May 08, 2012
— Ace Instapundit talks about a certain kind of psychological trick the mind plays on you.
If you know anything about a subject matter, when you read the media's reportage of that subject matter, you will constantly see errors, childish oversimplifications, and sheer hackery. You will realize the media simply doesn't know what the hell it's talking about, at least as regards the subject matter you know a lot about.
But then you will turn the page and read the media writing about other subject matters, and kinda-sorta completely forget that you already know they don't know what the hell they're talking about.
There's a similar psychological thing that happens in politics.
How many people do you know that are actually good at their jobs? Mentally divide everyone you know into "outright incompetent," "semi-competent," "competent but limited and just hanging on," "actually completely competent" and "very competent."
What percentage of the people you work with (or hear about from others) are in the last two categories? 40%? 50%, if you're lucky?
And yet when a mid-level RNC diversity hack says something like this:
RNC National Hispanic Outreach Director on Romney just now: "He's still deciding what his position on immigration is."
...most of us spring to the notion This guy must know his onions; he must know Romney's mind intimately; he is probably in frequent communication with Romney and well-informed about what he's saying; he's also probably a highly-disciplined man, who speaks only when he knows the confirmed truth of the matter, and does not just sort of talk just to hear himself talk.
Why would we assume that? Of what percentage of the working population, in your experience, would those things be true of?
Again: What, 40%? Maybe 50% if you're in a very well-run organization?
This guy has probably spoken to Romney three times in the past year, never alone, and never for any lengthy period of time. He is not a close adviser. He's a mid-level PR guy in an affiliated organization (the RNC).
Let's not assume he's doing anything except what he thinks his job is supposed to be, "outreach" to Hispanics, and let's not assume he's doing it competently.
If half or more of the people you work with aren't very good at their jobs, it makes no sense to assume that someone in the oddball, sketchy job of political flacking is good at his.
Maybe he is.
But then again, maybe he was doing what most people do: Running their mouths without any idea what they're talking about.
Posted by: Ace at
08:48 AM
| Comments (99)
Post contains 442 words, total size 3 kb.
Posted by: joncelli, too stressed by half at May 08, 2012 08:50 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Soothsayer Warren at May 08, 2012 08:51 AM (jUytm)
Posted by: ace at May 08, 2012 08:51 AM (nj1bB)
Of course, you could make the same comments about Romney regarding competence.
Posted by: Steve D at May 08, 2012 08:52 AM (p9ikY)
If I eat at Taco Bell, can I consider myself 1/32 hispanic?
Posted by: Soothsayer Warren at May 08, 2012 12:51 PM (jUytm)
At least until it wends its way through your system.
Posted by: joncelli, too stressed by half at May 08, 2012 08:52 AM (RD7QR)
Well I'm not like other people. I can handle things. I'm smart. I can do things. Not like everybody says.
Posted by: Fredo Biden at May 08, 2012 08:53 AM (eHIJJ)
Posted by: wheatie at May 08, 2012 08:53 AM (g4NO6)
That's a Michael Crichton thing. He dubbed it the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect.
Posted by: Andy at May 08, 2012 08:53 AM (5Rurq)
Posted by: NC Ref at May 08, 2012 08:54 AM (/izg2)
Posted by: Marco Rubio at May 08, 2012 08:55 AM (eHIJJ)
Is that so bad?
Posted by: Darth Chipmunk at May 08, 2012 08:55 AM (niW49)
Isn't that like 90% of politics?
Posted by: eleven at May 08, 2012 08:56 AM (KXm42)
It's not that this one idiot is some mid-level flunky, it's that some people with actual responsibility picked her.
Posted by: DrewM. at May 08, 2012 08:57 AM (sPao2)
Posted by: ... at May 08, 2012 08:58 AM (HOOye)
I would rather see Romney lay low for a bit, formulate an "all out" strategy and come out with all guns blazing in August hitting Obama from every conceivable angle. How does saddling students with more debt help them? How does the current jobs situation help women and families? How does benefits programs going broke help those in need? Last estimate I heard was that SSDI (social security disability) has about 5 years left and will go broke in 2017. How is that helping anyone? With fewer people working, there are fewer people to tax.
Jobs helps everyone, black, hispanics, men, women, everyone. Heck, it even helps black hispanic native-american lesbian single mothers with HIV.
Posted by: crosspatch at May 08, 2012 08:58 AM (ZbLJZ)
Posted by: Soothsayer at May 08, 2012 08:59 AM (jUytm)
Posted by: tasker at May 08, 2012 08:59 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: toby928© at May 08, 2012 08:59 AM (NG097)
How about the guy running the blogger outreach program? Any thoughts on if he/she knows what the hell they are doing?
