May 15, 2012
— DrewM Our resident poll addict, CAC, covered this last night but I think it deserves some prime time attention.
Romney leads overall 46% to 43% among registered voters but the real treat is the breakdown among women.
Romney leads among women by two points [46%-44%]. This is a dramatic turnaround from even a few weeks ago, when the Left was singing the dopey "war on women" refrain from every rooftop. I guess it didn't really stick. Think Progress' Judd Legum tweeted that if Romney wins women in the fall, his margin of victory overall will be impressive. Indeed. Score one for stay-at-home moms, at least for the moment.
Poor little Julia hit hardest.
Now, this is May, this poll could very well be an outlier, maybe they over-sampled married women where Romney has led before (or conversely maybe other polls have over-sampled single women who give Obama his traditional advantage with women) and a million other things. Did I mention it's May?
I can't find the link but someone on Twitter was watching Chuck Todd's daily Obama ad show on MSNBC and said Obama spokestool Stephanie Cutter was on attacking the methodology of this poll. Yes, those darn rightwing nut jobs at CBS/New York Times. Funny but I don't recall her slamming polls that showed Obama up thanks to ridiculously over-sampling Democrats.
They need the narrative to be "Romney hates women and they hate him back". It was never true but if polling starts showing it, they know they are in big, big trouble.
Added: Here's the Cutter/Todd conversation on the "bias" in this poll.
Chuck Todd: “This is such a resounding number, it’s within any margin of error you want to create… That’s a lot of people saying he did this for politics.”Cutter: “We can’t put the methodology of that poll aside, because the methodology was significantly biased–”
Todd: “You think this is so flawed, that this number–”
Cutter: “This is a biased sample.”
Todd: “This three to one margin is somehow going to shrink down the other way?”
Cutter: “I don’t want to go through methodology on your show. I think your readers – I think your viewers would be pretty bored by it.”
Todd: “They’re junkies. They like this sample.”
Cutter: “They sampled a biased sample, so they re-biased the same sample. I think that the results of that poll are probably pretty flawed.”
Problem for Team Stupid: The partisan breakdown is the same as last month's CBS/NYT poll which showed an Obama lead.
So this is more along the lines of "a chew toy to enjoy and keep an eye on" then a sign it's in the bag but still...enjoy.
Posted by: DrewM at
06:30 AM
| Comments (174)
Post contains 452 words, total size 3 kb.
Posted by: soothie at May 15, 2012 06:33 AM (YO+5B)
They also despise men, too. As well as whites, blacks, hispanics, gays, etc.
All they've got is hate.
Posted by: BeckoningChasm at May 15, 2012 06:34 AM (DuH+r)
Gee, I never realized how expensive Botox was: http://is.gd/nNuTiy
Posted by: Gerry at May 15, 2012 06:35 AM (pkQix)
Posted by: soothie at May 15, 2012 06:35 AM (xIzGn)
Posted by: toby928© at May 15, 2012 06:35 AM (NG097)
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 15, 2012 06:36 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: Tom Brokaw at May 15, 2012 06:37 AM (rX1N2)
Posted by: soothie at May 15, 2012 06:37 AM (LVtr+)
Posted by: Uncledave at May 15, 2012 06:37 AM (nJ32z)
Al those cute political tricks are only going to fool a few, and make the rest turn on you.
Posted by: Islamic Rage Boy at May 15, 2012 06:38 AM (e8kgV)
Isn't there a huge split between single women and married women though? Also the working assumption has been that the split is about abortion rights and iirc Gen Y and younger are actually more pro-life than mid-Gen X and up.
See also my pet theory that grocery prices are affecting this across the spectrum.
I still support the repeal of the 19th amendment, though.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 06:38 AM (Gk3SS)
Posted by: toby928© at May 15, 2012 06:39 AM (NG097)
Posted by: nevergiveup at May 15, 2012 06:39 AM (05RcU)
Posted by: Joffen, fucking sunshine patriot at May 15, 2012 06:39 AM (+ZI77)
Posted by: toby928© at May 15, 2012 06:40 AM (NG097)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 06:40 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: nevergiveup at May 15, 2012 10:36 AM (05RcU)
If only they saw through him in 2008....
