August 16, 2013
— DrewM Matthew Continetti has a post up at the Free Beacon entitled Be Afraid: The Democratic plan to take back the House. In it he argues the House GOP majority in danger because the Democrats, led by Obama, are playing for keeps and have already begun their campaig. HeÂ’s also worried that conservatives are being complacent in thinking that the electorate will be like 2010Â’s and not 2008 or 2012Â’s.
We discussed this at some length on the podcast last night. I agree that despite all the advantages the GOP has, safely gerrymandered districts, the historical trend that says in the sixth year of a presidency the opposition party almost always picks up seats, and no Obama on the ticket, they could still lose control of the House.
My theory on how the House could flip to the Democrats hinges on the make up of the electorate, but for a reason different than ContinetiÂ’sÂ….I donÂ’t think ObamaÂ’s voters will show up any more than they usually do but I think the GOPÂ’s may stay home.
Right now thereÂ’s a lot of conservative displeasure with the House and thereÂ’s likely to be more by the end of the year. Imagine this scenario for how the year end battles play outÂ….
After hiding from constituents during the August recess Congress returns in September and House leaders start talking up delay instead of repealing ObamaCare. As part of a “grand bargain” they shut off the sequester (in whole or in part) in exchange for what some will call a massive tax hike, that’s followed with a CR/Debt ceiling hike that has a higher baseline than they had previously been working from because the sequester was modified, so now they can spend more money like they've wanted to all along. There’s a delay in the ObamaCare individual mandate but the subsidies go into effect for states that have working exchanges, the ban on disqualifying people because of pre-existing conditions stays and they “fix” ObamaCare’s high risk pools by funding them again (without any offsetting cuts in the “slush fund”) to top it all off they pass pieces of amnesty, including the DREAM Act which would have the effect blessing Obama’s lawless administrative acts. The Democrats wanting the issue more than the bill won’t move it out of the Senate so Hispanics are mad at the GOP for not going all the way on amnesty and conservatives are mad they tried to sellout.
Under these conditions itÂ’s very easy to see conservatives throwing up their hands and saying, whatÂ’s the point?
Now could this all play out another way? Sure. But is the above scenario science fiction? Not even remotely.
As I said, we discussed this during the podcast last night. I think we did a pretty good job of fleshing out the issues from both sides. Take a listen and decide if you think the House GOP majority is in some real danger next year. I think it is.
Posted by: DrewM at
06:36 AM
| Comments (219)
Post contains 512 words, total size 4 kb.
Posted by: steve at August 16, 2013 06:38 AM (L9End)
I'll be polishing the andirons that day.
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at August 16, 2013 06:39 AM (Boytw)
No worries, we've got it covered. Can't wait 'till the ObamaCare Hub is fully operational!
Posted by: ACORN at August 16, 2013 06:40 AM (h9IBQ)
Posted by: Schrödinger's cat [/i] at August 16, 2013 06:40 AM (U2UQk)
Posted by: soothsayer lightfoot at August 16, 2013 06:41 AM (kqlZ8)
Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at August 16, 2013 06:41 AM (HDgX3)
The RINO dumpling gang has made it very clear "you'll take our sucking Obama's dick and you'll like it or you'll lose the house."
Guess what McCain gang?
I'll choose lose the House you cocksuckers.
Posted by: Miguel Ambivalence@sven10077 at August 16, 2013 06:41 AM (A4hKL)
Posted by: Vic at August 16, 2013 06:42 AM (lZvxr)
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at August 16, 2013 06:42 AM (Boytw)
Posted by: DM at August 16, 2013 06:42 AM (iwffa)
Posted by: Jinx the Cat at August 16, 2013 06:42 AM (l3vZN)
Posted by: Bobby Shandy at August 16, 2013 06:42 AM (RhMd5)
Posted by: rrpjr at August 16, 2013 06:42 AM (FWR8G)
Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at August 16, 2013 06:42 AM (HDgX3)
I. Don't. Care.
If the fuckers in the GOP weren't ass-deep in corruption and graft and scared to death of being called racists, they could have the dog-eating crackhead in handcuffs by Monday morning.
They have shown no interest in following the Constitution. I have no interest in giving them my vote.
And Juan McStain will still be screaming, "but, but - I reached across the aisle, my friends!" as they put has worthless ass up against the wall.
Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at August 16, 2013 06:42 AM (zF6Iw)
Yes, by all means let's let our Republican reps know that they can do anything they fucking please and we'll still vote for them. Hey, where else we gonna go?
Because Be Afraid.
Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at August 16, 2013 06:42 AM (SCcgT)
Posted by: MTF at August 16, 2013 06:43 AM (ZuiHO)
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at August 16, 2013 10:42 AM (Boytw)
Niether has anyone else.
Posted by: buzzion at August 16, 2013 06:43 AM (LI48c)
Posted by: Eric Cantor at August 16, 2013 06:43 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: rickb223 at August 16, 2013 06:43 AM (lwkv9)
Posted by: rickl at August 16, 2013 06:44 AM (zoehZ)
Pretty much dead on. I think the Rubicon was Amnesty, but the refusal to call out the Ogabe admin on lawlessness or protect their voters from the out of control regulatory fiat is the straw.
Posted by: Miguel Ambivalence@sven10077 at August 16, 2013 06:44 AM (A4hKL)
Posted by: Roy at August 16, 2013 06:44 AM (VndSC)
Posted by: Montjoie at August 16, 2013 06:44 AM (sBpR/)
Although a better word might be "delusional".
Moribund?
Comatose?
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at August 16, 2013 06:45 AM (Boytw)
Posted by: USNA1985 at August 16, 2013 06:45 AM (R8Qio)
Posted by: steve at August 16, 2013 10:38 AM
Reason Number One why the Democrats will win it back: the Republicans are too busy lining their own pockets, hitting the cocktail/fundraising circuit and sucking up to Their Liberal Betters to do a single friggin' useful thing.
Why vote for a damn Republican when he/she is a virtual lock to cave in to the wishes of the Choom Boy brigade?
