October 16, 2012
— Ace As you might know, I've been pushing the idea of a preference cascade in Romney's favor for a long time. Stace McCain was just talking about it.
When asked if I still believed in it, I've said, prior to Romney's debate bounce, that while I still believed it, it was getting harder and harder to believe it without supporting evidence.
But that's because I missed something.
A preference cascade occurs when a substantial number of people are falsifying their preferences -- not just in public declarations, but also, more importantly, to themselves. They accept a Narrative promoted by a ubiquitous taste-maker that sets the terms of discussion and also attaches either a social credit to preferences in line with its own, or a social demerit to preferences contrary to its preferences.
Swamped by this ubiquitous, always chattering, always nagging Narrative -- pushed by the media, of course -- many people succumb to the bandwagon effect, and begin not so much accepting the Narrative as surrendering it to it.
Humans have a strong inclination to prefer the path of least resistance. And if you think about it, that's a pretty smart play. Humans generally take the easiest path when they're walking -- they don't go wildly out of their way to find hills to climb. If there's a nice, easy, level paved road, they take it.
And that's not crazy or "weak." That's just common sense.
The media is a superhighway of spin determined to make voting Democratic the path of least resistance for a majority of American voters.
At any rate, the preference cascade theory suggests that people will continue falsifying their preferences, overwhelmed by the reinforcement of what the media is saying (and thereby, what most of their social contacts are saying), until and unless something occurs to powerfully jolt the Narrative. When that happens, people feel a license to question the media's preferences which they have surrendered to, and ultimately reject these media preferences in favor of their own, real preferences.
So that's what I kept forgetting. I kept talking about the Preference Cascade just happening.
But they don't "just happen." There is an event which triggers the cascade. Like shaking a beaker of supersaturated salts will suddenly cause a precipitate to fall. But you need that shake. Otherwise, the liquid remains as it was.
Without the jolt, people will simply continuing doing what they'd done before -- surrendering to an easy Narrative, accepting the path of least resistance, as defined by their Media Narrative Manufacturers.
So there was, I think, a preference cascade potential. But that potential only became real during the debate.
If Romney had not given what could well be the most dominating debate performance in the entire modern age of politics (since TV, in 1960), it seems very possible -- possibly likely -- that none of this would have happened.
The Debate Mattered. Among those voting for Romney (a number the debate increased overall, of course), a dramatic shift from those "just voting against Obama" to those affirmatively voting for Romney.
One thing I'm happy to be right about: Doing homework? It pays off.
Doing homework, taking your responsibilities seriously and working hard to accomplish them... these are moral virtues, too.
One of these days I might try this.
Posted by: Ace at
11:48 AM
| Comments (240)
Post contains 565 words, total size 4 kb.
Posted by: Cricket at October 16, 2012 11:51 AM (DrC22)
Posted by: Will Never Vote For a dhimmocrat at October 16, 2012 11:51 AM (kXoT0)
Posted by: Sandra Fluke at October 16, 2012 11:52 AM (DrC22)
I base it on what the Dems are DOING.
Posted by: Vic at October 16, 2012 11:53 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: Winston Wolfe at October 16, 2012 11:53 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Smirnoff Habsburg at October 16, 2012 11:54 AM (r2PLg)
Posted by: WalrusRex at October 16, 2012 11:54 AM (Hx5uv)
Posted by: taylork at October 16, 2012 11:54 AM (ppNDn)
Posted by: Will Never Vote For a dhimmocrat at October 16, 2012 11:54 AM (kXoT0)
Posted by: eastvalleyphx says fuck islam at October 16, 2012 11:54 AM (GRvW4)
Posted by: Gerg at October 16, 2012 11:54 AM (sOtz/)
Posted by: El Kabong at October 16, 2012 11:55 AM (HWj39)
People's impressions of a candidate can change on a whim. For a sitting President, the circumstances are almost always fluid.
Posted by: marcus at October 16, 2012 11:55 AM (GGCsk)
Posted by: Roy at October 16, 2012 11:56 AM (VndSC)
Posted by: El Kabong at October 16, 2012 11:56 AM (HWj39)
I missed it?!?!?!? Ace is.....no longer....Master of His Domain????
Noooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 16, 2012 11:56 AM (sbV1u)
If all you watched was the network news and network TV, and all you read was one or two of the various nationally ranked newspapers, what would you think of America's stance on gay marriage?
This isn't evidence for a preference cascade, but it certainly supports the idea that what we see isn't necessarily what we believe.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 16, 2012 11:56 AM (2b4yb)
Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at October 16, 2012 11:57 AM (X3lox)
Noooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 16, 2012 03:56 PM (sbV1u)
This morning. Killed a chicken.
Posted by: eastvalleyphx says fuck islam at October 16, 2012 11:57 AM (GRvW4)
Posted by: guy what just ate a second rate dinner in Amarillo at October 16, 2012 11:57 AM (3SvjA)
>>>I missed it?!?!?!? Ace is.....no longer....Master of His Domain????
It might have been that D plus eleventy poll that put Romney up by 4, that was the last straw.
Posted by: Roy at October 16, 2012 11:58 AM (VndSC)
Wow, I heard "Taps" in my head about 6 am. Must have been about the time Ace was polishing the bayonet. Freaky.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 16, 2012 11:58 AM (sbV1u)
Posted by: Hillary Clinton at October 16, 2012 11:59 AM (OiC7K)
Posted by: S. Weasel at October 16, 2012 11:59 AM (YOBrO)
I'm suspicious. Did Ace say specifically that he wasn't going to fap, or did he just say that he wasn't going to watch porn to fap? Because unless he's much older than I thought, or has something regular on the side, there is no way he went three + weeks.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 16, 2012 11:59 AM (2b4yb)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 16, 2012 11:59 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Jones in CO at October 16, 2012 11:59 AM (8sCoq)
Posted by: Vitalis at October 16, 2012 12:00 PM (v4+5w)
Doing homework, taking your responsibilities seriously and working hard to accomplish them... these are moral virtues, too.
