Ace of Spades HQ

November 26, 2013

!
— CAC

Dick Durbin (D) 51%
Jim Oberweis (R) 36%

Per far-right-wing pollster Public Policy Polling.

Now, PPP writes it off casually as the Republican's ceiling, "unless the political climate gets even more toxic for Democrats nationally." I would disagree to a degree: with polling showing no bottom in sight, millions yet to have their policies cancelled, and the latest word about Healthcare.gov missing it's end-of-week deadline, do the Democrats really think the ten point collapse in generic ballot preference from the shutdown to now has suddenly stopped?

Senator Dick Durbin has nothing to really fear next year. He will win, by at least 10 points, because he is Dick Durbin, and this is Illinois. But the sampled electorate already shows a considerable shift to the right: the state voted for Obama by more than 17 points, but the electorate polls claimed they did so by 9. The President's approval rating is barely above water here- 50-46- and this is Illinois.

If the numbers have gotten that sour in the Land of Lincoln, how about elsewhere?

Conservative Intel and Harper Polling teamed up to check up on neighboring Iowa, and, well, I'll let David Freddoso run down the results:

The survey of 985 likely Iowa voters, conducted on November 23 and 24 by Harper Polling, finds the likely Democratic nominee, U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, with a slim lead against all comers. But despite a near-total lack of name recognition among the Republicans in this race, each of them holds Braley in the low 40s, and some trail within the margin of error in head-to-head matchups.
The poll also finds a slight Republican lead on the generic Senate ballot, 42 to 38 percent...The poll finds that likely Iowa voters disapprove of Obamacare, 54 to 34 percent, and that 52 percent say they are more likely to vote for an Obamacare opponent, versus 39 percent who say they are more likely to vote for an Obamacare supporter.
President Obama himself suffers a 21-point approval deficit in Iowa, with 55 percent disapproving of his performance and only 34 percent approving.

The President carried this state by six points just a year ago, so this makes a nearly thirty point drop out of his favor. There are six other seats in swing states occupied or soon-to-be vacated by a Democrat, and another six seats in states that went by large margins to Mitt Romney.

There is a four letter word that rhymes with rave I dare not speak for fear of jinxing it.

But with South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana clearly polling as Republican pickups; Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa and Michigan also polling as battlegrounds; and Merkley, Shaheen, and Franken now open to "fixing" Obamacare, it's hard not to read into the future and smile, just a bit.

I'm tempted.

Maybe I'll even make a map. At The Federalist.

Posted by: CAC at 02:20 PM | Comments (193)
Post contains 488 words, total size 3 kb.

1 Nothing to see here...

Posted by: The Democrats at November 26, 2013 02:20 PM (8ZskC)

2 I only want to know one thing: Do we retake the Senate---Yes or No

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 26, 2013 02:21 PM (t3UFN)

3 *GOP wins historic election* Obamacare? We're not even touching that! But check out this cool stack of free trade treaties!!!

Posted by: The GOP at November 26, 2013 02:21 PM (oFCZn)

4 As Franken goes, so goes the country.

Posted by: Cicero Kid at November 26, 2013 02:21 PM (6fSty)

5 Let's see, Franken won by vote fraud from the Lizard People, so he may be in serious trouble this time.

Posted by: Registered Voter at November 26, 2013 02:23 PM (Hdbf3)

6 What about Pennsylvania?

Posted by: Dr Spank at November 26, 2013 02:24 PM (xlX1p)

7 >>I only want to know one thing: Do we retake the Senate---Yes or No Yes. But that was my prediction months ago.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 26, 2013 02:24 PM (g1DWB)

8 >>At The Federalist.

....Dickhole.

Posted by: Lou at November 26, 2013 02:24 PM (VrJUC)

9 Friends, cuntrymen, lend me your LIVs

Posted by: The Jackhole at November 26, 2013 02:25 PM (nTgAI)

10 Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 26, 2013 06:21 PM (t3UFN) My current answer, because we are the Party of Stupid that thinks introducing immigration legislation will help them in the midterms, managed to nominate bores in Montana and North Dakota blowing two easy races, nominated Todd "Magical Vaginas" Akin, and that still foolishly thinks Virginia is more favorable to Republicans than Pennsylvanial, is no. That's an awful lot of stupid to fix in a year. But I can see a 5 seat win now easily. One more, and that's party time.

Posted by: CAC at November 26, 2013 02:25 PM (AdVnn)

11 Fukkin tease

Posted by: Zakn at November 26, 2013 02:26 PM (zyaZ1)

12 CAC, I appreciate your breakdowns but after getting my hopes up in 2012 then having my heart irretrievably broken, I can't be hopeful about this country's electoral future.

Maybe 2014 will change me back to an optimistic person.

Posted by: DangerGirl, home sweet home at November 26, 2013 02:26 PM (GrtrJ)

13 >>At The Federalist. Ha! Now thats some funny shit.

Posted by: Chuck at November 26, 2013 02:26 PM (dSkY8)

14 Thanks CAC,

And I was about to give up fapping to political news for Hanukah!

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at November 26, 2013 02:26 PM (oJ5Fd)

Has someone checked if the sales of Chia Obama are down.

CAC ?

Posted by: The Jackhole at November 26, 2013 02:26 PM (nTgAI)

16 Whole lotta clusterfuck to go between now and next Nov.

Posted by: Purp[/i][/b][/s] at November 26, 2013 02:26 PM (Xlbr8)

17 "I'm Al Franken, and I like to have sex with dead sheep. Thank you for your support Twin Cities, and as for the rest of Minnesota, callmewhen your sheep are dead. I'll fuck them and you too!"

Posted by: OG Celtic-American at November 26, 2013 02:27 PM (vHRtU)

18 Obama doesn't care what his polling numbers are. He isn't campaigning for a third term.

We still don't know for certain he will actually vacate the White House, but he doesn't need poll numbers to continue to reside there, he just needs a loyal army and the audacity to make the attempt.

Posted by: Well of Caring depleted at November 26, 2013 02:27 PM (sOAZM)

19 If the Dems lose the Senate that would be awesome but I want to see a pic of someone hitting Harry Reid so hard he twists up and looks like Oswald in that picture when Ruby shot him.

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at November 26, 2013 02:28 PM (oFCZn)

20 Save? Raid? Pave? Dave? Rail? Cave? I am not good with word problems.

Posted by: Inspector Cussword at November 26, 2013 02:28 PM (BXo5H)

21 2 I only want to know one thing: Do we retake the Senate---Yes or No Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 26, 2013 06:21 PM (t3UFN) No, fuck no, I wish, but being the pessimist I am. The GOP will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Hope I am wrong, dead wrong

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at November 26, 2013 02:28 PM (HVff2)

22 right now, going by memory its 14 R's up for election and 21 D's in the Senate. Lets say all the R's win their own seat back, and win all the dem seats too. This is where I have to look shit up. Hold on. Yeah, they could have 66 seats in the Senate. And Reid would be worrying about ordering some lime for his crawl space. But thats slightly OT.

