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October 22, 2012

Suffolk University Poll, Ohio: Tied, 47-47
Update: Reuters IPSOS Ohio: 46-46, Tie
— Ace

A Suffolk University poll in Ohio just published. It has it 47-47, tied.

As far as favorability, it's also a statistical tie -- Obama 50/45, Romney 50/46.

The partisan split, D/R/I, is 39/35/27, or D+4. (Not 39-34, as my typo first had it.) Captain Ed just noted in his post on the CBS/Qunnippiac poll...

In 2008, the D/R/I was 39/31/30, while in 2010 it was 36/37/28

D+4 seems ballpark plausible, if you guess (as I would) that 2012 will be somewhere between 2008 and 2010.

20% of voters say they've already voted. CAC keeps noting that polls overstate how many people have already voted -- the people claiming to have voted early in polls has been, in past polls, something like nearly double the actual number of voters who have voted early. I don't know how 20% tracks with the actual numbers at this point.

Those who already voted say they favored Obama 54-41, but those yet to vote (80%) favor Romney 48-45.

The economy/jobs is rated as the most important issue, at 52%. But then, Obama narrowly edges Romney (!!!) on this score, 45-44.

It seems there's a bias towards people who say they've already voted. Either these people are over-eager to answer pollster's questions, and wind up being overrrepresented in samples, or Democrats are just inclined to bullshit questioners about their actual level of political involvement.

Over the weekend I spent an hour or two checking the polls for 2004 and 2008 to see how the races went then. Just to get a sense of how accurate the polls were.

In 2004, Kerry seemed to be slightly head in Ohio, or tied... until about right now. There was a late break for Bush. Then again, Bush had been ahead there before the debates, so it was a bit of a coming-home effect.

But in 2008, polls had a persistent lead for Obama through the entire season. The final RCP average was +2.5 for Obama -- but he won stronger than that, +4.6%.

If this is going to be a 2004 sort of year, we should start seeing a break towards Romney pretty soon.

Weak Voter Screen: If you check the poll, you'll see its only voter screen is a question asking people to rate their likelihood of voting. Anyone who says "Very likely" is a likely voter.

That's barely a screen at all, and that's what's causing divergences between polls with more involved screens (like Gallup) and most other polls.

Look, most people do not like admitting they are not interested in something all the Smart Set tells them they should be interested in. And they don't like admitting they're not going to do what they're told is their civic duty.

So there is a socially-favored answer here: "Yes, I'm very likely to vote."

That's why Gallup asks a bunch of questions to try to smoke out the bullshitters, asking if you've voted in the previous two elections, and if you know where your local polling place is. Likely voters tend to say yes to these questions; unlikely voters tend to say no.

It now seems that Gallup is one of the few polling companies that asks a battery of LV screen questions, rather than simply asking people to rate their likelihood of voting.

Reuters IPSOS, Tied, 46-46: Is this that late-break thing starting to happen?

The online survey of likely voters found Obama and Romney were each supported by 46 percent of the electorate as they prepare for their final televised debate on Monday night.

Note that this is an online survey. They try to be scientific about these things (unlike those useless "everyone just send your people to freep this poll" fake polls), but it's still not really the same as random digit dial polling.

I think they attempt a randomization, but it's all through internet users, so who knows whether that's really representative.

Posted by: Ace at 10:04 AM | Comments (227)
Post contains 672 words, total size 4 kb.

1 Eyeore!

Posted by: soothsayer at October 22, 2012 10:06 AM (jUytm)

2 Second and Obama sucks

Posted by: Kal Penn at October 22, 2012 10:07 AM (A+XQM)

3 POLLS FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 22, 2012 10:07 AM (ovpNn)

4 funny how all the economic data released in the past 46 months has been Affirmatively Action Adjusted Obama has been 'spotted' economic points, only to be corrected later in adjustments.

Posted by: soothsayer at October 22, 2012 10:07 AM (jUytm)

5 Ohio is very scary.

Posted by: lorien1973 at October 22, 2012 10:07 AM (mcWHD)

6 third, and Greg also swallows

Posted by: mallfly at October 22, 2012 10:08 AM (bJm7W)

7 Obama is the only president to serve his term with a set of training wheels.

Posted by: soothsayer at October 22, 2012 10:08 AM (jUytm)

It is so close, that the polls do not matter.

GET OUT THE VOTE MATTERS!!!

VOTE!

Get your family to vote.

Get your friends to vote.

Posted by: rd does not believe the polls at October 22, 2012 10:08 AM (zLp5I)

9

It's D+4 and all likely voters, but with 39% D and 35% R, and 27% indies.

Something seems screwy about those numbers beyond just the already-voted numbers.

Maybe the 17% 18-35 demo group?

Posted by: tod von oben at October 22, 2012 10:08 AM (UaxA0)

10 Rueters Ipsos - O 46 R 46 according to rush

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 22, 2012 10:09 AM (ovpNn)

11 I expect the next set of unemployment figures to accidentally miss anyone out of work for more than 45 weeks. oops.

Posted by: mallfly at October 22, 2012 10:09 AM (bJm7W)

12 20% of voters say they've already voted-- I'm wondering if the thought isn't if I tell them I already voted they will stop fucking calling me.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Now with extra impact. at October 22, 2012 10:09 AM (VtjlW)

13 If Ohio blows this I'm never going to Cedar Point again.

Posted by: Mr. Mojo Risin at October 22, 2012 10:09 AM (xXhWA)

14 Why can't the friggin Republican talking heads remember to pull out the Dr in Pakistan that confirmed Bin Laden's DNA for us, when these libs try to point to the names on the documents that Issa released?

Posted by: Ball of Hate at October 22, 2012 10:10 AM (AREf/)

15 Obama is the only president to serve his term with a set of training wheels.

Posted by: soothsayer at October 22, 2012 02:08 PM (jUytm)

-----

... and Mom jeans.

And a bike helmet.

Posted by: fixerupper at October 22, 2012 10:10 AM (C8hzL)

16 Vote Fap Fap Vote Fap Fap Fap Vote.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 22, 2012 10:10 AM (ovpNn)

17

It's called a "handicap" sooth.

and it's racist. Why should we need to boost the points of a minority president? Can't he compete on merits once he's "on the job"? Isn't that the point of AA?

Posted by: tod von oben at October 22, 2012 10:10 AM (UaxA0)

18 Early voting is Fubar and should be illegal except in certain situtations

Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 22, 2012 10:10 AM (oSFWF)

19 #LOLaPelosi

Compete to have your fro Nancy Pelosi plastered on this mobile billboard.
Then we'll drive around her office in San Francisco for a day.
http://lolapelosi.com/

Posted by: National Republican Congressional Committee at October 22, 2012 10:10 AM (e8kgV)

20 FORTY SEVEN?

Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at October 22, 2012 10:10 AM (DQMcq)

21 What do you want to bet barry drops a national security secret, tonight. Some kinda shiny object to ooooh, aaaaah and wow the Foward thinkers.

Posted by: 15 days at October 22, 2012 10:11 AM (LpQbZ)

22 Ohio is kind of a SCFOAMS.

Posted by: All the other States at October 22, 2012 10:11 AM (I7O5y)

23 Yes, we are very very closed to transitioning from "weaponized" polling to "reputational" polling.

The media has been using weaponized polling with Democrat Oversamples this entire cycle. Their propaganda value is about spent. With a week to go before the counting actually starts we can expect the Dem +5 to Dem +9 samples to go away and get Dem +2 (which is still too high IMHO) samples on average.

