August 14, 2012
— Ace First, I'll cite the one I don't believe, because it's PPP, and they loves them some Democratic oversampling. Nevertheless, the oversample Democrats all the time, so while you can't put much stock in their numbers, you can read something into the direction of the trend: and that trend is from 12 point Obama lead to a 6 point one.
So: A six point swing from Obama to Romney.
But then there's this one by WMUR, where Obama's former 9 point lead is now down to... three.
Three is nothing. Three is, in fact, a statistical tie. MoE.
Also a six point swing in Romney's favor, right?
First, Obama's favorability ratings have plunged in the state over the past six months. In February, his positive-negative favorability rating stood at 53-40. That's now down to an even 47-47, a 13-point swing in six months. What helps him keep his lead is a 41-49 favorable-to-unfavorable rating for Romney.
And in related news, Paul Ryan actually has the best fav/unfav numbers of any of the four men on the major party tickets, at 50/38.
Oh: I ignored this because Gallup has been frozen at around a 46-46 tie for a while. Sometimes one candidate goes ahead by 1, 2, or 3; then it comes back to a tie.
Romney just took the lead, 47-45, for the first time in a while -- since June 18.
But... this is such a small move, similar to all the other small moves that meant nothing, I'd ignore it until it becomes a trend.
Obama's also slowly dropping on Intrade.
Thanks to @comradearthur for the last one.
Posted by: Ace at
12:13 PM
| Comments (260)
Post contains 285 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at August 14, 2012 12:16 PM (RD7QR)
Posted by: BHO at August 14, 2012 12:16 PM (MMC8r)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 14, 2012 12:16 PM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Soledad O'Brien's Earpiece at August 14, 2012 12:16 PM (QKKT0)
Posted by: kevin durant fan at August 14, 2012 12:17 PM (oZfic)
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at August 14, 2012 12:17 PM (BiMP/)
-----
oooooh...... we havent even started yet.
Posted by: THE M.F.M. at August 14, 2012 12:17 PM (C8hzL)
Posted by: heh at August 14, 2012 12:17 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: toby928© at August 14, 2012 12:17 PM (evdj2)
Posted by: Joe Bidens Fork Cork at August 14, 2012 12:17 PM (7mIFX)
She is now spouting this cancer nonsense. If that's how she want to play, get ready for the volley back.
Posted by: Exile at August 14, 2012 12:19 PM (GGCsk)
Could you imagine the kinds of hysterical SNL skits that would be created if say a Republican president relied on his teleprompter as much as Barry does?
Posted by: General Woundwort at August 14, 2012 12:19 PM (06lNq)
Sununu rocks & is one smart SOB! Six sigma, IIRC.
Posted by: jeanne at August 14, 2012 12:20 PM (GdalM)
Posted by: heh at August 14, 2012 12:20 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: Joe Biden at August 14, 2012 12:20 PM (QKKT0)
Posted by: Exile at August 14, 2012 12:20 PM (GGCsk)
Posted by: Joe Bidens Enzyte Sample at August 14, 2012 12:20 PM (7mIFX)
Why does Average Joe suck cock by choice?
Posted by: eleven at August 14, 2012 12:21 PM (KXm42)
Posted by: zombie Ronald Reagan at August 14, 2012 12:21 PM (8g9qq)
Posted by: Roy at August 14, 2012 12:22 PM (VndSC)
Best to not.
Yup.
It's actually best to comment at JWF. The season is about to open.
Posted by: Exile at August 14, 2012 12:22 PM (GGCsk)
Posted by: Joe "Kid Scranton" Biden at August 14, 2012 12:22 PM (sbV1u)
Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at August 14, 2012 12:22 PM (+lsX1)
Posted by: Little Lebowski Urban Achiever at August 14, 2012 12:23 PM (8LCi0)
Posted by: Joe Soptic at August 14, 2012 12:23 PM (QKKT0)
Posted by: madamex at August 14, 2012 12:23 PM (e9LVX)
Posted by: Exile at August 14, 2012 12:23 PM (GGCsk)
As I've mentioned previously, there are two things that might keep NH from going red for Romney/Ryan:
1) Our wide open gubernatorial election. The Dems will want to keep hold of the governor's seat, which will send them to the polls in numbers they wouldn't have if Lynch had decided to run again. And they're going to try and take back some seats in our General Court, which went blindingly red in 2010.
and/or
2) Voter fraud. James O'Keefe already demonstrated how easy it would be for someone to cast a fradulent ballot in this state, and we're bordered by the nuts in Massachusetts and the wackos in Vermont. So voter fraud is definitely possible.
But let me tell you, I've seen a LOT of pro-Romney and/or anti-Obama bumper stickers and yard signs over the last few months; far more than pro-Obama. Most of the pro-Obama things I've seen have been small, polite yard signs (nothing big on the side of the highway like Romney), or bumperstickers sandwiched on the back of cars between "Coexist" and "Attack Iraq? NO!" bumper stickers; in other words, people who were going to vote for Bammy anyway. If Romney sews up the independents and the massive libertarian contingent in this state, we WILL go 'pubbie red.
