June 26, 2012
— Ace Only 20%? They say they still stick to their prediction that a slow, weak recovery is the most likely scenario.
Meanwhile, at Gallup and Rasmussen, consumer confidence falls.
Let me admit to my own cocooning: I was surprised when I saw those graphs that the consumer confidence numbers were as high as they were. Still in negative territory, but not nearly as negative as they'd been in 2011. And, until recently, you can see the trendline marching upwards, if slowly.
That's a good example of me blinding myself to contrary data points. I have been frustrated in my failure to understand why Obama's approval ratings were as high as they were; well, part of that frustration is self-inflicted. I didn't buy the "recovery" meme, but I also blinded myself to the fact that most of the country seemed to buy it. At least, they bought it some.
On the other hand, my cocooning is at least not unique. Analysts and media keep having to note "unexpected" drops in hiring and growth because they never seemed to take into account the significant downside risks in this false recovery, either.
I'll try to keep that in mind -- about cocooning myself -- but, honestly, I'll probably forget before the next post.
And all that said -- public opinion and actual economic data seem to be falling to the level of my cocoon.
BTW: Britain's been in a double-dip since the beginning of the year. Europe as a whole is as well.
Flashback:
And... Well, people are catching up to me, anyway. Charlie Cook says this is going to be a hard election for Obama to win.
ItÂ’s also pretty clear that, despite a ray of sunshine earlier this year, the economy isnÂ’t looking as bright today as it did in February and March. The global economic picture is depressing, with even the previously shining lights such as China, India, and Brazil experiencing slowdowns. The eurozone is in a recession that looks more deep than mild, and its sovereign-debt and banking crises are getting worse, not better. Domestically, there is cause for far more concern than would have been warranted at the beginning of this year. While the painful deleveraging process always dictated a slow recovery, economists are scrambling to revise their forecasts of economic growth to reflect the downward trend. The most frequently quoted number for gross domestic product is now 2 percent growth. Not that long ago, some forecasts had approached 3 percent. Unemployment is not expected to improve between now and the election. No incumbent wants to see an unemployment rate at 8 percent or higher. Franklin D. Roosevelt was the last to survive it in the Oval Office.Of course, the economy was in a recession when Obama took the oath of office and worsened before he could possibly have done anything to turn it around. But itÂ’s equally true that every month a president is in office, he takes on a little more ownership of the situation he inherited, whatever it is. By the time the incumbent gets four years in, if things are getting better, he will get credit or the blame, deserved or not. Reminders that it all went to hell on a different president and partyÂ’s watch doesnÂ’t change that.
If the economy is much different in October and November than now, itÂ’s more likely to be worse than better....
We are past the point where Obama can win a referendum election, regardless of whether it is on him or the economy.
His prescription for Obama is to go negative and poison Romney's image. It's the only play left to him.
Posted by: Ace at
10:40 AM
| Comments (236)
Post contains 620 words, total size 4 kb.
Posted by: Cicero at June 26, 2012 10:41 AM (QKKT0)
Posted by: scofflawx at June 26, 2012 10:42 AM (IhBRY)
Don't you need some sort of recovery for a Double Dip?
Posted by: garrett at June 26, 2012 10:42 AM (GJoG6)
Posted by: soothsayer at June 26, 2012 10:43 AM (/eLjI)
Posted by: maddogg at June 26, 2012 10:43 AM (OlN4e)
Posted by: Sandra Fluke's Health Tips at June 26, 2012 10:43 AM (GJoG6)
No jokes fellow 'Rons and 'Ettes. This is a Serious Shit question.
Posted by: John P. Squibob at June 26, 2012 10:44 AM (kqqGm)
Posted by: ace at June 26, 2012 10:44 AM (aw5Tx)
Posted by: soothsayer at June 26, 2012 10:44 AM (xhzWP)
Posted by: nickless at June 26, 2012 10:45 AM (MMC8r)
Posted by: Roy at June 26, 2012 10:45 AM (VndSC)
Posted by: tasker at June 26, 2012 10:45 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: The Huggable Robot Devil at June 26, 2012 10:46 AM (DNTer)
Posted by: Anna Puma at June 26, 2012 10:46 AM (5bbv1)
Posted by: Bill D. Cat at June 26, 2012 10:46 AM (npr0X)
Posted by: Dr Spank at June 26, 2012 10:46 AM (I/Xad)
"You! Yes, you behind the bikesheds, stand still laddy!"
Posted by: TheQuietMan at June 26, 2012 10:47 AM (1Jaio)
Posted by: The Huggable Robot Devil at June 26, 2012 10:47 AM (DNTer)
Posted by: tasker at June 26, 2012 10:47 AM (r2PLg)
So a few days then? Oh c'mon, it was hanging right there!
I don't think what you did was cocooning so much as reviewing actual reality then looking at the polls and going what the actual fuck?
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at June 26, 2012 10:47 AM (Gk3SS)
We are in a depression, and remain there.