I swear, I think Drew has discovered the Hot Air Button on his computer. All this jabber about How to Maintain a Majority is shot down instantly by the actions and words of Boner, Teh Noot, and the rest of the spineless fuckweasels in the party. All they have going for them is jellyfish like Poppin' Fresh and the NRO gang providing cover -- and excuses -- for them.
Posted by: MrScribbler at August 16, 2013 06:46 AM (kaGpp)
In a sane law based universe you might be correct because of "Math" in this one you're incorrect b/c we have Corky Thatcher as precinct bosses and AGs.
See you next November.
Posted by: Miguel Ambivalence@sven10077 at August 16, 2013 06:46 AM (A4hKL)
Posted by: rickb223 at August 16, 2013 06:46 AM (lwkv9)
Posted by: Oldsailors Poet at August 16, 2013 06:46 AM (XIxXP)
Posted by: Roy at August 16, 2013 06:46 AM (VndSC)
The GOP doesn't care whether they win or lose the house, as long as there is a political spoils system for them and theirs. Its not that I am cynical, it took me about 25 years to come to the truth of that.
It seems many others are also arriving there. See NRO in the sidebar.
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at August 16, 2013 06:46 AM (qM18f)
Conservatives aren't complacent, but the GOP certainly is.
Although a better word might be "delusional".
Moribund?
Comatose?
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at August 16, 2013 10:45 AM (Boytw)
High on the smoke the pollsters keep blowing up their asses.
Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at August 16, 2013 06:47 AM (zF6Iw)
Posted by: JackStraw at August 16, 2013 06:47 AM (g1DWB)
Posted by: SFGoth at August 16, 2013 06:47 AM (WdYjL)
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at August 16, 2013 10:42 AM (Boytw)"
Sort of like Loch Ness Monster sightings.
Posted by: Mr. Happy-Ounce of Prevention, Pound of Cure at August 16, 2013 06:47 AM (Unw5+)
Posted by: Oldsailors Poet at August 16, 2013 06:47 AM (XIxXP)
Posted by: Jon (not the troll) at August 16, 2013 06:48 AM (e3PTn)
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at August 16, 2013 10:42 AM
Fixed. You just have to visit the right bars and parties....
Posted by: MrScribbler at August 16, 2013 06:48 AM (kaGpp)
>>>...the last time they had all 3 prizes (Pres, House, Senate), they screwed the pooch big.
The last time they didn't (had nothing), we got that new tax thing called Obamacare. Choices.
Posted by: Roy at August 16, 2013 06:48 AM (VndSC)
"The GOP 'leadership,' as presently constituted, is nothing more than the lesser half of the Permanent Bipartisan Fusion Government, content to munch its cud and occasionally low in the direction of constitutional propriety, and then resume its own modest but lucrative role in fertilizing the 'two-party' system."
Precisely so.
It's time for conservatives to realize that the "Obama administration" is in reality a coalition government with the trougher wing of the GOP.
Posted by: torquewrench at August 16, 2013 06:49 AM (gqT4g)
Posted by: Author Gone Rogue at August 16, 2013 06:49 AM (yAor6)
Posted by: soothsayer lightfoot at August 16, 2013 06:49 AM (kqlZ8)
And that's the Rubicon. I don't know how to win. But it will not be with the GOP.
Posted by: Mr. Happy-Ounce of Prevention, Pound of Cure at August 16, 2013 06:49 AM (Unw5+)
Posted by: Oldsailors Poet at August 16, 2013 10:47 AM (XIxXP)
The yearly performance review. Aced it, but no raise.
BTW, put The Director's Cut in the mail yesterday. Hope you like it!
Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at August 16, 2013 06:50 AM (zF6Iw)
I don't particularly fret about my boss being fired. Why? Because she's largely worthless and has no concern for my own interest. Why on earth would I care about hers?
Posted by: Rickroll at August 16, 2013 06:50 AM (6VB4r)
Can America really call itself civilized when gypsy queens are forced to raise assault chickens in the shadows?
Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at August 16, 2013 06:50 AM (Boytw)
Posted by: Author Gone Rogue at August 16, 2013 10:49 AM (yAor6)
-1
Posted by: buzzion at August 16, 2013 06:50 AM (LI48c)
Posted by: Oldsailors Poet at August 16, 2013 06:50 AM (XIxXP)
I think this scenario is plausible bordering on likely. The fact that so many in the GOP leadership are openly $hitting on the party's base is making it worse.
If the Republicans were an effective check on Obama's abuses as they were during Clinton's presidency it would be one thing. But this group of Republicans acts like they learned their fighting skills from the French.
Amnesty combined with another cave on spending and failure to crack any skulls over Benghazi, or the IRS... forget it. Might as well be governed by Leftists so we can at least say the end will come more quickly.
Posted by: Sam In VA at August 16, 2013 06:50 AM (Q52VH)
America will continue its intentionally engineered decline.
Posted by: Hangmaster Flash v. 11.8.800.94 at August 16, 2013 06:51 AM (dqwTd)
>>>...the last time they had all 3 prizes (Pres, House, Senate), they screwed the pooch big.
They are not who you think they are. (they expanded govt)
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at August 16, 2013 06:51 AM (qM18f)
Posted by: Oldsailors Poet at August 16, 2013 06:51 AM (XIxXP)
Then the house and senate just won't be republicans, but we will all be winners.
Posted by: The plan at August 16, 2013 06:52 AM (qxcKC)
Still waiting for Ted Cruz to show the first signs of passive accommodation to the Obama agenda. But, strangely, no such signs anywhere in evidence. The guy seems to fight back harder against Obama with each new day.
Are we sure Cruz is actually a Republican? MOST atypical of the modern breed.
Posted by: torquewrench at August 16, 2013 06:52 AM (gqT4g)
Posted by: torquewrench at August 16, 2013 10:52 AM (gqT4g)
Wasn't he born in Canada? It just gets weirder and weirder...