These pollsters cannot afford huge misses on election day.

Because of this and with late deciders breaking for the challenger, I expect to see polls running around 53/47 day before the election. The whole 47 thing is just amusing as hell.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 22, 2012 10:11 AM (hlUJY)

24 Ace of Polls!

Posted by: joncelli at October 22, 2012 10:11 AM (RD7QR)

25
OT: Russell Means, that Indian that is still fighting the American-Indian wars and trying to stop the Santa Maria from landing has died.

Odogeater is likely to give a shout out tonite.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 22, 2012 10:12 AM (PHb2k)

26 20% of voters say they've already voted-- something CAC keeps noting does not match the actual records. Those who already voted say they favored Obama 54-41, but those yet to vote (80%) favor Romney 48-45.

========

They either think 'requesting a ballot' is the same as voting or, the SOS website isn't updated very often?

Oh wait...they could also be lying.

Posted by: Tami at October 22, 2012 10:12 AM (X6akg)

27 If I were a goat herder in Libya, my ass would be hiding today. TFG needs to drone strike someones ass to make it look like "he brought them to justice"

Posted by: Ball of Hate at October 22, 2012 10:12 AM (AREf/)

Thumbnail analysis:

Given that the Obama campaign has sunk the Enterprise, Bismarck, Musashi, Victory, and various relics from the Titanic into Ohio and can only manage a dubious tie as the incumbent makes me think that I need to check my pudding reserve levels because a cosmic shit-ton will not be enough.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at October 22, 2012 10:12 AM (B+qrE)

29 /cartoon Obama on a kid's bike w/training wheels, being pushed by members of the media.

Posted by: soothsayer at October 22, 2012 10:12 AM (jUytm)

30 Where's our little pal Romneyloses(fill in the blank)?

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 22, 2012 10:12 AM (6G7z4)

31 I posted this on the last thread after it died, but Darden owns Olive Garden, Longhorns, Red Lobster, Bahama Breeze and several other restaurants. That's a lot of people having their hours and income cut.

Posted by: Adam at October 22, 2012 10:12 AM (/YJYi)

32 Breaking news from the Daily Kos: "Our Vaginas are not WMDs"

Posted by: Mr. Mojo Risin at October 22, 2012 10:13 AM (xXhWA)

33 ABC/WAPO drops tonight. Let's see if they boldly stick with their Dem +9 sample (or even worse). Could they go Dem +12 to keep Obama competitive? Would not surprise me in the least.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 22, 2012 10:13 AM (hlUJY)

34 FOWARD MARCH!

Posted by: Obama-supporting Idiot (But I repeat myself) at October 22, 2012 10:13 AM (IC6Er)

35 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at October 22, 2012 10:14 AM (nUH8H)

36 may I say why I believe the numbers for Obama are significantly overstated? Can there really be that many people who are stupid enough to think That Guy deserves another four years in the White House? How many are just saying "Obama" to avoid looking racist?
Yeah, I know, preaching to the choir and that c-sucker Greg, but I won't be surprised if the actual vote is less close than the polls suggest.

Posted by: mallfly at October 22, 2012 10:14 AM (bJm7W)

37 Polls! Polls! Polls!

The only polls I want to see are ones with strippers on them!

Posted by: EC at October 22, 2012 10:14 AM (GQ8sn)

38 Come on Ohio...this shouldn't be difficult.

Posted by: Chris at October 22, 2012 10:14 AM (gI9Bk)

39 D+5, Ace. Or, is this the new math?

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at October 22, 2012 10:15 AM (f9c2L)

40 #37 is Bill Clinton incognito

Posted by: Ball of Hate at October 22, 2012 10:15 AM (AREf/)

41 Democrats are just inclined to bullshit questioners about their actual level of political involvement.

----

Remember that show (Jimmy Kimmel?) that questioned those Obamabots last week about who won the debate, their favorite questions and answers etc. the day before the debate? They couldn't say that they hadn't watched it even though they couldn't have watched it. And I don't recall any who answered other than tht Obama won the imaginary debate.

Democrats: The party of imaginary people voting for imaginary candidates for imaginary reasons.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 22, 2012 10:15 AM (XUKZU)

42 #37 is Bill Clinton incognito

I'm no chubby chaser!

Posted by: EC at October 22, 2012 10:16 AM (GQ8sn)

43 I think the single MOST SHOCKING TAKEAWAY from this election will be an R +2 electorate.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 22, 2012 10:16 AM (hlUJY)

44 I mean, O-h-i-o.
4 letters and two of them are the same.
That's weak, man.

Posted by: All the other States at October 22, 2012 10:16 AM (I7O5y)

45 Already voted. First day, within the first hour. First time I've ever pulled the straight party ticket lever. Mitt can start eating live kittehs and it wouldn't change my vote.

Posted by: dogfish at October 22, 2012 10:16 AM (N2yhW)

46 Darden owns Olive Garden, Longhorns, Red Lobster, Bahama Breeze and several other restaurants. That's a lot of people having their hours and income cut.

Darden's CEO Clarence Otis is also a Dem donor.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider at October 22, 2012 10:16 AM (fwARV)

47 I'd love to know the % of idiots who voted for Obama in 2008 to 'make history.'

Posted by: soothsayer at October 22, 2012 10:16 AM (jUytm)

48 Hey ace: 2 things: What were the demo samples in 2004 and how closely did they match reality? Also- when are you going to post a main page post (or even a sidebar link) to the Benghazi Docs stuff?

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at October 22, 2012 10:16 AM (nUH8H)

49 The Green party's presidential candidate has called Barack Obama a "climate denier" for failing to talk about climate change during the elections.

On the eve of the third and final presidential debate, the Green party's Jill Stein said Obama's failure to speak out about environmental concerns made him virtually identical to Republicans who deny the human causes of global warming.

The absence of climate change from the elections, after a year of record temperatures, wildfires and drought, has hugely frustrated environmental campaigners.

Obama and Mitt Romney, who has expressed doubt about the human causes of climate change and the viability of renewable energy such as wind power, have failed to address the issue in their last two presidential debates.

But no campaigner has gone as far as Stein, who said Obama was "another climate denier who basically sold out with just a little bit of window dressing".

Posted by: Jared Loughner at October 22, 2012 10:16 AM (e8kgV)

50 I'm going to repeat my theory. It is in the collective best interest of the state to continue to be so evenly split. Further, it allows people to feel a little smug about themselves. My guess is many "undecides" know they will vote Mitt in the end, but they still tell themselves and anyone who will listen (pollsters) that they aren't sure who they will vote for. This makes them feel better because when they finally do cast a ballot, they can say they did it with all the infomation. Ohioans want this election to come down to them - or at lease apperar that way - because they want to be in this same position in 4 years. It means people will cater to them. Iowa has perfected this. Why shouldn't Ohio act in the same way?

Posted by: SH at October 22, 2012 10:17 AM (gmeXX)

51 The already voted numbers prove Dems lie. Period. Last week Jimmy Kimmel went into the streets and asked people who won the debate ... before it happened. Most everybody claimed to have watched it and of course Obama won. Maybe pollsters have some way of filtering these liars out, but the fact that they publish these numbers when a quick comparison to actual voting shows a different truth taints the results. And as always, the taint favors Dems. Methinks Romney is now up 3 in Ohio.

