1 Foist?

2 I think I' m gonna ignore polls till after tomorrows Obamacare announcement. should cause some movement One way or the other.

3 I will spend no money in any state that goes for barky in Nov.

4 So please Tennessee, go with mittens. We're talking about putting all gig money "in a can" and going to Nashville to cut a CD next year.

5 I take this Q polling as serious as I do Michael MedvedÂ’s movie reviews. The OH poll alone shows Dems being oversampled from what it was in 08. DonÂ’t buy any of these. OH & FL are still projected as Weak Romney states for me and PA as leans Obama

6 Time to get ready for work. And morning Vic. Have a great day sir.

7 I just cut my thumb on a cereal box. Maybe I should go back to bed.

8 People lie.

9 Statistics = Liars math.

10 08 exits had OH (D+ , PA (D+7), FL (D+3), Q poll samples: OH (D+ , PA (D+ , FL (D+3); yeah I smell a rat too

11 I just don't get it..  the economy is in the toilet.. Europe is in shambles and may us down with it..  The SCOAMF is trampling on the Constitution..  and HALF the freakin' country wants to re-elect the sonofabitch?? 

W.T.F.???????????????

12 It doesn't take an artist to take a poll, CAC.


Just kidding don't taze me bro!

13 Hey,  CAC!

I happened to be on Twitter this morning when this came out. 

First,  Zeke Miller of Buzzfeed had a tweet which said "In my inbox" followed by the results in ALL CAPS.

Then Mark Halperin tweeted the results not one minute later.

Then,  about a minute after that Rick Klein of ABC tweeted it.

So I asked Rick if he got the same email as the other reporters I follow. 

And he answered me in a very Clintonesque manner,  that there were no press releases from polling firms this morning.

So I told him that he must have gotten the same email that Miller did,  and I assumed it was from the Obama campaign.

Podhoretz of the New York Post says the margin of error on some of the swing states is +/- 10.  Do not know if he is right,  only reporting what popped up on my Twitter feed. 

End of report.

14 I wonder if Maine's redistricted 2nd CD electoral vote is in play, and if it will make a difference?

15 The Ohio results are complete dogshit.  Those simple fuckheads should be horsewhipped for releasing garbage like that.

16 I'm not so sure Florida is a straight toss up. It is a big State and the Obama admin has not been making friends there: http://tinyurl.com/7ocyn5m

17 this isnÂ’t about not liking the numbers. If this were LV polling w/ reasonable samples then iÂ’d be pushing the panic button. Their not. They hope for a 08 electorate, a special storm that once in a lifetime. Only a fool would expect a 08 electorate this November. Trash these polls.

18 Update:  Chuck Todd just tweeted he will be on Today with latest Ohio/Florida results!  His hero is saved!!  LMAO!

19

Anyone see this yesterday?

 

 federal appeals court ruled on Tuesday that the EPA is “unambiguously correct” in its assertion that industry and vehicle emissions are a danger to public health — one of the central tenets of their argument that they have ample justification for regulating greenhouse gases through the Clean Air Act.

20 and even w/ Quinnipiac doing everything in their power to give Obama the lead in these states, he can't get the magic 50% support mark

21 Does an early CAC poll thread mean no news thread?

22 19 Anyone see this yesterday? Federal appeals court ruled on Tuesday that the EPA is “unambiguously correct” in its assertion that industry and vehicle emissions are a danger to public health — one of the central tenets of their argument that they have ample justification for regulating greenhouse gases through the Clean Air Act. Posted by: Velvet Ambition at June 27, 2012 07:17 AM (mFxQX) A direct attack on coal fire power plants. Didn't the brilliant one say that electricity prices will necessarily skyrocket?

23 Chuck also says that how a president responds to natural disasters is important in elections,  and Colorado and Florida are swing states! 

Oh,  the suspense.  How will FEMA perform?  Will the Florida citizens be on TV complaining,  or will they have fulsome praise for their hero president? 
Will Colorado citizens be given help to recover  or will they be stiffed by the evil GOP?

The suspense on how NBC will cover this critical election year story is killing me.

24 21 Does an early CAC poll thread mean no news thread? Posted by: Vic at June 27, 2012 07:22 AM (YdQQY) Only if you say it does. It is my opinion that this is your show from 7-9 AM.

25 @ 11, my thoughts exactly. Too depressing to even think about. Can't read any more polls, websites, blogs, etc. Just makes me want to tear my hair out. More Obama? Goodbye economy, religious freedom and common sense.

