January 16, 2013
— CAC Never too early for a map.

The number of competitive races, given the sizable Republican gains from 2009-2012, is surprisingly small: three on the Democratic side (Illinois, Connecticut, Arkansas) and five on the Republican side (Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Florida, and Maine). Of these, there are three projected flips, two favoring the Democrats in Virginia this year and Maine next, and one favoring the Republicans in Arkansas. Republicans will hold a majority of governor's mansions January 2015, and depending on the caliber of their Democratic opponent should have at least two if not three of their incumbents survive in the Big Swing Three (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida).
Various factors are driving these competitive states. In the BST, approval ratings for the incumbent Republican governors have drifted out of the danger zone but are still teetering. Kasich and Scott, for the record, have seen their numbers plunge then rise throughout the course of 2011-2012, while Corbett's has dived more recently. Quinn and Malloy on the D side are fairing worse, though Malloy got a boost in the aftermath of the Sandy Hook shooting.
Arkansas and Virginia are different beasts, with popular governors term-limited and opposition party candidates leading in polling to replace them. Virginia typically votes for the party out of the White House, but with a potentially fractured right-side-of-the-ticket, it gives the Democrats an opening to break that tradition.
LePage in Maine was not expected to win in 2010 and had enjoyed divided liberal voters, with last years statehouse changes favoring the Democrats and his current approval ratings, he isn't favored to hold on, though that will ultimately depend on his eventual opponent.
Posted by: CAC at
02:49 PM
| Comments (124)
Post contains 284 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: t-bird at January 16, 2013 02:50 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at January 16, 2013 02:52 PM (ROv35)
Posted by: andycanuck at January 16, 2013 02:53 PM (ORGYc)
Posted by: Truman North at January 16, 2013 02:54 PM (I2LwF)
Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit. at January 16, 2013 02:56 PM (yiIja)
Posted by: Truck Monkey at January 16, 2013 02:56 PM (jucos)
Posted by: USS Diversity at January 16, 2013 02:57 PM (MPjT8)
Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at January 16, 2013 02:57 PM (YmPwQ)
Posted by: FURPC at January 16, 2013 02:57 PM (0ImZM)
Posted by: Tilikum the Killer Whale at January 16, 2013 02:58 PM (+aCe4)
Posted by: AndrewsDad at January 16, 2013 02:59 PM (C2//T)
Posted by: Soona at January 16, 2013 02:59 PM (wFxRK)
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at January 16, 2013 02:59 PM (QKKT0)
Posted by: andycanuck at January 16, 2013 02:59 PM (ORGYc)
Posted by: phoenixgirl so done with the GOP at January 16, 2013 03:00 PM (Xp1Kn)
Posted by: andycanuck "
Don't make me beach myself.
Posted by: Tilikum the Killer Whale at January 16, 2013 03:00 PM (+aCe4)
Corbett is not very popular in PA, and the new Dem AG is planning to probe his involvement in the Sandusky/Penn State mess.
ISWYDT.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit. at January 16, 2013 03:01 PM (yiIja)
Posted by: Truman North at January 16, 2013 03:01 PM (I2LwF)
Posted by: phoenixgirl so done with the GOP at January 16, 2013 03:01 PM (Xp1Kn)
...never too early to start kidding ourselves.
Posted by: Sgt. York at January 16, 2013 03:02 PM (jEvoA)
Posted by: Your Low-Info Obama Electors at January 16, 2013 03:02 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: Truck Monkey at January 16, 2013 03:02 PM (jucos)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at January 16, 2013 03:03 PM (ROv35)
Posted by: Tilikum the Killer Whale at January 16, 2013 03:04 PM (+aCe4)
Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit. at January 16, 2013 03:04 PM (yiIja)
It's 2010 and Chik Fil A all wrapped up in one!
Posted by: USS Diversity at January 16, 2013 03:04 PM (MPjT8)
Posted by: Truck Monkey at January 16, 2013 03:04 PM (jucos)
I think a more salient question is whether a Republic will limp its way to the end of 2014 to have an election.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose is Shrugging at January 16, 2013 03:05 PM (0q2P7)
Posted by: USS Diversity at January 16, 2013 03:06 PM (MPjT8)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at January 16, 2013 03:06 PM (nGO/U)
And Richmond won't be the Capital this time.
Posted by: Tobacco Road at January 16, 2013 03:06 PM (4Mv1T)
Posted by: Hrothgar - LIB or SMOD (for the Children) at January 16, 2013 03:07 PM (Cnqmv)
Posted by: HAL 9000 at January 16, 2013 03:07 PM (ORGYc)
Posted by: Keith Arnold at January 16, 2013 03:07 PM (n4EDK)
It will be back. Don't waste your best comments here.
