October 16, 2012
— CAC When you are running for re-election, you try to expand the map if you've had a great first term.
If you don't, then you are on defense.
Maps courtesy RealClearPolitics
There is a shitload for the President to defend, and I don't think we have spent enough time looking at this race in this manner. Always focused on Romney's need to rise to 270, instead of the now-troublesome task for the President to keep 270. With Florida, North Carolina, and, from the looks of it, Virginia and Colorado now trending Romney, the President is ceding a lot, and Mitt is looking at starting more fires. What a difference 90 minutes can make, and that is why we cannot be overconfident or cocky about tonight. Things changed big time October 3rd for Romney. If they change back, the second map becomes critical. If they keep going his way, look for an inverse of the 2008 map soon.
Posted by: CAC at
03:19 PM
| Comments (134)
Post contains 164 words, total size 1 kb.
Posted by: steevy at October 16, 2012 03:22 PM (6o4Fb)
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 16, 2012 03:25 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: logprof at October 16, 2012 03:26 PM (jKE+Z)
Romney- surging too soon. Too early taking up lead. Obama- 'wins' next 2 debates, gains on Romney- takes momentum... takes the lead just before election.. surges to victory!!
Posted by: Mr Wolf, Esq at October 16, 2012 03:27 PM (UIAT6)
Posted by: Jean at October 16, 2012 03:28 PM (UjSt7)
Posted by: Methos is sarcastically mimicking the troll just so it's redundant when he says it at October 16, 2012 03:28 PM (6LvlL)
I wonder what the map looks like in France? (Since Obama's been in power, some say Europe is a leading indicator):
http://tinyurl.com/cxc86ye
Posted by: HtP at October 16, 2012 03:30 PM (jx2j9)
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at October 16, 2012 03:30 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2012 03:31 PM (TMB3S)
Posted by: gerg at October 16, 2012 03:31 PM (LCRYB)
Posted by: LetsRumble2 at October 16, 2012 03:31 PM (dvLAs)
Thing changed on 9/11/2012, when first the Egyptian Embassy was attacked and the it was reported that Americans were killed in Benghazi.
If President Barack Hussein Obama had not supported the Muslim Brotherhood and other dissidents in Egypt and Libya in the Arab Spring, there is NO way either event would have happened.
Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 16, 2012 03:32 PM (zLp5I)
Posted by: Mr. Dave in SPI at October 16, 2012 03:32 PM (S6qGD)
That would be the most awesome debate ever.
Posted by: Torch-Wielding Villager at October 16, 2012 03:32 PM (sTS/8)
I saw that, too. It's a sign of how messed up the polls really are -- Texas isn't really "likely", it's "solid".
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 16, 2012 03:33 PM (4+LTj)
He handles himself masterfully in this format. I've watched about twenty of them so far, and he's as good as he was in the first presidential debate.
I just heard two professors of political science say on the radio that Romney is at a disadvantage here, which means the Democrats don't know about Romney's ability to comport himself in this format any more than most Republicans. That, in turn, means Obama & Co. are unprepared.
Prepare for another bloodbath. Guaranteed.
And I'm cocky. It's time to get cocky, for Christ's sake. Enough of this Olive Oyl "Oh, Dear! Oh, dear!" hand wringing. My cockiness is based in being informed. I've watched Romney perform, and I'm telling you he excels in the town-hall format.
Posted by: Llarry at October 16, 2012 03:33 PM (ydx+F)
Posted by: Truck Monkey at October 16, 2012 03:33 PM (jucos)
Posted by: helen keller at October 16, 2012 03:33 PM (Y//vu)
Posted by: Surrender Monkeys at October 16, 2012 03:33 PM (p82Os)
Some chick on Lou Dobbs talking about how Romney is going to steal her uterus and use it as a hat for New Years Eve.
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 16, 2012 03:33 PM (PHb2k)
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at October 16, 2012 03:34 PM (P6QsQ)
Texas is "likely" Romney?
Somebody mentioned last night that no one has polled Texas for months because, come on.
