October 05, 2012

Why That 7.8% Unemployment Figure Is Raising Eyebrows
— Ace

Ed notes there are two employment surveys each month: One of businesses (in which 410,000 businesses report) and a large phone survey of households (in which 60,000 homes are called).

The latter survey is much more volatile than the first. It tends to have lots of noise in it, and big swings. But even so, this big spike is notable for being bigger than recent swings (see chart at bottom).

It's this last survey that informs the actual unemployment figure. The first number, the payroll survey, tells us the net job creation in a month.

Now, according to the household survey, 873,000 jobs were created last month. Very close to one million jobs. That's not unprecedented; it happened last in 1983.

Only thing is, when that happened in 1983, that was in the first blast of the Reagan boom, and the country's Gross Domestic Product was growing at a blistering 9.3% rate.

Current rate of GDP growth? Something like 1.3%.

Jumps almost as big as this one (but not quite) have happened when the GDP growth rate was 5% or so.

But at the 1.3% level? At this level of economic growth -- not even enough to keep up with population growth-- what exactly would be driving the employment train?

If anyone's too young too know, let me explain to you what a 1983 economy feels like: It feels like the movie Wall Street. As Adam Carolla says, "pre-AIDS, mid-coke." Poppy music on the Blaupunkt. People buy plastic watches to wear on their ankles and in their hair. The world is your Cinnabon's.

It's the kind of economy where you sort of have some leverage with your boss because the economy's so hot that labor is a seller's, not buyer's market.

Not just for good jobs. For crap jobs too. A sizzling economy makes a lot of crap jobs. So you can quit your job and have a pretty good idea you'll have a new one in a couple of weeks.

Is that the way the third quarter of 2012 feels to people?

So. You can buy that this number is real, and we all just missed the signs of a 9.3% growth spurt, or you can wonder if maybe this isn't just an "implausible statistical quirk," as one analyst calls it. Every poll -- and that's what the household survey is, a big poll -- is subject for the occasional outside-the-MoE error.

You don't even have to think Obama cooked the books (though Jay Cost reminds that that does happen) to look at the number with suspicion.

The economy simply did not add 873,000 jobs last month. It simply did not. The payroll survey says it added a mere 114,000.

There is absolutely no confirmatory data suggesting that the 873,000 number is right and the 114,000 number is wrong. As one guy asked on Twitter -- did payroll taxes jump up past month?

It's either a lucky outlier for Obama -- or luck had nothing to do with it -- but it doesn't represent current economic conditions.

If Obama and Solis really believed the economy grew 873,000 jobs, why aren't they celebrating that? Why aren't they bragging about it? Why aren't they doubting the 114,000 figure, and noting the 700,000 in undercounted jobs they should be getting credit for?

Answer: Because they know it's ridiculous.

Gallup Does Its Own Poll... And they didn't find a big drop in unemployment. They found the unemployment remaining at 8.1% (seasonally adjusted).


Posted by: Ace at 10:06 AM | Comments (295)
Post contains 595 words, total size 4 kb.

1 Because it's pure dogshit???

Posted by: Pornoy at October 05, 2012 10:07 AM (A5Abh)

2 ?

Posted by: Ed Anger at October 05, 2012 10:08 AM (tOkJB)

3 First??  Whupps...

Posted by: Portnoy at October 05, 2012 10:08 AM (A5Abh)

4 The WSJ says it takes between 200Kan d 250K new jobs to break even. 114K is far short of that.  The 7.8% number is a lie and everyone knows it.

Posted by: Vic at October 05, 2012 10:08 AM (YdQQY)

5 Second wasn't bad, considering I read the post first.

Posted by: Ed Anger at October 05, 2012 10:08 AM (tOkJB)

6 Ed Morrissey:  Dammit Ace you're f'ng my chances of getting a CNN spot.  Damn you, Damn you all to HELL!!

Posted by: c'mon at October 05, 2012 10:09 AM (W2qJe)

7 Anyone else notice that Team Obama is running ads on Fox News now? Not sure if it was local here in Illinois or national, but they just ran one during the Megan Kelly show. Either way, seems like a waste of money, no?

Posted by: Swanny at October 05, 2012 10:09 AM (XzlBE)

8

@1 My sentiment exactly,  as I just got finished noting over at my place.

 

How they expect us to believe this is just amazing. They truly think we're idiots. Although, the idiots will  believe it,  so there's that.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 05, 2012 10:10 AM (lOmbq)

9 It it smells like ...

Posted by: Tin man at October 05, 2012 10:10 AM (xhupI)

10 Unemployment? Never heard of it.

Posted by: Charlie Gibson at October 05, 2012 10:10 AM (mabI0)

11 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 05, 2012 10:10 AM (8y9MW)

12 BUT . BUT .. BUT ... The Hanky !! The Hanky !!

Posted by: Evilpens at October 05, 2012 10:11 AM (ck76k)

13 It doesn't pass the straight face test. Simple enough. Plus without momentum (we're actually in a downslide) the numbers just don't matter. People have a sense of what the economy is like, and outliers like this actually raise suspicion, not optimism.

Posted by: MJ at October 05, 2012 10:12 AM (TR60b)

14 I went all MathPagan* on the numbers over at my blog.


*"Are you a witch?"
 "Mm..  I don't have that kind of power.  The term is "Techno-Pagan."

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 05, 2012 10:12 AM (8y9MW)

15 The easy way to attack this would be for Team Mitt to just say, "If things are so wonderful, how many of your neighbors just got re-hired? If things are so wonderful, why is gas at an all-time high? If things are so wonderful, why is the cost of food going through the roof?" Etc. Etc. Just bring it down to a level where everyone can see that the numbers are ridiculous.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 05, 2012 10:12 AM (+tqYo)

16

Uh....did they include campaign jobs in those numbers?

 

Campaign jobs are 'non farm' jobs....but they are still seasonal jobs.

 

Posted by: wheatie at October 05, 2012 10:12 AM (l5RhJ)

17 Rush has been predicting for some time that they'd do anything to bring down the number below 8.0 to 7 point something before the election. The something doesn't matter. It's the 7 that counts according to him. So I call shenanigans. Rush was right.

Posted by: chique d'afrique at October 05, 2012 10:12 AM (6zgse)

18

 

My unicorns shit fake jobs as well as Skittles.

 

brb, force-feeding my unicorns again for next month

Posted by: Barack Hussein Obama at October 05, 2012 10:12 AM (ggRof)

19 But the damage is done. Look at the ridiculous headlines. I fear the low information voter will buy this hook,line,and sinker...

Posted by: Hello, it's just me Donna at October 05, 2012 10:13 AM (9+ccr)

20 My father always said: "Figures never lie, but liars often figure".

He was right.

Posted by: Nighthawk at October 05, 2012 10:13 AM (RSqz2)

21 I wonder if some random household claimed that 475,000 people living there all got new jobs, and the caller said "thank you" and went on to the next call without any follow-up questions.

Posted by: buzz at October 05, 2012 10:13 AM (i27M5)

22
According to President Flopears the unemployment rate is suppose to to around 5.6% with the passage of stimulus bill high 6.0% without.

Posted by: YIKES! at October 05, 2012 10:13 AM (6v/Tu)

23 Questioning the Ruler's employment figures is RACIST!

Posted by: wierd flunky at October 05, 2012 10:13 AM (X+nFp)

24 I'm Barack Obama and I'm the smartest mutha fucka in the history of everything.

Posted by: © Sponge at October 05, 2012 10:14 AM (UK9cE)

25

Why is it raising eyebrows? 

Math...  arithmatic. 

Posted by: HtP at October 05, 2012 10:14 AM (jx2j9)

26 What was the weighting on the poll of households, R+25 ('cuz they try to work)?

Posted by: eureka! at October 05, 2012 10:14 AM (cTjRR)

27 Hilda Solis: Woman of squalor.

Posted by: Wm T Sherman at October 05, 2012 10:15 AM (w41GQ)

28 Sorry, Ed's playing it safe.

Posted by: no way it's accurate at October 05, 2012 10:15 AM (LpQbZ)

29 The word "implausible" doesn't help.

Posted by: HtP at October 05, 2012 10:15 AM (jx2j9)

30

Fewer jobs added than last month and the percentage dropped even more than the previous month.  Yeah these numbers are just awesome and not suspicious at all.

Posted by: buzzion - Free Kratos at October 05, 2012 10:15 AM (GULKT)

31 Just survey 200,000 until you find 60,000 with the result you need.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 10:16 AM (3QaxX)

32 It's the Chicago way. Corruption through and through.

Posted by: DiogenesLamp at October 05, 2012 10:16 AM (0nt6p)

33 This type of shifting for a headline number really is unprecedented. I know we're all jaded and stuff, but let me tell you . . . I think this is sort of a big deal.

Posted by: BlackOrchid-StillMissingDagny at October 05, 2012 10:16 AM (J6kXj)

34 Every poll -- and that's what the household survey is, a big poll -- is subject for the occasional outside-the-MoE error.

That is -not- what Margin of Error means.

The Margin of Error is the measure of internal self-consistency. It says "If I used exactly the same procedure with another random sample generated in the same way, there's a 96% (two sigma) chance I'll be within the Margin of Error of the number reported."

It says nothing about the fundamental competence of the poll. You can poll goats on their preferences and get a nice 1% MoE. Because if you poll a different sample of the goats, you're confident you'll get within 1% of the previous set of goats.

But it's moronic: You're polling goats.

Intentionally skewing something like this is trivial is you have no morals. And doing proper polling -is- difficult.

And there's a freaking 9% response rate..

I vote for "This is complete bullshit".
The missing GDP would seem to back this up.

Posted by: Al at October 05, 2012 10:16 AM (MzQOZ)

35 But the prez said no one is "entitled" to success today in one of his sermons from the mount...They are,however entitled to free birth control, abortions and obamaphones..

Posted by: Hello, it's just me Donna at October 05, 2012 10:16 AM (9+ccr)

36 A military officer can refuse to carry out an immoral order. But a cabinet appointee apparently cannot.

Posted by: Wm T Sherman at October 05, 2012 10:16 AM (w41GQ)

37

The SCOAMT's  junta has bastardized everything.  We can no longer trust even basic statistical accounting anymore.   Let's face it.  They've been ripping the very fabric of how we keep tabs on the government to shreds.  This isn't an accident or an outlier. 

 

 

Posted by: Soona at October 05, 2012 10:16 AM (FhUgE)

38 I'd like to see the list of phone numbers called for this "household" survey.

Probably consists of the phone number of every SEIU local office in the country.