Also, I want you to keep in mind that these poll numbers are coming out despite months of Obama's negative advertising blanketing the airways. For every one pro-Romney ad I've seen since June, I've probably seen ten pro-Obama (or anti-Romney) ads. Bammy's pouring his money into this state, and he's still losing ground.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/i][/b][/u] at August 14, 2012 12:24 PM (4df7R)
Posted by: madamex at August 14, 2012 12:24 PM (e9LVX)
Posted by: Joey Biden at August 14, 2012 12:24 PM (6Cjut)
Posted by: Joe Bidens Pudding Cup at August 14, 2012 12:25 PM (7mIFX)
Posted by: Exile at August 14, 2012 12:25 PM (GGCsk)
Obama has three full-time jobs right now. In decreasing order of importance (to him):
1) Fundraising
2) Campaigning
3) Being President.
Even assuming that he cuts the Presidential duties down to the bare minimum, there is still a lot he can't squirm out of. And either the fundraising or the campaigning is a full-time job by itself. Check the online presidential schedule.
And this has been going on for several months already. He is going to make mistakes.
An international crisis would be bad news, because not only will he be in poor shape to respond, but he is not looking far enough forward to head off the problem before it blindsides him.
But as far as the fundraising and campaigning, he is going to make some grave errors that will play into Romney's hands.
Posted by: Sweet Lou at August 14, 2012 12:25 PM (gsPPG)
Posted by: tasker at August 14, 2012 12:25 PM (r2PLg)
Posted by: TheLittlShiningMan at August 14, 2012 12:26 PM (PH+2B)
Posted by: Fritz at August 14, 2012 12:26 PM (RuVpG)
Posted by: BIG ROB at August 14, 2012 12:26 PM (MuXag)
You want to know one thing I think is helping Romney here in the Granite state?
Sununu is our former governor.
Keep letting Sununu put the smack down on lefties, Romney, and don't rein him in. NH-ites puff up with pride when we see that.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/i][/b][/u] at August 14, 2012 12:27 PM (4df7R)
Posted by: Exile at August 14, 2012 12:27 PM (GGCsk)
WTF? She put herself out there with her school-lunch legislation.
Yes, I know she was never elected to legislative office, but apparently that doesn't matter anymore.
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ needs a beer at August 14, 2012 12:27 PM (ZKzrr)
Posted by: weak on national security at August 14, 2012 12:28 PM (HOOye)
Remember when the lady from NH got fired from the store because she wouldn't sell the cigs to the kid with the EBT card. People that work are not happy.
Thanks for the heads up. I'll be avoiding their retail locations.
Posted by: fluffy at August 14, 2012 12:29 PM (3SvjA)
Posted by: Nevergiveup at August 14, 2012 12:29 PM (05RcU)
Posted by: Barky Obumbles at August 14, 2012 12:29 PM (ff2kT)
Posted by: eleven at August 14, 2012 04:21 PM (KXm42)
Because this is still a free country and he can suck dick if he chooses.
Posted by: © Sponge at August 14, 2012 12:29 PM (UK9cE)
All your ampersands are belong to us.
You have no chance to survive make your time.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular With Full Stomping Power! at August 14, 2012 12:29 PM (0q2P7)
This time the lady said, "Oh, he's already voted. He voted absentee."
I thought that sounded odd because my son told me he didn't really have a preference in this primary, so I emailed him and asked him if he had sent in a military absentee ballot for this primary.
He emailed me back and said he had not. So either the lady made an error or someone who knows he is overseas used his name. I think I have to go back over there and file a challenge.
Just another election day in Wisconsin ....
Posted by: mama winger in Paul Ryan's district at August 14, 2012 12:30 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: Finn McCool at August 14, 2012 12:30 PM (R/8dI)
Russian attack submarine sailed in Gulf of Mexico undetected for weeks, U.S. officials say
I always thought the extremely liberal Louisiana firearms laws and a few hearty shrimp fisherman would take care of that.
Oops.
Posted by: Exile at August 14, 2012 12:30 PM (GGCsk)
Posted by: tasker at August 14, 2012 12:30 PM (r2PLg)
Posted by: Nevergiveup at August 14, 2012 12:31 PM (05RcU)
Honestly what's next? Will they say Romney was involved in the Lindbergh kidnapping and question where Ryan was the night Titanic sunk?
Posted by: Exile at August 14, 2012 12:32 PM (GGCsk)
Posted by: tasker at August 14, 2012 12:32 PM (r2PLg)
Posted by: weak on national security at August 14, 2012 12:32 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: Stark Dickflüssig at August 14, 2012 12:33 PM (ZagXV)
Posted by: toby928© at August 14, 2012 12:33 PM (evdj2)
Posted by: sven10077 at August 14, 2012 12:33 PM (LRFds)
Remember when the lady from NH got fired from the store because she wouldn't sell the cigs to the kid with the EBT card. People that work are not happy.
Unfortunately that's the case just about anywhere that has an EBT card; not just NH. EBT recipients can use the EBT card like an ATM card to withdraw cash, then spend the cash on whatever they want. Since there's no way to track what they use the cash on, and since EBT purchase records are off-limits (because racist?), there's no way to track or enforce EBT regulations, so they just get to use them for whatever they want.
The logical solution, of course, would be to say, "Then don't let them use their EBT cards like an ATM card, and when they try to purchase cigs with the card have the register automatically reject it."
But that can't happen, you see, because RACIST.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/i][/b][/u] at August 14, 2012 12:33 PM (4df7R)
That Joe Biden is one smart man.
