Ace of Spades HQ

November 01, 2012

Romney Internal Memo: Yeah, We're Winning Iowa
— Ace

A guy named @talldave7 wants people to understand something: Even if Romney loses a bunch of east/midwest states, he can still win if he wins Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.*

Only Nevada is a tough slog in that trio.

Just keep that in mind. I actually think we'll win Wisconsin, so we won't have to worry for too deep into the night. But even if that doesn't come to pass, Republicans in Colorado and Nevada can cinch the election for Romney.

So long as we grab Iowa. Which I once thought was a lost cause.

But Iowa is looking good.

An Iowa Republican tells me, Â“I have seen polling from a third-party group, three congressionals, our state Senate campaigns and state House campaigns Â— all using different pollsters, and ALL of them have Romney rising, and ALL of them have Romney with a 1 to 2 point lead.Â”

See the link for more details. The important things are that Republicans are overperforming in the early vote, and have cut Obama's lead in Democrats casting early votes by 75%. Obama still leads, but by a much smaller margin.

And, again, he's cannibalizing certain votes just to keep that padded edge:

Â• The Obama campaign is panicking, and you can see it in the way they are turning out their most reliable, most likely voters long before Election Day. They are using their highest propensity voters to pad their absentee and early vote numbers. Incredibly, half of Iowa Democrats who have voted in all four of the last four general elections have been made to request absentee ballots or vote early by the Obama campaign.
Â• The upshot is that Republicans have twice as many reliable, high propensity voters available on Election Day. Republicans already have a natural advantage on Election Day Â– after all, we invented the 72-Hour Program Â– which will only be larger in 2012 due to our record-shattering volunteer voter contact effort and the DemocratsÂ’ foolish decision to cannibalize their most reliable voters to pad their early voting figures.

* That actually gets him to a 269-269 tie, but then Romney would win in the House.

Plus, if he wins the very-gettable Maine-2 single EV, that would do it.

Pennsylvania Dreaming? Romney's on his way. And it's not just a head fake-- In 2008, Republicans led absentee voting by 2%, in a surprisingly narrow loss in an election Obama destroyed McCain in.

Today, Republicans lead by 18%.

Absentees are a small slice of the voting population, but they are suggestive of determination to vote in the broader population.

Posted by: Ace at 01:26 PM | Comments (147)
Post contains 443 words, total size 3 kb.

1 310 EC votes. Romster!

Posted by: rickb223 at November 01, 2012 01:27 PM (DsC07)

2 Iowa's had a bite at the conservative apple, and like it. I agree they go Romney.

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 01:27 PM (LpQbZ)

3 Exclusive: RomneyÂ’s heading to Pennsylvania as GOP drops millions on ads http://tinyurl.com/b3fz5j6

Posted by: newrouter at November 01, 2012 01:28 PM (kfeRL)

4 Oh, and 1st.

Posted by: rickb223 at November 01, 2012 01:28 PM (DsC07)

5 ** I mean WI. Good Lord, I'm tired.

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 01:28 PM (LpQbZ)

6 ---- It's a trap! wait, what? by Disney? Really? well, okay. It's a small world after all! -

Posted by: Admiral Ackbar at November 01, 2012 01:29 PM (RuUvx)

7 I hope the world is watching this.

Posted by: Soona at November 01, 2012 01:29 PM (16B11)

8 This is why we need to win and be successful: 3 of 9 Justices Will Turn 80 by 2016 Election (CNSNews.com) - Three of the nine justices on a U.S. Supreme Court that has decided many significant issues by 5-4 votes over the past decade will turn 80 years of age before the 2016 presidential election. The three justices are Antonin Scalia, an anchor of the courtÂ’s conservative wing, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an anchor of the courtÂ’s liberal wing, and Anthony Kennedy, who is often the decisive swing vote in 5-4 opinions.

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 01:29 PM (LpQbZ)

9 "Plus, if he wins the very-gettable Maine-2 single EV, that would do it." Or New Hampshire.

Posted by: Mark1971 at November 01, 2012 01:30 PM (Vjplh)

10

I have actually never been to Iowa, but from my totally stereotyped view of it being a midwestern flyover state, I would assume that Romney would have this state locked up a long time ago.

How does Obama even compete in this state? I mean, in California, people are left-wing, so it makes sense. But Iowa? Somebody explain.

Posted by: dan-O at November 01, 2012 01:30 PM (sWycd)

Ace said: Just keep that in mind. I actually think we'll win Wisconsin, so we won't have to worry for too deep into the night. But even if that doesn't come to pass, Republicans in Colorado and Nevada can cinch the election for Romney. So long as we grab Iowa."

If we win WI, CO, and Iowa we don't need Nevada.

Posted by: Jon (not the troll) at November 01, 2012 01:30 PM (q7PAR)

12 Is it too early to start betting on how many pardons Obama gives in his final three months in office?

Posted by: BumperStickerist at November 01, 2012 01:30 PM (RuUvx)

13 How does Obama even compete in this state? I mean, in California, people are left-wing, so it makes sense. But Iowa? Somebody explain.

CORN

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 01, 2012 01:30 PM (9+ccr)

14 May Axelrod do a Kermit. Throw arms in the air and run around, preferably away from Ms. Valerie Jarret Piggy.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 01, 2012 01:31 PM (HiC8z)

15 Not being mentioned in this post makes me sadsies.

Posted by: Ohio at November 01, 2012 01:31 PM (Zs83Q)

"That actually gets him to a 269-269 tie, but then Romney would win in the House."