Posted by: Nighthawk at October 05, 2012 10:16 AM (RSqz2)

39 Real unemployment is 14.7% and unchanged since August.

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned, ready to get this done at October 05, 2012 10:17 AM (baL2B)

40 If the Media had thought George HW Bush had done something like this, they would have regarded it as a "crossing the Rubicon" moment, and would not have rested until they had screamed him out of office. Sometimes the consequence of Bias is not doing something.

Posted by: DiogenesLamp at October 05, 2012 10:18 AM (0nt6p)

41 "Now, according to the household survey, 873,000 jobs were created last month."



2/3rds of which were part time.



Remember when Bush was president and the press use to SCREAM about part time and underemployed?


Yeah.....

Posted by: Tami at October 05, 2012 10:18 AM (X6akg)

42
 One person brought up a good point.
If the unemployment drop the way it did.
How many of those jobs are part time with someone having more than one job or two and how is that factored in?

Posted by: YIKES! at October 05, 2012 10:18 AM (6v/Tu)

43 Gore chakra'a himself on TV again.

Posted by: HtP at October 05, 2012 10:18 AM (jx2j9)

44 Some of you may be aware that I'm openly hostile to conspiracy theory bullshit, but... the fact that every fucking positive job report later ends up getting quietly revised in one direction only- down- suggests to me something other than an honest misjudgement.

I guarantee this report will be revised severely downwards... after the election of course.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 05, 2012 10:18 AM (SY2Kh)

45

I said the other day here that these numbers were going to be pure BS.  Some commenters didn't agree and said this was out of al-obama's control.  Right...

 

Anything that can be cooked, will be cooked until the election.  You can damn sure bet on that.

Posted by: Havedash at October 05, 2012 10:19 AM (ToMJU)

46 Over on Drudge: BLS ECONOMISTS ARE OBAMA DONORS. Just a coincidence, I'm sure...

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 05, 2012 10:19 AM (+tqYo)

47

Chris Stirewalt was just on with Megyn Kelly, and mentioned that government jobs accounted for a good deal of their "jobs created" figure.

 

Well, govt jobs are revenue negative...they don't generate any new revenue.

And it takes revenue out of the till, to create them...and to sustain them.

The taxes that come out of a govt job, are merely taxes that were previously paid.

Posted by: wheatie at October 05, 2012 10:19 AM (l5RhJ)

48 repeat, please give a listen to this topic on today's coffee and markets podcast http://bit.ly/Wv0LOP something doesn't add up

Posted by: George Orwell what knows poor people don't know how to dress themselves at October 05, 2012 10:20 AM (AZGON)

49

BLS economists donors to Obama campaign...

Yep.  No conspiracy here.  Keep moving . . .

Posted by: c'mon at October 05, 2012 10:20 AM (W2qJe)

50 Do you think it's weird that I'm aroused by the stink of boy's feet?

Posted by: Andrew Breitbart at October 05, 2012 10:20 AM (bTzlP)

51 We are reaching the holiday shopping season.

Any net gain in jobs will be removed come January.  The number will go back up dramatically then, giving the left something to go after President Romney for.

Posted by: © Sponge at October 05, 2012 10:20 AM (UK9cE)

52 Last night I warned that Gallup was predicting 7.9% unemployment and many scoffed, and with good reason. Reuters and others had said it would probably rise to 8.3% So something is rotten in Washington...

Posted by: Hello, it's just me Donna at October 05, 2012 10:21 AM (9+ccr)

53 To BOLDLY go...

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 05, 2012 10:21 AM (+tqYo)

54 fix?

Posted by: Vic at October 05, 2012 10:21 AM (YdQQY)

55 If this figure is true, then we'll be seeing a corresponding DECLINE in SNAP recipients. 

That is a number they can't fake since the number of EBT cards that gets recharged, and the amount put on them each month is known precisely to the penny.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 10:21 AM (3QaxX)

56 Yes, President Obama personally added 873,000 jobs last month. And sharks still follow the old slave ship routes where they ate the bodies of the 200 million slaves thrown overboard. Because raysis.

Posted by: Rep. Major Owens (D-NY) at October 05, 2012 10:21 AM (IoNBC)

57 Looks like I found another cock to lick today, ace.

Posted by: Andrew Breitbart at October 05, 2012 02:20 PM (bTzlP)


FIFY

Posted by: YIKES! at October 05, 2012 10:22 AM (6v/Tu)

58

This cannot be believed.

 

At. All.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 05, 2012 10:22 AM (lOmbq)

59 To regularly go...

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 05, 2012 10:22 AM (+tqYo)

60 I like the bold.

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned, ready to get this done at October 05, 2012 10:22 AM (baL2B)

61 So what's the over/under on Dear Leader's first speech touting these numbers? Today,tommorow, yesterday?

Posted by: wierd flunky at October 05, 2012 10:22 AM (X+nFp)

62 again?

Posted by: phoenixgirl, what did huma abedin know at October 05, 2012 10:22 AM (j1z2L)

63 We know it's a lie. It's completely at odds with the world around us. If this stinks to the general public as much as it stinks to us, then it hurts O more than it helps him.

Posted by: Wm T Sherman at October 05, 2012 10:22 AM (w41GQ)

64 Sigh.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 05, 2012 10:22 AM (8y9MW)

65 Yeah, I wondered where the hell that number came from. I mean, if true, hurray! But wouldn't the prosperity montages have been running? Since this is all word of mouth stuff, wouldn't multiple local tv stations have been doing look the economy is booming! stories instead of 123,592 people showed up today to apply for the 13 jobs at the new McDonald's? You'd think this would have been noticeable before. Also how the fuck did 60,000 households generate 873,000 jobs? I mean, I know all those crazy college kids are moving back home but isn't that something like 13 jobs per house hold?

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD the revelator at October 05, 2012 10:23 AM (VtjlW)

66 Ace, is it okay if we Question The Timing?

Posted by: soothie at October 05, 2012 10:23 AM (jUytm)

67 61 So what's the over/under on Dear Leader's first speech touting these numbers? Today,tommorow, yesterday?

Posted by: wierd flunky at October 05, 2012 02:22 PM (X+nFp)




 He already did. Said we can't stop now with the progress we have made so vote for me...

Posted by: Hello, it's just me Donna at October 05, 2012 10:23 AM (9+ccr)

68 Looks like you found another cock to lick today, ace.

Posted by: Andrew Breitbart at October 05, 2012 02:20 PM (bTzlP)



I thought it was starting to smell like someone ate diseased cow liver and was blowing it out their ass.....

Posted by: © Sponge at October 05, 2012 10:23 AM (UK9cE)

69 time for the banhammer

Posted by: Vic at October 05, 2012 10:23 AM (YdQQY)

70 Ace, add the classic, How to Lie with Statistics to your Amazon store so we can link it everywhere

Posted by: Jean at October 05, 2012 10:23 AM (hjRtO)

71

51 We are reaching the holiday shopping season.

 

We are already in....the Campaign Season.

I would bet, that they included campaign jobs in those numbers.

 

Posted by: wheatie at October 05, 2012 10:23 AM (l5RhJ)

72 61 So what's the over/under on Dear Leader's first speech touting these numbers? Today,tommorow, yesterday?

Posted by: wierd flunky at October 05, 2012 02:22 PM (X+nFp)


I briefly caught a clip of him on Fox at a rally today doing just that.

Posted by: Tami at October 05, 2012 10:23 AM (X6akg)

73 Via John Nolte: http://bit.ly/T9nQry (zerohedge)

Posted by: slatz at October 05, 2012 10:23 AM (mE0Rl)

74 Some of you may be aware that I'm openly hostile to conspiracy theory bullshit, but... the fact that every fucking positive job report later ends up getting quietly revised in one direction only- down- suggests to me something other than an honest misjudgement. I guarantee this report will be revised severely downwards... after the election of course. Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 05, 2012 02:18 PM (SY2Kh) Yeah, no conspiracy of corruption among Obama's people. You know, like Bill Ayres, Bernadine Dorn, Peter Geitner, Frank Davis, Vallerie Jarret, Tony Rezko, and so on...

Posted by: DiogenesLamp at October 05, 2012 10:23 AM (0nt6p)

75

So what's the over/under on Dear Leader's first speech touting these numbers? Today,tommorow, yesterday?

 

He already  did it at one of his campaign stops today.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 05, 2012 10:24 AM (lOmbq)

76 What is the value in having a household survey, anyway? Shouldn't "the Govt" know who is employed and who isn't from payroll taxes?

Posted by: Y-not hasn't read the comments at October 05, 2012 10:24 AM (5H6zj)

77 The local Big Lots is already advertising for seasonal help.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 10:24 AM (3QaxX)

78 I enjoy gobbling cock as well.  Horse cock.  And then spreading horse semen all over my face.

Posted by: Erg at October 05, 2012 10:24 AM (/YJYi)

79 5 Second wasn't bad, considering I read the post first.

Posted by: Ed Anger at October 05, 2012 02:08 PM (tOkJB)


Wow, yer my hero....

Posted by: Portnoy at October 05, 2012 10:25 AM (A5Abh)

80

I'll boldly state that these are a snow job.

Posted by: DaveA at October 05, 2012 10:25 AM (wcjj2)

81 As long as "conservatives" like Poppin' Fresh are ready -- no, eager -- to perform any scrutiny of Choom Boy and his regime only through the rose-colored lens of "fairness," the campaign can shit out any phony statistics they want and be greeted with, at worst, the most mild of skepticism.

Sometimes, that everyone-has-a-good-side mentality results in pure evil gaining power. The last four years have been a prime example.

It's time to put wishy-washy "fairness" away. Ignore Tepid Air, Clownhall.com and the Daily Bawler.

Posted by: MrScribbler at October 05, 2012 10:25 AM (ZgX/g)

82

Another intuitive revelation I just put together from a few phrases someone said on TV just now.

SCOAMT can't talk without his teleprompter.

His communication skills are what lead people to see him as likeable.

His teleprompter is the sole reason for his likability.

 

What a shell of humanity.

Posted by: HtP at October 05, 2012 10:25 AM (jx2j9)

83 What is the value in having a household survey, anyway? Shouldn't "the Govt" know who is employed and who isn't from payroll taxes?

Using hard numbers like that would show a much grimmer picture...so they don't.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 10:25 AM (3QaxX)

84 >>It doesn't pass the straight face test.

In related news, the president of the National Geographic Channel says his channel is "not political".

Posted by: SpongeBob Saget at October 05, 2012 10:26 AM (SDkq3)

85 Banhammer for commenter @ post 65. Please.

No one benefits from having a 12 year old troll infecting the discussion.

Posted by: BuckIV at October 05, 2012 10:26 AM (gedHR)

86

I mean, if true, hurray! 

 

There  is no fucking way this can be true, my Queen.