People in general tend to get used to their current situations at the expense of remembering how things used to be. Overall I think it's a necessary condition for survival in a hostile landscape. If one has survived under certain conditions long enough, they become "normal" so that they can be ignored as stimuli so that "not normal" conditions can be filtered out for attention when they arise.
Posted by: cranky-d at June 26, 2012 10:48 AM (GsXbZ)
Posted by: nickless at June 26, 2012 10:48 AM (MMC8r)
Posted by: Anna Puma at June 26, 2012 10:48 AM (5bbv1)
Posted by: Reno_Dave at June 26, 2012 10:48 AM (OL4L4)
We've had some of the biggest tornadoes we ever get....on the days when the Weather Channel says....."20% chance of rain".
Posted by: wheatie at June 26, 2012 10:49 AM (0T8H7)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 26, 2012 10:50 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: maddogg at June 26, 2012 10:50 AM (OlN4e)
Posted by: Bill from Chappaqua at June 26, 2012 10:50 AM (Bxm/r)
Posted by: Barky O at June 26, 2012 10:50 AM (NuPNl)
Posted by: Mr Pink at June 26, 2012 10:50 AM (MOqbH)
Posted by: tasker at June 26, 2012 10:50 AM (r2PLg)
9 Double Dipping can lead to bladder infections. Posted by: Sandra Fluke's Health Tips
Only if it's double dipping and back again.
Posted by: imp at June 26, 2012 10:51 AM (UaxA0)
I thought the ruling was Thursday.
Posted by: Dr Spank at June 26, 2012 10:51 AM (I/Xad)
One thing that will help the economy is the money fleeing Europe and China for the US. That will be a bubble supporting the dollar and driving down inflation despite Geithner and Bernanke printing dollars like mad.
It is not that we are doing better, we are doing less bad than the rest of world is right now.
Posted by: rd at June 26, 2012 10:51 AM (9sUlj)
Posted by: tasker at June 26, 2012 10:51 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at June 26, 2012 10:51 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Anna Puma at June 26, 2012 10:52 AM (5bbv1)
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at June 26, 2012 10:52 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at June 26, 2012 10:53 AM (ZDP2l)
The reason is the exponential growth in new regulation begining in 2009 after the Obamnites got started.
Posted by: Vic at June 26, 2012 10:53 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: lolobama at June 26, 2012 10:54 AM (TXseM)
dump em down a steep rocky hillside,
See some of them bounce high?
Then keep tear-assing right down the hill.
Posted by: DaveA at June 26, 2012 10:54 AM (EyTMo)
I am reminded of the second Reagan recession, circa 1982. Some areas of the country were doing quite well while others were not. We are seeing something similar today, and some areas will continue to lag as they have been severely damaged by Democrat state govts.
What's different (if I'm right, after 40 years in real estate) is we are looking at about 10 more years of uneven regional recovery and slippage, in fits and starts. Things start to look markedly better around 2022 into 2025 due to demographics. Until then, there are opportunities, but you will have to be nimble and brave.
If we could elect a true energy-friendly president, things could be a good deal better. Without that, things will be somewhat worse. I see energy development as the hinge we swing on....
Posted by: Meremortal at June 26, 2012 10:55 AM (Usk3+)
Posted by: Friedman at June 26, 2012 10:55 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: Mr Pink at June 26, 2012 02:50 PM (MOqbH)
You're ahead of yourself. (And so excited that you want multiple M's.) The ruling is on Thursday.
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at June 26, 2012 10:56 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Max Power at June 26, 2012 10:56 AM (q177U)
Hi I read Ace a lot - sometimes order from Amazon thru Ace...
The mild upswing in consumer confidence is there because the public senses that they are going to throw Obama out of office. Hence cautious hope and optimism.
The economy is down because people are planning to do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to help the economy so long as the O is a resident of 1600. No person who owns wealth will re-invest it in the current climate.
If you doubt that - look to Brooklyn where Dems lost a special election and look at the growing number of DEMS Running harder to get away from Obama than they are running for re-election. There are lots of other anecdotes and subtle observations that point to O losing.
Look at it another way, what major electoral event have the Dems won since Obama was President?
What has happened to change that trend?
Posted by: NVA Patriot at June 26, 2012 10:57 AM (OCN5i)
Posted by: soothsayer at June 26, 2012 10:57 AM (+wb5e)
Posted by: Wilford Brimley wants to know where Ace lives at June 26, 2012 10:57 AM (zuDcH)
Posted by: Kudlow and/or Cramer at June 26, 2012 10:57 AM (eHIJJ)
I haven't bought the recovery meme since 2008/09. All a person has to do, if they travel even short distances, is look around and talk to people to know that recovery is the last thing on people's lips.
As I've said several times; even a short course in statistics will teach you that one can gerrymander numbers any way one wishes. And that goes for polls too.
Posted by: Soona at June 26, 2012 10:58 AM (jtdSY)
It's easier to come back later and call it "unexpected"....when things turn downward.....than to get blamed for helping to cause the downturn by saying, "things are going to get worse".