Posted by: MaxMBJ at October 22, 2012 10:17 AM (lOlyY)

52 Breaking news from the Daily Kos: "Our Vaginas are not WMDs"

Sigh... I wish I could say the same.

Posted by: Sandra Fluke at October 22, 2012 10:17 AM (SY2Kh)

53 According to TFG, it's O-I-H-O

Posted by: Ball of Hate at October 22, 2012 10:17 AM (AREf/)

54 Come on Ohio...this shouldn't be difficult.

Posted by: Chris at October 22, 2012 02:14 PM (gI9Bk)

I've reweighted your comment to D+8 and it now reads "I love Obama, he is the light-bringer!"

Posted by: Oldcat at October 22, 2012 10:17 AM (z1N6a)

55 These poles are bothering me.

Posted by: Walther von Brauchitsch at October 22, 2012 10:17 AM (8g9qq)

There is one big difference right now...that makes this year different from any other year:

We have a Thug in the White House.

When has that ever been the case?

When have there ever been so many people who are afraid to say who they are voting against?

You cannot tell me that this is 'not a factor' in all these polls.

People weren't afraid to say who they were voting for in 2004...and 2008.

Posted by: wheatie at October 22, 2012 10:17 AM (ipkPX)

57 If Ohio screws us, I say we throw them out of the union. Fucking state has nothing to offer, anyway.

And fuck Ohio State.

Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 22, 2012 10:17 AM (Agn5J)

58 Darden's CEO Clarence Otis is also a Dem donor.

So what you're saying is that Mr. Otis is a self-interested hypocrit.

Posted by: EC at October 22, 2012 10:17 AM (GQ8sn)

59 Ohio is the media's firewall -- after their national polling broke apart, followed by a breach in the the battleground state average.

Posted by: Uncledave at October 22, 2012 10:17 AM (nJ32z)

60 Darden owns Olive Garden, Longhorns, Red Lobster, Bahama Breeze and several other restaurants. Thank you! I could not remember who it was.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Now with extra impact. at October 22, 2012 10:17 AM (VtjlW)

61 Polling is an art form. the Benghazi docs are a first source--the words of dead men--what wins? The polling bs and the reality fades away...

Posted by: tasker at October 22, 2012 10:18 AM (r2PLg)

62 "Our Vaginas are not WMDs"

Speak for yourself!

Posted by: Helen of Troy at October 22, 2012 10:18 AM (GQ8sn)

63 This just in! Obama investigating whether Pearl Harbor attack was spontaneous reaction to vicious Asian stereotypes in Charlie Chan movies.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 22, 2012 10:18 AM (XUKZU)

Russell Means, that Indian that is still fighting the American-Indian wars and trying to stop the Santa Maria from landing has died.

---- ---- ----- ----- ---- - ---- ---- -- --

One less guy to throw horse dung at the Italians on Columbus Day in Denver. Oh well....

Posted by: Meremortal at October 22, 2012 10:18 AM (1Y+hH)

"Those who already voted say they favored Obama 54-41, but those yet to vote (80%) favor Romney 48-45."

Because of the free rides to the polls for Obamabots and in a vain attempt to suppress Repub. votes on election day.

I just voted early on my lunch hour here in East TX and the polling place was completely packed - with retired white people. I do not think they are the type of voters that will re-elect Glowbama.

Posted by: MWTexas at October 22, 2012 10:18 AM (N05oL)

66 49 The Green party's presidential candidate has called Barack Obama a "climate denier" for failing to talk about climate change during the elections. ________ Get lost, climate change! You had your chance. There are more important issues at stake this cycle.

Posted by: Big Bird, Binders, and Birth Control at October 22, 2012 10:19 AM (NWLVJ)

67 When has that ever been the case? 1944 Just called...

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at October 22, 2012 10:20 AM (nUH8H)

68

Q37. Despite who you are personally supporting for president, when all the votes are counted in November, who do you think will be elected president - Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Obama 52%???

Bandwagon effect?

Posted by: tod von oben at October 22, 2012 10:20 AM (UaxA0)

69 My wife made me watch Ann Romney on the View (she was great!), and I could not help but pull this little nugget out for Moron satisfaction.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQIDP-tVcUU

Folks, Ann Romney is a giver.

Posted by: scottst at October 22, 2012 10:20 AM (2S8JC)

The meme from the pundits on Nov 7 will be that the Republicans threw a tantrum, and the Dems didn't turn out because, VOTER SUPRESSION!!!

Posted by: Meremortal at October 22, 2012 10:21 AM (1Y+hH)

71 Dennis Miller Show ‏@DennisDMZ

The main thing Barack Obama and Bill Clinton have in common is when they're cornered they both hide behind Hillary's skirt.

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 22, 2012 10:21 AM (8sCoq)

I think the single MOST SHOCKING TAKEAWAY from this election will be an R +2 electorate.

That's just a lie becasue 2010 never happened. Or something.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at October 22, 2012 10:21 AM (B+qrE)

73 Foward!

Posted by: Dr. Varno at October 22, 2012 10:22 AM (baxL7)

74 Worrying about this goddam election is going to make me lose my job.

Posted by: joncelli at October 22, 2012 10:22 AM (RD7QR)

75 Also, 2004 OH was R+5.

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at October 22, 2012 10:22 AM (DKxu1)

76 True story: in 2004 there was one precinct in Cleveland where the vote was unanimous ... something like 1300 votes for Kerry, 0 for Bush. Diversity ... it's all in your head.

Posted by: MaxMBJ at October 22, 2012 10:23 AM (lOlyY)

77 whew! I was wondering when I would get to discuss a poll around here.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 22, 2012 10:23 AM (0q2P7)

78 I inspect homes going into foreclosure.. they are occupied.. just way behind in their payments. There are never any political signs in their yard.

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at October 22, 2012 10:24 AM (DGIjM)

79 Darden's CEO Clarence Otis is also a Dem donor.

So what you're saying is that Mr. Otis is a self-interested hypocrit.

Posted by: EC at October 22, 2012 02:17 PM (GQ8sn)

-- ------------ ----------- -------------

Pretty much.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider at October 22, 2012 10:24 AM (fwARV)

80 As an Ohioan, I think Romney's winning here. There's simply no excitement for Obama like there was in 2008. He won by something like 4.5% last time, when people were excited about him. You can't tell me that at least that many won't either switch to Romney this time, or not vote. Obama has probably already lost a great deal of support from college students alone, many of whom won't be bothered to vote for him this time around (and in many cases, that might be two votes per college student, one absentee and one in their college town). Minorities won't show up in quite as large proportions this time around, either. No way Obama wins Ohio while losing independents here. I can't imagine the breakdown is anything better than D+4, and probably less than D+2.

Posted by: Mullaney at October 22, 2012 10:25 AM (s8XaI)

81 @jpodhoretz

Tip for Romney: at top of broadcast, ask Schieffer to provide ball scores every 20 minutes.

Posted by: Tami at October 22, 2012 10:25 AM (X6akg)

82 9 It's D+4 and all likely voters, but with 39% D and 35% R, and 27% indies. Something seems screwy about those numbers beyond just the already-voted numbers. Maybe the 17% 18-35 demo group? It's like the athletes who take drugs. They have to get better and better at hiding what they're doing.

