1
Inexplicable!

2 Polls are like assholes, everyone has one

3

"That translates into 30 million people looking for work. It's something that the mainstream media often miss."

***

Because in their bubble world, only firefighters and schoolteachers are out of jobs.

4 Any undecided voter, at this point in time, has to be a fool. Either that, or they are a part of the scam.

5
brb, contextualizin the recovery

6 Is 46 to 42 equals 5 points the new math?

7 What in holy hell does "contextualizing" mean? Is that akin to "audiblizing?"

8

I think that a lot of people will continue to lie to pollsters.....they don't want to go on record as saying that they're not going to vote for Barky.

He has reached the "scary" point.

People don't want to be punished.

9 6 Is 46 to 42 equals 5 points the new math?

Posted by: robtr at June 12, 2012 03:41 PM (MtwBb)

It sure ain't the old kind.

10 Who is more out of touch? the rich guy who believes that the economy is not doing well and the administration is helping to cause this. Or the president who thinks that the economy is doing just fine?

11 At this stage, the "undecideds" are still basing their vote on who has the crappiest impersonator on SNL.

To prove my point: Put, Clinton, Perot, or Bush the Elder in the poll, and they would cleanup.
("That cheeseburger? Warlords!")
("Can I finish?)
("Wouldn't be prudent")

12 "contextualizing"
is when you make the facts be in agreeance with the preception.

13 Am I the only one that thinks a 9 point lead among independents doesn't translate to a 5 point lead for Obama?

14 I think all the polls are now back in the old Eddie Murphy stand up:  "Let's vote for Jessie Jackson."

"hehehehe....I voted for Jessie Jackson."

The next day:

"he fucking WON!?!?"

NO WAY 50% of Americans think Obama is doing a great job and should remain president for 4 more years.  I refuse to thing this country is that fucking stupid.

15 Okay, so what the heck is "agreeance?"

16 Darn Sock.....

17 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant.

18 http://preview.tinyurl.com/7yf4n2q

19 WE stills loves Pres Bama and will votes for him even if thier is a anothe Bush recession ...

20

Polls that favor Obama are inaccurate. These polls are designed to keep people interested, after all, this is the media's Super Bowl and they will attempt to lead us all to believe it's closer than it is. The have to since their livelihood depends on it.

 

Obama will lose in a landslide.

21 Mormonism might be weird, but it's no weirder than whateverinthehell Obama believes in. Whateverinthehell that might be.

22 Obama trails independents by 7% yet leads overall by by 4%? How does that work; does Obama have a greater margin among D's than Romney has on R's? Or is this another poll that assumes 40% D, 30%R 30% independent?

23 Agreeance be when two peeps feel the same thing, boff at the same time.

24 The above is a link to Obama's boom chicka bow wow radio ad targeting blacks.  It wouldn't let me pot the link and this text as a forbidden long string.

25

Ann needs to do a shit load of behind the scenes (no cameras/no press) like paking gifts for our troops, visiting children cancer hospitals, etc.

Just let people tweet about it.

Media shows up, she leaves.

She also needs to talk about her health fights and being a mom while supporting her strong husband.

No politics.

26 So, like, mutual orgasm?

27 yeah I'm sorry, I agrees with booter - not worried about this I can hang out with hipsters in town once more! they are definitely over the O! it's quite refreshing. no they probably wont vote R, but they probably won't vote at all. it's one thing to answer a poll.

28 20 posts in and it already smells like shit in here.

Oh, hi Mary.

29 Posted by: WalrusRex at June 12, 2012 03:45 PM (jUZRg)

Fascinating.

I don't know what the link leads to because I won't click on anything that doesn't have a description...but fascinating nonetheless.

30 I see independents are getting their racism on. That's a shame because they're the low intelligence voters we can usually fool.

31
Carville and Greenberg:
"We will face an impossible headwind in November if we do not move to a new narrative...one that contextualizes the recovery...

32

It's something that the mainstream media often miss."

