Ace of Spades HQ

June 13, 2012

The Three Rules on Presidential Elections
— CAC

RULE #1
EVERY TIME THE WHITE HOUSE HAS FLIPPED, THE WINNING PARTY SNAGS A STATE IT FAILED TO GRAB THE LAST TIME THEY FLIPPED IT. Those states may have been new to the union, or the demographics simply changed, which is the case since the 1960's. But the winning party in a flip always, without fail, gains states.

Republicans' first flip from the Democrats: 1860
Democrats' first flip from the Republicans: 1884

White House Flips since 1884:
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1888 back to R: NE,CO,KS
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1892 back to D: CA,WI,IL
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1896 back to R: ND,KY,WV,MD,DE,NJ,CT
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1912 back to D: OR,NV,AZ,NM,OK,CO,ID,MT,WY,ND,IA,OH,ME,MA,RI,NH
1920 back to R: MO,TN,OK,KS,NE,SD,MT,ID,WY,UT,CO,NV,AZ,NM,WA
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1932 back to D: WA,UT,MN,CA,SD
1952 back to R: FL,TX,VA
1960 back to D: PA,DE,CT,HI
1968 back to R: NC,SC,AK
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1976 back to D: WI,OH,KY,TN,FL
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1980 back to R: WA,MI,TX,PA,NY,CT,MA,ME
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1992 back to D: MT,WA,OR,NV,CA,CO,NM,IA,IL,MI,NJ,CT,VT,NH,ME
2000 back to R: WV,GA
2008 back to D: IN,NC,FL,VA,NE2

Note: this rule holds before the 1860s, but parties and party status changed from 1796 thru 1856, so we are focusing on the last 150 years with the modern parties.

RULE #2
IF AN INCUMBENT IS DEFEATED, THE VICTORIOUS PARTY GAINS MORE THAN ONE STATE IN THE FLIP RULE.
From the above, the minimum number of states gained has been two, the maximum is, well, not very pretty for the loser. Again, if the national desire to flip is strong enough to boot an incumbent, that rage spreads farther than a few electoral votes.

RULE #3
IF AN ELECTED PRESIDENT WINS RE-ELECTION, THEY GAIN STATES WHEN RE-ELECTED. They may lose a few they won at their first go, but they always pick up some. (Ex: Bush in 2004 lost New Hampshire but gained New Mexico and Iowa)

YEAR: STATES WON IN RE-ELECT NOT WON IN INITIAL ELECTION
1864: WV,MO,KS,NV
1872: LA,NJ,DE,NY,OR,FL
1900: WA,UT,WY,SD,NE,KS
1916: UT,WA,CA
1936: PA,DE,CT
1956: LA,KY,WV
1972: WA,HI,TX,MN,MI,WV,MD,NY,PA,CT,RI,ME
1984: HI,GA,MD,WV,RI
1996: FL,AZ
2004: IA,NM

Now, which of these rules bodes well for President Obama?

Posted by: CAC at 05:35 PM | Comments (107)
Post contains 352 words, total size 2 kb.

1 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at June 13, 2012 05:36 PM (Xb3hu)

2 POINT OF ORDER, CHAIR. MOTION FOR NEW RULE: NEVER USE CAPS WHEN YOU WANT TO BE UNDERSTOOD.

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] at June 13, 2012 05:38 PM (famk3)

3 Incumbent, not incumbant.....

Posted by: old one at June 13, 2012 05:40 PM (iGfXl)

4 Incumbent. times fifty.

Posted by: Oldcat at June 13, 2012 05:41 PM (z1N6a)

5 It's "incumbent".

And the all-caps is fucking hard on the eyes.

Also, get off my lawn.

Posted by: Andy at June 13, 2012 05:41 PM (9yau1)

6 Needz moar plaid map.

Posted by: alexthechick at June 13, 2012 05:43 PM (Gk3SS)

7 Sorry, I don't think your Flip rule means a lot. Just fringe variation, plus the fact that the home state of the Pres and Veep are often selected to produce this exact effect.