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at October 22, 2012 10:25 AM (JVCVF)

83 Ace, how does 39/34/27 add up to D+4??? I know you must be tired but come-on mate, the dems skew enough already.

Posted by: Marsellus Wallace at October 22, 2012 10:25 AM (PnC0I)

84 Oh, fuck -- more poll shit.

Posted by: Torch-Wielding Villager at October 22, 2012 10:26 AM (sTS/8)

85 the split is D+4. Where I screwed up was the actual numbers. It's 39-35-27.

Posted by: ace at October 22, 2012 10:26 AM (LCRYB)

74Worrying about this goddam election is going to make me lose my job.Posted by: joncelli at October 22, 2012 02:22 PM (RD7QR)

For a lot of people, losing this election means losing their jobs.

Posted by: Mr. Mojo Risin at October 22, 2012 10:26 AM (xXhWA)

87 More polls?

Where's the strippers?

Posted by: © Sponge at October 22, 2012 10:26 AM (UK9cE)

The other day I told somebody I was undecided because I didn't want to have the conversation.

In my poll of one, Obama theoretically has a chance of getting 100% of my vote. Practically speaking though...

Polls are still inaccurate because they are. You can wring your hands between now and election day. Afterwards, when you are all breathing your sighs of relief? You'll know how I've felt for the last 2 years.

Posted by: BurtTC at October 22, 2012 10:26 AM (TOk1P)

89 Are early voters always Marxist? And are early voters, frequent voters?

Posted by: A Serious Question at October 22, 2012 10:27 AM (71LDo)

90 The main thing Barack Obama and Bill Clinton have in common is when they're cornered they both hide behind Hillary's skirt.

----

Hillary!'s skirt is like Athena aegis.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 22, 2012 10:27 AM (XUKZU)

91 It's like the athletes who take drugs. They have to get better and better at hiding what they're doing. Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at October 22, 2012 02:25 PM (JVCVF) _______________ This.

Posted by: tasker at October 22, 2012 10:27 AM (r2PLg)

92 Soon......

Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 22, 2012 10:27 AM (wtvvX)

93 The online survey of likely voters found Obama and Romney were each supported by 46 percent of the electorate as they prepare for their final televised debate on Monday night.

ZIONIST ILLUMINATI LIARS. RON PAUL won that poll with 98% of the vote!!!

Posted by: Cult of the Paulistinian at October 22, 2012 10:27 AM (SY2Kh)

94 THE THING THAT SCARES ME ABOUT OHIO... Is that the dems have been building their ground game there for 4+ years. Romney campaign is playing catch up.

Posted by: Marsellus Wallace at October 22, 2012 10:27 AM (PnC0I)

95 First question from scieffer to Romney: Since obama has a nobel peace prize how can you possibly compete with that?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 22, 2012 10:28 AM (oSFWF)

96 But Intrade has Obama up by 20%!!!!!!

Posted by: In before the troll at October 22, 2012 10:28 AM (TIIx5)

97 ZIONIST ILLUMINATI LIARS. RON PAUL won that poll with 98% of the vote!!! Posted by: Cult of the Paulistinian at October 22, 2012 02:27 PM (SY2Kh) ahhaaha

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at October 22, 2012 10:28 AM (DGIjM)

98 We should split Ohio into three states.

Posted by: Joe(Pull my Finger) Biden at October 22, 2012 10:29 AM (I7O5y)

99 The preference cascade has already occured. People know it is ok to like Mitt. It is ok to vote against Obama. But the enormity of the preference cascade won't show up until election day. Because it is human nature to put off a decision until as long as possible. A) we are simply lazy, and B) we like to pretend that we take everything into account. But on election day, the preference cascade that has already occurred in the back of voters minds will take place. And it will be too late for Obama who thinks if he only holds on to Ohio he can pull this out. The reality is he is going to lose Ohio and much more. In the end, when we look back, there was really nothing he could do . He was a terrible president with a lousy record that offered no vision for another 4 years. All the platitudes and hope and change rhetoric were completely gone, and in the end he was just another politician with a failed record. To top it off, his final months before the election have been mired in a foreign policy disaster that is being covered up. Game over.

Posted by: SH at October 22, 2012 10:29 AM (gmeXX)

100 Let's have another poll, Ace. We need more poll results. Not enough for us hardcore political junkies.

Posted by: Arms Merchant at October 22, 2012 10:29 AM (Mtlzn)

101 Since obama has a nobel peace prize how can you possibly compete with that? So did Arafat. I'll keep company with people who *don't* have Nobel Peace prizes, thanks.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at October 22, 2012 10:29 AM (nUH8H)

102 95 First question from scieffer to Romney: Since obama has a nobel peace prize how can you possibly compete with that? "I'm just glad he chose Biden instead of Arafat."

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at October 22, 2012 10:29 AM (JVCVF)

103 Is it wrong of me to want to Lance Armstrong Obama? I mean, just write him out of the historical record.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 22, 2012 10:30 AM (XUKZU)

104

67 When has that ever been the case?

1944 Just called...

------------

You're saying that people were afraid to say they were voting against FDR?

Nah.

I don't think they were afraid of him...we were in World War II then, AllenG.

Most people had someone in the military.

They'd been listening to those 'fireside chats' and felt comfortable with FDR.

Posted by: wheatie at October 22, 2012 10:30 AM (ipkPX)

105 Ohio is tied? Incumbent can't even get close to 50%? Bad news for Romney, obviously! Trust me, I'm a polester!

Posted by: Romney Loses Anna Wintour's Vote at October 22, 2012 10:30 AM (/YJYi)

106 nov1, 2004 in CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll Kerry had leads of 3 points in Florida and 4 points in Ohio....Bush won Ohio., and Florida....just saying....

Posted by: runner at October 22, 2012 10:30 AM (WR5xI)

107 I'm off to go see which bi polar Allah Pundit is swinging from....

Posted by: tasker at October 22, 2012 10:31 AM (r2PLg)

108 These Undecided Ohioans...I find them unpleasant, unsightly, and ripe with the odors of old cheese, clove cigarettes, and cheap spraypaint.

Posted by: Jaws at October 22, 2012 10:31 AM (4I3Uo)

109 I don't use those polls, therefore they don't matter.

Now PPP and Huff Po, those are some good pollsters.

Posted by: Nate Silver at October 22, 2012 10:31 AM (wR+pz)

110

95 -

Follow-up question: I mean, just look at his skin. Like chocolate syrup it is... I know that's not a question, but come on!

Posted by: Bob S. at October 22, 2012 10:31 AM (TOk1P)

111 Once again: the important thing about Ohio isn't the bottom-line "Obama + whatever" number. The important thing about Ohio at this point is that the polls consistently are registering 6-8% undecided voters there and are consistently showing Obama no higher than 47-48% support. That's double the amount of undecided voters in states like Wisconsin and Iowa, and it's keeping Obama below majority support.

tl;dr analysis: Unlike other swing states, in Ohio Romney doesn't need to swing any people that say they're voting for the empty chair. He just needs to win the undecideds by a comfortable but not extreme margin.

This one's in the bag.

Posted by: Sayyid at October 22, 2012 10:31 AM (7x3Pu)

112 Is it wrong of me to want to Lance Armstrong Obama? I mean, just write him out of the historical record.

Yes. He should remain as a warning to future generations.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 22, 2012 10:31 AM (SY2Kh)

113
Assuming its a good sample, tied at 47 is pretty close to screwed for an incumbent.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 22, 2012 10:31 AM (PHb2k)

114 Too many polls. So many I can't believe any one of them.

Posted by: Soona at October 22, 2012 10:32 AM (V6eom)

115 You're saying that people were afraid to say they were voting against FDR? Actually, my answer was for the "thug in office" part of the question. Which FDR undoubtedly was. But you're right. I should have said 1940. That was the one he won mostly by thuggery and graft.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at October 22, 2012 10:32 AM (nUH8H)

116 Holy shit-- Ace is up before Allah Pundit!!

Posted by: tasker at October 22, 2012 10:32 AM (r2PLg)

117 >Since obama has a nobel peace prize how can you possibly compete with that?