Posted by: UWP at November 26, 2013 02:29 PM (fdXMW)

23 We have a chance of getting rid of Durbin? SCOAMF is toxic!

Posted by: CarolT at November 26, 2013 02:29 PM (2x+V2)

24 There is a four letter word that rhymes with rave I dare not speak for fear of jinxing it. Dave's not here, man.

Posted by: rickb223 at November 26, 2013 02:29 PM (cUARf)

25 What's amazing is Oberweis getting more than 10%.

Posted by: somebody else, not me at November 26, 2013 02:29 PM (29vnO)

26 Not to worry. All GOP primaries will be won by blue-skinned Libertarian Nudists who will insist on debating in Klingon, with their campaign platforms based on the immediate legalization of heroin.

Posted by: Idaho Spudboy at November 26, 2013 02:29 PM (6k1xv)

Maybe I'll even make a map.

At The Federalist.

If The Federalist gets plaid maps, I'm gonna have to cut a bitch......

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at November 26, 2013 02:30 PM (TIIx5)

28 I WANT A PLAID MAP!

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at November 26, 2013 02:30 PM (oJ5Fd)

29 If they allow the employer mandate to go into effect, Katie bar the door.

Posted by: Biff Boffo at November 26, 2013 02:31 PM (1j9qS)

30 I'm Al Franken, and I like to have sex with dead sheep. Thank you for your support Twin Cities, and as for the rest of Minnesota, callmewhen your sheep are dead. I'll fuck them and you too!"

Posted by: OG Celtic-American at November 26, 2013 06:27 PM (vHRtU)

Baaaaad

Posted by: The Jackhole at November 26, 2013 02:32 PM (nTgAI)

31 29 If they allow the employer mandate to go into effect, Katie bar the door. Posted by: Biff Boffo at November 26, 2013 06:31 PM (1j9qS) You know that magic wand? Yeah I thought so

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at November 26, 2013 02:32 PM (HVff2)

32 Jim Oberweis? Really, Illinois? He's gonna skew the numbers toward Durbin. Oberweis has run for office and lost so many times that he's radioactive. Senate in 2002 and 2004. The state Republicans opted to bring in Alan Keyes after the Jack Ryan debacle instead of bumping up Oberweis who finished second in the primary. He ran for Governor in 2006 and finished second in that primary too. And he lost Hastert's congressional seat in the both the special election and then the followup election nine months later despite Hastert's endorsement. But he finally won a state senate seat in 2012? Awful. *shakes his head*

Posted by: Walter Freeman at November 26, 2013 02:32 PM (kqGWM)

33 Republicans need to run one ad and on ad only which emphasizes the fact that their election is the ONLY thing standing in the way of everyone losing their health insurance.

This is your last chance dumbasses.

Posted by: Thatch at November 26, 2013 02:33 PM (qYvEa)

34 The ubiquitous voter fraud by the DNC and it's organized communist scumbag outfits and other assorted criminal leftist groups hasn't been figured into any of this.

The DNC will win wherever the DNC feels it is important to win, regardless of piddly things like actual voter numbers.

Posted by: Grimmy at November 26, 2013 02:34 PM (uUsh9)

Maybe I'll even make a map.

At The Federalist.

So help me, if The Federalist gets a plaid map I will something something.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD, you taunty bitch. at November 26, 2013 02:34 PM (Gk3SS)

36 No flaming skull for you!

Posted by: Boone at November 26, 2013 02:35 PM (3p8HS)

37 Depressing. Dead ppl vote in IL. Durbin wins. Idiots like Akin nominated elsewhere, d's win. Until the r's nominate winners w focus on fiscal responsibility and staying out of ppl's personal lives, the d's will counter and win w "war on women", because LIV's make the difference.

Posted by: NeverEvermore at November 26, 2013 02:35 PM (hRV3r)

38 New polls released today show the Illinois governor race CLOOOOOSE. One candidate (Rutherford) is +2, two others (Brady, my choice, and Dillard) are TIED, and another (Rauner) is -3. So, if Quinn is in trouble here, I see no reason why we can't hope it means Durbin is, too. Plus, Durbin's name is on the "Dirty Dozen who voted for Obamacare" list.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at November 26, 2013 02:36 PM (KL49F)

39 And I was about to give up fapping to political news for Hanukah! So Hanukah is like Christmas AND Lent? Interesting.

Posted by: bonhomme[/i][/b][/i][/b] at November 26, 2013 02:36 PM (sByIH)

40 Oh good; I always enjoy it when we have some knock down drag out fights here about soc cons. :^(

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at November 26, 2013 02:36 PM (23Kgq)

41 Thatch is right, it's last chance to be rid of Obamacare!

Posted by: CarolT at November 26, 2013 02:36 PM (2x+V2)

42 So help me, if The Federalist gets a plaid map I will something something.-AtC His map last week at The Federalist was pretty, but not plaid. I still don't know why a So. Cal guy would like to move here to the tundra. Perhaps he wants to wear a plaid parka

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at November 26, 2013 02:36 PM (HVff2)

43 Whatever is building it has to be huge in order to knock out well perfected voter fraud.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at November 26, 2013 02:37 PM (23Kgq)

OK, some of you. We "win" the Senate.

So what? What then?

(and since barely being able to believe anything I have seen since 2006, I remain skeptical that, even in these extreme political conditions, the GOP will win)

Posted by: non-purist at November 26, 2013 02:37 PM (afQnV)

45 We have to do what the dems do: Stay on message and go negative

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 26, 2013 02:38 PM (t3UFN)

46 As an ex-Illinoisan, screw Oberweis. Overrated dairy, multiple time political loser and won't go away because I'm pretty sure he self-funds most of his candidacies. Go drag Jim Edgar out of retirement, squishy as he'd probably be, and we can talk about kicking out Durbin. Maybe he'd run on a "Pick the governor who didn't go to prison" campaign!

Posted by: Matthew at November 26, 2013 02:38 PM (OGv7Y)

47 I hope Franken has his diaper on when he loses, cause he is liable yo crap all over the place.

Posted by: Killerdog at November 26, 2013 02:39 PM (TVjbH)

48 OK, some of you. We "win" the Senate. So what? What then? We change the filibuster rules back and stop obama dead in his tracks for starters, and that ain't a bad start

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 26, 2013 02:39 PM (t3UFN)

49 40 Oh good; I always enjoy it when we have some knock down drag out fights here about soc cons. :^( Posted by: FenelonSpoke at November 26, 2013 06:36 PM (23Kgq) Must be moo moo's long lost sibling.

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at November 26, 2013 02:39 PM (HVff2)

50 Looks like the margins are narrow enough that a little voter fraud will be able to pull the dems over the top.

Posted by: Soona at November 26, 2013 02:40 PM (FtgP2)

51 So best case scenario, and it kind of sucks in a way. The R's can only get 66 seats in the next election as of now. So it will take another two years to gain the other seat needed to then take a vote in the Senate and expel 33 dems from their seats just for fun.

Posted by: UWP at November 26, 2013 02:40 PM (fdXMW)

52 There's still a year to go -- plenty of time for the GOP to step on their dick with steel spiked golf shoes.

Amnesty, taking on a fix for 404Care, hiring Code Pink as their official spokesgroup -- they will think of something.

Posted by: GnuBreed at November 26, 2013 02:40 PM (wNF3N)

53 @46: Jim Edgar would trounce Durbin. Unfortunately, that also means it'll never happen.

