October 14, 2012
— CAC Knowing PPP would have something wacky, I decided to cut right down to the most absurd point highlighted by the firm: 19% of respondents have already voted and they are breaking 3-1 Obama. That seems to spell certain doom for Romney.
Is it actually true? Have just under a fifth of Ohio voters actually voted?
Facts tend to get in the way of such fantasies.
CUYAHOGA COUNTY (Largest County in the State, overwhelmingly Democrat).
TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS: 928,798 (which, FTR, is down over 180,000 from 2008, and with the registration deadline past in the state, it won't climb from here).
Of this total, 229,794 have requested absentee ballots.
Of this total, 31,233 have returned them, 13.59% of the total requested. Red flag #1.
That total requested accounts for a third of the total number of votes counted in 2008. So fractions of fractions now. Red flag #2.
Assuming lower turnout of 670,000 (closer to 2008 which ironically had fewer votes than 2004), that 31,233 drops to less than 5% of the total vote from the largest county in Ohio. A base county for President Obama and the Democrats. A core part of his Early Vote strategy.
Sure, its just one county, but it is also one of the most Democratic (and as the press meme is going, they have the advantage here), one of the more enthusiastic on voting, and will account for 1 in every 9 ballots cast in Ohio. If we were seeing the levels claimed, we would see it here, and we aren't. Flag #3.
But what about In-Person voting?
Statewide, about 60,000 Ohioans (out of around 8million registered) have voted in-person.
If we are to believe the hype that 18 to 19% of Ohians have already voted as per the surveys from Marist and PPP are claiming, where are the voters? If the Democrats are turning their ballots back in droves, where the hell are they?
Per the SOS' own press release, 1.1 million voters have requested (not submitted, as we see above, that is not the case at all) absentee ballots, and 59,000 have voted in-person. That totals to just around 20% of the 2004/2008 total vote, so on it's face the 18/19% statistic being bounced around and "found" by polling firms like Public Policy Polling could be true, except for two things: counties are still mailing out these requested ballots so it is impossible for those voters to have sent them back; and on the county level the return rate yields a number in the mid-single digits, if that. A third of what PPP and Marist's respondents are claiming.
The smaller the # of respondents for a given question/sub-question, the higher the margin of error. It is how you can wind up with polls giving a Republican 45% of the black vote: if that sample size out of the larger polled group is small, wackiness can ensue. It is why ultimately these subsamples need to be taken with a grain of salt, and not paraded about as significant when the actual numbers on the ground don't match up.
Anyone saying the race is over based on "19% said they already did and PPP said they are breaking 76-24 Obama ELEVENTY OMGZ!" is trolling, and on a very pedestrian level. Want to know how many people have voted? Check the counties themselves, or better yet, for a more concentrated spot of information, check out ningrim's spreadsheet here (requests only).
Beyond the usual smattering of poll junkies and politicos who will gobble and ooze with delight over garbage, any pollster hyping the statistic is either ignorant of the actual statistical numbers reported or they are deliberately pushing a very, very steamy pile.
But nobody would push something that obviously isn't true. That would be the work of a hack, not a reputable pollster.
Posted by: CAC at
12:07 AM
| Comments (234)
Post contains 655 words, total size 4 kb.
Posted by: RomneylosesCleveland at October 14, 2012 12:13 AM (8HhF2)
Posted by: Clyde Shelton at October 14, 2012 12:14 AM (vUK/h)
Posted by: Saar at October 14, 2012 12:21 AM (VGOSV)
Posted by: Beto at October 14, 2012 12:23 AM (BAnPT)
Posted by: UpNights at October 14, 2012 12:31 AM (4onRb)
Posted by: Stephanie Cutter Political Strategist, Professional Liar, and Administrations #2 Turd Polisher at October 14, 2012 12:34 AM (ovpNn)
Posted by: Bureau of Labor Statistics - We Put the L in BS at October 14, 2012 12:36 AM (ovpNn)
YOU GONNA BELIEVE CAC?
OR HONEST JOE!
OSAMABINLADEN IS DEAD GM IS ALIVE RECOVERY SUMMER IS HERE THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WENT DOWN AND OHIO IS VOTING 3 TO 1 FOR OBAMA WITH 20 PERCENT OF THE VOTE ALREADY COUNTED!
THATS RIGHT FOLKS!
TRUST HONEST JOE!
Posted by: Honest Joe Biden - I Never Tell a LIE! EVAH! at October 14, 2012 12:40 AM (ovpNn)
Posted by: Barack Cramming For Finals and Chugging Jolt Cola Obama at October 14, 2012 12:43 AM (ovpNn)
Posted by: Hillary Ratfink Clinton at October 14, 2012 12:45 AM (ovpNn)
Posted by: JarvisW at October 14, 2012 12:45 AM (E7Iyp)
You're still lookin' up when you swing
Posted by: Beto at October 14, 2012 01:04 AM (BAnPT)
there is one way in which 19% of ballots could be back, all those ones they found in the trunks of the cars could have been turned in.
ppp is just part of the obama campaign. its a 50 state vote, he needs OH, they must try to get the story out that OH is over.
especially since we already know that FL, VA, NC, CO, NV, WI and ME (1) are already in the bank for Romney.