At the risk of once again being that guy who always toots his horn for the "I told you so" moment, I kept saying this all along during the primaries...and I also pointed out that the reason these virtues were so important to us is that the REAL CONTRAST in the November election wasn't going to be "conservative" vs. "liberal." It was going to "competent" vs. "incompetent." And Romney is the living embodiment of hyper-competence, as we have all seen.
It's paying off.
Posted by: Jeff B. at October 16, 2012 12:00 PM (TP7eP)
If you had close to $1,000,000,000 for your reelection, wouldn't you spend a few thousand on Intrade?
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 16, 2012 12:00 PM (2b4yb)
My interpretation of his comments. Of course, I've been really, really wrong before.
Countless ex-girlfriends can confirm.
Posted by: eastvalleyphx says fuck islam at October 16, 2012 12:00 PM (GRvW4)
IMHO..... Romney was going to win even before the debate. The economy, the corruption, the Hellthcare Act, the dead ambassadors were the "shake". The debate probably widened the margin of victory a bit.
The polls are another thing entirely. The polling itself is changing, not the people being polled. We moving from "Im going to lie to you to your face" and moving to..."I cant be tooooo far off on this shit come election day".
Big Difference
Posted by: fixerupper at October 16, 2012 12:00 PM (C8hzL)
This is one of those "Rule 1 of AoSHQ" things, isn't it?
Posted by: Waterhouse at October 16, 2012 12:01 PM (POGCP)
Because there's not that much money in the Intrade market, and Obama's campaign can deliberately keep his numbers propped up.
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 16, 2012 12:01 PM (4+LTj)
I'm not sure it was Romney's great performance, or just that Romney came off as credible - and then some. Obam is the incumbent with no record to run on. The fundamentals were terrible for him. His only path to reelection was to paint Romney as unacceptable. Romney answered that challenge in a head to head format that bypassed the media. I don't think Romney needed a great performance, just a credible one. But that is beside the point.
Human nature also says that humans will not make a decision until they absolutely have to, and until that point, they will stick with the status quo. This is why Obama led throughout the summer. The fundamentals were already in place for an Obama loss, but why give Romney this huge support, if he may let you down or more likely before you even have a chance to look at him. Once America saw him, they decided he wasn't that bad.
The cascade was never going to start until that debate moment. Its starting now, and now all the momentum is with Romney. I don't see how Obama can stop it. Slow it, sure. But it will pick up speed again. Eventually Romney will have the votes, and the few remaining undecides will just go with the perceived winner.
The elections of 2000 and 2004 will be remembered as the aberrations where the country was truly undecided.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2012 12:01 PM (gmeXX)
Posted by: Waterhouse at October 16, 2012 04:01 PM (POGCP)
That's how I see...I ain't askin'.
Posted by: Tami at October 16, 2012 12:01 PM (X6akg)
Posted by: Cricket at October 16, 2012 12:01 PM (DrC22)
That hasn't happened for quite some time now. 1984 to be precise.
Got to get ready to go to work now. Hell of a way to make a living but there it is.
Posted by: GGE of the Moron Horde, NC Chapter at October 16, 2012 12:02 PM (yh0zB)
Posted by: Make Believe News of America at October 16, 2012 12:02 PM (/E3ql)
That includes me. Romney was so impressive in the debates, I finally was able to get over my butthurt from Perry's poor performances. Plus, Romney made some express 10th Amendment points, which is my main issue.
Posted by: wooga at October 16, 2012 12:02 PM (vjyZP)
Posted by: Evilpens at October 16, 2012 12:04 PM (ck76k)
Posted by: perdogg at October 16, 2012 03:57 PM (oSdsj)
The intrade percentage most closely correlates to the Ohio percentage. And I think that's about right. Whoever wins OH wins the election.
Posted by: lorien1973 at October 16, 2012 12:04 PM (mcWHD)
Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 16, 2012 12:05 PM (aHR5E)
Posted by: Waterhouse at October 16, 2012 04:01 PM (POGCP)
I can only speak for myself, but taking a load off (euphemistically) helps me focus.
Posted by: eastvalleyphx says fuck islam at October 16, 2012 12:05 PM (GRvW4)
Posted by: TD at October 16, 2012 12:05 PM (DQMcq)
Posted by: The Examiner was Locked and Loaded. Next? at October 16, 2012 12:05 PM (LpQbZ)
Posted by: panzernashorn at October 16, 2012 12:05 PM (BAnPT)
whenever obama blames the 'previous administration'
says 'let me be clear' or 'as I've said before'
says 'started 2 wars on a credit card' or 'most economists agree that...'
Posted by: Jones in CO at October 16, 2012 12:05 PM (8sCoq)
Posted by: Liberty Lover at October 16, 2012 12:06 PM (encrR)
One additional wrinkle, Ace. The concept of a "preference cascade" -- the close cousin to the "Emperor Has No Clothes" moment and the "pulling back the curtain on the Wizard of Oz" moment -- is not just a description of what happens when a narrative breaks down... it is itself a new narrative that provides a potent "story arc" for what can happen in a campaign. So, to the extent you've helped push the meme of the preference cascade, and make the idea of a preference cascade known to a broader audience, you've helped create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
In short, you've created a strong narrative about how weak narratives fall apart.