Posted by: Walter Freeman at November 26, 2013 02:40 PM (kqGWM)

54 Brady almost won the gubernatorial race in '10, the count went on for days because it was that close. And Brady is no squish, he's a very conservative guy and he almost won. Illinois. There's hope. A little, but it's there.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at November 26, 2013 02:40 PM (KL49F)

55 Maybe I'll even make a map. Go big or go home, dude. I'm tired of those puny little maps I can hardly see on my monitor. I wanna hear the pixels snap to attention at 4,800 by 9,600 while my fiber optic connection vainly attempts to keep up.

Posted by: Boring Dude [/i] at November 26, 2013 02:40 PM (1H61p)

56 There is a four letter word that rhymes with rave I dare not speak for fear of jinxing it.
Cave?

Posted by: zombie doctor freud at November 26, 2013 02:41 PM (JlX6q)

57 Posted by: GnuBreed at November 26, 2013 06:40 PM (wNF3N) Exactly. Plus we had the White House, house & senate and what did it get us? The beloved gang of 7, spits deep lugi, Medicare expanded, and compassionate conservative overspending

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at November 26, 2013 02:42 PM (HVff2)

58 Posted by: non-purist at November 26, 2013 06:37 PM (afQnV)

If McConnell can be successfully primaried by Bevin, than we have a great chance with a GOP majority Senate ACTUALLY stopping Obama -- but if Mitchie remains a Senate leader, kiss true reform goodbye. He's a hateful, spiteful little man who is a Democrat in GOP clothes.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at November 26, 2013 02:42 PM (KL49F)

59 "CAC, I appreciate your breakdowns but after getting my hopes up in 2012 then having my heart irretrievably broken, I can't be hopeful about this country's electoral future." Ditto. Also, who cares what Bammer's ratings are? Hillary's or maybe even Cuomo's ratings matter WAY more.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at November 26, 2013 02:43 PM (S+fbC)

60 Keep dreaming....

Posted by: The Criminals formerly known as ACORN at November 26, 2013 02:43 PM (Aif/5)

61 The (R)etards WILL manage to fuck up everything they touch.

Join True The Vote, and Volunteer as a poll watcher... We MUST stop as much as possible the 'trunk of the Prius' voting...

DO IT!

Posted by: OG Celtic-American at November 26, 2013 02:43 PM (vHRtU)

62 >>OK, some of you. We "win" the Senate. >>So what? What then? Then we are in business. Will Obama sign a repeal? highly unlikely. But instead of Cruz doing a lonely and ultimately futile filibuster in the Senate you get repeal, defunding, death by a thousand cuts legislation that passes in the Senate by a 51 vote majority (thanks Harry Reid you insufferable douchebag) and the House of course. We stop playing defense and start playing offense. No more playing by Obama's agenda, we start setting the agenda. Will Republicans let us down from time to time? Of course. They are politicians. But Obamacare is well on its way to the dustbin and we start moving this country in our direction for a change instead of just fighting against the tide.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 26, 2013 02:43 PM (g1DWB)

63 Iran's President Hassan Rohani said Israel has become isolated after his country and world powers reached a historical deal on Tehran's nuclear program. In a Tuesday interview with state TV marking his first 100 days in office, Rohani said that some countries had tried to isolate Iran but instead, "Now, our enemies are isolated." And Iran also said obama lied? Something is seriously wrong when I find myself agreeing with Iran so often?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 26, 2013 02:44 PM (t3UFN)

64 56 There is a four letter word that rhymes with rave I dare not speak for fear of jinxing it. Cave? Posted by: zombie doctor freud at November 26, 2013 06:41 PM (JlX6q) Dave?

Posted by: Romeo13 at November 26, 2013 02:45 PM (lZBBB)

65 We stop playing defense and start playing offense. No more playing by Obama's agenda, we start setting the agenda. Will Republicans let us down from time to time? Of course. They are politicians. But Obamacare is well on its way to the dustbin and we start moving this country in our direction for a change instead of just fighting against the tide. Posted by: JackStraw at November 26, 2013 06:43 PM (g1DWB) From your post to G-D's ear

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 26, 2013 02:45 PM (t3UFN)

66 If McConnell can be successfully primaried by Bevin, than we have a great chance with a GOP majority Senate ACTUALLY stopping Obama -- but if Mitchie remains a Senate leader, kiss true reform goodbye. He's a hateful, spiteful little man who is a Democrat in GOP clothes.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at November 26, 2013 06:42 PM (KL49F)

---------------------------------------------

Yup. The key to stopping anything is a repub leadership housecleaning. Without that, it'll be more of the same.

Posted by: Soona at November 26, 2013 02:45 PM (FtgP2)

67 I might care more about this if the GOP had shown any interest in fighting Obama. Instead it's always "Punch the Tea Party in the mouth."

Posted by: Methos at November 26, 2013 02:47 PM (hO9ad)

68 oh deer here we go again

Posted by: soothsayer is connectin the dots at November 26, 2013 02:47 PM (nsl5Y)

69 In Nov 2011, everyone was convinced Obama would lose and the GOP would take the Senate in 2012. Intrade had the GOP winning the senate at 85%. Just sayin...

Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at November 26, 2013 02:47 PM (0LHZx)

70 because he is Dick Durbin, and this is Illinois Yes, it's true, this man is a dick.

Posted by: Dr. Peter Venkman at November 26, 2013 02:47 PM (gzcUh)

71 I'll join the others from IL who would like to see Jim Edgar beat the daylights outa Durbin. Won't happen tho, he's got some health issues and seems to be very happily retired. Also agree Oberweis is toxic. He and one of his primary opponents ran such a negative campaign one time it turned me off of him forever.

Posted by: The Farmer at November 26, 2013 02:47 PM (eBupg)

There is a four letter word that rhymes with rave I dare not speak for fear of jinxing it.

Cave?

Posted by: zombie doctor freud at November 26, 2013 06:41 PM (JlX6q)

Dave?

Posted by: Romeo13 at November 26, 2013 06:45 PM (lZBBB)

-----------------------------------------

Slave?

Posted by: Soona at November 26, 2013 02:48 PM (FtgP2)

73 guy by the name of TRUAX is running for the GOP slot in Illinois. US Army Ranger. Check the guy out (he's a pointy)

Posted by: TheThinMan at November 26, 2013 02:48 PM (OYe5i)

74 Railway chunnel?

Posted by: zombie doctor freud at November 26, 2013 02:48 PM (JlX6q)

75 67 I might care more about this if the GOP had shown any interest in fighting Obama. Instead it's always "Punch the Tea Party in the mouth." Posted by: Methos at November 26, 2013 06:47 PM (hO9ad) What news have you been following? It's more like kick the tea partiers in the gonads.

Posted by: Misanthropic Humanitarian at November 26, 2013 02:48 PM (HVff2)

76

Whoo hoo! Just 14 months away from Senate Foreign Affairs Chairman John McCain!?

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 26, 2013 02:48 PM (kdS6q)

77 We MUST stop as much as possible the 'trunk of the Prius' voting... Note to self; gonna need a bigger ~~boat~~ car.

Posted by: Alf Franken [/i] at November 26, 2013 02:49 PM (1H61p)

78 from CAC's link: "The poll finds that likely Iowa voters disapprove of Obamacare, 54 to 34 percent, and that 52 percent say they are more likely to vote for an Obamacare opponent, versus 39 percent who say they are more likely to vote for an Obamacare supporter. " All Democrats will run on removing Obamacare. This is not rocket science.