Posted by: Tami at May 15, 2012 06:41 AM (X6akg)
I suspect that will be more difficult than dragging him over the finish line in November.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 06:41 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: soothie at May 15, 2012 06:41 AM (ZgBZU)
Posted by: GnuBreed at May 15, 2012 06:41 AM (ccXZP)
Posted by: Roy at May 15, 2012 06:44 AM (VndSC)
Does anyone have any good information on what grocery prices had been doing right around the times of the elections going back to Ford? Because I would not be surprised to find a high correlation between rapidly increasing Food (and gas) prices and incumbents not winning re-election.
That theory goes to pot, however, if (for example) gas and grocery prices were through the roof in 1996 or 2004.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 06:45 AM (8y9MW)
50% of women are of below average IQ and shouldn't be allowed to vote. There's a sentence that ended any hope of a political career BTW. Same can be said for the population at large, so my proposal is to limit voting to those with skin in the game.
Posted by: Jimmah at May 15, 2012 06:45 AM (UpwlP)
Romney seems to be unencumbered by any strong political philosophy, but he is a successful businessman used to making the rational decision based on the data (there is no other way to be successful in his former field).
I hope that he will look at our fiscal crisis and make rational moves.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at May 15, 2012 06:45 AM (nEUpB)
>>>See also my pet theory that grocery prices are affecting this across the spectrum.<<<
This. Definitely a factor I think. Since I'm a right-wing misogynistic bastard who's fighting his own personal war on women, my wife does the grocery shopping in Chez Lurking Canuck. I've been getting a weekly price breakdown for a few years now.
I can't imagine it won't move a decent chunk of votes rightward.
Posted by: Lurking Canuck at May 15, 2012 06:46 AM (NF2Bf)
The problem is that, once you're president, rational for you, and rational for the nation don't always line up.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 06:46 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: nevergiveup at May 15, 2012 06:47 AM (05RcU)
I know there's a chart out there showing an almost exact inverse relationship between gas prices and Presidential approval ratings. I believe that goes back at least a few decades.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 06:47 AM (Gk3SS)
Posted by: Lauren at May 15, 2012 06:47 AM (bV8xV)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012
Two words: Dole and Kerry.
Posted by: Roy at May 15, 2012 06:47 AM (VndSC)
Point of order. About 7% of the country are idiots. The other 45% are malignantly evil.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 06:47 AM (8y9MW)
That's the politest way I've ever seen that put. I am going to libertas d'alex that.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 06:49 AM (Gk3SS)
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 15, 2012 06:49 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: nevergiveup at May 15, 2012 10:47 AM (05RcU)
I wish only 52% of my family were idiots.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at May 15, 2012 06:49 AM (nEUpB)
Posted by: soothie at May 15, 2012 06:50 AM (YO+5B)
I don't think so.
I don't remember the Dole campaign very well (let's see... in 96 I would have been a Sophomore. In High School: so I wasn't really paying attention). But the Kerry campaign was bad, but not as bad as I think we're remembering it.
The 2004 election might also be exempt from consideration because of other factors (an ongoing war, for instance), but I'd like to see those specific inflation (of food and energy) starting in the mid-60s.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 06:50 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Peregrine Took, Thane of the Tea Party Shire at May 15, 2012 06:50 AM (Mwakv)
42 I do think a lot of women were very turned off by the creepy "Julia" campaign.
I think a lot of women never even heard of it. But they did hear the May jobs report.
Posted by: Roy at May 15, 2012 06:52 AM (VndSC)
If a majority of women vote against obama I promise to not continue to say that they are stupid. We'll see.
Posted by: Dagny at May 15, 2012 06:52 AM (JoL4S)
$.03/usage in polite conversation, but unlimited free usage when combined with any disparaging comment about Obama.
For instance:
"Romney may be unencumbered by any strong political philosophy, but Obama is a cocksucking, anti-American piece-of-shit who hates us for being the greatest country in history, and wants to drag us down into the mud with his liberation-theology and Marxist buddies."
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at May 15, 2012 06:52 AM (nEUpB)
Posted by: Jimmah at May 15, 2012 06:52 AM (UpwlP)
Posted by: BlackOrchid at May 15, 2012 06:52 AM (SB0V2)
That I could agree with.