Posted by: Oldcat at June 13, 2012 05:43 PM (z1N6a)

8 CAC - do you start mumbling these stats in your sleep and during sex and stuff?

Take a day off, man! You are gonna be a burnout by November!

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at June 13, 2012 05:44 PM (UTq/I)

Miss Marple's rule:

When Dallas appears on TV, the incumbent democrat is toast.

JR has returned on TNT, and they have made the anti-oil people look llike jerks, so far.

It's an omen, I tells ya!

Posted by: Miss Marple at June 13, 2012 05:44 PM (GoIUi)

10 Sorry, I don't think your Flip rule means a lot. Just fringe variation, plus the fact that the home state of the Pres and Veep are often selected to produce this exact effect. Posted by: Oldcat at June 13, 2012 09:43 PM (z1N6a) A fringe variation wouldn't happen at every single instance. It is a by-product of the shifting mood of the electorate that results in the sacking of a party.

Posted by: CAC at June 13, 2012 05:45 PM (WVV74)

11 I can't take this shit anymore. SMOD Come!

Posted by: Beto at June 13, 2012 05:45 PM (lpWVn)

12 And if a Frog had side pockets, he'd carry a handgun....

Posted by: Beto at June 13, 2012 05:48 PM (lpWVn)

13 My head hurts....

Posted by: T at June 13, 2012 05:48 PM (D3kCG)

14 Yeah it's hard to think of a state that Obama might take this time that he didn't take last time.
I guess the only one that immediately springs to mind is MO. But that is tough to contemplate.

Posted by: chemjeff at June 13, 2012 05:49 PM (LK3ef)

2008 - Hope & Change

2012 - "Its not my fault"
2013 - Would you like fries with that?

Posted by: Richard Head at June 13, 2012 05:50 PM (e8kgV)

16 This couldn't wait for tomorrow? You seriously had to get this out at 9:30 on a Wednesday night? Really?

Posted by: Joffen, fucking sunshine patriot at June 13, 2012 05:50 PM (wV/lv)

17 Don't worry. Obama's got me this time.

Posted by: Joe "Joe" Biden at June 13, 2012 05:50 PM (LK3ef)

18 Coolczech, I showed up at the yahoo chat. Bring your friends.

Posted by: dagny at June 13, 2012 05:52 PM (WCAIB)

19 OK, so Romney should win at least 3 states that W didn't win in 2000 or 2004...

Wild guess? Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania flip at the least. Oregon is another possibility.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at June 13, 2012 05:52 PM (MKp8V)

20 Of course there is also the somewhat likely electoral college tie scenario.
Obama takes NH, VA, PA, MI
Romney takes IA, OH, FL, IN, NC, WI, NE2
that, and everybody else the same as in 2008, results in a tie

Posted by: chemjeff at June 13, 2012 05:53 PM (LK3ef)

21 Being more of a graphical type person, it took me a bit to work through it, but my answer is, "none of them" Yee Haw! (assuming this represents more than 'fringe variation')

Posted by: Grumpy the Younger at June 13, 2012 05:53 PM (jts1f)

22 This couldn't wait for tomorrow? You seriously had to get this out at 9:30 on a Wednesday night? Really? Because heaven knows this time of the week is usually hopping. Hmmm what colors should make up the Moron Tartan?

Posted by: alexthechick at June 13, 2012 05:54 PM (Gk3SS)

23 o ?

Posted by: ConcealedKerry or SubMitt at June 13, 2012 05:54 PM (nonzP)

24 Oregon is not going to flip.
Oregon is the least libtard of the left coast states, but it is still pretty damn libtard.
If Oregon flips, it means ME, NJ, NV, CO, NM flip too.

Posted by: chemjeff at June 13, 2012 05:55 PM (LK3ef)

25 I need a spreadsheet. Does this come with a spreadsheet?

Posted by: Democracy Kenobi at June 13, 2012 05:55 PM (d6TfZ)

26 15 2008 - Hope Change 2012 - "Its not my fault" 2013 - Would you like fries with that? Posted by: Richard Head at June 13, 2012 09:50 PM (e8kgV) I actually worked for a Richard Head, Peter Boyle and Sandy Cox...all at the same time. True story.