 

 

 

BTW: If only undecideds starting noticing the news that the main stream mouth breathers 'miss'

33 27
Now you comprehendo

34 Posted by: tcn at June 12, 2012 03:46 PM (WhSRj)

What's that?

35 I just keep telling myself that June is early and people aren't really paying attention. If I'm saying "August is early, people aren't paying attention" in late August, we'll have a problem.

36 What in holy hell does "contextualizing" mean? Is that akin to "audiblizing?" Posted by: tcn at June 12, 2012 03:41 PM (WhSRj) that's what they teach you to do in college so you can ignore questions where the answer is bad for your side. Regular person: "Did the stimulus work to bring the economy up?" "That question ignores race relationship, weather patterns, world events, and Republican extremism, therefore, it doesn't get at what is really going on with the economy, in short, it's unfair, therefore I will not answer it."

37
contextualizing the recovery = It's Bush's fault!

38

Any undecided voter, at this point in time, has to be a fool. Either that, or they are a part of the scam.

 

Most of them I know just don't really want to say outloud a) They made a mistake in '08 and b) They're voting R.  The Dems have made than such an anathema that they cringe to think it.

I don't hold it against them, I blame the culture that lead to this.  My prediction: They Swing R or stay home (largely, never account for the fools taken in by the swift talking guy from Chicago.)

39 and yet he still leads...like Walker's opponent led according to exit polls.
FROM BEHIND.

40 I don't know what the link leads to because I won't click on anything that doesn't have a description...but fascinating nonetheless.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at June 12, 2012 03:47 PM (nEUpB)

It's actually a link back to TinyURL that shows you the link to Blaze.COM and the story about how O'bumblefuck is advertizing to blacks on how he's 'got their back.'

41 Isn't a meager 5pt "lead" pretty darned crappy for an incumbent president 6 months out...considering most Americans don't know much about Romney yet?  I see the flimsy lead as acknowledgement that what Americans do know is that they're not happy with President Cool.

42 26 Ann needs to do a shit load of behind the scenes (no cameras/no press) like paking gifts for our troops, visiting children cancer hospitals, etc.
Just let people tweet about it.
Media shows up, she leaves.
She also needs to talk about her health fights and being a mom while supporting her strong husband.
No politics.

 

Posted by: momma at June 12, 2012 03:46 PM (lEJ+I)

-------------

 

Good idea.

People don't want a Republican version of Michelle-O.....someone who will usurp power, and push their own agenda on us.

Laura Bush was pretty darn wonderful in that regard, and a welcome change from Hillary. 

43 Ann Romney is a dirty whore = contextualizing the recovery.

44 Any undecided voter, at this point in time, has to be a fool. Either that, or they are a part of the scam.

Not true, and it's an attitude that won't endear you to many of those independents.  Most of them just don't pay attention to politics.  I kind of followed politics going back to the 2000 election (I couldn't vote in the 96 election), but even then I was kind of "meh" about most of it.  I didn't want Gore to win, but it's not like I thought America would end if he did.

Obama changed all that for me, and now I'm a political junkie.

Other people, though, feel deep down that there's not much difference between the two parties.  And, honestly, until the last couple of years, what have the Republicans done to change that idea?  And, in the last couple of years, most of those people are putting it down to "politics."

So the task is to (preferably) get them to see exactly what's going on so they get as mad as we are or (at least) to get them to their polling stations.

45

I'd loved to see what would happen in the mouth breathing media if some chick made a Romney girl vid.

I'd love to see their reactions to Romney chick and Obama girl in a video.

46

@CBD, the "Preview.tinyurl" links stop at tinyurl.com first to tell you where they're going.  You then have like 5 minutes or somesuch to stop it.

That one went to The Blaze for the "Targeting AA" ad.

(FWIW, you can also ad "preview." before any tinyurl to trigger that behavior.  And adding a + to the end of a bit.ly or goo.gl link takes to the stat page which will also tell you where it goes.  Safety first.)