Posted by: Forrest Gump at August 14, 2012 12:33 PM (vjyZP)
Posted by: the Butcher at August 14, 2012 12:33 PM (8g9qq)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular With Full Stomping Power! at August 14, 2012 12:33 PM (0q2P7)
Posted by: tasker at August 14, 2012 12:34 PM (r2PLg)
Posted by: Barky Obumbles at August 14, 2012 12:34 PM (ff2kT)
I thought that sounded odd because my son told me he didn't really have a preference in this primary, so I emailed him and asked him if he had sent in a military absentee ballot for this primary.
He emailed me back and said he had not. So either the lady made an error or someone who knows he is overseas used his name. I think I have to go back over there and file a challenge.
Just another election day in Wisconsin ....
Posted by: mama winger in Paul Ryan's district at August 14, 2012 04:30 PM (P6QsQ)
THIS ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This is going to happen a LOT in November. A LOT.......
Posted by: © Sponge at August 14, 2012 12:34 PM (UK9cE)
Posted by: Exile at August 14, 2012 04:32 PM (GGCsk)
---------
The weekend before the Scott Walker recall election, Daily Kos ran a story alleging that they had found a love-child from his college days, and that at the time, Scott Walker (who is strongly pro-life) had encouraged this supposed girlfriend to have an abortion.
They have no moral compass. Or if they do, it points towards hell.
Posted by: mama winger in Paul Ryan's district at August 14, 2012 12:34 PM (P6QsQ)
It wasn't aimed at you --
a) No way you've been overstressing --You are a pro at pacing yourself
b) Its hard to think of any way you could be more gaffe-prone.
Don't change a thing.
Posted by: Sweet Lou at August 14, 2012 12:35 PM (gsPPG)
Posted by: Nevergiveup at August 14, 2012 12:35 PM (05RcU)
Just voted in the FL primary---cop outside told me that the lady under the tree was a reporter, so I veered far away, didn't she chase me down anyway, I told her I don't speak to the press "because you cocksuckers got Obama elected".
OK I didn't say the part in quotes.
Posted by: USS Diversity at August 14, 2012 12:36 PM (2d71t)
I too am so tired of FLOTUS. I am tired of listening to how lovely she looks (really, not to be cruel but her bite, that wall-eye?) how well she dresses (wha?) how much she does for military families (for photo ops) and her wonderful advice on diet and exercise (heal thyself).
And she is everywhere. On Leno, thrusting herself in to the Olympics at every opportunity. She seems to think she is royalty.
I got some junk mail from her requesting a donation "Are your In?" Seriously? Do they think she is their big secret weapon? Cause everyone finds scolds so appealing? Really?
Posted by: thunderb at August 14, 2012 12:36 PM (Dnbau)
Romney and Ryan convinced Hitler and the German people that Jews were bad.
Now that has to be a thread winner, somewhere.
Posted by: Jack at August 14, 2012 12:37 PM (wUFaM)
Posted by: Uncle Milty at August 14, 2012 12:37 PM (8J5Ck)
Posted by: USA at August 14, 2012 12:37 PM (6Cjut)
The only thing that might keep me from getting epically smashed on election night is the thought of possibly having to defend casa de Palandine from rampaging assholes from the hood.
Posted by: Palandine at August 14, 2012 12:38 PM (g7D8V)
Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 14, 2012 12:38 PM (1Jaio)
This time the lady said, "Oh, he's already voted. He voted absentee."
I thought that sounded odd because my son told me he didn't really have a preference in this primary, so I emailed him and asked him if he had sent in a military absentee ballot for this primary.
He emailed me back and said he had not. So either the lady made an error or someone who knows he is overseas used his name. I think I have to go back over there and file a challenge.
Just another election day in Wisconsin ....
Posted by: mama winger in Paul Ryan's district at August 14, 2012 04:30 PM (P6QsQ)
Ugh, I hope she just made an error. There's no such thing as voter fraud, remember? /sarc
Posted by: DangerGirl at August 14, 2012 12:38 PM (GrtrJ)
Keep laughing, Pubbies. I'm sure that the hateful convention in Nuremberg, I mean Tampa, will open the eyes of America. And if that doesn't, the Code Pink Vaginas certainly will!!!
Posted by: Leftardo at August 14, 2012 12:38 PM (YmPwQ)
Posted by: withering away at August 14, 2012 12:39 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: Joe Bidens Fecal Urgency at August 14, 2012 12:39 PM (7mIFX)
102
I got some junk mail from her requesting a donation "Are your In?" Seriously? Do they think she is their big secret weapon? Cause everyone finds scolds so appealing? Really?
Posted by: thunderb at August 14, 2012 04:36 PM (Dnbau)
I've got my stink eye on you, buster!
Posted by: Scowlly McScolderson, FLOTUS at August 14, 2012 12:40 PM (0AClR)
Just said liberals want blacks to be on the government plantation.
Posted by: © Sponge at August 14, 2012 12:40 PM (UK9cE)
Posted by: Mr Fever Head at August 14, 2012 12:40 PM (SzAZ7)
I've had a thought that is admittedly a long shot but . . . .
Let's suppose you are a megalomaniac narcissist who IS running for re-election and not getting a lot of traction. You see your opponent get a lot of traction and money for naming a bold running mate. You know that your running mate will embarrass the hell out of you and won't excite the voters or the doners. You need a new, exciting, bold running mate to Stir something up. But who? Then the First Lady wanders in and you think AHA! Obama/Obama 2012.