Posted by: Cravin Morehead at June 13, 2012 05:56 PM (KZi9D)

27 Of course there is also the somewhat likely electoral college tie scenario. Obama takes NH, VA, PA, MI Romney takes IA, OH, FL, IN, NC, WI, NE2 that, and everybody else the same as in 2008, results in a tie Posted by: chemjeff at June 13, 2012 09:53 PM (LK3ef) In your scenario, all three rules hold. Rule #2 highlights that in the past the # has been at least three,but 2 states flipped (IA and WI), NONE of the McCain States flip, and since its a 269-269 tie and goes to the House, Romney wins.

Posted by: CAC at June 13, 2012 05:57 PM (WVV74)

28 Off, smelly sock!

Posted by: Hobbitopoly at June 13, 2012 05:57 PM (d6TfZ)

29 Rule #4 - when the country flips you off, you aren't the incumbent anymore.

Posted by: Roy at June 13, 2012 05:58 PM (tiOTz)

30 since its a 269-269 tie and goes to the House, Romney wins.

Posted by: CAC at June 13, 2012 09:57 PM (WVV74)

and it means riots in the streets

Posted by: chemjeff at June 13, 2012 05:59 PM (LK3ef)

31 and it means riots in the streets Posted by: chemjeff at June 13, 2012 09:59 PM (LK3ef) I live in the burbs. So nany-nany-nah-nah.

Posted by: CAC at June 13, 2012 06:00 PM (WVV74)

32 I live in the burbs. So nany-nany-nah-nah.

Posted by: CAC at June 13, 2012 10:00 PM (WVV74)

well I don't. and if it does look like it will be that close come October or so, I may actually have to get some supplies.

Posted by: chemjeff at June 13, 2012 06:03 PM (LK3ef)

33 So help me if there is a tie I will definitely go something something.

Posted by: alexthechick at June 13, 2012 06:03 PM (Gk3SS)

34 31 and it means riots in the streets

We all know that there is one industry that has been going great "guns" for the last 4 years. A Barack loss would mean that folks get to use all those products.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oM8l3X_7Hkg

Posted by: Richard Head at June 13, 2012 06:03 PM (e8kgV)

35 If BarryO doesn't get his african-american percentages back up and get them excited we could see ten states flip. The flip phenomenom is a real effect, it is difficult for an incumbent to build a new coalition if the voting demographics change.

Posted by: Jean at June 13, 2012 06:04 PM (5HAgy)

36 34 So help me if there is a tie I will definitely go something something.

Posted by: alexthechick at June 13, 2012 10:03 PM (Gk3SS)

does the "something" involve stompy boots?

Posted by: chemjeff at June 13, 2012 06:04 PM (LK3ef)

37 I remember they called it for Reagan, in AZ our polls closed at 8pm and I was in the voting booth and a guy at the judges table blurted out "It's a landslide for Reagan."

Posted by: Beto at June 13, 2012 06:04 PM (lpWVn)

38 Jesus Christ. Can we get some more abbreviations in this post?

Posted by: someguy at June 13, 2012 06:05 PM (sEXZ/)

39 Also, this post seems utterly devoid of the sufficient amount of capital letters. Is this KOS?

Posted by: someguy at June 13, 2012 06:06 PM (sEXZ/)

I fail to see what this has to do with Wisconsin.

Perhaps a map or graph would illuminate this situation.

Posted by: Jaws at June 13, 2012 06:06 PM (A3yiq)

41 I'm gonna need new glasses and a decoder ring.

Posted by: Beto at June 13, 2012 06:07 PM (lpWVn)

42 The flip phenomenom is a real effect, it is difficult for an incumbent to build a new coalition if the voting demographics change. Posted by: Jean at June 13, 2012 10:04 PM (5HAgy) You just won the internets. If the demo's change enough to force a party out, they will naturally cede states to the winner the party of whom failed to get the last time they flipped things.