Someone go get me a sammich. Really soft bread.
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ braucht ein Bier at May 15, 2012 06:52 AM (/kI1Q)
-------------------------------
I'd sure like to think that....being a woman and all. But for the last 4 years, I've been absolutely amazed at the women who don't see straight through this lying sack o'shit. His lack of character, his lying, his deceit, his hatred for America just oozes so obviously out of his pores. Women are supposed to have this great intuition, or so I've always thought. Yet there were/are so many that don't see this POS for what he is. I really, really pray this isn't an outlier, because if this is a trend....his jug ears are cooked.
Love the pic at Drudge, btw. If only there could be a crickets soundtrack playing on a loop.
Posted by: Lady in Black at May 15, 2012 06:53 AM (tc1fB)
Posted by: BlackOrchid at May 15, 2012 06:53 AM (SB0V2)
Cutter: “I don’t want to go through methodology on your show. I think your readers – I think your viewers would be pretty bored by it.”
In other words, "Of COURSE it's biased, and no I'm not going to tell you how. You just have to take my expert, unbiased opinion!"
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 15, 2012 06:53 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: Jimmah at May 15, 2012 06:54 AM (UpwlP)
I must deduct style points for failure to mention dog eating and girl pushing.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 06:54 AM (Gk3SS)
Posted by: Jimbo at May 15, 2012 06:54 AM (O3R/2)
Posted by: Jay Carney:Press Secretary at May 15, 2012 06:54 AM (c3mby)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at May 15, 2012 06:55 AM (Ho2rs)
Dream big, my friends.
You can dream it, but it ain't happening.
However, I DO think that black turnout will be much lower than normal because of people not happy about replacing Adam and Eve with Adam and Steve.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at May 15, 2012 06:55 AM (e0xKF)
Half an hour reading any agony aunt columnist should dispel that myth about women having superior insight into other people pretty quick.
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ braucht ein Bier at May 15, 2012 06:55 AM (/kI1Q)
Posted by: Jay Carney at May 15, 2012 06:55 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: rockmom at May 15, 2012 06:56 AM (NYnoe)
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ braucht ein Bier at May 15, 2012 10:55 AM (/kI1Q)
Sing it, sister.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 15, 2012 06:56 AM (4df7R)
So these samples also depend heavily on race of those polled. BTW he lost among white men 41 to 57.
And I can guarantee that those white men and women were die-hard yellow dog Democrats.
Posted by: Vic at May 15, 2012 06:57 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: Lincolntf at May 15, 2012 06:57 AM (hiMsy)
To expand on @47:
The May job report was I think very devastating for Obama. The biggest thing was the narrative that the reason that the UE rate dropped was due to people "giving up" looking for jobs. Not lay-offs, but just throwing in the towel. That is psychologically hard to stomach. It has to hurt Obama's approval rating. Americans never "give up".
Posted by: Roy at May 15, 2012 06:58 AM (VndSC)
Posted by: Jimmah at May 15, 2012 10:55 AM (UpwlP)
Well, to be fair, he's from Vermont. All you need to become a doctor in Vermont is an acre of land and at least one cow.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 15, 2012 06:58 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: huerfano at May 15, 2012 06:58 AM (bAGA/)
To be clear, the cow must be of a bovine species. Your wife doesn't count.
{ducks. hides}
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 06:59 AM (8y9MW)
Flyover Country FTW!!!
Posted by: huerfano at May 15, 2012 06:59 AM (bAGA/)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 07:00 AM (8y9MW)
To be clear, the cow must be of a bovine species. Your wife doesn't count.
{ducks. hides}
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 10:59 AM (8y9MW)
lol!
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 15, 2012 07:00 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: Jean at May 15, 2012 07:00 AM (WkuV6)
Exactly. Yes, it's only May, but the fact that the trends are so bad for O already is very encouraging.
I said almost a year ago that I thought many of you were going to be very pleasantly surprised to find out where Romney's real political center is, and I stand by that.
"Liawatha" is right up there with Fauxcahontas. I love the internets.
Posted by: pep at May 15, 2012 07:00 AM (YXmuI)
Posted by: Dagny at May 15, 2012 07:00 AM (JoL4S)
We have actual content!
