August 27, 2012
— Open Blogger This post has been promoted by Drew M. in light of the impending landfall of Tropical Storm Isaac.
Good morning from the AoSHQ weather desk. We'll be updating these with time stamps because information will be updated every three hours at the NHC and NWS. The next one is due at 2 EDT. The next AoSHQ advisory on this will happen as the High Command decides it's necessary.
Important stuff: Tropical Storm Isaac is anticipated to make landfall (the center of circulation will hit land) sometime on Tuesday, probably somewhere between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Morgan City, LA. Maximum sustained winds are currently 65 mph, and its movement is northwest at 13 mph.
Two things that jump out about this: one, the storm didn't strengthen much overnight, which was something of a surprise. As of the morning advisory, the maximum sustained winds were 55 mph, and it's strengthened some today.
If it stays on its current course, it'll hit Barataria Bay, which is about ten or fifteen miles due south of the house I grew up in. Of course, when it hits land, it'll wobble a bit, so we'll see where it actually goes ashore.
The current thinking in terms of intensity is that it will top out at around 90 mph maximum sustained winds, which makes it a solid Category 1 hurricane. Storm surge effects will be highest on the northeast quadrant of the storm, which means if you're anywhere from Terrebonne Parish, LA east to the AL/FL border, you're looking at 6-12 feet higher water than normal. South central Louisiana is looking at 3-6 feet, as is the Florida panhandle.
Rainfall estimates, as are customary with any landfalling hurricane, are between 12-15 inches anywhere along the eastern side of the storm. It may not be that much, but be prepared for that possibility. Tornadoes are also a possibility anywhere along the northern Gulf Coast (usually EF-0 in intensity).
This kind of storm is almost an annual occurrence along the northern Gulf Coast, so take your usual precautions. If you're on the beach, you do need to finish your preparations swiftly. If you're heading inland, go now, please.
As ever, the greatest loss of life with any hurricane is usually inland flooding- just stay away from high water and don't do anything dumb.
Watches and warnings:
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* east of Morgan City Louisiana to Destin Florida...including metropolitan New Orleans...Lake Pontchartrain...and Lake Maurepas
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Morgan City Louisiana
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* east of Destin Florida to the Aucilla river
* Intracoastal City to Morgan City Louisiana
a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* east of Sabine Pass to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
If you need me, find me on Twitter at my handle. What we're hoping for, by the way, is that Isaac will make its way up into Oklahoma and Kansas and beat up on our drought.
Thanks for reading! I leave you with the current satellite shot of Isaac...
-tmi3rd
Posted by: Open Blogger at
08:41 AM
| Comments (118)
Post contains 535 words, total size 3 kb.
http://livewire.wisn.com/Event/Paul_Ryan_sendoff_rally_in_Janesville
Posted by: mama winger in Paul Ryan's district at August 27, 2012 08:43 AM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 27, 2012 08:44 AM (1Jaio)
Posted by: Ray Nagin at August 27, 2012 08:46 AM (CfGGV)
Bush/Katrina Bush/Katrina Bush/Katrina...
Posted by: the pink cracker formerly known as the hobbit Donna at August 27, 2012 08:47 AM (W2Z3C)
My friends. I implore you. We must suspend the convention and return to DC to address the Hurricane Crisis.
Posted by: Juan McCain at August 27, 2012 08:47 AM (mKlwW)
Posted by: Minnfidel at August 27, 2012 08:49 AM (bp/sa)
Posted by: t-bird at August 27, 2012 08:50 AM (FcR7P)
Posted by: The guy calling everything a SCOMX at August 27, 2012 08:50 AM (I7O5y)
Posted by: Knightbrigade at August 27, 2012 08:50 AM (Q76p7)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 27, 2012 08:51 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 27, 2012 08:51 AM (3ZjAP)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 27, 2012 08:51 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: rickb223 at August 27, 2012 08:52 AM (T3k8y)
FIFY
Posted by: BCochran1981 at August 27, 2012 08:52 AM (da5Wo)
Posted by: mama winger in Paul Ryan's district at August 27, 2012 08:52 AM (P6QsQ)
Wasted breath.