26 It is my opinion that this is your show from 7-9 AM. I concur. Have some doom bathed and perfumed and brought to my tent.

27 I just heard the Supreme court has decided to rule today and the fast and Furious vote will also be taken today. I also just heard on my morning talk show, the guy rarely gets thing wrong, that Boner, Romney and the RNC want to put F&F on the back burner because they are afraid of losing hispanic votes.

28 Morning thread up.

29 #27  I have no idea why this would cause a loss of Hispanic votes,  since in my opinion we are seeking justice for 200 dead Mexicans.

30 If The People are really stupid enough to re-elect the lightworker then it really is true that we live in a post-American world. I think most of these polls are BS though. The real back and forth of the campaign hasn't started yet. How is it going to play when the MSM has to cover Obama saying the economy is recovering while all indicators say otherwise? I think even liberals (some) are sick of everyone being called a racist and despite the lack of education, capitalist kids don't want a Communist Country. They want to be rich.

31 I have Florida and Ohio going to Mitt.  Pa., well you know Philadelphia.

32 I seem to remember that Q-Pac has completely blown some of their latest polls. Even going back to the 2010 election.

They have credibility because...?

33 I just cannot fathom how people in this country could possible give another terms to an absolute disaster... We are so in trouble as a nation going forward...

34

These polls are as accurate and the unemployment figures!

 

35 I don't believe the FL numbers based on what I'm seeing in Palm Beach and Broward counties as I drive around. 

36 CAC, Selena Zito was on Batchelor on Monday night.  I'm not fond of her.  She knows PA.  In the last election she was out there with one of the races being the contrarian.  No matter what evidence to the contrary Batchelor presented to her, no matter how hard he tried to push her.  She stuck to her guns saying the republican might not win.  He/she didn't.  I wasn't paying that close attention but the fact that she went against everyone and was right stuck in my mind.  Anyway, Monday night she didn't seem to hopeful for Mitt in PA and the most he could push her was 2 points either way probably not the way Batchelor wants.  It's worth listening to her, it's almost as though she came out of the womb and immediately entered the political reporting realm, she knows her state better than anyone I've ever listened to.

My take away was mittens, if he wants PA, needs to get to work.

37 Trying to discredit these results don't make them go away. The economy sucks and Romney can't make any headway. Doesn't this say something about the guy? He's raising a ton of money, but Obama is the one running a ton of ads. Maybe, just maybe, those ads are having an impact? Or maybe, just maybe, Mitt sucks as a candidate!

38 zzz

39 Well you have an incumbent president in a country that believes in second chances.  I'm sure Mitt and his team realize they have their work cut out for them.

40 The OH results can be question due to the biased sample, but the Florida poll is just awful for Romney. The sample is fine, and yet Mitt still is behind in a state that was supposed to be safely Republican this cycle. The map is shaping up to be just like Obama vs McCain, with IN and NC going to Romney as the only changes.

41 Thirsty, so very thirsty.......

42 Yep, Q and PP are both complete bullshit pollsters using completely fictional samples.

They are trying to create the meme out there that Obama is unbeatable in these swing states.  What bs.  The sad part is that the Left screams about how fake and right-wing Rasmussen is when he is the ONLY pollster that uses real party weightings.

The "true" pollsters like PPP and Q use these insane messes.

43

@37 -

 

Ed Rendell was on the radio this morning he said the Obama ads are having an effect. I don't know, I haven't seen them because I don't own a TV right now.

Here's what appeared in my inbox yesterday, from Congressman Meehan:

The Democrats are hemorrhaging independent voters in key swing states like Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania. Just yesterday, the news outlet POLITICO reported that Obama will “live and die by the size of the margin he produces out of Philadelphia and how well he does in its populous suburbs.”
 
The President's campaign managers know that if they lose here, they'll lose the election – this is their Alamo.
___

How well he does in Philadelphia populous suburbs.

Not the same energy for the One that was evident four years ago. With the EPA ruling out of DC, Romney needs to reassure Pennsylvanians that he will roll back coal industry destroying EPA dictats.

Nobody said it was going to be easy, but Romney could turn PA, all he has to do is flip Montco or Delco. Bucks and Chester counties already flipped in 2010.

Obama is his own worst enemy, between now and Nov. he likely will do something to make indies hate him even more.

44

They are trying to create the meme out there that Obama is unbeatable in these swing states.

