October 26, 2012
— Ace And not a moment too soon.
A new CNN poll has Ohio Obama 50, Romney 46. With a not-at-all objectionable split (small D skew).
But one thing about that poll: It has Obama leading with Independent voters. @baseballcrank points out this is an outlier:
The reason Ohio is giving me the shakes is that I haven't seen a single poll with Romney ahead there. I see some times, and more Obama leads.
It is true that if someone wins the national popular vote by 1% or 1.5% or more, the odds of him losing the electoral college are very small.
The trouble is, the current RCP average has Romney leading by 0.9%. At that level of difference, the race really would come down to how independently-acting swing states voted. And on that count, we're behind.
Or so the polls say.
And it's driving me crazy. Only three friends are keeping me sane at this point: A chair, a rope, & a rafter.
But Baseball Crank talks me back off the chair some with this analysis.
He argues -- with charts and numbers and all sorts of crazy math -- that there is a very strong correlation between the independent vote and the the total vote received by a candidate.
Thus pushing back against this idea that Obama can afford a loss in independents but make up for it with Democratic turnout.
The problem for Obama, as Josh Jordan has pointed out here (with regard to the national polls) and here (with regard to the Ohio polls) and the Romney campaign addressed in a memo on Ohio on Thursday, is that whatever the toplines say, Obama is losing independents and losing them by a significant amount. JordanÂ’s analysis of the polls at the time showed Obama down, on average, 8.3 points with independents nationally and 8.7 points with independents in Ohio. If that holds (more on which below), and unless Obama can sustain the kind of significant edge in loyal partisan votes he had in 2008, heÂ’ll end up behind....
Everything in the latest polls suggests doom for Obama with independents. This morningÂ’s Washington Post poll has him down 20 with independents, 58-38. The Rasmussen national tracker has him down 17 today. TodayÂ’s IBD/TIPP poll has him down 10, 48-38. SurveyUSA/Monmouth has him trailing by 19, 52-33. The outlier, SEIU/DailyKos pollster PPP, had Romney up 2 yesterday with independents, 47-45, after the PPP tracker showed him up 10, 51-41, three days earlier. In this morningÂ’s swing state poll, Rasmussen shows Romney leading Obama by 11 with independents.
Well, it's a good argument.
I'd feel better if I didn't even need an argument, though, you know?
What I'd like is either an RCP average of Romney +4-5%, nationally, or a few polls with Romney ahead in Ohio.
Or: Wisconsin.
Which seems a better state for us.
Posted by: Ace at
12:55 PM
| Comments (342)
Post contains 487 words, total size 3 kb.
Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 26, 2012 12:57 PM (cgxNI)
Posted by: Sheldon Cooper at October 26, 2012 12:57 PM (mcWHD)
Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 26, 2012 12:57 PM (cgxNI)
Look at the bright side ace, if SCOAMF wins - blog gold.
What are we gonna bitch about if he loses? Lifesmanship? Of course the country would be much worse off, but traffic is traffic.
Posted by: JollyRoger at October 26, 2012 12:58 PM (t06LC)
Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 26, 2012 12:58 PM (cgxNI)
And I pray we can overcome that.
Posted by: Kensington at October 26, 2012 12:59 PM (znT2j)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 12:59 PM (eMjRH)
Posted by: alexthegreg at October 26, 2012 12:59 PM (VtjlW)
Posted by: JollyRoger at October 26, 2012 12:59 PM (t06LC)
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 01:00 PM (dX4hn)
Neil Cavuto just said:
"I could call the president a big fat Liar...but that would be a lie. The president is not fat."
Heh.
Posted by: wheatie at October 26, 2012 01:00 PM (ipkPX)
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 26, 2012 01:00 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: marcus at October 26, 2012 01:00 PM (NZyfJ)
Posted by: Tami at October 26, 2012 01:01 PM (X6akg)
http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/
CNN has learned the trick. The give us a reasonable party split but slip in a fake lead with indies. Romney is winning indies by 15 to 30 point EVERYWHERE. There is no way Obama wins them in OH.
The REASON OH polling is close is that you get a choice with polls. Either a wild Dem oversample and Romney killing with indies or a fair sample and Obama winning indies. The truth is the OH electorate will be R +3 AND he is killing with indies.
Do not concern yourself. Romney has this in a walk.
Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 26, 2012 01:01 PM (hlUJY)
Posted by: Highsmith at October 26, 2012 01:01 PM (uwaMU)
Posted by: Beagle at October 26, 2012 01:01 PM (sOtz/)
BREAKING
BREAKING
BREAKING
HARRY REID INOLVED IN CAR ACCIDENT
TAKEN TO HOSPITAL
NO WORD ON THE CONDITION OF
THE THREE YOUNG BOYS IN HIS TRUNK
Posted by: El Presidente Barack Hugo Chavez Obama the Light Bringer and giver of Unicorn Farts & Phones at October 26, 2012 01:02 PM (ovpNn)
Posted by: bobs country buffet at October 26, 2012 01:02 PM (V2lin)
Posted by: Skandia Recluse at October 26, 2012 01:02 PM (ZKLtz)
Posted by: What do you do all day if you don't watch tv, anne? at October 26, 2012 01:02 PM (oZfic)
Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 26, 2012 01:02 PM (ovpNn)
Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 26, 2012 04:58 PM (cgxNI)
What does ORCA stand for?
Posted by: wheatie at October 26, 2012 01:02 PM (ipkPX)
What I'd like is either an RCP average of Romney +4-5%, nationally, or a few polls with Romney ahead in Ohio.
--------
Well I'd like Romney to be ahead in every state by 12 points, but what does that have to do with anything?
Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 01:03 PM (pnHKr)
Posted by: Highsmith at October 26, 2012 01:03 PM (uwaMU)
Posted by: giftogab at October 26, 2012 01:03 PM (A+q3l)
Posted by: 11 days at October 26, 2012 01:03 PM (LpQbZ)
Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 01:03 PM (LCRYB)
Posted by: TLGM at October 26, 2012 01:04 PM (appbn)
We will have to suffer 11 more days of angst and worry until Romney wins Ohio and the nation by 5%.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 01:05 PM (dX4hn)
Posted by: Highsmith at October 26, 2012 01:05 PM (uwaMU)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2012 01:05 PM (TMB3S)
My bet is Rasmussen will go +5 Romney nationally tomorrow and Gallup may go +6. Rasmussen used a Dem +6 (WTF?) sample to have Romney up just 3 today. We will be looking at D +0 to R +3 samples from serious pollsters across the board by election day.
Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 26, 2012 01:05 PM (hlUJY)
Somebody forgot to tell him that a car can be prone to fishtailing if the trunk is too heavily laden with pre-signed ballots.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 26, 2012 01:06 PM (SY2Kh)
They can show Romney winning the popular vote, just as long as he stands a chance in Ohio and nobody will ever question their accuracy because the national poll will be fine.
Look for about half of the pollsters to go to a realistic D/R/I split starting at the beginning of the week. All of a sudden, Ohio will "break" for Romney. Others will wait until the end of the week, hoping to pin the shift on the (inevitably) bad Nov. 2 employment numbers.