Posted by: joncelli at August 16, 2013 06:53 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: soothsayer lightfoot at August 16, 2013 06:54 AM (kqlZ8)
Posted by: Mr. Happy-Ounce of Prevention, Pound of Cure at August 16, 2013 06:54 AM (Unw5+)
Posted by: Oldsailors Poet at August 16, 2013 06:54 AM (XIxXP)
Posted by: phoenixgirl @phxazgrl i support the rodeo clown at August 16, 2013 06:54 AM (8JJ6O)
Are we sure Cruz is actually a Republican? MOST atypical of the modern breed.
Posted by: torquewrench at August 16, 2013 10:52 AM (gqT4g)
Wasn't he born in Canada? It just gets weirder and weirder...
Posted by: joncelli at August 16, 2013 10:53 AM (RD7QR)
Cruz / Steyn 2016!
Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at August 16, 2013 06:55 AM (zF6Iw)
The cynic in me says the majority simply hasn't found Cruz's price yet, while the realist points out he makes up a whopping 1% of the Senate.
Is he really all we have? All the Great Conservative Heroes (many loudly and repeatedly touted at This Here Blog) have shown themselves to not even have the fortitude to stand on feet of clay.
Posted by: MrScribbler at August 16, 2013 06:56 AM (kaGpp)
Posted by: soothsayer lightfoot at August 16, 2013 06:56 AM (kqlZ8)
Posted by: Rickroll at August 16, 2013 10:50 AM (6VB4r)
-- Because your next boss could be worse?
Posted by: Velvet Ambition at August 16, 2013 06:56 AM (R8hU8)
Posted by: major major major major at August 16, 2013 06:57 AM (+Dnrj)
Posted by: Waldo at August 16, 2013 06:57 AM (JBCFN)
Posted by: Buzzsaw90 at August 16, 2013 06:57 AM (SO2Q8)
Posted by: Sebastian Melmoth at August 16, 2013 06:58 AM (WY3bD)
I'm surprised there hasn't been more mention of the way that Obama and Jack Lew have basically hit the snooze button on the debt clock for the last eighty-something days now.
We are, in reality, above the $17T debt ceiling as we speak. There's just questionably legal jiggerypokery going on to make it appear as though the number hovers just below the ceiling.
By the way, last time I looked at the deficit numbers, we were about $100B over what the full year total was supposed to be for the deficit, and the year's not over yet.
Frankly, I'm fine with another debt ceiling fight. And, soon. The more fighting is going on around debt, spending, and pork, the less legislative energy and comity there will be to pass new fusterclucks like amnesty.
Posted by: torquewrench at August 16, 2013 06:58 AM (gqT4g)
I donÂ’t think ObamaÂ’s voters will show up any more than they usually do but I think the GOPÂ’s may stay home.
Could be. Maybe not for the Washington-centric reasons given, but the nature of the Dueling Get Out The Vote Narratives.
Democrat GOTV Message:
Republicans supported that white racist who chased down a black child and shot him to death.
Republicans stuck a broom handle up President ObamaÂ’s butt and sent a rodeo bull after him.
Republican GOTV Message:
Is it our turn yet?
Posted by: CJ at August 16, 2013 06:58 AM (9KqcB)
Posted by: Oldsailors Poet at August 16, 2013 06:59 AM (XIxXP)
Posted by: Mr. Happy-Ounce of Prevention, Pound of Cure
Chris Christie - is that you using that sock?
Posted by: Roy at August 16, 2013 06:59 AM (VndSC)
Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at August 16, 2013 06:59 AM (SCcgT)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at August 16, 2013 06:59 AM (Ec6wH)
Posted by: BlueStateRebel at August 16, 2013 06:59 AM (7ObY1)
I agree that if the pubbies sign up for amnesty, they lose.
Here is the only game-changer I can see: a full-court press on the devastating impact of 11 milllion new "legals" on lower-middle-class jobs. Even Lo-FOs can get their heads around that if it hammered home.
Unfortunately, The Boner doesn't seem to know how to play full-court, and can't use a hammer unless it is to smash his finger.
Posted by: Ray Van Dune at August 16, 2013 07:00 AM (Bn9/M)
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at August 16, 2013 07:00 AM (/Crba)
Posted by: Swanny at August 16, 2013 07:00 AM (RdIqM)
Posted by: garrett at August 16, 2013 07:00 AM (tqodT)
Boehner is a horrible leader who put politics above everything else. He has stood by and watch some of the worst pieces of legislation or imperialistic action by the president go unchallenged. As a citizen I would characterize his tenure by a bully analogy; the bully has pummeled us for years as Boehner stood by and watched, simply because he cut a deal with the bully to not pick on him. In summary, he's disgraceful.
Cantor and McCarthy are no better. After getting significant help from conservatives to get elected, they turned around and kicked them in the nuts. Nobody likes them- not even Independents.
The coup de grace will be immigration. House members can hide all they want from voters and cut a deal to please their donors. But if people don't show up to vote, what good is any of that money? In fact, if you grew a pair and lead on easily articulated principles- you might not need all that cash.
Summarily, the GOP has not learned anything from the past. They still put politics over principles. Hence they don't even see the coming disaster. I hope they truly get a bunch of those illegal immigrants to vote for them, because right now most of us citizens aren't and that lack of turnout will hurt the party. Again.
Posted by: Marcus at August 16, 2013 07:00 AM (FmDsY)
Posted by: Roy at August 16, 2013 07:00 AM (VndSC)
Posted by: Exceptionally Mediocre at August 16, 2013 07:01 AM (ZKGJl)
It wasn't all that long ago that a formerly obscure ward-heeler and Illinois state legislator was making up a whopping 1% of the Senate. But, that guy turned the political aggression up to eleven, and kept it there, and soon, he wasn't in the Senate any longer. He was in the White House.
Posted by: torquewrench at August 16, 2013 07:02 AM (gqT4g)
Why on earth would I care about hers?
Posted by: Rickroll at August 16, 2013 10:50 AM (6VB4r)
-- Because your next boss could be worse?
Posted by: Velvet Ambition at August 16, 2013 10:56 AM (R8hU
Which has been the GOP rationale for every shitty candidate shoved down our throats since Ronaldus Maximus.
Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at August 16, 2013 07:02 AM (zF6Iw)
Posted by: Vote Lord Humungus 2016 at August 16, 2013 07:02 AM (HEa5q)
Posted by: RWC at August 16, 2013 07:02 AM (fWAjv)
I don't particularly fret about my boss being fired. Why? Because she's largely worthless and has no concern for my own interest. Why on earth would I care about hers?
Posted by: Rickroll at August 16, 2013 10:50 AM (6VB4r)
Speaker. Nancy. Pelosi.
Fuck, they have my vote again.
Posted by: Jollyroger at August 16, 2013 07:03 AM (t06LC)
This is worthy of impeachment of Choom Boy and the removal of his felonious underlings like Lew.
It is neither possible nor legal to make the national debt go away by ignoring it. If anyone were fucking paying attention, it should be sparking a monetary crisis that would make October '29 look like a church picnic.
Posted by: MrScribbler at August 16, 2013 07:04 AM (kaGpp)
Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at August 16, 2013 11:02 AM (zF6Iw)
-- I need to be specific, I was talking about the hypothetical boss not the GOP.
Fuck the GOP
Posted by: Velvet Ambition at August 16, 2013 07:04 AM (R8hU8)
This is spot-on. The R's seem intent on creating a new base, and I think they are gonna get it if things don't change.
I know I'm done turning out for them unless I see actions. Words are no longer enough.
Posted by: FITP at August 16, 2013 07:05 AM (M5HFX)
Posted by: sneaky little five-eyes at August 16, 2013 07:05 AM (SwHqo)
Posted by: Oldsailors Poet just bought a seven dollar pound of hamburger. at August 16, 2013 07:05 AM (XIxXP)
Posted by: soothsayer lightfoot at August 16, 2013 07:05 AM (kqlZ8)
Posted by: Marcus at August 16, 2013 07:05 AM (FmDsY)
Posted by: 13times at August 16, 2013 07:05 AM (fGPLK)
Posted by: DQUIXOTE at August 16, 2013 07:06 AM (J+cfY)
92 Any conservative that doesn't want Christie to be our nominee in 2016 might want to make sure he goes down in flames now.
An example of "strategic losing" actually accomplishing something for conservatism. However small, it's something.
Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at August 16, 2013 07:06 AM (SCcgT)
Posted by: Roy at August 16, 2013 11:00 AM (VndSC)
Yes, the slogan we're working on now is "Just the Tip, We Swear to God!" Pretty nifty, eh?
Posted by: Star Captain Reince Priebus at August 16, 2013 07:06 AM (RD7QR)
We won the house in '94 after decades on the outside because Newt put forth a plan and everyone promised to carry it out.
It was an overwhelming sweep. Massive win.
Let's review:
Plan = win
No plan = loss
Pop Quiz:
How can we win in the midterms?
A. Have a plan.
B. Don't have a plan. Bitch at democrat's plan.
Take your time, no need to rush. Consider the question and all the answers carefully.
Turn your work in when done.
Posted by: jwest at August 16, 2013 07:06 AM (u2a4R)
I have bad news for all you who believe conservatives didn't vote in 2012: We were Maxed Out in 2012.
That's as good as it gets. There are just way more D voters in the US than R's, now.
Posted by: soothsayer lightfoot at August 16, 2013 11:05 AM (kqlZ
Yup. Demographics is destiny.
Posted by: joncelli at August 16, 2013 07:07 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Vote Lord Humungus 2016 at August 16, 2013 11:02 AM (HEa5q)
Are you really sure of that? They just ran a guy that didn't even bother trying to seek reelection.
Posted by: buzzion at August 16, 2013 07:07 AM (LI48c)
Posted by: eman at August 16, 2013 07:07 AM (AO9UG)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at August 16, 2013 07:08 AM (WQcLz)
Posted by: motion view (@motionview) at August 16, 2013 07:08 AM (6Tbb5)
NOT ONE RED CENT for the RNC and its DC welfare plan. But DO donate to primary challengers to as many GOP incumbents as you can... and then, in 2014. VOTE AGAINST THE DEMOCRAT.
OK, except maybe for Graham, McConnell and Boehner, but still... get out there and vote as if your kids' life depended on it.
Posted by: MSNBCBSABCNN at August 16, 2013 07:08 AM (qvify)
http://tinyurl.com/ol9n8ro
Take a break and lol but not in the office cause I just caused a commotion.
Needed an antidote to matt continetti's piece.
Posted by: caustic at August 16, 2013 07:09 AM (/b8+5)
Posted by: Count de Monet at August 16, 2013 07:09 AM (BAS5M)
Conservatives just sulk.
Obama dares anyone to try to dethrone him as King.
Republicans in Congress worry that if they stop funding the Executive Branch, their favorite hooker might find out and there'll be no more blowjobs or anal, just endless aging years masturbating in the shower.
This Republican Congress couldn't have freed itself from Lichtenstein in 1781. Maybe from the oppression of The Wiggles, but never Lichtenstein.
Posted by: Peter at August 16, 2013 07:09 AM (ITRXg)
The Dems couldn't win the House in 2012 when they had a great turnout, why think they'd win it in 2014 when presumably fewer Dems will be expected to vote?
Posted by: steve
The common wisdom from the Republican intelligentsia going into the election eve was Mitt was the odds on favorite, at least a split in the Senate was a lock, and the House looked safe.
Reality showed the Republicans significantly under performed expectations, to put it nicely. Painful experience shows that if you have to bet the rent money, assume that Republicans will eff it up.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2013 07:09 AM (kdS6q)
Well, the GOP is offering the conservatives a real choice, you know. Socialism as opposed to Socialism lite. Who wouldn't be chomping at the bit to go vote?
Idiots.
Posted by: maddogg at August 16, 2013 07:10 AM (xWW96)
Posted by: Oldsailors Poet just bought a seven dollar pound of hamburger. at August 16, 2013 07:10 AM (XIxXP)
"Better no rule than cruel rule".