And Slow Joe would win in the Senate and still be VP. They are the ones that decide VP. Paul loses. I cannot accept a tie. I want a sexy VP for once, not some old goat who doesn't even know where he's at.

Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 01, 2012 01:32 PM (DEEk/)

17 The emails that I get from Steve King are the exact opposite tone as the Obama one below. Very upbeat, very much "we've got this". He's running against (fmr. gov., ag. sec.) Vilsack's wife.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 01, 2012 01:32 PM (T0NGe)

18 Cannibalize? I hope that these EV states have a mechanism to ensure that early voters don't simply vote again on election day.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 01, 2012 01:32 PM (QxSug)

19 Romney could be projected to win Massachusetts by 15 points, and some people would still be saying how important that was, since Ohio "remains close."

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at November 01, 2012 01:32 PM (JVCVF)

20 Only Nevada is a tough slog in that trio. One of the worst economies, and yet they keep voting in the dems. Reid, part of the corrupt culture there. Mobs. Money. Deals. Fraud. It will be one helluva slog.

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 01:32 PM (LpQbZ)

21 If Romney takes NH and PA, it is over early.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at November 01, 2012 01:32 PM (AD7g/)

That actually gets him to a 269-269 tie, but then Romney would win in the House.

Choose your next words carefully, blogger.

Posted by: fluffeneidas at November 01, 2012 01:32 PM (O6q63)

23 Making calls on Saturday, ORCA on Nov 6th. Please do something if you can.

Posted by: MJ at November 01, 2012 01:32 PM (TR60b)

24 Yay! The Helen Thomas Happy Halloween picture is gone, replaced by not-so-little Debbie.

Posted by: Bart at November 01, 2012 01:32 PM (he2LC)

25 How does Obama even compete in this state? I mean, in California, people
are left-wing, so it makes sense. But Iowa? Somebody explain.

Since Iowa has no black people the white people are guilt-driven to vote for Obama.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at November 01, 2012 01:32 PM (QKKT0)

>>I have actually never been to Iowa

Corn.

Corn-fed farm girls.

Big Whitetail.

Iowa is ok.

Posted by: garrett at November 01, 2012 01:32 PM (cOkX2)

27 Not being mentioned in this post makes me sadsies.
Posted by: Ohio at November 01, 2012 05:31 PM

If that's not a cue for Gerg, I don't know what is...

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 01, 2012 01:32 PM (WMsq+)

28 >>>>I want a sexy VP for once, not some old goat who doesn't even know where he's at.

Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 01, 2012 05:32 PM (DEEk/)

Excuse me?!

Posted by: Cheney's War Cock at November 01, 2012 01:33 PM (Zs83Q)

29 Posted by: Ohio at November 01, 2012 05:31 PM (Zs83Q)

Hannity had radios Bill Cunningham life long Ohioan on his show today and he said no way obama wins Ohio. He went through all his reason and they seemed sound...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 01, 2012 01:33 PM (9+ccr)

30 Well, there's Helen Â‘s bad side and I guess it wasn't as gradual as I thought it would be.

Posted by: Kindle Opus Anarcus at November 01, 2012 01:33 PM (v6Iz7)

31 The three justices are Antonin Scalia, an anchor of the courtÃ¯Â¿Â½s conservative wing, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an anchor of the courtÃ¯Â¿Â½s liberal wing, and Anthony Kennedy, who is often the decisive swing vote in 5-4 opinions. --- And of those, Ginsburg isn't healthy while Scalia and Kennedy would be trying to hold on for a Republican to fill the seat.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at November 01, 2012 01:33 PM (e0xKF)

32 Is it time to reintroduce the "what crazy things can Romney and Ryan do just to make it close" meme?

I say Romney should take on the first assignment in Fight Club. Go out and pick a fight with a total stranger - and lose.

Posted by: angler at November 01, 2012 01:33 PM (SwjAj)

33 Ace, I am double posting this. I am begging, BEGGING you to remember to use the Done Skull if and when we do this on Tuesday. Begging.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at November 01, 2012 01:33 PM (6JMZR)

34 I like the fact that the EVs have taken a major, major step away from Obama and look strikingly different from 2008.

I don't like that we're waving around internal polling #s like the Barrett people back during the recall election.

Like the song says, "Tell me somethin' good..."

(Gallup comes back tomorrow, right?)

Posted by: GOPPartyReptile at November 01, 2012 01:34 PM (j9FqA)

35 Dan-o - Iowa - farm, ethanol, wind power addicted. As conservative as they can tend to be, giving up sucking on that tit of government is hard on a State wide level.

Posted by: H Badger at November 01, 2012 01:34 PM (n/0Nw)

36 Only Nevada is a tough slog in that trio.

One of the worst economies, and yet they keep voting in the dems.

Reid, part of the corrupt culture there.

Mobs.

Money.

Deals.

Fraud.

It will be one helluva slog.

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 05:32 PM (LpQbZ)

i also think they have a large r paul fanclub

Posted by: willow at November 01, 2012 01:34 PM (hX8cq)

37 Slow Joe would win in the Senate and still be VP. They are the ones that decide VP.Paul loses.

Lots of new factories and malls will be opening in a Romney admin.

Those ribbons won't cut themselves.