Did you know that, for the national poll, Ras suddenly changed to a D+6 model? Why? My guess is that he didn't want to stick his neck out. He'll probably adjust that back to his (still too high) D+3 by Monday but with a gradual change.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2012 01:06 PM (T0NGe)
Posted by: 11 days at October 26, 2012 01:06 PM (LpQbZ)
Posted by: Max Power at October 26, 2012 01:06 PM (q177U)
Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 01:06 PM (LCRYB)
Posted by: Witchfinder at October 26, 2012 01:06 PM (pLTLS)
out-LIAR
Posted by: Larry from Laramie at October 26, 2012 01:06 PM (Dll6b)
The RCP average? That's the equivalent of of mixing Fillet Mignon and dog sh*t and claiming it tastes better thanks to the wider spread of flavor.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 01:07 PM (eMjRH)
I'm not sure why the Romney campaign decided to name their GOTV effort as Project ORCA but they did.
Click on the right hand link on the top of Ace's homepage and help.
Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 26, 2012 01:07 PM (cgxNI)
If you average shit you get shit.
The RCP Average has a history of accuracy in their FINAL NUMBERS, not their numbers 2 weeks out. In 2008 PEW had Obama up 14 a week out and up only 6 day before.
RCP Average right now is useless.
Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 26, 2012 01:07 PM (hlUJY)
Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 01:08 PM (LCRYB)
Heh.
Try not to trip over the Passionfruit Valu-Rite.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at October 26, 2012 01:08 PM (eHIJJ)
Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 01:08 PM (LCRYB)
If you believe the 3%-9% of the population who will talk to pollsters are similar to the 91%-97% who won't, then, well, God bless ya.
Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 26, 2012 01:08 PM (feFL6)
Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 26, 2012 01:09 PM (hlUJY)
Posted by: alec another guy who doesnt like greg at October 26, 2012 01:09 PM (usWYv)
Posted by: Redman Bluestate at October 26, 2012 01:09 PM (sRIFP)
Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 26, 2012 01:09 PM (cgxNI)
Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 01:10 PM (LCRYB)
so Romney's people this time found the predator above the food chain for Obama fag-shark. Mind games...
Posted by: Larry from Laramie at October 26, 2012 01:10 PM (Dll6b)
Posted by: wooga at October 26, 2012 01:10 PM (vjyZP)
I'd like the cold hard truth BTW. Well maybe not cold and hard, you could heat it up just a bit and soften it with a mallet. But lukewarm and hard to chew is OK. I'd rather know and be anxious about it rather than saying "WTH! we had this in the bag!" on election night.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 01:10 PM (eMjRH)
I don't think it's smart to just assume that because the national numbers look good, everything is going to fall in line. Campaigns do matter, and as an example, if Romney for whatever crazy reason decided to spend $30 million on his home state of Massachusetts where he was Governor, he could probably get within the margin of error and have numbers close to Scott Brown, even though the state usually goes comfortably Democrat. If a Republican can win Massachusetts with enough focus, it's not exactly a crazy notion that a Democrat could win Ohio despite the popular vote going for the other guy by a few points.
At some point, money is just not going to matter anymore in ohio. but it is going to matter in a state like Wisconsin that has been largely ignored this Presidential cycle.
Posted by: McAdams at October 26, 2012 01:10 PM (2FqGG)
Posted by: Tami at October 26, 2012 01:11 PM (X6akg)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2012 01:11 PM (TMB3S)
Posted by: 11 days at October 26, 2012 01:11 PM (LpQbZ)
Widespread contempt for Barry in Ohio. People are sick of him. Benghazi is only adding to their disgust. R/R will roll over Soetoro.
Posted by: Ohio Native at October 26, 2012 01:11 PM (WolTZ)
Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 26, 2012 01:12 PM (ovpNn)
Posted by: HenryVlosesAgincourt at October 26, 2012 01:12 PM (jn5Ou)
That said, the reason the polls are so close (IMHO) is because there are so many people now dependent on government support and they are afraid of losing it.
This election is our LAST chance to turn things around. If we lose, America will be gone forever.
Posted by: Not and Artist at October 26, 2012 01:13 PM (uRumV)
This state went for Bush in 2004. Do you *really* think that all the independents there are going to swing to Obama in 2012 after his massive losses among them since 2009, over inoffensive and competent Romney? That a double-digit lead among Independents everywhere else in the country just magically and coincidentally not just vanishes, but reverses in Ohio, the focus of Democratic efforts?
Come on.
Posted by: dawnfire at October 26, 2012 01:13 PM (eEeH7)
One interesting point of note, regardless of D/R/I split...
...read that 40% of this total sample self-reported as unemployed.
THAT is an amazing stat, and would surely skew the numbers in some fashion.
Posted by: Steve at October 26, 2012 01:13 PM (+Qawf)
Posted by: 11 days at October 26, 2012 05:11 PM (LpQbZ)
Nah...Ace has nicer tits.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 26, 2012 01:14 PM (2b4yb)
O Early Votes: 696,790
O Elect Votes: 2,020,822
O Total Votes: 2,717,612 (49.3%)
R Early Votes: 448,780
R Elect Votes: 2,342,316
R Total Votes: 2,791,096 (50.7%)
Posted by: Colonel Pooteh at October 26, 2012 01:14 PM (oiJfU)
That's fine.
As a news blog, though, I cannot simply put up the same Unchanging Conclusion Post -- ROMNEY WILL WIN OHIO, BANK ON IT!!! -- every single day.
This is just silly. Some of you, LITERALLY, want the news embargoed. You want the full cocoon, not the three-quarters cocoon a partisan advocacy blog already is.
I will continue to occasionally report actual new information, if you don't mind."
The only problem Ace is that you are refusing to report other facts, like 7 of the last 9 Ohio polls over sampled Democrats. Ranging from D+6 to D+11. Your news is one direction only. It's always "OMG, why is Ohio such a little bitch".
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 01:14 PM (dX4hn)
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 26, 2012 01:14 PM (TLc8G)
You ain't gonna see Romney ahead if we can help it. We'll weight those suckas D+101 if we have to.
Posted by: MFM at October 26, 2012 01:14 PM (ggRof)
Posted by: AussieMarcus at October 26, 2012 01:14 PM (RstsB)
Posted by: TLGM at October 26, 2012 01:14 PM (appbn)
The RCP average? That's the equivalent of of mixing Fillet Mignon and dog sh*t and claiming it tastes better thanks to the wider spread of flavor.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 05:07 PM (eMjRH)
Yeah, I kinda agree with that. I think a better average would be to take the top 3-4 most reputable polls and average them. I mean, who the fuck is JZAnalytics?
Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2012 01:14 PM (UypUQ)
Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 01:14 PM (LCRYB)
Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 26, 2012 01:15 PM (9+ccr)
Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 01:15 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 26, 2012 01:15 PM (n5+zr)
Posted by: CNN at October 26, 2012 01:15 PM (eHIJJ)
I think R+3 is wishful thinking but D+2 nationally (just add D+2 to whatever the 2012 turnout was in a given state) is perfectly rational and on the "conservative" side. If you have that kind of breakdown on all of the polls, Romney wins in a walk and almost all the Senate races are over.
And that's why most pollsters don't want to have anything to do with such numbers.