___

yep

45 "Yep, Q and PP are both complete bullshit pollsters using completely fictional samples." What is the "fictional sample" used in Q's Florida polling? The fact of the matter is that it's a decent sample and they've gotten the same result two polls in a row. Just because you don't like it doesn't make it untrue. If Mitt was going to make this a competitive race, he would be comfortably ahead in Florida. Just look at the internals of the NBC/Wall St Journal poll. A majority of the American public believe the economy is in recovery, so of course Obama is winning. Add in the huge advantage in likability for Obama and electable Mitt isn't so electable after all.

46 "What is the "fictional sample" used in Q's Florida polling? The fact of the matter is that it's a decent sample and they've gotten the same result two polls in a row. Just because you don't like it doesn't make it untrue"

DrSmith

Are you completely insane?  They gave Dems a +8 advantage in the OH sample.  Dems were +2 in OH in 2008.  Are you saying that with Obama's wild success they had quadrupled that lead now?

What an idiot.

47 A majority of the American public believe the economy is in recovery, so of course Obama is winning. Add in the huge advantage in likability for Obama and electable Mitt isn't so electable after all.

Posted by: DrSmith at June 27, 2012 08:47 AM (Xa2if)

Bullshit. Besides the MFM no one is buying that the economy is in a recovery. And that whole likeability thing is rubbish when you're out of work too.

48 Bill Mitchell, Of course, you ignored the question I asked about FL and brought up Ohio, which I already said was a crappy sample. What is "fictional" about the sample used in Florida? The truth is it's very reasonable and Mitt is still doing poorly there.

49

A majority of the American public believe the economy is in recovery,

 

___

 

Where's your support for this claim?

 

Here in the Philadelphia suburbs, which haven't been hit as hard by the recession due to the diversity of jobs available, the unemployment rate is still above what it was before Obama was elected. Statewide, it's 7.4% today as opposed to 5.6% in Sep 2008.

***

 

The metric that that will hurt Obama is the one recently released about the average household wealth declining 40%. This is due mainly to the housing crash. Independent voters in Bucks, Montco, Delco and Chesco are not happy with the decline in home values or their 401k losses. They don't feel wealthy anymore. Romney looks like a winner to them. He is a known quantity as an executive. PA indies are going to make Obama pay for promising them a unicorn and not delivering.

 

***

Commercial RE in these parts is dead in the water and has been for at least four years. Residential inventory increases as we speak, further driving down prices. I'd like to see the evidence of the recovery which you claim.

50 "Besides the MFM no one is buying that the economy is in a recovery. And that whole likeability thing is rubbish when you're out of work too. " According to the NBC/Wall St Journal poll out yesterday, 51% believe the economy is in recovery, while 44% don't believe the economy is in recovery. And you are living in fantasyland if you don't think likability is a gigantic factor in elections. EVERY SINGLE POLL shows Obama's likability much higher than Romney's. But keep your head in the sand saying "the only poll that matters is on election day." You ignored the polls in 2008 and got a rude awakening, same thing will happen now.

51

re: Philly burb demo "recovery":

 

Those who survived the 2008/2009 slash and burn are not getting the same raises, if any - as they did pre-crash. Employees who were cut and lucky enough to be rehired are earning a fraction of what they made at their former jobs. Realtors themselves are getting foreclosed on their personal residences. Contents of storage units are being auctioned off because the renters have fallen behind on their storage rent. Despite the fall in gas prices, consumer confidence has fallen another 2.4%.

 

 

In 2008 voters were under the impression that Obama could fix things. The fix never occurred, in fact, things have gotten so much worse than anyone anticipated. If it's true that attack ads are bearing fruit in these swing states, he can only attack so much. At some point, economic reality rears its ugly head.

52 But keep your head in the sand saying "the only poll that matters is on election day." You ignored the polls in 2008 and got a rude awakening, same thing will happen now.

Posted by: DrSmith at June 27, 2012 09:10 AM (oGyUC)

It's a whole different world than 2008. Barry is no longer seen as the messiah except for a small group of true believers. And I'll believe an NBC poll the day I land on the moon. And who in the fark says that Barry is likeable?

53

EVERY SINGLE POLL shows Obama's likability much higher than Romney's.

 

___

 

What about the polls which ask "who would be better at fixing the economy"?

 

Voters may like the Preezy because of his wife's toned arms and his damn fine pants crease... but they want someone to make their financial pain go away. They want substance this time, not style. They want action, not empty rhetoric and promises. Anyway, now he has a record to run on. You think, "Hey, you LIKE ME, you REALLY LIKE me!" is going to work in November?

 

I don't.

 

 

54 Who says Obama is likeable?    Why, the trolls attempting to lipstick this particular pig.  They'll be out in force as a pre-emptive measure before the SCOTUS ruling, you realize.