Posted by: jwb7605[/i][/u][/b] at November 26, 2013 02:49 PM (Qxe/p)

79 MAP??? *attaches safety harness to laptop*

Posted by: Meremortal at November 26, 2013 02:49 PM (1Y+hH)

80 by the way here is a preview or what will happen if the GOP wins big next year... "A leading hopeful in the GOP primary for the open Georgia Senate seat suggested Monday that it's not "the responsible thing to do" for Republicans to let the federal health-care law fail without trying to fix it. Noting his own legislative fix for small businesses, Kingston defended the idea that he would do something to improve the law rather than let it die." And this is a Republican from....GEORGIA for fuck's sake. I can see a Rep from a purple district in Ohio or Florida saying this. But Georgia? WHAT THE FUCK?

Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at November 26, 2013 02:49 PM (0LHZx)

81 Love to see Durbin go down. More concerned about Kirk staying in, but that comes later. Mew

Posted by: acat at November 26, 2013 02:49 PM (gGEmy)

82 Glaive?

Posted by: zombie medieval warrior at November 26, 2013 02:49 PM (JlX6q)

83 Did you write this post on Uranus?

Posted by: soothsayer is connectin the dots at November 26, 2013 02:50 PM (nsl5Y)

84 Governor of Illinois is irrelevant as long as Mike Madigan is in control of the Illinois Assembly and his daughter, Lisa Madigan, is attorney general. The one-two knockout. Oberweis is a jerk and a perennial loser -- there is really very little Republican Party in Illinois so he is the leader by default. Talk about party of stupid. Dillard is very nice --too nice for Illinois politics. Just started seeing ads for some of the other ones running for guv and have not drilled down yet.

Posted by: Mustbequantum at November 26, 2013 02:50 PM (MIKMs)

85 "We have to do what the dems do: Stay on message and go negative." Ugh! That reminds me (FL resident that I am) of waiting for some negative ads from Rombley to show up on TV, and then waiting for any ads from Rombley to show up on TV, and then just sitting there dumbstruck that all I saw was Obama all the time. And a few people responded with "Just sit back and watch how it's done these days!" Yeah, about that...

Posted by: Burn the Witch at November 26, 2013 02:51 PM (S+fbC)

86 Blave, it means to bluff. You must owe him money.

Posted by: bonhomme[/i][/b][/i][/b] at November 26, 2013 02:51 PM (sByIH)

87 Remember Harry Reid's numbers? Sharon Angle is another example of the importance of choosing a candidate that appeals to the voting public.

Posted by: NeverEvermore at November 26, 2013 02:51 PM (hRV3r)

88 I know... staves!

Posted by: zombie medieval warrior at November 26, 2013 02:52 PM (JlX6q)

89 Love to see Durbin go down. More concerned about Kirk staying in, but that comes later. This cat is a filthy pervert.

Posted by: bonhomme[/i][/b][/i][/b] at November 26, 2013 02:52 PM (sByIH)

90 knave?

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at November 26, 2013 02:52 PM (oFCZn)

91 Posted by: bonhomme at November 26, 2013 06:51 PM (sByIH) /golfclap... Well played.... well played...

Posted by: Romeo13 at November 26, 2013 02:52 PM (lZBBB)

92 'Cunt"

The 'unt' is actually spelled 'Throat Warbler Mangrove' in Welsh and pronounced 'zunt'

Posted by: OG Celtic-American at November 26, 2013 02:53 PM (vHRtU)

93 I'm disappointed in ace -- he should have stomped this thread by now.

Totes by, get this, accident.

Posted by: GnuBreed at November 26, 2013 02:53 PM (wNF3N)

94 And let me guess...this dude Oberweis will be sending out mass emails begging for money. Cuz you know, my super duper top secret poll shows I am only within 2% of beating Durbin. And for just $50 you too can help me defeat him. And then he loses by 17% and keeps the money.

Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at November 26, 2013 02:53 PM (0LHZx)

95 Oh, yes, good. Let's have some more of CAC's election predictions. I remember how well those turned out for us a little over a year ago.

Which is my snarky and impolite way of saying, I'm prepared to fill one hand with hope, but I'll wait for someone with a better track record from last year to provide me with a basis for my hope. Someone like, say, Nate Silver.

Yes, to answer your question, that does taste like ashes. Still tastes better than what I filled the other hand up with last year.

Posted by: Demosthenes at November 26, 2013 02:54 PM (c5AtG)

96 Truax is the answer

Posted by: TheThinMan at November 26, 2013 02:54 PM (se4AB)

97 To me wasting money on a senate race is idiotic. Spend the money in places you can win like Montana, Alaska, Arkansas, N. Carolina and Louisiana. These are winable but not a given. This is where you spend the time/money/energy. Then if you have some left over you go Virginia and Iowa. Only then do you even begin to think of Illinois or Michigan or Maine or Oregon.

Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at November 26, 2013 02:56 PM (0LHZx)

98 It would take a colossal fuck up for the GOP not to retake the Senate, even before the ObamaCare freefall, it was a tough cycle for Democrats. Too many deep red states for Democrats that don't belong there.

I see many Dem voters not showing up at all, they know it's going to be a drubbing.

Hopefully, we'll see another wave of Dem retirements, people don't like ending their career on a loss. Also hoping it pulls out some quality Republican challengers, it's going to be a good cycle to have an (R) next to your name.

Posted by: McAdams at November 26, 2013 02:56 PM (2TMCu)

99 I remember how well those turned out for us a little over a year ago. Yeah. Funny how little things make a difference.

Posted by: Chris Christie with an industrial strength rubber band across his humongous gut [/i] at November 26, 2013 02:56 PM (1H61p)

100 The Federalist will never be a smart military blog.

Posted by: Walter Freeman at November 26, 2013 02:56 PM (kqGWM)

101 Then we are in business. Will Obama sign a repeal? highly unlikely. But instead of Cruz doing a lonely and ultimately futile filibuster in the Senate you get repeal, defunding, death by a thousand cuts legislation that passes in the Senate by a 51 vote majority (thanks Harry Reid you insufferable douchebag) and the House of course.

Incorrect.

We get two years of nothing as the GOP gets free show votes which everyone knows Obama will veto. Which I suppose will make cheerleaders happy, but will accomplish nothing. There is no way to avoid three years of economic devastation by Obamacare short of his impeachment.

Posted by: Methos at November 26, 2013 02:56 PM (hO9ad)

102 Come to think of it, have you ever seen Dick Morris and CAC on any thread at the same time?

Posted by: Burn the Witch at November 26, 2013 02:56 PM (S+fbC)

103 I don't have faith in the electoral process in this country anymore. It's been corrupted as badly as DC.

Posted by: Soona at November 26, 2013 02:58 PM (FtgP2)

104 Two Republicans submitted petitions on the first day o filing for the primary, multi time loser Oberwies and businessman, West Point grad Doug Truax. Truax obviously has no name recognition at this point and Oberwies does. That could change fast.

Yes it is Illinois and the Cook County machine has made it very hard for Republicans to win statewide elections in recent years. That said, all that Durbin has ever had going for him is the D after his name. He isn't charismatic. He isn't even likable. He doesn't come across as other than what he is- a hyper partisan party hack. If the brand is damaged, he will be damaged in almost the same degree.

My gut feeling here is Truax could makes it a lot closer than people now think. Truax is 43. and Durbin 69. Oberwies is 67. If voters are looking to get rid of the usual political suspects Truax could be the man.