Also, I think people really overestimate the "reputation" bit. Do you think that any of these polling companies won't get hired in 2 years?
Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2012 01:15 PM (T0NGe)
Posted by: Max Power at October 26, 2012 01:15 PM (q177U)
Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2012 01:15 PM (I2LwF)
Posted by: Sheldon Cooper at October 26, 2012 04:57 PM (mcWHD)
Nothing. Why do you ask?
Posted by: California at October 26, 2012 01:16 PM (wAQA5)
Posted by: tofer732 at October 26, 2012 01:16 PM (2zM0P)
Posted by: USS Diversity at October 26, 2012 01:16 PM (0CiTm)
Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 01:16 PM (LCRYB)
Oh, thank gawd. At first I thought it was Amy Reid.
Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 26, 2012 01:17 PM (feFL6)
Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at October 26, 2012 01:18 PM (UA8DK)
For Ohio, the problem appears to be bad sampling compounded by an outlier poll (CNN).
Posted by: TH at October 26, 2012 01:18 PM (AprKJ)
Look for the Ohio polls to show Mitt tied on Monday through Thursday of next week. Next Friday will show him opening up a 1 point lead there. It will be like what happened in Virginia, NC, NH, CO, and the other "swing states". When Mitt decides to make the sale, the people buy.
Posted by: MrCaniac at October 26, 2012 01:18 PM (Zd/NW)
Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2012 01:18 PM (UypUQ)
Me? I'm spending the day tomorrow in Newport News, VA, knocking on doors and making phone calls (and that's a bitch of a commute for a guy who lives in the MD suburbs). I highly recommend that everyone else go and do the same thing.
But I will say this: Romney's internals right now? I have it on reasonably good authority that they are actually far better in states like OH, VA, FL, and certain other mystery states that I shall not mention than everyone out here realizes. There is a bit of "well this can't QUITE be correct, can it?" attitude among people, but the numbers are returning consistently and in the same direction.
Let me put it this way: IA, NH, WI: toss a coin, these could go either way. OH? Mitt will win, and the call will be made on election night, not after five recounts or any sort of thing like that. It most certainly didn't look that way as recently as a month ago. But it does now. My final call? 52-48 Romney over Obama.
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.
Posted by: Jeff B. at October 26, 2012 01:18 PM (/COnL)
Every important election here in the last two years has gone for the conservatives. I have hope. When push comes to shove, we've learned to shove back.
--------
????You mean except the one where we decided to shit all over Kasich's union reform bill?
Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 01:18 PM (pnHKr)
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 26, 2012 01:19 PM (TLc8G)
If the entire state of Ohio got sucked up by an alien spaceship tomorrow, would that be a bad thing? Me no thinky so. It beats the hell out of the rest of us having to sit around waiting to see if the ratio of intelligent life forms to half-brained idiots in that state is in our favor on November 6th.
Posted by: Natasha at October 26, 2012 01:19 PM (jU5uf)
What's 2.4%...I remember a couple million votes, and the race over by midnight. I guess it wasn't as easy as I thought.
Posted by: USS Diversity at October 26, 2012 01:19 PM (0CiTm)
Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 26, 2012 01:19 PM (n5+zr)
Posted by: Jean at October 26, 2012 01:19 PM (LnQr8)
I think that many of us are losing sight of the fact that Ohio does not drive the country....the country drives Ohio.
Look at the national data, in which Romney is trending better and better in almost every state, and then try to rationalize why Ohio would be going in the opposite direction.
You can't.
I don't want to hear Pollyanna-ish blather like the Democrats are spouting, but let's be proud of our accomplishments vis-a-vis GOTV, and changing the narrative.
And, last thing. Romney wants to win. He really, really wants to win, and he is not fucking around (unlike McCain). And if you and I had gotten what we wanted (Perry), I'm not sure that we would be in this position this close to the election. Romney has done a fine job, and is probably going to be our next president.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 26, 2012 01:20 PM (2b4yb)
President Romney"
==========
President RommmmmmmNOOOOOOOO!!1!!
Noooooooooooo!!!1!!!!
Aieeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!1!!!1
bugs bugs zzzzzzpltat
Posted by: Andrew Sullivan at October 26, 2012 01:20 PM (znT2j)
Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 26, 2012 01:20 PM (1Jaio)
Posted by: WisRich at October 26, 2012 01:20 PM (hdpay)
---
Wait, what? Women in pron have names?
Since when?
Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 26, 2012 01:20 PM (aHR5E)
Zogby.
Or you could just look at my site, since do all that work for you.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 01:20 PM (dX4hn)
Link in my sig
I'll say a prayer.
For the other cars.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 26, 2012 01:20 PM (SY2Kh)
Better California went. That's 50+ EC votes.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 01:21 PM (eMjRH)
As Iowahawk says everyday... These polls are BS.
Start practicing saying it...
President Romney
President Romney
President Romney
President Romney
Posted by: eleven at October 26, 2012 01:21 PM (fsLdt)
Try typing Barack Obama with your eyes closed.
Seriously – try it.
These were my first tries-
baeacj Ibana
Baeack Ivana
barack inava
Then I got the hang of it -
Frickin Knobnibbler
NeÂ’er do well
Punk Faggot
Posted by: Funneh from IOTW at October 26, 2012 01:21 PM (cTjRR)
"And it's driving me crazy. Only three friends are keeping me sane at this point: A chair, a rope, & a rafter.
But Baseball Crank talks me back off the chair some with this analysis."
Cut. Jib. Newsletter?
Posted by: Michel Hutchence at October 26, 2012 01:21 PM (Zd/NW)
Posted by: Kensington at October 26, 2012 01:21 PM (znT2j)
"And it's driving me crazy. Only three friends are keeping me sane at this point: A chair, a rope, & a rafter.
But Baseball Crank talks me back off the chair some with this analysis."
How do I subscribe to your "premium service"?
Posted by: David Carradine at October 26, 2012 01:22 PM (Zd/NW)
Posted by: USS Diversity at October 26, 2012 01:22 PM (0CiTm)
Posted by: steevy at October 26, 2012 01:22 PM (Ts9tU)
Posted by: California at October 26, 2012 01:22 PM (wAQA5)
Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2012 01:23 PM (I2LwF)
Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 01:23 PM (r2PLg)
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.
You're wrong because there will (as usual) be at least 1% "other".
So there.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 26, 2012 01:24 PM (SY2Kh)
Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 01:24 PM (ck76k)
Posted by: Kensington at October 26, 2012 01:24 PM (znT2j)
Posted by: Soona at October 26, 2012 01:24 PM (emJ/1)
Posted by: Dave S. at October 26, 2012 01:24 PM (BfZ1r)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 01:25 PM (+tqYo)
Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 01:25 PM (r2PLg)
PPP for example I feel has been stood up simply to skew RCP...and they have been notorious for throwing off averages in the past...Notably Scott Browns election...1 day before the election they came out with Scott Brown losing by ~3%...Every other poll said different...Who was correct?
PPP lost credibility as a polling outfit so they changed the rules...Scott Walker Recall election...PPP had Walker losing up until the week or 2 of the election then miraculously changed methodology and started reporting along the lines of most polling firms...IE Walker winning...