Posted by: Max Power at May 15, 2012 10:59 AM (+wxCD)
SHHHH!! Don't draw attention to it! You might scare it away!
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 15, 2012 07:00 AM (4df7R)
You got to start with the fact that women are genetically predisposed to seek protection for their offspring. The Democrats over the years have done a damned good job of convincing many that government was the answer by paying the low income and poverty women money and promising those above that those same benefits would be there if they ever fell on hard times.
Well, now times are tough and guess what? Those women who voted Dem on those promises are finding their husband is out of work or they've lost their job and they still don't qualify for any thing near enough to survive.
Meanwhile,she sees the same people who were living on welfare still on welfare still getting their checks and she's getting nothing.
They're realizing in tough times, you don't want a beta-male bureaucrat, you want an alpha-male bastard.
And all the attacks on Romney play right into that. And especially the attacks on Ann. Her man took care of her and her kids.
Their man, the JEF and his government drones, hasn't done a damned thing for her.
Posted by: jimmuy at May 15, 2012 07:00 AM (kSaUf)
Posted by: BlackOrchid at May 15, 2012 10:53 AM (SB0V2)
Hey, what have you got against hairy dudes?!
Posted by: joncelli, thinking about trimming his back hair again at May 15, 2012 07:01 AM (RD7QR)
Polls that are not majority Democrat are biased.
Repeat as necessary until election night when the global slackjaw market will be cornered.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at May 15, 2012 07:02 AM (B+qrE)
Romney is the presumptive nominee.
Wait until the convention. That's when the bounce happens, as long as they forgo any Styrofoam Greek columns.
The upside is that we're seeing presumptive bounces.
Posted by: jwb7605 at May 15, 2012 07:02 AM (Qxe/p)
-------------------------
Hey, maybe it's a turning point?! {praying wishing hoping} Dear God, please release my sisters from their dumbassery, Amen.
Posted by: Lady in Black at May 15, 2012 07:02 AM (tc1fB)
Posted by: Andrew Sullivan at May 15, 2012 07:03 AM (7vSU0)
So the Dems carrying women is really only true for minority women. But the Dems are losing among white men more than white women.
Posted by: Vic at May 15, 2012 07:03 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at May 15, 2012 10:55 AM (Ho2rs)
Sing it sister. Exactly.
Posted by: Dagny at May 15, 2012 07:03 AM (JoL4S)
Posted by: Uncledave at May 15, 2012 07:04 AM (nJ32z)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at May 15, 2012 10:55 AM (Ho2rs)
My woman votes whatever damned way I tell her to vote!
(thank God she doesn't read this blog)
Posted by: Hedgehog at May 15, 2012 07:04 AM (3jGS1)
http://is.gd/d55G1e
FTA: In fact, Michelle was so paranoid of all the women working near her husband that she reportedly asked her “inner circle” to keep an eye on any girl that Barack got “touchy” with.
Girls named "Larry" and "Reggie." Right.
I would watch an Oprah special where SCOAMF came out to her, I really would. What kind of pudding goes with tequila?
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ braucht ein Bier at May 15, 2012 07:04 AM (/kI1Q)
They're not stupid, Dagny, they'd just rather be dependents - and better Sweet Govt than some hairy dude
Folliculy blessed, please.
Posted by: The Council for Hirsute Morons at May 15, 2012 07:05 AM (Br0dO)
Posted by: Jimmah at May 15, 2012 07:05 AM (UpwlP)
Posted by: soothie at May 15, 2012 07:05 AM (8dspl)
Posted by: Beefy Meatball at May 15, 2012 11:03 AM (yn6XZ)
I am reminded of the late, great Jerry Clower's riff on women's liberation: "Let me tell you about me and momma...."
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at May 15, 2012 07:05 AM (B+qrE)
Romney, unlike O, understands what class looks like. I'm pretty sure he has never had spinny rims on his car either.
Posted by: pep at May 15, 2012 07:05 AM (YXmuI)
The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services rates M[edicare] A[dvantage] plans on a system of one to five stars, depending on how the plans satisfy certain criteria.
Under ObamaCare, beginning in 2015 plans that achieve four- and five-star ratings are eligible for bonuses, which can boost an insurer's bottom line, and rebates that the insurers must use to expand benefits for plan enrollees.