Good work! You devil, you!
Posted by: The Regular Guy at October 16, 2012 12:07 PM (qHCyt)
"At the risk of once again being that guy who always toots his horn for the "I told you so" moment, I kept saying this all along during the primaries..."
JeffB - let me acknowledge that I was not a Romney fan. And I am still worried about where he might be on policy - but first things first. And I have been impressed with him through the campaign. Though, I'm not sure Santorum would not be in the same position now if he were the nominee. There is no way to really know. Bottom line, it doesn't matter. If Mitt wins - he will be rightly recognized as the right candidate. His past experience is likely paying off right now.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2012 12:07 PM (gmeXX)
Posted by: ace at October 16, 2012 12:07 PM (LCRYB)
Posted by: BHO at October 16, 2012 12:07 PM (bBjHO)
Funny, I've heard Obama say "economists all agree" ...
Posted by: panzernashorn at October 16, 2012 12:08 PM (BAnPT)
Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 16, 2012 12:08 PM (aHR5E)
Posted by: steevy at October 16, 2012 12:08 PM (6o4Fb)
Posted by: ace at October 16, 2012 12:08 PM (LCRYB)
Posted by: toby928© for TB at October 16, 2012 12:08 PM (evdj2)
Posted by: Interested Party at October 16, 2012 12:09 PM (RE+1w)
Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 16, 2012 12:09 PM (feFL6)
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 16, 2012 12:09 PM (1oeZb)
Added wrinke to tonight's debate:
Debaters will not be allowed to comment on the foul stench emanating from the moderator.
Posted by: Candy Crowley is 1 Biscuit Away from 300 lbs at October 16, 2012 12:09 PM (W2qJe)
Posted by: Mitt Romney Zinger at October 16, 2012 12:09 PM (OFJpp)
Posted by: The Peasants at October 16, 2012 12:09 PM (dzCcw)
Posted by: steevy at October 16, 2012 12:10 PM (6o4Fb)
For months, Obama has been the nice guy .. hey, he's got your back. Ronmey is "EVIL" .. his running mate throws grandma off a cliff.
Then the debates, for many folks the first time they hear the guy actual using his own lips.
They think ... not so bad .. and I'm tired of being called a racist at work.
Posted by: Debbie Weaselwords Schultz at October 16, 2012 12:10 PM (e8kgV)
Posted by: Soona at October 16, 2012 12:10 PM (7Qom/)
Posted by: toby928© Weeping Perrykrishna at October 16, 2012 12:10 PM (evdj2)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 16, 2012 12:10 PM (8y9MW)
Posted by: The Examiner was Locked and Loaded. Next? at October 16, 2012 12:11 PM (LpQbZ)
Romney has won me over. The debate sealed it. But it was always ABO, anyway.
Posted by: eastvalleyphx says fuck islam at October 16, 2012 12:11 PM (GRvW4)
Posted by: Buck O'Fama at October 16, 2012 12:11 PM (BUyLU)
Posted by: maddogg at October 16, 2012 12:12 PM (OlN4e)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 16, 2012 12:12 PM (8y9MW)
Posted by: USA at October 16, 2012 12:12 PM (RIg+t)
My Galt story.
Four years ago I made a concious decision not to add one extra penny to the newely elected communist economy that I didn't need to. That meant shedding some high cost/low profit customers, and not taking on new customers. Stopping all advertising or drumming up of business.
When I decided this I didn't think I'd make it 3 years, let alone 4 years. Wasn't sure if it was possible. Four years on coast is a long time. For almost four years I've been simply cutting overhead, and had a lot of uneeded overhead built up. First was getting rid of the rented office and working out of my home. Next was configuring internal costs to be less per month. Next was selling my house at break even (the only way it would sell) and riding the market down in a rental. Next was getting rid of two cars and getting a paid off piece of junk.
Now 4 years later, with income of 1/4th of what it was 4 years ago I'm ready to bust out of the gate and get busy again.
Posted by: Up, up with people at October 16, 2012 12:12 PM (kzFo5)
69
Added wrinke to tonight's debate:
Debaters will not be allowed to comment on the foulstench emanating from the moderator.
________________
Just as long as the audience can shout to Romney: "FINISH HIM"
Posted by: meh at October 16, 2012 12:12 PM (W2qJe)
/Those big ears wouldn't be covering up an implanted prompter tonight, heh
Posted by: panzernashorn at October 16, 2012 12:13 PM (BAnPT)
59....Reagan, I'm sure, was better in some ways. I doubt he was this masterful in policy details and facts, though.
Posted by: ace at October 16, 2012 04:07 PM (LCRYB)
-----------
Things were simpler then, Ace.
It was the Cold War, we had a clearly defined enemy...and there weren't as many layers to everything.
Reagan was pretty well versed, on the policy details...of the day.
But he also had something else. Charisma.
Posted by: wheatie at October 16, 2012 12:13 PM (l5RhJ)
I know so many die hard democrats who will never - ever vote for the person and people who now occupy the White House.
Ace is right. People needed an event to shake them to their senses and can now use Preezy Zero's performance as validation and permission NOT to vote for Preezy Zero again.
Posted by: Deli LLama at October 16, 2012 12:13 PM (lGu1O)
Easy there Mrs. Nation.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 16, 2012 12:13 PM (2b4yb)
JeffB - As another follow-up, my critique of Romney during the primaries was that it will not simply be enough to run as "Not Obama." You must give a reason to vote for you and not against the other guy. This was the problem with Kerry - of course Bush could credibly make the case on his record.