SWIDT?
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 14, 2012 01:15 AM (PHb2k)
Posted by: Ragnarok at October 14, 2012 01:19 AM (aIVnF)
Posted by: The Political Hat at October 14, 2012 01:20 AM (sZTYJ)
Posted by: TooCon at October 14, 2012 01:24 AM (V4YIE)
Posted by: davidinvirginia at October 14, 2012 01:39 AM (qEkGZ)
Posted by: Up with people! at October 14, 2012 01:50 AM (kzFo5)
Posted by: Queequeg the Harpooner at October 14, 2012 01:51 AM (p4U6S)
Posted by: Up with people! at October 14, 2012 01:53 AM (kzFo5)
I see what you did there.
Posted by: scif at October 14, 2012 02:05 AM (TqLxU)
Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 14, 2012 02:15 AM (hlUJY)
Posted by: Jean at October 14, 2012 02:23 AM (g2ldK)
especially since we already know that FL, VA, NC, CO, NV, WI and ME (1) are already in the bank for Romney.
This^ is the real story. I don't know so much about CO, NV, WI but the trend is our friend. Suffolk U. is not polling in the first three anymore. The bottom line is that if OH shows a solid lead for R^2, it's game over, man. Game over.
CAC may correct me, but I think the story is now that Obama has to hold all three of OH, PA, MI.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 02:27 AM (xSegX)
Posted by: 141Driver at October 14, 2012 02:30 AM (bRK91)
Posted by: Queequeg the Harpooner at October 14, 2012 02:40 AM (p4U6S)
What's interesting is that it only seems to be Ohio that pollsters are pulling the "already voted" weighting gimmick. The Marist (?) poll pulled that trick as well to justify their D+infinity sample.
It's as if they know Obama's final frontier has been breached and are desperately trying to talk up the race not being over.
Posted by: AussieMarcus at October 14, 2012 02:43 AM (RstsB)
Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 14, 2012 02:43 AM (XIsD/)
Posted by: kelley in virginia at October 14, 2012 02:45 AM (HNwOT)
It's as if they know Obama's final frontier has been breached and are desperately trying to talk up the race not being over.
That's what I think as well, They've been caught on the D+ whatever and for some reason they've found that they could get more Democrats to say they voted than Republicans.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 02:52 AM (xSegX)
Undoubtedly, given that PPP felt the need to do this. I swear, their only purpose seems to be to mess with the RCP average.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 02:55 AM (xSegX)
So if you re-weight the numbers by assuming, say, 7% of people "already voted" (what CAC seems to suggest) instead of 19%, you get:
Romney 49% (0.07*0.24)+(0.51*0.93)
Obama 47% (0.07*0.76) + (0.45*0.93)
if I've done my maths correctly, Romney up 2.
Posted by: AussieMarcus at October 14, 2012 02:56 AM (RstsB)
Everyone mindlessly repeats polls and slogans as though they were a scientific consensus...This is how AlGore works or Saul Alinsky's " Rules for Radicals "... No matter what the truth is - a lie is better , because in the end it's whats best for them...
It's an elitist attitude and should always be fought against ...
Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 14, 2012 02:59 AM (XIsD/)
Posted by: Up with people! at October 14, 2012 03:01 AM (kzFo5)
Posted by: TooCon at October 14, 2012 03:01 AM (V4YIE)
That's, of course, assuming that Obama does indeed hold a 2-1 lead among those who already voted (and that Romney holds a 6 point lead among those who didn't). Call me very skeptical on the first.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 03:04 AM (xSegX)
Posted by: Hansel at October 14, 2012 03:06 AM (Y//vu)
In my opinion you nailed it with tour entire post :
" some pollsters just trying to manipulate public opinion to create a bandwagon effect for their favored candidates "
Although Gallop was once credible they caved to David Axelrod and changed their polling samples to benefit "The Obama "
Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 14, 2012 03:12 AM (XIsD/)
Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 14, 2012 03:14 AM (hlUJY)
o a.m...Posted by: thunderb at October 14, 2012 03:15 AM (Dnbau)
I certainly think PPP does. They are a PushPushPush polling outfit. They always come up with novel ways to bias polls. I think that other, smaller pollsters mimic their methodology either out of a desire for bias themselves or...
...there's always a fear among pollsters that they're completely missing everything. That cell phones mean that their polling is completely wrong, that there are trends that make traditional polling useless.
And so if some big company has some new way of doing things, it must be for a reason, right?
Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 03:17 AM (xSegX)
Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 07:17 AM (xSegX)
And if it is a polling company, you can bet the reason is NOT to make you better informed. After all, you don't control any of the tax legislation or the regulations that apply to their business!