Posted by: NC Mountain Girl at November 26, 2013 02:58 PM (2yhW0)

105 Come to think of it, have you ever seen Dick Morris and CAC on any thread at the same time? The only time I want to see Dick Morris is when he's slapping Colmes around.

Posted by: bonhomme[/i][/b][/i][/b] at November 26, 2013 02:58 PM (sByIH)

106 The Federalist = Belgium AOSHQ = Peruvia Enemies forever!

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at November 26, 2013 02:58 PM (oFCZn)

107 We'll win the Senate! Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go all in on this 7-2, because I know the flop is going to be 772.

Posted by: UWP at November 26, 2013 02:58 PM (fdXMW)

108 Posted by: Mustbequantum at November 26, 2013 06:50 PM (MIKMs)

I only mentioned the governor's race because it shows there ARE conservatives in this state and that makes me hold out a little hope for other races down-ballot such as Senate.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at November 26, 2013 02:59 PM (KL49F)

109 Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go all in on this 7-2, because I know the flop is going to be 772. Well if you actually know it's going to be 7-7-2, that's a good plan.

Posted by: bonhomme[/i][/b][/i][/b] at November 26, 2013 02:59 PM (sByIH)

110 We get two years of nothing as the GOP gets free show votes which everyone knows Obama will veto. Which I suppose will make cheerleaders happy, but will accomplish nothing. There is no way to avoid three years of economic devastation by Obamacare short of his impeachment. Posted by: Methos at November 26, 2013 06:56 PM (hO9ad) __________ There's always the veto override. It's not likely, but if O-Care gets bad enough...who knows? Lots of Dems up for election in 2016 might say fuck it, I'm a party loyalist but I'm not going down with the ship for Obama who's out next year as it is.

Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at November 26, 2013 02:59 PM (0LHZx)

111 "There is a four letter word that rhymes with rave I dare not speak for fear of jinxing it. " Potato-e?

Posted by: Dan Quayle at November 26, 2013 03:00 PM (YAGV/)

112 Slave. The word is slave. You can't say it otherwise some little brown man with an english accent will demand to shit in your mouth.

Posted by: François Villon at November 26, 2013 03:00 PM (kkbgQ)

113 Posted by: Mallamutt at November 26, 2013 06:59 PM (OWjjx)

Then, let's hope someone OTHER than Oberweiss gets the nomination. Who else is running? It can't just be him (I like his politics, but, yeah, he keeps losing). DITKA should run, he would've beaten the crap out of Obama in '04.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at November 26, 2013 03:00 PM (KL49F)

114 85 Ugh! That reminds me (FL resident that I am) of waiting for some negative ads from Rombley to show up on TV, and then waiting for any ads from Rombley to show up on TV, and then just sitting there dumbstruck that all I saw was Obama all the time. OMG! I was INFURIATED seeing that damn Joe Soptic ad continuously and NO response from Mitt. Had women voters (LIV) tell me how they wanted to vote for Mitt, but afraid he was a "mean guy". Fl was lost, imo, because there were no R ads on HGTV, FX, Spike, USA. The Party of Stupid spent ALL their money in my area of FL on Fox News Ads. Duh!

Posted by: NeverEvermore at November 26, 2013 03:00 PM (hRV3r)

115 I am available for either Senate or House races as the coolest candidate known to man.

I can claim relationships to Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and am available to relocate immediately.

As a physician, I can address the entire Obamacare fuckup.

As a small business owner I can address the entire Obamanomics fuckup.

As a parent I can address the entire Obamagressive fuckup.

Call me ASAP.

Posted by: OG Celtic-American at November 26, 2013 03:00 PM (vHRtU)

116 Illinois is just building hate for my lifestyle!

Posted by: Lesbian Waitress at November 26, 2013 03:01 PM (eHIJJ)

117 Potato is certainly a jinxed word. Irish potato famine. Raw food dieters cannot eat potatoes. Think about it, people!

Posted by: bonhomme[/i][/b][/i][/b] at November 26, 2013 03:01 PM (sByIH)

118 PS about Ditka, he says it's his greatest regret that he didn't run against Bammy in '04, so he could try to make up for it and beat Dick Durbin.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at November 26, 2013 03:01 PM (KL49F)

119 "Truax is the answer" That name alone should be worth 8-10 points. Strong, active, warrior-like, memorable, easy to read on a bumpersticker....

Posted by: Meremortal at November 26, 2013 03:01 PM (1Y+hH)

120 73 guy by the name of TRUAX is running for the GOP slot in Illinois. US Army Ranger. Check the guy out (he's a pointy) Posted by: TheThinMan at November 26, 2013 06:48 PM

He belongs to the Elbow Party?

Posted by: kbdabear at November 26, 2013 03:01 PM (aTXUx)

121 Stave?

Posted by: Paris Hilton at November 26, 2013 03:02 PM (Jp8cU)

122 Well if you actually know it's going to be 7-7-2, that's a good plan. Posted by: bonhomme at November 26, 2013 06:59 PM (sByIH) --- DANG!! It was AKK and the guy across the table is smiling.

Posted by: UWP at November 26, 2013 03:02 PM (fdXMW)

123 Illinois politicians only leave office under indictment or death.

Posted by: --- at November 26, 2013 03:02 PM (MMC8r)

124 Dick Morris, last seen 69'ing with Jay Carny in the Lincoln Memorial shitter...

Posted by: OG Celtic-American at November 26, 2013 03:03 PM (vHRtU)

125 Just wait 'til the Democrats start running on Obamacare. Then you'll be sorry, Wingnuts!

Posted by: Debbie Whatshername, Schmuck at November 26, 2013 03:03 PM (eHIJJ)

126
So, the surf's not up, yet.
Bummer, dude.

Posted by: artisanal 'ette at November 26, 2013 03:03 PM (IXrOn)

127 Fl was lost, imo, because there were no R ads on HGTV, FX, Spike, USA. The Party of Stupid spent ALL their money in my area of FL on Fox News Ads. Duh! Posted by: NeverEvermore at November 26, 2013 07:00 PM (hRV3r) _____________ ORCA also was in charge of TV ad buys.

Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at November 26, 2013 03:03 PM (0LHZx)

128 @ 99

Yeah. Funny, I remember that being said last year, too.

Posted by: Demosthenes at November 26, 2013 03:04 PM (c5AtG)

129 I never said in the post that Obesewiseass had any chance to win. I explicitly said Durbin WILL retain his seat.

Posted by: CAC at November 26, 2013 03:04 PM (AdVnn)

130 --- "Illinois politicians only leave office under indictment or death."

Death is no impediment.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at November 26, 2013 03:04 PM (eHIJJ)

131 There's always the veto override. It's not likely, but if O-Care gets bad enough...who knows? Lots of Dems up for election in 2016 might say fuck it, I'm a party loyalist but I'm not going down with the ship for Obama who's out next year as it is.

So we get two years of ruin instead of three. My point on that front is more that there's no avoiding the pain because it's going to be necessary to punish voters out of there tolerance for the democrat party. For people here, that means you still have to brace for impact and be very careful about anyone promising that it'll all get better.

If they're actually serious about saving their party, they may well get on board with impeachment anyway, so that point stands.