Posted by: CAC at June 13, 2012 06:07 PM (WVV74)

43 Yeah, could we see a county-by-county breakdown of how the presidential vote will take place in Wisconsin?

Posted by: chemjeff at June 13, 2012 06:08 PM (LK3ef)

44 The dims will call it an unexpected constitutional crisis.
The end of dumbocracy

Posted by: Beto at June 13, 2012 06:09 PM (lpWVn)

45 we could see ten states flip.

Even if it's just NE2, IN, NC, FL, IA, NH, OH that is not enough to win, and that's 7 states flipping.

Posted by: chemjeff at June 13, 2012 06:12 PM (LK3ef)

46 CO was so stupid in 2010 I would not be surprised if we stay blue even if only CA, NY, WA and IL are the other blue states.

Posted by: PaleRider at June 13, 2012 06:13 PM (dkExz)

47 Well, 6-1/3 states flipping.

Posted by: chemjeff at June 13, 2012 06:13 PM (LK3ef)

48 CAC does great work here. But this seems like data-mining. I've seen tons of "rules" like this that people use to predict stock prices. Data-mining rules always work ... until they don't. With any set of data (stock prices, elections, tv ratings, etc, etc) I can go back and find "rules" that do great in back-tested data. I'm very skeptical of the predictive value of data-mining, though.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at June 13, 2012 06:14 PM (R+6Q+)

49 I'm very skeptical of the predictive value of data-mining, though.

Well it's hard to find rules in the stock market that have worked for 150+ years though.

Posted by: chemjeff at June 13, 2012 06:15 PM (LK3ef)

50 2000 back to R: WV,GA RULE #2 IF AN INCUMBENT IS DEFEATED, THE VICTORIOUS PARTY GAINS MORE THAN ONE STATE IN THE FLIP RULE. From the above, the minimum number of states gained has been three

Posted by: Underground Vulgarian at June 13, 2012 06:15 PM (oipCQ)

51 What happened to the map in the sidebar on the front page?

Posted by: happy little trees at June 13, 2012 06:16 PM (bqjJT)

52 Bucking Ofama

Posted by: Beto at June 13, 2012 06:19 PM (lpWVn)

53 There comes a point where ObamaÂ’s whining about George Bush will make people realize that perhaps they should elect a Republican so at least there will be a valid reason to blame them for the countryÂ’s ills. If Obama isnÂ’t up to the job, why havenÂ’t the Democrats found somebody who can ? The last thing this country needs now is a whining little jerk-weed who canÂ’t do anything right. Oh poor Barack ... it isn't his fault. Well, I don't give a flying about some prissy POS who only thinks it's cool to the President. Who gives money to campaign for a fool like this ? I pity the fool, but I'm not one, and never will be one of them.

Posted by: Richard Hertz at June 13, 2012 06:19 PM (e8kgV)

Needz moar plaid map.

No map, no fap.

Posted by: fluffy at June 13, 2012 06:20 PM (3SvjA)

55 RULE #2 IF AN INCUMBENT IS DEFEATED, THE VICTORIOUS PARTY GAINS MORE THAN ONE STATE IN THE FLIP RULE. From the above, the minimum number of states gained has been three Posted by: Underground Vulgarian at June 13, 2012 10:15 PM (oipCQ) There was no incumbent in 2000. It was an open race between VP Gore and Gov. George Bush. The 2nd rule is if the incumbent is defeated (not nec the party, but an actual President getting defeated in their re-elect attempt).

Posted by: CAC at June 13, 2012 06:21 PM (WVV74)

56 Posted by: CAC at June 13, 2012 10:21 PM (WVV74) Ah so

Posted by: Underground Vulgarian at June 13, 2012 06:22 PM (oipCQ)

57 ATTENTION: THIS IS AN UPDATE FROM THE DESPERATE SKANK EMERGENCY NETWORK: Madonna, having flashed her tit, is now showing off her ass. That is all.