Sorry, can't get Tinyurl to load today.
http://www.aesopfables.com/cgi/aesop1.cgi?sel&TheFrogsDesiringaKing
Hmm. Might want to structure an Amer. Govt. class over this fable.
Posted by: wg at August 16, 2013 07:10 AM (O0xwq)
Some of the ulama (Islamic clerics) have made the jihad in Egypt fard kifaya (obligatory on the whole ummah), a concept I learned about in Bin Laden's 1998 fatwa against the US and our "allies".
So anyway, about that civil war in Egypt I predicted here several months ago along with the end of Christianity in Egypt and Syria. At the time I thought maybe I was being overly pessimistic.
Maybe, for once, Obama and his people would be right. Yeah, no.
Posted by: Beagle at August 16, 2013 07:11 AM (sOtz/)
I don't buy that too many GOP leaning voters I knew in Ohio sat out, that said Free Shit Army did have Walt Disney Reinforcements from the DeDe Jenital Catfish Rachel Jeintal Auxilla...
if the best the GOP can offer is McCain gang I am past giving a fuck.
Posted by: sven10077 at August 16, 2013 07:12 AM (A4hKL)
Posted by: gimme_danager at August 16, 2013 07:12 AM (3Ij+l)
The trougher wing DO have a plan. It's just that the plan sucks. It's more passive accommodation crap.
The Republicans should be running on the huge scandal that ordinary Joes and Janes are being forced into Obamacare, but meanwhile, the Congress are not thus being forced. Nor are most of the rest of the federal aristocracy.
The Republicans should be making an "everybody in OR everybody out" pitch on Obamacare. Either total repeal, or no exceptions.
Instead, the trougher wing are terrified that they themselves might get stuck in Obamacare, and they'll do anything to buy themselves out of that morass.
Posted by: torquewrench at August 16, 2013 07:12 AM (gqT4g)
If immigration passes my vote wont matter. The GOP will have proven by passing immigration that they don't want my vote now or ever.
If immigration passes I wont stay home. I will go to the voting booth and write on my ballot that since the GOP doesn't want to win as proven by passing immigration that they can kiss my ass and shove the ballot up their collective asses.
Posted by: retired military at August 16, 2013 07:13 AM (kO8U/)
VOTE AGAINST THE DEMOCRAT.
Nope, not any more. If I can't get my turncoat sellout via the primary, I will vote for the Dem.
I told him I would if he voted immigration out of the Senate, and I'm a man of my word.
I am NOT the R party's bitch.
Posted by: FITP at August 16, 2013 07:13 AM (M5HFX)
I've been wondering lately...if the Dems were to achieve their goal of a permanent one-party totalitarian rule (and they are getting very close) who would become their Emmanuel Goldstein?
Paula Deen is calling from the white courtesy phone.
Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at August 16, 2013 07:13 AM (zF6Iw)
Posted by: JackStraw at August 16, 2013 07:13 AM (g1DWB)
Posted by: cman at August 16, 2013 07:13 AM (PYtJe)
So it looks like almost everyone here wants the Republicans to lose the House. At least that is consistent with LIB and actually goes farther to MIB.
Hope all are prepared.
Posted by: polynikes at August 16, 2013 07:13 AM (m2CN7)
Posted by: wrg500 at August 16, 2013 07:13 AM (mwctc)
Maybe, for once, Obamaand his people would be right. Yeah, no.
Posted by: Beagle at August 16, 2013 11:11 AM (sOtz/)
The question now is whether the military is ruthless enough to crush the MB now that they are out from beneath their rocks. Bambi has nothing to do with anything in Egypt and would only make things worse if he did.
Posted by: joncelli at August 16, 2013 07:14 AM (RD7QR)
Not necessarily more legitimate voters*, just more votes cast. You're welcome. Also, thank Eric Holder and his crusade to eliminate every state's Voter ID/"Poll Tax" law to ensure continued Dem victories.
*That's the reason why the TX "True the Vote" organization was harassed by so many fed agencies.
Posted by: ACORN at August 16, 2013 07:15 AM (h9IBQ)
Posted by: JackStraw at August 16, 2013 07:15 AM (g1DWB)
106
How can we win in the midterms?
We could also add this:
C. Let's bitch at each /and stay silent about Democrats.
Posted by: Wendy at August 16, 2013 07:16 AM (KydDZ)
Posted by: Oldsailors Poet just bought a seven dollar pound of hamburger. at August 16, 2013 07:16 AM (XIxXP)
Uh no. There are several Republican incumbents who I am very much motivated to turn out and vote for the demoncrat, should they survive their primary challenge.
Posted by: SpongeBob ReaverSaget at August 16, 2013 07:16 AM (epxV4)
Posted by: GOP at August 16, 2013 07:16 AM (M2qTM)
Posted by: Ken Royall at August 16, 2013 07:16 AM (h+2SD)
Posted by: Beagle at August 16, 2013 07:16 AM (sOtz/)
This was not only the common wisdom from the Republican intelligentsia, but from a bunch of otherwise sensible conservative bloggers who should have known better.
When I started hearing "Relax. We got this," and similar sentiments in the last two weeks of the race, I knew that disaster impended. People got lax and sloppy and overconfident.
The GOP needs to relearn that you run every second of a political race as though you're ten points behind, no matter what the polls say. You never let up and never slack off, not even after the adversary's concession speech is delivered.
Posted by: torquewrench at August 16, 2013 07:17 AM (gqT4g)
Posted by: BignJames at August 16, 2013 07:17 AM (ZNQKl)
Posted by: RWC at August 16, 2013 07:17 AM (fWAjv)
If guys are determined to vote for the Democrat instead of the other, just 'cuz, let us know how it works out.
Also, let us know how cutting off your dick works to help get rid of that annoying drip, drip, drip thing.
Posted by: Roy at August 16, 2013 07:17 AM (VndSC)
Posted by: polynikes
That's about right (on being resolved to lose the House) and I am prepared.
Not like the House is doing much to stop SCOAMF anyway.