 

We are being lied to again.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 05, 2012 10:26 AM (lOmbq)

87 The trolls sound especially dispirited since Wednesday.

Posted by: Waterhouse at October 05, 2012 10:26 AM (POGCP)

88 Hey morons, who is this little pouffe-skank "Andrew Breitbart" anyway? Is this new dog-shit on my shoe, or just some old recycled troll?

Posted by: tubal at October 05, 2012 10:26 AM (BoE3Z)

89 This will be corrected by Monday morning as a "fat finger" drunken data entry "mistake.."

Posted by: Sunny at October 05, 2012 10:26 AM (3A7PP)

90 I hope the coming Obama reelection will motivate you to kill yourself. I really do.

Posted by: Andrew Breitbart at October 05, 2012 02:22 PM (bTzlP)



I guess this means your shift at the glory hole is up.

Posted by: © Sponge at October 05, 2012 10:27 AM (UK9cE)

91 You know aren't fooled by these fake numbers?  23M people, that's who.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 10:27 AM (3QaxX)

92 The unemployment figure coming out this morning is real.  Americans are going back to work as 0bama's policies are kicking in.  People are getting what we call a three-letter word.  J-O-B-S

Posted by: Joe "ima kick Ryan's ass" Biden at October 05, 2012 10:27 AM (YeoQj)

93
In Soviet America.... jobs create YOU.

Posted by: Yakov Jakov at October 05, 2012 10:27 AM (C8hzL)

94
Right now some library out there smell like used depends and Old Spice.

Posted by: YIKES! at October 05, 2012 10:27 AM (6v/Tu)

95 I hope the coming Obama reelection will motivate you to kill yourself. I really do.

Posted by: Andrew Breitbart at October 05, 2012 02:22 PM (bTzlP)


-------------



What kind of dreadful heart concocts these kinds of thoughts, and goes on to express them out loud?

Posted by: mama winger at October 05, 2012 10:27 AM (P6QsQ)

96 What is the value in having a household survey, anyway?

Self-employment and Mom & Pops.

The -very- small companies don't report all of the information any faster than yearly.

Posted by: Al at October 05, 2012 10:27 AM (MzQOZ)

97 84 >>It doesn't pass the straight face test.

In related news, the president of the National Geographic Channel says his channel is "not political".

Posted by: SpongeBob Saget at October 05, 2012 02:26 PM (SDkq3)


  Riiight. If he isn't political perhaps the 2016 makers should ask that they get equal time and play it too.

Posted by: Hello, it's just me Donna at October 05, 2012 10:27 AM (9+ccr)

98 Gallup Does Its Own Poll... And they didn't find a big drop in unemployment. They found the unemployment remaining at 8.1% (seasonally adjusted). Oh Hai

Posted by: DOJ at October 05, 2012 10:27 AM (UZQM8)

99 Man, ergastularius is just phoning it in now. Sad really.

Posted by: toby928© for TB at October 05, 2012 10:27 AM (QupBk)

100 &

Posted by: All Trolls Are Average Joe Who Sucks Cock By Choice at October 05, 2012 10:27 AM (/YJYi)

101 So they phoned all these households and the people just told them this figure?

We're going to believe this bullshit?  Riiiiiiiight....

Posted by: EC at October 05, 2012 10:28 AM (GQ8sn)

102 Lucky break this statical anomaly that created the best UE rate deduction in 30 years happened one month before a Presidential election.

Posted by: lowandslow at October 05, 2012 10:28 AM (GZitp)

103 91 You know aren't fooled by these fake numbers? 23M people, that's who.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 02:27 PM (3QaxX)

-----------

And each of those 23 million people on average has multiple family members and friends who know about them.

Posted by: Wm T Sherman at October 05, 2012 10:28 AM (w41GQ)

104 We create more jobs than Eurasia.

Posted by: 98ZJUSMC in Johnson County laughing at Cook County at October 05, 2012 10:28 AM (MJILy)

105 You can't effectively ban erg, he's using all sorts of dynamic university and other IP's.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 10:28 AM (3QaxX)

106 Ya know, that unused $600 billion from the Stimulus? Sure does rent a bunch of part-time "workers".

Posted by: TFG 2012 at October 05, 2012 10:28 AM (rlba9)

107 Yeah, Gallup last night had the seasonally unadjusted # at 7.9...

Posted by: Hello, it's just me Donna at October 05, 2012 10:29 AM (9+ccr)

108 But it's moronic: You're polling goats.

With a telephone, that's ridiculous.
Wait, never mind.  pole vs. poll.

Posted by: Achmed the disappointed terrorist at October 05, 2012 10:29 AM (wcjj2)

109 You can't effectively ban erg, he's using all sorts of dynamic university and other IP's.

I thought Pixy could at least filter the "Name" field so he can't post as AB.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 05, 2012 10:29 AM (8y9MW)

110 I guess this means your shift at the glory hole is up.

Leave him alone.  He had to find some way to get a little comfort and companionship after a solid day of crying over Obama getting slaughtered in the debate.

And nothing comforts him more than sucking a little anonymous geriatric dick.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 05, 2012 10:29 AM (SY2Kh)

111 I hope the troll's suicide talk wasn't projection. Unlike warmists, I don't like seeing the population reduced.

Posted by: JDTAY at October 05, 2012 10:30 AM (a0nis)

112 Banhammer for commenter @ post 65. Please. No one benefits from having a 12 year old troll infecting the discussion. Posted by: BuckIV at October 05, 2012 02:26 PM (gedHR) I think you got the wrong post number. That is Alex the Chick. Not a troll.

Posted by: DiogenesLamp at October 05, 2012 10:30 AM (0nt6p)

113 You can't effectively ban erg, he's using all sorts of dynamic university and other IP's.

Whole subnet filter.

Posted by: EC at October 05, 2012 10:30 AM (GQ8sn)

114 105 You can't effectively ban erg, he's using all sorts of dynamic university and other IP's.

Thanks for info. I will continue to ignore it.

Posted by: BuckIV at October 05, 2012 10:30 AM (gedHR)

115

Campaign jobs are'non farm' jobs....but they are still seasonal jobs.

No they aren't. What season has Obama stopped campaigning for? Certainly not the Spring, Summer, Autumn or Winter ones. Leap seasons?

Posted by: entropy at October 05, 2012 10:30 AM (TULs6)

116 Two other serious problems with the Unemployment Data: Manufacturing orders dropped by over 5% and coal jobs lost 13-15 million jobs in August. That doesn't translate to lower unemployment.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 05, 2012 10:30 AM (r4wIV)

117 65? AtC is #65 or maybe I'm insane again.

Posted by: wierd flunky at October 05, 2012 10:30 AM (X+nFp)

118 You can't effectively ban erg, he's using all sorts of dynamic university and other IP's.

There are plenty of willing TB3K operators, though.

Of course some of us would use our powers with less circumspection than others ...

Posted by: Waterhouse would nuke oZfic so fast ... at October 05, 2012 10:30 AM (POGCP)

119
.... I think I know where all those Global Warming statisticians ended up at....

Posted by: fixerupper at October 05, 2012 10:31 AM (C8hzL)

120 112 Banhammer for commenter @ post 65. Please.

No one benefits from having a 12 year old troll infecting the discussion.

Posted by: BuckIV at October 05, 2012 02:26 PM (gedHR)

I think you got the wrong post number. That is Alex the Chick. Not a troll.


Ooops, my apologies to ATC then

Posted by: BuckIV at October 05, 2012 10:31 AM (gedHR)

121 When the people increasingly see the government as openly lying to them and openly breaking the laws,  and openly manipulating reality to keep them oppressed, the people will cease to view government as legitimate and will take measures to openly resist it.

Posted by: mama winger at October 05, 2012 10:31 AM (P6QsQ)

122 Pat and Stu made an excellent analogy this morning. Obama is like the NFL coach who took over, say, the Buffalo Bills, who just finished their last season with a 4-12 record. In Coach Obama's first year, his Bills went 2-14. In his second year as coach, the Bills went 3-13. In his fourth year, Coach Obama led the Bills to a 4-12 record. And now Coach Obama and ESPN are celebrating the wonderful job Obama did bringing the Bills back to the place he started. woo hooo, we're 4 and 12! we're 4 and 12!!

Posted by: soothie at October 05, 2012 10:31 AM (jUytm)

123 Original post 65 was deleted, guys. It was pretty bad.

Posted by: JDTAY at October 05, 2012 10:31 AM (a0nis)

124

95....What kind of dreadful heart concocts these kinds of thoughts, and goes on to express them out loud?

 

A liberal heart, mama winger.

And, just like the Islamists...liberals want to kill anyone who doesn't agree with them.

 

"Death to the Non-Believers" <----this is what the liberals and muslims both agree on.

Posted by: wheatie at October 05, 2012 10:32 AM (l5RhJ)

125 at least filter the "Name" field so he can't post as AB.

There's so many variations on that, it becomes whack-a-mole.  Registration is really the only way to stamp out the worst sociopaths.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 10:32 AM (3QaxX)

126 Obama is coach of the year! Quick, extend that man's contract!

Posted by: ESPN at October 05, 2012 10:32 AM (jUytm)

127

Orders for durable  goods dropped 12% last month.

 

We   are being lied to. Again.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 05, 2012 10:32 AM (lOmbq)

128

Whole subnet filter.

 

That kind of thinking is teh stupid, it's like shooting at flies in your house with a shotgun. How many thousands of people are you going to blanket ban just to make the troll find a different proxy to use before posting?

Posted by: entropy at October 05, 2012 10:32 AM (TULs6)

129

 

yhey call joe biden's house 60,000 times

Posted by: kj at October 05, 2012 10:32 AM (zYYbU)

130 You can't effectively ban erg, he's using all sorts of dynamic university and other IP's.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 02:28 PM (3QaxX)



I'm going with living out of his car and mooching off unsecured networks.

Posted by: YIKES! at October 05, 2012 10:33 AM (6v/Tu)

131 Manufacturing orders dropped by over 5% and coal jobs lost 13-15 million jobs in August. That doesn't translate to lower unemployment.

Truly, they're just making shit up now.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 10:33 AM (3QaxX)

132 Sharks, I said!! SHARRRKKKKSSSS!!!!

Posted by: Rep. Major Owens (D-NY) at October 05, 2012 10:33 AM (IoNBC)

133 That kind of thinking is teh stupid, it's like shooting at flies in your house with a shotgun.

It works doesn't it?

Posted by: EC at October 05, 2012 10:33 AM (GQ8sn)

134 In lefty economic classes they must teach their students that when durable goods orders are the lowest in the past 4 quarters , the unemployment rate falls. Its science!!!

