Ace of Spades HQ

June 24, 2012

Tropical Storm Debby (tmi3rd)
— Open Blogger

Good evening, Morons and Moronettes. I'm tmi3rd, and tonight, we take a moment to try to make some sense of the very uncooperative Tropical Storm Debby. Thanks to Maetenloch for letting me jump in so soon after posting the ONT. Thanks, bro.

As of 7 PM CDT, Tropical Storm Debby was nearly stationary about 115 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, FL, or 195 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Top sustained winds are 60 miles per hour, and the minimum central pressure was 990 millibars, or 29.23 inches. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border east to the Suwanee River in Florida. A Tornado Watch is in effect over the majority of the west coast of the Florida peninsula

Discussion below the fold...

Image via www.wunderground.com, http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201204_5day.html

Because Debby is so large and so poorly-defined, it's been a real pain to forecast with any confidence where the storm will go. Nonetheless, because it's comparatively close to land, its main effects will be flooding rains in the the Florida Panhandle and west-central Florida. Also, seas are 4-6 feet in Apalachee Bay and Waccassa Bay, and as high as 1-3 feet all the way over to the Louisiana coast. This means that crews are pulled off of oil rigs, so you may see an increase in gas prices for a few days.

So what's so messy about the forecast of this storm? Well, there are a few major elements in play in terms of where it's going to go and how fast the center of circulation will get there. First of all, there's a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Central Plains, and a surface-level high is building and pushing south. One of the models shows a low pressure trough building over the East Coast, which would pull the storm north and east. However, that would be an awfully quick development, so the National Hurricane Center doesn't appear to be biting on that solution at the moment.

A somewhat more plausible solution has the surface high working its way south and blocking motion of the storm, allowing it to meander around until the high pressure over the Central Plains begins to weaken and push off to the east. If that happens, the storm may take a slight northwestward jog. However, by then, one could reasonably expect that it'll be on land, and just be a big rainmaker.

So what?

Well, first of all, the good news is that you probably won't see Debby strengthen into a hurricane. It'd need a lot more room to spin up and get organized, and tropical storms don't like interacting with land. The bad part of that is that places from Tampa to Apalachicola may be looking at anywhere from ten to fifteen inches of rain over the next several days while the storm makes up its mind where to go.

Nobody in the forecasting business is terribly confident in where this storm will wind up. For the moment, if you're anywhere from Pensacola to Tampa, be ready for lots of rain and coastal flooding. If you're on the west coast of Florida, some of those bands of thunderstorms could spin up a small tornado or two. I'm seeing reports of tornadoes all the way down towards Miami, so just keep an eye out.

Once Debby is inland, if you're in eastern Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas, be ready for some heavy rain towards the end of this week. More people die from inland flooding than any other element of tropical storms.

I'd love to give you more specifics of inland flooding, but I'm definitely no hydrologist (Mrs. tmi3rd is a meteorologist), so I'm going to stick to what I know.

I'll be floating around until about 11 PM CDT, and you can always find me on Twitter at my handle if you've got any questions or anything I can help you with. In the meantime, stay safe- we've got a heat wave going on in the Midwest, and tropical weather in the Southeast... must be summer!

-tmi3rd

Posted by: Open Blogger at 06:31 PM | Comments (76)
Post contains 687 words, total size 4 kb.

1 I just left the FloraBama area Saturday. Glad I did too. Though we had a condo right on the beach. Being cooped up in a condo with my wife, daughter, her hubby, a 14, 2 and 3month old grandkids watching it rain for days in a row would have been no fun.

Posted by: Ohio Dan at June 24, 2012 06:38 PM (JKNDp)

2 Just talked with my dad on Pensacola Beach. No rain yet but the Gulf is pretty wild. He'll just ride this one out.

Posted by: Whitehall at June 24, 2012 06:43 PM (1+mGd)

3 Yeah, no reason to clear out of Pensacola Beach unless it jogs west abruptly. The bad stuff is just close enough that the water could come up. Nonetheless, this is the kind of storm that barely makes it worth taking a day off from school or work for.

Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 06:45 PM (cxomr)

4 Puff Debby...

Posted by: Home Depot Stock Holders at June 24, 2012 06:45 PM (BVkEs)

5 So, y'all think it's gonna rain a tad? Ol' man Cooter already has his pink trout all shucked, just waitin' for a blast of vinegar to cool things off.