Posted by: wheatie at June 26, 2012 10:58 AM (0T8H7)
Posted by: MoeRon at June 26, 2012 10:59 AM (yWDpP)
One bright spot in the housing sector is the Chinese buying houses in the US and Canada.
Almost like they want a safe haven if something goes bad back home.
England is also seeing some of the same home buying from people relocating from France after the French went socialist.
There is also a lot of money on the move from Greece, Spain, and Italy.
Posted by: rd at June 26, 2012 10:59 AM (9sUlj)
Posted by: rd at June 26, 2012 02:59 PM (9sUlj)
Only sensible. Hopefully some of that money will park its ass here. Metaphorically, of course.
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at June 26, 2012 11:01 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at June 26, 2012 11:01 AM (ZDP2l)
I mean, isn't HE the FIRST campaign EVER to spend a BILLION DOLLARS?
Hmmmmm.....whiny ass bitch.
Posted by: © Sponge at June 26, 2012 11:01 AM (UK9cE)
Posted by: tasker at June 26, 2012 11:01 AM (r2PLg)
http://tinyurl.com/2vxttnz
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 11:02 AM (oZfic)
Posted by: Sandra Fluke's Health Tips at June 26, 2012 02:43 PM (GJoG6)
As can ATV. That's a no no without proper cleansing techniques prior.
Posted by: © Sponge at June 26, 2012 11:03 AM (UK9cE)
That's all wrong. Everyone knows what the prescription is ...
Posted by: Legendary Producer Bruce Dickinson at June 26, 2012 11:03 AM (KF/Jh)
Posted by: soothsayer at June 26, 2012 11:03 AM (uff2W)
Ace spends his time away from the keyboard, in one of those alien pod-things, at the bottom of a specially treated swimming pool?
Tuesdays and Thursdays Jazzercise Class is replaced by Aqua Aerobics at the local YMCA...
and the 'Special Treatment' is a myth to keep Ace from urinating in the pool. It won't turn the water red. They just tell him that.
Posted by: garrett at June 26, 2012 11:03 AM (GJoG6)
Posted by: Chicago Voter at June 26, 2012 11:04 AM (qAGZa)
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at June 26, 2012 11:04 AM (ZDP2l)
Just point to this:
Summary of Jobs Bills Stalled in the Senate
18 f'in bills passed by the GOP House that the Senate is sitting on. 18.
Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at June 26, 2012 11:04 AM (famk3)
Posted by: Cicero at June 26, 2012 11:05 AM (QKKT0)
70
One bright spot in the housing sector is the Chinese buying houses in the US and Canada.
Almost like they want a safe haven if something goes bad back home.
That didn't work out too well for the Japanese....when they did that back in the 80's.
On the whole, they lost a lot of money doing that.
Posted by: wheatie at June 26, 2012 11:05 AM (0T8H7)
Posted by: chuck in st paul at June 26, 2012 11:05 AM (EhYdw)
That is something you can say almost every year. There is an annual cycle of activity which is the basis for the "Sell and May and stay away" aphorism.
Posted by: SpongeBob Saget at June 26, 2012 11:06 AM (SDkq3)
Well not really. did you see the link I posted in the other thread from the AP? About the army of attorneys? Knew about this and finally a linkable source reported on it.
What are they expecting that they need the army?
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 11:07 AM (oZfic)
Posted by: SpongeBob Saget at June 26, 2012 11:08 AM (SDkq3)
When all else fails, the villain poisons the well. Still doesn't work.
Posted by: Mr_Write at June 26, 2012 11:09 AM (VJUQK)
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 11:09 AM (oZfic)
It is very common to predict recessions that don't happen, and to miss recoveries until they are too obvious too ignore. When an economy is in retreat, most people can't imagine it getting better, especially when it's a depression like this.
But even the Great Depression ended. This depression will end too. It will end with a group of fits and starts over 10 years. That's going on now. And remember, the biggest fortunes are made during bad times, and cashed in (by the wise) during good times while others blow themselves up with over and mal-investment as an economy peaks.
Posted by: Meremortal at June 26, 2012 11:10 AM (Usk3+)
Which is why it's important to call out the Dems on every. single. lie.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 26, 2012 11:11 AM (8y9MW)
*Father of the Year and Nobel Prize winner are worth about two dead flies.
Posted by: Fritz at June 26, 2012 11:11 AM (ZN5qR)
Posted by: Kinder, gentler Obama campaign commercials at June 26, 2012 11:11 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: BurtTC at June 26, 2012 11:11 AM (TOk1P)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 26, 2012 11:11 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 11:12 AM (oZfic)
42
One thing that will help the economy is the money fleeing Europe and China for the US. That will be a bubble supporting the dollar and driving down inflation despite Geithner and Bernanke printing dollars like mad.
It is not that we are doing better, we are doing less bad than the rest of world is right now.
That's it exactly! BTW, Dick's Sporting goods has a Mossberg 88 shotgun for 219.99. Seems as good a way as any to keep unwanted pests out of the house.