Posted by: Hrothgar (Dagny Aficionado ) at October 14, 2012 03:21 AM (Cnqmv)
Posted by: thunderb at October 14, 2012 03:23 AM (Dnbau)
Posted by: tofer732 at October 14, 2012 03:24 AM (m5Iwq)
Posted by: wolfs dad at October 14, 2012 03:41 AM (90YdZ)
But, despite their choice of candidates, the Democrat "leaders" didn't just fall off the turnip truck. They have an organization in place -- remember ACORN, the Black Panthers, et. al.? -- and they have the power of government behind them.
So, when the votes come rolling in and begin to indicate that President Historic First© is getting his ass handed to him, does anyone think they will accept that without making another stab at getting the result they want? Will they simply say "gosh, we lost" and take defeat with good grace?
Not. A. Chance.
Polling data is a distraction. They don't care. They have ways of changing election results in their favor, and they won't hesitate to use them.
This is not the time to rejoice in victory. Be prepared, be aware, and save the happy shit for Nov. 7th.
Posted by: MrScribbler, banned at TepidAir at October 14, 2012 03:41 AM (ZgX/g)
Posted by: Ed Anger at October 14, 2012 03:46 AM (tOkJB)
My expecttion for one of the remaining debates is for Obama to repeat the 'interrupt him every 20 seconds' strategy that Biden used to create an Alpha dog dominance perception.
So i'm thinking that Romney needs to (1) Not be interupting (2) defend his seaking time turf like a junkyard dog. If the president interupts, he has to go OVER him and keep making his point. Refuse to cede the stage. With both talking, the moderator will be forced to step in and side with Romney.
Posted by: Buzzsaw90 at October 14, 2012 03:56 AM (kzejo)
Are you saying it is time to release the angry half-black "man"? One can only hope!
Posted by: Hrothgar (Dagny Aficionado ) at October 14, 2012 04:01 AM (Cnqmv)
Posted by: Mark2 at October 14, 2012 04:02 AM (Bfnt/)
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 04:24 AM (xL7J/)
Posted by: Mama AJ at October 14, 2012 04:26 AM (SUKHu)
Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Wonders what Dagny thinks at October 14, 2012 04:26 AM (kc2b9)
Posted by: The Greginator at October 14, 2012 04:29 AM (a0nis)
Posted by: rickl at October 14, 2012 04:30 AM (sdi6R)
Posted by: Sandra Fluke at October 14, 2012 04:30 AM (bRK91)
It's like OSP said, right around 8:10am daily.
As an aside, I just joined "The Group" the other day, and am struggling with mastering those skillz.
I was on Yahoo trying to update alies just now, and that section is returning an "Our Servers are taking a break" message.
And it's only that section of Yahoo, mail is working perfect, and you can get to the Moron Horde's Group itself with no problem.
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 04:31 AM (xL7J/)
Posted by: Janetoo at October 14, 2012 04:32 AM (R+fMx)
Posted by: spypeach at October 14, 2012 04:32 AM (pwTow)
It's called voter suppression - Democrat style.
Posted by: Murph at October 14, 2012 04:32 AM (23ik4)
Weren't you talking about a meetup in Baltimore the other day?
Am trying to put something together with DCinTowson on the group site.
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 04:34 AM (xL7J/)
Posted by: rickl at October 14, 2012 04:38 AM (sdi6R)
change them out sometime...
Seems to be fixed now and I believe just a bit faster...
Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 14, 2012 04:39 AM (XIsD/)
Posted by: HoboJerky, now with 46% more DOOM! at October 14, 2012 04:40 AM (MrM2k)
Math - its hard, especially if you're hack trying to promote the Democrats. Polls promoting wildly inaccurate claims need to be excoriated, repeatedly.
Barac Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure.
Posted by: Gmac at October 14, 2012 04:40 AM (IanLz)
Posted by: The Greginator at October 14, 2012 04:41 AM (a0nis)
Posted by: Plank's Constant at October 14, 2012 04:42 AM (feFL6)
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 04:42 AM (YdQQY)
This false flag story is not about depressing Republican turnout. It's to keep the Dem base from surrendering altogether.
They are trying to create a meme of It Doesn't Matter How Bad Obama Does in Debates I, II or III Because, Since Huge Numbers In Ohio Voted Before the Debate Debacles, Ohio Is Already In The Bag.
Posted by: Stratego at October 14, 2012 04:44 AM (u3N3z)
Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 14, 2012 04:52 AM (L7hol)
R+1.00% - Current RCP Average
O+0.43% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.52% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.54% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.30% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
R+2.30% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 14, 2012 04:53 AM (dX4hn)
Posted by: Plank's Constant at October 14, 2012 04:53 AM (feFL6)
Village Idiot's Apprentice,
Yes I would love to do a meet up. The group site, is that the same as the facebook group?
Posted by: spypeach at October 14, 2012 04:54 AM (pwTow)
Posted by: VADM (Red) Cuthbert Collingwood (Mentioned in Dispatches) at October 14, 2012 04:55 AM (p4U6S)
I'm not sure Debate II will be a debacle, although I think Team Romney has a rigid strategy that they're sticking to. I think they have a plan for Mean Obama and it's not the Ryan plan. Ryan, I think, was told to just keep calm and not get in the mud. There were several times when he could have interjected during a break in one of Biden's diatribes and Ryan was just letting him go.