Posted by: polynikes at October 05, 2012 10:34 AM (m2CN7)

135 "Death to the Non-Believers" <----this is what the liberals and muslims both agree on.

Posted by: wheatie at October 05, 2012 02:32 PM (l5RhJ)


------------


I am afraid you are right on that wheatie.

Posted by: mama winger at October 05, 2012 10:34 AM (P6QsQ)

136

This really doesn't worry me.  Those people that  talk about the low-info voter?  Do you think the low-info voter is going to be interested enough to even register what the unemployment figure for  this period is.

 

I bet if one were to ask a random  number of people on the street, I'm more than confident that probably not more than 2-3 out of ten could  say what today's report said, let alone what it really means.

Posted by: Soona at October 05, 2012 10:35 AM (FhUgE)

137
In lefty economic classes....

----

Those are called Sociology.

Posted by: fixerupper at October 05, 2012 10:35 AM (C8hzL)

138 Well if it is a statistical quirk that could mean bad things for Obama.  Jobs report comes out right before election day and a bump back up to 8% wouldn't be good.  But I'm leaning towards they're just full of shit.

Posted by: Adam at October 05, 2012 10:35 AM (/YJYi)

139 Manufacturing orders dropped by over 5% and coal jobs lost 13-15
million jobs in August. That doesn't translate to lower unemployment.

I missed this original comment.  Is there a link to those numbers?

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 05, 2012 10:35 AM (8y9MW)

140 Did they figure in how many people went in disability ???? Cooked books, corrupt numbers for a corrupt socialist regime . Pleas Mitt and Paul hit them with Real numbers and real math !!!!!

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 05, 2012 10:36 AM (3T04y)

141 I see that the righty economic students pointed out the durable goods conundrum already.

Posted by: polynikes at October 05, 2012 10:36 AM (m2CN7)

142 "Death to the Non-Believers" <----this is what the liberals and muslims both agree on. Posted by: wheatie at October 05, 2012 02:32 PM (l5RhJ) I can't wait to see what happens when the anti-God left gets together with a superior force of Muslims.

Posted by: DiogenesLamp at October 05, 2012 10:36 AM (0nt6p)

143 142 million in the workforce.
.1 or 1/10 of a percent is 140k.
.3 or 3/10 should be 420k.

Yet, we added only 114k.

And the BLS tells us that 114k is equal to 3/10 of a percent.

Further, the claim is 600k of the 800k+ is temp jobs. Implying retailers ramping up for Christmas.

Except: They have never hired this early and to think so is stupid. Why have "temp" guys on payroll to ramp up for a sales season that doesn't begin for some 60 days?

Further: Retailers set their orders for Christmas some 6 months out. You recall a single report of a sudden spike in factory and shipping orders in July? You hear one single suggestion that this Christmas is going to be the mother of all blowouts, a "strip the shelves bare", "your kids are going to get gift-wrapped toilet paper and an oil funnel for Christmas 'cause everything else will be sold out" type of season? 'Cause that's the only way 600k temp hires would be needed all the way back in September.

Bullshit.

Posted by: RoyalOil at October 05, 2012 10:36 AM (imtbm)

144 Never mind the man behind the curtain. The unemployment numbers are down...just because

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 05, 2012 10:36 AM (1Jaio)

145 Sociopaths have been with the Internet since before it was the internet.  There were sociopaths on Arpanet too. 

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 10:36 AM (3QaxX)

146 Sharks, I said!! SHARRRKKKKSSSS!!!!

JETS!!!!

Posted by: Rep Riff (J-West Side) at October 05, 2012 10:36 AM (/kI1Q)

147 That kind of thinking is teh stupid, it's like shooting at flies in your house with a shotgun.


Not so fast, smart guy....


http://scoamf.us/zZ

Posted by: © Sponge at October 05, 2012 10:36 AM (UK9cE)

148 The trolls must really be smarting from seeing their buttboy Barry fuck up his first debate like the affirmative action retard that he is.  Nice deity you got there, dipshits.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at October 05, 2012 10:36 AM (QKKT0)

149 I can't wait to see what happens when the anti-God left gets together with a superior force of Muslims.

My mom would never let anyone hurt me.

Posted by: Ergie at October 05, 2012 10:37 AM (QKKT0)

150 Assuming that there is no intentional manipulation going on here and this is just result of statistical noise, we should see a survey closer to reality the Friday before the election. The household survey is far more volatile than the establishment survey and you do see wild month-to-month swings that average out (examples just in the last 2 months -- household survey showed a drop in both months, whereas the establishment survey showed small gains). If they get a more representative sample, that could result in a huge increase in the U rate just before the election (even if unemployment in reality doesn't drop much).

Posted by: kteemac at October 05, 2012 10:38 AM (pLTLS)

151 Still no nickless, eh? f'n quitter

Posted by: soothie at October 05, 2012 10:38 AM (jUytm)

152

Paraphrasing a conclusion Dan Perino just made from what the Obama administration, buoyed by the MFM, is saying about Romney's debate performance:  "Romney didn't cooperate by proving that he is the asshole we have been telling everyone he is for the last year, so he is... eh... lying!.  Yeah!  That's it!"

Posted by: HtP at October 05, 2012 10:39 AM (jx2j9)

153

At least two of the economists at BLS are Obama donors:

 

http://tinyurl.com/9paxlfl

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at October 05, 2012 10:39 AM (YmPwQ)

154

115 Campaign jobs are'non farm' jobs....but they are still seasonal jobs.

 

 
No they aren't. What season has Obama stopped campaigning for? Certainly not the Spring, Summer, Autumn or Winter ones. Leap seasons?

 

--------

 

Campaign Season, entropy.

While you have a point...that Barky has been perpetually campaigning...

There are other campaigns, too.

 

It's a campaign year, all across the country.

And most of those jobs are not permanent employment.

 

Posted by: wheatie at October 05, 2012 10:39 AM (l5RhJ)

155 The other problem with that survey-- it doesn't get revised. It's not "reviewable" so if like in football--it was a b.s. call --it just hangs there.

Posted by: MSNBC News at October 05, 2012 10:39 AM (r2PLg)

156 One of businesses (in which 410,000 businesses report) and a large phone survey of households (in which 60,000 homes are called).

Now, according to the household survey, 873,000 jobs were created last month.




They called 60,000 households and got 873,000 new jobs. Are they all working at the unicorn factory?

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 05, 2012 10:39 AM (1Jaio)

157 Dana - obviously

Posted by: HtP at October 05, 2012 10:39 AM (jx2j9)

158 Jobs report comes out right before election day and a bump back up to 8% wouldn't be good.

Integrity is like virginity.  Easy to lose, hard to regain.  Now that Obama is  well down the path of deception, there really is no way back.  He's gotta keep faking it.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 10:40 AM (3QaxX)

159 #52 - Gallup was predicting 8.2% - has been cited at several other places

Posted by: NoBama12 at October 05, 2012 10:40 AM (ykY2u)

160 Oh oh Biden is going to get called out on this next week by the math witch .....can't wait

Posted by: Navycopjoe (iphone5 snob) at October 05, 2012 10:41 AM (wmoPF)

161 Ann Althouse just popped in to say her and her mewling ax gash are going to vote for Obama now because it's ugly to accuse a black man of lying.

Posted by: RoyalOil at October 05, 2012 10:41 AM (imtbm)

162 Is this the first time in the Household survey they are applying the new welfare work requirements?  I am dead serious.  Remember, under the new rules, if you join Weight Watchers, you are "working". Get a massage, that is "working".  Help someone clean their house, that is "working", etc, etc, etc.  Am I way off my rocker??

Posted by: sybilll at October 05, 2012 10:41 AM (hp5gU)

163 Romney will likely win in November. Unless of course the Democrats cheat their way in. And, after all they are the party of liars, cheats and thieves. If they succeed in cheating their way in, then it's game over, effectively.
The damage will be non-repairable, until after the civil war. A second Obama term means everyone not dependent on government needs to head to their metaphorical hills.
In any event, whoever wins, it's gonna be really ugly.
Because you can't unscramble eggs.

Posted by: tubal at October 05, 2012 10:41 AM (BoE3Z)

164 Doesn't matter if this number is a lie ( it is). The purpose was to give Obamabots like Brian Williams, Diane Sawyer and Scott Pelley their own personal Obama commercial tonight after the disaster 3 days ago. Fortunately any pop will last right up until you have to go get gas.

Posted by: jjshaka at October 05, 2012 10:41 AM (6AFbf)

165 Ace, are you saying the BLS didn't seasonally adjust the data? That would be a pretty serious -- maybe even deliberate -- error.

Posted by: red sweater at October 05, 2012 10:41 AM (Xwgt3)

166 Do you really think Obama's BLS would ever increase the UE rate 4 days before the election??

Posted by: soothie at October 05, 2012 10:42 AM (jUytm)

167 This shit is about as believable as Obama claiming 40 million people celebrated his anniversary.

Posted by: Fritz at October 05, 2012 10:42 AM (vm7ot)

168 a large phone survey of households (in which 60,000 homes are called).
Now, according to the household survey, 873,000 jobs were created last month.

Okay, now I want to see how their numbers work out, because unless each of those homes had 100 people in it, you're doing some extrapolation- which is not necessarily bad, but should be transparent so others can a) check your math and b) check your assumptions.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 05, 2012 10:42 AM (8y9MW)

169 The damage will be non-repairable, until after the civil war.

I know which side I'm betting on.

Posted by: EC at October 05, 2012 10:42 AM (GQ8sn)

170 So if every other economic indicator is down, what are these 800k newly employed people doing exactly?

Posted by: Nighthawk at October 05, 2012 10:43 AM (RSqz2)

171 159 #52 -Gallup was predicting 8.2% - has been cited at several other places

Posted by: NoBama12 at October 05, 2012 02:40 PM (ykY2u)


  Last night before I came on here, I checked Gallup and they had their number at 7,9% unadjusted. That's all I know, and I said at the time it was an unadjsted number. But it's a mute point now anyway...

Posted by: Hello, it's just me Donna at October 05, 2012 10:43 AM (9+ccr)

172 Ann Althouse just popped in to say her and her mewling ax gash are going to vote for Obama now because it's ugly to accuse a black man of lying. Posted by: RoyalOil at October 05, 2012 02:41 PM (imtbm) Are you kidding? It would not surprise me. When I heard her talk about how ugly people looked over Obama's racist video, I said to myself "She's just looking for an excuse to vote for him again."

Posted by: DiogenesLamp at October 05, 2012 10:43 AM (0nt6p)

173 I know which side I'm betting on. Casualties.

Posted by: toby928© for TB at October 05, 2012 10:43 AM (QupBk)

174

Prediction:  Sometime in December or January--safely after the election, that is--BLS will quietly revise the U3 number upward a couple of notches, and it will turn out that, gee, it really was still around 8.1% after all.  They will blame "sampling errors" or some such.  They just have to get through November, that's all.