Indeed. Anyone who would listen already knows, and anyone who doesn't already know is too dumb to listen.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 27, 2012 08:52 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Y-not at August 27, 2012 08:52 AM (5H6zj)
Posted by: avi at August 27, 2012 08:53 AM (51xVX)
Hold my beer and y'all watch this...
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ needs a beer at August 27, 2012 08:53 AM (/kI1Q)
Posted by: t-bird at August 27, 2012 12:50 PM (FcR7P)
We've got enough trouble here. Send him back to Hawaii
Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 27, 2012 08:54 AM (1Jaio)
"Just stay away from high water and don't do anything dumb"
You can't fix stupid. Not even with duct tape.
Posted by: CSMBigBird at August 27, 2012 08:54 AM (jsWA8)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 27, 2012 08:54 AM (8y9MW)
Army Corp of Engineers: Quck, we need Dykes!
Pvt Smartass: Well.... we could send to San Francisco...
Army Corpse of Engineers: Theres no time!
Pvt Smartass: Well... I hear Chris Mathews is in the area...
Posted by: Romeo13 at August 27, 2012 08:54 AM (lZBBB)
I blame the History Channel. This is all a bunch of bullshit to get some newsreel footage for next seasons Swamp People.
Posted by: garrett at August 27, 2012 08:55 AM (mKlwW)
Watch this! Remember the dumb idiots that stayed down in an AL hotel partying when a hurricane came in about 10 years ago? I think 40 were killed.
Posted by: Bubba at August 27, 2012 08:55 AM (3ZjAP)
Bush/Katrina Bush/Katrina Bush/Katrina...
Posted by: the pink cracker formerly known as the hobbit Donna at August 27, 2012 12:47 PM (W2Z3C) .....................
I'm not sure if you meant it as snark You've picked up at their desperate attempt. You're actually right on. This is how desperate they are. Chuck Todd on NBC was trying to tie Katrina and Bush to Romney. These fucks are desperate.
Posted by: Minnfidel at August 27, 2012 08:55 AM (bp/sa)
Do all hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere rotate counter-clockwise, like water does going down a drain?
Posted by: jwest at August 27, 2012 08:56 AM (ZDsRL)
My wife posed this question last night: What do you think would happen to a politician who declared his city to be a "Vanilla City"?
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at August 27, 2012 08:57 AM (xtvQl)
33 Do all hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere rotate counter-clockwise, like water does going down a drain?
Yes
Posted by: CSMBigBird at August 27, 2012 08:57 AM (jsWA8)
Posted by: Minnfidel at August 27, 2012 12:55 PM (bp/sa)
Well.... we all know that Mormons think of themselves as a Lost Tribe of Israel....
And the Zionists do have that Secret Weather Control Laser....
Posted by: Lefty Braindead at August 27, 2012 08:57 AM (lZBBB)
Now that's just a dirty lie. You can fix anything with duct tape.
Posted by: BCochran1981 at August 27, 2012 08:58 AM (da5Wo)
Posted by: t-bird at August 27, 2012 08:58 AM (FcR7P)
Posted by: Chris Christie's Keynote Address to the RNC at August 27, 2012 08:58 AM (i0vBR)
Be thankful Isaac is as scatterbrained on its organization as an OWS zombie. Its not a well organized storm like Katrina or a compact fast moving killer like Camille. Though with it supposedly moving at 7kts at landfall it can do a Katrina and drown your stupid self.
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at August 27, 2012 08:59 AM (Z2fb7)
Posted by: @PurpAv at August 27, 2012 08:59 AM (COZLs)
Posted by: tocquevillian at August 27, 2012 09:00 AM (iuY0Y)
And the Zionists do have that Secret Weather Control Laser....
Posted by: Lefty Braindead at August 27, 2012 12:57 PM (lZBBB)
Don't forget us!!