Posted by: BIG ROB at June 26, 2012 11:12 AM (MuXag)
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at June 26, 2012 11:12 AM (ZDP2l)
Posted by: Margarita DeVille at June 26, 2012 11:12 AM (C8mVl)
Posted by: mpfs at June 26, 2012 11:14 AM (iYbLN)
Posted by: soothsayer at June 26, 2012 11:14 AM (4Tl/g)
Posted by: tasker at June 26, 2012 11:15 AM (r2PLg)
Desperate people do desperate things.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 26, 2012 11:16 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Kinder, gentler Obama campaign commercials at June 26, 2012 11:16 AM (RD7QR)
So do I. Mayhap I shall go to Chick Fil A and get a milkshake.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at June 26, 2012 11:16 AM (Gk3SS)
Posted by: WalrusRex at June 26, 2012 03:14 PM (Hx5uv)
Rex at 110 paying off at window #2.
Posted by: garrett at June 26, 2012 11:17 AM (GJoG6)
On the whole, they lost a lot of money doing that.
Posted by: wheatie at June 26, 2012 03:05 PM (0T8H7)
------------------------------------------------
The Japanese did it and now the Chinese. They get a bit of money in their sock and think they can outspend, and perhaps even buy the US. Then when our economy kicks in, even just a little bit, they find themselves in competition with a nation that has almost unlimited resources and wealth.
Posted by: Soona at June 26, 2012 11:17 AM (jtdSY)
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 11:17 AM (oZfic)
I recommend it.
Though I may decide to hit Marble Slab or (local fave) Braums.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 26, 2012 11:17 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: From My Cocoon I Can See The Economy Still Sux at June 26, 2012 11:18 AM (zuDcH)
Posted by: TheQuietMan at June 26, 2012 11:19 AM (1Jaio)
Posted by: MSM at June 26, 2012 11:19 AM (C8mVl)
Posted by: From My Cocoon I Can See The Economy Still Sux at June 26, 2012 03:18 PM (zuDcH)
Not soon enough to save his bony ass (knock on wood).
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at June 26, 2012 11:19 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Adam Smith's Invisible Pimp Hand at June 26, 2012 11:19 AM (tKFT6)
Posted by: Truck Monkey at June 26, 2012 11:19 AM (jucos)
Posted by: tasker at June 26, 2012 11:19 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: nerdygirl at June 26, 2012 11:19 AM (+XnAb)
Another relevant fake anecdote taken from fake life. Thanks curious.
Posted by: Cicero at June 26, 2012 11:20 AM (QKKT0)
Are they talking about the $1 sale?
Posted by: Margarita DeVille at June 26, 2012 03:12 PM (C8mVl)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Chocolate rations.
Posted by: Soona at June 26, 2012 11:20 AM (jtdSY)
What happened to that article (just last week, right?) about housing prices heading to the outhouse again?
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 26, 2012 11:21 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Science!!!!! at June 26, 2012 11:21 AM (C8mVl)
Posted by: Cricket at June 26, 2012 11:21 AM (DrC22)
Violate the existing understanding of the Commerce Clause
But, the commerce Clause is like 2000 years old!?
Posted by: Ezra Klein's other brain cell at June 26, 2012 11:22 AM (GJoG6)
Funny how the economy may or may not be Barry's after 4 years but Bush was responsible for everything that happened from the second he got into office and for years afterwards.
Posted by: TheQuietMan at June 26, 2012 11:22 AM (1Jaio)
expect" but she suddenly got closed mouth as she was afraid she'd give
me too much information and lose her job.
Another relevant fake anecdote taken from fake life. Thanks curious.
Posted by: Cicero at June 26, 2012 03:20 PM (QKKT0)
You are definitely clueless aren't you? Go look it up, go read the real estate section. On long island they have a subdivision where every house is ten million, it's nearly sold out in two years.
You don't get out much do you?
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 11:22 AM (oZfic)
If that's all it takes, then I'm going there and start eating straight out of a five gallon tub.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at June 26, 2012 11:22 AM (Gk3SS)
Posted by: tasker at June 26, 2012 03:19 PM (r2PLg)
"Permission structure"? If they had come to me I would have written them a friggin' note. "The Commerce Clause is sick today. Please excuse The Supreme Court and send it home."
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at June 26, 2012 11:23 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Adam Smith's Invisible Pimp Hand at June 26, 2012 11:23 AM (tKFT6)
Posted by: soothsayer at June 26, 2012 11:23 AM (CXoSL)
What happened to that article (just last week, right?) about housing prices heading to the outhouse again?
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 26, 2012 03:21 PM (8y9MW)
It's a big country. Some places are doing well. I'm not sure who is doing all the buying but it is happening.
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 11:24 AM (oZfic)
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 03:22 PM (oZfic)
Those dicks aren't going to suck themselves...get back to the hole and shut up.