 

No, I'm not a conspiracy theorist.  I just don't trust anything that comes out of this Administration.  Anything.

Posted by: Hayabusa at October 05, 2012 10:44 AM (659DL)

175 If I'm doing the math right, the survey would have to show only 350 new jobs in 60,000 households to extrapolate out to almost 900K new jobs in 150,000,000 households. (And two-thirds of those were part-time jobs - 240 or so.)

Posted by: kteemac at October 05, 2012 10:44 AM (pLTLS)

176 "your kids are going to get gift-wrapped toilet paper and an oil funnel for Christmas 'cause everything else will be sold out"

More like people are gift-wrapping the toilet paper they were going to buy anyway just so their kids have something to unwrap.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 05, 2012 10:44 AM (/kI1Q)

177 #164... exactly

Posted by: Hello, it's just me Donna at October 05, 2012 10:44 AM (9+ccr)

178 They called 60,000 households and got 873,000 new jobs. Are they all working at the unicorn factory?

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 05, 2012 02:39 PM (1Jaio)


Since part time jobs is becoming the new norm. What percentage of those people are holding down more than one or two jobs?

Posted by: YIKES! at October 05, 2012 10:44 AM (6v/Tu)

179 Could the 873,000 be a misprint and should be 87,300? ... that would put it in line with 114,000.

Posted by: jb at October 05, 2012 10:45 AM (iSnaV)

180 Just so you know on next month's UE numbers I and countless others will spike it up even more. Stores are hiring for seasonal retail employees.

No doubt that "new jobs" will be spiked into the numbers just so in Jan the numbers can fall for Obama (doesn't matter to him) or Romney (be damning and lose his momentum/support)

Posted by: WheelmanForHire at October 05, 2012 10:45 AM (l8nIR)

181 No, I'm not a conspiracy theorist. I just don't trust anything that comes out of this Administration. Anything.

Indeed.  If Barack Obama remarked that the sky was blue, I'd have to go outside to check.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 05, 2012 10:45 AM (8y9MW)

182 "When the people increasingly see the government as openly lying to them and openly breaking the laws, and openly manipulating reality to keep them oppressed, the people will cease to view government as legitimate and will take measures to openly resist it."

The political class is definitely creating the conditions for a lot of instability going forward.

They will be done in by their hubristic overestimation of their own capability to "manage" a country this size. If they'd just stuck to the limited role that the Constitution envisions for them, there would be very little grounds for instability in the future.

Posted by: BS Inc. at October 05, 2012 10:46 AM (P2Ufm)

183  The trolls must really be smarting from seeing their buttboy Barry fuck up his first debate like the affirmative action retard that he is. Nice deity you got there, dipshits.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at October 05, 2012 02:36 PM (QKKT0)

 

 

------------------------------------------------------

 

 

The meme is already flying around that the SCOAMT's shit performance was a well-planned campaign rope-a-dope.

Posted by: Soona at October 05, 2012 10:46 AM (FhUgE)

184 Ace is right about this "recovery" being nothing like '83-'84. But Ace left out the real estate market being hot, hot, hot. Property values were going up, up, ...

Posted by: soothie at October 05, 2012 10:46 AM (jUytm)

185 "Rep. West Questions Labor Numbers 1 hr ago CNBC's Steve Liesman breaks down September's jobs data; and Rep. Allen West (R-FL), shares his opinions on the 7.8 percent unemployment rate. "I am very questionable of what we do see coming out of this administration because the numbers don't add up," he says." http://tinyurl.com/8jrjxxs "McCain: I Wouldn't Put Anything Past This Administration 1 hr ago CNBC's Eamon Javers reports the Office of Management and Budget's argument on the WARN Act. Senator John McCain (R-AZ), shares his take on the Obama administration, and whether the federal labor law is being violated, saying he wouldn't put anything past this Administration." http://tinyurl.com/8f37usa

Posted by: pray for peace at October 05, 2012 10:46 AM (oZfic)

186 The Bills rarely finish with those types of really bad records. They usually win just enough meaningless games at the end of the season to prevent them drafting any really good players. They can rarely even lose correctly.

122
Pat and Stu made an excellent analogy this morning.

Obama is like the NFL coach who took over, say, the Buffalo Bills, who just finished their last season with a 4-12 record.

In Coach Obama's first year, his Bills went 2-14. In his second year as coach, the Bills went 3-13.

In his fourth year, Coach Obama led the Bills to a 4-12 record. And now Coach Obama and ESPN are celebrating the wonderful job Obama did bringing the Bills back to the place he started.

woo hooo, we're 4 and 12!

we're 4 and 12!! Posted by: soothie at October 05, 2012 02:31 PM (jUytm

Posted by: Pyrocles at October 05, 2012 10:46 AM (cv5Iw)

187 They called 60,000 households and got 873,000 new jobs. Are they all working at the unicorn factory?

The data from the 60k gets extrapolated to the nation and "adjusted" by an obsolete "model" for small business creations/dissolution.

The business creation/dissolution model's assumptions haven't been re-calibrated for recession/depression levels of business stagnation and has been a target for criticism for quite a while.

MUCH mischief can be hidden within the assumptions of the business creation/dissolution model and the correction factors it generates.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 10:46 AM (3QaxX)

188 crap left the MSNBC News sock on--. It's a damn survey--and it doesn't get "revised". The bull shit will stand there. It's like a call that is not reviewable in football.

Posted by: tasker at October 05, 2012 10:46 AM (r2PLg)

189 Banhammer for commenter @ post 65. Please. Sheesh, I'm glad to find out that the posts got renumbered because I was all now what the fuck did I do.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD the revelator at October 05, 2012 10:47 AM (VtjlW)

190 No conspiracy theory needed. The numbers speak for themselves. Big spike in government hiring. All other data showed continued growth in unemployment and in folks leaving the workforce. In other words, we are continuing to produce less, employ fewer people, shrink the tax based (or "reduce revenue" if you're a Democrat), and slide further off an economic cliff. Meanwhile, food, gas, energy, etc. costs continue to spike and out tab for government lackies who produce nothing but inexplicably high costs took an even larger spike. Our credit rate was still downgraded, twice. China, our largest creditor, is cutting us off and selling our debt. The only reason we haven't defaulted is because Bernake has abandoned Andy presence maitaining a legitimate currency and vowed to keep printing funny money until this all goes away. So, hurray! Unemployment is now 7.8% (until we get the inevitable downward "revision"). And the only reason is because Bernake printed enough Monopoly money for the government to hire a shit ton of people to do nothing. It's the equivalent of me claiming to be a trillionaire overnight because I have unilaterally declaired that my economy sized case of Costco toilet paper to now be worth $100,000,000 per square... and an otherwise unemployable jackass has agreed to sleep in my hallway in exchange for unrestricted access to my bathroom. Hurray!

Posted by: Damiano at October 05, 2012 10:48 AM (GZjj9)

191 I note that 7.8% UE is still 40% higher than the 5.6% UE we were promised by the Zero and his stimulus bounty.

Posted by: Hrothgar (Dagny Aficionado ) at October 05, 2012 10:49 AM (Cnqmv)

192 Are you kidding? It would not surprise me. When I heard her talk about how ugly people looked over Obama's racist video, I said to myself "She's just looking for an excuse to vote for him again."

Posted by: DiogenesLamp at October 05, 2012 02:43 PM (0nt6p)


She's a university professor in Madison WI, right?  Like there was any question who she would vote for.  Swing vote, hah. 

Thar She Blows!   another moby.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 05, 2012 10:49 AM (z1N6a)

193 The political class is definitely creating the conditions for a lot of instability going forward. They will be done in by their hubristic overestimation of their own capability to "manage" a country this size. If they'd just stuck to the limited role that the Constitution envisions for them, there would be very little grounds for instability in the future. Posted by: BS Inc. at October 05, 2012 02:46 PM (P2Ufm) You've heard of the French Revolution? According to "Leftism Revisited" it was mostly agitated and financed by the Wives and Children of the Wealthy Aristocrats. i.e. the "social elite." These pointed head Liberals who imagine themselves to be intellectuals will be shocked when their heads are put in the guillotine.

Posted by: DiogenesLamp at October 05, 2012 10:49 AM (0nt6p)

194
"They will be done in by their hubristic overestimation of their own capability to "manage" a country this size. If they'd just stuck to the limited role that the Constitution envisions for them, there would be very little grounds for instability in the future."

Oh well, country size is likely to change before long anyway.
Which would bother this regime not one bit. That is one good way of giving America its' comeuppance - in the eyes of the anti-colonial Marxist occupying the White House.

Posted by: tubal at October 05, 2012 10:49 AM (BoE3Z)

195 The Buffalo Bills have put on the field the best 6-10-season teams that ever played.

Posted by: soothie at October 05, 2012 10:49 AM (jUytm)

196 Sheesh, I'm glad to find out that the posts got renumbered because I was all now what the fuck did I do.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD the revelator at October 05, 2012 02:47 PM (VtjlW)


It's a lot easier when they replace the content rather than wipe the post.  Probably harder for them to do, though.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 05, 2012 10:50 AM (z1N6a)

197 I thought they were all still hard at work revising the previous months unemployment rate upwards. This must be like a miracle or something - two days after the one of the worst debate efforts in generations, the jobs data magically skyrockets ! Wow. Imagine that. Had this been a Bush administration, there would be never-ending calls for his immediate impeachment.

Posted by: DaveinMinnesota at October 05, 2012 10:50 AM (nOLbs)

198

 Something else that is different from 1983... 

 

The country hadn't been 'dumbed down' yet.

The Dept of Education, that Carter created...had not yet destroyed the education system across the country.

 

Posted by: wheatie at October 05, 2012 10:50 AM (l5RhJ)

199 Hollowpoint, 2:18- "Some of you may be aware that I'm openly hostile to conspiracy theory bullshit, but..." Agreed. Also, while I don't like to speculate that some folks I don't even know at BLS would cook the books - I have no reason to question their integrity - I don't have the faintest frigging doubt that the president's political advisers would lean on them to do so. Axelrod just told the media they need to go after Romney harder - I don't think he'd have any qualm about telling BLS, hey: If there's any way to tease these numbers and break that "above eight percent" talking point, now's the time!

Posted by: JPS at October 05, 2012 10:51 AM (7XP0x)

200 800,000 jobs is ROUGHLY what retail stores hire a year seasonally and part time. Could we have padded the numbers a month early only because it's fine to put us back in "high unemployment" on Obama's 2nd term?