I don't think Romney will play it quite that way. I also think his debates don't lend themselves to interruption. The VP format allowed for this kind of nonsense.
This false flag story is not about depressing Republican turnout. It's to keep the Dem base from surrendering altogether.
What I read was that the non-ridiculous respondents were supporting Romney 51-45. If they lose Ohio, Obama is toast. He's losing too many other states.
They are trying to create a meme of It Doesn't Matter How Bad Obama Does in Debates I, II or III Because, Since Huge Numbers In Ohio Voted Before the Debate Debacles, Ohio Is Already In The Bag.
You have a great point. They see all those numbers going south and need some good news -- that they've locked in enough votes.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 04:55 AM (xSegX)
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 04:57 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 04:58 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: Truman North at October 14, 2012 04:58 AM (I2LwF)
http://is.gd/dLr1as
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 04:58 AM (YdQQY)
It's the AceofSpades Yahoo group.
If another Moron can find and link the request to join.
Am really struggling here right now with connectivity issues.
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 04:58 AM (xL7J/)
http://is.gd/271zyU
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 04:59 AM (YdQQY)
http://is.gd/M1Rf64
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 04:59 AM (YdQQY)
http://is.gd/vjgjcM
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 04:59 AM (YdQQY)
http://is.gd/3aoli5
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 05:00 AM (YdQQY)
http://is.gd/DJ1Gss
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 05:00 AM (YdQQY)
This year's selection is such a joke that people didn't even bother making a joke about it.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 05:01 AM (xSegX)
http://is.gd/s9ALPQ
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 05:01 AM (YdQQY)
http://is.gd/vdMfNo
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 05:02 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: Wheatley at October 14, 2012 05:02 AM (PZ+DJ)
Leadership and Self-Deception: Getting out of the Box
Since its publication in 2004 Leadership and Self-Deception has become an international best-seller. The bookÂ’s central insight--that the key to leadership lays not in what we do, but in who we are--has proved to resonate powerfully. This revised edition features help for readers to apply the book's lessons.
And thatÂ’s it for today
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 05:02 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: Jon Stewart at October 14, 2012 05:02 AM (a0nis)
Actually, it's a good article. The tone is more like, "So why do bears shit in the woods anyway? There are perfectly good port-a-johns nearby."
Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 05:04 AM (xSegX)
Posted by: macintx at October 14, 2012 05:09 AM (teREJ)
Posted by: rickl at October 14, 2012 05:09 AM (sdi6R)
Posted by: rickl at October 14, 2012 05:11 AM (sdi6R)
Posted by: NativeNH at October 14, 2012 05:11 AM (uKQEN)
Posted by: Albie Damned at October 14, 2012 05:12 AM (Yhu4q)
Posted by: MaxMBJ at October 14, 2012 05:14 AM (txhRp)
By the way, pony tail guy from the 1992 debate town hall was a prof at UVA. He is now a prof at Princeton with a salary of over $163,000 per year not counting stipends, textbook royalties, and speaking fees. He probably got the job as a reward.
Posted by: Miss Marple at October 14, 2012 05:15 AM (GoIUi)
Posted by: macintx at October 14, 2012 05:17 AM (teREJ)
Where's the Headlines thread. Waaaaayy too early in the morning for all these numbers.
Posted by: katya the designated driver at October 14, 2012 05:20 AM (DoZD+)
Furthermore, when has the absentee (I'm one. Already voted last week) early voter segment ever seen a 75% favor for anyone? Its absurd.
My guess is the 47%, knowing they won't drag their lazy asses out to vote just lied and said thy already did.
Posted by: MaxMBJ at October 14, 2012 09:14 AM (txhRp)
Either that or it's a huge red flag that just screams "Voting Fraud Happening Here!" And frankly, I'm sick of having to play this game every 2 years.
Posted by: Is what JQ Public is thinking... at October 14, 2012 05:22 AM (NBj0d)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 14, 2012 05:22 AM (+tqYo)
Posted by: katya the designated driver at October 14, 2012 09:20 AM (DoZD+)
See post 94
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 05:22 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: Sugar Kane at October 14, 2012 05:27 AM (EX+sq)
Posted by: toby928© at October 14, 2012 05:28 AM (QupBk)
Posted by: VBJonny at October 14, 2012 05:28 AM (bED4B)
Posted by: TexasJew at October 14, 2012 05:28 AM (lD8ju)
If Hillary goes under the bus, Bill will go something something and the Horde will party with booze and sparklers and that's just not going to end well for anyone.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at October 14, 2012 05:28 AM (Gk3SS)
Yeah. I think that was the number they got, which is why they had to flog their "already voted" thing. Frankly, I don't know where they got those numbers, but we're assuming that they don't just make them up.
Furthermore, when has the absentee (I'm one. Already voted last week) early voter segment ever seen a 75% favor for anyone? Its absurd.
That, too.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 05:30 AM (xSegX)
My lovely but stupid niece and her nice but ultra-liberal boyfriend were over for dinner last weekend.
