier to analyze and reduce to stats than human voting behavior.
The intangibles in baseball can make a difference, but other than injury usually can be accounted for. Voting, not so much.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 12:05 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: Psycotte at November 06, 2012 12:05 PM (Hk10/)
Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (GQ8sn)
-----------
I'll volunteer. He lives like two miles up the road from me.
Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 12:05 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: VJay at November 06, 2012 12:05 PM (q5NFp)
Very preliminary projection from Romney HQ: We win 300-238
This is from the Smart Guys UpstairsRelax we have this.
Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:43 PM (vWZrj)
GET OUT AND VOTE!!! FINISH HIM!!!
Posted by: rd at November 06, 2012 12:05 PM (zLp5I)
Posted by: blehzor at November 06, 2012 12:05 PM (s9K+V)
Posted by: tofer732 at November 06, 2012 12:06 PM (2zM0P)
Posted by: The Mad Analyst at November 06, 2012 12:06 PM (hZ4ZR)
Posted by: edj at November 06, 2012 04:05 PM (+QKfp)
__
holy crap that's right in the range Dave in FLA predicted
Posted by: kallisto at November 06, 2012 12:06 PM (jm/9g)
Which version? The snivling chinless Blackadder I? The handsome devilish Blackadder III?
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 12:07 PM (r4wIV)
I was wondering about ORCA. I signed up, called in, took the online training, and then...nothing. Never got the app, never got an assignment, nothing. When I went to vote, the strike list workers were holding blank paper and writing in names. I guessed that they already had a volunteer for my area (Loudoun Co. VA) and either the app never worked or they couldn't get the voter data loaded in. But did some people actually use the ORCA app today?
Posted by: Matt at November 06, 2012 12:07 PM (ljiM/)
Posted by: War69.com at November 06, 2012 12:07 PM (ayPhb)
VA-11 here. I only had to wait about half an hour in line to vote, but the poll workers were commenting that things had been crazy there all day. Cars that had bumper stickers were about half R, half O. Pretty much the same with yard signs around here.
And maybe this is an omen (of the good sort), but after voting I took my kid to the grocery store. There was a large display of pudding boxes and he excitedly said "Hey, lets buy some pudding for tonight!". The kid is waaaaay too young to have ever read this blog. Two boxes of chocolate pudding are now waiting to be mixed up.
Posted by: Hoplite Housewife at November 06, 2012 12:07 PM (qtKqj)
Romney camp's "ORCA" turnout app has crashed, so they can't monitor their turnout op
one of you tech guys better get on this, stat.
Posted by: tofer732 at November 06, 2012 12:07 PM (2zM0P)
I was number 742 at 2:45.
----------------
Are you serious? That's a really low turnout. It was 1500 in my polling place in Kenosha at noon.
Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 12:07 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: blehzor at November 06, 2012 12:07 PM (s9K+V)
Posted by: Captain Nate Silver, SS Titanic at November 06, 2012 12:08 PM (BuSM8)
Posted by: Matt at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (ljiM/)
my cousin lives in Wooddbridge VA- what county is that?
Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 12:08 PM (8sCoq)
Posted by: The History of Liquid at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (Wvtly)
I have tried to comprehend that damned thing, but I'm too stupid to understand it.
Posted by: Ombudsman at November 06, 2012 12:08 PM (HqXYa)
http://tinyurl.com/bpxl389
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 12:08 PM (SkUim)
There are many who need to be unceremoniously fired after this election. Among them the entire "news" staff at NBC, all reporters and editors at the NY Slimes and all those others. Thanks to them, we have endured more than four years of drooling, sucking Choom Boy worship while felonies large and small not only went unreported but continue unabated even today.
So forget Nate Silver. He is no more a useless cretin than Chuck Todd, no more an unabashed cheerleader for treason than Soledad O'Brien or Candy Crowley.
While they're polishing those final turds for President Historic First©, voting fraud continues. Any decent reporter would be reporting it. Of course, any decent jurisdiction in the country would be making arrests, too.
Posted by: MrScribbler, banned at TepidAir at November 06, 2012 12:08 PM (yKUrR)
Posted by: Lady in Black voting with her lady parts to send TFG packing! at November 06, 2012 12:08 PM (lTVJy)
In 2008 we knew were we going to lose at the outset, so...no big deal.