Agenda driven polls (CNN) = Garbage in and Garbage out
Which BTW who is the firm doing the polling for CNN????
Posted by: Chicken ala King at October 26, 2012 01:25 PM (VvvBE)
Posted by: Harry Reid at October 26, 2012 01:25 PM (WolTZ)
Posted by: Interested Party at October 26, 2012 01:25 PM (RE+1w)
Kerry won Independents in Ohio in 2004.
Is Obama winning them this year?
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 01:26 PM (dX4hn)
Yes. They have to norm prior to the election. Or if you prefer, they have to tell the truth by election day otherwise they will be forever remembered as being a BS poll, so in the days prior to the election they drop the reindeer games and start transitioning to the truth, slowly, so that no one can say "look here, they were just playing the numbers for political gain"
Basically they were trying to buy time for President
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 01:26 PM (eMjRH)
Second that.
I have relatives in Michigan who are some of the most conservative people that I know but would eat a bullet before voting for anybody who wasn't a democrat.
It comes from a lifetime of union membership.
Posted by: RayJ at October 26, 2012 01:26 PM (pI/IV)
Man I wish I could be as sure as you guys. I'd sleep a hell of a lot better and drink a lot less. Well maybe not the last part.
Posted by: USS Diversity at October 26, 2012 01:27 PM (0CiTm)
Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 01:27 PM (LCRYB)
2008 - Horrible GOP candidate and flashy first, historic, faint-enducing, non-Bush 'black' DEM candidate. People come out of the woodwork to vote (and crossover).
2010 - Mid-term voters literally crush Dems. Historic shift in seats up and down the ballot.
2009-2012 - Most crushing economy since Carter/Great Depression.
2012 - Romney not evil, stupid, scary, racist, gaffetastic or Bush/Cheney. Obama not a flashy first, historic, faint-enducing, non-Bush 'black' god any more.
How can Americans relect Obama considering just these points? Am I naive or have I misread my fellow Americans? Are enough of them that stupid/evil/misguided?
Seriously, I just can't conceive of him getting enough popular/EC votes to be reelected. So confuzed....
Posted by: Tonic Dog at October 26, 2012 01:27 PM (X/+QT)
Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (pnHKr)
------
Yeah that was not good, but I was actually speaking specifically of Wisconsin elections.
Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 01:27 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: Abe Froman at October 26, 2012 01:28 PM (E55AK)
Early voting.
They put these satellite locations at colleges and kids who would either be apathetic or actually take the thing seriously just stop by and vote.
And there's the huge risk of fraud or the name "accidentally" not getting checked off, etc.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2012 01:28 PM (T0NGe)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 01:28 PM (+tqYo)
That ain't an "October Surprise" those are planned and this definitely isn't
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 01:29 PM (eMjRH)
Posted by: Temper Tantrum at October 26, 2012 01:29 PM (AWmfW)
Those stories that I arranged the accident in order to "visit" the childrens' ward are absolutely false. I was already on my way here to "visit" the childrens' ward when the accident occurred.
Posted by: Harry Reid, convicted child molester at October 26, 2012 01:29 PM (ggRof)
That's wrong.
Rasmussen has Obama leading with Independents in his new Florida poll.
BTW, ARG and Purple Poll also have Obama winning Ohio.
Ohio does not like Mitt Romney.
--------
I love when Greg cites Rasmussen to make a point while generally hating Rasmussen as a right-wing polling firm everytime they go against him.
Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 01:29 PM (pnHKr)
Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 01:29 PM (ck76k)
Yes, and an Ewok with 12 mm pearls, a cashmere twin-set, and blond hair artfully brushing its cheek is just an icky thought....
Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 26, 2012 01:29 PM (kXoT0)
Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2012 01:30 PM (m2CN7)
OT: So I read on Drudge that Reid convoy has been in a multi-car accident. Im sure the MSM will be all over this. Oh noes! He's been rushed to a Vegas hospital! Benghazi not so much.
Plus that picture of Romney in a dunce cap from the O campaign. What's with that?
Posted by: Cheri at October 26, 2012 01:30 PM (G+Wff)
If he were not losing he would be playing prevent defense...
Obama said it best...Basically when your losing; change the subject to small petty things...
Romney is in a position of strength...
Obama is losing ground every day except for a few outlier polls
Posted by: Chicken ala King at October 26, 2012 01:30 PM (VvvBE)
Posted by: Jeff B. at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (/COnL)
I like this game! Massachusetts and Washington (please oh please oh please.. I want to bathe in hipster tears on the 7th).
Posted by: not the mama at October 26, 2012 01:30 PM (kzCIn)
OT but I just had a deliciously spicy burrito for lunch.
Posted by: Max Power at October 26, 2012 05:15 PM (q177U)
----------
Thanks for warning us, especially since we all have to post downwind of you. :-)
Posted by: Mary in LA at October 26, 2012 01:31 PM (9wOfB)
It comes from a lifetime of union membership.
Ask them how much their union leaders get paid. Then tell them. And not just the head guy, but all of the other people in the national office.
BTW, do they wonder why their kids/grandkids can't get a job at the old abandoned plant and have to live elsewhere?
Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2012 01:31 PM (T0NGe)
Posted by: Kevin In ABQ at October 26, 2012 01:31 PM (q1qCt)
----------
The only hiccup in that argument is that there was a certain percentage of voters (about 5% or so) that voted against the idea of a recall itself, and not specifically in support of Walker.
However, that mindset can play to our advantage too. Those voters who weren't particularly partisan but didn't like the idea of a fellow Wisconsin-ite getting unfairly attacked just might break for Ryan (and therefore Romney) for the same reason.
Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 01:31 PM (P6QsQ)
Early voting.
They put these satellite locations at colleges and kids who would either be apathetic or actually take the thing seriously just stop by and vote.
And there's the huge risk of fraud or the name "accidentally" not getting checked off, etc.
-----
It's not just that. People have been leaving Ohio in droves over the last 10+ years. In 8 years, it'll be lucky if it's worth 14 EVs. There is a fleeing of the state going on and it feels as if the people leaving are the ones who lean conservative.
Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 01:31 PM (pnHKr)
Err, are you sure PPP is included in the RCP average?
Also, is your . button broken?
Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at October 26, 2012 01:31 PM (DKxu1)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 01:31 PM (+tqYo)
Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 01:32 PM (r2PLg)
Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 26, 2012 01:32 PM (+NBAo)
Theoretically we should, but yeah, we still probably shouldn't. It's a bit of a racket to be manipulated even to the last minute. The best concession you could go with would be the final couple of weeks trends. It's here where likely a higher proportion of the polling businesses want to establish credibility so they get hired for the next project. It's also here where they must override urges to bend the outcomes because business pressures will trump ideological ones.
So, the trend is the thing as is watching the final skew numbers on D/R/I.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at October 26, 2012 01:32 PM (eHIJJ)
Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 26, 2012 01:32 PM (QxSug)
Posted by: Terrye at October 26, 2012 01:32 PM (H9eRV)
Posted by: Cheri at October 26, 2012 05:30 PM (G+Wff)
desperation from President Derp
Posted by: not the mama at October 26, 2012 01:32 PM (kzCIn)
Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 01:33 PM (LCRYB)
Posted by: Scottye_fl at October 26, 2012 01:33 PM (kb15i)
Posted by: eleven at October 26, 2012 01:33 PM (fsLdt)
---
Oh worthless troll, "ahead" does NOT equal "winning." Especially when it's less than the MOE... whoops, forgot you don't know what that means. Much like "partisan breakdown" and "oversampling."