Posted by: FITP at August 16, 2013 07:17 AM (M5HFX)
Posted by: 13times at August 16, 2013 07:18 AM (fGPLK)
Guess crispy will jump to the presidential race from the governorship and booker will follow the obama route from the senate.
Posted by: caustic at August 16, 2013 07:19 AM (/b8+5)
Posted by: artisanal 'ette at August 16, 2013 07:20 AM (IXrOn)
Posted by: Oldsailors Poet just bought a seven dollar pound of hamburger. at August 16, 2013 07:20 AM (XIxXP)
------------------
That seems to be the pattern for conservatives, or at least for Republicans. One cannot put aside the fact that for those on the Left, the environment is native to them, and they flourish without compromise.
Active engagement is simply contrary to the nature of most conservatives. It seems that Wm. Buckley's admonition that the conservative's job of 'Standing athwart history and shouting, "Stop" is correct, and yet it requires an unnatural (to conservatives) nature to actually do that in a meaningful way. We are occasionally heartened when a Gowdy, Cruz, Demint, or such stands up and says something, but they are few.
My feelings remain that the media are the real enablers of the Left, and I doubt that any changes will come about in the absence of a shift in the perspective of the media.
Posted by: Mike Hammer at August 16, 2013 07:20 AM (aDwsi)
Upon further reflection--This is clearly both triangulation, and an attempt to read out an element, not out of principled disagreements, but to buy protection.
Done, done, done, done, done, done. I will not be triangulated against and demonized just so the Chamber of Commerce can have cheap wage-slave labor and some hack can have a good lifestyle in D.C. as part of the new nobility.
Posted by: Mr. Happy-Ounce of Prevention, Pound of Cure at August 16, 2013 07:20 AM (Unw5+)
Posted by: soothsayer lightfoot at August 16, 2013 07:21 AM (kqlZ8)
So it looks like almost everyone here wants the Republicans to lose the House.
I don't want them to. I would rather they win and advance a conservative agenda, which includes pimp-slapping the Dope-In-Chief. But since they are actively pissing in my face with Obastardcare waivers and the Cuban Combover's amnesty, I prefer the current seat-warmers lose.
At least that is consistent with LIB and actually goes farther to MIB.
Hope all are prepared.
Posted by: polynikes at August 16, 2013 11:13 AM (m2CN7)
As prepared as I can be without knowing what will really happen. But if tossing shitstains like Rubio out is the only way to get their attention, then that's what it will have to be.
Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at August 16, 2013 07:22 AM (zF6Iw)
Kinda works the other way too. Run a Christine O'Donnell and the dreaded Establishment won't be there.
Posted by: JackStraw
The Republicans(tm) don't have that many actual voters, and the ones they do are concentrated in Blue States that are lost for the foreseeable future. That's one of the reasons their preferred candidates keep getting stomped.
What they do have are endorsements as a gatekeeper, and donor lists, both of which have decreasing value given the official party's performance. The official party is increasingly a paper tiger.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2013 07:22 AM (kdS6q)
Posted by: Mike Hammer at August 16, 2013 07:22 AM (aDwsi)
Posted by: Count de Monet at August 16, 2013 07:22 AM (BAS5M)
Also, let us know how cutting off your dick works to help get rid of that annoying drip, drip, drip thing.
The sooner you have the surgery, the sooner you can start to heal.
Besides, I'm a spiteful sonofabitch and I don't like being lied to.
Posted by: FITP at August 16, 2013 07:23 AM (M5HFX)
Here's my plan for the 2014 midterms:
Whatever Karl Rove suggests, do the opposite.
With that guy failure is not an option, it is a certainty.
Posted by: Ernie McCracken at August 16, 2013 07:23 AM (ZETiK)
Remember "Romney Within 7 in Wisconsin!!"?
Posted by: soothsayer
Remember "Mccain is surging in California" in October 2008?
Good times, good times.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2013 07:24 AM (kdS6q)
I hope he's prepared.
Posted by: JackStraw at August 16, 2013 11:15 AM (g1DWB)
He is just taking his cues from Newt Gingrich, who earlier said basically the same thing. I'm not making a judgement one way or the other regard to people who are in the LIB camp. I'm in the everyman for themself camp which is probably aligned closer to the LIB. I'm just pointing out that wanting or assisting the Republicans to lose the House is closer to MIB and for that , one should be prepared for the consequences. I don't care if Preibus is prepared or not.
Posted by: polynikes at August 16, 2013 07:24 AM (m2CN7)
Posted by: Brother Cavil, fewer than 8 limbs at August 16, 2013 07:25 AM (zUi7I)
Posted by: The Political Hat at August 16, 2013 07:25 AM (Vk2pI)
Posted by: RWC at August 16, 2013 07:25 AM (fWAjv)
Posted by: BignJames at August 16, 2013 07:26 AM (ZNQKl)
But pool is told weÂ’re going to a spot to view the family during their ride. There will be photos.
Mom jean's, girls bike and pink helmet?
Posted by: wrg500 at August 16, 2013 07:27 AM (L9Mr/)
The Republicans(tm) don't have that many actual voters, and the ones they do are concentrated in Blue States that are lost for the foreseeable future. That's one of the reasons their preferred candidates keep getting stomped.
You do know that Republicans hold 30 Governorships right?
Posted by: polynikes at August 16, 2013 07:27 AM (m2CN7)
Posted by: Karl Rove at August 16, 2013 07:27 AM (M2qTM)
Posted by: JackStraw at August 16, 2013 07:29 AM (g1DWB)
Posted by: Randall Hoven at August 16, 2013 07:30 AM (Sihtm)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at August 16, 2013 07:31 AM (WQcLz)
Posted by: DriveBy at August 16, 2013 07:32 AM (C9Vc8)
"I may not like the five cards that have been dealt to me, but those are the cards I've got in my hand, and my job on behalf of the American people is to find a way to vote with my Democratic colleagues and a Democratic president to solve America's problems," he said. "If there was one mandate that came out of the election, it was find a way to work together to address our problems."