But constantly clicking the refresh button for any hope of a leaked result is...
well...Unhealthy.
Posted by: MrShad at November 06, 2012 12:09 PM (Xqfwb)
Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (GQ8sn)
-----------
I'll volunteer. He lives like two miles up the road from me.
Posted by: mama winger at November 06, 2012 04:05 PM (P6QsQ)
Maybe we should have a pudding wrestling match to select the winner?
Posted by: Long Island at November 06, 2012 12:09 PM (EsJl1)
Posted by: HoboJerky, profit of DOOM! at November 06, 2012 12:09 PM (hlwt5)
Good sign...
Joan Walsh from Salon is concerned that "voter suppression" is a big problem. You don't start making excuses if you are getting indications your side is winning.
Posted by: jwest at November 06, 2012 12:09 PM (ZDsRL)
http://tinyurl.com/bpxl389
MEOW!
Anna, are you sure that's Green Bay? They have no official team cheerleaders. Those would have to be local college team girls or.....oh my......highschoolers.
Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 12:09 PM (GQ8sn)
Posted by: Kiana at November 06, 2012 12:10 PM (w41GQ)
>>A woman wearing an MIT t-shirt was barred from voting Florida, according
to a local report. MIT stands for theMassachusetts Institute of
Technology, not Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
Did they also throw out the guy in the Broncos shirt and Bama hat?
Posted by: Mama AJ at November 06, 2012 12:10 PM (SUKHu)
Posted by: GMan at November 06, 2012 12:10 PM (UkbKS)
Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 12:10 PM (8sCoq)
Posted by: CNH_320 at November 06, 2012 12:10 PM (eeKvo)
Posted by: Keith Arnold at November 06, 2012 12:10 PM (Jdtsu)
The Star Khan likes his offerings to be freshly waxed, dressed in silk, and carrying two bottles of Val-U-Rite.
Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 12:10 PM (GQ8sn)
Old News....keep up ACE!! This is from this morning...Geauga County....GOP area....up 125 PERCENT increase from early voting from 2008. Predicting 80 percent turnout....McCain won 57...BUSH 60....forecast higher for Romney....very important county in OH....Lake County...GOP up and Dem Downs....Obama won in 2008 and is not losing in 2012 (Early Vote)
In Athens County...College Town Voting Early...Down 10 percent from 2008 and Low Voter Turnout reported this afternoon and morning...Dem County..
Tom Cunningham on Hannity....Butler County Officials have NEVER seen turnout like this before exceeding BUSH's in 2004!!! Big GOP COUNTY...Hamilton County Obama down in early voting.....Sorrounding GOP counties Voting Lines are through the roof and out the door....
HUGE GOP TURNOUT IN OH all over the State...reports my brother who works with the campaign for Romney!! Exceeding targets all over!
I live in Florida and the same....my area on West Side Orlando...GOP AREA...the lines are longer than 2010 when Rubio and Scott came to power....Never seen anything like it....massive and reports in Pasco County...GOP way up....in Collier County...lines out the door....in Volusia County...Obama was up 26 in early voting...TODAY he is down to 10 points....A 16 point swing!! This county Obama won by 6 in 2008...right now with the change he will lose by 7 percent...Volusia is Daytona Beach....
Nate Silver is in for a long long night!!! Reports of Massive GOP Turnout is taking place in WI, PA, IA, MI and MN....Mitt leading already in CO...VA also record turnout GOP!!
GO MITT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: bluerose75 at November 06, 2012 12:11 PM (HDcKc)
Posted by: Evilpens at November 06, 2012 12:11 PM (ck76k)
Posted by: Hoplite Housewife at November 06, 2012 04:07 PM (qtKqj)
I wouldn't so sure of that. Morons aren't made they are born that way.
Posted by: Long Island at November 06, 2012 12:11 PM (EsJl1)
Posted by: Armando at November 06, 2012 12:11 PM (5iuEW)
He's worse. He's using science to peddle snake oil.
Posted by: Al at November 06, 2012 12:11 PM (MzQOZ)
Posted by: slatz at November 06, 2012 12:12 PM (mE0Rl)
Posted by: grumpy momma bear at November 06, 2012 12:12 PM (SIgM0)
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 12:12 PM (SkUim)
of course they do...what was I thinking
what's their vig?
Well apparently it's not a Vig Vig per this quote from the Intrade site.