Posted by: garrett at June 26, 2012 11:24 AM (GJoG6)
Posted by: Kelis at June 26, 2012 11:24 AM (jucos)
Posted by: nickless at June 26, 2012 11:25 AM (MMC8r)
Posted by: TheQuietMan at June 26, 2012 11:25 AM (1Jaio)
His prescription for Obama is to go negative and poison Romney's image. It's the only play left to him
Go negative? Has this guy not seen any of Obama's approved ads for the past month in a half? After his apparent "Don't blame me all this bad shit happened before I was golfing on your dime" ads must not have been doing well its been "Romney Economics" all the time for his ads. According to yahoo his newest ad is attacking Romney on outsourcing jobs. This jackass has been going negative for a while now. Past tense.
Posted by: buzzion at June 26, 2012 11:25 AM (GULKT)
Yeah it's true. DC is booming. This is why I'm against DC statehood, they already get all the pork they could want. Screw them.
Posted by: HoboJerky, profit of DOOM! at June 26, 2012 11:25 AM (xAtAj)
If that's all it takes, then I'm going there and start eating straight out of a five gallon tub.
We were looking forward to your Milkshake.
Posted by: All the boys in the yard at June 26, 2012 11:25 AM (GJoG6)
Posted by: The Political Hat at June 26, 2012 11:25 AM (XvHmy)
Maybe it's the Pope. I hear he's retiring.
Posted by: Cicero at June 26, 2012 11:26 AM (QKKT0)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 26, 2012 03:21 PM (8y9MW)
--
Last I heard, there are still 20 million houses sitting vacant, and close to 10% of all 'homeowners' are 60 days in arrears nationally. There may be pockets of good news, but in general it still sucks.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at June 26, 2012 11:28 AM (ZDP2l)
"But while Obama tries to hit Romney on this [outsourcing] issue, records show that ObamaÂ’s campaign is using a travel booking company this year that have operations in India and China.
Federal Election Commission reports show that Obama for America made numerous payments to the corporate travel company Egencia as recently as May. They were made to EgenciaÂ’s Bellevue, Washington office."
* * *
The GOP may be the Stupid Party, but the Dem's truly are the Dipshit Brigade.
Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at June 26, 2012 11:28 AM (famk3)
Posted by: Romulus Augustulus at June 26, 2012 11:28 AM (XvHmy)
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 03:22 PM (oZfic)
Those dicks aren't going to suck themselves...get back to the hole and shut up.
Posted by: garrett at June 26, 2012 03:24 PM (GJoG6)
Thank God the romney camp is doing their own research. If they had to rely on the "don't confuse me with inconvenient facts" crowd they wouldn't be where they are. You guys who attack me have to be closet dems. Anytime I say something that is true, that I know the romney camp is aware of, you attack me. What do you think romney wants to be caught unaware of facts guys like you don't want to deal with or prefer to ignore and deem inconvenient?
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 11:28 AM (oZfic)
Posted by: nickless at June 26, 2012 11:28 AM (MMC8r)
Posted by: macintx at June 26, 2012 11:28 AM (ucs8Y)
Posted by: tasker at June 26, 2012 11:28 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at June 26, 2012 11:29 AM (famk3)
Posted by: Adam Smith's Invisible Pimp Hand at June 26, 2012 11:29 AM (tKFT6)
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 11:29 AM (oZfic)
I'll give you my reaction now. Bite me, curious.
Posted by: Cicero at June 26, 2012 11:30 AM (QKKT0)
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 03:28 PM (oZfic)
I told you to shut the fuck up and put your mouth to use.
Don't make me get up and come over there...
Posted by: garrett at June 26, 2012 11:30 AM (GJoG6)
Posted by: Vic at June 26, 2012 11:30 AM (YdQQY)
Duh, production creates wealth. Demand is just sets the price.
Too many riding the wagon, not enough pulling it.
Posted by: Arms Merchant at June 26, 2012 11:30 AM (+XVQe)
129
Another relevant fake anecdote taken from fake life. Thanks curious.
Posted by: Cicero at June 26, 2012 03:20 PM (QKKT0)
Her pathetic anecdotes are less original than Aaron Sorkin's dialogue.
Posted by: buzzion at June 26, 2012 11:30 AM (GULKT)
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 03:28 PM (oZfic)
I told you to shut the fuck up and put your mouth to use.
Don't make me get up and come over there...
Posted by: garrett at June 26, 2012 03:30 PM (GJoG6)
Are you threatening me?
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 11:30 AM (oZfic)
The places that are doing well.....are the Right-to-Work States.
That map last week showed the states that were friendliest to business....and to starting a new business.
The ones that scored the highest were right-to-work states.
Golly gee....I wonder why.
Posted by: wheatie at June 26, 2012 11:31 AM (0T8H7)
Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 26, 2012 11:31 AM (QxSug)
Excerpt (and the very last sentence in the post):
"And among white Democrats, Obama has lost support as well. In May he lead 89 percent to 6 percent, but that has dropped to 78 percent to 16 percent. "
Open borders. Open borders. Goodbye private-sector union voters.