According to CMS, 71% of MA enrollees choose plans with ratings of three stars or less. Only 20% are in plans rated four stars, and 9% are in five-star plans.
"Medicare Advantage is a program that is used disproportionately by low-income and minority seniors," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of AAF and former head of the Congressional Budget Office. "It has been a program that has matched their preferences for getting Medicare. The kinds of plans that CMS likes, the four-star and higher plans, aren't the ones that low-income seniors are taking up."
The amount of bonuses and rebates that the four- and five-star plans receive will be based on future enrollment in those plans. This gives insurers an incentive to push higher enrollment into those plans, since it will be better for their bottom lines, says Holtz-Eakin. Insurers will also have an incentive to phase out plans rated three stars or less to increase the likelihood that enrollees in those plans will instead choose the four- and five-star plans.
Posted by: Islamic Rage Boy at May 15, 2012 07:06 AM (e8kgV)
Posted by: weew at May 15, 2012 07:06 AM (3Ch9E)
It's less that hairy dudes are bad than that Govt is never late with the child support, and doesn't get jealous of your other baby daddies.
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ braucht ein Bier at May 15, 2012 07:08 AM (/kI1Q)
Posted by: Schwalbe: The Me-262© at May 15, 2012 07:09 AM (UU0OF)
tinyurl.com/78mgmfs
ticker guy notices 'seasonal adjustments' are on the rise year over year.
Posted by: Methos at May 15, 2012 07:09 AM (6LvlL)
I think we hear about tipping points a bit too much, so some of us are wary, but the D party has been harmful toward women for a long long time. It's possible the truth is outing.
I mean, this is the party of Kennedy (all of them), Clinton, Edwards and the clown currently occupying the White House. Time to see the world as it really is... ladies. (that's a Demitri Martin gag, not me being sexist)
Posted by: BurtTC at May 15, 2012 07:09 AM (TOk1P)
Posted by: BlackOrchid at May 15, 2012 07:09 AM (SB0V2)
So mouth-breathing assholes who took out 110% mortgages they knew they couldn't repay get to vote, and renting-while-saving-up-a-down-payment-while-paying-huge-income-taxes prudent folks don't? That's what you want?
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ braucht ein Bier at May 15, 2012 07:10 AM (/kI1Q)
the secret to his popularity through hard times is that he is not melodramatic, sensitive, vulnerable and changeable. Instead, he is self-disciplined, traditional and a bit formal.
Obama has displayed a kind of ESPN masculinity: postfeminist in his values, but also thoroughly traditional in style — hypercompetitive, restrained, not given to self-doubt, rarely self-indulgent.
Dang, I thought we had this one.
Posted by: pep at May 15, 2012 07:10 AM (YXmuI)
Posted by: BlackOrchid at May 15, 2012 07:10 AM (SB0V2)
This goes hand in hand with how hilarious I find it that conservatives are having great glee with the twitter hashtags. How dare the flyovers speak up!
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 07:11 AM (Gk3SS)
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ braucht ein Bier at May 15, 2012 11:08 AM (/kI1Q)
Yeah, and they're nowhere near as reliable as sweaty guys!
Posted by: joncelli, blessed with hair and sweat too at May 15, 2012 07:11 AM (RD7QR)
I am reminded of the late, great Jerry Clower's riff on women's liberation: "Let me tell you about me and momma....<<<
That was a great bit. "Momma don't want you messin' with her deal."
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at May 15, 2012 07:11 AM (CF4Y5)
Does anyone have any good information on what grocery prices had been doing right around the times of the elections going back to Ford? Because I would not be surprised to find a high correlation between rapidly increasing Food (and gas) prices and incumbents not winning re-election.
That theory goes to pot, however, if (for example) gas and grocery prices were through the roof in 1996 or 2004.
*
*
As far as I'm concerned, grocery prices have been through the roof ever since I left home in Carter's time. And they've never really come down. (O'course, I'm well known for being cheap.)