55 "It's a whole different world than 2008. Barry is no longer seen as the messiah except for a small group of true believers. And I'll believe an NBC poll the day I land on the moon. And who in the fark says that Barry is likeable? " Choose your poll of choice. There isn't a single one that doesn't show Obama having a huge likability advantage. Even people that don't approve of the job he's doing like the guy. GW Bush won his election, in part, because he was seen as more likable than Kerry. The Kos Kids would scoff at that like you guys scoff at the public really liking the guy personally. Facts are facts, whether we like them or not. BTW, the Romney campaign is really boring and I think that's already having an effect on his support.

56 http://www.gallup.com/poll/155351/Likability-Top-Characteristic-Romney-Obama.aspx

57

GW Bush won his election, in part, because he was seen as more likable than Kerry

 

___

 

He won because of Security Moms.

58 In his closing remarks, Reagan asked the viewers a simple yet devastating question that would resonate with voters in 1980 and beyond: "Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we're as strong as we were four years ago? And if you answer all of those questions 'yes', why then, I think your choice is very obvious as to whom you will vote for. If you don't agree, if you don't think that this course that we've been on for the last four years is what you would like to see us follow for the next four, then I could suggest another choice that you have." According to President Carter's Press Secretary Jody Powell's memoirs, internal tracking polls showed the President's tiny lead turning into a major Reagan landslide over the final weekend.




Barry is only liked by the MFM and hardcore liberals. If Romney follows Reagan's script, Barry will be out of a job

59 Romney needs to run ads in PA letting voters know all those shiny new fracking jobs that are popping up in the state will disappear the minute second term Obama's EPA shuts down the industry with regulations.

60 The QPAC polling is RVs not LVs and it's June 27, not September 27.  The OH sampling is troubling with a D+8?  Like to see the sample a little closer to the 2010 turnout in OH.  The PA sample is about right, I'm still a skeptic about Mittens and PA, right now.  Too many unknowns in PA, and how it will break, especially in late June.  An RV sample in FL and Mittens is only behind by 4, not sure I'd be hitting the panic button on this either.

61 "An RV sample in FL and Mittens is only behind by 4, not sure I'd be hitting the panic button on this either." Panic button, no. But Florida is supposed to be the swing state that Romney would be strongest in, and if this is where he stands, it's not good at all, and signals trouble in other states like OH and VA.

62

Too many unknowns in PA, and how it will break, especially in late June.

 

___

True. IMO Montco would be more likely to flip red due to Jewish representation there. teh Won's support has eroded in this population due to his Israel hostility. If they come out against him on the Main Line, put PA in the Romney bucket.

 

Economically speaking, except for the fracking pockets, the rest of the state is a hot mess.

63

It seems entire states can suffer from Stockholm syndrome.

64 From just observing Mittens in the primaries and his bidness life, he's a grinder.  It's not going to be an easy road my any means, but he's not going to give Barky any quarter, like Juan McCain did.  Mittens wants this, and will attack, attack, attack.  The best thing we can do as morons and 'nettes, is to volunteer or give cashish to Mittens.  This is fight worth fighting, which I believe is for the soul of our country, which is freedom.  So, people can either stand on the sidelines, and piss and moan about Mittens not being the perfect candidate, or join in the fight whatever way they can.  I choose to fight, with my wallet, as do many 'rons and 'nettes do.  My 2 pennies, FWIW.

65 Meh

66 I have long and loudly questioned bho's purported "likeability" quotient superiority--for one simple reason, people are polite and they will say time after time after time that they like a person personally, but, do not like the job they are doing.  When you add in race, since the race card still works in anonymous situations, then, of course, everyone says, "Yep, that obama, he is really a likeable guy."  If the person conducting the poll is Black, then, it goes up further, because no one wants to tell some unknown Black person that they don't like zippy, no way, no shape, no how."  People lie.

Polls call me all the time and I simply hang up.  You know why, I don't want to waste the time answering their tailored questions AND I do NOT want them to know what I am thinking.  Let them guess.

I will go even further and say that obama and mooch's "despise-ability" factor is through the roof given the way they have partied hearty on the public dollar through a deep recession.  The man has played 100+ rounds of golf  and countless hours of hoops while many people lost everything.  The big Mooch has been scarfing up caviar, couture, and Cartier like it was in the clearance bin at WalMart and going to be outlawed on the first of next month.

67 I've never liked Q polls. They are biased and sloppy.

I'm also suspicious of polls with large numbers of undecideds.

