May 11, 2012
— Ace Rasmussen has Romney opening his biggest lead yet.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney earning 50% of the vote and President Obama attracting 43% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided...
This is the first time Romney has reached the 50% level of support and is his largest lead ever over the president. It comes a week after a disappointing jobs report that raised new questions about the state of the economy.
Ed thinks this might be about Obama's new/old gay marriage position, or at least the shakiness in leadership on display with Bumblin' Joe forcing a reluctant president to come clean.
I initially thought it would be very unlikely that this would move any votes at all.
1, if someone were strongly anti-gay-marriage, or strongly pro-gay-marriage, I have to think they would have chosen a horse already and would not be suddenly reacting to the revelation that the Democrats like gay marriage and the Republicans don't.
2, I don't think marginal voters -- swing voters -- follow things closely enough to even notice how the sausage gets made. I think it's remarkable enough that the least politically interested voters even hear of "sausage" in the first place, never mind the process for making it.
But there is some chance this Obama's declaration did move some voters. If it's the case that, say, only 90% of natural Republican/conservative voters had yet decided to vote for Romney -- if around 10% of such voters were holding back support, due to concerns/anger about Romney -- I guess it is possible that Obama's announcement crystalized the situation for that kind of voter, and might have pushed him towards supporting Romney.
Meh. I like having confirmation in another poll for a big move. I'm going to chalk this up to noise.
Bonus: Andy U points this one out -- Romney leads Obama by 9 points on economic leadership.
Gallup calls this a "slight" lead.
Posted by: Ace at
09:13 AM
| Comments (173)
Post contains 371 words, total size 3 kb.
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 11, 2012 09:16 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at May 11, 2012 09:17 AM (Ec6wH)
Posted by: Bang Out Of Order at May 11, 2012 09:17 AM (1H47k)
Posted by: In before In before the troll at May 11, 2012 09:17 AM (3jGS1)
USAF (read Obama) Decision Puts Gulf Coast Lives in Danger
Posted by: Why does Barry hate brown people? at May 11, 2012 09:18 AM (0It32)
Beyond that, unless Obama turns out to be a stray Westworld android, page me in November. This is actually starting to become boring...
Posted by: Brother Cavil, New Caprica City DMV at May 11, 2012 09:18 AM (GBXon)
This1 This is a thread: "President Obama's former doctor claims that the president lacks passion, feeling and humanity"
Fuck the fucking polls for the last goddamn time already.
Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at May 11, 2012 09:18 AM (ebPtk)
Posted by: the pink cracker formerly known as the hobbit Donna at May 11, 2012 09:19 AM (ZHge+)
Suckers.
Posted by: Leo Ladenson at May 11, 2012 09:19 AM (mAm+G)
Posted by: Father Bully at May 11, 2012 09:19 AM (HOOye)
Posted by: Gabby Johnson at May 11, 2012 09:19 AM (QKKT0)
Posted by: Infidel at May 11, 2012 09:19 AM (O/fK8)
Posted by: Sgt. Fury at May 11, 2012 09:20 AM (twVol)
Posted by: polls and more damn polls at May 11, 2012 09:20 AM (HOOye)
I see a doctor about to lose his license. Unexpectedly, ofcourse.
Posted by: EC at May 11, 2012 09:20 AM (GQ8sn)
Posted by: Rocks at May 11, 2012 09:21 AM (Q1lie)
Posted by: Reggie Love at May 11, 2012 09:22 AM (jucos)
It's Friday. I just got a random refund check in the mail. It's gorgeous out. I have a vat o'sweet tea. Now this.
brb rolling around in the goodness
Of course, being me, this means a meteor is sure to slam into me annnny second now.
Posted by: alexthechick at May 11, 2012 09:22 AM (VtjlW)
Posted by: spongeworthy at May 11, 2012 09:23 AM (r5w1L)
One of you people who live inside my computer linked to a little story about that cocksucker Matt Taibbi, yesterday.
Taibbi listed a few solid reasons why Obama is gonna cruise into a second term.
"You have a relatively popular incumbent, the economy is not doing terribly and traditionally – especially the candidate who has a fundraising advantage – almost always wins."