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at January 16, 2013 03:08 PM (QKKT0)
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at January 16, 2013 03:09 PM (QKKT0)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose is Shrugging at January 16, 2013 03:09 PM (0q2P7)
Posted by: Gunslinger at January 16, 2013 03:09 PM (4S7hN)
Posted by: PaleRider at January 16, 2013 03:10 PM (dkExz)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose is Shrugging at January 16, 2013 07:05 PM (0q2P7)
That question implies that there is still a crippled, but ambulatory, Republic in existence. Frankly after Executive Order Imperial Caliph Obama gets through his next year, I think there will only be fond memories of a free country left.
Posted by: Hrothgar - LIB or SMOD (for the Children) at January 16, 2013 03:10 PM (Cnqmv)
Posted by: Keith Arnold at January 16, 2013 03:11 PM (n4EDK)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose is Shrugging at January 16, 2013 07:09 PM (0q2P7)
eh,, my daughter just got that news a week ago. another round.
(3rd time ) then theyll move to radiation.
Posted by: ette at January 16, 2013 03:11 PM (nqBYe)
Posted by: Keith Arnold at January 16, 2013 07:11 PM (n4EDK)
The good news is that the next governor probably has a bigger dick!
Posted by: Hrothgar - LIB or SMOD (for the Children) at January 16, 2013 03:12 PM (Cnqmv)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose is Shrugging at January 16, 2013 03:12 PM (0q2P7)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at January 16, 2013 03:12 PM (nGO/U)
Posted by: Keith Arnold at January 16, 2013 03:13 PM (n4EDK)
Posted by: Vic at January 16, 2013 03:13 PM (53z96)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at January 16, 2013 03:13 PM (nGO/U)
Villaraigosa, because you cannot resist his Latin charms.
Posted by: Fritz at January 16, 2013 03:13 PM (w3+gB)
Posted by: Tobacco Road at January 16, 2013 03:13 PM (4Mv1T)
Posted by: wooga at January 16, 2013 03:14 PM (lfTEK)
OTOH, every dick is small to Linda Ronstadt these days.
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at January 16, 2013 03:14 PM (QKKT0)
Or being told that the most effective and sustainable long term chemo is probably not suitable for you because of severe side effects that typically impact less than 10% of the patients!
Posted by: Hrothgar - LIB or SMOD (for the Children) at January 16, 2013 03:14 PM (Cnqmv)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose is Shrugging at January 16, 2013 03:14 PM (0q2P7)
Posted by: Tilikum the Killer Whale at January 16, 2013 03:15 PM (+aCe4)
Posted by: Hrothgar - LIB or SMOD (for the Children) at January 16, 2013 07:14 PM (Cnqmv)
omg, That is harsh. prayers!
Posted by: ette at January 16, 2013 03:16 PM (nqBYe)
Umm -- New Jersey is colored wrong. Christie is a Democrat.
What -- he's a Republican? Realies for trulies?
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at January 16, 2013 03:16 PM (kdS6q)
Posted by: FURPC at January 16, 2013 03:16 PM (0ImZM)
Mom's side of the family been in the SC Lowcountry for 9-10 generations. They'll find another Citadel cadet to blast a cannon in the general direction of the Feds if they have, too. The Upstate is the buckle of the Bible belt, too. Not sure about Columbia.
Posted by: Tobacco Road at January 16, 2013 03:16 PM (4Mv1T)
Posted by: Truman North at January 16, 2013 03:17 PM (piAb1)
Posted by: wooga at January 16, 2013 07:14 PM (lfTEK)
FIFY
Posted by: Karl Rover at January 16, 2013 03:17 PM (Cnqmv)
Posted by: chemjeff at January 16, 2013 03:18 PM (cnS/d)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at January 16, 2013 03:18 PM (ROv35)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at January 16, 2013 03:19 PM (nGO/U)
?
Posted by: pep at January 16, 2013 03:19 PM (6TB1Z)
People outside NYC are fired up.
Posted by: Marcus at January 16, 2013 03:19 PM (Jcvuc)
Posted by: Burn the Witch"
That sounds more like Hollywood.
Posted by: Tilikum the Killer Whale at January 16, 2013 03:20 PM (+aCe4)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at January 16, 2013 03:21 PM (ROv35)
?
Posted by: pep at January 16, 2013 07:19 PM (6TB1Z)
====
Red Dawn...but it was half a million scarecrows.