Posted by: WalrusRex at August 14, 2012 12:41 PM (XUKZU)
While on the subject of Mooch, has it been mentioned that she scolded All-Around Olympic gymnastics champion Gabby Douglas for eating an Egg McMuffin?
I would have liked Gabby to turn to her and say, "Mrs. Obama, the next time you spend seven hours a day doing backflips, handsprings, leaps, and splits on a piece of wood that's not even as wide as your foot, then follow it up by swinging your body around on a couple of uneven bars like a human taffy pull, and then finish off the day with some aerobic dancing on a big, square mat and a power run to send yourself flying over a vault horse.... THEN you can lecture me on my eating habits."
Stupid Mooch. I bet she'd beat Michael Phelps' head in if she heard how he'd eat 8000 calories a day to have the energy to swim like he does.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO Supporter [/i][/b][/u] at August 14, 2012 12:41 PM (4df7R)
Why'd you have to say 50? Why couldn't you just say 35 or 38 or something?
Posted by: eleven at August 14, 2012 12:41 PM (KXm42)
Today on Rt 2 here in the People's Repbulic of Massachusetts, I saw a bumper sticker stating 'I Built my Business"
It was on a big-ass SUV.
Posted by: fluffy at August 14, 2012 12:42 PM (3SvjA)
Posted by: The Hindenberg at August 14, 2012 12:42 PM (ff2kT)
Posted by: Jhp2 at August 14, 2012 12:42 PM (rhJsn)
Posted by: reason at August 14, 2012 12:43 PM (F26eZ)
A Russian nuclear-powered attack submarine armed with long-range cruise missiles operated undetected in the Gulf of Mexico for several weeks and its travel in strategic U.S. waters was only confirmed after it left the region, the Washington Free Beacon has learned.
-------------------------------------------------------
It's the new "flexibility".
Posted by: Soona at August 14, 2012 12:43 PM (4cXbW)
Posted by: Joe Bidens Painful Rectal Itch at August 14, 2012 12:43 PM (7mIFX)
Just said liberals want blacks to be on the government plantation.
Posted by: © Sponge at August 14, 2012 04:40 PM
Alan West is the man. I hope he speaks at the convention. I love how he called obama a low level socialist agitator.
Posted by: Berserker at August 14, 2012 12:43 PM (FMbng)
Let's suppose you are a megalomaniac narcissist who IS running for re-election and not getting a lotof traction. You see your opponent get a lot of traction and money for naming a bold running mate. You know that your running matewill embarrass the hell out of you and won't excite the voters or the doners. You need a new, exciting, bold running mate to Stir something up. But who? Then theFirst Lady wanders in and you thinkAHA! Obama/Obama 2012.
Posted by: WalrusRex at August 14, 2012 04:41 PM (XUKZU)
No can do. They're both from the same state... and that state is anti-American.
Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars at August 14, 2012 12:43 PM (0AClR)
Posted by: give me liberty... at August 14, 2012 12:43 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO Supporter at August 14, 2012 04:41 PM (4df7R)
The sheer asininity of that statement is that Gabby said she "splurged" and got an Egg McMuffin. Meaning that she RARELY EATS them, but decided to "celebrate" winning a gold.......
I sincerely hope she winds up on the streets some day.
Posted by: © Sponge at August 14, 2012 12:44 PM (UK9cE)
Posted by: Joe Bidens Liver Spots at August 14, 2012 12:45 PM (7mIFX)
Posted by: Smilin' Joe Biden at August 14, 2012 12:45 PM (B/yDO)
Posted by: submarines > drones at August 14, 2012 12:45 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: Adam at August 14, 2012 12:45 PM (/YJYi)
Posted by: Barack at August 14, 2012 12:45 PM (SzAZ7)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at August 14, 2012 12:46 PM (lh3z+)
The horror.....the horror.
Gabby Douglas is too nice a girl to tell Mooch to GFH, but I'm not...
Posted by: Palandine at August 14, 2012 12:46 PM (g7D8V)
Posted by: submarines > drones at August 14, 2012 12:47 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 12:47 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: tasker at August 14, 2012 12:47 PM (r2PLg)
NGU @ 79 - The Navy's ASW capabilities have been deteriorating since the end of the Cold War.
Scrambling back up the learning curve during the next war will be expensive. Assuming we have the time to do so.
Posted by: BUTCH at August 14, 2012 12:47 PM (0APJ3)
Posted by: Jack at August 14, 2012 12:48 PM (wUFaM)
So Obama's solution to high gas prices is windfarm subsidies?
Yeah this is going to work out well $5.00 gas by election day baby.
Posted by: Finn McCool at August 14, 2012 12:48 PM (R/8dI)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 12:48 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 14, 2012 12:48 PM (i330i)
Posted by: nickless at August 14, 2012 12:49 PM (MMC8r)
Its probably not that hard to game, but who cares? Its irrelevant, only die hard political junkies even know it exists.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 12:49 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: thunderb at August 14, 2012 12:49 PM (Dnbau)
Posted by: Comrade Arthur at August 14, 2012 12:49 PM (d9tUw)
Posted by: Chicxulub crater at August 14, 2012 12:49 PM (ff2kT)
You know how your toilet flushes in the middle of the night sometimes, all by itself?
Paul Ryan!
Posted by: reason at August 14, 2012 12:49 PM (F26eZ)
Posted by: Dr. Varno at August 14, 2012 12:49 PM (vRJFf)
Posted by: every time she speaks at August 14, 2012 12:49 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 04:48 PM (r4wIV)
Its funny that you guys start talking about Van Halen and "And the Cradle Will Rock" comes across the playlist.