Posted by: joncelli at June 13, 2012 06:31 PM (708Gm)

58 Well there's another likely way there could be a tie, it appears:
Romney takes NE2, IA, OH, FL, NC, IN, NH, NV
Obama takes what he took in 2008, including VA, MI, PA
that also is a tie

this nonzero probability of a tie worries me

Posted by: chemjeff at June 13, 2012 06:33 PM (LK3ef)

59 53 is correct. People are hurting , making less, paying more for food, gasoline, healthcare while watching their home prices fall.
Last thing they want to hear from Hope and Change is its still Bushs' fault.

What they hear is I'm a whiney ass, big eared, A.A. whimp with no solutions that work but a bag full of your money to give to the don't wanna workers and my Union pals so if you elect me I will spend more of your money and in four more years you will be light years worse than you are even Now! Forward Ho!

Posted by: ConcealedKerry or SubMitt at June 13, 2012 06:36 PM (nonzP)

60 My flip list in order In How did McCain lose this one, was he on the ballot Nc From gay marriage right to gay adoption, book it Fl Absent some Zimmerman circus Oh Slowly coming around Va 24% AA unemployment in Norfolk Nh ? Wi Darth Preibus delivers Ia Corn sluts? or not Pa It there Mitt, go take it Nm Mrs VP, I think this could be the firewall Mi Probably a bridge too far but tease me Nv Reid's union mob machine's last gasp Nj Can the fat man deliver? De if Pa and Nj go, so does De

Posted by: Jean at June 13, 2012 06:37 PM (liPvR)

61 Ask yourself this:
Do you want to re-elect a guy whose budget got zero votes in either house of Congress...... Twice!
Well do ya Punk?

Posted by: ConcealedKerry or SubMitt at June 13, 2012 06:38 PM (nonzP)

Watching Dallas tonight reminds me of how many double-dealers there are in politics.

What is Clinton up to? What about Santorum and Ron Paul (and the Paulbots, who seem to operate on their own)? Who is in charge of Obama?

Lots of possible conspiracies in the background.

Posted by: Miss Marple at June 13, 2012 06:42 PM (GoIUi)

63 Hate to break in on this, but is one of the cob-loggers around? I've got something that's probably pretty hot and needs exposure (initial post up at my place) but it needs way more exposure than my little blog is going to get for it.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at June 13, 2012 06:43 PM (nUH8H)

64 More on topic: It stands to reason that in a "flip" year, the challenging party will win more states than they did last time- if they won the same or fewer, there wouldn't be a flip. So.... I'm not sure what your rule is trying to say other than "math works."

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at June 13, 2012 06:45 PM (nUH8H)

65 Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at June 13, 2012 10:45 PM (nUH8H) fwd'd to the rest of the cobs for you, Allen.

Posted by: CAC at June 13, 2012 06:47 PM (WVV74)

66 Flatbrush, it isnt data mining, it is a simple bucket problem. The electoral votes can only represent the electorate in so many patterns.

Posted by: Jean at June 13, 2012 06:51 PM (OTtAK)

"It stands to reason that in a "flip" year, the challenging party will win more states than they did last time- if they won the same or fewer, there wouldn't be a flip."

My thoughts, too.

Posted by: Shank at June 13, 2012 06:51 PM (KedXR)

68 Hit AllenG's blog. He found something quite interesting and embarrassing if you have a shred of human decency (union members need not apply).

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at June 13, 2012 06:58 PM (nEUpB)

Someone call me?

Posted by: Flip Wilson's ghost at June 13, 2012 06:58 PM (fnxKl)

70 What's going on in NH? Has Obama got that state locked up? I would have thought that a moderate like Romney would have played well there.

Posted by: Greg at June 13, 2012 07:02 PM (j+Xk7)

71 Someone call me? Posted by: Flip Wilson's ghost

Yea ... I vaguely remember you being somewhat relevant in the late 70's

What was your schtick again?

Posted by: Zombie Kim Il-sung [/i] [/b] at June 13, 2012 07:03 PM (famk3)

I have yet to decide if this is a total coincidence in the same manner of the AFC/NFC determining the comming year's economic outlook.....or if this is indeed insightful.

Lemme get my magic 8 ball and find out....

Posted by: MrObvious at June 13, 2012 07:06 PM (t4++D)

Obviously CAC missed something.

He does not show Minnesota as going republican.