I told him that requiring voter ID was racist, and he agreed completely.
I then said that since the 2nd Amendment guarantees the right to bear arms, ID checks for gun purchases were also racist.
Cognitive dissonance is a beautiful thing in a liberal.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 14, 2012 05:31 AM (2b4yb)
Posted by: Honey Badger @robfit at October 14, 2012 05:32 AM (2J4Qq)
Posted by: TexasJew at October 14, 2012 05:35 AM (lD8ju)
Posted by: Evilpens at October 14, 2012 05:36 AM (ck76k)
Bottom line anyone who votes for Romany is a baby killing axe murderer.
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 14, 2012 05:36 AM (wR+pz)
Clinton is a sleazy fuck, but if Obama is stupid enough to throw Hillary under the bus, then I will happily take Bill on our side until November 7th.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 14, 2012 05:37 AM (2b4yb)
The news that the attack on the local dem off was carried out by a person with a history of helping the dem party will obviously get widespread coverage by the media:
http://tinyurl.com/myh5bj
Posted by: HtP at October 14, 2012 05:37 AM (jx2j9)
Posted by: Witchfinder at October 14, 2012 05:37 AM (s/PhC)
When I saw this PPP story I was reminded of a test question where he had to make up some statistics to show that we understood concepts. Someone at PPP must have taken that class with me. By the way it went something like this...
A salesman makes a living going door to door to sell vacuum cleaners. In his first few months he learns that he has the best luck in certain middle class neighborhoods. Over the next year he figures that he sells a vacuum once for every twenty times a door is answered. He eventually gets out of the business and his replacement never sells more than one out of one hundred responses and gets fired. The replacement was considered a better closer, what happened? Work through your answer using statistical analysis.
Posted by: Tocquevillian at October 14, 2012 05:39 AM (iuY0Y)
If there is one sure thing in politics, it's that Bill Clinton will be on Bill Clinton's side. Having TFG try to destroy the combined Clinton legacy will not exactly appeal to Bill's warm and fuzzy side.
Of course, if Hillary had anything resembling a soul or dignity or class or a conscience, she would have resigned the day after the attack.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at October 14, 2012 05:40 AM (Gk3SS)
# 115
Sweet! I hope they succeed this time! I was bummed out last week when it didn't happen...and was certain that when they did make their second attempt that I'd miss it. So...time to coffee up.
Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 14, 2012 05:42 AM (L7hol)
So. Let me get this straight. The Obama team, out of self preservation, is contemplating throwing Hillary under the bus. Because of this, Bill Clinton is contemplating helping to throw Hillary under the bus.
I'm thinking that my idea about SCOAMT's promise of an unlimited supply of coeds in exchange for campaign support from Bubba is starting to come together.
Yeah, I know. Sometimes I even amaze myself.
Posted by: HtP at October 14, 2012 05:43 AM (jx2j9)
Posted by: Honey Badger @robfit at October 14, 2012 05:43 AM (htu8n)
Posted by: chuck in st paul at October 14, 2012 05:44 AM (EhYdw)
You'll know it's over when Bill throws Obama under the bus. He won't have the starry-eyed optimism that the campaign workers will.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 05:44 AM (xSegX)
But it would be delightful to watch the Clintons go after Obama.
My guess is that after the election she will become quite the independent and strong Sec State, and separate herself forcefully from Obama. That will be the only way to prevent a total destruction of her chances in 2016.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 14, 2012 05:44 AM (2b4yb)
Posted by: Miss Marple at October 14, 2012 05:46 AM (GoIUi)
Posted by: Candy Crowley at October 14, 2012 05:46 AM (OiC7K)
Posted by: Witchfinder at October 14, 2012 05:46 AM (s/PhC)
POLL FLOODING NEEDED fellow morons!!
#108 Vic has called upon us to help out. 'The State' newsblog of South Carolina is holding a poll on ripping off the taxpayers for solar stupidity. Please help out and vote on this idiocy. There's only 184 votes so far so we can really swing this. Here's the URL again: http://is.gd/s9ALPQ
The sweet tast of bitter libtard tears is a wonderful thing.
Posted by: chuck in st paul at October 14, 2012 05:47 AM (EhYdw)
Wow! But Obama needs to throw a Springsteen concert to draw a crowd.
Don't tell me Romney is losing Ohio.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 14, 2012 05:47 AM (dX4hn)
And he like the way it sounds, and so do we.
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 14, 2012 05:49 AM (wR+pz)
Why am I still skeptical of Hillary2016? It's stupid. She'll be 68. She looks very old now.
And she isn't acting presidenty.
I think Bill wants her to be president and I think he was the only one since 2009. I think she's given up on the whole idea.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 05:49 AM (xSegX)
Posted by: Sen John McCain at October 14, 2012 05:50 AM (L7hol)
Posted by: GnuBreed at October 14, 2012 09:44 AM (ccXZP)
Sorry about that. I say a reference to 'false flag' dirty tricks this morning and that came up in a search. I didn't even bother to check the date. My bad.