Posted by: jwest at May 08, 2012 09:00 AM (ZDsRL)
Posted by: X at May 08, 2012 09:00 AM (KHo8t)
"Mitt Romney opposes amnesty because he believes that it acts as a magnet encouraging illegal immigration. The last amnesty law passed in 1986 granted legal status to 2.7 million illegal immigrants. In the decades since, the illegal immigrant population has quadrupled. Mitt believes that an amnesty should not be permitted to happen again. Illegal immigrants who apply for legal status should not be given any advantage over those who are following the law and waiting their turn. Mitt absolutely opposes any policy that would allow illegal immigrants to “cut in line."
Posted by: joncelli, too stressed by half at May 08, 2012 09:00 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: toby928© at May 08, 2012 09:01 AM (NG097)
Let's make an easy-peasy prediction, shall we? If you're an immigration hardliner, you'll be disappointed. If you're an open borders advocate who wants blanket amnesty, you'll be disappointed.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at May 08, 2012 09:01 AM (SY2Kh)
Then again, maybe not. Awful lot of windage for something this ambiguous.
Posted by: Additional Blond Agent (1/16 Potawatomi) at May 08, 2012 09:01 AM (PMGbu)
Posted by: .RNC National Hispanic Outreach Director at May 08, 2012 09:01 AM (HOOye)
Posted by: Karl Rove at May 08, 2012 09:01 AM (eHIJJ)
Posted by: Buzzsaw at May 08, 2012 09:02 AM (tf9Ne)
Posted by: ace at May 08, 2012 12:51 PM (nj1bB)
Not based on this, just been nagging at me for a long time. Why should it take him so long to decide what his thoughts on this issue are. Specific policies as how to handle the problem as President, yeah that takes time to prepare. But isn't this something he should have been prepared for?
RNC National Hispanic Outreach Director on Romney just now: "He's still deciding what his position on immigration is."
So it's apparently going to change from his position in 2008? Why?
Posted by: NC Ref at May 08, 2012 09:02 AM (/izg2)
The problem isn't the flunky, it's Mitt's unreliability. It just fits the narrative to well.
The real challenge for Mitt will be when Rubio unveils his DREAM Act in the next few weeks.
Then the fun begins.
Thanks Marco!
Posted by: DrewM. at May 08, 2012 09:02 AM (sPao2)
Most people don't know how to say, "I don't know" so they wing it and babble like idiots.
They way you say "I don't know" is "Governor Romney looks forward to outlining his immigration policy in great detail during this campaign."
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at May 08, 2012 09:03 AM (X9FKq)
In the end it doesn't matter anyway. No Republican will ever get enough votes for it out of his own party and joining the Democrats to do it means no sole credit. No Republican will even try this until his 2nd term and even then he will fail the same as Dubya did.
Would a President Romney sign a bill granting amnesty for "securing the border"? You bet your sweet ass he will. Luckily he'll never get the chance.
Posted by: Rocks at May 08, 2012 09:03 AM (Q1lie)
Then the fun begins.
Thanks Marco!
Posted by: DrewM. at May 08, 2012 01:02 PM (sPao2)
Marco isn't veep. Still time for Romney to advance a strong position on immigration.
Posted by: joncelli, too stressed by half at May 08, 2012 09:03 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: tasker at May 08, 2012 09:04 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: Chico Escuela at May 08, 2012 09:05 AM (136wp)
Posted by: joncelli, too stressed by half at May 08, 2012 01:03 PM (RD7QR)
Romney is trial-ballooning selections.
This one has a couple of rips in the silk.
Posted by: jwb7605 at May 08, 2012 09:05 AM (Qxe/p)
Posted by: ace at May 08, 2012 09:06 AM (nj1bB)
EoJ,
The problem is..she's supposed to know. It's all on Romney's website. I don't blame him for this. The problem is there are a lot of people who don't believe what Mitt says or puts on his website because....well, we've been down that road.
The problem is the perception that she knows something, that what Mitt's been saying was bait for the boobs (or bigots) and his "real" policy will come out soon.
That maybe unfair to him but it's reality.
Posted by: DrewM. at May 08, 2012 09:06 AM (sPao2)
Posted by: The Robot Devil at May 08, 2012 09:07 AM (136wp)
Posted by: ace at May 08, 2012 09:07 AM (nj1bB)
Posted by: nevergiveup at May 08, 2012 09:07 AM (i6RpT)
They want the Big Biz bucks, sweetheart.