In summation, you're a fuckwit.
Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 26, 2012 01:33 PM (aHR5E)
Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:27 PM (LCRYB)
----------------------------------------------
I agree RR could give WI a friendly visit, unless their internals are saying that the Walker status quo is holding, and to spend your money elsewhere. BUT we shall see. There's still, what, ten days?
Posted by: Soona at October 26, 2012 01:33 PM (emJ/1)
Posted by: WalrusRex at October 26, 2012 01:33 PM (Hx5uv)
Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 01:33 PM (ck76k)
Posted by: Abe Froman at October 26, 2012 05:28 PM (E55AK)
----------
This article might help shed some light on that:
http://bit.ly/S1Xpjk
Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 01:34 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: MaxMBJ at October 26, 2012 01:34 PM (wfT/H)
Posted by: Temper Tantrum at October 26, 2012 05:29 PM (AWmfW)
You should tweet him telling him just because he stops half way usually, doesnt make him any less complicit than the rest of the MSM which goes all the way down to the obamaballs
Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 26, 2012 01:34 PM (ovpNn)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 01:34 PM (+tqYo)
---
Obama's going after the Nickelodeon vote.
Posted by: WalrusRex at October 26, 2012 01:35 PM (Hx5uv)
------------
Ryan has been in and out of here, and Romney is coming Monday night to a rally at the State Fairgrounds in suburban Milwaukee.
Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 01:35 PM (P6QsQ)
Ace...there is no help for you. YOU do not understand OH and need to give it up. CNN simply hides there Dem Plus Sample in the INDEPENDENTS....that is how every poll except TIME (which buy the way did that same poll not have CNN already sponsor) shows Romney up with Independents. Why would TIME do a poll with CNN and then CNN another on its own. CNN knows that everyone is looking at the partisan breakdown...CNN did this in Florida as well. They increase the DEM SAMPLE by INCREASING DEM INDIES and then simply counting them as Independents. Why do you PUBLISH this crap?
You are fixated on OH and polls. THE MSM must show OH this way to keep OBAMA in the game. Why are you so DUMB? God the GOP could show ACE everysingle metric that shows how Obama's Early Numbers are down and ACE will still buy the BS about OH.
Notice how Ras, Angus and Gravis....have the race tied....yet CNN/TIME do not...HMMM I WONDER WHY? The History Professor out of University of Dayton has SAID you analyze the early returns and the GOP is overperforming and the DEMS are underperforming. But once again little ACE cries over CNN....it is pathetic!
You Ace have no idea what you are talking about for OH. You do not have family there like many of us. I have several working for the campaign in OH and you simply have no idea what you are saying. Mitt is hitting on all his targets and exceeding. This is the LINCHPIN state for OBAMA and Ace just misses the ball each time.
They will show this state like this until election day and then claim Romney stole OH because people like you refuse to understand the OH polls!
There will be NO ADV for OBAMA in OH at all...even today check out Gallup's new partisan polling they have found:
REPUBLICANS PLUS 1....not DEMS PLUS 5 which means every poll that is oversampling Dems is garbage....
CNN/TIME want to show Obama up in OH to claim Romney stole the state. SORRY ACE...the early numbers are not good for Obama at all. You keep forgetting McCain won OH on election day and only lost because of Obama's 20 percent early vote adv. IT IS GONE!
WAKE UP ACE and stop messing your pants on OH. You have not understood the state since day 1 and you still do not!
You have to love pouty Ace's line...LOOK LOOK CNN partisan split is not unbelievable...and LOOK LOOK HE IS WINNING INDIES:
Never mind clueless that 9 other polls in OH have Romney winning Indies by high single to double digits....except TIME which did its poll with CNN....LOL!!
God please enlighten Ace....he looks so dumb when it comes to my Buckeye State.
Romney will win OH by minimum of 4 points.....early voting already tells you that..BUT BELIEVE CNN ACE....especially since you are clueless how they give the edge to Indies....lol!...could it be Dems in the Indy Count to hide that????
Posted by: bluerose75 at October 26, 2012 01:35 PM (HDcKc)
Posted by: B. Hussein Obama at October 26, 2012 01:35 PM (WolTZ)
FYI - This race has been completely stable since October 13th. I posted the trend lines on my blog (link in nic) this morning.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 01:35 PM (dX4hn)
Posted by: MJ at October 26, 2012 01:35 PM (TR60b)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2012 01:35 PM (TMB3S)
http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/
Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 26, 2012 01:35 PM (hlUJY)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 05:31 PM (+tqYo)
Stick to fantasizing about her: http://is.gd/zwF6EA
You have a better chance.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 26, 2012 01:36 PM (2b4yb)
Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 26, 2012 01:36 PM (QxSug)
Thanks for brightening my day.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 01:36 PM (eMjRH)
We need this to END on Nov 7th. Spend the money somewhere else Mitt. Don't finance massive voter fraud.
Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 26, 2012 01:37 PM (feFL6)
Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 01:37 PM (ck76k)
Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 01:37 PM (pnHKr)
Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 01:37 PM (r2PLg)
The only thing to do is to grit our teeth, tighten our belts, and GOTV as hard as we can.
Posted by: torquewrench at October 26, 2012 01:37 PM (ymG7s)
Posted by: Honey Badger at October 26, 2012 01:37 PM (GvYeG)
Posted by: MJ at October 26, 2012 01:37 PM (TR60b)
Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 26, 2012 01:37 PM (n5+zr)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 01:38 PM (+tqYo)
Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 01:38 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: MJ at October 26, 2012 01:39 PM (TR60b)
Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 01:39 PM (r2PLg)
I'll laugh when MI goes Romney on election night, mainly because that arrogant SOB in the WH totally ignored it, thought it was in the bag.
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 26, 2012 01:39 PM (PHb2k)
In 2004, Bush won nationwide by 2.4%. He won Ohio by 2.11%. Which is to say that Bush ran BEHIND his national margin in Ohio by a slight amount.
In 2008, Obama won by 4.6% nationwide. He won Ohio by 4.59% percent. Which is to say that Obama ALSO ran behind his national margin by a slight(er) amount.
The upshot is that OH has swung almost like clockwork over the last two cycles with the national vote. (And the only reason it didn't do so in 2000 was because Gore ultimately pulled out of the state, putting all his resources into FL and NH and IA instead.)
Given the trends over the past eight years, and the lack of any sharpening margin for one party or the other, it would be very surprising indeed if the final outcome in OH didn't roughly mirror the national popular vote.
Posted by: Jeff B. at October 26, 2012 01:40 PM (/COnL)
I like this one too!
http://is.gd/Ry10ch
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 26, 2012 01:41 PM (2b4yb)
Posted by: MJ at October 26, 2012 01:41 PM (TR60b)
Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 26, 2012 01:41 PM (n5+zr)
Posted by: Scottye_fl at October 26, 2012 01:41 PM (kb15i)
---
A - It's Gerg.
