September 30, 2013
— Ace Indeed. Bear in mind, the IPCC is claiming that they are more sure than ever that warming is driven by carbon... despite the fact that there's a 17 year pause in warming and yet ever-increasing carbon.
And despite the fact all their models called for continued straight-line (mostly) warming.
So, having failed to predict anything, they claim they're more confident of their predictions than ever.
MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen told Climate Depot on September 27, 2013:
I think that the latest IPCC report has truly sunk to level of hilarious incoherence. They are proclaiming increased confidence in their models as the discrepancies between their models and observations increase.
Their excuse for the absence of warming over the past 17 years is that the heat is hiding in the deep ocean. However, this is simply an admission that the models fail to simulate the exchanges of heat between the surface layers and the deeper oceans. However, it is this heat transport that plays a major role in natural internal variability of climate, and the IPCC assertions that observed warming can be attributed to man depend crucially on their assertion that these models accurately simulate natural internal variability. Thus, they now, somewhat obscurely, admit that their crucial assumption was totally unjustified.
Bear in mind this business about the deep oceans sequestering all that Global Warming!!! where we conveniently can't measure it is what we call a Pure Speculation.
There's no evidence for this. It's in the category of "Things Which Possibly Could Be True But We Have No Real Reason to Think Are True."
Thus, the Science Is Settled this-is-a-fact-not-a-hypothesis theory now relies, crucially, on Something They Just Made Up a Year Ago.
@comradearthur asks, "If the ocean sequesters heat (through processes we don't understand), could it be that at other times, it releases heat (through processes we also don't understand), thus accounting for 1975-1998's warming?"
Sure could be the case. When you're down to mere speculation, many things could be true.
But the Warmists insist that of all the out-of-your-ass speculations that you could make, only their preferred out-of-your-ass speculations -- the ones that don't directly rubbish their claims -- are "Science."
Um, no. This is all pure speculation. This is step one of the scientific process -- these are guesses.
Talk to me when you've gotten some evidence for your speculation. Let's at least get to Step 2 here.
More: ICYMI, Ga. Tech's Judith Curry has a great post on how the IPCC gets to "95%". [Andy]
And, Open Thread.
Posted by: Ace at
04:07 PM
| Comments (144)
Post contains 433 words, total size 3 kb.
Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at September 30, 2013 04:11 PM (jSmN1)
Posted by: joeindc44 didn't analyze nuthin, just offered his own anecdotal evidence at September 30, 2013 04:12 PM (QxSug)
Posted by: kbdabear at September 30, 2013 04:13 PM (aTXUx)
Posted by: cirque de soothsayer at September 30, 2013 04:14 PM (h7VZl)
Posted by: kbdabear at September 30, 2013 04:15 PM (aTXUx)
Posted by: cirque de soothsayer at September 30, 2013 04:15 PM (h7VZl)
Posted by: BCochran1981 - Credible Hulk at September 30, 2013 04:16 PM (GEICT)
Posted by: rd at September 30, 2013 04:17 PM (D+lxs)
Posted by: Flatbush Joe at September 30, 2013 04:18 PM (ZPrif)
What is the measurement error in the instrumentation they are using to measure temperature?
Aren't some of their temperature estimations an indirect measurement? How do they know that their data is even related to temperature?
It's fraud all the way down, up, and sideways.
Posted by: William Smith's Analgesic Powders at September 30, 2013 04:18 PM (lKvzY)
Posted by: Lloyd Loar at September 30, 2013 04:18 PM (9u2hL)
Posted by: AlGore, arbiter of veracity at September 30, 2013 04:18 PM (Dwehj)
Posted by: Flatbush Joe at September 30, 2013 04:18 PM (ZPrif)
Global Warming is for reelz, DENIALISTS!!!
Posted by: Dr Charles Johnson, Scienceologist at September 30, 2013 04:18 PM (aTXUx)
Posted by: cirque de soothsayer at September 30, 2013 04:18 PM (h7VZl)
Posted by: zombie at September 30, 2013 04:18 PM (+cx5n)
Posted by: JPS at September 30, 2013 04:19 PM (9ziuC)
Posted by: real joe at September 30, 2013 04:19 PM (xXhgd)
The technical term is "SWAG" - (S)cientific (W)ild (A)ss (G)uess, or in the vernacular "just making shit up".
Posted by: Purp[/i][/b][/u][/s] at September 30, 2013 04:19 PM (9MLX+)
Posted by: zombie at September 30, 2013 04:19 PM (+cx5n)
Posted by: tmitsss at September 30, 2013 04:20 PM (Pa9vP)
Posted by: AlGore, arbiter of veracity at September 30, 2013 04:20 PM (Dwehj)
I've seen motherfuckers get hoisted on their own petard before, but damn.