LINK: http://preview.tinyurl.com/89brcm5
Posted by: mrp at June 26, 2012 11:31 AM (HjPtV)
I'll give you my reaction now. Bite me, curious.
Posted by: Cicero at June 26, 2012 03:30 PM (QKKT0)
You didn't expect the whole immigration executive order yet, there it was. Watch you'll see.
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 11:32 AM (oZfic)
I'll take this. As someone who desperately needs student loan forgiveness, my immediate response would be what. the. fuck. are. you. doing. you. traitorous. prick.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at June 26, 2012 11:32 AM (Gk3SS)
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 03:29 PM (oZfic)
Tax money for idiot occupiers with shitty degrees.
What a brilliant fucking idea THAT is.
Thanks for that, cat urine.
Posted by: © Sponge at June 26, 2012 11:32 AM (UK9cE)
Posted by: Truck Monkey at June 26, 2012 11:32 AM (jucos)
Posted by: Clemenza at June 26, 2012 11:33 AM (qA9lG)
Posted by: curious "the great cornholio" morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 11:33 AM (FIMdg)
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 03:30 PM (oZfic)
Go file a peace order.
Posted by: © Sponge at June 26, 2012 11:34 AM (UK9cE)
Posted by: soothsayer at June 26, 2012 11:34 AM (osU7Q)
>>>On the other hand, my cocooning is at least not unique. Analysts and media keep having to note "unexpected" drops in hiring and growth
Well back in the 3-4% days of last year, I thought briefly there was a chance that would temporarily boom into a recovery, I considered that, I also considered that sustained growth at the 3-4% level would ease economic conditions and make public attitudes better.
And that is exactly what Obama sold the anemic recovery as, a slow controlled economic expansion that would not have the overleveraged boom-bust risks that a faster expansion would have. Beautiful way to market suckage. And the press bought their "Socialism is the cure for the cycles of capitalism" meme that the slow steady recovery had no end in site cocooning themselves from the other possibility that the fundamentals of our economy were in tatters, and two or three quarters was all we were going to get before the growth stalled again when the cycle of investor optimism subsided when they correctly assessed no real growth was going to happen.
Instead this profile has followed, so far, our worst predictions, with an anemic quasi recovery, followed by a bottom referenced slow-down, the only part left is the slow down actually takes hold into a contraction, the banks use billions in reserve capital they have from money printing and have been holding back to liquidate losses and we go crunch but hard as we contract and our monetary system explodes simultaneously. Then you have Great Depression II
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Lite! 98% Anger Free! at June 26, 2012 11:35 AM (0q2P7)
"Reminders that it all went to hell on a different president and partyÂ’s watch doesnÂ’t change that."
Woah woah, which party had watch over it when it went to hell again? The party that controlled the spending? Remind me which party that was? And how spending like a kid with a credit card has worked out again?
Imbeciles.
Posted by: Burn the Witch at June 26, 2012 11:35 AM (rX1N2)
Posted by: Romulus Augustulus at June 26, 2012 03:28 PM (XvHmy)
Typical throw-away silliness, by you and that coffee break person, just from different sides of the equation.
1. Things will get better, but it's a long slog.
2. There are over 250 submarkets in the American real estate market, stories about any one or a handful are meaningless except as they apply locally.
But, what could I know. I got serious about real estate in 1979 and retired as a result of good investments in 2009. Obviously, I know nothing compared to you genius people.
Posted by: Meremortal at June 26, 2012 11:35 AM (Usk3+)
No. Hate on the Left is hardly news, after all.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 26, 2012 11:35 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 03:32 PM (oZfic)
We all agree he's doing unprecedented, Unconstitutional things to destroy this country, but what's your point, exactly?
Posted by: © Sponge at June 26, 2012 11:35 AM (UK9cE)
I'll repost what I posted on HotAir:
ObamaÂ’s strategy is clear: re-energize his disillusioned base.
He is reminding gays, illegals, and now environmentalists (Fed supervision of fracking), that they may not like him very much but he’s “better” than the alternative.
In the coming weeks, look for more pandering: to unions (especially teachers and public employees), lawyers, students (forgiveness of student loans?), and other Leftist constituencies.
Posted by: Arms Merchant at June 26, 2012 11:35 AM (+XVQe)
This is an argument that we've been having here for years. At some point that inventory is going to have to hit the market which will further depress prices. I am in the camp of yank the bandaid off rather than attempting to control the bleeding. The problem, though, is that lending standards have tightened to where they should have been which means if that inventory is released, there are not enough buyers. To get enough buyers, lending standards would have to be loosened. I believe we know how that story ends.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at June 26, 2012 11:36 AM (Gk3SS)
Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 26, 2012 11:36 AM (QxSug)
Posted by: Truck Monkey at June 26, 2012 03:32 PM (jucos)
That's something I've always wondered about -- when do the banks finally get around to dealing with all these houses on their books? Is there some accounting mechanism that will force them to do so or will they just dribble them out?