Posted by: fluffy at October 16, 2012 03:34 PM (O6q63)
Posted by: kqb29 at October 16, 2012 03:35 PM (b1NQB)
Posted by: James Madison at October 16, 2012 03:35 PM (Il8JM)
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 16, 2012 03:36 PM (wR+pz)
Posted by: Greg *Stuck at the glory hole* at October 16, 2012 03:36 PM (/YJYi)
Posted by: Stoned-Out Old Hippy at October 16, 2012 03:37 PM (sTS/8)
Posted by: Underground Vulgarian at October 16, 2012 03:37 PM (ozFTd)
Posted by: logprof at October 16, 2012 03:37 PM (jKE+Z)
Posted by: Justamom in Achin' Akin's district at October 16, 2012 03:37 PM (Sptt8)
Posted by: rc at October 16, 2012 03:37 PM (Upa/h)
Posted by: Gerg at October 16, 2012 03:37 PM (aHR5E)
It's going to come down to ground game, and Reince says we have a great one. He was over the weekend and gave a talk to the local Republican Party here.
I shook hands with Reince this past Saturday in Nashua, NH.
Posted by: fluffy at October 16, 2012 03:38 PM (O6q63)
Posted by: chemjeff @ fapplebee's at October 16, 2012 03:38 PM (cnS/d)
Posted by: Craig Poe at October 16, 2012 03:38 PM (BVkEs)
Greg's tears are sweet, but his ass is getting mighty loose.
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 16, 2012 03:38 PM (wR+pz)
Posted by: soothsayer already said it at October 16, 2012 03:39 PM (xTbtA)
Posted by: Sports-Politics Non-sequitir at October 16, 2012 03:39 PM (jKE+Z)
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at October 16, 2012 03:39 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: Jmel at October 16, 2012 03:39 PM (c+D8V)
Posted by: midaz at October 16, 2012 03:40 PM (LBNEj)
As noted above and I agree, they've jacked with the polls so much to keep this thing interesting, Texas ends up 'likely'.
Don't want to get too cocky but this election should be a slam dunk.
Posted by: SouthTexas at October 16, 2012 03:40 PM (uhFbA)
Posted by: Mr. Dave in SPI at October 16, 2012 03:40 PM (S6qGD)
Posted by: Methos at October 16, 2012 03:40 PM (6LvlL)
Posted by: fluffy at October 16, 2012 07:38 PM (O6q63)
-------
He's kind of a dweeb, isn't he? 
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at October 16, 2012 03:40 PM (P6QsQ)
So which plaid goes with which party? Black Watch? Camerons?
Give him some help, here.
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 16, 2012 03:40 PM (4+LTj)
Posted by: Al at October 16, 2012 03:41 PM (aOAEM)
Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 16, 2012 03:41 PM (aHR5E)
---
Just as long as A-Rod gets lucky with a fan, it doesn't really matter.
Posted by: Craig Poe at October 16, 2012 03:41 PM (BVkEs)
In a stunning rebuke to the Romney mandate, Hawaii has held for Obama, preventing a 50 state sweep. Hahaha, suck on that, wingnuts.
I just can't see how Romney can impose his agenda on the American people after this clear rejection of his policies.
Will someone bring me a goddamn hanky?!?
Posted by: Chris Matthews at October 16, 2012 03:42 PM (ccXZP)
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at October 16, 2012 03:42 PM (eHIJJ)
Not at all. He is a short little fucker, but really a good guy. Positive, polite and someone all the morons would enjoy.
I spent an hour with him at a fund raiser. He is ON FIRE!
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 16, 2012 03:42 PM (wR+pz)
Posted by: chemjeff @ fapplebee's at October 16, 2012 03:43 PM (cnS/d)
Atlanta carries the weight of nearly half the counties in GA. Augusta is similar. You have LOTS of votes to make up to override Atlanta.
Look at Illinois. Chicago turns the entire state blue, even tho most downstate are red (minus outside St Louie).
Same with the Carolinas- outlying areas may be red as Santa, but the Greenvilles of this world turn it purple, at best...
Posted by: Mr Wolf, Esq at October 16, 2012 03:44 PM (UIAT6)
Posted by: lowandslow at October 16, 2012 03:44 PM (GZitp)
Posted by: phoenixgirl, team dagny, ROMNEY/RYAN 2012 at October 16, 2012 03:44 PM (Ho2rs)
Fucking California. It's all I see when I look at that map. We are so financially ruined yet we will continue on the same course that got us here. Nobody even considers switching parties because they cannot give up suckling on the government teat, or they worry about lady parts and boys marrying boys.
Posted by: California Red at October 16, 2012 03:44 PM (Ho3p+)
Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 16, 2012 07:41 PM (aHR5E)
----------
He lost a local election in my town here some years back for State Senate. Best thing that ever happened to the Republican Party. If he had won that , he might have got stuck down at the local level and never gone on to become Master Wizard.