Gas was .55/gal. (yes, 55 cents) in 1978 or so. Shot up to 1.00/gal in '79. Held at a little over a dollar for a looong time, then sprang up like a startled antelope at the time of Hurricane Katrina (from $1.50 to $2.50 in a few days) and have been sailing up like a hot air balloon ever since. Yes, I remember the fall in 2008 from 4.00 back into the 2.80 range, but it didn't last, thanks to the SCOAMF.
Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius at May 15, 2012 07:11 AM (exvgC)
Count me on the side that says "proof of net payment of income-tax." That is, including any refund received, you still actually net paid money to the US Treasury the previous year.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 07:12 AM (8y9MW)
I wish people had to pass a current event test before they could vote, but then I'm kind of a fascist myself.
Posted by: BeckoningChasm at May 15, 2012 07:12 AM (DuH+r)
We should go back to the ownership of real estate requirement.
Posted by: Jimbo at May 15, 2012 11:08 AM (O3R/2)
I'd favor that, but let's not forget there are a LOT of renters out there (self included), especially in the current economic climate. I have had some dumbass landlords who I wouldn't trust to take a survey about bacon, let alone vote for leader of the free world.
But there must be SOME universal -- or near universal -- thing that would tie together all those people with "skin in the game" and make them a reliable cohort for political awareness. i just don't know what that would be.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 15, 2012 07:12 AM (4df7R)
Oh, if a dreamboat like George Clooney loves Obama, women will come back. Women love Clooney. Just not enough to fill theater seats to his movies other than Oceans sequels
Posted by: kbdabear at May 15, 2012 07:12 AM (Y+DPZ)
Posted by: blaster at May 15, 2012 07:13 AM (7vSU0)
Posted by: BlackOrchid at May 15, 2012 07:13 AM (SB0V2)
Posted by: Schwalbe: The Me-262© at May 15, 2012 11:09 AM (UU0OF)
You clearly haven't read David Brooks' latest fawning editorial about Teh Won. Did you know the SCOAMT has redefined manliness?
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 15, 2012 07:13 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: Right wing Jackelope of DOOM at May 15, 2012 07:14 AM (E55AK)
Well, yes, but people adjust, and some inflation is probably necessary. I'm talking about relative to where they were, say, just a year prior. In what direction (and how quickly) were food and energy prices moving?
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 07:14 AM (8y9MW)
116 -
That's a good question. I think the time is ripe, but it would be wishful thinking to believe they'll abandon Obama now that he's been exposed for the fraud he is.
Posted by: BurtTC at May 15, 2012 07:14 AM (TOk1P)
Yeah. Because the guy underwater will be foreclosed upon, in due time, and prudent will eventually buy a lot to build upon.
Posted by: Jimbo at May 15, 2012 07:14 AM (O3R/2)
Taxation. Prove that you paid income tax (made a net payment), or no vote for you.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 07:16 AM (8y9MW)
he's worse than the dog
plus the state of the toilet!
am starting to think we need two master baths Posted by: BlackOrchid at May 15, 2012 11:09 AM (SB0V2)
I adore my hairy dude. In fact, I can't imagine getting anywhere near one of those ghey manscaped guys. However, the second he leaves on a trip, I revel in my hair-free bathroom.
Posted by: Dagny at May 15, 2012 07:17 AM (JoL4S)
Not always true, especially in big cities. The nature of the real estate market has changed, so ownership of land is not the indicator of prudence it once was.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 15, 2012 07:17 AM (8y9MW)
89 -
I'm not going to ask you to disclose personal information, but I'm going to assume she's good at other things, and not just making sammiches.
Posted by: BurtTC at May 15, 2012 07:17 AM (TOk1P)
Posted by: kbdabear at May 15, 2012 11:12 AM (Y+DPZ)
I will NEVER EVER understand my fellow women's obsession with George Clooney. WTH is attractive about him? I mean that, seriously. He's got a nice enough face, but I would never call him drop-dead gorgeous. Yet that's how he's always described. Am I missing something?
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 15, 2012 07:17 AM (4df7R)
get it wrong, you're vapor (kidding!)
Posted by: BlackOrchid at May 15, 2012 11:13 AM (SB0V2)
lol! I like it!
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 15, 2012 07:18 AM (4df7R)
Do you have a right to rich peoples money?
No answers counted.
Yes answer shredded.
Posted by: Buzzsaw at May 15, 2012 07:19 AM (tf9Ne)
============
Blacks participated at 60% in 2008.