Posted by: That's gonna leave a mark at September 30, 2013 04:21 PM (beakB)
Posted by: cirque de soothsayer at September 30, 2013 04:21 PM (h7VZl)
The Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory is based on the Caloric Theory of Heat: "The caloric theory is an obsolete scientific theory that heat consists of a self-repellent fluid called caloric that flows from hotter bodies to colder bodies. Caloric was also thought of as a weightless gas that could pass in and out of pores in solids and liquids." (HT Wikipedia)
So, NOW we know why they believe it's "hiding" at the bottom of the oceans.
Posted by: John W. at September 30, 2013 04:22 PM (PVBzL)
Until they have sufficient reliable data (and that would mean coverage over the entire earth's surface and down to the depths of the oceans) they can't begin to make even reliable guesses about what happens day to day let alone over the term of centuries or eons.
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and All That (Ecclesiates 9:11) at September 30, 2013 04:22 PM (lAZep)
Posted by: Flatbush Joe at September 30, 2013 04:23 PM (ZPrif)
Posted by: The Phantom Menace at September 30, 2013 04:23 PM (9jfyN)
Posted by: Papa at September 30, 2013 04:23 PM (jECGF)
Well, down for renovations for three years. And pollution had an effect. Maybe the main effect.
BUT CLIMATE CHANGE!!!
Posted by: boulder toilet hobo at September 30, 2013 04:23 PM (d7tB2)
I went to NASA the other day and ordered them to get started on a manned mission to the Sun
One of those skeptical clown engineers said it was impossible because the ship would burn up
I told him, "We've thought of that. That's why we're going at night!"
Posted by: Joe Biden at September 30, 2013 04:24 PM (aTXUx)
Posted by: cirque de soothsayer at September 30, 2013 04:24 PM (h7VZl)
Posted by: huerfano at September 30, 2013 04:25 PM (bAGA/)
It would be pining for the fjords, but they're full of seawater due to rising ocean levels.
What? It isn't? They aren't?
Never mind.
Posted by: pep at September 30, 2013 04:25 PM (6TB1Z)
Posted by: cirque de soothsayer at September 30, 2013 04:25 PM (h7VZl)
Posted by: Kreplach at September 30, 2013 04:25 PM (hmUex)
“I think the House should pass multiple continuing resolutions, focusing on all of the things President Obama listed in his speech to the American people this afternoon and funding them,” Cruz told CNBC’s Larry Kudlow.
“One continuing resolution funding the VA [Veterans' Affairs] in its entirety,” he added. “Another one funding our national parks. Another one funding our border patrol agents, so that we don’t have critical services denied the American people.”
Brilliant!!!
Posted by: Gidget at September 30, 2013 04:26 PM (tfg7i)
Posted by: Algore at September 30, 2013 04:26 PM (bKA83)
er, ah, the chemical equation for photosynthesis?
I read somewhere, once, really I did, and vaguely remember something about putting a plastic bag over a tree and increasing the CO2 concentration to the frightening levels of 400ppm or so, as I remember it. Then trying to measure any change in the rate of growth of the tree.
I don't remember how that experiment worked out.
Posted by: William Smith's Analgesic Powders at September 30, 2013 04:26 PM (lKvzY)
The fact that their climate models couldn't take known PAST data and give the results of our current climate is an indication that the algorithm they used blows. Wouldn't your next logical step be to find out why the models don't work and adjust the algorithm accordingly?
I guess it's easier call people deniers than to say, we f#cked up and determine how we f#cked up. I'm not seeing why the research can't be continued without strangling the world economy with uncertain results unless the outcome really doesn't matter.
Posted by: boned to the bone at September 30, 2013 04:27 PM (Ph479)
Posted by: Andy at September 30, 2013 04:27 PM (0ZQCB)
Posted by: zombie at September 30, 2013 04:27 PM (+cx5n)
Science proves it. Just take some Ice in a glass and fill with water and when the ICE MELTS. . . . oh, wait. It DOESN'T spill out of the glass?
never mind.
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and All That (Ecclesiates 9:11) at September 30, 2013 04:28 PM (lAZep)
NBC Nightly News @nbcnightlynews 5m
5 hikers killed in Colorado rockslide (via @9NEWS) http://nbcnews.to/1dSYVjt
Posted by: Jones in CO at September 30, 2013 04:28 PM (8sCoq)
This is me making my REALLY ANGRY face!