With the selection of Romney and some other things that have taken place. I feel I can now vote for Romney and not simply against Obama. Romney made the case for himself, not simply against Obama - that was the easy part.
Kudos to Romney, I hope he keeps it up. I'm hoping for more than just a win on Nov. 7 - I'd like to see a rout. I want to pick up some blue states to make this a complete repudiation of Obama and the Democrat insurgency that started in 2006.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2012 12:13 PM (gmeXX)
Posted by: Tari at October 16, 2012 12:14 PM (+Z6FM)
Posted by: Politico at October 16, 2012 12:14 PM (7vSU0)
Posted by: spongeworthy at October 16, 2012 12:15 PM (r5w1L)
Posted by: Will Never Vote For a dhimmocrat at October 16, 2012 03:51 PM (kXoT0)
Candy better not sit sill in that get-up for long because she may find herself carved up, sitting on a porch, with a candle in her gut.
Posted by: Pointy Elbow Cheerleader at October 16, 2012 12:15 PM (kzp9t)
Ideas are not promulgated by reason, but rather caught by contagion.
Dr Johnson said that, or something similar.
Posted by: toby928© for TB at October 16, 2012 04:08 PM (evdj2)
Doc Johnson is right!
Posted by: Howard Johnson at October 16, 2012 12:15 PM (BAS5M)
87Obama can't perform well without TOTUS.
/Those big ears wouldn't be covering up an implanted prompter tonight, heh
___________________
The notion I that would have an audio aid is ..... ahhh ..... as I've always said ....uhhhh
Posted by: Thin Skinned Teleprompter Reader at October 16, 2012 12:15 PM (W2qJe)
Posted by: Sgt. Fury at October 16, 2012 12:15 PM (DlaTn)
--
Funny, that's not what Reagan said when his Iran-Nicaraguan scandal broke.
He did, however, take full responsibility. Unlike Obama numbnuts and Shrillery.
Posted by: panzernashorn at October 16, 2012 12:16 PM (BAnPT)
**
This!
I agree! Hard work! And resposibility. Go. A long. Way!
Itworkedforme.
Posted by: Barack Obrotha at October 16, 2012 12:16 PM (eavT+)
Looks like she's trying to channel the other-worldly bartender wisdom of Guinan.
Posted by: HeatherRadish, Crankypants at October 16, 2012 12:16 PM (/kI1Q)
Posted by: Smirnoff Habsburg at October 16, 2012 12:16 PM (r2PLg)
Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at October 16, 2012 12:17 PM (X3lox)
http://preview.tinyurl.com/96rolcz
“For days and days, coverage of the Malala case has shown clearly that the Pakistani and international media are biased,” says a Pakistani Taliban commander in South Waziristan. “The Taliban cannot tolerate biased media.” The commander, who calls himself Jihad Yar, argues that death threats against the press are justified: he says “99 percent” of the reporters on the story are only using the shooting as an excuse to attack the Taliban.
Posted by: WalrusRex at October 16, 2012 12:18 PM (Hx5uv)
Posted by: Politico at October 16, 2012 04:14 PM (7vSU0)
Not if you're 30 days into No Fap October, I suppose...
Posted by: Zombie Johnny Cash at October 16, 2012 12:18 PM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Ed Gibbon at October 16, 2012 12:18 PM (4eNxd)
Posted by: Preezy Uneezy at October 16, 2012 12:18 PM (W2qJe)
Posted by: Honey Badger at October 16, 2012 12:18 PM (GvYeG)
Posted by: rickb223 at October 16, 2012 12:19 PM (GFM2b)
All her Yellow Dog friends agree. (They don't think the "racist" thing about not voting for the "Mocha Jesus" matters anymore). Oh yeah, they think he's a creepy little shit, too.
Posted by: tubal at October 16, 2012 12:19 PM (BoE3Z)
Drinking game rule:
If Obama does that "scratch his cheek with his middle finger" giving Romney the bird - chug the bottle and buy a new T.V.
(As you will have put your foot through the one you currently have...)
Posted by: Warthog at October 16, 2012 12:19 PM (WDySP)
Posted by: steevy at October 16, 2012 12:20 PM (6o4Fb)
========
What's this gibberish? You global warming deniers know nothing of science.
Posted by: The Sciencey Left at October 16, 2012 12:20 PM (imtbm)
Gallup says :::
Romney 50% Obama 46% Likely voters
Posted by: Ed Gibbon at October 16, 2012 04:18 PM (4eNxd)
That biased rethuglikkkan poll is only D+15. Obama in a landslide, baby!
Posted by: greggyandpokey at October 16, 2012 12:20 PM (ggRof)
During the primaries I became a staunch ABO person, especially after Perry dropped out. Mitt has become a pleasant surprise and I think the only reason for that is the conservative base kept him from going all RINO.
When he wins, we must keep that pressure on. If that can happen, Mitt will turn out okay, I believe.
Posted by: Soona at October 16, 2012 12:21 PM (7Qom/)
Posted by: Honey Badger at October 16, 2012 04:18 PM (GvYeG)
--
They can't because it would put Romney in the electoral vote lead.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 16, 2012 12:21 PM (1oeZb)
Posted by: Cricket at October 16, 2012 12:21 PM (DrC22)
-----
Sound like "Jihad Yar" is Arabic for "Axle Rod".
That or Stephine Cutter.
Posted by: fixerupper at October 16, 2012 12:21 PM (C8hzL)
Posted by: spongeworthy at October 16, 2012 12:22 PM (r5w1L)
Posted by: Ed Gibbon at October 16, 2012 12:22 PM (4eNxd)
"Reagan, I'm sure, was better in some ways. I doubt he was this masterful in policy details and facts, though"
No politician should ever be trusted. You support your guy and you try to get him elected, but you then must stay on top of them to not drift too far the other way. Reagan was better on ideology than Romney. Romney may have policy details and facts - so did Clinton. Ideology matters. Competance, experience, and wonkiness are nice, but they will not matter if your ideology is bad.