So did Arafat. I'll keep company with people who *don't* have Nobel Peace prizes, thanks.

DING DING DING

C'mon down and pick up the keys to your NEW BUICK

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 22, 2012 10:32 AM (8sCoq)

118 I still would not put it pass Barry to cancel out tonight, "Because of National Security Issues which we can not tell you about, but you have to believe"

Mitt should do the debate with the empty chair and buy the time to do it.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 22, 2012 10:32 AM (wR+pz)

119 We may have our third lib death.

Russell Means. Although not a old line liberal, he got mucho assistance from the libs for his bs cause and instigated some of the tactics still used by the left today.

I hope he goes to the unhappy hunting ground or wherever Indians call Hell.

Posted by: Jcw46 at October 22, 2012 10:33 AM (Vh0f5)

120 Megyn Kelly is talking about this Suffolk Poll....right now.

Posted by: wheatie at October 22, 2012 10:33 AM (ipkPX)

121 Ohio will be D+3 at best, and that is assuming some dem enthusiasm that I haven't seen evidence of.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 22, 2012 10:33 AM (DRgeg)

122 It's not Obama's fault! It's the Israelis that are causing all the trouble in the Middle East!

Posted by: Jimmy "Peanut" Carter at October 22, 2012 10:33 AM (XUKZU)

123 112 Is it wrong of me to want to Lance Armstrong Obama? I mean, just write him out of the historical record. Yes. He should remain as a warning to future generations. Will there be some kind of ceremony, like at the Masters, where Carter puts the jacket on Obama?

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at October 22, 2012 10:33 AM (JVCVF)

124 Spell we much! Foward! http://tinyurl.com/9v6nqe8

Posted by: USA at October 22, 2012 10:33 AM (RIg+t)

125 For an incumbent 46% and 47% are bad numbers. Real bad. Romney can live with them, in contrast.

Posted by: andrew at October 22, 2012 10:34 AM (cq0FO)

126 NumbersMuncher @NumbersMuncher Gravis Marketing has a 3 pt race in PA: Obama 48, Romney 45. Romney leads indys by 2. D+8 sample (was D+7 in 08, D+3 in 2010).

Posted by: Evilpens at October 22, 2012 10:34 AM (ck76k)

127

As of the 20th of Oct Ace....11.1 percent of Ohio had early voted/absentee.......So the 20 percent is inaccurate....they cannot vote Sundays so that total will be updated today...it will probably reach about 12 to 13 percent by Weds...Cuyahoga County, which is Obama's strength, reported about 14.5 percent as of Saturday in that county had early voted/absentee.

But take for a minute the 54-41 percent in Obama's alleged edge in early voting....that is 13 percent...that is down 7 percent from 2008 already in which it was 20 percent...already a very big improvement.

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 22, 2012 10:34 AM (HDcKc)

128 President Obama, tell us how you felt when the Nobel committee gave you the peace prize in advance of all of the wonderful peacey international work you have done.

Mr Romney, tell us how it feels to know that because you are a warmonger who supports Bush's Cowboy Diplomacy, you will never get a Nobel Peace Prize.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 22, 2012 10:34 AM (ovpNn)

129 Megyn Kelly is talking about this Suffolk Poll....right now. I like the idea of Megyn Kelly talking about polls... Is she wearing the naughty librarian glasses?

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at October 22, 2012 10:34 AM (nUH8H)

130 I hope he goes to the unhappy hunting ground or wherever Indians call Hell.

----

I think they call it Lizzie Warren's bedroom.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 22, 2012 10:34 AM (XUKZU)

131 124 Spell we much!
Foward!
http://tinyurl.com/9v6nqe8

Posted by: USA

Which word did they mis-spell? Forward or Coward?

Posted by: Roy at October 22, 2012 10:35 AM (VndSC)

132 "Our Vaginas are not WMDs" You ever hear Larry the Cable Guy talk about his girlfriend wearing crotchless panties? "You want some of this?" "Hell, no. Look what it did to your undershorts."

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at October 22, 2012 10:35 AM (JVCVF)

133 Ace is giving newcomer 'bluerose' a good whatfor in thread below.

Posted by: soothsayer at October 22, 2012 10:35 AM (jUytm)

134 Since obama has a nobel peace prize how can you possibly compete with that? So did Arafat. I'll keep company with people who *don't* have Nobel Peace prizes, thanks. DING DING DING C'mon down and pick up the keys to your NEW BUICK Posted by: Jones in CO at October 22, 2012 02:32 PM (8sCoq) Good comeback. I hope Romney reads us

Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 22, 2012 10:35 AM (oSFWF)

135 I read the Suffolk report for this poll and a couple of things caught my eye.

13% say they could change their mind.

Of the 5% of likely voters who are undecided/didn't answer, they lean to Romney 32-16.

Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at October 22, 2012 10:36 AM (DQMcq)

136 Question #2 for Governor Romney: Considering that Mormons are well-known for their war-mongering, imperialistic ways, can you give a detailed response assuring the American people how you would curb those instincts?

Posted by: Bob Schieffer at October 22, 2012 10:36 AM (sTS/8)

137 I'm begging you folks get your friends and relatives out to vote, we need this badly. I have one nephew that is stone cold lib and I told him today I would come by and give him a ride to vote or I would water board him in his backyard his choice? what time are you coming by Uncle 'Nam?

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 22, 2012 10:36 AM (8Hnjw)

138 >I like the idea of Megyn Kelly talking about polls...
Is she wearing the naughty librarian glasses?

No, that's our special Election Night treat

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 22, 2012 10:36 AM (8sCoq)

139 Is Ohio where Luntz gets all his dunces?
Seriously, who is undecided at this point?

Posted by: VW Zao at October 22, 2012 10:36 AM (I7O5y)

140 Mr President, tell us how difficult it has been for you to quell muslim anger over the hateful video and the hateful press conference that Mr Romney had after the attack.

Mr Romney, Dont you feel embarrassed for jumping the gun?

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 22, 2012 10:37 AM (ovpNn)

141 45 Already voted. First day, within the first hour. First time I've ever pulled the straight party ticket lever. Mitt can start eating live kittehs and it wouldn't change my vote. Posted by: dogfish at October 22, 2012 02:16 PM (N2yhW) Yep, this is how I'm voting this year...also for the first time. Bozo the Clown could be on the Republican ticket and he'd still get my vote. Used to be a time I'd actually check candidate's positions and vote based on who I thought was best. People like Pelosi, Obama, Reid and Stupak and the Obamacare voting have left such a bad taste in my mouth about Democrats that I will never consider voting for another one, no matter how "Blue Dog" they are.

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at October 22, 2012 10:37 AM (cDwCa)

142 126...I agree...even Chuck Todd yesterday said that 47 percent for an Incumbent is bad and not good at all...this from NBC's top Obama guy!