Posted by: Joe Mama at November 01, 2012 01:34 PM (JJ+PT)

38 This is why we need to win and be successful:

3 of 9 Justices Will Turn 80 by 2016 Election

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 05:29 PM (LpQbZ)

Yeah, that worked out well with Chief Justice Bobby.

Screw relying on the Supremes.

Posted by: Oldcat at November 01, 2012 01:34 PM (z1N6a)

39 Driving back from Des Moines yesterday, I stopped off and had lunch with my dad. Dad is a rural Iowan. He lives way out there in farm country, miles and miles from the nearest McDonaldÂ’s, Walmart or Pizza Hut. His circle of friends is made up of rural Iowans. Dad is Iowan to the core. He mentioned that Obama is coming back to Iowa for his seventh trip to the state in two months. Romney, Ryan and Biden have been here several times each too. We talked about how that can only mean that they all agree that that the election is close and that IowaÂ’s six electoral votes are not only in play, they are damned important. I asked him what he is hearing out there in the Iowa boondocks. He said that a lot of people think Â“Romney is too damned rich.Â” I asked him why the hell that should be a negative. He said that people are saying that he has so damned much money he doesnÂ’t need anything or care about anything except prestige. He wonÂ’t work for people because he already has his. I pointed out that it is more likely that this man isnÂ’t in it for his self interest because his self interest is already fully actualized. Romney already has everything he could possibly want and now he wants to work for others. Dad said he saw it that way but that isnÂ’t what many are saying in the taverns of rural Iowa. For my part, I havenÂ’t heard much of this. Of course I am a known partisan and not somebody people want to challenge to a political face-off. They might just be keeping it to themselves. Dad is also further out of town than I am. Iowa has and the rest of the plains states have that weird streak of liberalism called prairie populism. I doubt there is anywhere else in the world where the social strata is as flat as in the Northern Plains. My dad has never expected anyone to call him sir nor has he ever called anyone sir. He would be embarrassed to drive around in a new F-150 because people might think he is showing off. Nobody brags about what they have and if they have money, they try to keep it a secret. It is the law of the rural plains. What dad was hearing from the hanyaks in the taverns was that Romney is showy. He is a rich guy and rich guys arenÂ’t to be trusted; at least not rich guys who let you know they are rich. Everyone of these guys would be opposed to gay marriage, opposed to abortion, pro-military, pro-gun rights and of Christian sensibilities. DoesnÂ’t matter, their natural prairie populism makes them question anybody who they see as breaking the socialized rules of the classless society. Where does this leave Obama with these people? I donÂ’t know. It is a mystery. I donÂ’t see how he fits any better into their ethos, but they seem to accept him. Politically, Iowa is a very strange place.

Posted by: RD Walker at November 01, 2012 01:35 PM (6RtJb)

40 Romneys people are whip smart- you can bet that they have an alternate route to victory without Ohio and that is CO, IA and WI. They have more pieces on the chessboard to play with...that usually spells victory.

Posted by: jjshaka at November 01, 2012 01:35 PM (HD3v3)

41 27 >>I have actually never been to Iowa Corn. Corn-fed farm girls. Big Whitetail. Iowa is ok. --- Did anyone else read that as "corn-fed white farm girls with big tails"?

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at November 01, 2012 01:35 PM (e0xKF)

42 Jeez, Ace is getting optimistic. Why does that frighten me?

Posted by: davidinvirginia at November 01, 2012 01:35 PM (qEkGZ)

43 I don't think Nevada is going to happen, better to put effort into WI/MI/PA as an insurance against a narrow OH loss.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 01, 2012 01:35 PM (UypUQ)

44 ... wait for it ... wait for it .... wait .....

Posted by: Winston Wolf at November 01, 2012 01:35 PM (RuUvx)

45 What an exhausting election this has been. Almost there. Rest a few days, and then the real work begins.

Posted by: Soona at November 01, 2012 01:35 PM (16B11)

46 29 >>>>I want a sexy VP for once, not some old goat who doesn't even know where he's at.

Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 01, 2012 05:32 PM (DEEk/)

Excuse me?! Posted by: Cheney's War Cock
Sorry. Foreign policy is not as sexy as math is for me.

Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 01, 2012 01:36 PM (DEEk/)

Well allow me to cheer you up! Stand over by glory hole # 7 and I'll be with you in a jiffy!

Romney loses Ohio by 120 percent. Romney needs to spend all his money in PA and Rhode Island.

Posted by: Gerg channeling Hacktar at November 01, 2012 01:36 PM (YmPwQ)

48 Related, Nevada's largest paper: ‏@instapundit LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL EXCORIATES OBAMA AS Â“UNWORTHYÂ”: WOW. IÂ’ve never seen anything quite ... http://bit.ly/VfPcNA via @instapundit

Posted by: Y-not at November 01, 2012 01:36 PM (5H6zj)

49 My neighbor is calling Iowa for Romney... he seems pretty excited out Romney's prospects.. But..who knows. I think Romney takes Ohio and Wisconsin.

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at November 01, 2012 01:37 PM (DGIjM)

50 10 - three urban centers Iowa City, Des Moines and waterloo. Most are stocked with run off from Chicago. Iowa city is a liberal hell hole.