Posted by: © Sponge at August 14, 2012 12:50 PM (UK9cE)
Posted by: sven10077 at August 14, 2012 04:33 PM (LRFds)
--------------------------------------------
Since 2004.
Posted by: Soona at August 14, 2012 12:50 PM (4cXbW)
Posted by: SMOD at August 14, 2012 12:50 PM (ff2kT)
Posted by: RightWingProf at August 14, 2012 12:50 PM (IC6Er)
Posted by: tasker at August 14, 2012 12:51 PM (r2PLg)
Posted by: Joe Biden at August 14, 2012 12:51 PM (8J5Ck)
Posted by: runner at August 14, 2012 12:51 PM (WR5xI)
http://tinyurl.com/8bhstvd
Posted by: Mr Wolf, esq at August 14, 2012 12:51 PM (Ok160)
Not to go back too many weeks, but that outpouring for Chick-fil-A had to scare the daylights out of liberals. That wasn't about gay marriage alone, not those kinds of numbers.
The dot connecting IS happening. The entire country is seeing up close and personal what those of us living in progressive paradises have seen for years.
And it angers them.
Posted by: watchtheface at August 14, 2012 12:52 PM (ROdby)
Posted by: Midaz at August 14, 2012 12:52 PM (ff2kT)
Posted by: every time she speaks>>
So what you're saying is that Mooch may be causing obesity?
Posted by: Buzzsaw at August 14, 2012 12:52 PM (tf9Ne)
Posted by: kevin durant fan at August 14, 2012 12:52 PM (oZfic)
Posted by: GuyfromNH at August 14, 2012 12:52 PM (YOe1f)
The horror.....the horror.
Right? Eating one for breakfast, lunch and dinner would barely keep a Shaolin Monk moving.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular With Full Stomping Power! at August 14, 2012 12:53 PM (0q2P7)
(NBC) - Appearing in Virginia, just a few miles from the North Carolina border, Biden won cheers despite mixing up the hard fought battlegrounds where he's stopping on his three-day swing this week.
"With you, we can win North Carolina again, and if we do, we win the election if we win with you," he said to applause.
I guess being a few miles away from a state makes it okay then. The MFM just keep spinning for them.
Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 14, 2012 12:53 PM (1Jaio)
Posted by: Joe Biden at August 14, 2012 12:53 PM (8J5Ck)
Posted by: nickless at August 14, 2012 12:53 PM (MMC8r)
124Why does Average Joe suck cock by choice?
Are you sure it's still by choice? I would have that it was reflexive or instinctive by now.
Posted by: Harry Reid at August 14, 2012 12:53 PM (/E3ql)
Hey New Hampshaah, Theyahrah gonna take away youar beah and youar chowdah, you don't wanna be chained without youar beah and chowdah, doo you?
Send John Kerry up to pander to New Hampshire. He carried the state in 2004, didn't he?
Posted by: fluffy at August 14, 2012 12:53 PM (3SvjA)
"My response would have been: It's none of your damn business what I eat."
If I were as fit as Gabby Douglas, my response would have been to challenge Michelle to a little sprint around the block.
No, no, it's fine. Go get your $600 sneakers. I'll be here...
Posted by: reason at August 14, 2012 12:53 PM (F26eZ)
Posted by: tasker at August 14, 2012 12:53 PM (r2PLg)
Barack Obama's idea of a sustainable living for middle class families is "a bottle of anything and glazed donut - to go"
Posted by: The Q at August 14, 2012 12:54 PM (B/yDO)
Posted by: tasker at August 14, 2012 12:54 PM (r2PLg)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 12:55 PM (r4wIV)
We can't have that, New Hampshire!
Posted by: Smilin' Joe Biden at August 14, 2012 12:55 PM (B/yDO)
Posted by: Nevergiveup at August 14, 2012 12:55 PM (05RcU)
Posted by: kevin durant fan at August 14, 2012 04:52 PM (oZfic)
For them, it would be you only got an A+, why didn't they give you an A++. We will be speaking to the principal shortly!
Posted by: Hrothgar (Dagny Aficionado ) at August 14, 2012 12:55 PM (Cnqmv)
Posted by: Olympic Committee at August 14, 2012 12:55 PM (SzAZ7)
Posted by: Midaz at August 14, 2012 12:55 PM (ff2kT)
Posted by: trollyaso at August 14, 2012 12:55 PM (Y7XKa)
McDonald's is a sponsor of the U.S. Olympic Team.
Mooch bullied a member of the US Olympic Team for patronizing one of her team's corporate sponsors. Let that sink in.
Mooch ridicules and insults and demeans Americans every day, but we're not allowed to call her out on it? Fuck that.
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ needs a beer at August 14, 2012 12:56 PM (ZKzrr)
Posted by: Harry Reid at August 14, 2012 12:56 PM (/E3ql)
VA is close enough to NC for government work!
Posted by: Hrothgar (Dagny Aficionado ) at August 14, 2012 12:57 PM (Cnqmv)
Yeah probably it would cover the run to the vault...
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular With Full Stomping Power! at August 14, 2012 12:57 PM (0q2P7)
Yeah but he's got karaaaazma!!!!