Posted by: Methos at November 26, 2013 03:04 PM (hO9ad)

132 Posted by: NC Mountain Girl at November 26, 2013 06:58 PM (2yhW0)

Truax, thanks for mentioning him... yeah, he has no name-recognition -- obviously since I'm an Illinoisan and never heard of him til this thread. I'll look him up. I like Oberweiss' stands but I know he never wins.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at November 26, 2013 03:04 PM (KL49F)

133 Obamacare will result in a 2014 sweep of all 3 house for the Progressive Radical Democrats!

Posted by: PROSTATUS at November 26, 2013 03:04 PM (vHRtU)

134 My lib relatives in Illinois see the writing on the wall--they see that their pension funds will go bankrupt before they retire, and they are in their 50s. They see the wreckage; one has already turned to the GOP and is quite angry. So a "knave" election could be coming.

Posted by: PJ at November 26, 2013 03:05 PM (ZWaLo)

135 >>Incorrect. >>We get two years of nothing as the GOP gets free show votes which everyone knows Obama will veto. Which I suppose will make cheerleaders happy, but will accomplish nothing. There is no way to avoid three years of economic devastation by Obamacare short of his impeachment. Disagree. Some of you need to go take a look around at whats happening in this country. This isn't Benghazi or even the IRS doing partisan targeting against one group. Every single person in the country is being touched by this bill and the vast majority of the voting public is being impacted negatively. And we are just getting started with this clusterfuck. This isn't a partisan issue. This is one of the most sacred and important issues to every American, their health care. Screw the website, wait until the other 80 t0 90 million Americans find out their insurance is getting pooched. More importantly, wait till they find out their doctor is no longer available to them. You want to see pissed off, that will be pissed off on a scale we've never seen before. CNN's generic ballot swung double digits in one month, from Republicans down by 8 to up by 2. That is incredible and it is based on one issue, Obamacare. And it hasn't even really hit yet. CAC may not want to say it but I will, there is a wave of anger building in this country and it is going to be historic. And it will give us the power to do things that seemed impossible a couple months ago.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 26, 2013 03:06 PM (g1DWB)

136 119 PS about Ditka, he says it's his greatest regret that he didn't run against Bammy in '04, so he could try to make up for it and beat Dick Durbin. Posted by: Aslan's Girl at November 26, 2013 07:01 PM (KL49F) ____________ Did he have a serious chance? I know it's DA DIT-KA and all but do people actually vote for sports personalities? Then again Health Shuler became a congress critter. So who knows?

Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at November 26, 2013 03:06 PM (0LHZx)

137 128 ORCA also was in charge of TV ad buys. Well, that makes sense.

Posted by: NeverEvermore at November 26, 2013 03:06 PM (hRV3r)

138 For CAC: UberFacts ‏@UberFacts 3m Astronomers have discovered a planet which rains glass sideways, giving it a blue hue. Its named "HD189733b"

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 26, 2013 03:07 PM (DmNpO)

139 @ 130

"I explicitly said Durbin WILL retain his seat."

Yes. And you also talked about his sour numbers, and what they might mean in other states. And you ended the post by practially rubbing your hands in glee at the potential "*ave" that might be coming.

Again, forgive us skeptics for not jumping on the "*ave" bandwagon like we did last time, and instead waiting for independent verification.

Posted by: Demosthenes at November 26, 2013 03:07 PM (c5AtG)

140 What if Ocare is repealed before the elections? It could happen. What then?

Posted by: Soona at November 26, 2013 03:08 PM (FtgP2)

141
Did [Ditka] have a serious chance?
Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo

Al Franken is a Senator. Nuff said.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 26, 2013 03:08 PM (kdS6q)

142 the gop won't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They will chart a course for defeat and sail straight to it. We still have chance to give North Korea a victory in thier hostage taking. I'm sure the President could use some bipartisan support with that.

Posted by: losthusker at November 26, 2013 03:08 PM (r/XjE)

143 A former Cook county commissioner was doing guilty today of income tax evasion and will do jail time.

Posted by: the littl shyning man at November 26, 2013 03:08 PM (tmFlQ)

144 136 My lib relatives in Illinois see the writing on the wall--they see that their pension funds will go bankrupt before they retire, and they are in their 50s. They see the wreckage; one has already turned to the GOP and is quite angry. So a "knave" election could be coming. Posted by: PJ at November 26, 2013 07:05 PM (ZWaLo) ___________ I heard the same thing in 2012. And experienced it first hand too. A friend of mine's mom who is a life long Dem said she'd had enough of Obama. Cool, I thought, the tide is turning. Then a friend of my wife's who is the poster girl for an Obamabot (divorced single mother with a very "active social life") said the same thing. Holy fuck, I thought, this is awesome. This is proof that Obama's toast. Didn't quite work out that way. Not saying it can't happen. But I've learned to take anecdotal evidence of political events with a teaspoon of salt.

Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at November 26, 2013 03:09 PM (0LHZx)

145 "Go Deep Reggie, Go Deep! Goddamn ni**er, you have the smallest c**k I have ever seen... how you gonna hit my prostate with that s**t?"

Posted by: President Barak Obama at November 26, 2013 03:10 PM (vHRtU)

146 137 CAC may not want to say it but I will, there is a wave of anger building in this country and it is going to be historic. And it will give us the power to do things that seemed impossible a couple months ago.

COUNTING ON IT!!

Posted by: K,tnx,bye at November 26, 2013 03:10 PM (RPDkq)

147 "My point on that front is more that there's no avoiding the pain because it's going to be necessary to punish voters out of there tolerance for the democrat party..." Kinda like when you have to take away a fun day from the kids that you were really looking forward to also? Yeah, it's too early to kill Obamcide, and that really sucks.

Posted by: Meremortal at November 26, 2013 03:11 PM (1Y+hH)

148 Astronomers have discovered a planet which rains glass sideways, giving it a blue hue. Its named "HD189733b" From NASA: "On this turbulent alien world, the daytime temperature is nearly 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit, and it possibly rains glass -- sideways -- in howling, 4,500-mph winds. The cobalt blue color comes not from the reflection of a tropical ocean as it does on Earth, but rather a hazy, blow-torched atmosphere containing high clouds laced with silicate particles. Silicates condensing in the heat could form very small drops of glass that scatter blue light more than red light."

Posted by: bonhomme[/i][/b][/i][/b] at November 26, 2013 03:11 PM (sByIH)

149 Al Franken is a Senator. Nuff said. Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 26, 2013 07:08 PM (kdS6q) _________ But he didn't win. The election was stolen. That would not happen in IL for a Republican...hell that won't happen anywhere for a Republican.

Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at November 26, 2013 03:11 PM (0LHZx)

150 I really would love to see Franken giving a concession speech. Fuckin' Minnesota.

Posted by: StPatrick_TN at November 26, 2013 03:11 PM (un8zR)

151

Hmmm....interesting poll, considering Oberweis has run before and hasn't really caught on statewide. He's not an "American Idol candidate", but then again neither is Durbin.

There's a blog "Capitol Fax" based in Springfield IL that covers politics from the lefty perspective. They've been going after Oberweis lately. Now I see why.

Apparently Oberweis's wife is now a resident of Florida, for the tax advantages, according to that blog. And they are still married.

Posted by: whyme at November 26, 2013 03:12 PM (l9mF2)

152 4 letters? rhymes with rave? BLAVE!
and as we all know, to blave means to bluff, heh?

Posted by: losthusker at November 26, 2013 03:12 PM (r/XjE)

153 @ 156 -- Yeah, you're like sixty comments too late, dude.