47 one that contextualizes
the recovery

Contextualizing that which does not exist? They are really going to go with "Your life could suck worse, give us 4 more years"  ?

or

"You see, those social welfare programs are great, this depression isn't nearly as bad as the last one!"

48

Posted by: WalrusRex at June 12, 2012 03:45 PM (jUZRg)

Fascinating.

I don't know what the link leads to because I won't click on anything that doesn't have a description...but fascinating nonetheless

 

****

 

For some reason unknown to me, pixie sometimes won't let me post a link and a description.  I get a long-string rejection message.  It is a link to Obama's radio ad telling blacks to tell Obama that they got his back, all to the strains of background '70s porn music.

49 Mormons= you can become a god when you did Obama = I am a god Chrissy Matthews = Obama is a god . A tingly tingly god. Which belief system is creepier?

50 President Obama's support among Jewish voters in the state of New York has dropped 22 percentage points in only a month, according to the results of a just released poll. The poll, conducted by Siena College, finds that currently President Obama has the support of 51 percent of Jewish voters, while 43 percent are opposed to him. Five percent are undecided. That means, Obama's lead among Jewish voters is at 8 percentage points. Ya want a poll. I gotta poll for ya

51 I hate to beat a dead horse yet again, but this is sounding more and more like Carter in '80, who was polling well throughout most of the race before a collapse in the days before the election.

Obama's going to reach a point soon where his numbers will plummet and he won't be able to recover.

52

How can Obama be down 13 points among independents but be up 4 points overall?

 

How was the sampling weighted? 50% DEM?!?

 

 

53
Contextualizing the Recovery example #1:

You have no job and cannot afford gas. On the bright side, you have lots of free time and you're not putting any miles on your car.

54

"These polls are designed to keep people interested, after all, this is the media's Super Bowl and they will attempt to lead us all to believe it's closer than it is. The have to since their livelihood depends on it."

 

It's true.  If all polls  showed Barry getting soundly beaten with no hope of any other outcome WTF would Wolf Blitzer or John King do with themselves for the next four months?

 

I mean, getting the "researcher" to whisper stupid shit into Soledad's earpiece gets old after the third or fourth fortieth time...

55 Obama's going to reach a point soon where his numbers will plummet and he won't be able to recover. Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at June 12, 2012 03:53 PM (e0xKF) Shit I just came

56

oops

 

"down 13 points" = "down 7 points"

 

57 you're not putting any miles on your car. Posted by: Soothsayer at June 12, 2012 03:53 PM (9Q7Nu) Yes, why not take some of the money you saved on car maintenance and buy a big screen! They are on sale at Walmart.

58 Heard Rombley on Boortz today.  Actually talking about his plan instead of blasting on Obama.  He needs to do more of this istead of 90% attacks on Obama or else he's not going to pick anybody else up. 

59
Good idea.
People don't want a Republican version ofMichelle-O.....someone who will usurp power, and push their own agenda on us.
Laura Bush was pretty darn wonderful in that regard, and a welcome change from Hillary.

Posted by: wheatie at June 12, 2012 03:50 PM (/V8D4)

I've been saying for YEARS that the RNC needs to focus on the First Ladies for awhile.

I mean, compare Hillary to Barbara or Laura Bush.  Teresa Heinz......seriously?  Now we've got Michelle?  Start shining light on exactly what Democrat wives think they're entitled to when they get to the White House as opposed to Republican wives.

60

"Obama's going to reach a point soon where his numbers will plummet and he won't be able to recover."

 

Whooooops!  HERE WE GO AGAAAAAAAAAAAAIN!!!!!

61 I'd loved to see what would happen in the mouth breathing media if some chick made a Romney girl vid.
I'd love to see their reactions to Romney chick and Obama girl in a video.



I would make the Romney Girl and Obama Girl fight in a kiddie pool filled with AstroGlide. 

Then clean each other off in a shower.