Posted by: Stark Dickflüssig at June 24, 2012 06:46 PM (0XbWx)

6 Heading towards low tide here in Pcola area and the water is at normal high tide level. Don't like Cantore being here bringing the bad mojo.

Posted by: Drewbicle at June 24, 2012 06:47 PM (YqP7s)

7 Will this be Bush's fault?

Posted by: Cu'chulainn at June 24, 2012 06:49 PM (S2usR)

8 Drewbicle, Cantore goes just close enough to bad weather that he can ski or surf nearby. I've worked with the man. Beyond that, in the interest of being gentlemanly, I'll hold my tongue. Oh, and he's like 5'4"-5'5" and drives a big truck.

Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 06:50 PM (cxomr)

9 Dang! "A little more to the left" (and who among us has not heard <that> heartfelt request?) and I could have signed this as:

Posted by: Debby does Dallas at June 24, 2012 06:54 PM (pJbuO)

10 I know this blog breaks new ground/wind all the time, but as anyone ever advocated naming tropical storms and hurricanes by redneck names, such as Tropical Storm Cletus, or Hurricane Brandine?

Just wonderin'...

Posted by: Jim Sonweed at June 24, 2012 06:58 PM (pJbuO)

11 Jim, you may already know this, but for those who don't, look up "Sheila Jackson Lee Hurricane Names" and get back to me.

Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 07:00 PM (cxomr)

12 daughters are at Disney world and said it's raining and windy

Posted by: Ma Bell at June 24, 2012 07:00 PM (uVuwp)

13 Guess I'll gas up the car and buy some extra tomorrow. I put the generator on charge this evening just in case. Don't worry Drew, we can rehash the thing at the Alehouse.

Posted by: Panhandler at June 24, 2012 07:00 PM (rZ5RE)

14 Yeah, judging from the tornado reports, the touchy stuff is mainly in Tampa, Orlando, and points south... the heavy rain seems to be Orlando and points north.

Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 07:02 PM (cxomr)

15 It shouldn't need to be said but please stay out of the water. Swimmer missing off Orange Beach. What a waste.

Posted by: Drewbicle at June 24, 2012 07:07 PM (YqP7s)

16 Jim, you may already know this, but for those who don't, look up "Sheila Jackass Lee Hurricane Names" and get back to me. Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 11:00 PM (cxomr) FIFY

Posted by: Ma Bell at June 24, 2012 07:07 PM (uVuwp)

17 Thanks, Ma Bell! Good point.

Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 07:09 PM (cxomr)

18 CAN SOMEONE PLEASE SEND THIS BITCH TO TEXAS?

Posted by: Francis E. Dec at June 24, 2012 07:12 PM (9Sf6T)

19 Thanks for the Storm Report for Morons, TMI. Much better than the dreck at the Weather Channel, etc.

Posted by: Beth at June 24, 2012 07:12 PM (kBxk7)

20 Stormy weather, a perfect time to catch up on Fred and Ginger movies. Call in sick.

Posted by: And Irresolute at June 24, 2012 07:13 PM (Q492A)

21 Ditto Francis, please send the bitch to Texas and NOT to Alabama - we've had enough damn rain to last us for the rest of the summer, thanks!

Posted by: Beth at June 24, 2012 07:13 PM (kBxk7)

22 Thanks, Beth! Happy to oblige. And no grim nods (Cantore) or endless insurance commercials (check it out, you'll see what I mean).

Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 07:14 PM (cxomr)

23 A metric buttload of rain here in the Tampa Bay area. Reports of some tornadoes and waterspouts. Not too much wind, though it did get gusty on occasion. Lots of friends posting pictures of flooded roads and yards, but nothing that looks too serious. On the other hand, the Rays swept the Phillies in today's double header! Go Rays!

Posted by: DoorsOff at June 24, 2012 07:14 PM (hn+oH)

24 Also, talking about uncooperative storms, the divergence of the spaghetti models/storm path from yesterday to today is insane!

Posted by: DoorsOff at June 24, 2012 07:16 PM (hn+oH)

25 "Mere" tropical storms can be very serious. I remember Hurricane Irene last year. It was a big newsmaker since it was forecast to hit near New York City. It ended up making landfall as a tropical storm, yet it caused horrific flooding and damage in Vermont. It was probably one of the worst storms in that state's history.