"With no vig, no juice, no artificial spread, intrade charges a small transaction charge per lot traded."
Posted by: Buzzsaw at November 06, 2012 12:12 PM (tf9Ne)
Posted by: Avi at November 06, 2012 12:12 PM (40anC)
Posted by: Walkers! at November 06, 2012 12:13 PM (C4dFv)
They are still healthy looking girls though!
Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 12:13 PM (GQ8sn)
Posted by: Hill Billy at November 06, 2012 12:14 PM (6Lobp)
HUGE early vote turnout in FLA, especially in R counties. 6700 early votes in St Johns County ( very Republican ). Big crowds early, tapering off in the afternoon, going back soon to expected crowds before 7 pm
NTTAWWT, but every voter I saw was White or White Hispanic in a kinda Whitey area. No fraud, several voters over 90 years old, lots of determination.
One guy said he'd shoot his way in to vote, if necessary. ( not necessary )
N.E. Florida is doing its part===========you do the rest
Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at November 06, 2012 12:14 PM (Dll6b)
Posted by: War69.com at November 06, 2012 12:14 PM (ayPhb)
I think a lot of Europeans were betting that nobody would vote for anyone but Obama, obviously! Heh....
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 12:15 PM (r4wIV)
Joan Walsh from Salon is concerned that "voter suppression" is a big problem. You don't start making excuses if you are getting indications your side is winning.
Posted by: jwest at November 06, 2012 04:09 PM (ZDsRL)
Voter suppression. Mitt Romney is closing the doors to voting places? What a load of horseshit
Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 06, 2012 12:16 PM (1Jaio)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at November 06, 2012 12:16 PM (uD2fR)
Posted by: Clyde Shelton at November 06, 2012 12:16 PM (vUK/h)
Posted by: Yomomma at November 06, 2012 12:16 PM (UB6eP)
Posted by: levi at November 06, 2012 12:17 PM (5V/0T)
Posted by: Washington Nearsider at November 06, 2012 04:00 PM
Oh hell, sullivan's gonna go on about that for two years.
Posted by: LC LaWedgie at November 06, 2012 12:18 PM (rzTDZ)
"Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at November 06, 2012 04:14 PM (Dll6b)"
Another NE FL Moron, and in St. Johns with me. Where did you vote?
Posted by: Burn the Witch at November 06, 2012 12:18 PM (uD2fR)
Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 04:10 PM (8sCoq)
Amen to that!
Posted by: davidinvirginia at November 06, 2012 12:18 PM (qEkGZ)
Posted by: Walkers! at November 06, 2012 12:18 PM (C4dFv)
So is this where JEF/TFG/Won stole his 'revenge' idea?
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 12:18 PM (SkUim)
and Pennsylchusetts may be in play
Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 12:19 PM (8sCoq)
Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 12:20 PM (ovpNn)
Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at November 06, 2012 12:20 PM (Dll6b)
Mew
Posted by: acat at November 06, 2012 12:21 PM (4UkCP)
Posted by: War69.com at November 06, 2012 12:21 PM (ayPhb)
In the US, you have to send them a check to deposit money to your account, since our betters in congress have decided that using a credit/debit card for the same purpose would be immoral. or some such bullshit.
anyone that has an account, WI is below $1.38 and OH is below $3.15 and . big money to be made there.
VA is at 4.23 for the low risk, low reward crowd.
Posted by: DC in Towson at November 06, 2012 12:21 PM (P47hr)
1)He knows his target market: Lefties that love to have their beliefs confirmed by scientific-like analytic-y goodness*. There is a large and profitable market for lefty propaganda clothed in humor/psuedo-science/high-brow artsy-ness
2) He has a scapegoat ready: inaccurate polls, black swan events, and so on. Cue the Blues Brothers "Not my fault!" video
3) His predictions are secondary. His main draw is the body of articles (with enticing titles!) he churns out, all with his target audience in mind. Thus, an article asking if Sandy hurt Romney, rather than one that postulates the impact on Obama.
The guy has a job for life, no matter how lousy his predictions are.
*Actual science and analysis may vary, or be missing entirely
Posted by: Sweet Lou at November 06, 2012 12:22 PM (8kUqK)
Assuming you're still around...
Possibly. You'd be subjected to all three kids, though (I count myself as one of the kids. I'm pretty sure my wife does, too).