Posted by: willow at August 16, 2013 07:33 AM (nqBYe)
Posted by: rockmom at August 16, 2013 07:33 AM (Ea7Up)
You do know that Republicans hold 30 Governorships right?
Posted by: polynikes
Assuming you're referring to Republican governors in Blue States such as Christie -- that "Republican" is pretty darned nuanced. And seems to have limited influence in helping winning other races in that state, including that for President.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2013 07:34 AM (kdS6q)
>>>Gotta be a candidate that appeals to both.
WTF does that matter? Nominate the Tea Party candidate and back them. They'll become Establishment shortly after. Win-Win, I guess???
Posted by: Bigby's Roshambo at August 16, 2013 07:35 AM (3ZtZW)
I have gotten this idea from watching the lack of standing up by republicans / standing up by anyone but a couple lone reporters and 1 atf guy on fast and furious.
who is openly standing up re Benghazi? where's Ham, Petreaus, etc?
Posted by: willow at August 16, 2013 07:36 AM (nqBYe)
Posted by: Major Kong at August 16, 2013 07:37 AM (ChpRS)
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2013 11:34 AM (kdS6q)
That's one. What about the other 29? Romney I believe won 25 states IIRC. Maybe 24. I understand the LIB mentality but it should not be because of the belief that the Dem voters far outnumber us.
Posted by: polynikes at August 16, 2013 07:37 AM (m2CN7)
So in essence the Old Community Organizer in chief is using Obamacare to fund his voter drives. They already know where all the LIV voters are; they will simply establish contact and keep it up until Election Day 2014. They will drive them to the polls. They will scare them into thinking the GOP will take away their food stamps and now their "free" medical care too.
Obamacare: Voter outreach 2012 on steroids, paid for by we the taxpayers.
Posted by: PJ at August 16, 2013 07:38 AM (ZWaLo)
Posted by: The Political Hat at August 16, 2013 07:39 AM (Vk2pI)
If the true con base was as big as some keep insisting that wouldn't be the case.
Posted by: JackStraw
The party has a conservative voter base, but not a conservative leadership or funding base. And unfortunately, that's the gatekeeper role that gets the moderate candidate through the primaries, just to lose in the general.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2013 07:39 AM (kdS6q)
New type of concern troll discovered: "I'm a SUPER conservative and I'm STAYING HOME."
So, what's the pay like at OFA these days, guys?
Posted by: DriveBy at August 16, 2013 11:32 AM (C9Vc
A little better than what Rove's paying you, chucklenuts.
Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at August 16, 2013 07:39 AM (zF6Iw)
Posted by: 13times at August 16, 2013 07:40 AM (fGPLK)
That's one. What about the other 29?
Posted by: polynikes
The last two Republican governors of Florida.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2013 07:42 AM (kdS6q)
“And let me offer an advance warning to the old, big spending, do nothing, me first, country second Washington crowd: Change is coming.”
McCain discussed his time as a prisoner of war in the Vietnam War and what it did for him, changing him from a self-serving, independent person into a man who put America first.
“I’m not running for president because I think I’m blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save our country in its hour of need,” McCain said to laughs.
“My country saved me, and I cannot forget it. And I will fight for her for as long as I draw breath, so help me God.”
Building up to perhaps the most powerful moment in the evening, McCain continued to say he will fight every day as the president.
“I’m going to fight to make sure every American has every reason to thank God, as I thank him,” he said.
“That I’m an American, a proud citizen of the greatest country on earth, and with hard work, strong faith and a little courage, great things are always within our reach.”
Then he encouraged everybody to fight with him, and the crowd immediately stood up and begin cheering.
Rather than pausing, McCain provoked them more by speaking over their cheers, telling them what they should be fighting for.
“Fight for what’s right for our country. Fight for the ideals and character of a free people. Fight for our children’s future,” McCain said, the yells of the audience growing with each sentence.
“Stand up for each other. For beautiful, blessed, bountiful America.”
yeah sure.
Posted by: willow at August 16, 2013 07:45 AM (nqBYe)
#178 Christie got elected because voters in New Jersey finally had had enough of the corruption and waste foisted on them by a series of clownish Democratic governors. Christie ran as the grownup, the fierce prosecutor who fought corruption and won, who would put a stop to the New Jersey jokes. It was not really a Republican/Democrat election, it was a Corrupt Bastard vs. Honest Prosecutor election. This is why Christie hasn't been able to grow the Party very much, though it has picked up a few seats in the state legislature.
In a way it gives me hope for America, because the Democrats have screwed up America as badly as they did New Jersey, and at some point people do get fed up and vote the bastards out. But there has to be a grownup as an alternative. I personally think Christie could be that guy, but I'm not convinced. My big fear is tat Hillary runs as the grownup and the GOP runs an inexperienced clown.
Posted by: rockmom at August 16, 2013 07:46 AM (Ea7Up)
Posted by: polynikes at August 16, 2013 11:13 AM (m2CN7)
Funny how you seem to think that it makes any fucking difference whether the Dems take over or not. The GOP establishment is no different from the Dem establishment. The Dems want one party rule, and the GOP is fucking on board with it. Why should I vote for that shit?
Posted by: maddogg at August 16, 2013 07:48 AM (xWW96)
How many years have I been here?
If OFA's paying me it must be in angst bucks...because all I am feeling these days is dread.
Posted by: sven10077 at August 16, 2013 07:49 AM (A4hKL)
Posted by: rockmom at August 16, 2013 11:46 AM (Ea7Up)
Grown ups don't draw hearts around pictures of Barack Obama.
Christie may be a grownup in the fucked up hell hole that is New Jersery politics. But he's a petulant child in the country.
Posted by: buzzion at August 16, 2013 07:49 AM (LI48c)
New type of concern troll discovered: "I'm a SUPER conservative and I'm STAYING HOME."
So.........I guess you are calling Ace a concern troll? He has pretty much said the same thing. (Not Super Conservative, but tired of being lied to).
I believe his statement wan along the lines of "The divorce is final"
Posted by: FITP at August 16, 2013 07:51 AM (M5HFX)
The GOP is in the business of staying in business.