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 12:57 PM (r4wIV)
How is everyone? I'm, thoroughly impressed by all of the great comments by the "Horde", VFW was nice to me for the brisket I cooked for our affair today (get together), anyway reason I popped in is to tell you all that we are going to be back in charge of our Country from these rapists of freedom and that cocksucker that's leading their so called party, R&R are going to win by the largest landslide to date in American politics IMHO!
Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at August 14, 2012 12:57 PM (8Hnjw)
"Not to go back too many weeks, but that outpouring for Chick-fil-A had to scare the daylights out of liberals. That wasn't about gay marriage alone, not those kinds of numbers. "
Freedom of Speech.
And, several of my FB friends posted pictures of the lines we waited in at CFA that day. One put his up with the comment, "Hey Libs! Take a good look! This is what the polls are gonna look like in November!"
Posted by: reason at August 14, 2012 12:57 PM (F26eZ)
Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 14, 2012 12:58 PM (1Jaio)
And since all sub stuff is inherently covert letting the Ruskies think they pulled one over on you when they didn't is a win. Do not telegraph all your capabilities to the enemy is just as likely a scenario.
Posted by: Buzzsaw at August 14, 2012 12:59 PM (tf9Ne)
Posted by: Finn McCool at August 14, 2012 12:59 PM (R/8dI)
Posted by: Sherriff Joe Biden at August 14, 2012 12:59 PM (r4wIV)
http://snurl.com/24nohzs
Posted by: political correctness czar at August 14, 2012 12:59 PM (Q2Ne0)
Send John Kerry up to pander to New Hampshire. He carried the state in 2004, didn't he?
Yeah, they were the canary in the coal mine of sorts for '06 and '08. Bush really wasn't popular up here, probably hurt the Republican brand there more than anywhere else.
Posted by: Uncle Milty at August 14, 2012 12:59 PM (8J5Ck)
And eating a breakfast sandwich that...Really ain't bad for you.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular With Full Stomping Power! at August 14, 2012 01:00 PM (0q2P7)
"For them, it would be you only got an A+, why didn't they give you an A++. We will be speaking to the principal shortly!"
You got an A? Was that before or after the teacher "spread the grades around?"
Posted by: reason at August 14, 2012 01:00 PM (F26eZ)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 01:00 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: Warden at August 14, 2012 01:01 PM (v1uZf)
Despite Romney having been Governor of Taxachusetts, NH will pull the lever for him (and Ryan), and whichever Republican candidate for Governor comes out of the primary.
Live free or die, for death is not the worst of evils..... voting DemocRat is.
Posted by: Live Free Or Die at August 14, 2012 01:01 PM (C1e57)
Posted by: kevin durant fan at August 14, 2012 01:01 PM (oZfic)
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ needs a beer at August 14, 2012 04:56 PM (ZKzrr)
-------------------------------------------
I'm with you. I'm tired of the preening and condecension. These people have to go.
Posted by: Soona at August 14, 2012 01:01 PM (4cXbW)
It's so funny how the internal emails of Obama's henchmen are in full freakout mode while the usual suspects in the media try hard to convince is Ryan spells "landslide" for Obama.
Have they forgotten 2010 so soon? Ryan's plan is what they were voting for in 2010. The reason Congress's approval is so low is that they have been pussies on delivering it.
I think we have some wildly oversampled Dem leaning polls in our near future.
Posted by: Bill Mitchell at August 14, 2012 01:01 PM (hlUJY)
They didn't earn that grade. But if it was up to Romney-Ryan, they'd have gotten it in chains, while getting cancer as they were pushed off a cliff in a wheelchair!
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 01:02 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: Nevergiveup at August 14, 2012 01:02 PM (05RcU)
"Starvation" level of calories is 1200 for women and 1500 for men. A 300-calorie breakfast sandwich leaves a lot of room for food later in the day.
Maybe in 10 years, Gabby and Malia can collaborate on their memoir about their Mooch-mandated eating-disorders.
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ needs a beer at August 14, 2012 01:02 PM (ZKzrr)
Posted by: Bruce at August 14, 2012 01:02 PM (t7UID)
"And since all sub stuff is inherently covert letting the Ruskies think they pulled one over on you when they didn't is a win. Do not telegraph all your capabilities to the enemy is just as likely a scenario."
Bingo.
"Aww, dang! You got us. We had no clue that you were at [coordinate set] at 0030 that day. Nope. Nor did we know anything about you moving from there at 0215 and heading north-northeast to [coordinate set], arriving at 0500.
Boy is our face red."
Posted by: reason at August 14, 2012 01:03 PM (F26eZ)
Redistribution of grades favors the favored!
Posted by: Hrothgar (Dagny Aficionado ) at August 14, 2012 01:03 PM (Cnqmv)
Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 14, 2012 01:04 PM (1Jaio)
That's one of the parts of Hunt for the Red October I really liked. "you lost ANOTHER submarine??"
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 01:04 PM (r4wIV)
I am tired of FLOTUS, POTUS and TOTUS. They need to GTFO.
Posted by: thunderb at August 14, 2012 01:04 PM (Dnbau)
Posted by: Joe Biden, 2nd Grade Geography Champion at August 14, 2012 01:05 PM (C1e57)
Posted by: kevin durant fan at August 14, 2012 01:05 PM (oZfic)
People are chomping at the bit to get to the polls and throw these bums out. So much so, that even when it's just a chicken sandwich, they will stand in line for hours, just to signal that we are DONE with this sh**t. Imagine what it will be like when it's the real thing.