Blacks are (roughly) 13% of the US population of (roughly) 300 million.
So, 39 million blacks total @ 60% participation = 23.4 million votes total; @ 98% means the JEF got 22.932 million black votes in 2008.
Drop that down to 2004's 55% participation and you get 21.450 million--a loss of 1.482 million total black votes.
Plug in 98% to the JEF's again and the JEF will have 1.911 million LESS votes this time.
Drop that to a mere 95% of their vote, and the JEF will have 2.555 million LESS votes.
2.5 million fewer votes already. That's probably the best case scenario with the gay marriage shit. How many states the JEF barely won are now out of reach? Plug that 2.5million into the percentage of the black population in swing states and subtract that from his 2008 totals.
That is why the whole White House smells like stale piss and sweat these days. The numbers they need to win just aren't there.
Posted by: jimmuy at May 15, 2012 07:21 AM (kSaUf)
I have no idea what that even means. Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) I think you put batteries in it.
Posted by: Roy at May 15, 2012 07:22 AM (VndSC)
But that wasn't Obama's fault, oh no, it was that eeevvvilll Bush
But it goes down 20 cents in April, and Assholerod puts out sarcastic comments complaining that we aren't thanking Obama for that little drop which is well within seasonal ranges
So, the MBM parrots that it wasn't the SCOAMF's fault that it cost $22.50 to fill a 15 gallon tank on 1/09 but $60 to fill it on 1/12, but where's our gratitude that it now costs $55
Posted by: kbdabear at May 15, 2012 07:23 AM (Y+DPZ)
Posted by: JDTAY at May 15, 2012 07:23 AM (sFP59)
I am reminded of the late, great Jerry Clower's riff on women's liberation: "Let me tell you about me and momma....<<<
That was a great bit. "Momma don't want you messin' with her deal."
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at May 15, 2012 11:11 AM (CF4Y5)
Wow - a Jerry Clower reference.
Makes my old Mississippian heart glad to see that..
Posted by: Mr Wonderful at May 15, 2012 07:23 AM (z8HSj)
Posted by: blaster at May 15, 2012 07:24 AM (7vSU0)
In SC you had to own 50 acres to vote and 200 acres to be a member of the local legislature.
Posted by: Vic at May 15, 2012 07:24 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: Lincolntf at May 15, 2012 07:24 AM (hiMsy)
Posted by: USA Today at May 15, 2012 07:25 AM (cv5Iw)
Thomas Edsall seems to draw on the meme that all "rich" folks are Republicans.
If that's so, just who were all those folks that Obama hit up for a million dollars the other night ? .. Republicans ?? LOL
Otherwise, I just might not have much to complain about with “Higher Social Class Predicts Increased Unethical Behavior.”
"The paper, by Paul K. Piff of the University of California, Berkeley, and four colleagues, reports that members of the upper class are more likely than others to behave unethically, to lie during negotiations, to drive illegally and to cheat when competing for a prize."
Let's see that certainly sounds a lot like Lindsay Lohan (D-Hollywood) and many of the Hollywood crowd who certainly aren't dominated by Republicans.
Also, Democrats like to talk about Wall Street like it is dominated by Republicans. The face of Wall Street this past week was Jamie Dimon (D-JPMorgan). He isn't just a Democrat, but a lifetime Democrat.
It must be nice that when your side is screwing up, you just blame the other guys.
Posted by: Islamic Rage Boy at May 15, 2012 07:28 AM (e8kgV)
Posted by: Vic at May 15, 2012 07:29 AM (YdQQY)
Posted by: Mrs. Warner Wolf at May 15, 2012 07:30 AM (SO2Q8)
Posted by: Jean at May 15, 2012 07:31 AM (WkuV6)
Posted by: JDTAY at May 15, 2012 11:23 AM (sFP59)
Sorry... but history does not bere out the idea of unlimited Democracy being a good thing... eventualy, as we are now seeing play out in France, enough of the electorate decides they can vote themselves a 'free lunch'.
Or... in various countries in the Middle East... where you have the majority of people of a certain religion, who suddenly vote to have that religions laws take precedence, even to the point of outlawing other relgions...