Posted by: Demosthenes at November 26, 2013 03:14 PM (c5AtG)

154 Dems don't spend money on state wide elections in Mississippi or Idaho. There's a reason for that. It's the same reason that Republicans shouldn't spend money on elections in Illinois.

Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at November 26, 2013 03:14 PM (0LHZx)

155 So why did Ditka drop out if he was only 4% behind? He had a lot of time to make it up.

Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at November 26, 2013 03:15 PM (0LHZx)

156
I really would love to see Franken giving a concession speech. Fuckin' Minnesota.
Posted by: StPatrick_TN

Last I heard, the Repubs weren't even going to really challenge him. Just put up a tackling dummy and let Al waltz to reelection.

Of course, that could change now.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 26, 2013 03:15 PM (kdS6q)

157 There is a four letter word that rhymes with rave I dare not speak for fear of jinxing it. Dave's not here, man.

Posted by: Tommy Chong[/i][/u][/b] at November 26, 2013 03:16 PM (Qxe/p)

158 We stop playing defense and start playing offense. No more playing by Obama's agenda, we start setting the agenda. Jack, what in the past performance of the GOP makes you think they have any interest in "playing offense"? 90% of them are on board with the statist agenda. And the ones that aren't are too pussified to do anything about it. You've got Lee, Cruz, and Paul. And that's about it.

Posted by: rfichoke at November 26, 2013 03:17 PM (J87gl)

159 Tackling Dummy 2016!

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at November 26, 2013 03:17 PM (oFCZn)

160 With regard to Bruce Braley in Iowa, his facebook page has been scrubbed of positive references to his support of obama care. There have also been a number of commenters on his page, who have locked timelines, making comments like, "i can't believe you went with the Republicans to vote against Obamacare," etc etc.

Posted by: J. Locke at November 26, 2013 03:17 PM (AeqWm)

161 Yes, the Obama administration will do everything they can to delay to employer mandates including some regulation barring the companies from sending them out until after the election.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at November 26, 2013 03:18 PM (23Kgq)

162 Last I heard, the Repubs weren't even going to really challenge him. Just put up a tackling dummy and let Al waltz to reelection. Dear God, man, they have to...if he's defeated he might go back into comedy.

Posted by: --- at November 26, 2013 03:18 PM (MMC8r)

163 167-Sorry, wrong thread.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at November 26, 2013 03:18 PM (23Kgq)

164
So why did Ditka drop out if he was only 4% behind? He had a lot of time to make it up.
Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo

Ditka said Republicans tried to convince him to run for the seat after primary winner Jack Ryan dropped out of the race amidst controversy involving his divorce from TV star Jeri Ryan. But Ditka declined the offer, citing other commitments.

ABC

So, Ditka was busy finding a cure for cancer or something.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 26, 2013 03:18 PM (kdS6q)

165 JackStraw: "And it will give us the power to do things that seemed impossible a couple months ago."

Yes! Comprehensive Immigration Reform!

Posted by: John McCain, Jeff Flake, Paul Ryan, Lindsay Graham, and the Stupid Party at November 26, 2013 03:19 PM (eHIJJ)

166 Good article: "But as bad as the Iran deal was, the real analogy to Munich is the way in which Obama and Kerry not only ignored the concerns of the nations endangered by an Iranian nuke Â— Israel and Saudi Arabia Â— but also excluded them from the negotiations. Like the Czechs who were told by Chamberlain that they had no choice but to accept the dismemberment of their country, Israel and the Saudis have been callously told they can either like the deal or lump it. ... ObamaÂ’s defenders can accuse Stephens and others like him of hyperbole and hysteria. But once Iran cheats on the deal and uses its weak terms to get closer to its nuclear ambition, they will sound a lot more credible even to liberals who are trying their best to ignore this debate. At that point, as the world trembles before a nuclear-armed state sponsor of terror run by Islamist fanatics, StephensÂ’ suggestion that Obama and Kerry are the same as the appeasers of Hitler, Â“minus the umbrellas,Â” will seem tame." http://tinyurl.com/lwthf9p

Posted by: USA at November 26, 2013 03:19 PM (VIaw0)

167

Regarding Ditka and his (never to be) 2004 US Senate candidacy from Illinois, he reportedly asked George Allen about whether he should run or not, and what was involved in actually being a US Senator, and that conversation made up his mind that it wasn't the job for him.

I guess George Allen's father had been a teammate of his back in the day.

Posted by: whyme at November 26, 2013 03:21 PM (l9mF2)

168 Oh, and the heckler at the President's speech. Turns out he was a plant. Invited by the Administration! Pure theater. Everything out of this administration is pure lies. Wonder if that will be in the revised Thanksgiving talking points.

Posted by: USA at November 26, 2013 03:21 PM (VIaw0)

169 "And it will give us the power to do things that seemed impossible a couple months ago." Just what, precisely do you think the GOP is going to accomplish and what is your evidence to support it?

Posted by: Burn the Witch at November 26, 2013 03:27 PM (S+fbC)

170 "OK, some of you. We 'win' the Senate. So what? What then?" We start hacking away at Obamacare until we have the White House and can fully repeal it. After the shit show the public has witnessed since the train wreck rolled out, every bit Republicans do to stop the pain will be perceived as salvation and any stories about pre-existing conditions will be recognized as the propaganda it is. The lies about keeping your plans and your doctors and premiums reduced by $2500 and Obamacare reducing the deficit over the next decade have been exposed as lies. Keep reminding the public of that, though, as you unravel it bit by by bit. Then dredge up the IRS and Benghazi scandals and keep digging up dirt. Relentlessly stay on message and vilify Obama like the Democrats did Bush when they had Congress.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at November 26, 2013 03:27 PM (Y92Nd)

171 "the state voted for Obama by more than 17 points, but the electorate polls claimed they did so by 9. The President's approval rating is barely above water here- 50-46- and this is Illinois." Doesn't surprise me. Barack Obama may have been the Senator from the State of Illinois before being elected President, but to Obama, "Illinois" consists of the land north of I-80 -the rest of the state may as well be Alabama as far as he's concerned. In 2012, Obama only won a handful of counties in the state south of I-80, and the Democrats in the statehouse had to Gerrymander the hell out of the house district map for 2012 in order to win back a number of seats they lost in 2010. It also doesn't help that the state is a fiscal mess with a terrible state pension liability problem -and since Democrats control state government completely, this could certainly drag a Democrat's polling down a little. I doubt Durbin will lose. Durbin is about as big a union stooge as you would ever find, and unions have an oversized political influence here. The Chicago area is also going to give Democrats the upper hand more often than not, but Republicans can win here, and they would do a hell of a lot better if the state party could ever improve it's image and find fresh new candidates instead of constantly recycling guys like Oberweis time and time again........