Posted by: gulfkraken at November 01, 2012 01:37 PM (oWaLO)

Here is my view from Nevada. Every Republican House and Senate candidate is up, 5 to 7 points over their democrat opponent. Yet we are to believe that all these people are going to vote republican for house and senate and still vote for Barry? ThatÂ’s not even remotely possible. Nevada is a sleeping giant. One thing that no one takes into account is not all democrats are voting for Barry.

Posted by: fingers crossed in Nevada at November 01, 2012 01:37 PM (uJK1E)

52 Politically, Iowa is a very strange place.

Posted by: RD Walker at November 01, 2012 05:35 PM (6RtJb)

Iowa has gotten addicted to the sweet drug of mattering in the Primaries. They have to swing to keep that going.

Posted by: Oldcat at November 01, 2012 01:38 PM (z1N6a)

53 And Slow Joe would win in the Senate and still be VP. They are the ones that decide VP.Paul loses. I cannot accept a tie. I want a sexy VP for once, not some old goat who doesn't even know where he's at. Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 01, 2012 05:32 PM (DEEk/) ---------------------- Nope. It's the newly elected Senators (and those that weren't up for election) that vote and the VP (Biden) has no vote splitting abilities when voting for the VP. So if Republicans get to 51, Ryan is in. If it's 50/50, I'm not sure what happens, but I do know Biden doesn't get to be VP.

Posted by: MrX at November 01, 2012 01:38 PM (PxmNZ)

54 Four hours?

This boner's gonna last a week!

Posted by: Uncle Mikey at November 01, 2012 01:38 PM (8qoXL)

55 Well, this weekend, Louis CK and SNL will team up to make Obama's final appeal to America.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 01, 2012 01:38 PM (QxSug)

56 I have so little respect for the "thinking" of most Iowans that if they come through I'll be shocked. OT, but Chris Christie is dead to me. I will hate that man with a fervent passion until I draw my dying breath, and absolutely nothing he does can change that nor lesson it.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee The Third at November 01, 2012 01:38 PM (SKX2R)

57 Yeah that Las Vegas Review Journal is brutal on obama and well worth a read. Skewers him for Benghazi too.

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 01, 2012 01:38 PM (9+ccr)

58 Damn. Scathing editorial.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at November 01, 2012 01:39 PM (Qz09z)

How is Romney "showy"?!?!?!?!?! He's about as humble as a politician can be, he hates talking about himself and he likes to help people under the radar.

Obama is rich, and he and his wife are the definition of "showy"

Things like that drive me insane.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at November 01, 2012 01:39 PM (YmPwQ)

60 Related, Nevada's largest paper:

‏@instapundit
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL EXCORIATES OBAMA AS Â“UNWORTHYÂ”: WOW. IÂ’ve never seen anything quite ... http://bit.ly/VfPcNA via @instapundit

That's not an editorial; it's an ass-ripping. Me likey.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at November 01, 2012 01:39 PM (QKKT0)

61 Â“Romney is too damned rich.Â” You know what my comeback would be? Who on earth could beat Obama's $1Billion campaign machine?

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 01:39 PM (LpQbZ)

GET OUT THE VOTE!

Or these bastards will find a way to win:

Posted by: OHIO Democratic vote creators at November 01, 2012 01:39 PM (zLp5I)

63 That's not an editorial; it's an ass-ripping. Me likey. --- Me too. I LIKE it rough!

Posted by: Barry Cakeboy at November 01, 2012 01:39 PM (e0xKF)

64 >>>Sorry. Foreign policy is not as sexy as math is for me.

Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 01, 2012 05:36 PM (DEEk/)

Here's some math for you.

Posted by: Cheney's War Cock at November 01, 2012 01:39 PM (Zs83Q)

65 So in a good number of these polls, Romney is winning Independents by high single-digits or low to mid double-digits, but it's 'tied' or 'Obama's winning' because the Dem turnout sample is allegedly going to be higher in 2012 than in 2008. Umm, okay.

How in the hell do these pollsters even save face after this type of fraud?

It's beyond shameful. I don't know even have a word for what this type of behavior is.

Posted by: laceyunderalls at November 01, 2012 01:40 PM (pLTLS)

66 Did anyone else read that as "corn-fed white farm girls with big tails"? Close enough. http://tinyurl.com/bgskbbc

Posted by: BCochran1981 at November 01, 2012 01:40 PM (GEICT)

LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL EXCORIATES OBAMA AS Â“UNWORTHYÂ”: WOW. IÂ’ve
never seen anything quite ... http://bit.ly/VfPcNA via @instapundit

That's not an editorial; it's an ass-ripping. Me likey.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at November 01, 2012 05:39 PM (QKKT0)

Someone else posted this earlier.

GO READ IT!!!

Posted by: OHIO Democratic vote creators at November 01, 2012 01:40 PM (zLp5I)

68 Iowa is the bag. The President is going there Monday just to see his love child.

I doubt he even speak.

Posted by: Greg, Nate Silver's love child at November 01, 2012 01:40 PM (wR+pz)

69 Politically, Iowa is a very strange place.

Posted by: RD Walker at November 01, 2012 05:35 PM (6RtJb)

I grew up in South Sioux City (Neb), attended 1 year at Iowa State University (won't release the transcripts, but I ended up in 'Nam), and then got my career started in Omaha (across the river from Council Bluffs).

Strange is an understatement.

Posted by: jwb7605 at November 01, 2012 01:41 PM (Qxe/p)

70 52. I wonder about this too. Saw something a couple days ago that Romney was polling 16% of White Democrats in swing states ...which I figured translated to about 8-10 % of the Democrat vote. If this is really accurate , the Midwest should be painted Red on Tuesday.