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at June 26, 2012 11:36 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: tasker at June 26, 2012 11:36 AM (r2PLg)
We are in a Depression, but not a Great Depression depression. More along the lines of some of the depressions suffered prior to the GD.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Lite! 98% Anger Free! at June 26, 2012 11:37 AM (0q2P7)
They'll probably dribble them out. They have to walk a fine line between releasing them quickly enough to get them off the books, and slowly enough to avoid depressing the market.
I'm not sure they'll be able to succeed.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 26, 2012 11:38 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 26, 2012 11:39 AM (QxSug)
That map last week showed the states that were friendliest to business....and to starting a new business.
The ones that scored the highest were right-to-work states.
Golly gee....I wonder why.
Posted by: wheatie at June 26, 2012 03:31 PM (0T8H7)
----------------------------------------------
It's always a good point to make. If any of you live in non-right-to-work states, one of the best hedges against bad times is to take away the power of the unions. Yes, I'm looking at you, northeast and rust-belt US. Unions are a majority of your problems.
Posted by: Soona at June 26, 2012 11:39 AM (jtdSY)
Posted by: tasker at June 26, 2012 11:39 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: soothsayer at June 26, 2012 11:39 AM (qpM85)
What next, he secures the black vote with reparations? Because going from 89% to 95% at the cost of everyone else is surely going to win in the end.
Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 26, 2012 03:36 PM (QxSug)
Remember, the stupid scrunt that actually posted this idea is dumb enough to believe that the youth vote actually matters.
Posted by: buzzion at June 26, 2012 11:40 AM (GULKT)
Posted by: The Political Hat at June 26, 2012 11:40 AM (XvHmy)
Well, here in Kansas it's turning into Dust Bowl II....115 degrees and a nice 30mph breeze from the South. It's Fallujah hot here. It's Triassic Era hot.
And the economy sucks too.
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at June 26, 2012 11:40 AM (Ec6wH)
Look the other day I made a bet with my friend that Issa has all his ducks in a row, has stuff no one know he has, ca blow F&F wide open if and when he wants to. I know I'm not going to lose, it's just observing.
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 11:41 AM (oZfic)
Actually, many of us had to dump our underwater houses to move to jobs when we lost ours. The short sale trashed our heretofore good credit. Others had McMansions that they never should have bought in the first place, but that doesn't mean they couldn't responsibly own something smaller now.
I think you could actually relax the standards and a lot of good credit risks could buy and take some of the pressure off the market. We're renting but would love to buy in this market.
And by "relax the standards" I mean get the damn Feds out of the home loan and bank micro-managing business and let the market lend at what it will bear.
Posted by: Arms Merchant at June 26, 2012 11:41 AM (+XVQe)
Posted by: morale at June 26, 2012 11:41 AM (HOOye)
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at June 26, 2012 03:35 PM (/kI1Q)
heh heh heh you said bunghole
Posted by: curious butthead at June 26, 2012 11:42 AM (FIMdg)
Over 50% of recent college graduates are unemployed. Forgiving student loans isn't that big of a motivator when they can't get a job, and can only eat when they go to mom and dad's.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at June 26, 2012 11:42 AM (ZDP2l)
Posted by: Dr Spank at June 26, 2012 11:42 AM (I/Xad)
I wouldn't have a problem with that, actually, if the banks would a. actually take record title to the homes, b. maintain the property in a minimally safe state and c. paid the property taxes. The problem is that the banks aren't doing that in far too many cases.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at June 26, 2012 11:43 AM (Gk3SS)
Posted by: yinzer at June 26, 2012 11:43 AM (/Mla1)
93 When i saw that cover the first thing I thought of was the "mission accomplished" banner on that ship.
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 03:09 PM (oZfic)
When I saw this....I knew that you were intentionally trying to be irksome.
No one is that stupid.
You come to a place that is known to be a 'military blog' and post intentionally irksome shit.....then act all pitiful, when someone gets irked.
Mission accomplished. Yours. ....To get people to attack you.
Some of us see right through your bullshit, oZfic.
Posted by: wheatie at June 26, 2012 11:44 AM (0T8H7)
Depressions are recessions where your economic baseline is reset to a lower level based on the trough of the dip rather than the height of the boom. They represent a real long term economic contraction and while the sucky part of a depression can be short as a few years if treated properly, they do permanently lower the growth baseline. The GD did all of that plus it drew out the sucky part of the depression for a decade. We're close, but we aren't at that point until we have a second crash.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Lite! 98% Anger Free! at June 26, 2012 11:45 AM (0q2P7)
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at June 26, 2012 11:45 AM (/kI1Q)
Over the past two years, the Republican Party has slowly been building a permission structure...
I told you we should make it look like a big fucking horse that we could all hide inside, but noooo, you insisted it had to look like a real permission structure, and now they're on to us! Happy now?
Posted by: sherlock at June 26, 2012 11:45 AM (2DD2m)
So if the economy is in such great shape, why have garage sales taken off like no-ones business?