Let's get Romney over the finish line, but then it is up to us to make sure he governs in the best possible way.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2012 12:22 PM (gmeXX)
Also...let's not forget, that a lot of people are affraid to speak out against a thug like Barky.
Even people on the left.
When/if it becomes apparent that he's going to lose...I'm hoping that it won't be just a 'preference cascade', but a flood.
Like a dam breaking.
Posted by: wheatie at October 16, 2012 12:23 PM (l5RhJ)
Doing homework, taking your responsibilities seriously and working hard to accomplish them... these are moral virtues, too.
Yeah, well that may work when you're out of whiskey, but hey, I'm fully stocked.
Posted by: HtP at October 16, 2012 12:23 PM (jx2j9)
Posted by: Smirnoff Habsburg at October 16, 2012 12:24 PM (r2PLg)
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2012 04:22 PM (gmeXX)
There's plenty of time to turn on Romney like a pack of wild dogs. He needs to get elected first. Let's focus.
Posted by: joncelli at October 16, 2012 12:24 PM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Truman North at October 16, 2012 12:25 PM (I2LwF)
Posted by: Smirnoff Habsburg at October 16, 2012 12:26 PM (r2PLg)
Posted by: steevy at October 16, 2012 12:26 PM (6o4Fb)
Posted by: The Examiner was Locked and Loaded. Next? at October 16, 2012 12:26 PM (LpQbZ)
Posted by: joncelli at October 16, 2012 04:24 PM (RD7QR)
Well, sure.
Posted by: tubal at October 16, 2012 12:26 PM (BoE3Z)
"There's plenty of time to turn on Romney like a pack of wild dogs. He needs to get elected first. Let's focus."
Isn't that what I said.
Posted by: SH at October 16, 2012 12:26 PM (gmeXX)
"Like shaking a beaker of supersaturated salts will suddenly cause a precipitate to fall. But you need that shake. Otherwise, the liquid remains as it was."
Mmmmmmmm....that sounds so...sciency.
Posted by: Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus at October 16, 2012 12:26 PM (+inic)
Posted by: Rich at October 16, 2012 12:27 PM (pnHKr)
Posted by: Golan Globus at October 16, 2012 12:27 PM (7vSU0)
That's why I was so concerned about how pollsters were using these ridiculous models. If you say "Obama is trouncing Romney" enough times with polls, swing voters will start buying it and be naturally inclined to back the winner. Now however, the MSM has painted itself in a corner because even their stacked polls show Romney winning comfortably.
I know it sounds stupid, but when people think something is a done deal, they don't like to upset the apple cart and people don't like backing losers. That's why if a sports team sucks they can't sell tickets but if they have a winning season, they sell out.
The debate was permission to answer differently, that's why even if Obama "wins" this next debate, it's not going to change the race like the last debate did.
Posted by: McAdams at October 16, 2012 12:27 PM (l7pxp)
---
It took Reagan a few months wait to go figure before he could reach "the complete story" about the Iran-Contra Affair. "I take full responsibility. I am still accountable. I'm still the one who must answer to the American People. This happened on my watch."
http://tinyurl.com/8w7lgje
see 3:30 Reagan admission that his initial claim was false.
Former CIA Director then VP GHWBush's influential role was never publicized.
Posted by: panzernashorn at October 16, 2012 12:27 PM (BAnPT)
Like a dam breaking.
Posted by: wheatie at October 16, 2012 04:23 PM (l5RhJ)
------------------------------------------------
As I said yesterday: I don't want a landslide, I want a reckoning.
Posted by: Soona at October 16, 2012 12:27 PM (7Qom/)
I hate to say it, but no.
For two reasons. First, because the Left has successfully created the dual memes of "everyone does it," and "it's just political." LIVs hear that and have an almost Pavlovian response of going to sleep.
Second, because the Media then chose to embargo such stories as much as they could. By the combination of not covering the stories, and then being able to do one or two stories cast as "everyone does it" and "it's just political," they were able to keep LIVs from thinking about the implications of what was being reported.
Now, however, they had someone essentially call Obama on the carpet, and hit them between the eyes with "hey, wake up, this guy is a scoamf!"
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 16, 2012 12:27 PM (8y9MW)
Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at October 16, 2012 12:28 PM (X3lox)
It's not worth it. You'll kill yourself with the stress and be universally reviled.
Get knocked up and drop out of school. Easy peezy.
Posted by: HeatherRadish is one FAA paperwork meeting away from a psychotic break. at October 16, 2012 12:28 PM (/kI1Q)
Barry will not help himself, so it will be over.
The plants will try, as will Pork Lady, but you can only talk about vaginas so long before the stupid game is up.
The vagina voters already have decided, so fuck them. The Catholic vote and the insults to them are more important to us.
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 16, 2012 12:28 PM (wR+pz)
Posted by: tubal at October 16, 2012 04:19 PM (BoE3Z)
***
That's the very first vibe I got from him...what a fuckin creep. There are a few stronger creep vibes and they of course belong to Alan Grayson, Harry Reed and Mayor Bloomburg.
Posted by: dananjcon at October 16, 2012 12:28 PM (eavT+)
Posted by: Golan Globus at October 16, 2012 12:28 PM (7vSU0)
I think it was Ace who said that Romney has spent his whole career as a businessman putting together deals, and then going into a meeting and selling the deal.