Posted by: WheelmanForHire at October 05, 2012 10:51 AM (l8nIR)

201 After the debate, is anyone still believing that bozo is the smartest president ever.

Posted by: avi at October 05, 2012 10:52 AM (x3/Sw)

202 Today Obama used the word "progress" to describe his work on the economy. Progress. Progress? woo hoo, we're 4-12!! Progress! we're back to where Obama started!! Progress!

Posted by: soothie at October 05, 2012 10:52 AM (jUytm)

203 189. If you would video tape everything you do and post it here we would know

Posted by: Navycopjoe (iphone5 snob) at October 05, 2012 10:52 AM (nvwMe)

204 Just imagine how many jobs will be created in October if Barry gets his ass handed to him in the next two debates. We'll probably have less than 5% unemployment by Nov. 1.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 05, 2012 10:53 AM (1Jaio)

205 183 More like "campaign dope a dope".

Posted by: rickb223 at October 05, 2012 10:53 AM (GFM2b)

206 She's a university professor in Madison WI, right? Like there was any question who she would vote for. Swing vote, hah. Thar She Blows! another moby. Posted by: Oldcat at October 05, 2012 02:49 PM (z1N6a) Well Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit) seems to think Highly of her. There are Several University Professors that blog on the Conservative/Libertarian side of the Aisle. I've read some of her writing, (Instapundit links her every day) and she is not a reflexive liberal.

Posted by: DiogenesLamp at October 05, 2012 10:54 AM (0nt6p)

207  800,000 jobs is ROUGHLY what retail stores hire a year seasonally and part time. Could we have padded the numbers a month early only because it's fine to put us back in "high unemployment" on Obama's 2nd term?


Posted by: WheelmanForHire at October 05, 2012 02:51 PM (l8nIR)

 

 

---------------------------------------------------

 

 

Baraka will not get a second term.  Baraka's going down.  Right now it's just a question of how badly.

Posted by: Soona at October 05, 2012 10:54 AM (FhUgE)

208 A Reading from the Book of Obama... http://preview.tinyurl.com/8zd58nq

Posted by: richard mcenroe at October 05, 2012 10:55 AM (qvify)

209 They'll win the Super Bowl their first year after relocating to LA.

195
The Buffalo Bills have put on the field the best 6-10-season teams that ever played.
Posted by: soothie at October 05, 2012 02:49 PM (jUytm)

Posted by: Pyrocles at October 05, 2012 10:55 AM (cv5Iw)

210 Another point of mischief in the household survey is the wording of the questions.

If you're unemployed, and a neighbor gives you $10 to mow his lawn for an hour once a month, then you considered EMPLOYED.

Every unemployed person is out scrambling the occasional small odd cash jobs.  If they find one for one day or a few hours a month, they're no longer unemployed according to the govt.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 05, 2012 10:55 AM (3QaxX)

211 Anyone remember the All in the Family episode where Archie had to induct a black man into his club? After the man is accepted, Archie tells him he doesnt have to show up to the meetings. Maybe this is why obama never published as president of law review

Posted by: avi at October 05, 2012 10:55 AM (x3/Sw)

212 They are going for it.  The arrogance of stupid.  As Mitt said at the debate.

I have five boys they keep telling me something, that doesn't mean it is the truth.

The most polite way to call Barry a liar I have ever heard.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 05, 2012 10:56 AM (wR+pz)

213

#171 - I think Gallup's 7.9% was unadjusted and 8.2% was adjusted. 

#165 - interesting point.  If 600K were seasonal pt jobs for the holidays the seasonal factor should have offset it.  Every year pt jobs increase for the holidays and the BLS smooths them out so there isn't this volatility.  That would be a gross miscalculation by the BLS

Bottom line - I am hopeful that the reality that people live each day trumps this number but it won't be easy with the MSM going full bore on it.  Watch the MSM polls show a big boost for O to try and have this meme hold

Posted by: NoBama12 at October 05, 2012 10:56 AM (ykY2u)

214 We used to worry about October Surprises being sprung on campaigns.

Now we've go October Miracles as well.

Somewhere in a small Italian village they're putting flowers in front of the BLS report. Seems if you look at it just right, you can also see the Virgin Mary.

Posted by: RoyalOil at October 05, 2012 10:56 AM (imtbm)

215 Hey, it's just a coincidence that that we get a report of the single biggest one-month employment spike in nearly thirty years a month away from a presidential election where the incumbent's record on employment is the single biggest issue. 

Posted by: Col. Thorazine at October 05, 2012 10:56 AM (Xv7f/)

216

202
Today Obama used the word "progress" to describe his work on the economy.

 

Progress. 

 

Progress?

 

----------

 

Reminds me of Dennis Hopper, in 'Water World'....the way he said "Progress, progress".

 

The 'Smokers' were all for "progress".


 

Posted by: wheatie at October 05, 2012 10:56 AM (l5RhJ)

217 Chicago (Obama) politics:


"Fuck the voters- they're suckers. They'll swallow anything we tell 'em."

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 05, 2012 10:56 AM (8sCoq)

218 "I wonder if some random household claimed that 475,000 people living there all got new jobs, and the caller said "thank you" and went on to the next call without any follow-up questions." Oh, yeah, I remember now! It was the house over on 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Posted by: Conveniently Credulous Survey Taker at October 05, 2012 10:57 AM (T3KlW)

219 I've read some of her writing, (Instapundit links her every day) and she is not a reflexive liberal. She proudly voted for the low-level Chicago ward-heeler of no accomplishment to be President of the United States. Case closed forever.

Posted by: toby928© for TB at October 05, 2012 10:57 AM (QupBk)

220 207 800,000 jobs is ROUGHLY what retail stores hire a year seasonally and part time. Could we have padded the numbers a month early only because it's fine to put us back in "high unemployment" on Obama's 2nd term?
Posted by: WheelmanForHire at October 05, 2012 02:51 PM (l8nIR)
---------------------------------------------------
Baraka will not get a second term. Baraka's going down. Right now it's just a question of how badly.

Posted by: Soona at October 05, 2012 02:54 PM (FhUgE)

Regardless of how it goes it works in dem's favor. Either it plummets on an Obama reelection and who cares, no re-election. Or it plummets for Romney dashing his support as the guy who was supposed to "fix" the economy sees unemployment PLUMMET right after he is sworn in.

Posted by: WheelmanForHire at October 05, 2012 10:58 AM (l8nIR)

221 You asked for a miracle? I give you the B-L-S.

Posted by: hans obama at October 05, 2012 10:59 AM (QupBk)

222 If the earlier 8.2/113,000 number was related to anything, then a 7.8/114,000 number would imply that the entire American economy, employed or not, is 250,000 people. In other words, this is all transparently dishonest, and the entire BLS should be fired and replaced with randomly-selected high-school students. Seriously, we are a *half* step away from mobs of administration employees running around to Republican districts and sabotaging election materials.

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at October 05, 2012 10:59 AM (bxiXv)

223 Posted by: Oldcat at October 05, 2012 02:50 PM (z1N6a)


I think it would be easy to insert "Picture your post in the trash, because that's where it is!" rather than renumber, but this is pixy!

Posted by: Hrothgar (Dagny Aficionado ) at October 05, 2012 10:59 AM (Cnqmv)

224 I think we need to get the fuck out of town, ASAP.

Posted by: Lybrian Camels at October 05, 2012 11:00 AM (wR+pz)

225 Chicago (Obama) politics:


"Fuck the voters- they're suckers. They'll swallow anything we tell 'em."

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 05, 2012 02:56 PM (8sCoq)



A lot of Chicago politics is - what's in it for me? Unions - vote for me and you'll get the contracts, welfare - vote for me and the welfare tap keeps flowing.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 05, 2012 11:00 AM (1Jaio)

226 Seriously, we are a *half* step away from mobs of administration employees running around to Republican districts and sabotaging election materials.

Come visit Washington State. The "checks" have basically been removed from ballot integrity.

Posted by: Al at October 05, 2012 11:00 AM (MzQOZ)

227

The simplist answer is that they had one too many zeros in their multiplier.  If you survey 60,000 households, you need to extrapolate that out to the total population.  If you 'mistakenly' move a decimal place you get 873000 isntead of 87300.  The latter is in line with expectations.  The formal is a math error, which will be 'discovered' in mid-November.

Posted by: MikeP at October 05, 2012 11:01 AM (jYdQL)

228 They are going for it. The arrogance of stupid. As Mitt said at the debate.

I have five boys they keep telling me something, that doesn't mean it is the truth.

The most polite way to call Barry a liar I have ever heard.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 05, 2012 02:56 PM (wR+pz)

 

 

------------------------------------------------

 

 

Beck expanded on that statement and said  it was actually a  two-fold  hit, not only on the SCOAMT,  but also the MFM.

 

Not only that the statement itself was true, but that Romney was comparing the leftist propaganda machine to children.

Posted by: Soona at October 05, 2012 11:01 AM (FhUgE)

229 Ann Althouse: “I’m perceived as conservative online because I tend to react to things that annoy me—and I’m surrounded by liberals. I’m sure that if I lived among conservatives, I’d be tweaking them instead,” she says with a laugh. “I’m the opposite of a chameleon, trying to blend into the environment. I don’t mind standing out.” Ann Althouse:I identify myself as the outlier at Instapundit. Here: AM I THE ONLY ONE OF THE INSTAPUNDIT BLOGGERS AND GUEST-BLOGGERS who loathes the Daily Caller’s exploitation of the 2007 video of Barack Obama stirring up the black churchfolk? I don’t think this is helping Mitt Romney with the swing voters at all. Like last week’s playing and replaying of the Obamaphone lady’s ravings, it repels me from Republicans. I’m a swing voter — I voted for Obama in 2008 and Bush in 2004 — and I am genuinely undecided this year. ____________________________ Rudderless, no guiding principles --narcissism.

Posted by: tasker at October 05, 2012 11:01 AM (r2PLg)

230 Also how the fuck did 60,000 households generate 873,000 jobs? I mean, I know all those crazy college kids are moving back home but isn't that something like 13 jobs per house hold? -------- That crossed my mind earlier too. This whole thing stinks more than Sheila Jackson Lee's weave after she sat in the hot sun for 12 hours.

Posted by: Lady in Black at October 05, 2012 11:01 AM (xjwiy)

231 I still think we let this go. Let the Democrats run around bragging about this amazing unemployment rate and the great job their guy is doing. "7.8 percent! Suck it, wingers!" While the centrists watch and realize: They think they're doing a great job. If we vote for them, this is a good month.