62 36 - Exactly! Why in the world would anyone expect the millions of wishy washy voters to have decided anything now, its still june! We have the olympics, then I think another season of American idol to get through first, before these numbskulls really start considering what to do in november.

63 The polls will start balancing the party shares and re-aligning in the Sept-Oct period. They'll be more interested in holding on to whatever credibility they have left.

64 Listened to the ad. I kept expecting Ike Turner to pipe up and tell us about how Obama is his baby. Yeesh.

65

"I'd loved to see what would happen in the mouth breathing media if some chick made a Romney girl vid. I'd love to see their reactions to Romney chick and Obama girl in a video."

 

Theologically, Mormonism is simply nuts, but there are some SMOKIN' HAWT Mormon chicks out there.

 

Hell, maybe even ol' Megan McCain might like to film a wet t-shirt endorsement of Romney.

 

 

66 >>>I didn't want Gore to win, but it's not like I thought America would end if he did.

I was fairly certain he would eviscerate the US Economy with his Church of Green environmental policies.

67

Carter in '80, who was polling well throughout most of the race before a collapse in the days before the election.

****

 

People didn't want to be identified as someone who was prejudiced against the dentally impaired.

68 Ace posted again!

69

1.  Polls are used to make newspaper stories.  Crappy polls work as well as good polls.

2.  The media know that once Obama loses the lead, he is not getting it back.

3.  The media are in the tank for Obama.  So are 40-45% of the people in the US.

4.  The only way to sell news is to have some story to sell today and tomorrow. 

Therefore they need to sell the story as Obama is ahead, but he is weak in some sector, or he is losing ground with X or gaining ground with Y.  "It's a horserace," not It's all horse-sh!

 

Expect the polls to show a "sudden" "dramatic" shift about November 1, just before the real votes take place. 

-See!  We were really close to the final results.  Everything changed about October 31.  The voters went to Romney is a sudden landslide!

 

 

70 Obama leads according to who? It's all processed bullshit. Any poll with Obama leading is clearly the Spam of the Steak world.

71 Ace must've drank a purpledrank or something

72 I don't know what the link leads to because I won't click on anything that doesn't have a description...>>

I have preview mode set for tinyurl which then shows you the full url and then you chose whether to go on to the link. It has saved me quite a few times.

73

Hell, maybe even ol' Megan McCain might like to film a wet t-shirt endorsement of Romney.

***

 

There's a brutal review of Meggy Mac's book on NRO.

74

Yes, polls are predictive - polls of likely voters.  Was this once of likeley voters?  No, I see on the site that it's only of registered voters.  LIKELY voter polls are predictive, assuming they aren't too skewed... and in those, Romney LEADS.

Now, with 12 points undecided... that's as good as 8 points for Romney once they "decided," based on past voter patterns.  Like Toe Sucker Morris always says, "If someone asks you how if you'll elect to keep your wife next year, and you're undecided... it's not a good sign for your marriage."  So even THIS inadequate poll indicates a narrow Romney victory of 50% to 48%. 

All in all, it adds up to this: Mika Brezinski will be weeping sweet, sweet tears of utter devastation on Morning Joe come the day after Election Day 2012.  And I'll be loving it.

 

 

75 I was fairly certain he would eviscerate the US Economy with his Church of Green environmental policies.

I'm not saying my current self would agree with my younger self.

76 Eh. We're making excuses for a mediocre showing by Mitt. Romney needs to mix some "I'm Mitt Romney and I'm okay" messages in with the attack ads.

77

 

I actually hope that Barky's poll numbers don't plummet.

 

We don't know what he will do, if he gets really desperate.

What he's done so far, is bad enough.

 

Create a huge crisis so he can look good in front of it?

He could do that.

Anyone as shameless and petty and power-hungry....as Barky has shown himself to be.....is both creepy and scary enough to do...anything.

 

So for that reason, I hope the poll numbers stay pretty close....right up to the election.

 

78

"There's a brutal review of Meggy Mac's book on NRO."

 

Any nekkid pics?