Posted by: mama winger in Paul Ryan's district at August 14, 2012 01:06 PM (P6QsQ)
Jeebus Dana Perino utters two words two different times and shuts that Fat idiot whoremonger Beckel down both times.....
Dude you shouldn't debate someone whe hasn't spent most of their lives using drugs and alcohol.....
Posted by: Finn McCool at August 14, 2012 01:07 PM (R/8dI)
Yeah but what makes me less than confident is that it was almost all white men and married white women. We already know Obama has written that bloc off.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 01:07 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: Soona at August 14, 2012 01:08 PM (4cXbW)
May it be so.
Posted by: Mr_Write at August 14, 2012 01:08 PM (VJUQK)
Posted by: Uncle Milty at August 14, 2012 01:09 PM (8J5Ck)
Posted by: Fritz at August 14, 2012 01:09 PM (7nwJ6)
They broke the new rule of campaign ads: don't talk about the opponent's ad except to quite Democrat talking heads about it, because otherwise then you have to RUN the ad. And that means free air time for the evil Republican. They'll run lots of comments about any Obama ad, because that gets the ad out there on prime time during "news" segments. But the Republican ones? Not so much.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 01:09 PM (r4wIV)
If I were as fit as Gabby Douglas, my response would have been to challenge Michelle to a little sprint around the block.
No, no, it's fine. Go get your $600 sneakers. I'll be here...
Posted by: reason at August 14, 2012 04:53 PM (F26eZ)
Gahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! I fucking hate these people. Gabby Douglas should just look at that bitch and say: "I guess you don't realize what it takes to be an elite athlete. I do. I train 7 days a week, I don't take days off or vacations. My nutrition is regimented. I eat certain things at certain times of the day, all in order to have my performance peak at a certain time. That certain time, the Olympics has passed. I don't eat junk food, I train for hours a day. Training that makes my body hurt, training that soaks me in perspiration for hours. My heart rate when I am training is the same as yours when you are asleep. My family doesn't see me as often as they would like, but that is a sacrifice that we all decided to make. My body fat percentage, it is below that of an Ethiopian famine victim. Now you want to attack me for eating an Egg McMuffin, as a treat? If you want to talk about how this "hurts you", well fuck off. This McMuffin won't hurt me at all. I am an elite, no scratch that, I AM THE elite athlete in this country. I can eat a fucking sack of Egg McMuffins every day for a month, and my ass would not be anywhere near the size of yours. Also, the discipline that I have, maybe you should try to see if your husband could have 1 1/100 of it. If he did, he could probably stop smoking for real one of these days. Throwing up bricks while basketball players are looking on does not qualify you as an athlete, it qualifies you as a jock sniffer."
rant off
I gotta quit these.
Posted by: MrCaniac at August 14, 2012 01:09 PM (1grxW)
And eating a breakfast sandwich that...Really ain't bad for you.
Applying the Kirsten Powers theory of aging, Gabby is a future fat person so FLOTUS is lecturing her for her own good. Or something.
Posted by: Retread at August 14, 2012 01:09 PM (zxitI)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 05:07 PM (r4wIV)
--------
But there are some significant states where white men and married white women are the clear majority of likely voters. Remember we are looking at the electoral map, not popular vote.
Posted by: mama winger in Paul Ryan's district at August 14, 2012 01:10 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: jimi ray at August 14, 2012 01:11 PM (79EF9)
Posted by: ShoNuff at August 14, 2012 01:11 PM (jo0fs)
Posted by: Fritz at August 14, 2012 05:09 PM (7nwJ6)
-------
COOL! I never watch the news but maybe I should tonight, eh?
Posted by: mama winger in Paul Ryan's district at August 14, 2012 01:12 PM (P6QsQ)
@237 "I can eat a fucking sack of Egg McMuffins every day for a month, and my ass would not be anywhere near the size of yours."
Love it. Fortunately for MO, (1) Douglas is only like 16, and (2) She sounds like she was raised properly - those two things mean she has respect for her elders. Even when they say stupid things.
Luckily, the Moron Horde has no respect.
Posted by: RightWingProf at August 14, 2012 01:13 PM (IC6Er)
You can get a feel for long-term trends, but not a valuable snapshot, ever. I think that's part of why exit polling has been so useless for a while now.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 01:14 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: mama winger in Paul Ryan's district at August 14, 2012 05:10 PM (P6QsQ)
Al 'release my chakra' Gore: Tell me about it
Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 14, 2012 01:14 PM (1Jaio)
the wmur poll, being local, likely has a much smaller sample size (and correspondingly, a higher margin of error at 95%).
Posted by: jimi ray at August 14, 2012 05:11 PM (79EF9)
Boyfriend thrown you the mercy roll in the hay yet?
Posted by: MrCaniac at August 14, 2012 01:14 PM (1grxW)
If for no other reason than you'd projectile vomit after the first two...
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 01:15 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: Intrade at August 14, 2012 01:17 PM (7UH99)
Posted by: goddessoftheclassroom at August 14, 2012 01:17 PM (Dm6/d)
the wmur poll, being local, likely has a much smaller sample size (and correspondingly, a higher margin of error at 95%).