Posted by: rickl at June 24, 2012 07:19 PM (sdi6R)

26 Yeah, the models were a mess- much of what the models need is a single point that they can definitively call the center of circulation. There really isn't one with this system, and the computers totally freak out when they're faced with that.

Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 07:19 PM (cxomr)

27 will this storm affect the Latino vote? what about the swedish voters will it affect them? And we got a big effen Vodka border with the Canucks how come we do not have a gun running, drug smuggling , immigrant problem with them? Eh? We gotta bigger border with the Canucks so to be fair we should have a bigger problem . And why has not mittens vetted a canuck for VP..

Posted by: Clemenza at June 24, 2012 07:25 PM (qA9lG)

Good luck to ya'll down there. Nothing worse than a major storm after it gets dark, and you may very well lose power.

Get back to us, when you are able.

Posted by: HH at June 24, 2012 07:30 PM (v+ExF)

29 19 CAN SOMEONE PLEASE SEND THIS BITCH TO TEXAS? Posted by: Francis E. Dec at June 24, 2012 11:12 PM (9Sf6T) And then on to Colorado? Thanks!

Posted by: Alice H at June 24, 2012 07:30 PM (qJHYy)

30 Darn I wish we could suck off some of the rain to Colorado and western KS.

Posted by: Palerider at June 24, 2012 07:31 PM (FYUWS)

31 As long as this shit stays outta my way Wednesday, I'm good. Then it can pound the Obamas in the ass.

Posted by: Clete Orris at June 24, 2012 07:34 PM (JbIx8)

32 HH, we have the power. There are more generators per square mile on the gulf coast than anywhere on the planet. Ivan, Dennis, etc.. taught us well.

Posted by: Drewbicle at June 24, 2012 07:34 PM (YqP7s)

33 Hell, any part of KS, at this point... we are bone-friggin'-dry at this point.

Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 07:34 PM (cxomr)

Posted by: Drewbicle at June 24, 2012 11:34 PM (YqP7s)

Good to know!

Posted by: HH at June 24, 2012 07:36 PM (v+ExF)

35 Hey, this bitch is entering the US illegally. Maybe that buttfucker, Holder, can round her up, and deport her ass to Mexico, Fast and Furious-style. He's got the supply train in place...

Posted by: Clete Orris at June 24, 2012 07:37 PM (JbIx8)

Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 11:34 PM (cxomr)

Heh. Don't be throwing no burning cigs at this point...

Posted by: HH at June 24, 2012 07:38 PM (v+ExF)

37 Dry as a bone and dead calm here on the MS Gulf coast. The barrier islands have been closed as a safety precaution.

Floridians -- flee, flee your homes and come stay with us. We need the business. ;P

Posted by: GnuBreed at June 24, 2012 07:41 PM (ccXZP)

38 Ain't that the truth, HH. Backyard looks like kindling at this point. Today's 101 in the driveway didn't help. Tmi4th looks like a lobster on his arms as a result of playing outside today.

Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 07:42 PM (cxomr)

39 GnuBreed, probably a good time to point out that Sunday-Thursday at most casinos with poker rooms have the poker rate... $69 a night for a suite at places like Horseshoe and Hard Rock.

Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 07:43 PM (cxomr)

40 Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 11:42 PM (cxomr) are you in KS. We were stationed at Ft. Riley from 1980-85. I never got sunburned, they called it windburn, cause with the dry wind constantly blowing you could never really feel the burn coming on

Posted by: Ma Bell at June 24, 2012 07:48 PM (uVuwp)

41 Ma Bell, we're in the greater KC area on the KS side. Although the wind certainly rips through here at times, today was just a big ol' pressure cooker. 101 degrees and subsiding, humid air. Felt almost like home in New Orleans today.

Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 07:50 PM (cxomr)

Posted by: Ma Bell at June 24, 2012 11:48 PM (uVuwp)

As am I. Yes, very hot, but not particularly windy.

Posted by: HH at June 24, 2012 07:53 PM (v+ExF)

43 Ugh. That's almost directly into my stomping grounds here in Central AL. Back half of the week will be annoying if this stays true. Still, I've been through worse (Opal and 'Crazy' Ivan come immediately to mind)...