Obama Biden 2012
We're Relatively Popular; the Economy Isn't Too Shitty; And We Can Raise a Bagfull of Cash
Posted by: Soothsayer at May 11, 2012 09:23 AM (G/zuv)
Posted by: Spike at May 11, 2012 09:23 AM (wtnmC)
Posted by: polls and more damn polls at May 11, 2012 09:23 AM (HOOye)
Posted by: Trollworth P. Fuckwhistle at May 11, 2012 09:24 AM (A+odv)
Posted by: alexthechick at May 11, 2012 01:22 PM (VtjlW)
Might be a good day to take a hot bath while re-calibrating the light meter on your laptop cam?
Posted by: Moron A/V Dept. at May 11, 2012 09:25 AM (fl7ev)
This is NOT about the Gay issue per se... but it IS about him flipping on it.
It reminds people of his lack of character. Add in the silly attacks on Romney about bullying, while he admited to it himself?
This all just reminds people that he is a Politician with no scruples or morals.. and that he IS UnAmerican in his outlook...
Add in a bit of "Gay marriage looses at the polls, but I KNOW BETTER than those voters'?
He's destroying his own image... and the electorate is responding.
Posted by: Roemo13 at May 11, 2012 09:26 AM (lZBBB)
Posted by: Sam I Am at May 11, 2012 09:26 AM (ShuAW)
Posted by: polls and more damn polls at May 11, 2012 09:26 AM (HOOye)
Posted by: occam at May 11, 2012 09:26 AM (hgDJr)
FUCK YOU NAZIS - ALL LIES!!!!!
FUCK YOU NAZIS - ALL LIES!!!!!
FUCK YOU NAZIS - ALL LIES!!!!!
FUCK YOU NAZIS - ALL LIES!!!!!
FUCK YOU NAZIS - ALL LIES!!!!!
FUCK YOU NAZIS - ALL LIES!!!!!
FUCK YOU NAZIS - ALL LIES!!!!!
FUCK YOU NAZIS - ALL LIES!!!!!
FUCK YOU NAZIS - ALL LIES!!!!!
FUCK YOU NAZIS - ALL LIES!!!!!
FUCK YOU NAZIS - ALL LIES!!!!!
FUCK YOU NAZIS - ALL LIES!!!!!
FUCK YOU NAZIS - ALL LIES!!!!!
*SPIT*
Posted by: KayInMaine at May 11, 2012 09:26 AM (/Aauo)
But this poll tells just about nothing about the election's final outcome. Still, it's a good way to start the weekend.
Can't wait to see how the JEF responds - probably more shrill whining about how people just don't understand that Presidenting is hard.
Posted by: RightWingProf at May 11, 2012 09:26 AM (IC6Er)
Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at May 11, 2012 09:26 AM (ebPtk)
Posted by: polls and more damn polls at May 11, 2012 09:27 AM (HOOye)
Posted by: Sgt. Fury at May 11, 2012 09:27 AM (twVol)
*****
This goes in the "keeper" file alongside T. Coddington Van Vorhees the VII
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 11, 2012 09:28 AM (piMMO)
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at May 11, 2012 09:28 AM (B+qrE)
Posted by: Cicero at May 11, 2012 09:29 AM (QKKT0)
Well Ed over at Tepid Air had the breakdown and it did have Republicans slightly higher than the Dems.Actually R/D/I were all pretty close. It supposedly reflects the current party affiliations.The over-sampling of Dems has probably made Obama have higher numbers than he actually has. in some polls. Rass. also does likely voters where others do Registered voters...
Posted by: the pink cracker formerly known as the hobbit Donna at May 11, 2012 09:29 AM (ZHge+)
Looks like Romney's picking up all of the disaffected John Edwards voters.
If he starts off the convention by saying, "I'm Willard Romney, reporting for duty," we'll have this in the bag.
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at May 11, 2012 09:29 AM (Ec6wH)
Of course, being me, this means a meteor is sure to slam into me annnny second now.
Put on your meteor hat!
Posted by: eleven at May 11, 2012 09:29 AM (fsLdt)
I LICK CARPETS!
I LICK CARPETS!
I LICK CARPETS!
I LICK CARPETS!
I LICK CARPETS!
I LICK CARPETS!
I LICK CARPETS!
Posted by: aVerAgE kAy [/i] [/b] at May 11, 2012 09:30 AM (ebPtk)
Posted by: Mitt "the bully" Romney at May 11, 2012 09:30 AM (m38+j)
*****
Write a book. Problem solved!