 

 

79 HEY!! someone told me there would be poles and assholes!!  Did someone mention poles and assholes?? I need poles and assholes please!! Can I get some poles and assholes?? Poles. And. Assholes.

80

"I'd loved to see what would happen in the mouth breathing media if some chick made a Romney girl vid. "

 

Tonight, we open with a shocking new video of what may possibly be conclusive evidence that Mormon Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney  may in fact have multiple spouses.

 

For in depth analysis we now turn to noted Mormonism expert, George Stephaluffagus...George?

81 Ugh, sorry about my spelling.  Too much coffee.

82

"Mika Brezinski will be weeping sweet, sweet tears of utter devastation on Morning Joe come the day after Election Day 2012."

 

If Mika made a nekkid Obama Girl youtube, then I'd watch it.

 

83 Back in '68 Nixon's campaign had a 'mysterious Ohio girl in an A-line dress' meme.  Anybody else remember that, or are they all dead by now?

84 Ugh, sorry about my spelling. Too much coffee. Posted by: CoolCzech at June 12, 2012 03:59 PM (Iaxlk) See being a Doc I don't have to apologize for my spelling. It's expected

85 Independents.  God love em.  The Doug Heffernan bloc.

86

"I didn't want Gore to win, but it's not like I thought America would end if he did."

 

I'd agree with that if my only knowledge of history was up to 10 September 2001.

 

President Gore + 11 September == !America

87

I'd love to see their reactions to Romney chick and Obama girl in a video.

 

Only if it involves some cole slaw and a   kidde pool.

88 Spike Lee is predicting a tough road to reelection for President Obama. “This thing is not a lock,” the filmmaker told GQ in a recent interview. “It is not a lock that President Obama is getting a second term and people have to really rekindle the enthusiasm that we had the first time.” Lee, who hosted a fundraiser for the president in January, said that he “just had a meeting with somebody high up in the Obama campaign” to discuss the race. (PHOTOS: 10 eye-popping celeb quotes on 2012) “I can't say to all the people that are unhappy with him that they're racist people,” Lee said of Obama’s critics. “People ain't got jobs, people are hurting. So I don't care what color you are, if people are out of work, it's tough. And then when you're the first African American president, that's not helping either.” Still, Lee doesn’t sound too worried about Obama’s Republican rival, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. “Once we get to the debates my man is going to tear him up!” he said. “It's going to be obvious who should lead this country for the next four years once they go head to head, toe to toe, elbow to elbow, butt to butt. And I don't think Mr. Romney can hang with him.” Hey Spike how are your Knicks doing?

89 Prediction: When they start debating, the babbling Obama will be toast.

90 Hell, maybe even ol' Megan McCain might like to film a wet t-shirt endorsement of Romney. The girl has nice boobies. Regardless of your political affiliation you would play with those boobies. You would slap the shit out of her on the way out the door but you would play with tose boobies.

91 I'd agree with that if my only knowledge of history was up to 10 September 2001.

Well, in November 2000, we didn't know about September 2001, did we?  Again, the current me wouldn't be so sanguine about Al Gore being President.  In fact, the current me isn't sanguine about any Commie-Crat being President ever again.

92 How's that feller in Texas pollin'? I kinda favor him.

93 The poll choices must have been:

1.  I will vote for Obama and his plan for America. or

2.  I'm a racist and will not vote for Obama solely because he is black.

And still there's only a 5 point lead for O'Bumbles.

94

“I can't say to all the people that are unhappy with him that they're racist people,” Lee said of Obama’s critics. “People ain't got jobs, people are hurting. So I don't care what color you are, if people are out of work, it's tough. And then when you're the first African American president, that's not helping either.”

 

Credit where it is due, I suppose...  Spike had a mental growth-spurt.

 

Because, as memory serves,  just a few months ago, Spike was  absolutely convinced that the ONLY REASON  George Zimmerman pulled the trigger was because of a brief moment of clarity where he realized he was white, and Trayvon(TM) was black.