You know, memorize your pitch and then pitch it.
Romney went to an editorial meeting earlier in the year with the Chicago Tribune, and at the end of the meeting, he asked them for their business. He even joked about it, saying, that as a businessman after you make your presentation you ask for the business. The editorial board was flummoxed, and the tape of that part of the meeting was broadcast.
Posted by: Boots at October 16, 2012 12:28 PM (neKzn)
Yes, but how would you keep him from rubbing himself all over the coeds?
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 16, 2012 12:28 PM (2b4yb)
The NYT has already written their Obama Rebounds in Second Debate story.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ca55d8w
It will be interesting to see how predictive of tomorrow's NYT story this is.
Posted by: WalrusRex at October 16, 2012 12:29 PM (Hx5uv)
133....So there was that headline Romney's foreign policy is going to be more like Reagan's.
Like Reagan...Romney loves this country, and wants what's best for it.
That's the basic similarity.
Barky hates this country...everything he has done, stems from this hatred of us.
Posted by: wheatie at October 16, 2012 12:29 PM (l5RhJ)
Ghey marriage? Every fucking newspaper in the state opposed NC's ban.
It won by 2-1. Newspapers, meh.
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 16, 2012 12:29 PM (wR+pz)
Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 16, 2012 12:30 PM (9+ccr)
Posted by: Rich at October 16, 2012 04:27 PM (pnHKr)
*
Eh...you should receive your ballot on or about Nov. 8.
Posted by: Ohion Election Comitee at October 16, 2012 12:30 PM (eavT+)
Posted by: Truman North at October 16, 2012 12:30 PM (I2LwF)
I really think they will do anything. Anything at all for this man.
Posted by: flashbazzbo, s.e. at October 16, 2012 12:31 PM (i0rVe)
Posted by: Golan Globus at October 16, 2012 12:31 PM (7vSU0)
Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at October 16, 2012 04:17 PM (X3lox)
You would be amazed at how uninformed and in the dark people are. There are people who think Barky hasn't signed one single executive order. Confront people with facts and they will say they "but I watch NBC!" Give more facts and they throw accusations of "right wing conspiracy" rantings and think the actual truth is so outrageous, it must be false.
There is much work left to do. Talk, talk, talk, all the time to anyone, anywhere. Razzle dazzle with facts. Minds that were once closed (those with mentality who think Biden's lies and rudeness was awesome - are forever lost) became more open after Preezy Zero exposed himself in 1st debate.
Posted by: Deli LLama at October 16, 2012 12:32 PM (lGu1O)
Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at October 16, 2012 12:32 PM (X3lox)
Posted by: Barry Obama at October 16, 2012 12:32 PM (f9c2L)
Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 16, 2012 12:32 PM (feFL6)
I really think he needed the bruising primary because it hashed and re-hashed all the ground that Obama is trying to plow into again.
Plus it got him used to him vs. 2 or more at a time--like tonight will be.
Posted by: RoyalOil at October 16, 2012 12:32 PM (imtbm)
I can't wait to see Obama bopping around the stage tonight, doing his comedy routine and stuttering like popcorn right before he tells one of his cute witticisms that his supporters laugh at so they won't let him in on the knowledge that he's the joke. Of course without his totus, he runs the risk of being an even bigger joke.
Posted by: HtP at October 16, 2012 12:33 PM (jx2j9)
And to see the TFG's foreign policy bleed and beg for mercy.
And to see the SCoaMF hang his head in shame like never before.
I have high hopes.
Posted by: sTevo at October 16, 2012 12:33 PM (rgubY)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 16, 2012 12:33 PM (8y9MW)
What I don't trust are HER questions.
The burden is on Barry, just remember that. He is the underdog this week.
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 16, 2012 12:34 PM (wR+pz)
Posted by: dananjcon at October 16, 2012 04:28 PM (eavT+)
--------------------------------------------
Hey! Don't forget me.....heh heh heh heh *slobber* hehehehe.
Posted by: Sheriff Joe at October 16, 2012 12:34 PM (7Qom/)
Posted by: Golan Globus at October 16, 2012 12:34 PM (7vSU0)
I really think they will do anything. Anything at all for this man.
Posted by: flashbazzbo, s.e. at October 16, 2012 04:31 PM (i0rVe)
They have a proprietary interest in him, since they essentially created him and gave him free advertising.
Posted by: joncelli at October 16, 2012 12:35 PM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 16, 2012 12:35 PM (9+ccr)
Posted by: Honey Badger at October 16, 2012 12:35 PM (GvYeG)
Posted by: Truman North at October 16, 2012 12:35 PM (I2LwF)
Posted by: Deli LLama
........
That's where the re-education camps come in...
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at October 16, 2012 12:35 PM (f9c2L)
Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 16, 2012 12:36 PM (feFL6)
Posted by: Maximus Preferencus Cascadius at October 16, 2012 12:36 PM (Gt8ei)
Posted by: Havedash at October 16, 2012 12:37 PM (ToMJU)
The pollsters are like the guy on the inside of the door, and the truth is the guy on the other side. The door is open and both guys are pushing in opposite directions. The guy on the inside is pushing mightily, but at some point he realizes he can't win. At that moment, he immediately stops pushing and yanks his hands off the door lest they get caught in the jam as the door slams shut.
Posted by: angler at October 16, 2012 12:37 PM (SwjAj)
150....If you took polls in Soviet Russia you would have found many of the same sorts of "opinions" publicly expressed to pollsters.
Yeah, PrimOrd²....because the intimidation factor was so complete, the Comm-Party had a 'watcher' installed, on every street.
People were afraid to speak out.