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 11, 2012 09:30 AM (piMMO)
Posted by: sonnyspats at May 11, 2012 09:30 AM (bo11P)
Posted by: KayInMaineat May 11, 2012 01:26 PM (/Aauo)
Now, now - Kay.
A lady always swallows.
Posted by: Zombie Emily Post at May 11, 2012 09:31 AM (fl7ev)
Posted by: booger at May 11, 2012 09:31 AM (HI6wa)
If people held Jugears to the standard the other 43 men to hold the office were held to he'd be in the 30s regardless of party loyalty.
Posted by: sven10077 at May 11, 2012 09:31 AM (LRFds)
Posted by: Crazy Bald Guy at May 11, 2012 09:32 AM (tCOxP)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 11, 2012 09:32 AM (8y9MW)
Might be a good day to take a hot bath while re-calibrating the light meter on your laptop cam?
Oh good suggestion! I'll have to make a note to do that later.
Most people are surprised by meteors crashing through their houses. But you won't be.
More lemons into lemonade for you!!!!!
Heh. Boy BFF explains the difference between his luck and my luck this way. He and I will be walking down the street. I will be killed when a meteor slams into me. He will become a multi-millionaire when he retrieves the meteor out of my smoking carcass and it turns out to be pure plutonium. He will then use my horrible tragic death to pick up women. Because I'd want it that way.
Posted by: alexthechick at May 11, 2012 09:32 AM (VtjlW)
Fuck the fucking polls for the last goddamn time already.
****
All successful projects require mile markers and plans for celebrating small wins.
It keeps the forces motivated and engaged.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 11, 2012 09:32 AM (piMMO)
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 11, 2012 09:32 AM (RD7QR)
The cynicism and hypocrisy of the move is a more subtle story with fewer megaphones at Romney's disposal.
Nevertheless, I think it has a chance to hurt Obama long-term in the Electoral College, which is what's important. So he better capitalize on it now. Even more so than Bin Laden's killing, he has to realize the half-life of the political theater part of it is short.
Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at May 11, 2012 09:33 AM (UCR1O)
Posted by: Infidel at May 11, 2012 09:33 AM (O/fK8)
Posted by: beach and a Kindle at May 11, 2012 09:33 AM (HOOye)
In the lower thread Calvin just posted a quote from RDjr from 2008.
What changed since then? I'll tell you what changed.
RDjr is doing really well and someone came up to him and said hey, that's a nice career and bank account you have there, shame if something happened to them.
Posted by: Soothsayer at May 11, 2012 09:33 AM (G/zuv)
Posted by: Sam I Am at May 11, 2012 09:34 AM (ShuAW)
Remember that Gallup is using that 7 day average, now. If there's a bump for Romney, Ras will show it earlier (since he's still using a 3 day average, yes?). If there's going to be one, look to see it in Gallup probably Tues or Wed next week.
Otherwise, this probably is "noise."
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 11, 2012 09:34 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Nameless Horror at May 11, 2012 09:34 AM (O2ypu)
Posted by: American Association for the Advancement of Alliteration at May 11, 2012 09:34 AM (PmTnq)
Posted by: Jimbo at May 11, 2012 09:35 AM (O3R/2)
Posted by: CoolCzech at May 11, 2012 09:35 AM (niZvt)
****
And he's a father now. Besides, he has been at the lowest of the lows in his life and turned it around and made a success out of himself.
People who have done that expect others to do the same.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 11, 2012 09:35 AM (piMMO)
So he's saying he's a sociopath.
Shit , we knew that already. Next news flash: The sun is hot.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at May 11, 2012 09:36 AM (sbV1u)
Geraldo was raped by a TSA agent?
Hell, I'd have done a cavity search with a flashlight rolled in bees wax and crushed glass.
Posted by: Zombie Queen Victoria at May 11, 2012 09:36 AM (Qxdfp)
****
There's a judge in NY that's like to approve it.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 11, 2012 09:36 AM (piMMO)
Posted by: beach and a Kindle at May 11, 2012 09:36 AM (HOOye)
Don't play with your food!
Posted by: Pres. O'diddy [/i] [/b] at May 11, 2012 09:37 AM (ebPtk)
Posted by: CAC at May 11, 2012 09:37 AM (z7ks9)
Ed should wear a bike helmet for every outing.
Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at May 11, 2012 09:39 AM (ebPtk)
*****
I suspect there are a lot of people out there still holding on to "hope" that things will "change" for the better. Eventually, some of those will come to their senses and either go Romney or stay home.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 11, 2012 09:39 AM (piMMO)
Posted by: Greg Q at May 11, 2012 09:39 AM (4Pleu)
in favor of human-dog sexual relations.Posted by: CoolCzech
Don't play with your food!
Posted by: Pres. O'diddy at May 11, 2012 01:37 PM (ebPtk)
It's okay, just sell it to the people in the next village over.
Posted by: Imam joncelli Ibn Jerry al Death to American mit Hate Israel at May 11, 2012 09:39 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: CAC at May 11, 2012 09:40 AM (z7ks9)
Obama will let unemployment benefits end then blame it on Republicans. Of course, the communist media will join him in his efforts. Americans, dumer than a box of rocks, will re-elect Obama. I have no doubt it will work.
Posted by: burt at May 11, 2012 09:41 AM (OzqQM)
Thanks corrupt media assholes!
Posted by: laceyunderalls at May 11, 2012 09:41 AM (pLTLS)
But I have to agree about the Poll Posts.
Enough already. They deserve a mention in the sidebar to keep us informed.
The last thing we want to become is a bunch of poll watchers.
Posted by: Soothsayer at May 11, 2012 09:41 AM (G/zuv)
Posted by: Tommy V at May 11, 2012 09:41 AM (iJ5jJ)
"To be fair ... "
/EdMorrisseyMode
Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at May 11, 2012 09:41 AM (ebPtk)
Posted by: Pippy the Chihuahua at May 11, 2012 09:42 AM (48wze)
Posted by: Tami at May 11, 2012 09:42 AM (X6akg)
I still can't believe we have people who think Joe Biden made a screw up last Sunday.
The whole thing was scripted.
Posted by: Soothsayer at May 11, 2012 09:43 AM (G/zuv)
Heh. You're gonna be saying that six times a day until November.
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ braucht ein Bier at May 11, 2012 09:43 AM (/kI1Q)
The whole thing was scripted.
***
Indeed.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 11, 2012 09:44 AM (piMMO)
Posted by: Barry "mr sensitive" O-K at May 11, 2012 09:44 AM (0It32)
Posted by: © Sponge at May 11, 2012 09:44 AM (+jZjt)
I put as much stock in this:
The black community does NOT like gay marriage.
...as I do in the claim that hispanics are inclined to conservatism.
Posted by: Soothsayer at May 11, 2012 09:45 AM (G/zuv)
Really.
Ed Morrissey is a child when it comes to politics.
Posted by: Soothsayer at May 11, 2012 01:40 PM (G/zuv)
Jobless benefits end for 230,000 this weekend
posted at 10:41 am on May 11, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
(Hot Air link) http://tinyurl.com/8xdq7oo
My (jwb) observation:
As expected, the unemployment rate will fall again.
By a lot this time.
Posted by: jwb7605 at May 11, 2012 09:45 AM (Qxe/p)
Oh, I dunno. Biden's a loose cannon.
Besides, when I look at how they handle everything from the economy, to Solyndra, to Fast and Furious to the "whiteness" of their campaign operation, and on and on and on... the explanation of incompetence is a lot more persuasive
"Never attribute to malice what can be explained by mere stupidity"
- Shit Jefferson Said, Vol 1.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at May 11, 2012 09:46 AM (sbV1u)
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at May 11, 2012 09:46 AM (piMMO)
I still can't believe we have people who think Joe Biden made a screw up last Sunday.
The whole thing was scripted.
I can't believe Biden managed to stay on script. I mean, really, who goes "Quick! We need a clever plan! Get me Joe Biden!"
Posted by: alexthechick at May 11, 2012 09:46 AM (VtjlW)
As one of the other commentors says: "The Democrats aren't running against McCain this time. They're running against Breitbart."
Which is to say: I do doubt it will work. One of the things that is slowly happening while America slowly wakes is that Americans are realizing that the Media is complicit (at minimum) in the Democrats' deception. They're questioning more of what they read and see in the Media.