Posted by: Algore at September 30, 2013 04:29 PM (bKA83)
I'd especially consider it if we weren't getting as many
Posted by: boulder toilet hobo at September 30, 2013 04:29 PM (d7tB2)
CO2 is cheap enough that you don't need to physically enclose the tree to run this experiment. You just need a CO2 delivery system that's able to keep levels of CO2 in proximity to the tree high enough and consistently enough for experimental purposes.
Needless to say, trees like carbon dioxide. Who knew?
Posted by: torquewrench at September 30, 2013 04:30 PM (gqT4g)
Posted by: Jesse Pinkman, PhD Bitches! at September 30, 2013 04:30 PM (paOCA)
It's funny how one degree of average temperature over 100 years is supposed to be catastrophic.
Depending on where you live, there's a much large differential between dawn and noon or summer and winter.
There is the question of changes in water availability (rain), but that's not just a question of temperature.
Posted by: ConservativeMonster at September 30, 2013 04:31 PM (0wHyk)
We knew, I can tell you. Those idiot maples probably didn't, though. Man those guys are thick.
Posted by: Elms at September 30, 2013 04:31 PM (6TB1Z)
Posted by: boulder toilet hobo at September 30, 2013 04:32 PM (d7tB2)
Posted by: turfmann at September 30, 2013 04:32 PM (GgGgG)
Posted by: kbdabear at September 30, 2013 04:32 PM (aTXUx)
Posted by: Jones in CO at September 30, 2013 04:33 PM (8sCoq)
Posted by: cirque de soothsayer at September 30, 2013 04:33 PM (h7VZl)
It's a fucking fairy tale, writ large.
Posted by: GnuBreed at September 30, 2013 04:33 PM (wNF3N)
My guess is that he does a fair amount of crying regardless.
And just wait until they tell him he got his wiener wacked for a fraud.
Posted by: pep at September 30, 2013 04:33 PM (6TB1Z)
Posted by: zombie at September 30, 2013 04:33 PM (+cx5n)
Posted by: Flatbush Joe at September 30, 2013 04:34 PM (ZPrif)
Posted by: Fritz at September 30, 2013 04:35 PM (x2W/k)
Posted by: Sniveling Weatherman Dude at September 30, 2013 04:35 PM (ELdpj)
Posted by: CAC at September 30, 2013 04:35 PM (KZTw3)
Posted by: WOW at September 30, 2013 04:35 PM (6sqK6)
The oceanic transport system, the Gulf Stream and such, has collapsed in the past long before AlGore ever crawled out of a tobacco patch.
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 30, 2013 04:35 PM (JaA49)
Get 'em drunk enough.
Posted by: boulder toilet hobo at September 30, 2013 04:36 PM (d7tB2)
Posted by: steevy at September 30, 2013 04:36 PM (9XBK2)
We're in a cooling phase. Probably one similar to the one that happened a century ago.
There will be blizzards and mucho snowfall in the northern latitudes.
They will then begin to claim that WE'RE ALL GOING TO FREEZE TO DEATH because of {fill in the blank} Global Cooling caused by {fill in evil industry or country of choice} and we must spend billions focusing the suns rays on the cold parts to avoid the massive deaths that will ensue.
(we've actually seen the do this. Google Nuclear Winter during the '70's. We were all supposed to die from being froze to death and some said it was going to happen even without a nuclear war to trigger it. They just can't help themselves.)
There's are children's tales about Chicken Little and the Boy Who Cried Wolf for a reason; some people just have to have a boogey man to scare themselves and others with to try and seize power or feel in control.
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and All That (Ecclesiates 9:11) at September 30, 2013 04:37 PM (lAZep)
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 30, 2013 04:37 PM (JaA49)
Posted by: Flatbush Joe at September 30, 2013 04:38 PM (ZPrif)
Posted by: Algore at September 30, 2013 04:38 PM (bKA83)
Posted by: J. Wilde at September 30, 2013 04:38 PM (LLmK4)
Colorado just bides its time. It knows you will make a wrong turn sooner or later, and that's when it drops a boulder on you or cuts off your escape route with fire
Posted by: Jones in CO at September 30, 2013 04:39 PM (8sCoq)
Posted by: deep, DEEP! sea diver at September 30, 2013 04:40 PM (H0a0l)
Posted by: t-bird at September 30, 2013 04:40 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: Flatbush Joe at September 30, 2013 04:40 PM (ZPrif)
I'm 95% certain it would.
Posted by: the IPCC at September 30, 2013 04:41 PM (APJIX)
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at September 30, 2013 04:41 PM (JaA49)
Posted by: Tutu at September 30, 2013 04:41 PM (CpWI4)
That's RIGHT!!!!!1!!!!