Posted by: JPS at October 05, 2012 11:01 AM (7XP0x)

232 Why That 7.8% Unemployment Figure Is Raising  Rolling Eyebrow balls

FIFY

—Ace

Posted by: kansas at October 05, 2012 11:03 AM (mka2b)

233 Seriously, we are a *half* step away from mobs of administration employees running around to Republican districts and sabotaging election materials.

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at October 05, 2012 02:59 PM (bxiXv)

 

 

----------------------------------------------

 

 

A half step?  Look behind you.  They're breaking down the door.

Posted by: Soona at October 05, 2012 11:03 AM (FhUgE)

234 Ann Althouse: I identify myself as the outlier at Instapundit. Here: AM I THE ONLY ONE OF THE INSTAPUNDIT BLOGGERS AND GUEST-BLOGGERS who loathes the Daily Caller’s exploitation of the 2007 video of Barack Obama stirring up the black church folk? I don’t think this is helping Mitt Romney with the swing voters at all. Like last week’s playing and replaying of the Obamaphone lady’s ravings, it repels me from Republicans. I’m a swing voter — I voted for Obama in 2008 and Bush in 2004 — and I am genuinely undecided this year.

Posted by: tasker at October 05, 2012 11:04 AM (r2PLg)

235 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at October 05, 2012 11:04 AM (6o4Fb)

236 Banhammer and Cleanup on Aisle 50 please.

Posted by: johnd01 at October 05, 2012 11:04 AM (ukNFU)

237 It might just be digital.  If you set up a digital device to record the temperature in the basement, you'll get temperatures like 68, 70, 66, 262143, 67, 70,...

The 262143 ruins the average.

Posted by: rhhardin at October 05, 2012 11:04 AM (Sd/Nq)

238 Even stranget, the adjusted household survey numbers which take out farm jobs and people like me who "work" for my husband with no pay, yeah that number is only 300 off from last month. Where are they getting 800K, and why are the adjusted numbers flat?

Posted by: Lauren at October 05, 2012 11:05 AM (wsGWu)

239 I've read some of her writing, (Instapundit links her every day) and she is not a reflexive liberal. Posted by: DiogenesLamp at October 05, 2012 02:54 PM (0nt6p) Actually, she's *exactly* a reflexive liberal. What she's not is a *doctrinaire* liberal. She wanders off the reservation, questions ideas, but when it's time for a reflexive response, she goes right back into the camp. She plays the "I'm considering it / seeing both sides" card often enough, but the problem is she does so even for ridiculous examples.

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at October 05, 2012 11:05 AM (bxiXv)

240 The world has gone mad. I was just told by a leftie that Colonel West is a racist.

Posted by: pray for peace at October 05, 2012 11:06 AM (oZfic)

241 Okay... what did BuzzFeed do to tick of the Head Ewok?

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at October 05, 2012 11:06 AM (8y9MW)

242 Posted by: tasker at October 05, 2012 03:01 PM (r2PLg)

Frankly, I hope Althouse publicly announces she simply MUST vote for Obama to be "fair", because then I can ignore her even more completely than I do now!

Posted by: Hrothgar (Dagny Aficionado ) at October 05, 2012 11:07 AM (Cnqmv)

243 Come visit Washington State. The "checks" have basically been removed from ballot integrity. Posted by: Al at October 05, 2012 03:00 PM (MzQOZ) Dude, I'm in California. We did away with that fair elections jazz so long ago people don't even remember it to compare.

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at October 05, 2012 11:09 AM (bxiXv)

244 Even worse for the smell test, the Total Employment numbers which include a lot of "employment" that is "smoothed" out of the official numbers didn't move at all. How do you add 800k jobs without bumping up the Total Employment?

Posted by: Lauren at October 05, 2012 11:10 AM (wsGWu)

245 Maybe 830,000 people reported blow jobs

Posted by: Beto at October 05, 2012 11:11 AM (+I8Mq)

246 I'm not an Althouse fan. I'm just trying to give her the benefit of the doubt. She has seemed genuinely regretful for having voted for Obama. I, like others, am at a genuine loss in understanding how anyone could be so stupid as to have been fooled by this con man.

Posted by: DiogenesLamp at October 05, 2012 11:12 AM (0nt6p)

247 Frankly, I hope Althouse publicly announces she simply MUST vote for Obama to be "fair", because then I can ignore her even more completely than I do now! Posted by: Hrothgar (Dagny Aficionado ) at October 05, 2012 03:07 PM (Cnqmv) _______________ She doesn't care how she does it--all she wants is attention--good or bad. She's a troll with a blog--nothing else. I wouldn't have done that--but every damn thread breaks out with....

Posted by: tasker at October 05, 2012 11:12 AM (r2PLg)

248

Dems should be careful how much they gloat.    The next job number comes out November 2, the Friday before the election.  If this is an anomaly, a correction back to something closer to reality would mean a big tick upward in the UE rate.   If that happens that close to the election, it will be curtains for Prezidizzle Obizzle.

 

On the other hand, if they have two straight months of this statistical impossiblity, you'll know the fix was in.

Posted by: The Regular Guy at October 05, 2012 11:14 AM (qHCyt)

249

246 I'm not an Althouse fan. I'm just trying to give her the benefit of the doubt. She has seemed genuinely regretful for having voted for Obama.

 

If she were really regretful in the meaningful sense she would not be undecided.  She's pathetic and looking for any excuse possible to justify voting for her sexual fantasy in the white house again.

Posted by: buzzion - Free Kratos at October 05, 2012 11:15 AM (GULKT)

250 246 I'm not an Althouse fan. I'm just trying to give her the benefit of the doubt. She has seemed genuinely regretful for having voted for Obama. I, like others, am at a genuine loss in understanding how anyone could be so stupid as to have been fooled by this con man. Posted by: DiogenesLamp at October 05, 2012 03:12 PM (0nt6p) _____________________ No. She never admits she is wrong. She doubles down. She has no guiding principles--not even free speech. She gives harbor to Cedarford while deleting other comments for clutter. The only person on the nets to mange that jump through their free speech asshole.

Posted by: tasker at October 05, 2012 11:16 AM (r2PLg)

251 Maybe 830,000 people reported blow jobs

Posted by: Beto at October 05, 2012 03:11 PM (+I8Mq)




Sandy Fluke: Why is everyone looking at me?

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 05, 2012 11:19 AM (1Jaio)

252 If I not only don't know who this outhouse chick is nor do I give a f%^k who she is, does that make me a bad person? If so-guilty as charged.

Posted by: wierd flunky at October 05, 2012 11:23 AM (X+nFp)

253 Shit--I meant that household survey does not get revised for something like 18 months. ugh.

Posted by: tasker at October 05, 2012 11:28 AM (r2PLg)

254 BURN THESE MOTHER FUCKING MATH WITCHES!!

ITS SIMPLE MATH!

HOW DARE YOU ACCUSE THE OBAMA ADFMINISTRATION OF NOT BEING HONEST!

800,000 NEW THREE LETTER WORDS
J  O  B  S
CREATED LAST MONTH!

EAT IT REPUBLICANS!

RECOVERY SUMMER IS FINALLY HERE!

FUNEMPLYOMENT IS UP!
NOTSOFUNEMPLOYMENT IS DOWN!
BIN LADEN IS DEAD
GM IS ALIVE
AND MY PLUGS ARE STILL GROWING

THATS

A

BIG

FUCKING

DEAL!

WE ARE GONNA WIN THIS THING SO Y'ALL DON'T END UP BACK IN CHAINS!

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka wright at October 05, 2012 11:29 AM (ovpNn)

255 Did they actually call 800,000 people to find out if they got jobs??   or was this a sample of 112 phone calls made to the obama campaign offices.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka wright at October 05, 2012 11:30 AM (ovpNn)

256 That stupid site buzzfeed is reporting that the Obama campaign is sending big bird to romney rallies. The big bird doesn't even have a nice costume. "Statement from Obama spokeswoman Lis Smith: 'To catch a glimpse of Big Bird before Romney ends his 43-year career, keep an eye out the for big, friendly bird as he chirps his way through todayÂ’s rally.'" "Sesame WorkshopÂ’s Statement On Our Partnership With PBS" http://tinyurl.com/8nngj39 Yesterday radio news was saying they get most of their revenue from sales of merchandise. http://tinyurl.com/8j2khx3

Posted by: pray for peace at October 05, 2012 11:30 AM (oZfic)

257

I would think this could be checked fairly easily. My company has to report to each state's labor department each person we add to our payroll.  I would think each state labor board tallies up how many hires are reported, and would assume those numbers are available to the public.

 

At one time ADP did it's own statement of how many jobs were created, which was pretty accurate since they handle so many payrolls in this country.

Posted by: the other coyote at October 05, 2012 11:32 AM (yK44T)

258 How can this not come across to the majority of voters as desperate manipulation by the one to hang on to power...

I think they over did it going so big with the massage.

They should have played it slower with the jobs report right before the election being the one to go below 8.

This just looks like a desperate attempt to stop the ROmney momentum after the debate.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka wright at October 05, 2012 11:32 AM (ovpNn)

259 To catch a glimpse of Big Bird before Romney ends his 43-year career, keep an eye out the for big, friendly bird as he chirps his way through todayÂ’s rally

Romney:
Hey Big Bird. Come on over here. (Waits a second.) This fellow is making a $600 million dollars a year. The CEO is making $800,000 a year. Production costs are $50 million a year.

I want them off Corporate Welfare.
And I want this fellow to get a fucking job.

(*) Numbers mostly fake but accurate.

Posted by: Al at October 05, 2012 11:34 AM (MzQOZ)

260 Chris Mathews:  GIVE ME MORE OBAMA COCK OR GIVE ME A SEDATIVE!

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka wright at October 05, 2012 11:36 AM (ovpNn)

261

So  a lot of people are talking about big bird  but they're addressing it wrong.

 

I look at  Big Bird as a potential job opportunity for Baraka after the election.

Posted by: Soona at October 05, 2012 11:39 AM (FhUgE)

262 Cock.

Posted by: Ergrew Cocksuck at October 05, 2012 11:40 AM (aHR5E)

263 The Obama campaign is sending Big Bird to Romney rallies?!! How can these people even claim to be adults?

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at October 05, 2012 11:42 AM (66Ung)

264 After Jack Welch's tweet this morning (the awesome), he doesn't back down, but doubles down: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/10/05/jack-welch-i-wasnt-kidding/

Posted by: no way it's accurate at October 05, 2012 11:43 AM (LpQbZ)

265 Start posting how much the Sesame Street brand makes. That'll shut 'em up.

Posted by: no way it's accurate at October 05, 2012 11:44 AM (LpQbZ)

266 @265 Exactly.
It's corporate welfare. They -luuuuuuve- that line.