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 22, 2012 10:37 AM (HDcKc)

143 tee hee

Megyn just said 'tightening'

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 22, 2012 10:37 AM (8sCoq)

144

I like the idea of Megyn Kelly talking about polls...
Is she wearing the naughty librarian glasses?

Nope.

Come to think of it...I haven't seen her wear those glasses in a long time.

Posted by: wheatie at October 22, 2012 10:37 AM (ipkPX)

145 Considering that Mormons are well-known for their war-mongering, imperialistic ways I don't think even the MFM would be quite that brazen. In fact, the perception of the Mormons is that they're pacifists, remember? I don't think one like that will come up. I expect the Nobel Prize one, however, and hope Romney has prepared for it.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at October 22, 2012 10:38 AM (nUH8H)

146

>>>"Our Vaginas are not WMDs"

Sandra Fluke's WMD = "Where's My Datsun?"

Posted by: Roy at October 22, 2012 10:38 AM (VndSC)

147
Pat "F you up" Cadell said he has seen some private polling in PA showing Romney up or tied. Just now on fox.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 22, 2012 10:38 AM (PHb2k)

148 Yeah, well if it ain't how come everyone is scared of mine. Posted by: Helen Thomas at October 22, 2012 02:33 PM (OWjjx)

We're not scared. We're horrified.

Posted by: Phthirus pubis at October 22, 2012 10:38 AM (Vh0f5)

149 somebody school me-

what is an 'outlier' ?

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 22, 2012 10:39 AM (8sCoq)

150 136...I noticed that too in Suffolk's report about those leaning Romney...Romney has a lot of upside and Obama's support is weakening. Historically undecideds do break 3/4 to 1 over the Incumbent.

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 22, 2012 10:39 AM (HDcKc)

151 150,

Libs after Nov. 6th

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 22, 2012 10:40 AM (8Hnjw)

152 Shit, my producer just put me on suicide watch.

My beloved Tar Heels lost to Duke and now Ohio is tied?

Next thing you know NC State will beat the Tar Poots Saturday.

I picked the wrong time to stop sniffing glue.

Posted by: Chris "tingle legs" Mathews at October 22, 2012 10:40 AM (wR+pz)

153 146 Considering that Mormons are well-known for their war-mongering, imperialistic ways

I don't think even the MFM would be quite that brazen. In fact, the perception of the Mormons is that they're pacifists, remember?

I don't think one like that will come up. I expect the Nobel Prize one, however, and hope Romney has prepared for it.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at October 22, 2012 02:38 PM (nUH8H)

WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU SMOKING?

Did you NOT watch the last debate?

In front of 70 million people that cocksucker lied and the fat assed twinkie snuffler lied to back him up!

Nothing is beyond the pale for these mother fuckers.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 22, 2012 10:40 AM (ovpNn)

154 an outlier is an oddity among samples -- a sample that is on the extreme end of the spectrum

Posted by: soothsayer at October 22, 2012 10:40 AM (jUytm)

155 Will there be some kind of ceremony, like at the Masters, where Carter puts the jacket on Obama?

They'll burn the last Helo he uses. So as not to contaminate the upcoming President.

Jimmy will light the fire.

Posted by: Phthirus pubis at October 22, 2012 10:41 AM (Vh0f5)

156 I don't think even the MFM would be quite that brazen. In fact, the perception of the Mormons is that they're pacifists, remember? yeah? No-one told woopie anything about Mormons?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 22, 2012 10:41 AM (oSFWF)

157 I will say this, though. I think the SCOAMT has a good chance of winning Toronto.

Posted by: Soona at October 22, 2012 10:41 AM (V6eom)

158 @132 Forward or Coward? Nah.

CLOWARD.

And "Piven" bad-rhymes with "Biden," too.

Posted by: comatus at October 22, 2012 10:42 AM (qaVK+)

159

150...Outlier means one poll that runs in contrast to the consensus of others....for example....if four polls show one person up 3-6 but then all of a sudden one shows the other person up...that is considered an outlier....usually a poll that seems out of whack or in such contrast to the others.

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 22, 2012 10:42 AM (HDcKc)

160
>>>>what is an 'outlier' ?<<<<

Whenever Obama is speaking out, he is lying.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 22, 2012 10:42 AM (PHb2k)

161 No, that's our special Election Night treat Posted by: Jones in CO at October 22, 2012 02:36 PM (8sCoq) Fox News with the fan service! Excellent!

Posted by: Golan Globus at October 22, 2012 10:42 AM (7vSU0)

162 159 I don't think even the MFM would be quite that brazen. In fact, the perception of the Mormons is that they're pacifists, remember? yeah? No-one told woopie anything about Mormons? Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 22, 2012 02:41 PM (oSFWF) ________ Maybe she just thought he wasn't Mormon-Mormon.

Posted by: Dante at October 22, 2012 10:42 AM (NWLVJ)

163 150 somebody school me-

what is an 'outlier' ?

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 22, 2012 02:39 PM (8sCoq)

Out-Liar

When Barack Obama steps Out of the Oval Office and into the Rose Garden to deliver a set of remarks thats he later Lies about making.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 22, 2012 10:43 AM (ovpNn)

164 138 I'm begging you folks get your friends and relatives out to vote, we need this badly. I have one nephew that is stone cold lib and I told him today I would come by and give him a ride to vote or I would water board him in his backyard his choice? what time are you coming by Uncle 'Nam?

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 22, 2012 02:36 PM (8Hnjw)

Don't give him a ride if he's a stone cold lib.....he'll just use your gas and vote for Obama!

Waterboard him....just to be sure.

Posted by: Tami at October 22, 2012 10:43 AM (X6akg)

165 150 somebody school me- what is an 'outlier' ? Posted by: Jones in CO at October 22, 2012 02:39 PM (8sCoq) _______________________ Warning-I am really rust on this. Say you plotted the results of the polls on a graph--you could draw a line through the points forming a line-or arc-- a trend line. An"outlier" is a result that falls largely out or off that trend line .

Posted by: tasker at October 22, 2012 10:43 AM (r2PLg)

166 Did you NOT watch the last debate?In front of 70 million people that cocksucker lied and the fat assed twinkie snuffler lied to back him up! Yeah, but they had a fig-leaf there. They also had the fact that the MFM had successfully blacked out most of the coverage of the whole sordid story. This specific example would be like saying to a Protestant candidate, "Since the Baptists are well known for their fealty to the Pope..." it just wouldn't fly. If they were dumb enough to phrase something that way (or near that way), Romney could be the first Presidential Candidate in history to get away with answering the Moderator, "How stupid are you?"

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at October 22, 2012 10:44 AM (nUH8H)

167 47-47 with 3% undecideds 14 days prior to election day? Would you want to be the incumbent with these figures? Remember: O's the incumbent, not the challenger.

Posted by: Interested Party at October 22, 2012 10:44 AM (7rghc)

168 What does the grey shaded rows in RCP mean?

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 22, 2012 10:44 AM (UypUQ)

169 for instance, let's say you were timing the running times of elderly people (avg age 85) running around a track. Their times would be very slow. But one of the runners in the pack was a 65 yr old man -- the youngest of the group. His time was almost 3 times faster than the group. Hence, his data point would look like an outlier on a chart.

Posted by: soothsayer at October 22, 2012 10:44 AM (jUytm)

170

Meremortal's first rule of polls. You can't have too many polls. Keep them coming. Good, bad whatever. They do give a sense of what's going on, as long as the internal info is included.

It's all about the trend when it's this close.