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 06, 2012 12:22 PM (nUH8H)
Look how many trolls come running in here to announce that "Nate Silver says Obama's got this in the bag!".
He's not an analyst, he's playing for the other team.
Posted by: JackStraw at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (TMB3S)
Nate Silver has done good work in sabermetrics and when it comes to baseball stats I trust him.
But his fundamental mistake is assuming that politics is similar to baseball and so the same statistical techniques will work just as well there.
The biggest difference of course is that baseball stats are definitive and reliable - you can be 99.99% sure that if the record says player X scored 2 runs in a game and singled 3x to get on base that that actually happened. Also a team's roster is fairly constant across a season and there are many games so you can build a pretty good estimate of a play/team's expected performance over time.
However almost none of this hold true for politics.
The only stats you have are election results from previous years and ongoing polls. But the polls themselves are not reliable since there's quite a bit of weighting adjustment that goes on. And as we know most polls are quite skewed towards a D+ results and so averaging them just gives you a highly skewed average.
Plus the people being polled are not the same from week to week and may not reflect at all the people who will actually show up at the polls. This is like predicting the performance of the Yankees in the playoffs based on a weekly random sample of Yankee fans, farm team players, and anyone who swears they'll be in the show in a few weeks.
Posted by: Mætenloch at November 06, 2012 12:23 PM (uyPho)
Giant (the grocery chain) is running a special on Hunt's pudding packs this week.
Buy eight packs, get 200 bonus gas points.
Omen?
Posted by: LibertarianJim at November 06, 2012 12:24 PM (XMDuf)
----------------
If Mitt Romney loses, would it spark a GOP civil war?
-- Projecting much?
Voting is already a Mess in Florida.
-- Scream early and often?
If Romney wins, he would begin his first term as a baffling figure.
-- As opposed to Obama who has all his important records sealed.
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 12:24 PM (SkUim)
But what if he is just a partisan hack and was willfully manipulating hit results intentionally to help Obama?
Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 12:24 PM (ovpNn)
****
Wait. Did they not make this clown take his mask off for identification?!
http://freebeacon.com/the-truth-monkey-votes/
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 06, 2012 12:24 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 12:24 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: California Red at November 06, 2012 12:24 PM (Ho3p+)
"With no vig, no juice, no artificial spread, intrade charges a small transaction charge per lot traded."
Posted by: Buzzsaw at November 06, 2012 04:12 PM
ok, thats odd, when i was just over there signing up, the site said no per transaction fee, just $5 a month, unless you dont have any money in your account on the 1st.
seems to me you should just cash out every month and re-deposit when you want to bet. if im wrong here, please let me know.
Posted by: DC in Towson at November 06, 2012 12:25 PM (P47hr)
How I imagine Joe Biden ended up in Ohio today:
Joe Biden: (answers phone at 3am): Hello itÂ’s Joe, whadayaknow?
Barack Obama: Joe, itÂ’s Barry . . .
JB: Oh hello there Mr. President Â…
BO: Joe
JB: Â…. I was just Â….
BO: JOE!
JB: Â…..thinking what big FÂ’n deal this campaign has been and I Â….
BO: JOE, Shut the F&* UP!
JB: oh sorry
BO: Joe, Â…ummmm Â….ahhhhÂ… our numbers are not where we want them in Ohio Â… ummm Â….ahhh So I need you to go to Ohio to help get out the vote.
JB: Uh well, uh. Ok. Whaddeverya need. Oh, wait, IÂ’m getting some new hair plugs at 9 so I guess I can go after that Â…
BO: No.
JB: It took me quite a while to get this appointment with this new doctor, I hear heÂ’s quite good, heÂ’s Pakistani you know Â….
BO: NO! Joe, I need you to get your a** on a plane first thing. F** your hair plugs. (click)
JB: My wifeÂ’s hairdresser referred him. I think he voted for us last time too. Maybe I can get you his number and Â…. wait hello?
Posted by: Pete at November 06, 2012 12:25 PM (W2qJe)
---
Gee, ya think?
Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 06, 2012 12:25 PM (WMsq+)
My sister called Cartland the "dot-dot-dot writer."
Posted by: Miss Marple at November 06, 2012 12:26 PM (GoIUi)
Posted by: elizabethe voted for Romney/Ryan at November 06, 2012 12:26 PM (TOBhV)
---
Gee, ya think?
Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 06, 2012 04:25 PM (WMsq+)
Well I am 98% sure...but that 2% is there to hedge so i can say there is a chance and i called it correct either way?
Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 12:28 PM (ovpNn)
"If Obama wins, will he finally tell us his second term agenda?"
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 12:28 PM (SkUim)
what baffling
he's wicked smaht and has some nice fucken suits
Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 12:29 PM (8sCoq)
---
Nah, that shit only works with leftists.
Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 06, 2012 12:29 PM (WMsq+)
Posted by: skinnydipinacid at November 06, 2012 12:30 PM (dt2qx)
Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 12:30 PM (SKX2R)
Posted by: Margarita DeVille at November 06, 2012 12:30 PM (C8mVl)
I'm trying to earn it by staying home from work today and making calls via MittRomney.com. (I got assigned to Nevada, and I'm getting mostly wrong and disconnected numbers.) But if another Moron should be more deserving than I am (which is surely the case -- look at Fluffy working in VA, for example!) I sure would love to see it.
Posted by: Mary in LA at November 06, 2012 12:31 PM (NhijW)
Possibly. You'd be subjected to all three kids, though (I count myself as one of the kids. I'm pretty sure my wife does, too).
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 06, 2012 04:22 PM (nUH8H)
Kids don't bother me. It's up to you two really...but it would be nice to meet the guy who may or may not have a blog.
Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at November 06, 2012 12:32 PM (GrtrJ)
Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 06, 2012 12:32 PM (QxSug)
...and when he leaves office he will give a speech taking credit for the Romney Recovery that will be coming in the next few months claiming Romney Didnt build that, I Me My administration we built it.
Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 12:32 PM (ovpNn)
Posted by: HoboJerky, profit of DOOM! at November 06, 2012 12:32 PM (hlwt5)
Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 12:34 PM (ovpNn)
Posted by: Gregles at November 06, 2012 12:34 PM (BHM5V)
BTW, Obana has no coattails in Ohio Local and state offices are heavily Republican. Granted I live in Butler County, which could officially change its name to "Republican County" without loss of credibility, but the Democrat machine in SW Obio is lame. Speaker Boehner ran unopposed, with only a write-in blank.
The Conservatives have turned out in force, and the Independents are making themselves noteworthy for a change too. Obaka is going to crash and burn today, and the LSM is going to be wondering "why".
Posted by: exdem13 at November 06, 2012 12:35 PM (1GunI)
Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 04:29 PM (8sCoq)
__
he's got a pretty hot bod for a man in his 60s too.
I know Ryan gets all the lust, but the elder statesman of the ticket ain't exactly chopped livah.
Posted by: kallisto at November 06, 2012 12:35 PM (jm/9g)
Hey, they're already voting for me. Who cares about turnout actually being able to drive to the polls?
Posted by: obama's forward planning at November 06, 2012 12:36 PM (nkiQM)
Again Yahoo! News leads the way in stupid headlines.
"Katy Perry performs for Obama in skintight 'ballot'"
And all Bill Clinton got was Monica under the desk.
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 12:37 PM (SkUim)
He told us his agenda: revenge.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 12:37 PM (r4wIV)
I tried setting up an Intrade acct last week to take some money from the eurotards giving 3 and 4 to 1 odds on Mitt. But they will not accept a credit card from US address only bank transfer. F it.
Posted by: burnitup at November 06, 2012 12:38 PM (Znqj4)
Again Yahoo! News leads the way in stupid headlines.
"Katy Perry performs for Obama in skintight 'ballot'"
And all Bill Clinton got was Monica under the desk.
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 04:37 PM (SkUim)
Wasted effort.
He only likes Reggie and WOokies.
Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 12:38 PM (ovpNn)
Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 12:38 PM (SKX2R)
Posted by: Waterhouse at November 06, 2012 12:38 PM (w+lzM)
----------------
If Mitt Romney loses, would it spark a GOP civil war?
-- Projecting much?
Voting is already a Mess in Florida.
-- Scream early and often?
If Romney wins, he would begin his first term as a baffling figure.
-- As opposed to Obama who has all his important records sealed.
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 04:24 PM (SkUim)
Speaking of stupid shit the media writes that has no basis in reality ...
Does anyone remember after the 2000 election the pundits declaring Gore was the de facto nominee in 2004 because of the 2000 results. That prediction was so on target.