And it looks like that Newsweek Cover was trying to compete with Captain America #1 comic.
sheesh...
Posted by: HH at June 26, 2012 11:53 AM (v+ExF)
Think about what it would take to stave off a double dip? I got nothin'.
Drop ALL fed taxes to 7.5% or less. Income, CapGains, Death Tax, Corporate Tax, every one of them.
Posted by: garrett at June 26, 2012 11:56 AM (GJoG6)
Posted by: Vic at June 26, 2012 11:56 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: curious beavis at June 26, 2012 11:56 AM (FIMdg)
Posted by: Vic at June 26, 2012 03:56 PM (YdQQY)
that explains it! The Coke brothers strike again!
Posted by: Hrothgar at June 26, 2012 11:59 AM (i3+c5)
Posted by: bus keeps honking and running circles at June 26, 2012 12:01 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: a curious odor of cat urine at June 26, 2012 12:04 PM (zsgo8)
Posted by: CaveJohnson at June 26, 2012 12:05 PM (FIMdg)
Posted by: morning coffee crew at June 26, 2012 12:23 PM (oZfic)
Posted by: garrett at June 26, 2012 12:24 PM (GJoG6)
Posted by: toby928© at June 26, 2012 12:31 PM (QupBk)
PopeBLah blagh BahBLah blagh Bah
OWSBLah blagh BahBLah blagh BahBLah blagh Bah
BLah blagh BahBLah blagh Bah
blouBLah blagh Bah
BLah blagh BahBLah blagh student loans blouBahBLah blagh Bah
FAKE "friends"BLah blagh Bah Blah New York blou bluagh blagh
PopeBLah blagh BahBLah blagh Bah
OWSBLah blagh BahBLah blagh BahBLah blagh Bah
BLah blagh BahBLah blagh Bah
blouBLah blagh Bah
BLah blagh BahBLah blagh blouBahBLah blagh Bah
Posted by: Muddled Puddle: my life with too many kitties and not enough pills at June 26, 2012 12:37 PM (zsgo8)
And A&W at their restaurants is the best Root Beer you can buy. Home made is even better.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at June 26, 2012 12:37 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 26, 2012 12:54 PM (QxSug)
Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 26, 2012 12:56 PM (QxSug)
Friend --
For the first time in modern American history, the incumbent (that's us) will get outspent in a re-election campaign -- by some estimates as much as 3-to-1.
Over the last 10 days of this month alone, GOP outside groups will spend $20 million attacking President Obama on TV.
Think about that, then think about what they'll spend over the last 10 days in October.
We have to take this seriously. Four months to go in this election, and we have a huge fundraising deadline coming up in less than a week -- any day we're not chipping away at that disadvantage, we're falling behind.
Today:
Friend --
I will be the first president in modern history to be outspent in his re-election campaign, if things continue as they have so far.
I'm not just talking about the super PACs and anonymous outside groups -- I'm talking about the Romney campaign itself. Those outside groups just add even more to the underlying problem.
The Romney campaign raises more than we do, and the math isn't hard to understand: Through the primaries, we raised almost three-quarters of our money from donors giving less than $1,000, while Mitt Romney's campaign raised more than three-quarters of its money from individuals giving $1,000 or more.
And, again, that's not including the massive outside spending by super PACs and front groups funneling up to an additional billion dollars into ads trashing me, you, and everything we believe in.
We can be outspent and still win -- but we can't be outspent 10 to 1 and still win.
More than 2.2 million Americans have already chipped in for us, and I'm so grateful for it. As we face this week's fundraising deadline, will you donate $3 or more today?
Every donation you make today automatically enters you to join Michelle and me for one of the last grassroots dinners of this campaign -- today is your last chance to get your name in.
These dinners represent how we do things differently. My opponent spent this past weekend at a secretive retreat for the biggest donors to both his campaign and the super PACs that support him.
I've got other responsibilities I'm attending to.
Donate today to stand for our kind of politics:
https://donate.barackobama.com/June-Deadline
Thank you,
Barack
===========
three to one, ten to one... and these are the people who want to keep running things? Anyone want to bid fifteen to one?
"I've got other responsibilities I'm attending to."
Fore..!
Posted by: mallfly at June 26, 2012 01:02 PM (bJm7W)
Posted by: mallfly at June 26, 2012 01:03 PM (bJm7W)
Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 26, 2012 01:20 PM (QxSug)
Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 26, 2012 01:22 PM (QxSug)
Posted by: Steevy at June 26, 2012 01:22 PM (Ts9tU)
Uh, bullshit on this - wasn't King Barry a member of the MAJORITY CONGRESSIONAL PARTY when "it all went to hell" in 2007-2008? Reminding people where the economy was in November 2006 - you know, the first time we "voted for change" - is something we just don't do nearly enough.
Posted by: DocJ at June 26, 2012 04:36 PM (bBbGz)
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Posted by: HoboJerky, profit of DOOM! at June 26, 2012 10:41 AM (xAtAj)