Posted by: HtP at October 14, 2012 05:50 AM (jx2j9)
Posted by: Honey Badger @robfit at October 14, 2012 05:51 AM (XFYiQ)
Hillary's not running for shit. After this election she will quit whether Barry wins or not.
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 14, 2012 05:52 AM (wR+pz)
The news that the attack on the local dem off was carried out by a person with a history of helping the dem party will obviously get widespread coverage by the media:
http://tinyurl.com/myh5bj
Posted by: HtP at October 14, 2012 09:37 AM (jx2j9)
****
Ummm, dude- the article you linked is from August 2009. There has not been any arrest or ID of the perpetrator of the shooting last week at the Denver Obama office.
Try this link: http://preview.tinyurl.com/8c89oow
Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at October 14, 2012 05:52 AM (/LkSO)
Whoa.
Yeah, but do you think his coach is Bill Ayers or somebody? Or just somebody who doesn't want it to be known he's working with Obama? A consultant who plays both sides of the fence, for instance. Or like Keanu Reeves' acting coach? nobody wants that bit of information known.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 05:52 AM (xSegX)
He needs a good smack down, he left his butt plug in the poodle again last night.
Posted by: Greg's mom at October 14, 2012 05:53 AM (wR+pz)
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 14, 2012 09:49 AM (wR+pz)
Oh, wow! What a typical 1%er. Are there any women or Jews or people of color in your club? Or are they ones who clean the toilets?
We need a tax on excess income if this is the way the people live off the labor of the middle class.
Posted by: Another Brattleboro Babe at October 14, 2012 05:53 AM (2b4yb)
Remember that super slimey DNC spox who said, "If Romney was talking, he was lying?"
Contrast that statement with Bidens super honest debate performance:
Posted by: HtP at October 14, 2012 05:54 AM (jx2j9)
The Hell. You. Say.
Posted by: boulder hobo at October 14, 2012 05:54 AM (QTHTd)
HtP- sorry for the duplicate reprimand! I was slow on the trigger!
Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at October 14, 2012 05:54 AM (/LkSO)
Posted by: Opinionator at October 14, 2012 05:55 AM (H14Av)
Clinton was here in Indiana on Friday, but as far as I could tell from the radio reports he mostly campaigned for state people (governor and senator candidate) and avoided much mention of Obama. Even so the rally was in a high school gym, not some big place like Lucas Oil or the Pacers stadium.
Posted by: Miss Marple at October 14, 2012 05:55 AM (GoIUi)
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 14, 2012 05:56 AM (dX4hn)
Actually, we have all of those. We did politely turn down Micheal Jordan. I am not kidding, he owns the NBA here. We didn't want his posse stumping around the club. His general manager has been asked to join, he doesn't travel with a posse.
Posted by: Billy Bob, the 1% at October 14, 2012 05:57 AM (wR+pz)
Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 05:58 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: Virginiagirl at October 14, 2012 05:59 AM (EjY4t)
Yup. My comments on her appearance aren't about her appearance per se as much as it is about how she is letting herself go in public. You don't have to be all botoxed up, in fact, I truly loathe the plastic face look, but if you want to be taken seriously, you have to at least look like you care. She's a powerful woman in a powerful position and if she can't be bothered to wash and comb her hair, well, she's pretty clearly given up.
Let's take Janet Napolitano. No one would accuse her of being a fashionista. However, in public she looks like she's at least made an attempt to look put together. There's much to be said for looking neat and clean and pressed and like you've given a shit how you look to others. Hillary's recent appearance looks like she doesn't.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at October 14, 2012 05:59 AM (Gk3SS)
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 14, 2012 06:01 AM (dX4hn)
Romney +2 in Rasmussen today? He gained a point on Saturday polling? Unheard of.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 14, 2012 09:56 AM (dX4hn)
Yep, that has to hurt Obama supporters. I'd have to look at the numbers for since before the conventions but I don't recall that happening previously.
Posted by: Slappy at October 14, 2012 06:02 AM (LTbLf)
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 06:02 AM (xL7J/)
Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at October 14, 2012 06:03 AM (/LkSO)
Posted by: Honey Badger @robfit at October 14, 2012 06:03 AM (g7vVd)
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 10:02 AM (xL7J/)
We roll that way. It's the same reason why you show up fashionably late to a social event.
Posted by: Slappy at October 14, 2012 06:04 AM (LTbLf)
Posted by: Obladioblada at October 14, 2012 06:31 AM (p1D8B)
Posted by: Obladioblada at October 14, 2012 06:35 AM (p1D8B)
Posted by: more at October 14, 2012 06:39 AM (LpQbZ)
I am laughing....My entire family lives in Cuyahoga County except me in Florida. All 47 of them....The Stories have been in the area...DEM REGS are down, the fewer ballots requested over 170,000 less than 2008, Republicans have Regs Up and they gap is like 60,000 between Dems and Gop in Absentee Ballots....From a 15 percent Dem adv in 2008 to a 6 percent in 2012(Absentee)...That is a disaster for Obama. The news over the news the last week..CHECK OUT THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH HEADLIME: ROMNEY ON THE RISE IN OHIO!! In AP, Romney crowds are surging....in Lebanon, OH, which is not a big city, close to 11,000 people showed up at Romney Rally. He is playing to 10,000s at each stop in Ohio. Ryan yesterday was in Youngstown Oh which is another Dem area....The Reps are now campaigning in OH on the Dems turf...Obama is campaigning on his own turf.....that means one thing...Obama is worried with his numbers in OH while Romney is comfortable going into Obama's area. THAT IS A GREAT SIGN FOR ROMNEY!!