Posted by: jeanne...meh at May 08, 2012 09:08 AM (GdalM)
Posted by: Whores, Hermaphrodites, and Lickspittles at May 08, 2012 09:09 AM (cYMja)
Posted by: toby928© at May 08, 2012 09:09 AM (NG097)
But dude, HE HAS LAID OUT HIS POLICY. It's not as if he's a blank slate on this. Check his website -- the position is *right there*. Or alternately, you could have listened to any one of the approximately 4,000,000 debates during the primary seasons. Remember Mitt getting mocked for the idea of "self-deportation" (which, of course, turns out to have been exactly right), or his back-and-forth with Gingrich about 'community boards' and Romney's insistence on E-Verify? C'mon, you're doing exactly what Ace said: you're erasing Romney's countless specific policy positions on this stuff in order to fortify a pre-set narrative in your head of him "lacking a core." You even admit it when you say it's "been nagging at you" for a long time...which means that because you're viewing him constantly through this lens, all the information which doesn't fit the narrative is simply shorn away as if it never happened.
Posted by: Jeff B. at May 08, 2012 09:09 AM (xAJql)
Posted by: Temper Tantrum at May 08, 2012 09:10 AM (AWmfW)
Posted by: NotCoach at May 08, 2012 09:10 AM (XykUh)
I have a similar theory's, that people think their own company/employer is incompetent, chaotic, fatally dysfunctional, but the competition all have their shit together. Or some other employer won't seem just as dysfunctional once you are working there awhile.
Posted by: jeanne...meh at May 08, 2012 09:11 AM (GdalM)
Posted by: nevergiveup at May 08, 2012 09:11 AM (i6RpT)
about tell you that the fondue restrant is a good investmant or guy
enzyte pill company total garbige rip off most people got to
pretty care full becase of a lot of idiots trying to ripping off all the time
#JusticeForTurlington
Posted by: Jose Canseco's Gristle Encased Head at May 08, 2012 09:12 AM (+lsX1)
Thanks Marco!
Posted by: DrewM. at May 08, 2012 01:02 PM (sPao2)
-----------
Rubio has danced all around the 'heartlessness' of denying special benefits for the children of illegals. ....It's like he was in a cave somewhere, and didn't notice how toxic this was when Perry tried to explain an even milder version of it.
I don't even want to hear about Rubio anymore as a potential VP pick.
Posted by: wheatie at May 08, 2012 09:13 AM (g4NO6)
So that's a good way to frame the amnesty debate.
PS I HATE standing in line, and will kick your ass if you cut into my line.
Posted by: GnuBreed at May 08, 2012 09:13 AM (ccXZP)
Posted by: Matt from CO at May 08, 2012 09:13 AM (lP1Nw)
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at May 08, 2012 09:14 AM (CP+yl)
Posted by: jewishodysseus at May 08, 2012 09:16 AM (/T2In)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 08, 2012 09:18 AM (8y9MW)
Yes I know, but hearing someone from the RNC say that it may be changing kinda freaked me out. Like ace said, my fault for assuming competence.
Posted by: NC Ref at May 08, 2012 09:18 AM (/izg2)
Posted by: wheatie at May 08, 2012 09:19 AM (g4NO6)
The problem is the perception that she knows something, that what Mitt's been saying was bait for the boobs (or bigots) and his "real" policy will come out soon.<<<
Precisely. That's why deferring clarification on that question was the smart play. She made the dumb play, giving the Dems a soundbite.
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at May 08, 2012 09:21 AM (X9FKq)
Just that simple statement, (translates to) "I have no idea who you're talking about or what they said. It's safe to assume they're not speaking for me. Even if they happened to get my stance right, which seems not to be the case, it would be because of coincidence, not because they're speaking for me," would completely change the tone.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 08, 2012 09:22 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: nevergiveup at May 08, 2012 09:22 AM (i6RpT)
Meh. I'm anti-amnesty, but the Rubio plan as described isn't something I'm getting too worked up about.
The numbers affected would be small, and it's not a completely illegitimate point that those brought over illegally as young kids by their parents are in a sense victims- they had no say in the matter and likely have little or no ties to their country of origin after growing up here.
Note that his plan wouldn't give them automatic citizenship, just a work visa. I'd have to see the details before making judgement though.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at May 08, 2012 09:23 AM (SY2Kh)
I need a job, National Fat beige guy who doesn't give reacharounds director sounds good.
Posted by: DaveA at May 08, 2012 09:25 AM (ZYrSB)
Posted by: Optimizer at May 08, 2012 09:26 AM (As94z)
Posted by: Avi at May 08, 2012 09:26 AM (Gx3Fe)
That would endear many of us to Romney, if true.