Posted by: Brother Cavil, New Caprica Sanitation Department at June 24, 2012 07:55 PM (x8wJs)

44 Okay, guys, I have to get to bed... if anyone needs to get a hold of me, tweet me at my handle. Stay safe, and don't go swimming in the Gulf for about a week.

Posted by: tmi3rd at June 24, 2012 08:02 PM (cxomr)

45 This side of the Gulf was little higher today, as was all the area bays, and it looks like that's all we're going to get.

Need the rain.

Posted by: SouthTexas at June 24, 2012 08:05 PM (PsBdQ)

46 Debbie Does Pensacola.

Posted by: Cicero at June 24, 2012 08:05 PM (7ppar)

47 My brother had a reading of 113 in N. Central Kansas today, second day in a row for being the hottest in the nation.....some breezes and rain would be welcome.

Posted by: Jinx the Cat at June 24, 2012 08:09 PM (6idrQ)

48 Here in Jax we've been seeing the bands since yesterday and will probably see rain for the next five days or so.

No beach this week.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at June 24, 2012 08:27 PM (piMMO)

49 Debbie we need your rain. Bring it!

Posted by: Lance in ATL at June 24, 2012 08:29 PM (ybTxk)

50 Because Debby is so large and so poorly-defined, it's been a real pain to forecast with any confidence where the storm will go. Nonetheless, because it's comparatively close to land

And.

Well, first of all, the good news is that you probably won't see Debby strengthen into a hurricane. It'd need a lot more room to spin up and get organized,

I believe the technical term for this situation is NOOOOOOSHIIITTT SHERLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at June 24, 2012 08:44 PM (famk3)

51 Just got to FL panhandle yesterday for week-long, much anticipated vacation on sugar white sand and crystal water. Stuck in condo with in laws, kids and husband. Sucks for us all. Tomorrow I'll have 3 hurricanes instead of 1.

Posted by: Vacay girl at June 24, 2012 08:46 PM (3SQBC)

52 22 Ditto Francis, please send the bitch to Texas and NOT to Alabama - we've had enough damn rain to last us for the rest of the summer, thanks!

The brown crunchy remnants of my lawn disagree

You can send it up to Birmingham...

Posted by: Lone Marauder, pre-denounced for your convenience SMOD 2012 at June 24, 2012 09:05 PM (eHBHk)

53 44 Ugh. That's almost directly into my stomping grounds here in Central AL. Back half of the week will be annoying if this stays true. Still, I've been through worse (Opal and 'Crazy' Ivan come immediately to mind)...

Hey Cavil... another central AL moron!!

Posted by: Lone Marauder, pre-denounced for your convenience SMOD 2012 at June 24, 2012 09:07 PM (eHBHk)

54 If you look at all the projections, it's entirely possible that people who want rain might get it. It's bizarro! I've lived through three hurricanes here on the panhandle and the worst damage was done by drop down tornadoes and flooding from TS Georges.

Posted by: rabidfox at June 24, 2012 09:12 PM (ig+fT)

55 OK, just so we're clear... you WEREN'T talking about Debbie Wasserman Schultz? Because the first thing I think of when I hear about a poorly defined disaster coming out of Florida is her.

Posted by: skinnydipinacid at June 24, 2012 09:22 PM (F7XAG)

56 What? Tropical storm? Been kind of distracted by the gigantic fire incinerating the mountains where I like to hang out. It's a disturbing thing. The thing is, the High Park fire was parked by a lightning strike on a tree, which smoldered for three days. What with all the beetle killed trees, this really looks like mother nature cleaning up. Still, it is unnerving, and there is no end in sight. Just learned that the entire city of Manitou Springs was evacuated because of a new fire. Ten major fires in CO right now.

Posted by: Pug Mahon at June 24, 2012 09:27 PM (cujSl)

57 "parked"=sparked.