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at October 16, 2012 03:45 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: logprof at October 16, 2012 03:45 PM (jKE+Z)
Wow! I have never been called.
I'm starting to take this personal.....
Posted by: Tami at October 16, 2012 03:45 PM (X6akg)
Posted by: Golan Globus at October 16, 2012 03:45 PM (/1U3u)
Now it sucks that two of them are CA and NY. But still. Only 8? Wow.
Posted by: chemjeff @ fapplebee's at October 16, 2012 03:46 PM (cnS/d)
Posted by: phoenixgirl, team dagny, ROMNEY/RYAN 2012 at October 16, 2012 07:44 PM (Ho2rs)
---
Alrighty then......
Posted by: Craig Poe at October 16, 2012 03:46 PM (BVkEs)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 16, 2012 03:46 PM (TMB3S)
Posted by: mugiwara at October 16, 2012 03:46 PM (XT2y5)
I spent an hour with him at a fund raiser. He is ON FIRE!
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 16, 2012 07:42 PM (wR+pz)
-----
I meant that in the most affectionate way possible. I have nothing but love for my home-town hero.
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at October 16, 2012 03:46 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: whiskey tango at October 16, 2012 03:47 PM (JvP2I)
Posted by: Dante at October 16, 2012 03:47 PM (NWLVJ)
Posted by: Justamom in Achin' Akin's district at October 16, 2012 03:47 PM (Sptt8)
I'm with ya, bra'. One of the best things I did this year was move a bit more rural, and it's nice to have conservative neighbors.
If I were Dictator, one of the things I would do is get people out of the cities. Living there warps your mind.
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 16, 2012 03:48 PM (4+LTj)
Looks like that minivan recently came from Texas.
Posted by: chemjeff @ fapplebee's at October 16, 2012 03:48 PM (cnS/d)
Posted by: LizLem at October 16, 2012 03:49 PM (8wqqE)
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 16, 2012 03:49 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 16, 2012 07:48 PM (4+LTj)
-----------
That's a big reason why the Dems want to herd us all into the cities. That's where they exert their power.
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at October 16, 2012 03:49 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: Enneadeka at October 16, 2012 03:49 PM (pcb5S)
Posted by: chemjeff @ fapplebee's at October 16, 2012 03:49 PM (cnS/d)
when did RCP move NC into Romney's column?
I just looked over there and its still showing as a tossup.
Posted by: Marybeth at October 16, 2012 03:50 PM (fkaOH)
90 yeah, i would imagine texas isn't 'likely' or 'leans'. more like 'carved in cold ass stone, muthaf*cka'. but that's prolly hard to fit on the map. god bless texas.
We have a winner!!!
Posted by: SouthTexas at October 16, 2012 03:50 PM (uhFbA)
Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 16, 2012 03:50 PM (aHR5E)
Posted by: John Taylor, bassist Duran Duran at October 16, 2012 03:51 PM (i0vBR)
Living five feet from your neighbor makes things irritating that a little bit of space fixes. When I was in the city, it mattered that two of my neighbors had boats, because they blocked the sun to my pathetic section of lawn.
I hated it so much that (in a moment of weakness) I might give the city the power to move them (against my better judgement).
Now? I got a half acre, and my neighbors park can their RVs in back, so I don't care.
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 16, 2012 03:52 PM (4+LTj)
It was posted this afternoon. I looked too. NC up by 4.7% more than others put in the red. I suspect they don't want to show Barry losing so they are holding back.
It is over here, NC is so fucking red that the Wolfpack is recruiting on the election.
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 16, 2012 03:52 PM (wR+pz)
Posted by: STAT POLICE at October 16, 2012 03:53 PM (kzejo)
Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 16, 2012 03:53 PM (zLp5I)
Posted by: maineconservative at October 16, 2012 03:54 PM (NqIDK)
Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 16, 2012 03:55 PM (9Taqp)
Living five feet from your neighbor makes things irritating that a little bit of space fixes. When I was in the city, it mattered that two of my neighbors had boats, because they blocked the sun to my pathetic section of lawn.
I hated it so much that (in a moment of weakness) I might give the city the power to move them (against my better judgement).
Now? I got a half acre, and my neighbors park can their RVs in back, so I don't care.