Posted by: Meremortal at October 22, 2012 10:45 AM (1Y+hH)

171 OT: What do JEF and TGF stand for?

Posted by: Trying to catch up at October 22, 2012 10:45 AM (71LDo)

172 Posted by: tasker at October 22, 2012 02:43 PM (r2PLg)

Huh?

Outlier is a French word....pronounced "oot-lee-ay."

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 22, 2012 10:45 AM (2b4yb)

173 I likeed DRI in the 80's until they did a crossover album into a more metal sound. It was a big mistake, they should of stuck with their punk sound roots.

Posted by: dananjcon at October 22, 2012 10:45 AM (eavT+)

174 What is the formula RCP uses to come to polling average?

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 22, 2012 10:45 AM (UypUQ)

175 Jugged eared fuck and That Fucking Guy.

Posted by: Bart who lurks with SMOD 2012, master of his domain at October 22, 2012 10:46 AM (he2LC)

176 what is an 'outlier' ?

---

Statistics is based on sampling. Let's assume we want to know the ratio of red marbles to blue marbles in a sack. The true ratio is one to one but we don't know that. If you draw a conclusion based upon ten samples each of 100 marbles, it is possible that one of those samples will contain eighty blue marbles. The other nine sample are somewhere around fifty/fifty. The eighty blue marble sample is an outlier which resulted from a statistically improbable result and should not be believed.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 22, 2012 10:46 AM (XUKZU)

177

127,148....Seq was the first to catch the trending in PA that shows the race in PA getting closer and closer. In fact, Seq Poll shows Mitt up 4...and this poll has one of the BEST track records in PA....so I am not surprised Caddell would see private polling showing Mitt up in PA....

As for Gravis on PA....not surprising either...again Obama is stuck in that 47-48 area and he is KNOWN!

But look Gravis uses Plus 8 Dem sample in PA in 2012 yet in 2008 Obama won PA by double digits! Yet Gravis also uses Plus 8 Dem sample in OH yet Obama only won OH by 4.7 percent (5). So think about that? Shows you how skewed the OH polls really are!

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 22, 2012 10:46 AM (HDcKc)

178

JEF = Jug Eared Fuck

TFG = That Fucking Guy

Posted by: wheatie at October 22, 2012 10:46 AM (ipkPX)

179 140 Is Ohio where Luntz gets all his dunces?
Seriously, who is undecided at this point?

I don't think there are that many undecided here. They either a) don't want to admit that they aren't voting for Obama, or b) are only undecided in the sense that they don't know if they wan to vote for Romney or not vote at all. I can't imagine anyone here is undecided about Obama.

Posted by: Mullaney at October 22, 2012 10:47 AM (s8XaI)

180

Outlier is a French word....pronounced "oot-lee-ay."

Outlier is what happens after she wears a bustier for you

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 22, 2012 10:47 AM (DRgeg)

181 Jug Eared F**k

and

That F'n Guy

Posted by: Phthirus pubis at October 22, 2012 10:47 AM (Vh0f5)

182

150 somebody school me-

what is an 'outlier' ?
Posted by: Jones in CO at October 22, 2012 02:39 PM (8sCoq)

Which of these is not like the others?

An outlier is a fluke. E.g. - if women typically sleep with someone after 3 to 5 dates, a fluke would sleep with anyone on the first date.

Posted by: Roy at October 22, 2012 10:47 AM (VndSC)

183 174 Posted by: tasker at October 22, 2012 02:43 PM (r2PLg) Huh? Outlier is a French word....pronounced "oot-lee-ay." Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 22, 2012 02:45 PM (2b4yb) ______________ Damn it don't get my dyslexia flaring.

Posted by: tasker at October 22, 2012 10:47 AM (r2PLg)

184 An"outlier" is a result that falls largely out or off that trend line .

Posted by: tasker at October 22, 2012 02:43 PM (r2PLg)

--------------------------------------

Or opinions that always call out pointy elbows.

Posted by: Soona at October 22, 2012 10:47 AM (V6eom)

185 What does the grey shaded rows in RCP mean?

Ace forgot to close a tag.

Posted by: fluffy at October 22, 2012 10:47 AM (z9HTb)

186 "Jugged eared f*ck and That F*cking Guy."

Thanks, that was bothering me.

Posted by: Trying to catch up at October 22, 2012 10:47 AM (71LDo)

187 Is it wrong of me to want to Lance Armstrong Obama? I mean, just write him out of the historical record.

I think the name you're looking for is Hatshepsut.

Posted by: comatus at October 22, 2012 10:47 AM (qaVK+)

188 I will bet you Obama manages to work the following into the conversation:

1. He won the Nobel Peace Prize(to which Romney can say, so what)
2. He got us out of Iraq (no he didn't, that was already agreed to, and he managed to screw that up)
3. Europe loves him (except he didn't get the Chicago Olympics)

Posted by: Miss Marple at October 22, 2012 10:48 AM (GoIUi)

189 173 OT: What do JEF and TGF stand for?

Posted by: Trying to catch up at October 22, 2012 02:45 PM (71LDo)

Jug Eared Fuck and This Fuckin Guy.

Posted by: dananjcon at October 22, 2012 10:48 AM (eavT+)

190 Geez wheatie. What? Do you think this is the Over Night Thread or something?

:0

Posted by: Phthirus pubis at October 22, 2012 10:48 AM (Vh0f5)

191 Posted by: WalrusRex at October 22, 2012 02:46 PM (XUKZU)

More accurately....the probability of an outlier being correct is less than the probability of the other samples that cluster together on the graph.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 22, 2012 10:48 AM (2b4yb)

192 I know!
I Know!
Say you were asking people, "Just how fucking dumb are you?" and were able to assign a numeric value to the dumbness.
Someone from Ohio would be an outlier, towards the really really dumb end of the scale.
It's Science.

Posted by: VW Zao at October 22, 2012 10:49 AM (I7O5y)

193 An outlier is a fluke. E.g. - if women typicallysleep with someone after 3 to 5 dates, a fluke would sleep with anyone on the first date. Posted by: Roy at October 22, 2012 02:47 PM (VndSC) --------------------------------------------------------- A Fluke will sleep with someone without a date.

Posted by: Truck Monkey at October 22, 2012 10:49 AM (jucos)

194

Send lawyers, guns and money to Ohio.

It's going to be close.

Posted by: Max Entropy at October 22, 2012 10:49 AM (a25Uz)

195 what is an 'outlier' ? Sooth has it right. When you plot statistics, they usually form into what people know as the bell curve. The samples that fall in or near the middle of the curve are known as SD (statistical deviation) 0. The size (number of samples included- more or less) of an SD is based on sample size... and some other things I don't remember. Most bell curves are numbered with 0 at center, +/- 1 next (on each side), +/-2 each side after that. The "outlying" (that is: furthest from SD0) groupings are "outliers." Think of letter grades in school. In a true bell curve grading system, SD0 is a C, SD+1 is a B, SD-1 is a D, SD+2 or greater is an A, and SD-2 or greater is an F. As and Fs are "outliers."

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at October 22, 2012 10:49 AM (nUH8H)

196 Wasn't there a poll that found only 9% of those contacted participated in polls?

Posted by: BignJames at October 22, 2012 10:50 AM (j7iSn)

197 I would not want to be Obama tonight. He will be on the defensive all night. He can only say he killed OBL once or twice, after that what has he got?

NOTHING, except four dead Americans that were "bumps in the road".