Barky's got the equivalent of that now.
I was totally creeped out, when I saw that thing about how they had developed that 'convenient' little map-app...showing where people lived, and what their political affiliation was.
Posted by: wheatie at October 16, 2012 12:37 PM (l5RhJ)
Posted by: MaxMBJ at October 16, 2012 12:37 PM (lOlyY)
Posted by: Miss80sBaby at October 16, 2012 12:37 PM (YjDyJ)
You know, when I was with my fellow injuin, Liz, we were talking about those people that think they built their businesses.
What a joke. Don't you know there is not a chance I am going to bring this up, but Liz insisted as did my "small illegal donors from the UK".
So you people gots to understand, without us you be nothing.
Shout out to Lazy-J or some damn rap guy and his home boys. Trayvon, we still miss you.
Posted by: Injuin Blackfoot Barry, The One Who Eats Dogs at October 16, 2012 12:38 PM (wR+pz)
Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 16, 2012 12:39 PM (cgxNI)
=============
I did.
It was the JEF's last chance at a knockout blow.
Think about where we'd be if Obama had won the debate. This race would be over and Obama would have his feet up in the Oval Office singing his version of Sonny and Cher--"You got me, babe."
Posted by: RoyalOil at October 16, 2012 12:40 PM (imtbm)
Posted by: garrett at October 16, 2012 12:40 PM (tqqhi)
Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at October 16, 2012 12:40 PM (X3lox)
Posted by: steevy at October 16, 2012 12:40 PM (6o4Fb)
Posted by: Adam at October 16, 2012 12:40 PM (OFJpp)
Posted by: MaxMBJ at October 16, 2012 12:41 PM (lOlyY)
# 165:
I really think they, (The MSM), will do anything. Anything at all for this man.
-cough- Candy Crowley -cough-
She's already said she has no intention of abiding by the agreement signed by the candidates. It should prove to be a fun night.....watching her trying to pretend to fairly moderate the debate, while throwing marshmallow-soft soft balls at Obama, and trying for 90 minutes to be his missing teleprompter....carefully rewording questions, and even rewording his answers to make them sound better. I'd be willing to bet that some of her statements tonight will be attributed to Obama as his own answers.
Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 16, 2012 12:41 PM (L7hol)
Oh, so not only did he order the Coverup, he's responsible for the murder in the first place.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 16, 2012 12:42 PM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Red Shirt at October 16, 2012 12:42 PM (FIDMq)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 16, 2012 04:42 PM (8y9MW)
Only if there's something in it for him.
Posted by: HtP at October 16, 2012 12:43 PM (jx2j9)
I was fortunate enough to play more golf than ever this year. I almost played as often as Preznit Putt Putt.
I found that the more my good friend would taunt and challenge me, the better I got. My handicap went down 5 strokes this year.
TFG has not had enough challenges and it shows.
I applaud the MSM for protecting him. If you really think about it, they have done us all a favor.
Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 16, 2012 12:44 PM (cgxNI)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 16, 2012 12:44 PM (i0vBR)
Posted by: The Chap with the App at October 16, 2012 12:45 PM (fscec)
You know how fat people say that it's not fair...that people don't like them, because they're fat?
Well....ahem....it's true.
What.
It *is* true.
So, apply that to the debate tonight...
We're going to see a big Fat Chick, showing preferrence toward Barky.
And not being fair to Romney.
I hope it backfires.
Posted by: wheatie at October 16, 2012 12:45 PM (l5RhJ)
Posted by: Red Shirt at October 16, 2012 04:42 PM (FIDMq)
Yeah the 1% get the fancy liveblog while the 99% of the morons are beholden to pixy's comment thingy hamsters. Occupy Live Blogging!!!!!
Posted by: Pointy Elbow Cheerleader at October 16, 2012 12:46 PM (kzp9t)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 16, 2012 12:46 PM (i0vBR)
Posted by: Debbie Weaselwords Schultz at October 16, 2012 12:46 PM (e8kgV)
Psych 1, Psych 2
What do you know?
All your life is Channel 13
Sesame Street
What does it mean?
Pressure
Posted by: Billy Joel at October 16, 2012 12:48 PM (e8kgV)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 16, 2012 04:46 PM (i0vBR)
My love of Billy Joel starts and stops with Glass Houses.
Posted by: garrett at October 16, 2012 12:49 PM (tqqhi)
Posted by: Jay in Ames at October 16, 2012 12:50 PM (i2Lsf)
We're going to see a big Fat Chick, showing preferrence toward Barky.
And not being fair to Romney.
I hope it backfires.
Posted by: wheatie at October 16, 2012 04:45 PM (l5RhJ)
-------------------------------------------------
I think the majority of Americans are tuned in like I've never seen before. They'll be looking for bullshit like this. If CC tries this, it will backfire, not only on her but her little SCOAMT too.
Posted by: Soona at October 16, 2012 12:51 PM (7Qom/)
They will but it only makes them look cheap and pathetic.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 16, 2012 12:52 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. A righteous dude. at October 16, 2012 12:55 PM (VtjlW)
Yes, but when has that ever stopped them, or resulted in consequences for them?
Posted by: angler at October 16, 2012 12:55 PM (SwjAj)
They will but it only makes them look cheap and pathetic.
I hope you're right, but I look at the numbers TFG has been able to sustain all summer long with the history of his first term, and I realize the only reason he has done so well is that info which has never gotten out to the numbers that count. I don't mean us and I don't mean them. I mean the 10% or so that were going to decide this.
They don't watch Fox. They don't read the wall Street Journal. They barely watch CNN, ferchrissakes.