95 There's a brutal review of Meggy Mac's book on NRO.

Posted by: WalrusRex at June 12, 2012 03:58 PM (jUZRg)

**

Pfft.... the NEO-CONS at NRO were never gonna give me a fair shake. A milk shake maybe, but never a fair shake. Hater Rethuglicans haven't a emoticon of decency. Except for Jeb Bush he's cool and hip with the younger generation. I hear he likes gays and thats cool ya know cuz everyone should like except gays and stuff. This is the twentieth millenium afterall.

 

96 This Eeyore poll post is Allah-worthy

97

Ahh, the joys of universal suffrage.  Worst.  Mistake.  Ever.  And the reason why all we do is just a delaying action, especially since we've disengaged from the culture war.

98 42 Isn't a meager 5pt "lead" pretty darned crappy for an incumbent president 6 months out...considering most Americans don't know much about Romney yet? No and the fact that he can't crack 50% is of no consequence either.

99 Jeb is merely the pure ass-sucking essence of the whole shit-for-brains Bush clan.

100

According the information available, this is a poll of adults, with no breakdown of party affiliation, weighting data or sufficient crosstabs to make an educated guess as to how skewed it is.

 

Still, the headline says Obama leads by 5 points, so it accomplished its purpose.  People who donÂ’t know any better will still believe he has a chance.

101 Romney's fickle. If that's the problem, it won't do any good to panic.  Wait patiently before placing expectations on the voters to rally on Mitt's behalf when he hasn't rallied on voters' behalf so far as they are concerned. If it's to be Mitt on the ticket, don't expect the distrusting voters to line up in support before Mitt actually aligns himself with voter demands. Whip Mitt in shape first; then cinch whatever voter expectations closer to the election, leaving him less time to spill his beans at the last minute. Otherwise, over a long duration he'd give voters too many reasons to change their minds and drop him after all because of whatever discontent.
Examples:
 Andrew C. McCarthy "Romney's Syria Problem" NRO 6-2-12
 "RomneyÂ’s Advisers Met With Obama to Help Craft ‘ObamacareÂ’" FOX News 10-11-1. (still top adviser to Romney)

 

102 What's the partisan breakdown of the polling? Does it resemble 2008, 2004 or liberal fantasyland?

103 101 It seems Jeb would like to replace Obama and would accept the Democrat National ticket.

104

@93 - absolutely agreed.  Nobody knew.  Well......ok....the average American didn't know...  (oooooh, tinfoil!  Let me wear that!).

 

They will never admit it, but your average Democrat recognizes deep down that this country dodged a bullet by electing W over Gore in 2000.  Gore would have been DEPLORABLE in handling the attacks, steadying the country, and launching troops into the middle east.

105 The polls say Obama's up, so he must be doing fine! After all, the polls NEVER lie.

106 If Plan A and Plan B fail there's always me....

107 Reasonably on-topic:

PPP is saying that Romney would get 20% of the black vote in North Carolina if the election were held today.

I'm hoping for similar numbers in a few specific swing-states like Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin, etc.

108 I say Obama loses in a landslide. The economy is shit and likely to get worse, his message is stale, and he's too stupid, lazy and stubborn to switch tactics.

109 Methinks if Obama follows the Carville recommendations and Romney doesn't further endear himself to Independents, they break for Obama.

Remember, these people are the fickle idiots that pushed Mr. Hope and Change over the edge in 2008. They are predisposed to voting for him- but just can't bring themselves to do so with the economy is such poor shape. The affects are evident in most peoples lives everyday.

If that everyday despair seems to be mitigated or marginally improves, these folks will put their heads back in the sand and come November pull the lever for Obama. They really believe that partisan politics are what drives the opposition to Obama.

I would be very skeptical about counting these people in the Romney count unless something significantly changes the game in his favor. That includes unusually high Republican turnout at the polls- which can happen.

110 I'm with Warden.  Unless Romneh gets caught in a Sandusky like situation, he's got it by the balls.

111

Most troubling for Obama is that he trails his GOP rival 36%-43% among independent voters, with 12% undecided.