/sarc I'd love to see us vote republican one more time before I die (and I am only 50 and intend to live about 30 more years), but the Mpls StPaul cities will keep dragging us to the democrat column.

Posted by: rd at June 13, 2012 07:07 PM (9sUlj)

74 In tiddly winks, if you flip a tiddle to the right once, on the next play you will end up flipping a wink to the left twice. Unless the cup moves to the right. Then the tiddles go left and the flipping is reversed from the opposite of the wink side. Bank on it.

Posted by: Margarita DeVille at June 13, 2012 07:09 PM (C8mVl)

75 I have the feeling that if Choomer does crap the election in November, that we may be seeing the Rodney King riots (version 2.0) playing out in the major cities (DC, NYC, CHI, LA, DET, ATL, etc.). Many of his minions will be acting out... making Bush/Gore look like a daytime soap opera.

Posted by: Mjölnir the banhammer at June 13, 2012 07:11 PM (Jls4P)

76 What about the rest of the 57 states?

Posted by: TexasJew at June 13, 2012 07:12 PM (z8HSj)

Has there ever been a president, in the history of our nation, who uses the words "I" and "ME" as much as Obama?

Posted by: fresh at June 13, 2012 07:21 PM (O7ksG)

78 Okay, slightly less "ZOMG!" update now up.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at June 13, 2012 07:25 PM (nUH8H)

79 75, If I was a flithy rich guy, I would distribute free shotguns to the members in good standing of the mainline aa churches.

Posted by: Jean at June 13, 2012 07:27 PM (EBBBm)

80 Suck it, Greg

Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at June 13, 2012 07:27 PM (QTHTd)

81 Of course, these kinds of "conventional wisdom" rules are just that - rules made to be broken. Like the old NFL rule that no running back to win the rushing title had ever won the Super Bowl - until Emmitt Smith did it. So nobody has either won / lost without flipping a state - UNTIL THEY DO.

Posted by: deadrody at June 13, 2012 07:27 PM (b2D8X)

Obama says his campaign "is doing fine".

Posted by: NoBama at June 13, 2012 07:31 PM (gKz+d)

83 No nice way to put this ... these posts are meaningless.

Posted by: Gerry at June 13, 2012 07:32 PM (eXa4C)

84 The key to CACs chart isnt what the challengers do, its what the sucessful invumbents do. How did they use their first term to win a state they lost? What has Obama done to do that? Saved the coal industry in WV, no; greased the skids for a pipeline and created a bunch of jobs in ND, no; built a political force in MO to carry Clare over the finish line, no; etc. Where has he adjusted fire and used the Presidency to a political advantage?

Posted by: Jean at June 13, 2012 07:35 PM (EBBBm)

85 I'm worried.... Anybody seen Biden lately? Did they put him back in the dungeon? Poor guy.

Posted by: NoBama at June 13, 2012 07:35 PM (gKz+d)

86 Last time I checked all it takes is 270. It doesn't matter how you get it. Republicans basically have 6 extra EC Votes from redistricting and 1 from Nebraska's renegade Congressional District. He should flip Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, NC, and Indiana without a huge amount of trouble. Without Virginia, that gives the Dems 270-268. He might want Bob McDonnell as his VP to secure it.

I'll reserve judgment on flipping Michigan, Oregon, and Penn. Wisconsin might be a pickup but it has gone Dem since 1984 so don't stake all your hopes on it. I have yet to see him with a lead in NH, Nevada or Virginia. He should win Nevada because of the economy and the demographics but I haven't seen much polling from the state. He should be ideally suited to win NH but no polling to indicate it.

I maintain if Romney can't win Virginia then he's fucked. It is frankly a state we cannot afford to abandon in future and let turn into another Penn- you know a perennial cocktease. I find it difficult to believe that he might lose Virginia but gain Michigan.

We should not get ahead of ourselves with the 40-state sweep talk. Unseating any incumbent is difficult- including a narcissistic manchild. Once I see him with a solid lead consistently in Virginia and Nevada then I'll feel a lot better about entertaining the possibility of blue wall states.