Posted by: jjshaka at November 01, 2012 01:41 PM (HD3v3)

71 Oh no BCochran, you know of corn fed white girls with big tails? What is Florida raising nowadays?

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 01, 2012 01:41 PM (HiC8z)

72 Mailed my Dad's ballot yesterday.

Posted by: Ed Anger at November 01, 2012 01:41 PM (tOkJB)

73 Nevada will go for Obama. Too many unions and not enough Mormons to tip it our way, unfortunately.

Posted by: Kiki at November 01, 2012 01:41 PM (2tIXp)

74 Polling people in IA and NV is one thing, getting them to go to the polling place and actually pull the lever is another. When dem enthusiasm is down 10-15 percent, you can't tell me these places aren't leaning heavily towards Romney.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at November 01, 2012 01:42 PM (AD7g/)

75 What is Florida raising nowadays? Coeds and cheerleaders.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at November 01, 2012 01:42 PM (GEICT)

76 I suppose we can forgive them that Righthaven thing now.

I'll pay for a dozen copies of the LVRJ for Harry Reid's offices.

Posted by: JEM at November 01, 2012 01:42 PM (o+SC1)

77
How does Obama even compete in this state? I mean, in California, people are left-wing, so it makes sense. But Iowa? Somebody explain.

Big gov't loving honkeys: "Oh noes! Republicans might stop subsidizing our fat asses! Republicans might stop the corn price-inflation caused by ethanol in gasoline! 11!"

Posted by: wooga at November 01, 2012 01:42 PM (vjyZP)

78 Joe Biden's campaigning in Fort Dodge today. That should tip a few votes toward Romney.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at November 01, 2012 01:43 PM (ZKzrr)

79
GGGGGGGGG RRRRRRRRRR EEEEEEEEE GGGGGGGGGG
GG________ RR______RR EE________ GG________
GG_____GGG RRRRRRRR_ EEEEEEEEEE GG_____GGG
GG______GG RR___RR___ EE________ GG______GG
GGGGGGGGG RR_____RRR EEEEEEEEEE GGGGGGGGG

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at November 01, 2012 01:43 PM (ovpNn)

80 LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL EXCORIATES OBAMA AS Â“UNWORTHYÂ”: WOW. IÂ’ve
never seen anything quite ... http://bit.ly/VfPcNA via @instapundit

That's not an editorial; it's an ass-ripping. Me likey.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at November 01, 2012 05:39 PM (QKKT0)

------------------------------------------------

I have a liberal friend in Vegas who's going to be very disturbed with this turn of events.

Posted by: Soona at November 01, 2012 01:43 PM (16B11)

81 we need a reality check to make sure we aren't all deluded about polls like we (ok, I) were in 2008. Maybe the absence of viable green party candidate will up the D in the DRI to where it is now. Maybe the influx of, gosh, about 10 million new Americans in last 4 years also pushed DRI up as they think america=food stamps? Maybe bigbird binders with bayonettes actually worked?

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 01, 2012 01:43 PM (QxSug)

82 "To return to office a narcissistic amateur who seeks to ride this nation's economy and international esteem to oblivion, like Slim Pickens riding the nuclear bomb to its target at the end of the movie "Dr. Strangelove," would be disastrous."

That's gonna leave a mark

Posted by: Dept. Of Accuracy Dept. at November 01, 2012 01:44 PM (+I8Mq)

83 27 >>I have actuallynever been to Iowa Corn-fed farm girls. With big, bouncing baby lambs?

Posted by: rickb223 at November 01, 2012 01:44 PM (GgIA9)

84 After reading that Henninger piece in the WSJ this morning, I'm convinced more than ever that this is in the bag for Romney, and he will sweep more swing states than expected. The margins O won on in some were not that big, and if the evangelicals come on board (which it seems they have with a mighty roar), then we got this. I think dicky morris is right. Landslide. Rove is right. Etc. And, this is why Romney is smiling 24/7. He has been meeting and speaking with Evangelicals throughout his campaign. He's got them. O has not.

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 01:44 PM (LpQbZ)

85 "65 >>>Sorry. Foreign policy is not as sexy as math is for me.

Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 01, 2012 05:36 PM (DEEk/)

Here's some math for you.

Posted by: Cheney's War Cock "

Awwwwww.....you're a giver, aren't you?

Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 01, 2012 01:45 PM (DEEk/)

86 Romney will get over 300 EVs. Book it.

Posted by: angler at November 01, 2012 01:45 PM (SwjAj)

>>What is Florida raising nowadays?

Latina Porn Starlets

Posted by: garrett at November 01, 2012 01:45 PM (oAY+A)

88 Reporting from Iowa... http://tinyurl.com/9wv8p3y

Posted by: RD Walker at November 01, 2012 01:46 PM (6RtJb)

89 Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at November 01, 2012 05:43 PM (ovpNn) == hehe

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 01:46 PM (LpQbZ)

90 67 Did anyone else read that as "corn-fed white farm girls with big tails"?

Close enough.

http://tinyurl.com/bgskbbc

Posted by: BCochran1981 at November 01, 2012 05:40 PM (GEICT)

Be careful. Very careful, those girls will fuck your brains out.