As well, yesterday over 500 miners sent a leade to Obama BLASTING him for falsely using them in ADS and telling Obama to stop....and that it is Obama causing the loss of coal jobs in OHIO. It was covered on the front page of the Intelligencer Newspaper in Southeast Oh...COAL COUNTRY!!
Obama is having to send Bruce Springsteen to OH...that means Obama is worried about Blue Collar Support and he is singing in Obama's Turf!!
CAC is right go look at the Secretary of State of Oh....there is not a chance that 20 percent of the vote is in....LOL!! 60,000 out of 8,000,000 and even with the Absentees in...NOT EVEN CLOSE....In fact, Cuyahoga County had a reduction in the Number of Dem Absentees for 2012 while the Repub actually increased in Cuyahoga County!!!
Remember this is from ballots that could have been out for months as well. Here is what is happening:
The polls are moving away from Obama and it is getting worse. He is falling further behind in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio....(look at NewsMax Zogby in OH...and ARG...Obama is down...) So the Usual Suspects are using a different tact:
LOOK OBAMA IS LEADING IN EARLY RETURNS!! Not actual polls mind you...Polling the alleged people that have already voted and their numbers do not even come close to matching up...PPP and others are desperate to give Obama something to ride and show so the media can stop Romney's Momentum....LOL!! Will not work....these ballots many were mailed in weeks ago...and early voting...I would imagine knowing PPP they used a very very very small sample...Dem Skewed....WOW SHOCKING!!
You want to know where a campaign is: LOOK WHERE THEY ARE CAMPAIGNING...and what part of that STATE...it tells you everything!
Obam needs to worry about PA and MI as well and Conn and NJ are getting tighter and tighter....LOL!!
Posted by: bluerose75 at October 14, 2012 06:45 AM (HDcKc)
I requested an absentee ballot. That's because I will spend election day as a precinct judge, taking notes and casually swinging the Cheney warcock. I wonder how many other "early voters" will be similarly engaged. I'm a moderate: mildly irked, and armed to the teeth. Don't fuck with my republic, or you'll get a blue-stained thumb in your eye.
Posted by: comatus at October 14, 2012 07:02 AM (qaVK+)
Posted by: TheGarbone at October 14, 2012 07:03 AM (vtiE6)
My, this life is a whirlwind.
Posted by: GW McLintock at October 14, 2012 07:10 AM (1mj4+)
Posted by: comatus at October 14, 2012 11:02
How confident are you and others who have requested the absentee ballot that they are actually 'counted'?
Is there a process to verify these ballots being tallied?
Posted by: GW McLintock at October 14, 2012 07:12 AM (1mj4+)
Posted by: Numb Nuts in Californica at October 14, 2012 07:16 AM (lJ3rV)
Posted by: jb at October 14, 2012 07:19 AM (WRtN5)
"Stephanie Cutter Political Strategist, Professional Liar, and Administrations #2 Turd Polisher"
Yeah, but the Mouth of Sauron never looked so hot.
Posted by: MarkJ at October 14, 2012 07:22 AM (T+lGZ)
Posted by: RebeccaH at October 14, 2012 07:25 AM (JAQT9)
Posted by: DaveO at October 14, 2012 07:33 AM (hOvvF)
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 14, 2012 09:36 AM (wR+pz)
Q14 Do you think Josh Mandel is mature enough to
be a US Senator, or not?
He is ...................... .44%
He is not................. .42%
Not sure ................. .14%
Shove your push poll up your ass.... 99%
Posted by: Push Polling Penes at October 14, 2012 07:41 AM (pH5B+)
Posted by: oh boy... at October 14, 2012 07:42 AM (ROUVS)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 14, 2012 07:46 AM (i0vBR)
Posted by: wildwood15 at October 14, 2012 07:46 AM (UTY2+)
Posted by: jb at October 14, 2012 07:48 AM (WRtN5)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 14, 2012 07:52 AM (i0vBR)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 14, 2012 07:57 AM (i0vBR)
Posted by: stace at October 14, 2012 07:58 AM (TUdam)
Posted by: East Bay Jay at October 14, 2012 08:03 AM (7v8o1)
Meaning fewer Obama votes on Nov. 6, unless the early voters are those who vote early vote often.
"76-24 Obama", not even on those HopeyChangey days.
Posted by: elkh1 at October 14, 2012 08:33 AM (CIcZv)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 14, 2012 08:44 AM (i0vBR)
Posted by: PJ at October 14, 2012 08:44 AM (DQHjw)
Posted by: Bill M at October 14, 2012 09:02 AM (B5XJH)
The numbers were fugly for Obama. On a Saturday. In Michigan.