Posted by: Bilderberg Group at August 27, 2012 09:00 AM (3ZjAP)
Posted by: Harry Randall Truman at August 27, 2012 09:00 AM (msPO3)
Believe me, if I could have found a job somewhere north and west of here, where things like hurricanes don't happen, I'd have been gone in late '05 if not sooner. All the idiots who, crazily, love this heat-stunned region came rushing back after Katrina, squealing, "It's mah home!" My view: After Vesuvius has exploded and destroyed your home town of Pompeii, it's time to move to Rome.
This storm doesn't look to be anywhere near as bad. My only worry is that the power will go out; and in the heat and humidity at this time of year, that's no small discomfort.
Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius at August 27, 2012 09:00 AM (exvgC)
The MFM quandary: praise Barack for bringing the rain, or blame Bush for putting Louisiana so close to sea level...
Posted by: t-bird at August 27, 2012 12:58 PM (FcR7P)
Yes!
Posted by: MSM and the Left, BIRM at August 27, 2012 09:00 AM (RD7QR)
Now that's just a dirty lie. You can fix anything with duct tape.
Posted by: BCochran1981 at August 27, 2012 12:58 PM (da5Wo)
Not the weapons grade stupidity. Duct tape stops at "Hey Ya'll, watch this"
Posted by: CSMBigBird at August 27, 2012 09:01 AM (jsWA8)
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at August 27, 2012 09:01 AM (VtjlW)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 27, 2012 09:02 AM (i0vBR)
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at August 27, 2012 09:02 AM (Z2fb7)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 27, 2012 09:03 AM (i0vBR)
The Magic Negro works his magic!
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 27, 2012 09:03 AM (3ZjAP)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at August 27, 2012 09:03 AM (Ec6wH)
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at August 27, 2012 09:04 AM (Z2fb7)
Posted by: Michael Mann at August 27, 2012 09:04 AM (FcR7P)
In my area of Minnesota the corn tasseled a month ago any rain now wont help.
Posted by: Buzzsaw at August 27, 2012 09:04 AM (tf9Ne)
"You can fix anything with duct tape."
I believe the full quote from the Book of Manliness is:
You can fix anything with duct-tape and/or violence.
Posted by: reason at August 27, 2012 09:05 AM (W2YA6)
Yes
*
*
And the ones in the Southern Hemisphere turn clockwise. The thing that puzzles me is their tracks. In the NH, hurricanes are born in the tropics and work their way, usually, west and north. What do they do in the SH? Do they travel east and south? Which I guess would mean that the western coasts of Africa and Australia could get slammed, but not the eastern -- and Brazil would be almost certain never to have a hurricane at all?
Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius at August 27, 2012 09:05 AM (exvgC)
I thought of that after I posted. Corn here in the South is smoking tall and I am seeing a lot of new trucks!
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 27, 2012 09:05 AM (3ZjAP)
Posted by: Buras, LA at August 27, 2012 09:06 AM (FcR7P)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 27, 2012 09:06 AM (i0vBR)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at August 27, 2012 09:07 AM (Ec6wH)
Wife and Master Race at our Metairie, LA office right now - this is the second vacation that got fucked because of hurricanes hitting that shithole.
They're just starting the trek back up here and say the weather is still beautiful down there.
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at August 27, 2012 09:07 AM (oZdGp)
Posted by: Barack Obama at August 27, 2012 01:01 PM (mKlwW)
Is that like dropping the foster kids off at the pool? Because it's racist, if it is.
Nope more like this!
http://tinyurl.com/2bfgqcj
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 27, 2012 09:09 AM (3ZjAP)
Duct tape them to a pole and then put the duct tape over their mouth. Voila!
Posted by: BCochran1981 at August 27, 2012 09:09 AM (da5Wo)
And speaking of that hype here is the current headline/link at Fox
Isaac Following Track of Katrina As 3 States Declare Emergencies!