 

Is that "12%" really intended to be 21%?  The numbers would work so much better that way, were this only dyslexia in action...

112 Obama 2012

113

Obama 2012

 

and the laziest troll in the world award goes to...

114 Jeb Bush is the Avatar of Hispandering Suck.

115 So 40 percent of Democrats in two states vote against Obama, but he still leads when you throw in Republicans?

Yeah, suuuuure.

116 They will never admit it, but your average Democrat recognizes deep down that this country dodged a bullet by electing W over Gore in 2000. Gore would have been DEPLORABLE in handling the attacks, steadying the country, and launching troops into the middle east.

Posted by: reason at June 12, 2012 04:15 PM (CGjum)

That's crazy talk.  Al would have gotten his Swift Boat Team back together and taken out Sadaam in one night operation.

117 This isn't that troubling a poll. Obama only gets 46%, and most of the undecideds will go to Romney. Anyone got a D/R/I on?

118 He's clearly leading among Independents who live in dumpsters.

119 119 He's clearly leading among Independentswho live in dumpsters.

What about the ones living in a van down by the river?

120 I'm just really glad that Bank of America just announced that  they are going to spend 50 billion of our bailout dollars on combatting climate change.

121 He's lost independents. He's fucked.

122 91 Prediction: When they start debating, the babbling Obama will be toast. Greatest debaters in the history of mankind 1) President Obama 2) Cicero 3) Socrates Note: 2 & 3 could arguably be transposed

123 polls don't matter. the electorate is volatile. all that matters is the state polls in key states. who cares what people in California, Illinois, New York, Mississippi or Texas think. They will be blue or red. I want to know about Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

124 I want to know about Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

Most of those key swing states are either in a dead heat or have Obama up by 4-6%, though Romney is up in Florida as of now.

If Obama's in a dead heat right now, getting below 50% support, he's losing that state.

125

Even if the polls are false, we should proceed as if they are true. People here were eyeore-ing the Wisconsin recall right up until the polls closed .

 

Remember how good it felt when Walker won? November will be 1000 times better.  But only if we stay focused.

126 If we learned anything about polls last time around, it is that Obama outperformed most of there predictions.

I would not take my foot off the gas until midnight of election day.

127 *their...cripes.

128 Rush has pointed out frequently that at this point in the campaign we should expect the polls to favor Obama. The pollsters are messing with the numbers to get the results they want, trying to make them true. Most polls are slanted liberal, so don't give them a lot of credence.

As we get closer to the election, these polls will drop the adults or registered voter model and start using likely voters, which is the much more accurate method. This is important, because if their results are too unreliable, they will have fewer clients next time, and the paying clients are where they make their money.

I get worried as much as the next person, but when I do, I remember Rush's piece of wisdom and try to calm down. Obama is still under 50%, and his numbers are bad for an incumbent in and election year. Not to mention, as has been pointed out endlessly, undecided voters usually break for the challenger. Rush also mentions quite often that he believes the White House's internal polls are terrible. I think Romney has a better than good chance to win this thing. I surely hope he wins, because if he doesn't Obama's first term is going to look like a cakewalk compared to the second. In that case, I think you can kiss the USA goodbye.

129 "and" = "an" (sigh)

130 Thinking about Obama's "likability." It's struck me recently just how pathetic Obama seems lately. Like, pitiful. And I wonder how much of the "likability" that he retains, the residue left over now that 2008's adoration has worn off, is justÂ… pity.

That Romney line about Obama being "a nice guy, but in over his head"-- I do think that's how a lot of Americans see him and feel about him now.
And of course the Romney bully/ alpha male thing feeds into this. The Romney campaign is eating Obama's lunch. Even Dems, even Obama-friendly MSM are now openly talking about the stink of failure and ineptitude Obama 2012 is giving off.