And when they whine "But it's a non-profit!" you respond "Well, it's headed by a guy making almost a million dollars a year - more than the President. Looks like someone's making a profit."

Posted by: Al at October 05, 2012 11:47 AM (MzQOZ)

267

Mitt could also say:

 

"At some point...Big Bird has made enough money.

He doesn't need taxpayer money anymore."

 

 

Posted by: wheatie at October 05, 2012 11:55 AM (l5RhJ)

268 LAGGING INDICATOR - I just looked up this term because for about 40 years now, I was told 'Unemployment is a lagging indicator' as an excuse for why unemployment stayed high even though GDP was growing fast. The definition even cites unemployment as being an example. Today, in Obamanomics with a 1.3% GDP, unemployment drops nearly 1/2 a point. Is the economy so freaking awesome that a long term definition needs to be changed? Can we see that super spike in FICA receipts?

Posted by: Schwalbe: The Me-262© at October 05, 2012 11:55 AM (UU0OF)

269 Our entire staff just got laid off at the end of September (including me) due to our organization closing its doors for good.  Looking for work...finding NOTHING.  7.8% is bogus and misleading, but what do you expect from President Chicago?

Posted by: Mr_Write at October 05, 2012 11:56 AM (CLkAH)

270 I wish I hadn't gone over to Americans for Prosperity, their latest commercial is heart retching. (scroll down on the page) It's called The Dinner Table http://americansforprosperity.org/

Posted by: pray for peace at October 05, 2012 12:03 PM (oZfic)

271

268.... Can we see that super spike in FICA receipts?

 

And the trouble with even that figure...is all the Govt Jobs that they padded their new figures with.

 

The 'revenue' from Govt Jobs is not new revenue....it's recycled tax dollars.

Or, recycled borrowed money.

 

The lead article over at Breitbart is about this...how they used an increase in Govt Jobs, to inflate these new unemployment numbers.

They were desperate to show that 'unemployment went down'.

 

But...adding new jobs to Govt Payrolls only makes things worse!

It will take more money to keep those jobs going...and there are not enough jobs out in the private sector to pay for the ones that were already there!

 

Posted by: wheatie at October 05, 2012 12:06 PM (l5RhJ)

272 I'm SURE there were 873,000 jobs added last month; that's why durable goods orders tanked.  Wait, no...

Posted by: Hari Seldon, Psychohistorian at October 05, 2012 12:06 PM (r2z3p)

273 Fake as tits on a toilet seat

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka wright at October 05, 2012 12:12 PM (ovpNn)

274 7 POINT NILIENE

BAMBOOZLING AND JIVING!

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka wright at October 05, 2012 12:13 PM (ovpNn)

275 From an earlier commenter:

I am going to repost this note from ZH just to make sure everybody catches it:

Here's a peculiar statistical aberration:
Household Survey people employed: +873,000
Part-time jobs for economic reasons: +582,000

-> 582,000 divided by 873,000 = 0.666666666666*

Aka: precisely two thirds. Whatever are the odds... Goalseeking much

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 05, 2012 10:39 AM (PHb2k)

Posted by: mister hanky at October 05, 2012 12:18 PM (vDl/w)

276 #275 Shitty (literally) sock off.

Posted by: andycanuck at October 05, 2012 12:19 PM (vDl/w)

277 Just wait. When the SCOAMF gets four more years, unemployment will go down to negative 3%, meaning that not only will EVERYONE have a job, but so will most fetuses.

Posted by: Milesdei at October 05, 2012 12:19 PM (Iljdt)

278 275 Conspiracy, coincidence, what's the big deal? We're all friends right?

Posted by: wierd flunky at October 05, 2012 12:22 PM (X+nFp)

279 277 J not only will EVERYONE have a job, but so will most fetuses.

Posted by: Milesdei at October 05, 2012 04:19 PM (Iljdt)


Would that not constitute a part time job, as they will be terminated before benefits kick in?

Posted by: Red Shirt at October 05, 2012 12:25 PM (FIDMq)

280 174 Prediction: Sometime in December or January--safely after the election, that is--BLS will quietly revise the U3 number upward a couple of notches, and it will turn out that, gee, it really was still around 8.1% after all. They will blame "sampling errors" or some such. They just have to get through November, that's all.

No, I'm not a conspiracy theorist. I just don't trust anything that comes out of this Administration. Anything. Posted by: Hayabusa at October 05, 2012 02:44 PM

The MBM is already telling folks to "trust the numbers, the government doesn't lie, these are EXPERTS, and only racist right wing conspiracy theorists are doubting"

USA Today is calling skeptics "conspiracy wackos"
 

Posted by: kbdabear at October 05, 2012 12:28 PM (wwsoB)

281 275 From an earlier commenter: I am going to repost this note from ZH just to make sure everybody catches it: Here's a peculiar statistical aberration: Household Survey people employed: +873,000 Part-time jobs for economic reasons: +582,000 -> 582,000 divided by 873,000 = 0.666666666666* Aka: precisely two thirds. Whatever are the odds... Goalseeking much Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 05, 2012 10:39 AM (PHb2k) I'm lame so can you explain the significance of the math above?

Posted by: Sunny at October 05, 2012 12:30 PM (Xnxty)

282

-- As one guy asked on Twitter -- did payroll taxes jump up past month? --

 

While they were higher than in August, it was due solely to the payment of the quarterly estimated taxes by us self-employed.  Taxes were lower than they were in September 2011, despite "3 million" additional employed people paying taxes.

Posted by: steveegg at October 05, 2012 12:30 PM (o44nj)

283 So can anyone name the specific Obama policies that has accomplished this great feat ??? Crickets from the mainstrean media ................

Posted by: Frogger MacGhee at October 05, 2012 12:35 PM (lJ3rV)

284 @Sunny,

Large real numbers -never- come out to the nice fractions of math class. "0.66666666..." is exactly 2/3. It is -like- someone said "What would a good ratio be? Hmm. 2/3. Well 2/3 would mean 582,000."

There's nothing wrong with a number in that -ballpark necessarily. But hitting any low-integer fraction -is- an eyebrow-raising oddity.

But not proof.

Posted by: Al at October 05, 2012 12:39 PM (MzQOZ)

285 I almost drove into a tree when I heard these numbers on the radio this morning.  But I've worked for state govt. for 18 years, and I know for a fact they can massage the numbers if they want to.  I'm sure it's no different for the Feds.

I also know this 7.8 is completely ridiculous.  I'm just surprised that so many others (that are not on the right) are saying so too.

Posted by: small town girl at October 05, 2012 12:47 PM (TY9RT)

286 Don't worry--gas is now so expensive in CA that we can't afford to go to work.

Win-win.

Posted by: PJ at October 05, 2012 12:57 PM (DQHjw)

287 Just a CA gas station sign. (Washington Examiner.) http://goo.gl/syiwf

Posted by: Scobface at October 05, 2012 01:27 PM (IoNBC)

288 Al@ 284: I thought you were getting at the deal-with-the-devil theory. Both 582,000 and 873,000 have three significant figures, therefore 0.66666666... should be cut off as 0.666. (I am kidding, I promise.)

Posted by: JPS at October 05, 2012 01:27 PM (7XP0x)

289 I know nothing, but could this be related to Obama's ditching of the welfare work requirement? You know, telling states they can send out checks if their unemployment or some statistic is good enough, encouraging states to loosen the definition of a job, so that cruising the internet from home is considered 'computer training'? I think the timing is about right.

Posted by: waelse1 at October 05, 2012 01:56 PM (+iyoX)

290 O/T, but I just saw the price of Gas in our chevron station here in Sacramento.  It is $4.65 for regular.  OMG!!!!

Posted by: Timothy Pruett at October 05, 2012 02:06 PM (J1D9e)

291 Someone forgot to tell our CEO that we should be hiring...we are preparing for up to 4% layoffs = 2000 people

Posted by: PetroE at October 05, 2012 03:40 PM (TMp1x)

292

114000 jobs created in Sepetmber and unemployment goes down 0.3 percent nationwide. A real post-debate miracle! Fortunately there remain two more debates so you migth expect full employment after the las one, and then coronate king barry.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." Mark Twain.

Posted by: Andrés Markovits at October 05, 2012 04:11 PM (umd1/)

293 Greetings I am new to this forum.  It has occured to me though that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has an interesting abbreviation BLS.  Now looking at the abbreviation we see that 2/3 of the lettesr comprise of BS.  I think that explains today's figures.

Posted by: mistral at October 05, 2012 05:49 PM (SEtKS)

294 Ace ... oy. Gallup is a POLL. BLS is a SURVEY. Schnapples to oranges, bud. You guys have just lost it; and if that looks like a double entendre, well, there you are. I remember, Ace, you didn't want anything to do with the Birthers (except as a joke), and TO YOUR CREDIT a website that COULD have turned into a harder-edged, funner Wing Nut Daily ... didn't. Also, AoSHQ is to be commended, and it doesn't get credited enough for this, with staying away from overt anti-blah racist stuff. So that's all good. But now you want to dive headfirst into to foam ball room at Jobberism Central? It's just like at Chuck E. Cheese, Ace: they's lotsa baaaaaad cooties floating around among those colored funballs. So, maybe this report is a statistical outlier, or the 'survey' equivalent of it. Maybe not, but ... maybe. So, whattya gonna do about all the times when the BLS report outliers DOWN? Which, it appears happens just as often, as one might expect. Hey, you guys want to stick with paranoid as a coping mechanism, knock yourselves out: but that's exactly what you'll end up doing.

Posted by: Rex the Wonder God at October 05, 2012 10:42 PM (vahvH)

295 It's "magical" that 114,000 jobs ended up going to 873,000 people.  Maybe:

- The Keebler Elves gave jobs to all those people.
- The Unicorn Fart gas capture industry is booming.
- Sauron is back and he needs help rebuilding Mordor.
- A new, massive Pixie Dust strike was made and the mines are hiring.
- The stimulus program has finally gotten around to Oz and they're re-paving the Yellow Brick Road.

Feel free to add to this...


Posted by: Jaylord at October 06, 2012 09:36 AM (Y6qC4)

Hide Comments | Add Comment | Refresh | Top

Comments are disabled. Post is locked.
232kb generated in CPU 0.1825, elapsed 0.3438 seconds.
64 queries taking 0.2831 seconds, 423 records returned.
Powered by Minx 1.1.6c-pink.

Support





Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!


Contact

Change the At to "@" and the DOT to "."




Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!


Search Thingy



Archives

Monthly Traffic

  • Pages: 49644
  • Files: 413
  • Bytes: 1416.5M
  • CPU Time: 70:07
  • Queries: 1579899

Content

  • Posts: 22824
  • Comments: 5953260

Feeds


RSS 2.0 Atom 1.0