Posted by: jwb7605 at May 08, 2012 09:27 AM (Qxe/p)
Posted by: Jaynie59 at May 08, 2012 09:28 AM (4zKCA)
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at May 08, 2012 09:28 AM (CP+yl)
Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at May 08, 2012 09:28 AM (DRG6e)
Posted by: toby928© at May 08, 2012 09:28 AM (NG097)
Posted by: toby928© at May 08, 2012 09:29 AM (NG097)
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at May 08, 2012 09:33 AM (CP+yl)
Posted by: Jean at May 08, 2012 09:38 AM (WkuV6)
Posted by: Hollowpoint at May 08, 2012 01:23 PM (SY2Kh)
--------
He [Rubio] gave some specific details on FoxNewsSunday, a couple of days ago. ....But he also contradicted himself....saying that his plan was to simply "use the existing Laws", but then he went on to talk about the 'work visa' for children of illegals.
Work Visa = Green Card. ....So, the children of illegals would essentially get to 'break in line' ahead of all the other people who are trying to do it legally.
Rubio kept saying that he didn't want to create incentives for people to come here illegally. ....But then, he went on to talk about the things he was in favor of doing.....which would actually be incentives.
Posted by: wheatie at May 08, 2012 09:39 AM (g4NO6)
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at May 08, 2012 09:40 AM (CP+yl)
Posted by: NotCoach at May 08, 2012 09:40 AM (XykUh)
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at May 08, 2012 09:41 AM (CP+yl)
What percentage of the people you work with (or hear about from others) are in the last two categories? 40%? 50%, if you're lucky?
Gee, that's how I see the universe of voters; 50% competent at best, 40% at worst. Makes me fear for the future--bring on the 52% Obama voters again.
Posted by: Hrothgar at May 08, 2012 09:46 AM (i3+c5)
Yeah, yeah- I know all the arguments and slogans.
First priority needs to be securing the border and making it difficult for them to live and work here so they don't have an incentive to come illegally in the first place.
However, the reality is that we paid for their education and other services and they had no choice in the matter. There's room in the immigration debate for a little mercy for those who are victims of the actions of their parents.
I doubt Rubio wants to offer blanket amnesty for any kid that managed to get dragged across the border. Again, the numbers would be pretty low- as I understand it, only those living long term in the US after being brought here as kids would be affected.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at May 08, 2012 09:48 AM (SY2Kh)
Walkback -- or in this case tweetback:
Bettina Inclan †@BettinaInclan
I misspoke, Romney's position on immigration is clear http://mi.tt/KiMi3x
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at May 08, 2012 09:59 AM (kdS6q)
How can Romney support Rubio's DREAM Act after running on his veto of a MA DREAM Act and killing Perry with it?
Posted by: DrewM. at May 08, 2012 10:00 AM (sPao2)
Posted by: NotCoach at May 08, 2012 10:02 AM (XykUh)
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at May 08, 2012 01:28 PM (CP+yl)
But the FIRST thing we need to do, is get rid of Dual Citizenship.
For the vast majority of the history of the Republic, Dual Citizenship was not legal... you were an American, or somthing else... we need to go back to that.
Posted by: Romeo13 at May 08, 2012 10:14 AM (lZBBB)
If the RNC were a source of real political power you would have really politically powerful people fighting to chair it and work there. Same with the DNC.
Now look at the people who end up chairing the RNC and the DNC, and my reaction is "Who?" If the name of the chair causes me, who is interested in politics, to say "Who?" then is the staff going to be any better?
Example: If there was real power in the DNC who would be chair? Nancy Pelosi or Debbie What'sHerName-Schultz?
Posted by: Mikey NTH at May 08, 2012 10:26 AM (hLRSq)
Posted by: Keating Willcox at May 08, 2012 11:45 AM (zsyG/)
Posted by: Y-not at May 08, 2012 01:36 PM (5H6zj)
Posted by: steevy at May 08, 2012 02:30 PM (7W3wI)
Or maybe, Romney has claimed to be severely conservative on border enforcement with the voters while telling high money campaign donors:
"Romney said the GOP must offer its own policies to woo Hispanics, including a "Republican DREAM Act," referring to the legislative proposal favored by Democrats that would offer illegal immigrants a limited path to citizenship, to give Hispanic voters a real choice between parties."
Romney is playing both sides. At least he's not going to come in my mouth.
Posted by: Sad Dad at May 08, 2012 06:44 PM (MNWe/)
God, the formatting here hurts my eyes. Take two:
Or maybe, Romney has claimed to be severely conservative on border enforcement with the voters while telling high money campaign donors:
"Romney said the GOP must offer its own policies to woo Hispanics, including a "Republican DREAM Act," referring to the legislative proposal favored by Democrats that would offer illegal immigrants a limited path to citizenship, to give Hispanic voters a real choice between parties."
Romney is playing both sides. At least he's not going to come in my mouth.
Posted by: Sad Dad at May 08, 2012 06:45 PM (MNWe/)
Posted by: Stolen Prey epub at May 10, 2012 06:08 PM (uNx8J)
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Posted by: NC Ref at May 08, 2012 08:50 AM (/izg2)