Posted by: John Edwards, scumbag at November 01, 2012 01:46 PM (wR+pz)

91 >>What is Florida raising nowadays? Tomorrow's felons.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at November 01, 2012 01:46 PM (Qz09z)

92 I don't trust Nevada at all.

HUGE load of Paultards in that state. Makes me sick.

Posted by: Uncle Mikey at November 01, 2012 01:46 PM (8qoXL)

93 27 >>I have actually never been to Iowa Its really pretty to the west... rolling hills. Gorgeous.

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at November 01, 2012 01:46 PM (DGIjM)

94 Argghhhh!!!!! Put Helen Thomas back up in the side-bar!!!!!!!

Posted by: LGoPs at November 01, 2012 01:47 PM (BJVEF)

95
Don't forget the blacks that won't vote because of Oblather's gay marriage support.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 01, 2012 01:47 PM (PHb2k)

96 So in a good number of these polls, Romney is winning Independents by high single-digits or low to mid double-digits, but it's 'tied' or 'Obama's winning' because the Dem turnout sample is allegedly going to be higher in 2012 than in 2008. Umm, okay.

How in the hell do these pollsters even save face after this type of fraud?

It's beyond shameful. I don't know even have a word for what this type of behavior is.

Posted by: laceyunderalls at November 01, 2012 05:40 PM (pLTLS)

"Normal"

Posted by: Oldcat at November 01, 2012 01:47 PM (z1N6a)

97 That endorsement, excoriation sounds as rabid as something that Rolling Stone did lambasting W in 2004. Which is to say, awesome, in that it's coming from a respected newsource, not a fanboy mag for lefties. Right?

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 01, 2012 01:47 PM (QxSug)

98 Polling people in IA and NV is one thing, getting them to go to the polling place and actually pull the lever is another. When dem enthusiasm is down 10-15 percent, you can't tell me these places aren't leaning heavily towards Romney.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at November 01, 2012 05:42 PM (AD7g/)

-----------------------------------------------------

The physical spectres of the SCOAMT's economy slap every citizen of LV in the face on a daily basis.

Posted by: Soona at November 01, 2012 01:47 PM (16B11)

99 I might have to move to Iowa.

http://tinyurl.com/atrjxdb

Posted by: Adam at November 01, 2012 01:47 PM (/YJYi)

100

My neighbor is calling Iowa for Romney... he seems pretty excited out Romney's prospects..
But..who knows.

I think Romney takes Ohio and Wisconsin.

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at November 01, 2012 05:37 PM (DGIjM)

Minnesota will be a tough slog. It is close. But every statewide office and both senate seats are in Democrat / DFL hands. This was after we took the state House and Senate both in 2010. It may come down to a few hundred votes just like Franken-putz in 08 and Mark "brave Sir Robin" Dayton in 2010.

The Twin Cities are just too much. We need to turn them more Republican.

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at November 01, 2012 01:47 PM (zLp5I)

101 99 That endorsement, excoriation sounds as rabid as something that Rolling Stone did lambasting W in 2004.

Which is to say, awesome, in that it's coming from a respected newsource, not a fanboy mag for lefties. Right?

_______

The LVRJ *is* a mag for lefties!

Posted by: Uncle Mikey at November 01, 2012 01:48 PM (8qoXL)

102 Been to Hairy Mary's in Des Moines once.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at November 01, 2012 01:48 PM (Qz09z)

103 **When Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney promptly criticized the security failures in Benghazi, the White House and its lapdog media jumped all over him for another "gaffe," for speaking out too promptly and too strongly. Prompt and strong action from the White House on Sept. 11 might have saved American lives, as well as America's reputation as a nation not to be messed with. ** whoa, better said than anything we heard Romney or Ryan say

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 01, 2012 01:48 PM (QxSug)

104 He he hahahahaha....wipeout!

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at November 01, 2012 01:49 PM (GrtrJ)

105

"Joe Biden's campaigning in Fort Dodge today."

Is that where the Alamo is?

Posted by: Joey R. Biden at November 01, 2012 01:49 PM (DEEk/)

106

Romney will get over 300 EVs. Book it.

THIS! IS!

ELECTION DAY!!!

Posted by: fluffeneidas at November 01, 2012 01:49 PM (O6q63)

107 ot gosh, it's cold here making a pot roast smells wonderful

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 01:49 PM (LpQbZ)

108 has anyone factored the Mormon effect into NV?

Posted by: ever seen an unorganized Mormon Mission? at November 01, 2012 01:49 PM (zLp5I)

109 >>>I might have to move to Iowa. I f---ing hate Iowa. And the Iowan girlfriends I've had have only made me hate Iowa more. The lowest of the low in terms of "mind". Loving Obama on the one hand, but liking Mike Huckabee on the other. What. The. Hell?

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee The Third at November 01, 2012 01:51 PM (SKX2R)

110

Did anyone else read that as "corn-fed white farm girls with big tails"?

Close enough.

http://tinyurl.com/bgskbbc

Posted by: BCochran1981 at November 01, 2012 05:40 PM (GEICT)

---------------------------------------------

Okay. I believe you. You really have released the Rack-en.

Posted by: Soona at November 01, 2012 01:51 PM (16B11)

111 We'll know if Obama is sure he's going to lose. He'll give it away. Maybe his wife will. They're both too petulant to fake it.