Posted by: Pug Mahon at June 24, 2012 09:28 PM (cujSl)

58 Why are all the hurricane names just normal look it up in the telephone book white / ish names. There's no "Hurricane Trevon" There's no "Hurricane Tyrone" There's no "Hurricane Jamal" There's no "Hurricane DeShaun" There's no "Hurricane Raven" There's no "Hurricane Kiara" There's no "Hurricane Aliya" There be's no "Hurricane Deja" Always it be's the white folk paying these bills. There's no "Hurricane George Zimmerman"

Posted by: marc in calgary at June 24, 2012 09:46 PM (1Dy0H)

59 #12 There be's no "Hurricane Sheila Jackson Lee" All her damage y Debbie Wasserman Shultz be's done.

Posted by: marc in calgary at June 24, 2012 09:48 PM (1Dy0H)

60 It rained in palm beach from about noon until after midnight. Humidity was ~100%

Posted by: Purple Avenger at June 24, 2012 11:15 PM (c+uu3)

61 So....ten paragraphs just to tell me it's gonna rain? Sheesh

Posted by: My Sharia Moor at June 25, 2012 01:36 AM (PET8M)

62 Very interesting "Uncommon Knowledge" interview by Peter Robinson with former Obama colleague Richard Epstein from 2009 http://tinyurl.com/8xnnouz

Hmmmm....

"The fundamental mistake of his entire world view is that he treats contracts as devices for exploitation and not as devices for mutual gain, and he assumes that redistribution can take place without any negative impact upon production.

If you live in that kind of a fairy land, which I think he does, every one of his major social and economic initiatives are going to misfire. And, if they succeed, God forbid, in getting through, they are going to intensify the downturn that we have already experienced. He is the wrong guy for the job based on his intellectual format. The question is whether you can force him back."

Posted by: Albie Damned at June 25, 2012 02:00 AM (Yhu4q)

63 Posted by: skinnydipinacid at June 25, 2012 01:22 AM (F7XAG)

OK...that was good

Posted by: Albie Damned at June 25, 2012 02:07 AM (Yhu4q)

64 Coastal Georgia WX report & some maudlin ramblings at my nick. Whatever did happen to Bambi Woods? ( Yes, I'm old enough to remember the movie... )

Posted by: backhoe at June 25, 2012 02:13 AM (ULH4o)

65 Another fun quote from Obama colleague at U of C Richard Epstein

"I like Obama but I reject the suggestion that he is an intellectual. He is an activist merely mimicking the mannerisms of an intellectual."

Posted by: Albie Damned at June 25, 2012 02:13 AM (Yhu4q)

66 There's a 100% probability I'm gonna rain on somebody's parade.

Posted by: SCOTUS at June 25, 2012 02:19 AM (7+pP9)

67 Can you imagine the damage BarryO could do if had a strong economy to mask his actions?

Posted by: Jean at June 25, 2012 02:38 AM (RURIy)

68 Central Florida here. Done nothing but pour for the past three days. And the forecast has the same for the next several days so I'm guessing this stupid storm is going to drown out my plants. I'll be venturing out in this mess to go to VBS oth the kiddies in a bit.

Posted by: Mandy P., lurker for dagny at June 25, 2012 02:41 AM (qFpRI)

69 I am flying to JAX this morning.
Booked a room on the East Coast.
Seems pointless now.

Posted by: sTevo at June 25, 2012 02:48 AM (ikBXS)

70 I am flying to JAX this morning.
Booked a room on the East Coast.
Seems pointless now.

****

It's rained for two days here. Where are you staying? What part of town?

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at June 25, 2012 05:07 AM (piMMO)

71 TLH here. Nice rain band just hit, probably still coming down firmly. Forecasts are for rain the next 5 days. Did I wake up in Seattle?

Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at June 25, 2012 05:09 AM (1hM1d)

72 So today is my sister's birthday. She lives in Panama City. And her name is Debbie. God does have a sense of humor, I guess.

Posted by: the_hawk at June 25, 2012 05:46 AM (hcCiJ)

73 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at June 25, 2012 07:08 AM (Xb3hu)

74 Said East, meant West. Jacksonville Beach.

Posted by: sTevo at June 25, 2012 10:04 AM (hiMsy)

75 Saw the headline and thought it was about FL Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz and her gaffe-prone leadership since Obama picked her to head the DNC.......

Posted by: AZ Indep at June 25, 2012 10:30 AM (SqlKD)

Chances of rain 50%. Chances of no rain 50%. So far, I've never been wrong.

Posted by: burt at June 25, 2012 10:33 AM (OzqQM)

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