Posted by: Sean at June 13, 2012 07:41 PM (1jv9o)

87 Jean:
Add "Things the incumbent did for states he -added- in the last election." Meaning "We voted for you, so... what have you done for us?"

2008 back to D: IN,NC,FL,VA,NE2

I can't think of anything resonating with any of these states other than the possibility that FL "buys" his immigration stance, or VA-as-a-DC-suburb.

And that's pretty freaking weak sauce.

Posted by: Al at June 13, 2012 07:44 PM (MzQOZ)

88 Oregon would need to flip along the I-5 corridor (Portland - Salem - Eugene) areas for the state to turn red. Unemployment is at 8.4% and gas has finally started to go below $4.00 a gallon. As long as the libs in the corridor are big fans of government telling them what to do and spending money on "green projects", Choomer will hang onto OR.

Posted by: Mjölnir the banhammer at June 13, 2012 07:47 PM (Jls4P)

89 Of course... Drew M. doesn't think much of my little scoop.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channeling Breitbart at June 13, 2012 07:50 PM (nUH8H)

90 Illinois goes red. You heard it here first. Ogabe needs to be tied to Gov. Quinn and the chaos that will result in a teacher's strike. You can't go home again Barry.

Posted by: DeepBeam at June 13, 2012 07:55 PM (19uT8)

91 Let me see if I understand this: to come to power, you have to win more states than you did last time. The mind boggles.

Posted by: t-bird at June 13, 2012 07:56 PM (FcR7P)

92 I mean this is the nicest way... PLEASE STOP SCREAMING AT US. And please remember the boy who cried wolf. We've still got almost 5 months to go.

//schoolmarm lecture over//

You do great work CAC, don't need tricks to get us to pay attention. : )

Posted by: Mayday at June 13, 2012 08:04 PM (orrLR)

93 #86

I don't know about Colorado being so easy to flip now, but I agree with the rest of this.

If Romney really does have WI, then he should have Iowa, and Michigan becomes a lot more plausible.

In theory, Romney can still win in any number of ways without VA, though in practice, I'd agree that if he can't flip VA, he probably can't take other harder states.

I'd add that its more about which States Obama alienates (or has already alienated) at this point, more than which ones Romney can persuade to go his way.

Posted by: Looking closely at June 13, 2012 08:08 PM (+PDlV)

94 Al, no. Its about Obama adding two new states. You cant hold on and win again, you have to add new.

Posted by: Jean at June 13, 2012 08:26 PM (RURIy)

95 Va isnt about the DC burbs, they always vote heavy. Its anout AA turn out in the tidewater, conservative AA voters with 24% unemployment. They arent going to bring it for Obama. You want to know why the Mittens campaign came out so early with a shipbuilding push for the navy ...

Posted by: Jean at June 13, 2012 08:32 PM (RURIy)

96 I still think Romney is gonna get PA. But as you always hear around here, lets not start sucking..well you get the point.

Posted by: thunderb at June 13, 2012 08:41 PM (Dnbau)

97 matt cain threw a perfect game for the GIANTS.....YEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAW!

Posted by: phoenixgirl clinging to my bible, gun and coca cola at June 13, 2012 09:02 PM (Ho2rs)

98 125 pitches......damn

Posted by: phoenixgirl clinging to my bible, gun and coca cola at June 13, 2012 09:03 PM (Ho2rs)

99 If current rates of decay persist, all 57 states could be in play by Nov.

Posted by: Purp (@PurpAv) at June 13, 2012 09:25 PM (nB2TB)

100 The reason for Rule 1 is that typically, there are states that have traditions of voting for one party and that continue that tradition even as their ideological ties to that party decrease. Then, when an incumbent of that party becomes unpopular, they suddenly say, "the hell with it," and vote for the party with which they are more compatible. Example: Vermont was a traditionally Republican, albeit very liberal Republican, state. IIRC, it never voted even once for FDR. Naturally, it went for Reagan in both his landslide victories even as it was becoming hippie central, and even stuck with Bush I in 1988. However, with Bush suddenly unpopular in 1992, it voted for Clinton, and has voted strongly Democrat ever since. Wisconsin may be an example in 2012. Rule 2, I would assume, is because there is even more anger at an unpopular incumbent than another candidate in his party. A state with a voting tradition for one party might continue it if they had a new candidate to vote for, but an unpopular incumbent would probably be the straw that broke the camel's back. Frankly, I don't know the reason for Rule 3, although I have observed it before. I assume that presidents just don't get reelected without a large section of the populace thinking they deserve it, no matter how negative they campaign.