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 16, 2012 07:52 PM (4+LTj)
My neighbors sit in their house and let their fucking dogs bark.. how does it not drive them insane
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 16, 2012 03:55 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: Truck Monkey at October 16, 2012 03:55 PM (jucos)
YES. If my neighbors don't strangle their dog, I will do it for them
These are the same neighbors who, whenever I see them, always apologize for the barking dog - well if you're so damn sorry, why don't you actually fucking DO something about it???
and of course they are the same neighbors who have the Claire McFuckskill sign in their front yard
Posted by: chemjeff @ fapplebee's at October 16, 2012 03:56 PM (cnS/d)
Posted by: Truck Monkey at October 16, 2012 03:57 PM (jucos)
No. Barry can not recover, only lose more voters. Whatever the MSM says, it will not matter. It has been written.
Now, if Mitt strips down to his temple underwear and pulls out some seer stones we could have a problem, but that is not going to happen.
This deal is done.
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 16, 2012 03:58 PM (wR+pz)
Posted by: Drunk in East Mesa at October 16, 2012 07:57 PM (hiWet)
You are late, hope you have a handle of Mt Gay. I might run out and need to call you.
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 16, 2012 03:59 PM (wR+pz)
NC up by 4.7% more than others put in the red. I suspect they don't want to show Barry losing so they are holding back.
So, so true. RCP has been annoying. Any poll with a 1-point move for the SCOAMF and they shove it over to him.
On the other hand, a double-digit lead may not pry a state loose for Romney.
Posted by: Marybeth at October 16, 2012 04:00 PM (fkaOH)
We need a "city strategy". It has to be something that starts in the redest states (cough-TEXAS-cough) where the -state- level peeps make an environment conducive to making -red- cities.
NRA programs and training classes/contests where inner city females end up with handguns. Charter schools backed up the wazzu to the point kids are competitive with the top-flight private schools - with a solid grounding in logic, economics and classical works. (You don't -need- to have the science education throwdown over evolution. The ignorance on the -other- subjects is even more problematic.) High school classes over "firearm safety and practice".
Anything that -works- can spread to not-quite-so-red states.
Posted by: Al at October 16, 2012 04:00 PM (aOAEM)
Posted by: DC in Towson at October 16, 2012 04:00 PM (CJwi5)
My suggestion? Anti freeze and hamburger meat.
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 16, 2012 04:01 PM (wR+pz)
The Democrats in Minnesota aren't as large of a majority as people think, most major elections are a toss up leaning Dem. Yet they always seem to tip a little more Dem on Presidential elections, not by much but just enough.
Posted by: lowandslow at October 16, 2012 04:01 PM (GZitp)
Posted by: Rich at October 16, 2012 04:04 PM (pnHKr)
Posted by: Rich at October 16, 2012 04:07 PM (pnHKr)
Posted by: Jean at October 16, 2012 04:08 PM (u5ozF)
But what I don't understand is, how could Minnesota be barely "leaning Dem" in BOTH of the maps?"
Like every other state, the Democrat strongholds are in the big cities. In our case, Minneapolis, St Paul, and Duluth.
We are strong Republican out state and the home of Michelle Bachmann, but in 2010, every state wide office went Democrat. Even that miserable failure of a senator, Mark Dayton was elected as governor. Both our senators are Dems, including Stuart Smalley.
Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 16, 2012 04:10 PM (zLp5I)
Posted by: Keith Arnold at October 16, 2012 04:12 PM (Jdtsu)
But I did see a Romney sticker this morning.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 16, 2012 04:13 PM (dX4hn)
Posted by: Mr. Dave in SPI at October 16, 2012 04:21 PM (S6qGD)
Posted by: Assassin6 at October 16, 2012 04:23 PM (FfukH)
If I see Joe Soptic and his dead wife in the audience....i am going to lose it.
Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 16, 2012 04:25 PM (ovpNn)
Uh....how can California still have 55 electoral votes?
People have been moving away from CA in droves.
I've seen lots of CA plates here in OK, in recent years...often with all their stuff piled on top of them, and pulling u-haul trailers.
Texas has gotten lots of CA transplants too.
I still think that the Barky administration fooled around with the Census numbers, in Blue States.
They probably miscounted how many people have left those states.
Posted by: wheatie at October 16, 2012 04:34 PM (l5RhJ)
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Posted by: garrett at October 16, 2012 03:21 PM (aA9lR)