Maybe all of them won't realize what's going on, but I suspect enough will.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 11, 2012 09:47 AM (8y9MW)
That's about as close to calling the sitting President a full blown psychopath as I have ever seen.
Good call.
Posted by: An Observation at May 11, 2012 09:48 AM (ylhEn)
Posted by: wheatie at May 11, 2012 09:48 AM (g4NO6)
Oh, I dunno. Biden's a loose cannon.
If you watch the interview, Biden is not at all surprised by the topic. And he doesn't skip a beat while giving his answer. No hemming. No hawing.
In fact, I'll bet that Joe Biden delivered his lines too strongly and was supposed to hem and haw a little bit.
Posted by: Soothsayer at May 11, 2012 09:49 AM (G/zuv)
As expected, the unemployment rate will fall again.
By a lot this time.
But does it really matter what the numbers say when the real unemployment figure is so high?
The pain is real. If they said unemployment was 1% would it matter?
The chocolate ration has been increased!
Posted by: eleven at May 11, 2012 09:49 AM (fsLdt)
It started before Slow Joe's non-gaff. Remember the Grenell story? Romney not-staffer who was
Yeah. I'm betting this was orchestrated that far back, at least.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 11, 2012 09:49 AM (8y9MW)
He's here if you're queer.
Buy some Obama gay apparel
Does this mean the Obama Dildo is going to be making a comeback?
Posted by: garrett at May 11, 2012 09:50 AM (fl7ev)
Puhlease. Scripted, indeed.
Posted by: laceyunderalls at May 11, 2012 09:50 AM (pLTLS)
...and traditionally – especially the candidate who has a
fundraising advantage – almost always wins."
The ONLY Democrat president to win re-election since FDR was Clinton.
And that was probably thanks to the House that was controlled by Newt Gingrich holding the line on spending and allowing the economy to flourish.
Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at May 11, 2012 09:51 AM (0xqzf)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at work at May 11, 2012 09:51 AM (4/NTV)
Posted by: laceyunderalls at May 11, 2012 01:50 PM (pLTLS)
You aren't kidding.Too bad these things keep blowing up in their faces...
Posted by: the pink cracker formerly known as the hobbit Donna at May 11, 2012 09:52 AM (ZHge+)
Don't forget Good Ole H Ross. Or, for that matter, Bob Dole.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 11, 2012 09:52 AM (8y9MW)
Yeah, maybe, maybe not. You could be right. But it doesn't change the fact that the entire Obama operation is incompetent. Of course, when the MFM is on your side that erases most of that perception and buys you 8 points in polls.
Which is why I think it would be HILARIOUS if Obama got buried in an electoral landslide that the MFM never saw coming.
Matt Taibbi, call your office.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at May 11, 2012 09:53 AM (sbV1u)
The Washington Examiner reports Obama wants to repeal DOMA
President Obama declared his personal support for same-sex marriage yesterday, but the White House chose not to push for the repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act today.
"Well, party platform issues are for the party to decide," White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said when asked if Obama would call for the repeal of DOMA and endorsement of pro-gay marriage language in the party platform. "That process is underway, and I refer you to the DNC on the question about the platform."
He added that "the PresidentÂ’s belief that DOMA ought to be repealed is well stated."
Carney refused to disclose when Obama actually completed the process of "evolving" towards support for gay marriage. "I donÂ’t have a specific date for you," he said.
Posted by: sonnyspats at May 11, 2012 09:54 AM (bo11P)
How does this man say these things with a straight face? When your candidate is the President, he pretty well dictates the platform.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 11, 2012 09:56 AM (8y9MW)
If you're unemployed and the government is keeping you afloat, you'll probably vote for the party who will keep the checks rolling out.
If you're employed and rely on the media, you'll believe unemployment would be worse without our savior.
Those who know what's really going on will vote accordingly, but when they try to tell others the media isn't being truthful they'll be labeled as cranks, racists, and haters.
Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at May 11, 2012 09:59 AM (UCR1O)
Sean, aye, the Obama Team is incompetent at leading the nation.
But they're experts at making the GOP trip over their own dicks and at fooling the electorate.
Posted by: Soothsayer, and things of that nature at May 11, 2012 10:01 AM (G/zuv)
Posted by: JPS at May 11, 2012 10:01 AM (PVzSz)
Tell that to your friends and they'll think your a little over the top.