They have more in common with the opposition than in being the opposition, except when they are dealing with or confronted by freedom loving Constitutional Conservatives.
Posted by: ontherocks at August 16, 2013 07:52 AM (Q1z4T)
You gotta admit it is neat material...
Sven J Olafson....
Axelbot....
hey GOP fuck you...enjoy.
Posted by: sven10077 at August 16, 2013 07:52 AM (A4hKL)
Now Buzz Rockmom thinks DonkeyLand may be ready for grown-ups...and nothing says grown-up like a fucking human tank being jealous of Reggie Love and Writing "Chris Christie-Obama" on his trapper keeper for two months...
Posted by: sven10077 at August 16, 2013 07:54 AM (A4hKL)
Posted by: Vyce at August 16, 2013 08:13 AM (mqy6N)
Let it burn.
Lets see all the rats and cockroaches in the light of day.
Then and only then does redress so crucial to preservation of Liberty begin on a scale and scope that assures victory.
Posted by: Mt Top Patriot at August 16, 2013 08:16 AM (mEMHM)
Posted by: bigggggles at August 16, 2013 08:21 AM (0a/7L)
Posted by: ahem at August 16, 2013 08:23 AM (lKGzI)
Posted by: Vote Lord Humungus 2016 at August 16, 2013 11:02 AM (HEa5q)
Ain't gonna happen. He will be overwhelmingly re-elected here in NJ. He's even getting support from Democrat mayors for his "after Sandy" performance. Overall, he's been good for NJ.
http://tinyurl.com/kcrt6aw
Posted by: thatcrazyjerseyguy at August 16, 2013 08:24 AM (TPimP)
It's gonna be a lot closer than people think. The Republican Will Not Turn Out for Christie.
Posted by: soothsayer lightfoot at August 16, 2013 10:41 AM
I'd actually laugh my ass off if the fat fuck actually lost. It's not like it's going to make any difference if NJ has a Dem in charge other than teachers unions getting their sweet deals back
Posted by: kbdabear at August 16, 2013 08:29 AM (/9IC1)
Bera beat Dan Lungren and is now my congressional representative.
Shall I quote Hillary about "difference?"
Posted by: DM at August 16, 2013 10:42 AM (iwffa)
DM: Where in Sactown are you? I was in Lungren's district until reapportionment put me in Ditzy Doris Matsui's district. I think the reapportionment is what gave the crypto Demunist Ami Bera the ability to unseat Lungren.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at August 16, 2013 08:43 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: LiveFromRussianHill at August 16, 2013 08:45 AM (nbrug)
I wouldn't give a rat's ass if the Fat Fuck and the rest of the Bush Family's retainers and caporegimes go down in flames.
They've been stabbing conservatives in the back for fifty years now, ever since the Goldwater-Miller nomination at the Cow Palace in San Francisco in 1964. Shoot, the only "centrist" to stand by Barry back then was Nixon, and that's because he shrewdly understood that he would need the conservatives in 1968. It paid off, in spades, when Tricky Dick was challenged by that whippersnapper young Governor from California, who was told by Strom Thurmond to bide his time, that his day would come.
The Moderates are in the Pay of K-Street. They will stab us in the back. Bet on it. They stabbed Palin in the back when she kept the Tea Party people on board in 2009 and 2010.
It's what they do. Fuck 'em.
Posted by: section9 at August 16, 2013 08:47 AM (CUoon)
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at August 16, 2013 08:54 AM (1hM1d)
Nope, not any more. If I can't get my turncoat sellout via the primary, I will vote for the Dem.
I told him I would if he voted immigration out of the Senate, and I'm a man of my word.
I am NOT the R party's bitch.
Posted by: FITP at August 16, 2013 11:13 AM (M5HFX)
Uh no. NEVER vote for the Commiecrat. If your GOP general election candidate is a RINO putz, then Vote for the "American Independent / US Taxpayers/ Constitution / whatever they are calling themselves in your state" Party, but NEVER vote for the Commiecrat.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at August 16, 2013 09:07 AM (ujg0T)
3rd party has NO chance of taking Lamar Alexander out. I don't merely want to register my displeasure with a contrarian vote, I want him GONE. Its the only thing they will understand.
Same goes for Corker when his time comes.....in fact, he is worse, just hasn't been at it as long.
Posted by: FITP at August 16, 2013 09:23 AM (M5HFX)
Then your vote will be misinterpreted as Commiecrat support. Registering displeasure would be better in that case.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at August 16, 2013 09:40 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: Strife at August 16, 2013 09:59 AM (Ojgjr)
When Paul Krugman wailed against some Clinton policy in his first year which he claimed would lead to recession, Carville noted, "We need to listen to Krugman, he's successfully predicted 19 of the last three recessions."
Posted by: Adjoran at August 16, 2013 10:12 AM (473jB)
Dead nuts on.
I sure as shit will not vote this time for my representative, John Carter, after he voted to continue funding the NSA's blanket spying on Americans. And if John Cornyn survives his primary challenge (likely), I goddamn sure won't be going to the polls for his sorry beltway ass either.
Posted by: thirteen28 at August 16, 2013 10:23 AM (AbmsP)
Lucy promises *this* time she won't pull the football when Charlie Brown tries yet another kick.
Yah, fuck you spineless GOP sellouts. I'm not wasting my time on you.
Posted by: Fen at August 16, 2013 12:02 PM (a422o)
Got that right. The House is supposed to be controlled by the opposition and they haven't done much opposing lately.
Posted by: Blacque Jacques Shellacque at August 16, 2013 04:18 PM (Cn4aq)
Posted by: cormac_mcroadie at August 16, 2013 06:44 PM (4HsUp)
Alienating thy own base is the surest path to making them stay home, ensuring the GOP loses the House in 14. Passing amnesty will do it.
Game. Set. Match.
Posted by: Mehnow at August 17, 2013 06:31 AM (pdjAb)
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Posted by: Bayou City at August 16, 2013 06:37 AM (8yWf/)