The Founders knew this... and debated it... and I think came up with a good solution, that we have mucked up since.
Posted by: Romeo13 at May 15, 2012 07:34 AM (lZBBB)
155 -
I know a married white woman who will never vote Republican. When she was younger she worked at a law firm, and in her mind they were all a bunch of rich white Republicans. No doubt she got her tushie squeezed and her bongos honked a time or two, so for the rest of her life she'll associate the R party with evil.
I can almost guarantee those people were Democrats, but she'll never ever believe anything different.
As I said earlier, you can't be reasoned out of a position you didn't use reason to get into in the first place.
Posted by: BurtTC at May 15, 2012 07:34 AM (TOk1P)
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter"
If you're missing it, I am, too. However, he's such a douchebag that I would never find him attractive.
Posted by: Hobbitopoly at May 15, 2012 07:35 AM (PcKH8)
Posted by: jimmuy at May 15, 2012 11:21 AM (kSaUf)
The 'reluctance' of dems to be enthusiastic is part... but you are seeing a lot of on the ground TEA party types talking their neighbors into voting as well...
Even here in California... the Conservatives are much more energized this election, than the Liberals... (not at the party level, they are clueless, but out in the real world).
Posted by: Romeo13 at May 15, 2012 07:37 AM (lZBBB)
Since when is 67% a 3-1 margin .. it's a 2-1 margin
Posted by: Islamic Rage Boy at May 15, 2012 07:39 AM (e8kgV)
Posted by: toby928© at May 15, 2012 07:40 AM (NG097)
Posted by: John Travolta at May 15, 2012 07:40 AM (IoNBC)
CO Blacks = 4%; JEF wins by 196,658. With 2.5million less vote nationally, he loses around 100k vote in CO. Oh, and lots of Mormons in CO. Hmm.
Other states:
IA Blacks = 2.9%; JEF wins by 140,732. 72,5000 lost.
FL 16%. 204,577 margin. 400k lost.
NC 21.5%; 13,692; 537,500 lost
PA 10.8%; 605,820; 270k lost.
OH 12.2%; 206,830; 305k lost
WI 6.3%; 412,293; 158k lost
IN 9.1%; 25,826; 228k lost
NM 2.1%; 120,638; 52.5k lost
VA 19.4%; 232,317; 458k lost
MN 5.2%; 297,945; 130k lost
NV 8.1%; 119,896; 202,500 lost.
So, just a drop to 55% participation and 95% for the JEF and he already loses FL, NC, OH, IN, VA and NV that he won last time.
(I'll admit, it's probably more accurate to take the 55% @95% and apply it to each state but, I'm lazy and already ran the national number, so I'll stick with that to calculate the numbers lost.)
Posted by: jimmuy at May 15, 2012 07:51 AM (kSaUf)
Just ran FL current pop. @ 16% black @ 60% participation with 98% of vote vs. 55% participation with 95% of vote and it comes out thus: The JEF loses 199,154 votes in FL just with a 5% participation drop by blacks and a 3% of their vote drop. A state he only won by 204,577.
Yeah, Just'us for Trayvon is a Hail Mary.
Posted by: jimmuy at May 15, 2012 08:04 AM (kSaUf)
Women hate being lied to. ......Women hate being lied to, especially by someone or something that they have placed their trust in.
The government, the Barky administration, is lying to us bigtime right now....about inflation. ....Well, about everything, of course....but women do most of the shopping, so they see this Big Lie every time they are buying groceries.
We need to keep hammering about this. ....The Lying About Inflation. ....Because women in general, will take note of this...and it will ring true.
The next progression in that thought process, is of course....."If they're lying to me about Inflation, then what else are they lying about?"
Posted by: wheatie at May 15, 2012 08:05 AM (dHMPi)
Posted by: & at May 15, 2012 08:23 AM (oZfic)
Posted by: Advo at May 15, 2012 08:27 AM (7vbG1)
Posted by: Acid Spunk at May 15, 2012 09:03 AM (dSnpt)
Posted by: Michael at May 15, 2012 10:06 AM (Hl5ka)
Posted by: steevy at May 15, 2012 02:11 PM (7W3wI)
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Posted by: toby928© at May 15, 2012 06:31 AM (NG097)