Posted by: Ken at June 13, 2012 09:34 PM (ayCbQ)

101 Illinois goes red.
You heard it here first.
Ogabe needs to be tied to Gov. Quinn and the chaos that will result in a teacher's strike.
You can't go home again Barry.

Posted by: DeepBeam at June 13, 2012 11:55 PM (19uT

From your lips to God's ears.

Posted by: Methos, behind enemy lines in Cook County at June 13, 2012 10:30 PM (6LvlL)

102 test

Posted by: soothie at June 14, 2012 02:50 AM (hA+ft)

103 Is CAC the bastard child of Michael Barone?

Posted by: Long Island at June 14, 2012 02:56 AM (kzp9t)

104 #75 I have the feeling that if Choomer does crap the election in November, that we may be seeing the Rodney King riots (version 2.0) playing out in the major cities (DC, NYC, CHI, LA, DET, ATL, etc.). Many of his minions will be acting out... making Bush/Gore look like a daytime soap opera.
<BR>
I don't know. On the one hand, I think about that, because I drive a short but careful route through West Philly twice a day. I'll probably work from home the day after the election. On the other hand, I'm not seeing any fervor leading up to the election, not yet. In 2004 the U Penn students were out in droves trying to sign people up to vote, and the day after the election I entertained myself by seeing how many Kerry/Edwards placards, signs, and billboards I could spot on my three-mile trip. The count was 47, and bear in mind, that didn't count bumper stickers. This year, so far, I've seen maybe five Obama/Biden 2012 stickers. No placards or billboards at all. Maybe it's too early, but maybe for O, it's too late.

Posted by: Snakeophelia at June 14, 2012 03:19 AM (8oNwH)

105 You keep operating under the misapprehension that I will permit an election. Interesting.

Posted by: #OccupyResoluteDesk at June 14, 2012 04:23 AM (RPKTY)

106 Nc From gay marriage right to gay adoption, book it Fl Absent some Zimmerman circus Oh Slowly coming around Va 24% AA unemployment in Norfolk Nh ? Wi Darth Preibus delivers Ia Corn sluts? or not Pa It there Mitt, go take it Nm Mrs VP, I think this could be the firewall Mi Probably a bridge too far but tease me Nv Reid's union mob machine's last gasp Nj Can the fat man deliver? De if Pa and Nj go, so does De Posted by: Jean at June 13, 2012 10:37 PM (liPvR) NC gay marriage convinced me, too, where I thought they wouldn't like Romney before FL Rubio would help, even though they say he wouldn't influence Hispanic voters much, he would campaigning in his home in spanish OH that's a tough one, because they really like Obama and hate Bush in the cities there and this is why I think Romney should pick Rubio instead of Portman and no Martinez VA Romney, McDonnell will go for the cabinet IA unlikely but WI is still fired up so maybe MI and NH legacy wins for Romney NM, NV likely for Obama NJ, PA no way just stop! Everyone wants this to be bizarro 2004, but Romney can pull off a squeaker if he ignores OH and goes for FL and CO. 270towin.com my map has Romney 287 and Obama 251. Romney carries CO, MI, WI, NH, VA, NC, FL. But unless he makes it clear that he actually means to scale back the size of government and address spending cuts (Obamneycare) Romney can go to hell. Sure Obama's worse but if Republicans control Congress whatevs.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at June 14, 2012 04:40 AM (i330i)

107

I dont think it will be even close. Obama will be lucky to get 200 electoral votes and 45% of the popular vote. I think it will get called for Romney by 10 PM EST election night.

Posted by: reitred military at June 14, 2012 05:01 AM (SElov)

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