B - It will be back.
Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 26, 2012 01:42 PM (aHR5E)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 01:42 PM (+tqYo)
Well, in that case, if the crazy lady with a fondness for capital letters says so...
Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 26, 2012 01:42 PM (SY2Kh)
It's a modification of the European stupidity indicator called "donkey ears" == (heh). Really.
Posted by: LC LaWedgie at October 26, 2012 01:42 PM (0It32)
Um..Yeah That's exactly what they would do. You call that a "contingency plan" or an alternate way to 270 if you will.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 01:42 PM (eMjRH)
Posted by: Scottye_fl at October 26, 2012 01:43 PM (kb15i)
Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 01:43 PM (r2PLg)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 26, 2012 01:43 PM (Ec6wH)
-------------
It's a fallback strategy.
Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 01:43 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: LRBnSC at October 26, 2012 01:44 PM (Qp3K5)
----------
Not sure about Oiho, but Ohio is definitely Eastern Time Zone.
Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 01:44 PM (P6QsQ)
Just cause you weren't quick enough to see him. Doesn't mean he wasn't (isn't) here.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 01:44 PM (eMjRH)
Posted by: eleven at October 26, 2012 01:44 PM (fsLdt)
Posted by: Scottye_fl at October 26, 2012 01:44 PM (kb15i)
Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 05:35 PM (P6QsQ)
-----------------------------------------
See, Ace. Mama knows.
Posted by: Soona at October 26, 2012 01:44 PM (emJ/1)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 26, 2012 01:45 PM (Ec6wH)
Posted by: pendejo grande at October 26, 2012 01:45 PM (OZW5B)
Two years of a Harry Reid led Senate could create giant, cluster-fuck headaches for the Romney administration.
Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2012 01:45 PM (UypUQ)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 05:44 PM (+tqYo)
-------------
Maybe it will keep him home for a while, and away from lurking around the Boy Scout meetings.
Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 01:45 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: LRBnSC at October 26, 2012 05:44 PM (Qp3K5)
-----------------------------------
Shucks.
Posted by: Soona at October 26, 2012 01:47 PM (emJ/1)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows the Obama regime has committed treason at October 26, 2012 01:47 PM (AZGON)
Well, I would go harass him, but he is so thin-skinned he blocked me months ago. Me, polite Miss Marple! All I did was ask several pointed questions!
He's an ass. When I followed him he devoted lots of tweets to things like pop music and movies, which was his MAJOR in college (pop culture). The chief White House correspondent for ABC majored in People Magazine crap.
So despite his ill-deserved reputation as a "hard-hitting reporter" he is really ill-informed and mostly interested in popularity.
Those of you who haven't been blocked ought to pile on him like an avalanche in Grenoble. He needs to be convinced that if he doesn't cover Benghazi he will no longer get a good table at Sans Souci.
Posted by: Miss Marple at October 26, 2012 01:47 PM (GoIUi)
Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 01:48 PM (P6QsQ)
---
Bless his heart.
Posted by: WalrusRex at October 26, 2012 01:48 PM (Hx5uv)
I hit your tip jar last month and will hit it again before the election. Goofy comment system and all, I honestly hope this place never changes. Love you guys!
Posted by: Mary in LA at October 26, 2012 01:48 PM (9wOfB)
Oh, I see. All the polling firms just happen randomly to be showing Obama winning Ohio! That old "margin of error" is cropping up in all the polls and only in one direction!
Election night is going to be so much fun with all your heads exploding when Ohio is called for Obama and the polls were right all along.
I'll be rubbing your noses in that stink all night long.
------
This guy. Listen, there are two things here 1) you're going to be banned continuosly from here on out and 2)You won't even be here because Romney is going to win the race and you'll be to much of a coward to show the fuck up. And, just to add a third, you're a fucking idiot. Which really has nothing to do with anything at all, but it's true.
Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 01:49 PM (pnHKr)
Posted by: dantesed at October 26, 2012 01:49 PM (+OqJt)
Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at October 26, 2012 01:49 PM (DQMcq)
Ohio--electing Kasich? No solace there?
---------
I take none in it. Not when the state largely hates the man now and voted down his reform bill by a massive margin. I really do hate the people arond me.
Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 01:50 PM (pnHKr)
I like this one too!
http://is.gd/Ry10ch
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 26, 2012 05:41 PM (2b4yb)
You call those tits? THESE are Tits!
NSFW!!
http://tinyurl.com/933ox59
Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 26, 2012 01:50 PM (ovpNn)
Broken ribs hurt. So there's that.
Yes I've heard it's extremely painful. He won't be in the mood for the boys for a while.
Posted by: eleven at October 26, 2012 01:51 PM (fsLdt)
Posted by: megthered at October 26, 2012 01:51 PM (iR4Dg)
Posted by: MJ at October 26, 2012 01:51 PM (TR60b)
Me? I'm spending the day tomorrow in Newport News, VA, knocking on doors and making phone calls (and that's a bitch of a commute for a guy who lives in the MD suburbs). I highly recommend that everyone else go and do the same thing.
But I will say this: Romney's internals right now? I have it on reasonably good authority that they are actually far better in states like OH, VA, FL, and certain other mystery states that I shall not mention than everyone out here realizes. There is a bit of "well this can't QUITE be correct, can it?" attitude among people, but the numbers are returning consistently and in the same direction.
Let me put it this way: IA, NH, WI: toss a coin, these could go either way. OH? Mitt will win, and the call will be made on election night, not after five recounts or any sort of thing like that. It most certainly didn't look that way as recently as a month ago. But it does now. My final call? 52-48 Romney over Obama.
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.
Posted by: Jeff B. at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (/COnL)
I bet it is Minnesota, which is trending Republican, and either PA or MI. Romney wins Ohio because Republicans actually turn out for this election. They did not in 2008.
Posted by: NWConservative at October 26, 2012 01:51 PM (M1gmo)
==========
What's the deal with you? Are you alive or dead, dammit?
Posted by: Kensington at October 26, 2012 01:52 PM (znT2j)
Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 01:52 PM (ck76k)
Posted by: @PurpAv at October 26, 2012 01:52 PM (eRV2W)
I understand why Romney wants to remain above the fray, but it's time for PACs, surrogates and leakers to spill, leak, spread, imply, suggest, manipulate... whatever is necessary. Whatever. Is. Necessary.
Posted by: Mayday at October 26, 2012 01:52 PM (F3s39)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 01:53 PM (eMjRH)
I live in Ohio and the stupid is very strong here. Of course, I live in Columbus, where stupid is thick. I had to make a trip to Cinci yesterdayand once I was out of metro Columbus, Obama signs were few and far between. Saw about 1000 Romney signs. The only place you see Obama signs is in the lower income areas, and the white guilt liberal areas like Bexley, and the OSU campus area and German Village.
--------
All of this. Especially the part about Bexley (where I live). The very rich, jewish area has a hard-on for Obama. Although, I have to admit, there are quite a few Romney signs my neighborhood.
Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 01:53 PM (pnHKr)
He was Joan Walsh at Salon before Joan Walsh was Joan Walsh at Salon.