I have no doubt that people who voted for Obama in 2008 will be reluctant to admit their mistake, but these particular numbers don't make sense to me.  We'll get a lot of rigged polls and it'll be tough to be suspicious of them without cocooning yourself.

68

@64 -

 

I agree. And above all, we all need to:

 

http://tinyurl.com/6u5rnmd

69 Among the reckonings ahead: lying pollsters.

70

These polls are of course loaded with +D bias, and then the clever pollsters reason backward from the poll results to determine what the voters really think.

 

Which is hogwash.

 

The campaigns have better and more subtle internal polling, and I definitely get the vibe that the Obama campaign is worried.  There is a lot that can go wrong for them between now and mid-October.

Mid - October is the key time.  About 2-3 weeks before the election, the low information voters and the independents will start to break one way or the other, and the fog of polling will start to clear.

 

What Romney has to do to win:

1) Energize the Republican/conservative base with strong campaigning and a sharp pick for VP.

2) Do what he is doing right now, retail campaigning at the grass roots level, getting as many people as possible to actually see him and realize he is not some freak with horns.

3) Press the  Obama campaign, and stampede them into making mistakes.  They are not particularly smart with respect to what people really think, and are still insulated by the compliant bullshit media that gives them a daily tongue bath.

 

Exit remark:  People in Ohio are pissed at Obama, but they are not pleased with the Republican Party.  The after effects of the repeal of SB5 from 2011 still linger.  The repeal of SB5 is about the reverse of what happened to Scott Walker in Wisconsin.  What will matter come November is who comes out to vote, and how hard and well Romney campaigns here.

71 Romney will not win, we've been saying that since the primary.  10 to 15% of us conservatives will NOT vote for the inventor and facilitator of Obamacare.  He cannot make up for that huge indifference he created amongst true conservatives.

72

I just saw the sidebar link about Preezy's upcoming bus tour through PA and OH. We'll be able to gauge the enthusiasm for him in the Keystone State if the adoring crowds comprise anything more than SEIU types.

73 Holder is using F&F to gin up the base in a phoney, "Look how the GOP is treating the first black AG!" effort.

Expect more bullshit like this. Obama has no record, so he has to win by pandering to each piece of his base and getting them fired up.

His black vote has been slipping (and coming out for ghey marriage didn't help). So surrogates Sharpton and Jackson are crying raaaaaaacism again.

74 10 to 15% of us conservatives will NOT vote for the inventor and facilitator of Obamacare You are a profoundly silly person, doug.

75 Romney has put Obama on the defensive, but the best defense is a good offense. He is not giving the voters a reason to replace the incumbent. The ABO crowd will support him no matter what, and current polling is showing you there is a ceiling on that in swing states where Bush was unpopular in the end. My family is in Cuyahoga County and they love Obama. "He is doing the best he can." They like his wife and have children around the same age as his daughters. Romney is the poster child for the 1% to them. My mom voted for Perot and then W both times, but she was sick of him by 2008 and now loves Obama.

76 this is o/t but i was just told that morris was pushing rubio on some cable show last night.

77 I continue to be stunned at the mental laziness and moral vacuousness of 50% of the American people.

78

Yeah, Morris pushed Rubio to Ingraham (sitting in for O'Reilly).  He thinks its the surest way to win in Florida, and (to him)  Florida is the key to the election.  I suppose so, but I'm wondering how we get the 47% of Ohioans to get their brains in gear too. 

Can a Veep candidate swing a state vote?  Controversial topic, that.

79 surely the exit question was facetious?

80 Portman is too close to the Bush administration to sway OH. Romney should focus on WI and MI instead of OH and PA unless he is so far ahead he can afford to burn money.

81 "likeability" Do a majority of my fellow Americans really LIKE a preening, narcissistic, tantrum-throwing, dope-addled, childish, mean, callous, manipulative, lying, thuggish BULLY? I keep having to fight the temptation to say that if the American people are this idiotic, we deserve whatever we get. The problem is, all us sane, decent folks and our kids have to live with the consequences of the idiots.

82 So 40 percent of Dem's won't vote for him in a closed primary, swing state Dems are abandoning the convention in droves and we are supposed to buy that 48 percent of the general population will vote for Obama in the fall.

Yeah, right.

83 Given that the only poll that counts is the one on election day, why ever poll "all adults" or "registered voters" who are unlikely to vote? The only reason I can think of is to prop up Dems...

84 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

85 only one poll count. the pole we stick up obama's ass in november~