Doom! We're all going to die a grisly drowning death. Roll Shep now!
Posted by: Vic at August 27, 2012 09:10 AM (YdQQY)
I hearby declare this city to be Vanilla City!!
Posted by: BCochran1981 at August 27, 2012 09:10 AM (da5Wo)
Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius at August 27, 2012 01:05 PM (exvgC)
They still go North and West. It's the steering winds.....
Posted by: Cicero Kid at August 27, 2012 09:15 AM (krPCi)
But then again this is the news media who reported it was Neil Young who died at age 82 after walking on the Moon.
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at August 27, 2012 09:16 AM (Z2fb7)
Posted by: mig0 at August 27, 2012 09:16 AM (WQ0ni)
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at August 27, 2012 09:17 AM (VtjlW)
Looks like I get to spend the rest of today doing hurricane prep and the next day or two keeping my youngest from flipping out at the sounds of the wind and thunder.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at August 27, 2012 09:18 AM (e0xKF)
Posted by: Brother Cavil, covering his bases at August 27, 2012 09:18 AM (GBXon)
Posted by: @PurpAv at August 27, 2012 09:20 AM (COZLs)
>>They're just starting the trek back up here and say the weather is still beautiful down there.
It's only 90 up here, so yeh, nice and cool.
>>My only worry is that the power will go out; and in the heat and
humidity at this time of year, that's no small discomfort.
Yeh, we're only supposed to get 35 mile an hour winds, but that might be enough to wipe out the power for a while.
Posted by: Mama AJ at August 27, 2012 09:22 AM (SUKHu)
Posted by: huffingon post civil rights blogger at August 27, 2012 09:24 AM (IcF5j)
Oops, now it's 45 miles per hour.
I'm not buying anything that needs to be refrigerated tomorrow, I guess.
Brandon, do people in the northern part of the state buy out the stores or otherwise go crazy? I'm assuming not...
Posted by: Mama AJ at August 27, 2012 09:24 AM (SUKHu)
*
*
I can believe it, if NOLA residents are made of crawfish.
The inhabitants of this loony bin look at me funny when I tell them I put salsa and chili powder on my eggs. These are the same numb-nutted clowns who are willing, nay eager, to sit outdoors in heat that would stun a water buffalo and get their hands covered in grease and guts, pulling apart insectoids who yield, at best, a fingernail-sized flake of meat. It's like doing an oil change while you're eating.
Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius at August 27, 2012 09:29 AM (exvgC)
Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 27, 2012 09:29 AM (1Jaio)
Posted by: reason at August 27, 2012 09:29 AM (+hPIb)
http://tinyurl.com/8dkrwhk
I wish I could find this one image taken by ATS-III on August 19, 1969. Camille is at the southern tip of Illinois. It still had a clearly defined hurricane/tropical storm shape. Its on page 263 of The Hurricane and Its Impact.
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at August 27, 2012 09:29 AM (Z2fb7)
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at August 27, 2012 09:31 AM (Z2fb7)
Posted by: Nancy Pelosi, AMS-Certified at August 27, 2012 09:31 AM (+hPIb)
>>pulling apart insectoids who yield, at best, a fingernail-sized flake of meat.
I posted a link yesterday to a story about a couple who moved to Bossier after Katrina and have a seafood place. They serve crawfish fried rice, which just makes me giggle for some reason.
Posted by: Mama AJ at August 27, 2012 09:32 AM (SUKHu)
For many years after Camille hit the Gulf Coast, whenever I'd visit, I'd see a small fishing boat about the size of Gilligan's S.S. Minnow that had been hurled inland, to the other side of the beach highway, and left there as a memorial and warning. I have no idea if it survived Katrina. Probably not.
The warning part sure didn't work.
Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius at August 27, 2012 09:33 AM (exvgC)
*
*
Oh, I have no problem with the meat itself. If somebody else goes through all that gross CSI-style autopsy on the crawfish and assembles the meat for me in a pie or other dish, that's fine. I just don't want to be there at the actual postmortem.
Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius at August 27, 2012 09:35 AM (exvgC)
Thanks, Anna.
And my husband is more likely to be at work than at home during this storm.
Should have realized that earlier, but didn't. Darn it.
Posted by: Mama AJ at August 27, 2012 09:36 AM (SUKHu)
Define "northern".
Baton Rouge is in the south-central part of the state, which means we don't get hit with the direct effects of landfall as much as get a shit-ton of rain and wind.
People are buying things up, mainly gas from all the gas stations, because they want to run generators to keep their food from spoiling during the likely power outage. There are a ton of gas stations in and around BR which are bone dry now.
However, the stores here weren't nearly as picked over as the wife's hometown of Natchez, MS, which is over an hour north of BR.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at August 27, 2012 09:37 AM (e0xKF)
Katrina killed off many landmark Camille survivors. The last original McDonald's sign was on Pass Rd near Keesler Gate 7. Katrina got it. Put-put golf course in Biloxi on the beach south of Hwy 90 had a concrete goofy looking T-rex with rotating head that survived Camille. Katrina got it also. Though the service station on the beach in Biloxi where Camille's highest storm surge was recorded survived. Katrina's high water mark was further inland.
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at August 27, 2012 09:38 AM (Z2fb7)
I still say they should have made that barge dropped in the middle of the highway around Gulfport into a Katrina landmark. Route the highway around it.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at August 27, 2012 09:40 AM (e0xKF)
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at August 27, 2012 01:29 PM (Z2fb7)
--
Camille was quite a storm. Took out a tree at my grandparents' place in the midwest. The tree took out the window in the room I was sleeping. My grandmother brushed the broken glass off of me, and moved me to the living room, and I never woke up. I wish I could still sleep like that.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at August 27, 2012 09:40 AM (xtvQl)
Camille washed two barges into the Hwy 90 median from the Port of Gulfport. They had fun getting those out.
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at August 27, 2012 09:41 AM (Z2fb7)
Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius at August 27, 2012 01:29 PM (exvgC)
--
You're doing it wrong, or going to the wrong places. There is a place in Abbeville where the crawdads are so big, you can crack the claws.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at August 27, 2012 09:43 AM (xtvQl)
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie ® at August 27, 2012 09:43 AM (1hM1d)
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3287/2649589836_963ec97d0a_m.jpg
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at August 27, 2012 09:43 AM (Z2fb7)
Yeh, I should have said "not far southern". I'm just wondering how crazy the stores will be tomorrow morning.
Posted by: Mama AJ at August 27, 2012 09:45 AM (SUKHu)
Camille washed two barges into the Hwy 90 median from the Port of Gulfport. They had fun getting those out.
I'm not if I mean those or an entire hotel that got dropped in the highway. So many photos of damage to remember...
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at August 27, 2012 09:46 AM (e0xKF)
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie ® at August 27, 2012 09:47 AM (1hM1d)
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at August 27, 2012 09:47 AM (Z2fb7)
I had posted pics of the barge and the McDonald's sign I took about a month after Katrina.
http://annapuna.blogspot.com/2009/08/katrina.html
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at August 27, 2012 09:49 AM (Z2fb7)
Posted by: tocquevillian at August 27, 2012 10:00 AM (iuY0Y)
*
*
Then let the restaurant staff do the cracking. I'm a grownup now: I eat with a knife and fork, and I don't play with my food.
Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius at August 27, 2012 10:00 AM (exvgC)
Posted by: NC Mountain Girl at August 27, 2012 10:24 AM (4QwE4)
Posted by: toby928© eyewitness account at August 27, 2012 10:45 AM (QupBk)
Great. We'll get a frog choker, then it'll all run off before soaking in.
Posted by: rickb223 at August 27, 2012 11:55 AM (zji3t)
Posted by: steevy at August 27, 2012 01:12 PM (6o4Fb)
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Posted by: garrett at August 27, 2012 08:42 AM (mKlwW)