Posted by: Othered at November 01, 2012 01:51 PM (EuW9O)

112 105 Don't blame the Obama administration. They were too busy dealing with (and even preparing for) Romney's gaffe. As for the Media, they're just doing their job: Watchdogs of the Democrat Party.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 01, 2012 01:51 PM (aSf5o)

113 Then, that's a blue dog, Reagan democrat turning up their noses at Obama. And just think, no one really talked about Obama's economic thuggery or a ton of other issues, Romney chose just to run on competence.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 01, 2012 01:52 PM (QxSug)

114 Ace borrowed AtC's stompyboots. Sorta nood up.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at November 01, 2012 01:52 PM (GEICT)

115 I have Romney at 290.. SCOAMF at 248. Romney takes FL/VA/Ohio/WI/CO/NH and one in Maine. Obama.. Iowa, PA, NV

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at November 01, 2012 01:52 PM (DGIjM)

116

>>Romney is showy

Compared to that champagne wall at the Jay Z fundraiser???

Gack.

Can you print a couple thousand pics of that and put them around the state by Tuesday?

Just asking...

Posted by: Mama AJ at November 01, 2012 01:52 PM (SUKHu)

117 I keep looking at the Ohio EV numbers and Ohio poll internals. I'm sorry, I just can't see how Romney loses it.

I know it is what we are supposed to be worrying about, but it looks more solid to me than Wisconsin.

I just don't get the angst.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 01, 2012 01:52 PM (USExO)

118 17 "That actually gets him to a 269-269 tie, but then Romney would win in the House."

And Slow Joe would win in the Senate and still be VP. They are the ones that decide VP.Paul loses. I cannot accept a tie. I want a sexy VP for once, not some old goat who doesn't even know where he's at. --- Then i have Jill execute Mitt and i pardon her. I am an evil genius....and president to be. [insert diabolical laughter]

Posted by: No so slow Joe at November 01, 2012 01:53 PM (kzejo)

119 How does Obama even compete in this state? I mean, in California, people are left-wing, so it makes sense. But Iowa? Somebody explain.

1) More octogenarians than Florida (by percentage), think they're still voting for FDR.
2) A third of the new babies my dad sees have foreign-born parents (who may or may not have legal residence; you can't ask).
3) U of Iowa: Berkeley without the engineering. All Iowa colleges have huge numbers of students from Illinois, for various reasons.
4) Eastern Iowa cities are full of refugees from Chicago...single mom brings her kids out to take advantage of "diversity" in hiring and public housing, kids bring the culture with them.
5) If you have land, you can make a lot of money doing nothing by letting people put windmills on it.
6) Everyone knows Romney hates the Gheys...Iowa is the only state they can get married outside New England.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at November 01, 2012 01:53 PM (ZKzrr)

120 117 People shouldn't just expect others to feed them information.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 01, 2012 01:54 PM (aSf5o)

121 SG the Wee go away.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 01, 2012 01:54 PM (HiC8z)

122 I just don't get the angst.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 01, 2012 05:52 PM (USExO)

They want RCP to turn them red, which will never happen. There are what, 15 'toss up' states now?

Posted by: Oldcat at November 01, 2012 01:54 PM (z1N6a)

123 Iowa was ok before they started bringing in "vibrant" people from Illinois and overseas. Gotta get that diversity in everywhere, you know.

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at November 01, 2012 01:55 PM (BuSM8)

124 121 I keep looking at the Ohio EV numbers and Ohio poll internals. I'm sorry, I just can't see how Romney loses it. I know it is what we are supposed to be worrying about, but it looks more solid to me than Wisconsin. I just don't get the angst. Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 01, 2012 05:52 PM (USExO) You "get" the math. You understand it. The rest of us rely on other's determinations. It can be...unsettling. The surgeon says its routine, nothing to worry about. The patient is still nervous.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at November 01, 2012 01:55 PM (GEICT)

125 62 degrees and sunny in downtown S.F.

Posted by: SFGoth at November 01, 2012 01:56 PM (dZ756)

126 Bad haiku 5 days.

Posted by: Kindle Opus Anarcus at November 01, 2012 01:57 PM (v6Iz7)

127 You "get" the math. You understand it. The rest of us rely on other's determinations. It can be...unsettling. The surgeon says its routine, nothing to worry about. The patient is still nervous.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at November 01, 2012 05:55 PM (GEICT)

Y'all need to consider the source of these things before you get worked up about it. If the data don't make sense, reject the bad input.

Posted by: Oldcat at November 01, 2012 01:58 PM (z1N6a)

128 I've got Romney at 341.

Posted by: SFGoth at November 01, 2012 01:58 PM (dZ756)

129 Loving Obama on the one hand, but liking Mike Huckabee on the other.

They're exactly the same, you know, except one justifies his fascism with the Bible and the other with Mao/Marx.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at November 01, 2012 01:59 PM (ZKzrr)

130 Y'all need to consider the source of these things before you get worked up about it. If the data don't make sense, reject the bad input. Absolutely. But it doesn't matter how good the surgeon is, you're still going to be nervous going in.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at November 01, 2012 02:00 PM (GEICT)

131

Paul Ryan is headed to PA Saturday, and Romney is reported to be headed to philly burbs on Sunday. If Romney does get here, that rally will be attended by a thundering herd.