Stand around outside yelling it with a catchers mask and glove without any pants and they call the police.
Posted by: DaveA (I'll be back you can't keep the democrats in the white house forever) at May 11, 2012 10:02 AM (ZYrSB)
Given the track record there with the hetero variety, I'm not sure that means a whole lot.
Posted by: Brother Cavil, New Caprica City DMV at May 11, 2012 10:06 AM (GBXon)
Posted by: Soothsayer
There go all my hot fantasies about Ironman. Shit.
Posted by: mpfs at May 11, 2012 10:06 AM (iYbLN)
Sean, aye, the Obama Team is incompetent at leading the nation.
But they're experts at making the GOP trip over their own dicks and at fooling the electorate.
They used to be. Now the Obama Team seems to be not only tripping over their own dicks, but castrating themselves with a rusty hacksaw.
Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at May 11, 2012 10:07 AM (YmPwQ)
Posted by: NC Mountain Girl at May 11, 2012 10:07 AM (VvrNA)
Posted by: Captain FAPtastical at May 11, 2012 10:09 AM (/pd0C)
My take. I find [want to find] positives here. SCOAMF must be getting desperate for cash. He's so desperate that he is willing to risk driving the evangelicals [huckabees] to Romney. This is counter to the usual Dem strategy of depressing the vote of their electoral enemy. It may be counterproductive because it energizes the reluctant.
I also don't buy the Biden apology. This whole thing has been scripted like the war of womyn and Trayvon, etc. There is no reason to have Biden make any apology public except to create the image of the furrowed brow Obama "evolving" and [gasp] being forced to do so. Consider the timing of the WaPo gay bullying story and the SCOAMF's vists to gay friendly states [WA and CAL] for fund-raisers.
We need to run these asshole Commies out of the country
Posted by: The Poster Formerly Known as Mr. Barky at May 11, 2012 10:13 AM (qwK3S)
Think about it, if you have a master strategy in place, do send Biden out to spear head it?
Also, the flak they took from all sides for several days tells me they were caught flat-footed.
Come November, this is REALLY going to hurt Obama. Sure, it brought in a few extra million from Hollywood, but I would argue 80-90% of that money was going to be there anyway. I'd much rather have the votes in places like Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia instead.
Posted by: Brigadier at May 11, 2012 10:15 AM (0kf1G)
2
A lot of women--the Missus included--were turned off by Palin's selection last cycle because they saw it as a too-obvious pander. I wonder if this last piece of cowardice and cynicism was just too much for some, just too blatant.
Anecdotally, I would say you could be correct. A coworker of mine who is slightly left of Feingold is pissed about the lack of transparency in this whole charade. She definitely reads this as a blatant ploy to pander hard. Im not implying she wont vote for him because of it. Just that it has definitely irked her. And if Obama has pissed off someone like her, then theres really no telling how badly this could be playing out in flyover country.
Posted by: Jaydee at May 11, 2012 10:15 AM (5YMB7)
Posted by: The Poster Formerly Known as Mr. Barky at May 11, 2012 10:16 AM (qwK3S)
Mittens just needs to hammering away and SCOAMF's record. Never let up.
Posted by: mpfs at May 11, 2012 10:22 AM (iYbLN)
Posted by: Norwester at May 11, 2012 10:28 AM (Uai3p)
Hmmmmm....
It's hard for me to believe that Mitt Romney is going to break away from Obama in the polls this early on. But maybe. If numbers like this hold up for a few weeks, then I'll begin to believe them.
Then the media meme will be that Romney is peaking too early.
Hey, whatever makes the medicine go down a little easier.
I still won't be surprised if it's not until 4 - 10 weeks out from election day that Romney's poll numbers move consistently and therefore decisively into a solid 5 point or better lead.
By the way Barry, you know you're in trouble when the Beach Boys declare you an asshole. I'm pickin' up good vibrations.
Posted by: _Dave_ at May 11, 2012 10:29 AM (2amQY)
Nothing like having an honest 11% unemployment rate heading into the election.
