March 09, 2012
— CAC Polling numbers eight months ahead of election day rarely tell you the whole story.
Indeed, they will tell you conflicting stories as the state of American politics is fluid and always vulnerable to the unexpected.
Sometimes, the numbers turn downright schizophrenic.
Take, for example, Rasmussen.
I have a love-hate-hate-love-straight razor relationship with Rasmussen (and PPP, Marist, Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, Zogby, Ipsos, PPIC, WNC, and every other company out there).
If you react to polling numbers as I do, like a child with attention deficit disorder, each new release is yet another big shiny thing. When the polls diverge, the usual response is confusion. When every poll contradicts the other, you may react like that guy who challenged Michael Ironside to a goofy faces contest in Scanners.
Sometimes, a polling firm will warp from a news source into your homless cousin who talks to the cats that aren't there. Take today's three releases, and tell me in 10 words or less what the hell are we looking at:
ELECTION 2012: THE CORE FOUR STATES: Obama leads Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)[beating Romney46-42].
President Obama's Approval Rating: 46/53, with 44% Strongly Disapproving.
President Obama trails Mitt Romney nationally by 2, 47-45, and leads Rick Santorum by 3, 47-44.
All released by the same firm within an hour of each other.
Now you see why I haven't done maps or polling threads in a while.
Posted by: CAC at
01:50 PM
| Comments (26)
Post contains 259 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: In before the troll at March 09, 2012 01:55 PM (KZuD1)
Posted by: Christina Hendricks' Mighty Jugs is now Andrew Breitbart's New Residence at March 09, 2012 01:55 PM (lSZoo)
Posted by: Gerg at March 09, 2012 01:59 PM (KI/Ch)
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at March 09, 2012 02:01 PM (bjRNS)
It kills me to even type that.
Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 09, 2012 02:01 PM (UOM48)
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at March 09, 2012 06:01 PM (bjRNS)
The only way that all three can be equally true is if somehow Romney is kicking Obama's ass in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine.Yet hes...losing in 4 states to the right of all of those (which by the way puts you at 271-267 electoral votes)
OR the 6% that "want someone else" are the right-leaning R's and Indies disastisfied with Romney but not wanting Obama. Then, the 4 states swing from 46-42 O over R to 48-46 R over O.
Again, I have my doubts.
Posted by: CAC at March 09, 2012 02:04 PM (Hs/Gi)
Posted by: Mountainmonkey at March 09, 2012 02:05 PM (uXdJq)
Posted by: steevy at March 09, 2012 02:10 PM (7W3wI)
*sigh* ....Well, it's looking like we're going to have Mr. Inevitable for our nominee.
We need to start working on how to combat all that stuff that is going to be thrown at Romney, once it is official.... So, I will make a stab at it....
The Omg-he's-a-millionaire-1%er!-stuff. --- "So what? He has his own money, and won't be stealing it from the public purse." ....Or, "Unlike Obama, Romney wants you to be able to have money too".
The 'crazy Mormon cultist' stuff. --- "The Mormon religion was made-in-the-USA. It's roots are here. At least we don't have to worry about his allegiance to any foreign country".
That's all I got right now. ....I will work more on it.
And yeah, CAC....the world will go round a couple hundred times between now and November. ....So while these polls are momentarily interesting, there is no telling what will happen to affect them, between now and then.
Posted by: wheatie at March 09, 2012 02:23 PM (dauG/)
It's March. Election's in November. Useless pollfapping for pollfapping's sake.
or
Most people polled have no clue what's for dinner tonight.
Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at March 09, 2012 02:26 PM (BvTwT)
Posted by: I believe the lies I tell myself at March 09, 2012 02:37 PM (rz0yi)
Posted by: tasker at March 09, 2012 02:41 PM (XsnBd)
Posted by: tasker at March 09, 2012 02:44 PM (XsnBd)
It's not who the GOP produces, it's who Obama has been seen to be.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at March 09, 2012 02:46 PM (eHIJJ)
Posted by: Warden at March 09, 2012 02:54 PM (HzhBE)
Posted by: Greg at March 09, 2012 04:05 PM (J3Ovp)
They are all worthless.
Nobody wants to admit they will vote for Romney. So they lie.. kinda.. it is wishful thinking that some white knight will ride out and save their day. Morons.
And the libtards who won't even bother voting say they will vote for Obambi.
But that's the way it is.. and it ain't gonna change until the convention.
My prediction? Romney wins electoral votes and Obama wins popular. The libtards don't take this one sitting down and fucking riot. but then, I do love science fiction and stories of a dystopian near future with city folks pitted against rural ones. Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war! Or, maybe I am just getting bored in my old age.
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 09, 2012 05:43 PM (UTq/I)
It kills me to even type that.
Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 09, 2012 06:01 PM (UOM4
I'll die with you dear. But then, Andrew lives....
at least until the 1st Tuesday of November.
And he will.
Posted by: eureka! at March 09, 2012 08:49 PM (2IGbS)
Posted by: Chester White at March 10, 2012 04:36 AM (F3f0k)
Posted by: CAC at March 10, 2012 09:43 AM (W0gE7)
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Posted by: dudeinsantacruz at March 09, 2012 01:53 PM (+WPzY)