Posted by: USS Diversity at January 16, 2013 03:21 PM (MPjT8)
Posted by: Caliph Barky Ochoomba at January 16, 2013 03:21 PM (Cnqmv)
Posted by: Linda Ronstadt at January 16, 2013 03:21 PM (jucos)
I plain vanilla Glock 19 holds 15-16 rounds, I do believe.
If I owned one, and the gubmint told me I could only put 7 rounds in the magazine, I'd be way past pissed.
Posted by: Tobacco Road at January 16, 2013 03:22 PM (4Mv1T)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at January 16, 2013 03:22 PM (ROv35)
Posted by: Keith Arnold at January 16, 2013 03:23 PM (n4EDK)
How about when I tell you that you will need Photo ID to buy ammo, but not to vote. Will that get your interest?
Posted by: Eric "Red" Holder at January 16, 2013 03:24 PM (Cnqmv)
Unions, agricultural subsidies, eco-terrorists, and moonbat college towns.
Posted by: Fritz at January 16, 2013 03:24 PM (w3+gB)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at January 16, 2013 03:24 PM (nGO/U)
Posted by: andycanuck at January 16, 2013 03:25 PM (ORGYc)
Keeping the sharia in fair "share" since 2008!
Posted by: Caliph Barky Ochoomba at January 16, 2013 03:26 PM (Cnqmv)
Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at January 16, 2013 03:26 PM (+lsX1)
Posted by: Mr. Green at January 16, 2013 03:27 PM (/Bbvl)
Most of Europe still gets to have elections. We will, too.
Not as rewarding as they were in the past, just more expensive.
Meh. Elections are becoming like the paint colors for the early Ford Model T's: you can have any color you want (or elect any politician you want) as long as it's black (or Leftarded).
I haven't gotten a damned thing I've voted for in a long, long time, like prosperity, or job security, or privacy, or the rule of law. None of that shit. What I have gotten is a bunch of lies and deceit.
And funemployment. Five years worth of it as of next month. As much fun as you jackwagons are to hang out with, I think I'm just about through giving a shit about politics any more. The best part of beating your head against the wall is, it feels really good when you stop doing it.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy, who did not vote for this shit. at January 16, 2013 03:28 PM (yiIja)
Posted by: Alvin Green at January 16, 2013 03:31 PM (C8mVl)
Posted by: Sarahw at January 16, 2013 03:33 PM (LYwCh)
Sorry to hear of the long stretch you've endured. I have a friend who is much harder right-wing than even I am. He has stayed mad. I got through my last stage of grief and anger from the election two weeks ago, which is "acceptance".
My friend doesn't understand why I don't get as angry as him, yet I am the one who has started tucking away cash, food, water, and firearms. I realize this is hard to impossible for those who have been without work.
Nevertheless I told him that once he gets done being mad, he can get busy getting ready... for whatever's next. Hopefully nothing..but I think too many "live rounds" have been tossed into the fire (i.e. trampled Constitutional freedoms, debt load, struggling economy) and one of them will pop soon.
Posted by: Tobacco Road at January 16, 2013 03:34 PM (4Mv1T)
Posted by: FURPC at January 16, 2013 03:36 PM (0ImZM)
Posted by: Ed Wood VS Godzilla at January 16, 2013 03:40 PM (obHYs)
West Virginia? Sold "R" there...
(for those not paying attention, there was a post @ WV electing an "R" the other day. Not Going To Happen, even if they did vote "R" for what, 4 out of the last two dozen PrezElections?)
Posted by: Jess1 at January 16, 2013 03:52 PM (lbiWb)
Posted by: Sockless Joe at January 16, 2013 03:59 PM (6VbQ9)
For all the terrible cancer news for our 'rons and 'ettes and their loved ones, I've been hearing some good stuff about this option a lot: Low-dose Naltrexone Therapy.
Posted by: RushBabe at January 16, 2013 04:08 PM (tQHzJ)
Posted by: The Political Hat at January 16, 2013 04:13 PM (Vk2pI)
Posted by: Virgil at January 16, 2013 04:14 PM (Vk2pI)
Posted by: h at January 16, 2013 07:19 PM (Cnqmv)
I'm very sorry, tell her to keep her chin up , let them do as much as possible to help her. (know it's hard) and mr h. i'm sure i don't have to tell you this but hold her her lovingly. it can be harsh, and don't let her give up.
Posted by: ette at January 16, 2013 04:27 PM (nqBYe)
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at January 16, 2013 04:36 PM (KZuD1)
Posted by: Jordan at January 16, 2013 06:25 PM (Hz1zc)
Posted by: henrymalredo at January 16, 2013 06:42 PM (2aiYI)
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Posted by: I lurk, therefore I am at January 16, 2013 02:50 PM (+tsoh)