Posted by: jimi ray at August 14, 2012 05:11 PM (79EF9)
Did you see this article about how the polling firms are overcounting Dems and undercounting the GOP in these polls? The GOP is up 13% in voter enthusiasm, but these polls have been placing the Dems ahead 5-8% in voter enthusiasm. Gonna be a long night for the Dems election night.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79665.html
Posted by: MrCaniac at August 14, 2012 01:18 PM (1grxW)
Problem is...the one having the meltdown has his marijuana-stained finger on the Big Red Button.
Posted by: Mr_Write at August 14, 2012 01:18 PM (VJUQK)
Posted by: kevin durant fan at August 14, 2012 01:20 PM (oZfic)
Twitter rumor, I don't think its true.
Ever notice that when a poll goes against what someone wants to believe they get all technical about statistics and margins of error and who is questioned and wording order and so on, but when it goes the way they want, all the sudden its a great poll?
As far as I'm concerned they're all crap.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 01:21 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: kevin durant fan at August 14, 2012 01:23 PM (oZfic)
Posted by: Joltin' Slo-Jo Blow MoFo at August 14, 2012 01:23 PM (6RauJ)
Posted by: PPP at August 14, 2012 01:25 PM (6RauJ)
Posted by: Biden, Joe Biden at August 14, 2012 01:29 PM (6RauJ)
Posted by: Lee at August 14, 2012 01:30 PM (RtwOA)
Posted by: kevin durant fan at August 14, 2012 01:32 PM (oZfic)
"Great event and I was thisclose to MKH as we were leaving."
I've got to know. Does she actually smell like ham? Whenever I see her, I always wonder.
And let's face it...being a moron, this would only add to her allure.
Posted by: reason at August 14, 2012 01:33 PM (W2YA6)
Posted by: give me liberty... at August 14, 2012 04:43 PM
I would have just said fuck you wookie, now go bite a shark in half.
Posted by: Berserker at August 14, 2012 01:33 PM (FMbng)
"she got to meet the first lady"
I remember when this was actually something that, no matter what the political climate was, anyone would be pleased to do. Ahh, back in the misty past of...2008...
Posted by: reason at August 14, 2012 01:35 PM (W2YA6)
Posted by: kevin durant fan at August 14, 2012 05:23 PM (oZfic)
Shut up you lying linkwhore.
Posted by: buzzion at August 14, 2012 01:37 PM (GULKT)
(on the phone) No, I'm not kidding she smelled like bacon... I'm serious. I almost took a bite of her arm as she went by...
Posted by: Batman at August 14, 2012 01:40 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: jimi ray at August 14, 2012 01:55 PM (79EF9)
Posted by: steevy at August 14, 2012 02:02 PM (6o4Fb)
Posted by: kevin durant fan at August 14, 2012 02:11 PM (oZfic)
Posted by: Dr. Gergenfly Tardyaso at August 14, 2012 02:50 PM (aHR5E)
Posted by: Opinionator at August 14, 2012 03:12 PM (H14Av)
parties have consistent patterns year after year. The second thing to notice is the relative variation between D's and R's. R's consistently support their candidate about 3% more than D's year after year. The crossover between D's and R's is similar in that 3% more D's cross over and vote for the Republican candidate than R's crossing over to vote for the Democrat. These trends work together to give R's about a 3.5 % advantage when calculating the effect of Voter Identification for likely voters. The actual calculation of this difference can be seen in the second chart below.
When one adds the historical 2.5% Republican advantage between "registered voters" and "likely voters" to the 3.5% advantage described above one ends up with a 6% net R advantage when Party Identification is factored into a poll of registered voters! Another way of saying this is that a poll of registered voters has to have 6% more D's than R's just to realistically get D's even with R's in the polls likely voter outcome.
http://tinyurl.com/9pykk4q
Posted by: LobarPendulum at August 14, 2012 03:15 PM (2BHTg)
...wow, why am i not surprised?
a higher margin of error doesn't "help" either side...it allows BOTH for the possibility of obama's lead being even higher than the sample mean suggests, and ALSO for the possibility of ROMNEY'S lead being higher.
in fact, a margin of error ABOVE 3% would allow for the possibility that romney is ACTUALLY AHEAD, assuming the rectitude of the polling data -- where i'm from, "actually ahead" is better than "a statistical tie".
romney is obviously my candidate...especially with paul ryan, whom i have LONG claimed as my dark-horse-2012 choice for prez (and then veep), on the ticket. i have never made any post on this site (or statement in real life) saying anything nice about the worst president in history evar, so i'm not sure where you get the idea that i play for the other team just because i'm not a fucking mouth-breathing paleochristian imbecile who can't follow the simple logic of an expanded margin of error.
the only reason i brought up the statistical FACT that the +/-3% at 95% confidence arises from a sample size of 1067 is because ace's reliance on that number as a "statistical tie" is slightly inappropriate given the poll on hand.
Posted by: jimi ray at August 14, 2012 05:55 PM (79EF9)
Your concern is duly noted.
My link was about the partisan sample sizes being bullshit which means that the polls are just plain bullshit.
Where I get that you play for the other team is your gun control bullshit that you posted last night, the link to some study that you use as your desire to have all us proles unarmed for our government to take care of.
So again, I say your concern is duly noted.
Posted by: MrCaniac at August 14, 2012 03:19 PM (1grxW)
Clearly, you're a conservative voter.
Polls mean jack. Trends can tell you something, and the trend is away from your hero Obama.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 14, 2012 04:46 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: Donna V. at August 14, 2012 06:16 PM (EflcN)
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Posted by: Roy at August 14, 2012 12:15 PM (VndSC)