In 2008, all the "cool kids" worshipped a messianic Obama. Now Obama looks like a loser pathetically begging the "cool kids" not to drop him, begging them to help him, doing whatever he needs to do, whatever they ask of him (e.g. "gay marriage") to still be "in." Cf. all that embarrassing Hollywood schmoozing: in 2008 Hollywood paid court to Obama; in 2012 Obama has to pay court to Hollywood. He has to pander for the youth vote, the woman vote, etc.

Obama, in all his narcissism, has always played the sympathy card: oh look how tough my job is, how unfairly they're treating me, how mean and racist the Republicans are, etc. So many of Obama's ads and emails to supporters play just on that: ask not what Obama can do for you, ask what you can do for Obama. And sympathy does go a long way politically: this was a big part of the goodwill many of us felt (and still feel) for W. Bush, despite all his faults-- except of course W never once whined or complained in the midst of the shit-hurricane. W was always stoic and of good cheer. That's why many of us might have felt sympathy for him (all the more so because he never asked us to)-- but we never felt *pity* for him.

And crossing the line from sympathy to pity-- in politics as in relationships-- can be deadly. Many relationships last longer than they should because one partner pities the other; but once pity enters into it (as opposed to sympathy)-- when what's keeping you in a relationship is pity-- that's often a big sign that the relationship is near death. Because there's a real fine line between pity and contempt. And contempt is a relationship killer. In love as in politics.

I wonder if what's keeping many voters (especially women) from dropping Obama and going with Romney is the equivalent of a pity fuck. They don't want to hurt Obama's feelings. But once they're in the privacy of the voting boothÂ… will they give Obama a pity vote? Do Americans want a POTUS that they pity? I don't think so. At the end of the day, I think many of them will go with the alpha male whose campaign gave Obama a haircut.

Of course, it's bad if Romney comes off to people like an asshole. Cf. how Gore came off in the debates with W-- a smug arrogant bully. But Obama isn't Bush, and Romney isn't Gore. So far Romney's done a pretty good job of being a happy warrior. And the tour he's going on soon, through small towns in swing states: great opportunity to connect with and sympathize with people, and it's a great contrast to Obama's Hollywood/ haute NYC schmoozing.

131 The thing about the debates is the MSM spin - recall Biden making up Middle Eastern history to bash Bush with? Complete non-story the next day. We'll see Politifact with a mop following Obama through the debates. Count on it.

132 131 Spot on. The other weakness Obama is the massive ego and the way that Hollywood and MSM treat him like a deity. The more mockery and lampooning directed at Barry's self importance the less gravitas he has.

133

impossible for Obama to show a 4 point lead with a 7 point deficit among independents ...  mathematically impossible unless the party weights are skewed Democrat by 9 or 10 points, which has never happened in a national election, ever  ...

One odd note:

36+43 = 79 % that means 21% are undecided, not 12%

134 For those who place faith in the Federal Reserve, accept that you are 39% poorer since Obama took office.

Obama to Blame for Americans' 39% Drop in Wealth

Monday, 11 Jun 2012 07:05 PM By Paul Scicchitano

NewsMax

135 Ron Paul!

136 For some reason the SNL Bush 41 - Dukakis debate skit comes to mind ("I can't believe I'm losing to this guy"):  http://tinyurl.com/d9eky2

137 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

138 Puke irresolute independents, indecisive and irresolute. They will probably vote for Obama in the end, being so irresolute and indecisive and hateful in general. Mean spirited bastards! Oh, no, maybe not ... duh! Who would-a thunk it?!

139 "It's something that the mainstream media often miss."


Hah hah. Funniest line I've read in a while. There are hardly any journalists left in the mainstream media. You could harryhausen any group of randomly collected Pez dispensers to read the news and get more information out than most people can get from watching the evening news because of the mad skillz of the "professional journalist" corps. Or should we just give up and pronounce it "corpse" like Teh One.

140 You keep blogging Ace, right behind ya

141

Nevergiveup,    You forgot the second part of the saying, "and they all stink!"

NO ONE BELIEVES POLLS.