Posted by: Captain Glenn Quagmire at November 26, 2013 03:28 PM (1o4B5)

172 >>Jack, what in the past performance of the GOP makes you think they have any interest in "playing offense"? 90% of them are on board with the statist agenda. And the ones that aren't are too pussified to do anything about it. You've got Lee, Cruz, and Paul. And that's about it. Times change. Cruz, Lee, Paul and many other conservatives who have gone to DC in the last few years and others who will follow next year have a completely different agenda and they are the future. Bubba was a creature of the DLC but Obama blew that up and moved the Dems far left even if the msm never admits that, we know it. The same thing is happening to the Republican party in the other direction even if its not happening fast enough for many, it is happening.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 26, 2013 03:28 PM (g1DWB)

173 171 I hope Graham loses his primary and McCain is so spooked he retires.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at November 26, 2013 03:29 PM (Y92Nd)

174 I wouldn't be getting all moist about the possibility of unseating Pryor in Arkansas. Tom Cotton is a solid conservative, but he has limited experience. He is a one-termer from the House. Pryor is a do-nothing who keeps winning elections despite this being a red state at the national level. He has gotten by on his father's name for a long time. That said, things have been trending red at the state level in recent years. 2012 saw a sweep of all the House seats and a return to R control of both houses of the state legislature. They also won some statewide seats in 2010. Things are heading in the right direction, but I don't know if the atmosphere's just right yet. This is an extremely strange state.

Posted by: Zombie John Gotti at November 26, 2013 03:30 PM (uzmcT)

175 From NASA: "On this turbulent alien world, the daytime temperature is nearly 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit, and it possibly rains glass -- sideways -- in howling, 4,500-mph winds. The cobalt blue color comes not from the reflection of a tropical ocean as it does on Earth, but rather a hazy, blow-torched atmosphere containing high clouds laced with silicate particles. Silicates condensing in the heat could form very small drops of glass that scatter blue light more than red light." **** Pretty freaking hostile.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 26, 2013 03:30 PM (DmNpO)

176

Tom Cotton is a solid conservative, but he has limited experience.

Tom Cotton!

Posted by: The Tom Cotton! Guy at November 26, 2013 03:38 PM (HgfyP)

177 >>Just what, precisely do you think the GOP is going to accomplish and what is your evidence to support it? Jimmy Carter. Some of you may forget that Reagan didn't win his run for presidency on the first try. Third try. He got to wear his ass as a hat the first two times because the country was not in a place that was ready to accept his message. The country always moves like a pendulum. It swings one way and then makes space for it to swing back the other. The further the country goes in one direction the easier it is to move it back further the other direction. Carter moved so far left and was so ineffectual he made the space for Reagan. Under Carter, the economy sucked, gas prices were through the roof, unemployment was crushing us and those pesky Iranians were tucking it up our squeaker. Sound familiar? Guys like McCain and Graham are yesterday's news and are becoming largely irrelevant save for the msm. The reason that McCain came down so hard on Cruz and his fellow wacko birds is he can see the writing on the wall. The future, the Overton window, call it what you want, is shifting right. 4 years ago the Tea Party was irrelevant. The only question we are asking now is how big their influence is going to be in the next few years. Hope and Change.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 26, 2013 03:41 PM (g1DWB)

178 Posted by: Mallamutt at November 26, 2013 07:13 PM (OWjjx)

RINO Topinka's a loser, too. She lost against Blago of all people. Conservative Brady put up much better numbers than she did when he ran against Quinn in '10.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at November 26, 2013 03:50 PM (KL49F)

179 Mallamutt, as a Chicago Rep. I think Thompson was just as corrupt as the Dems. Wonder if the stories of him walking off w/ the statehouse antiques were true. At least Edgar seemed to be honest, I'm not sure of the truth. But traditionally most Chicago Rep. are in cahoots w/ the Dems there and only slightly less corrupt. All JMHO.

Posted by: The Farmer at November 26, 2013 03:56 PM (eBupg)

180 This is Illinois. That POS Dickless Dirtbag will get re-elected because there is a D next to his worthless name

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 26, 2013 03:57 PM (JivuR)

181 Surprised at the # of Suckers here. Yes, Illinois' traditional nickname was the Sucker State. http://chicagoist.com/2012/09/27/illinois_the_sucker_state.php I'm in Dixon, anyone nearby? I understand if you don't want to say on the net, but what difference does it make anyways? The NSA knows.

Posted by: The Farmer at November 26, 2013 04:15 PM (eBupg)

182 Durbin is safe, and the insanity will continue to spew out of his pie hole.

Posted by: d_fitz at November 26, 2013 04:32 PM (awRHi)

183 Are the R's really putting up Oberwies? Really? The guy who has been trying desperately to buy his way into elected office for the past 10 years? They guy who lost to a nobody D in Hastert's old district (where I grew up) in `06 after Hastert resigned? That guy? His family makes great ice cream, though...

Posted by: Aruges at November 26, 2013 04:40 PM (ivABK)

184 ...at the Federalist. Hee!

Posted by: Book at November 26, 2013 04:55 PM (qWES6)

185 The state of Iowa is pretty much a goner as far as Red States go. If the young, unmarried, food stamp receiving, undegreed, and surely young mothers all started voting, the state would be bright royal blue. The state of Iowa has more young single mom's than any other state I've been in. The number of social outreach non profits and people working in the public sector has made this state so socialist-minded that it surprises me that the state still has such a great guy as Grassley representing them. Iowa is certainly going to be full on blue within a few years. The young people in Iowa are increasingly having babies out of wedlock and do not have their parents and grandparent's values.

Posted by: Mistress Overdone at November 26, 2013 05:09 PM (2/oBD)

186 CAC's gonna get the ban hammer. This election cycle is a golden opportunity to not only consolidate, but push into "blue" territory. Why settle for 51?

Posted by: Iblis at November 26, 2013 07:09 PM (ZfNak)

187 Yeah, but this time Obamacare is hitting people in the pocketbook, severely, not just an incremental increase in their withholding tax. I think the anger is real, look at the polls. Maybe IL will never be red, but it's sure going purple.

Posted by: PJ at November 26, 2013 08:11 PM (ZWaLo)

188 Where is the flaming skull?

Posted by: disgusted at November 26, 2013 08:40 PM (iMISt)

189 God, this thread is depressing. I don't know which is worse: if people here just aren't familiar with Illinois politics, or if they actually are. Edgar hasn't appeared on a ballot since 1994 and is probably the one person in Illinois Republicans could nominate my friends and I couldn't vote for. If he were so popular, Dillard would have won the last gubernatorial primary with his strategy of just saying Edgar's name over and over like some sort of sick parrot. As for Oberweis: no, he won't win, but Truax didn't get a lick of attention all year till Oberweis jumped in the race. Expect the party to go full tilt against Oberweis and drop Truax like a hot potato the second the primary's over, if he wins.

Posted by: T.J. at November 26, 2013 11:46 PM (VQJi6)

190 South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Alaska -- That's four. I'm gonna say Louisiana, North Carolina. Even Warner looks vulnerable in Virginia. But Colorado looks more winnable. Still, it would be great to dash all the McAuliffe enthusiasm.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at November 27, 2013 05:19 AM (ytax8)

191 Meanwhile, Pennsylvania is signing up for the Medicaid expansion. McDonald rejected it. Just says something about voter preferences. McAuliffe's win was not a progressive mandate. Cuccinelli was a weak candidate hampered by McDonald's trumped up scandal. Still think PA's fool's gold.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at November 27, 2013 05:24 AM (hrAg/)

192 I'm tempted. Maybe I'll even make a map. At The Federalist. The chief ewok: hardest hit.

Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at November 27, 2013 06:01 AM (1hM1d)

193 Four-letter word that rhymes with rave, eh. How many folks thought "cave." As in, Repubs losing their nerve when it comes to challenging Obama.

Posted by: sf at November 27, 2013 02:43 PM (pjX6/)

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