Posted by: Long Island at November 06, 2012 12:39 PM (EsJl1)
"We cannot continue to rely on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives we've set. We've got to have a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded."
Watch dem heads explode and say oops that was Barkies plan in 2010
Posted by: Buzzsaw at November 06, 2012 12:39 PM (tf9Ne)
Serfs are supposed to be taking the bus anyway.
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at November 06, 2012 12:40 PM (hO8IJ)
One is white where the box next to Barack Obama's name is blacked out.
Other is blue with FORWARD running up the right side so she looks like a misshapen Pepsi can.
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 12:40 PM (SkUim)
http://cdn.pickmeupnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Katy-Perry-Boobs-6.jpg
Posted by: Waterhouse at November 06, 2012 12:42 PM (w+lzM)
Posted by: Evilpens at November 06, 2012 12:43 PM (ck76k)
Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 12:45 PM (8sCoq)
Posted by: teej says go K-State at November 06, 2012 12:48 PM (cWpCn)
http://cdn.pickmeupnews.com/wp-content/
uploads/2010/06/Katy-Perry-Boobs-6.jpg
Dang. That pic is making me rethink my vote on Prop 35 (California "sex trafficking").
Posted by: wooga at November 06, 2012 12:49 PM (vjyZP)
Instead of Energizing the Democrats, they lit a mother fucking FIRE under the ass of the republicans and independents.
May turn out the be THE miscalculation of the MSM Campaign even more than covering for obama.
Had they gone into the election with a 53 47 they may have lulled the R and I into complacency (he has it in the bag i can go do something else) and snuck Obama back in for another term.
also
That fat fuck Cocksucker Richardson is on fox trying to claim its looking great for Obama cause he has all the illegal alien votes in Nevada.
Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 12:54 PM (ovpNn)
Posted by: teej says go K-State at November 06, 2012 12:56 PM (d4o2E)
Because it's easy to understand 9% response rate + D+11 -> they're lying. And the non-stop m-f-lying ticks people the hell off even when they're normally "I vote for aliens" voters.
Posted by: Al at November 06, 2012 12:59 PM (MzQOZ)
Whatever happened to linking the boobeh pics in the nics?
It's for the chilllldren.
Posted by: teej says go K-State at November 06, 2012 04:56 PM (d4o2E)
Here you go:
http://tinyurl.com/7dt49ug
Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 01:03 PM (ovpNn)
Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 04:54 PM (ovpNn)
Well, I'm calling Nevada voters right now to try to offset that. And I'm eating my way through an entire pint of banana cream pudding 'cause making cold calls stresses me out to the max. :-(
/sucking it up
//making phone calls, I mean, not pudding
///well, that too
Posted by: Mary in LA at November 06, 2012 01:04 PM (NhijW)
Posted by: The Mad Analyst at November 06, 2012 01:05 PM (hZ4ZR)
Posted by: Waterhouse at November 06, 2012 01:07 PM (w+lzM)
Posted by: ObotNot at November 06, 2012 01:15 PM (/x3MP)
He won't though. "Oh, I only said 91%. That still means you can lose 9% of the time, duh."
The whole plan is snake oil with an intricate mechanism just to provide validity.
But:
I'm running around Seattle, thinking I'm going to spend every single conversation about politics for the decade blaming Nate Silver for today's results.
Posted by: Al at November 06, 2012 01:32 PM (MzQOZ)
If Romney wins by 10% or more today, and the Early Vote is 35% of or less of the total, he wins over 90% of the time.
If he wins by only 9% today, and the Early Vote is only 32%, he needs to not lose the early vote by more than 59-40 [he has to do 19% or better spread at worst.]
If EV is 35%, and he wins today by 11%, and loses by 21% in early votes, he wins by 0.012% of the electorate. Basically about 700 people or 10 weeks of recounts.
That's the matrix we are looking at. If EV is ~32%/11% ED spread or he wins by ~12% today, he wins outside Recount Margin in all scenarios.
If EV is 31% or less and he wins by 9% or more today, he is almost assured of winning.
Posted by: Najdorf at November 06, 2012 01:58 PM (tAHf5)
Posted by: Billius at November 17, 2012 01:46 AM (KOMah)
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Posted by: Little Lebowski Urban Acheiver at November 06, 2012 11:39 AM (8LCi0)