This is going to be a blood bath. It is going to seal the deal!

Pudding and popcorn futures sky rocket.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 22, 2012 10:50 AM (wR+pz)

198 "Ace forgot to close a tag."

Posted by: fluffy at October 22, 2012 02:47 PM (z9HTb)

Oh, fuck! I almost choked on my coffee.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 22, 2012 10:50 AM (2b4yb)

199

Saturday Night Live did a skit about that part of the last debate...where Mama Cowley asissted Barky in his lie.

And they continued the fucking Lie!

They portrayed Mitt as the one who was making a whine to Crowley!

They portrayed Barky as the one who was telling the truth!

I...really....do....hate...NBC.

Posted by: wheatie at October 22, 2012 10:50 AM (ipkPX)

200 So the ipsos being tied ... is that good or bad? What were previous results?

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 22, 2012 10:51 AM (AiZkN)

201 Damn I caught cooties from Hellen Thomas.

Ewwwww geroff me. argggghhhh.

quick someone douse me in gasoline and light it .

NO wait!!!

Posted by: Jcw46 at October 22, 2012 10:51 AM (Vh0f5)

202 OT/

I really, really, REALLY hope Romney surprises Barack tonight with the fact that Valerie Jarret gets tax-funded secret-service protection.

That is the kind of ugly fact that can make the public turn on you in a bad way.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 22, 2012 10:51 AM (UypUQ)

203 Wasn't there a poll that found only 9% of those contacted participated in polls?

Posted by: BignJames at October 22, 2012 02:50 PM (j7iSn)

-----------------------------------------------

We need a poll polling pollsters. Seriously.

Posted by: Soona at October 22, 2012 10:52 AM (V6eom)

204 These guys will be the game changers!

NSFW language. I denounce myself in advance, but this is funny.

http://tinyurl.com/9c3cko5

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 22, 2012 10:52 AM (wR+pz)

205 Somebody broke the bloooooogggg!

Posted by: VW Zao at October 22, 2012 10:53 AM (I7O5y)

206

193 Geez wheatie. What? Do you think this is the Over Night Thread or something?

Is this a fucking joke?

Posted by: wheatie at October 22, 2012 10:53 AM (ipkPX)

207 I don't know how Obama can be ahead in Nevada. Everyone I talk to is voting for Romney. We live in Vegas. Even yesterday, I was at the grocery store and there was a gay couple, both wearing Romney/Ryan t-shirts. My son's name is Ryan and saw 'his' name on the shirt and shouted across the produce section over to the couple, so we started chatting. They said that amongst their gay friends that are voting, 1/2 are voting for Romney.

Since my son is out of school tomorrow we are going to the Romney/Ryan rally tomorrow at the Henderson Pavillion.

Posted by: Agent P at October 22, 2012 10:55 AM (fPmeR)

208 195 Someone from Ohio would be an outlier, towards the really really dumb end of the scale.
It's Science.

Why the hate on Ohio? Ohio is at least in play. What about those Democratic strongholds like California, Massachusetts, etc.? Hell, what about Minnesota? They were the only state to vote for Mondale for crissakes.

Posted by: Mullaney at October 22, 2012 10:56 AM (s8XaI)

209 If Obama cant break 47% at this late date, I think he is done.

Posted by: mikey at October 22, 2012 10:57 AM (kmxWt)

210 **In 2008, the D/R/I was 39/31/30, while in 2010 it was 36/37/28** Meh, maybe it should be even stevens. However, these numbers still seem BS'y ... where's the points that R gets for his lead in independents? This is nervewracking, but it's still better than it was in 2008, trying to spin 6 point deficits to bad polls

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 22, 2012 11:04 AM (QxSug)

211 Q: "What's round at both ends, and Hi in the middle?" A: "Me!"

Posted by: Andy Sullivan at October 22, 2012 11:04 AM (KZi9D)

212

"Our Vaginas are not WMDs"

You haven't seen us naked.

Posted by: Code Pink at October 22, 2012 11:08 AM (L7hol)

213 @210, Well, Reid was able to take out his challenger, there's some powerful corruption out there.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 22, 2012 11:08 AM (QxSug)

214 TGF that goat fucker

Posted by: sTevo at October 22, 2012 11:08 AM (sYewh)

215 "Our Vaginas are not WMDs"

You haven't seen us naked.

Posted by: Code Pink at October 22, 2012 03:08 PM (L7hol)

No, that would be a unilateral disarmament treaty

Posted by: Red Shirt at October 22, 2012 11:08 AM (FIDMq)

216

@216 Sharron Angle was not a strong candidate at all. I still voted for her, but it was more of a "Anyone but Reid" vote.

Posted by: Agent P at October 22, 2012 11:09 AM (fPmeR)

217 Just delivered my ballot, and that of the War Dept to the courthouse. Lady in front of me is a known Obama voter. I was glad to slip two Romney votes on top of her. This county will go 2-1 for Romney anyway, I told myself.

Posted by: Meremortal at October 22, 2012 11:10 AM (1Y+hH)

218 219 @216 Sharron Angle was not a strong candidate at all. I still voted for her, but it was more of a "Anyone but Reid" vote. Posted by: Agent P at October 22, 2012 03:09 PM (fPmeR) _________________ Probably the other proof of this-- Sandoval won on that same election night--by a landslide.

Posted by: tasker at October 22, 2012 11:16 AM (r2PLg)

219 46Darden owns Olive Garden, Longhorns, Red Lobster, Bahama Breeze and
several other restaurants. That's a lot of people having their hours and
income cut.

Darden's CEO Clarence Otis is also a Dem donor.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider

Might be the plan. They will need a lot more employees if they want the same work done with lesser hours from each employee. The net result is bogus more jobs in the next report, despite there being no increase in employment (total hours). Everything about Obama has big asterisk next to it.

Posted by: Dirks Strewn at October 22, 2012 11:24 AM (VLifP)

220 I live in NE Ohio.
I can guaran-damn-tee you Ohio ain't "tied".

Posted by: LeBron Steinman at October 22, 2012 11:43 AM (jfWE9)

221 Romney needs to go to Ohio and just camp out there until Election Day.

Posted by: miikeb at October 22, 2012 11:52 AM (3hezO)

222

46 Darden owns Olive Garden, Longhorns, Red Lobster, Bahama Breeze and several other restaurants. That's a lot of people having their hours and
income cut.

Darden's CEO Clarence Otis is also a Dem donor.

Darden was one of those chosen few who got a Waiver from Obamacare.

Just like McDonalds.

Most restaurants offer a pared-down version of Health Insurance...called 'Mini Med'.

It's based on hours...I think.

Posted by: wheatie at October 22, 2012 11:57 AM (ipkPX)

223 zzz

Posted by: Gerry at October 22, 2012 12:28 PM (RsutZ)

224 I simply can't imagine Obama winning. I simply can't imagine an America that would vote for four more years of this. Inconceivable.

Posted by: tbozz at October 22, 2012 12:30 PM (x9s9/)

225 it would've been nice for romney to hit TFG on being the waiver president. like letting lead child's toy culprit be waived from strigent rules that killed competition.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 22, 2012 12:45 PM (QxSug)

226 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at October 22, 2012 02:14 PM (6o4Fb)

227 Sorry, an incumbent who's tied at 46% two weeks before the election is toast.

Both those polls are "Romney takes Ohio."

Posted by: Greg Q at October 22, 2012 02:38 PM (cQAlw)

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