Posted by: Kensington at October 26, 2012 01:53 PM (znT2j)
Posted by: MJ at October 26, 2012 01:53 PM (TR60b)
A conference on “Personhood Beyond the Human” will be held at Yale University, April 19-21, 2013. The event will focus on personhood for nonhuman animals, including great apes, cetaceans, and elephants, and will explore the evolving notions of personhood by analyzing them through the frameworks of neuroscience, behavioral science, philosophy, ethics, and law.
The conference will be co-sponsored by the Nonhuman Rights Project and the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies in collaboration with the Yale Interdisciplinary Center for Bioethics.
Posted by: WalrusRex at October 26, 2012 01:54 PM (Hx5uv)
http://tinyurl.com/933ox59
Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 26, 2012 05:50 PM (ovpNn)
----------------------------------------------
I hope you get sick and have to share a hospital room with Harry Reid.
Posted by: Soona at October 26, 2012 01:54 PM (emJ/1)
I know exactly what you mean. I want to see Rasmussen state polling for Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania go to R 52 O 46 every day for 7 days in a row.
But even though the truth may be close to that, the media will not give it to us. They believe they have the power to shape reality by denying reality.
Posted by: edj at October 26, 2012 01:55 PM (+QKfp)
Posted by: davidinvirginia at October 26, 2012 01:56 PM (qEkGZ)
Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 01:56 PM (ck76k)
Posted by: USS Diversity at October 26, 2012 01:56 PM (0CiTm)
Posted by: toby928© for TB at October 26, 2012 01:57 PM (evdj2)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 26, 2012 01:58 PM (Ec6wH)
BREAKING: Local Reporter Says Obama Refuses To Answer “Repeated Questions On Whether Requests For Help In Benghazi Were Denied”
Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 05:56 PM (ck76k)
VIDEO VIDEO GIVE ME THE FUCKING VIDEO FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP
Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 26, 2012 01:59 PM (ovpNn)
Was the caravan speeding? Did Harry Reid give the order speed? If not, did he know they were speeding and fail to stop it?
<< SLAPS SELF >>
Sorry. I was stuck in Benghazi mode.
Posted by: edj at October 26, 2012 01:59 PM (+QKfp)
Posted by: Redd at October 26, 2012 02:01 PM (RoEtU)
Posted by: Jack Hammer at October 26, 2012 02:01 PM (JHbj+)
Posted by: deusexmachina at October 26, 2012 02:01 PM (6RTwM)
Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 02:02 PM (P6QsQ)
but Dane and Milwaukee counties are liberal cocoons. "Independent" here means "lean Democrat." I am hoping we keep up the streak and turn red this election, but more than that, I hope it's not necessary.
-------
And yet, Cuyahoga County they are not.
Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 02:03 PM (pnHKr)
---
Okay.
21-point lead * 1.4 = 29.4
07-point lead * 4.4 = 30.8
Romney comes out ahead.
Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2012 02:04 PM (UypUQ)
Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2012 02:05 PM (UypUQ)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 26, 2012 02:05 PM (Ec6wH)
Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 02:07 PM (ck76k)
Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 02:07 PM (r2PLg)
Here is something to keep in mind when people talk about the early vote numbers, a much higher percentage of democrats are voting for Romney, then are RINO's voting for Ofuckmcfuckstick.
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 26, 2012 02:08 PM (PHb2k)
Rich @ 283
Really. I drive up and down Cassady Avenue and enjoy counting the signs from time to time. I have reason to go to Bexley as my son is at Capital. I reckon the Obama signs are about 4:1 over Romney in Bexley.
In Westerville, the Romney signs are running about 3:1 over Obama.
Fun times. Romney wins Ohio by about 175K votes out of 5.75 million votes cast (by end of voting on Nov.6). Really, Romney is in a stronger position in Ohio than Michigan or Wisconsin, which still may swing his way (close!). Indeed, the weighting is to keep morale up among the Obama faithful.
Romney does not win Pennsylvania. Close, but not really. Wisconsin is still a toss up. Michigan is all about who turns out to vote; they could still go Republican. Iowa I think still goes Democrat. The surprise may be New Mexico going Republican.
Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch writes..... at October 26, 2012 02:11 PM (RFeQD)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 26, 2012 02:11 PM (Ec6wH)
Posted by: Oldcat at October 26, 2012 02:12 PM (rzSn3)
Ace? How the *&*^ can anyone be independant and/or undecided at this point? Why do they control our thoughts? they are morons.
Posted by: Baron of Gray Matter at October 26, 2012 02:14 PM (5UEzy)
God, I wish I were there. Of course, my threshold for personhood would be "being able to understand calculus".
They find such kinship with such animals because they are so like them intellectually.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2012 02:15 PM (T0NGe)
Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch writes..... at October 26, 2012 02:16 PM (RFeQD)
Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:06 PM (LCRYB)
That's fine, Ace. If you could please do it with less hysterics everytime a Dem-loving pollster yanks your chain it would be nice, though. I dunno. Do you actually enjoy having panic attacks? Jeez.
Posted by: davidinvirginia at October 26, 2012 02:17 PM (qEkGZ)
They use party affiliation to identify...
So if some AFL-CIO errrrr UAW recently registered Democrat homer votes Romney...The early vote tally is for Oblamo...
Which I would find more likely more frequently than the other way around...
Posted by: Chicken ala King at October 26, 2012 02:18 PM (VvvBE)
Posted by: TheThinMan at October 26, 2012 02:19 PM (GZqzs)
Rich @ 283
Really. I drive up and down Cassady Avenue and enjoy counting the signs from time to time. I have reason to go to Bexley as my son is at Capital. I reckon the Obama signs are about 4:1 over Romney in Bexley.
In Westerville, the Romney signs are running about 3:1 over Obama.
Fun times. Romney wins Ohio by about 175K votes out of 5.75 million votes cast (by end of voting on Nov.6). Really, Romney is in a stronger position in Ohio than Michigan or Wisconsin, which still may swing his way (close!). Indeed, the weighting is to keep morale up among the Obama faithful.
Romney does not win Pennsylvania. Close, but not really. Wisconsin is still a toss up. Michigan is all about who turns out to vote; they could still go Republican. Iowa
-------------
Oh there is no doubt that overall the Obama signs outnumber the Romney signs in Bexley and specifically on Cassady (I live on the street). But, the route I take every day, which is down Drexler has more Romney signs than Obama signs. If I were to drive around the entire neighborhood, I'm sure the Obama signs would take a lead. But, at least it isn't a whitewash.
Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 02:22 PM (pnHKr)
From nowhere a voice begins shouting what seems to be helpful advice, directing the three companions through a confusing part of the trail. But before they know it, they drop into a deep pit and realize they've been tricked. The owner of the voice introduces himself as the long-nosed, green-eyed, curly-haired, wide- mouthed, thick-necked, broad-shouldered, round-bodied, short-armed, bowlegged, big-footed Monster—or simply the Demon of Insincerity.
The demon warns Milo and his friends not to try to escape
from the pit since he is "one of the most frightening fiends in this
whole wild wilderness". Tock and the Humbug cower in fear, but Milo
pulls out the telescope that Alec Bings told him would show things as
they really were. He takes a good look at the Demon of Insincerity and
discovers that he is a small, pathetic-looking animal. Crushed by Milo's
realization of the truth, the demon wanders away while the travelers
climb out of the pit.