Posted by: flashbazzbo, s.e. at October 16, 2012 12:58 PM (i0rVe)
Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore
I've thought about this as well. A Juan McLame 4 years never excited me and most likely would have ushered in a Clinton or the SCOAMF anyway. This was a painful but maybe a necessary experience to show Americans the ugly and failing side of socialist policies.
Posted by: Cheri at October 16, 2012 12:58 PM (G+Wff)
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. A righteous dude. at October 16, 2012 04:55 PM (VtjlW)
I never could wade through the book. Tell what I'm going to do if Mocha Jesus pulls a coup (the only way he's in office after the election dontcha know) - pull all my chips off the table. And I have some chips. Is that a Galt thing, Alex?
Posted by: tubal at October 16, 2012 12:58 PM (BoE3Z)
Posted by: Cheri at October 16, 2012 01:02 PM (G+Wff)
I had a childhood buddy express this very thing not to long ago.
My reply: Homework was for fags.
Childhood buddy: Yeah, but this is coming from a guy who got kicked out of two Ivy League schools.
My reply: Yeah, but I was only enrolled in one of them.
Posted by: Fritz at October 16, 2012 01:03 PM (vm7ot)
Posted by: toby928© Person of Pallor at October 16, 2012 01:07 PM (evdj2)
Posted by: Honey Badger at October 16, 2012 01:10 PM (GvYeG)
Posted by: WaitingForMartel at October 16, 2012 01:13 PM (BYSrJ)
To what? A whine-off?
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ trapped at the office with no beer at October 16, 2012 01:13 PM (/kI1Q)
He faced a real opponent at the debate, and folks found out, that Obama guy, he got nothin'.
Fingers crossed, tonight will be even more brutal to Bams cuz he still got nothin'.
Posted by: PJ at October 16, 2012 01:16 PM (DQHjw)
Romney's foreign policy is based on his imagined Mormon-Israeli birthright (member of the tribe of Joseph/Ephraim via adoption dogma) and George W. Bush's nation building gone more extreme. Romney's promises to lower the tax load on middle America and to secure our economy won't happen given the massive expenses required to fight the ill fated Romney wars he'll instigate with Syria (against counsel), and subsequent global wars against Iran's allies China and Russia. Shock and Awe, it's as if our national debt hasn't seen anything, yet. It's one thing to fight "spreading the wealth" of socialism at home; but unless you are the 1% there is no merit in office to deny lower taxes at home in order to spread the wealth into the pockets of globalist corporate monopolies nation building abroad with no tax payer relief.
Romney's leadership might lower the degree of complete corruption already endemic in our government. But as he says, hope is not a strategy.
Congressional Republicans won't spend less than Democrats; it's against the politician's bipartisan religious common values. Legislated laws apply to us, but not to politicians themselves. Luke 11:46,52 Jesus replied, "And you experts in the law, woe to you, because you load people down with burdens they can hardly carry, and you yourselves will not lift one finger to help them. Woe to you experts in the law, because you have taken away the key to knowledge. You yourselves have not entered, and you have hindered those who were entering."
Regarding Big Guv, it was Romney's model GWB administration with Republican Majority Congress that grew federal government more than ever, and wiped away the Constitution with the authoritarian Patriot Act and DHS. Romney gives lip service to the Constitution for votes and sentimental value. But with most Republican neoconservatives, he's supporting 100% the growth of the Patriot Act promoting more powerful authority, never enough, never checked.
Posted by: panzernashorn at October 16, 2012 01:18 PM (BAnPT)
Posted by: Ian S. at October 16, 2012 01:19 PM (B/VB5)
#223:
OT: But the story in the sidebar re: the 14 year old shot in the head.....it was a girl not a boy. Actually, it was a 14 year old girl and her 2 girlfriends that were shot by the Taliban on their way home from school.
And to think Obama is, (or was), negotiating with these knuckle dragging neanderthals. We should have nuked these bastards when we had the chance.
Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 16, 2012 01:19 PM (L7hol)
Posted by: sherlock at October 16, 2012 01:19 PM (+mHte)
Posted by: Ed Gibbon at October 16, 2012 01:21 PM (4eNxd)
Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at October 16, 2012 01:38 PM (X3lox)
Once the Administration's spokespeople started sounding like something rolled out by Krushev in his prime, shoe-banging days, ...well, a whole lot of people became primed to snap toward Romney if he sounded the least bit Presidential in that first debate.
On another note: I used to have no trouble searching for Ace's first posts about "Preference Cascades." Google is starting to not find shit like it used to. I just about have to threaten the damn thing to make it work anymore. "Verbatim" helps, a little. But the removal of the plus sign and doing a better job on terms within double quotes has really turned it into the worst version of Alta Vista since Yahoo.
Posted by: K~Bob at October 16, 2012 01:51 PM (xXJJn)
Posted by: #OccupyResoluteDesk at October 16, 2012 02:24 PM (7QU6R)
Your talk of supersaturated salts and precipitate scares and frightens me.
Posted by: Unfrozen Caveman Chemist at October 16, 2012 03:07 PM (eHIJJ)
I am the Daisy Ad of the Presidential Debate circuit.
Posted by: Mitt Romney at October 16, 2012 03:14 PM (eHIJJ)
Scary.
Posted by: PJ at October 16, 2012 03:52 PM (DQHjw)
Posted by: the other coyote at October 16, 2012 04:49 PM (MhiBC)
Posted by: Gerry at October 17, 2012 07:11 PM (LGVKI)
Posted by: Gerry at October 17, 2012 07:12 PM (LGVKI)
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Posted by: Dirks Strewn at October 16, 2012 11:51 AM (Rrc6j)