Posted by: kallisto at November 01, 2012 02:04 PM (jm/9g)

132 Listening to Obama on Spec Rep. He sounds like a fucking idiot.

Posted by: Kindle Opus Anarcus at November 01, 2012 02:06 PM (v6Iz7)

133 I'm not really all that familiar with this blog or Ace but it seems to me that the commenters posting here seem very confident of a Romney victory. I am quite suprised by that attitude because I think Obama has a pretty good chance of winning maybe 50/50

Posted by: Joe at November 01, 2012 02:18 PM (mcWjj)

134 Yahoo "News" is trying to convince me that Obama has Iowa all sewn up and that we should just cancel the election.

Posted by: d_fitz at November 01, 2012 02:23 PM (vu3g7)

135 Posted by: Joe at November 01, 2012 06:18 PM (mcWjj) REALLY ?? Posted by: Joe at November 01, 2012 06:18 PM (mcWjj) You were here on the 18 of Oct

Posted by: Evilpens at November 01, 2012 02:24 PM (ck76k)

136 Did the blogger here refer to PA '08 as a "surprisingly narrow loss?" Or am I seeing things? FYI, Cochise, PA in '08 was a wipeout. The losing margin for McCain in PA was greater than the losing margin for McCain nationally. That aside, it's not illogical for Romney to be campaigning in PA. It's a big state. If Romney has the EC locked up the popular vote then becomes important.

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at November 01, 2012 02:27 PM (pmsMR)

137

I guess I was. What about it.

Posted by: Joe at November 01, 2012 02:28 PM (mcWjj)

138 A little Wisconsin info... The dems have failed in their 3 attempts to win an important election in this state (Walker, Senate recalls, State supreme court.) Obama was in Green Bay toady, Milwaukee Saturday and just announced, Madison on Monday with Bruce Springsteen. You know the old rule, watch where they go in the last few days. Romney in PA, Obama in WI. That's a big problem for O

Posted by: Badger Red at November 01, 2012 02:43 PM (IGOqg)

139 We're going to win VA, FL, NC, IA, CO, OH. Everything else (NH, WI, NV) is just gravy!

Posted by: DC Zombie at November 01, 2012 02:45 PM (EZ3C3)

140 The Obama campaign is panicking, and you can see it in the way they are turning out their most reliable, most likely voters long before Election Day. They are using their highest propensity voters to pad their absentee and early vote numbers

I was specifically targeted by OFA with an early vote themed robo call today clearly designed for a registered Dem recipient.

This is the 3rd contact OFA has made with me (ignoring a bin full of mailings) pushing early voting since I registered as a Dem.

Posted by: @PurpAv at November 01, 2012 02:46 PM (n1f2c)

141 You know the old rule, watch where they go in the last few days. Romney in PA, Obama in WI.

-- Obama is filling sandbags
-- Romney is the hurricane

Posted by: @PurpAv at November 01, 2012 02:48 PM (n1f2c)

142 I keep hearing that the Dems are cannibalizing likely votes and Repubs are getting low probability voters out in early votes. I'd love for that to be true, but is there any solid evidence that it is so? I mean, how does one know those things?

Posted by: Aaron at November 01, 2012 02:53 PM (Tlix5)

143 143 We're going to win VA, FL, NC, IA, CO, OH. Everything else (NH, WI, NV) is just gravy!

I think we win NH and WI, which actually means Ohio is just gravy. (But delicious.)

Posted by: P.M. at November 01, 2012 03:11 PM (DEK54)

144 zzz

Posted by: Gerry at November 01, 2012 03:52 PM (mBTSB)

145

McCain's states + IN = 191 EV

add FL, NC, VA -> 248 EV

add OH -> 266 EV; add CO and WI instead -> 267 EV

So you basically need OH, or CO + WI, plus any other state. Even NH (4 EV) would do, but IA and NV are getting attention, too. If Romney wins OH, then CO will serve this purpose.

CO seems like it's going for Romney. I'm optimistic about OH and WI, but EITHER ONE will do. If VA doesn't come through, OH and WI might both be needed (or pull off a real coup in MI or PA).

If you consider OH and WI as 50/50 shots, then Romney has at least a 75% chance of winning this thing (assuming he gets that extra "small" state, which seems pretty likely).

Romney's got this.

Posted by: Optimizer at November 01, 2012 03:52 PM (Mxt9o)

146 Even if we lose Ohio (which I don't think we will) it could just as easily come down to Wisconsin and either Iowa and New Hampshire (and yes, Iowa I think we'll win). let's just say Obama gets NM, OH, MI, PA, NV let's just say Romney gets FL, CO, AZ, NC, VA (which are all likely scenarios) That leaves NH, IA and WI with a 261-257 lead for SCoaMF. Losing either NH or IA is no big deal... losing both spells a Romney loss. Losing WI spells a Romney loss. However this is just basing it on popular, media poll numbers and not internal. I think we'll be pleasantly surprised in a few short days. I'm hoping we top 300 electoral votes and have a great remainder of the year making fun of our liberal acquaintances.

Posted by: skinnydipinacid at November 01, 2012 03:54 PM (pHtWf)

147

I want the JEF out so bad I can taste it, but it worries the hell out of me that this election is this close. The bastard whoreson had NOTHING to campaign on. His four years have been nothing but unrelieved misery and failure. How can we have so many stupid people who could completely ignore Downgrade's record and still vote for him?

Even if Romney gets elected, we're in deep trouble. We need to start deporting or disenfranchising the FSA, and we need to do it on day one of a Romney administration.

Posted by: mac at November 01, 2012 10:24 PM (kMDer)

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