Posted by: Greg Q at May 11, 2012 10:29 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Norwester at May 11, 2012 10:31 AM (Uai3p)
Posted by: Jaydee at May 11, 2012 10:31 AM (5YMB7)
Posted by: MJH at May 11, 2012 10:37 AM (kBLec)
Posted by: @ParisParamus at May 11, 2012 10:40 AM (0kpJ0)
Posted by: TexasJew at May 11, 2012 10:41 AM (z8HSj)
Ace,
There is another possible explanation as to how Obama's "evolution" on the gay marriage issue could have moved the numbers in the polls against him.
It's not just that Obama's 'new' pro-gay-marriage position could have galvanized social conservatives who had maintained reservations about Romney - as you noted.
It's also possible that there is a measurable portion of moderate Democrats out there who mindlessly default-lean toward voting for Obama but who also strongly believe that marriage has been and should only be between one man and one woman.
Posted by: _Dave_ at May 11, 2012 10:43 AM (2amQY)
http://tinyurl.com/4mxqwl
"Obama Is Crushing Romney In Karl Rove's New Electoral Map"http://tinyurl.com/d2ceqzh
and, for balance, from the same site: "Romney Is Absolutely Destroying Obama In A New Poll"http://tinyurl.com/8yejvk9
and for good measure: "SARAH PALIN TELLS HEDGE FUND CONFERENCE: 'Hello one percent! More power to ya!'" http://tinyurl.com/cpsq5as
Posted by: / at May 11, 2012 10:48 AM (oZfic)
As AllenG said, due to Gallup's 7-day averaging, the smoothing effect will be pronounced. We won't see much of the cyclical weekly variation (on the plus side), but any events which shift voters will necessarily lag in Gallup. The large stuff will show up in the numbers, with the time for it shift the numbers as the inverse of event size (large event = quicker/shorter time frame). We'll miss all of the quick news cycle dynamics since their duration is brief and event size small.
Gallup is better for the horse-race, Rasmussen will be better for judging movement. And for his likely voter screen!!
Posted by: D. Axelrod & Associates at May 11, 2012 10:52 AM (JdSQO)
Posted by: mallfly at May 11, 2012 10:54 AM (bJm7W)
Unless you think we're current underdogs in SC.
He shouldn't overplay it though.
Posted by: Uriah Heep at May 11, 2012 10:57 AM (JdSQO)
Posted by: mallfly at May 11, 2012 11:02 AM (bJm7W)
Home-boy Gore couldn't even carry Tennessee for the Democrats.
To be sure, Romney is a little blue-blood for the state, but Tennessee is as solid of for the GOP as Texas.
Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at May 11, 2012 11:06 AM (UCR1O)
Obama's gay marriage gambit is designed to open up the donations - fully 20% of his top fundraisers are openly gay and had begun slowing the money to pressure him - and to pump up enthusiasm among young voters, the only other demographic that gets excited about it, having been programmed by the government schools to have politically "correct" beliefs even if they can't read and write properly.
The plan was to drop the G-bomb in his acceptance speech in Charlotte, creating instant buzz and excitement and helping push economic issues out of the spotlight for awhile, which is Obama's only hope. They had to move it up because Obama's fundraising is well behind pace, trailing even Bush's in 2004, and so they staged the Biden "gaffe" - it was planned, the whole thing a set-up, including the "apology" - to get it out there.
Posted by: Adjoran at May 11, 2012 11:09 AM (VfmLu)
Gas today? $4.30/gal.
Posted by: PJ at May 11, 2012 11:23 AM (DQHjw)
For a long time now, Gallup's "moving average approval polls" have experienced wild swings almost daily. Of course, the purpose of a moving average poll is to prevent that. For instance, a 4 point one day swing in a moving average poll is a BIG deal and should be a rarity based upon some huge news event. However, on Gallup these have been commonplace.
Again, we all love Gallup now because he shows Romney ahead, but be careful - he may have Obama up 12 next week for no apparent reason.
Posted by: Bill Mitchell at May 11, 2012 12:01 PM (hlUJY)
Posted by: Ranginess at May 11, 2012 12:13 PM (1d6WV)
Posted by: steevy at May 11, 2012 12:43 PM (7W3wI)
Posted by: that guy that doesn't read all the comments at May 11, 2012 12:48 PM (NG097)
Posted by: TooCon at May 12, 2012 05:52 AM (YcTIW)
Posted by: jjshaka at May 12, 2012 09:38 AM (RRh1P)
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Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at May 11, 2012 09:15 AM (DGIjM)