Posted by: edj at October 26, 2012 02:22 PM (+QKfp)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 26, 2012 02:25 PM (Ec6wH)
Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 26, 2012 02:28 PM (aHR5E)
I'm right, but my blood pressure would be lower if I didn't have to listen to all the angst from people who should know better.
But to be fair, Ace is unconvinced that my reweighting has validity. Not sure how to convince him otherwise until after the election. By then he will be on a drunken bender after getting invited to all the cool GOP parties, while I'm just slogging through life.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 02:29 PM (dX4hn)
07-point lead * 4.4 = 30.8
Romney comes out ahead.
The math is a little wrong here.
Assuming 1.4 million and 4.4 million is right, and the percentages are right:
Of the 1.4 million,
Obama gets 826000
Romoney gets 532000
Of the 4.4 million,
Obama gets 1936000
Romney gets 2244000
Totals:
Obama: 2762000
Romney 2776000
Obama: 49.88%
Romney: 50.12%
It's too damn close. Fuckin' Ohio man. It's scary as hell.
Posted by: Sheldon Cooper at October 26, 2012 02:30 PM (mcWHD)
Posted by: K2 at October 26, 2012 02:34 PM (sKh53)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 26, 2012 02:35 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: trickamsterdam at October 26, 2012 02:37 PM (uTBHY)
Obama gets 826000
Romoney gets 532000"
Bullshit.
Romney campaign has done the math. GOP has 401K votes in right now, and Dems have 492K. That leaves 500K unaffiliated that we know favor Romney by double digits. Even at 50/50 Obama gets 742K and Romney gets 626K.
Final vote would be:
Romney 2,870,000
Obama 2,672,000
I bet it is higher too.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 02:42 PM (dX4hn)
Dude, I've only been active in Ohio politics since 1988 and work for a fucking for-profit, private polling firm in the state. We've polled Ohio (among a bunch of states) over the last 7 weeks for one of the two campaigns. Doesn't matter which one because the checks clear and that's what matters to my management.
Obama isn't going to win Ohio. Period.
Mandel will win, too.
I hate to be harsh but I'm tired of the crap. Some of us have lived here for a long damn time and know the state petty well. We know what we're talking about.
Obama will be in Cincinnati on Wednesday trying to gin up votes in Bond Hill and Walnut Hills, i.e., in inner city neighborhoods. He's in desperation, get out the base mode 11 days from Election Day. Do the fucking math, Ace.
Watch what they do, not what they say.
Be not afraid.
Posted by: trumpetdaddy at October 26, 2012 02:49 PM (dcoFe)
Posted by: Mr Wonderful at October 26, 2012 03:20 PM (6/bOE)
Posted by: James at October 26, 2012 03:50 PM (IoTd/)
Posted by: Redman Bluestate at October 26, 2012 03:51 PM (sRIFP)
Many people here take it as an article of faith that the polls are wrong, corrupted. I've worked in the market research industry for decades and it's utterly predictable that people will attack the agency when they don't see the results they want.
I haven't seen any proof of widespread fraud though. I won't defend any company I don't have direct experience with, but if there was widespread corruption, for one thing there would be leakers. Far more people are involved in producing each poll that you would think. And there's too much overall consistency among polls to believe there's widespread fraud.
It is possible Romney is doing better than we're seeing though. First, we only see what somebody wants us to see. The vast majority of polling is not released to the public, so it can be cherry picked. Gallup, Rasmussen and others that release data on a regular schedule are obvious exceptions. They conduct polls and release results to build their brand, but most polling is conducted for a specific buyer who may or may not choose to publish the results.
There could be systematic bias in the results we see if R voters are participating in polls at a lower rate than D voters. (Sure wish I could get my hands on the kind of data I'd need to find out.). But these possibilities aren't proof Romney is doing better than we're seeing in some places.
The most important thing to watch is movement over time within each pollster's results.
Posted by: Mayday at October 26, 2012 03:57 PM (F3s39)
In 2012, there have been 430,000 dead / moved voters removed from the voter rolls in Ohio.....
In 2012, the number of GOP and Independent registered voters has doubled / tripled the Dems.....
In 2008, vote totals = McCain 2,502,218 vs. Obama 2,708,988 - a difference of only 206,770.
Hang in there Ace!
Posted by: slysquire at October 26, 2012 04:04 PM (baOaV)
Well DUH!
The reason polls don't show Romney ahead in O-I-H-O is because these clowns know how important it is for Barry. If there's any weakness there, Dems will stay home in drives.
You watch - NH, VA, NC, SC and FL will go Romney early. But the MSM will hold-off giving Romney O-I-H-O (and likely WI too) just to make sure the West Dems don't stay home.
Still think Romney takes O-I-H-O en route to a good ole fashioned butt-whoooopin. The Won about to = The Lost
Posted by: PelosiSchmelosi at October 26, 2012 04:13 PM (epFGF)
Ohio: Obama is ahead in every poll (which Ace has stated many times).
Romney will not win without Ohio.
You lose.
I win.
Suck my big cock, wingnuts.
Posted by: Greg at October 26, 2012 04:29 PM (rpZo5)
Posted by: trickamsterdam at October 26, 2012 04:33 PM (uTBHY)
Posted by: butternut at October 26, 2012 05:01 PM (nbYoV)
41 I still think a lot of the Ohio polls are simple bias. What happens if there are polls showing Romney up 2 in Ohio? Game over, man. Game over.
Exactly! They have to maintian the illusion Ohio is contested or the whole Democrat election effort from the top to the bottom of the ticket collapses and the whole thing turns into a rout!
Posted by: Grig at October 26, 2012 05:15 PM (BsG1N)
You'd have to believe that undecideds are going to break overwhelmingly to him for him to lose by less than a point in the Popular Vote. Which makes no sense...he's been in Office for four years, and is well-known.
--
I agree undecideds are not going to break for Obama. I was responding to people who believe the polls are rigged, and intentionally trying to mislead that Romney is in worse shape than he is.
But if Romney were safely, significantly ahead we'd probably see that. He probably will do better because of undecideds breaking towards him. I'd feel better if we saw him in clearer leads now though (ie, OH or other tied state polls) because we have to allow for the possibility (probability?) of fraud. And I was also kind of defending Ace because a lot of people were giving him a hard time for saying he's a little worried to see the race this close.
Posted by: Mayday at October 26, 2012 05:21 PM (F3s39)
Posted by: Zee Chen at October 26, 2012 06:57 PM (oZIRw)
Posted by: Mick Langan at October 26, 2012 09:22 PM (n5PpX)
Posted by: Davidlind at October 26, 2012 09:42 PM (J9mCu)
Posted by: Frank S at October 26, 2012 10:13 PM (B9edC)
But in any case, nobody spends enough $$$ on these state snapshot polls to do an accurate LV screen. None of them are terribly reliable, and while they provide useful information, they should not be taken too seriously, IMO.
Posted by: Leeotis at October 27, 2012 06:07 AM (QQMnU)
Posted by: mrks at October 28, 2012 08:58 AM (15/2r)
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Posted by: Gerg at October 26, 2012 12:56 PM (PY0du)