Michigan.
Be not afraid.
Posted by: trumpetdaddy at October 14, 2012 09:09 AM (dcoFe)
democrats are well known for their understanding of human nature. we might as well, 'from each according to his ability, to each according to his need'.
Posted by: apetra at October 14, 2012 09:45 AM (SmDZ1)
That is pathetic. Laughably pathetic.
Posted by: tdpwells at October 14, 2012 09:57 AM (7vA7k)
Posted by: roy at October 14, 2012 10:47 AM (ROUVS)
Posted by: Callie Q at October 14, 2012 11:31 AM (g0g0k)
Posted by: Rogerthat at October 14, 2012 11:40 AM (g0g0k)
Posted by: steevy at October 14, 2012 11:50 AM (6o4Fb)
Posted by: Steve at October 14, 2012 11:53 AM (8gUKR)
--
Ditto on both points. I think there will be massive turnout but I don't care if I have to wait in line for hours. The satisfaction of voting this election will be worth it and after nearly four long years, any wait time is a drop in the bucket.
Posted by: Mayday at October 14, 2012 12:23 PM (F3s39)
Culturally, the research shows lower income/blacks/college students/females are much more likely to vote early. The GOP loves to vote more in-person.
My prediction is that:
Obama wins early voting 61-39.
Early voting accounts for 40% of voters.
Romney wins day of voters 54-44 (60% of voters)
Obama wins the state 50.8-48 . That is my conservative guess.
Posted by: Brian at October 14, 2012 01:33 PM (vYTda)
Romney's going to win Va despite the commie long-hair old bat freaks, and even the ugly hags who were singing and playing guitar the other evening who have been at my subway stop in Arlington (Courthouse, home of lefty kooks). Saw a hispanic guy in a truck todaty with a Romney bumper sticker, certainly NOT the typical Mitt demo. Mitt's killing it down in Southern and Western VA which is where the margin for Obama and Webb came from. Allen might be able to pull it out too.
Dave in FLA is right, Mitt picking up points on the weekend is huge.
Posted by: Stephanie Cutter's hooch at October 14, 2012 01:46 PM (O0v9Z)
As a independent liberal, I don't see how anyone could vote for Romney when it comes to tax policy, healthcare, abortion rights, foreign policy, gay rights, & etc. However, it would be very appealing if Romney would admit global warming is real, distance himself form the religious right, & stop erasing all of his policy beliefs.
Posted by: Brian at October 14, 2012 01:46 PM (vYTda)
Obama - Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire
Romney- Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado
Posted by: Brian at October 14, 2012 01:48 PM (vYTda)
Posted by: Se Léodweardprætt Hæt at October 14, 2012 02:12 PM (sZTYJ)
Posted by: FedupWithFed at October 14, 2012 03:03 PM (PeRlA)
Posted by: FedupWithFed at October 14, 2012 03:04 PM (PeRlA)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 14, 2012 06:45 PM (i0vBR)
"tax policy" - Obama raises taxes and increases the deficit and kills jobs. How is that a good thing?
", healthcare" - Obamacare destroys healthcare innovation and choice, is unaffordable, and kills jobs. Repealing it is the only humane thing to do.
"abortion rights" Biology101: The unborn are human beings; Ethics 101: It's not a good thing to kill human beings.
"foreign policy" Obama lied. Our ambassador died.
", gay rights" Romney supports gay rights. He also supports families and traditional marriage. Why not be tolerant and let the two co-exist? Why so aggressive?
" would admit global warming is real" It's as real as the Easter Bunny.
Global warming stopped 16 years ago - check out Watts Up With That on that.
"distance himself form the religious right" Why 'distance' yourself from real Americans who only want to raise their children in a Christian way?
"stop erasing all of his policy beliefs" Nice strawman you got there.
So you will vote of Obama on the basis of a pack of lies, misunderstandings, misdirections and ignorance of real biology, ethics and economics. Figures.
Posted by: Harry P Ness Reid at October 14, 2012 08:22 PM (WhCZZ)
I thought Soledad O'Brien had that slogan trademarked.
Posted by: Harry P Ness Reid at October 14, 2012 08:23 PM (WhCZZ)
1) America only industrialized country to have a conservative party not to believe in global warming
2) A woman's right to choose is key --I support abortion rights and funding for contraception /planned parenthood- Personhood amendments are garbage and economically crippling for women.
3) Obamacare needs fixes-- but it covers millions more then the alternative
4) Gay rights - are an important issue in which the GOP even fought against repealing DADT-- what will they do when the Supreme Court repeals the Defense of Marriage Act 5-4
5) Taxes -- Top rate must move to 39%. That is my position.
6) Protect Unions and Labor
Posted by: Brian at October 15, 2012 05:38 AM (vYTda)
Hide Comments | Add Comment | Refresh | Top
64 queries taking 0.2719 seconds, 362 records returned.
Powered by Minx 1.1.6c-pink.
Posted by: Clyde Shelton at October 14, 2012 12:11 AM (vUK/h)