Your odds are getting better and better.
REMEMBER; YOU CAN'T WIN IF YOU DON'T PLAY.
sucker.
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and All That (Ecclesiates 9:11) at September 30, 2013 04:42 PM (lAZep)
Posted by: OCBill at September 30, 2013 04:42 PM (rFipM)
Posted by: Low Information Republican Squish at September 30, 2013 04:42 PM (v6hyJ)
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and All That (Ecclesiates 9:11) at September 30, 2013 04:42 PM (lAZep)
Posted by: JEM at September 30, 2013 04:43 PM (o+SC1)
I like the term "magical thinking."
Or, in more scientific language, "horseshit."
Posted by: Phinn at September 30, 2013 04:43 PM (oFH2D)
Posted by: The IPCC at September 30, 2013 04:43 PM (bKA83)
Posted by: phreshone at September 30, 2013 04:44 PM (Pr6hk)
Posted by: Retread at September 30, 2013 04:44 PM (Oz+LZ)
Posted by: FenelonSpoke at September 30, 2013 04:45 PM (a4Omg)
Don't forget his little $9 million beach cottage in Montecito California, with fountains and 9 bathrooms
I'm sure that Al saves the planet by recycling the water for his 9 doggeh drinking bowls
Posted by: kbdabear at September 30, 2013 04:46 PM (aTXUx)
Posted by: JEM at September 30, 2013 04:46 PM (o+SC1)
Posted by: Severe Conservative riding Orca at September 30, 2013 04:46 PM (v6hyJ)
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and All That (Ecclesiates 9:11) at September 30, 2013 04:47 PM (lAZep)
Posted by: JackStraw at September 30, 2013 04:48 PM (g1DWB)
I'm thinking if he was strapped down so he couldn't get to any water about 15 minutes.
There's more water in his tissue than you'd think.
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and All That (Ecclesiates 9:11) at September 30, 2013 04:49 PM (lAZep)
Posted by: J. Wilde
-----------------
I'm 95% certain that warmists don't care, because grants.
Posted by: Mike Hammer at September 30, 2013 04:49 PM (aDwsi)
Psst hey you! Did you ever get caught jerking off on the bottom of the ocean?
Good hiding place ain't it?
Posted by: Johnny Cold Cuts at September 30, 2013 04:50 PM (N3Al8)
Posted by: Flatbush Joe at September 30, 2013 04:51 PM (ZPrif)
Posted by: Severe Conservative riding Orca at September 30, 2013 04:51 PM (v6hyJ)
-----------------------
Plus..., Tipper!
Posted by: Mike Hammer at September 30, 2013 04:53 PM (aDwsi)
Posted by: Alfred Duhem Gibbs at September 30, 2013 04:54 PM (v6hyJ)
Posted by: 18th Century philosophe at September 30, 2013 04:54 PM (qnPg9)
Fuck.
Posted by: J. Wilde at September 30, 2013 04:54 PM (LLmK4)
Deserts Turning Green From Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels, Study
Habitat destruction due to higher CO2 will be the next thing you hear them screaming.
I just wish that that was sarc
Posted by: PMRich at September 30, 2013 04:54 PM (KDUNf)
Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith [/i] [/b] [/s] [/u] at September 30, 2013 04:56 PM (qyfb5)
Posted by: Bufalobob at September 30, 2013 05:03 PM (r8ENS)
***
Never forget that Algore made a shitload of money selling indulgences... whoops, I mean carbon offsets.
Posted by: cool arrow at September 30, 2013 05:06 PM (WMsq+)
Posted by: cool arrow at September 30, 2013 09:06 PM (WMsq+)
Gotta admire the cojones on a guy who made almost a billion literally selling nothing but air that's actually free
Posted by: kbdabear at September 30, 2013 05:10 PM (aTXUx)
Posted by: Corona at September 30, 2013 05:17 PM (fh2Y7)
Posted by: Creepy Cultist of Thulsa AGW at September 30, 2013 05:23 PM (dvRYt)
Don't cross the streams.
Posted by: boulder toilet hobo at September 30, 2013 05:28 PM (d7tB2)
Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at September 30, 2013 05:28 PM (N/Sup)
Seriously. The thing has become such a joke that anybody on board the AGW crazy train should be subjected to the same level of ridicule and derisiveness that is normally reserved for people who believe in ghosts and astrology.
Oddly, though, as a religion, AGW belief would fall under the social category of "that which must be respected". I guess the loophole to that is that they claim it's "Science".
The bottom line is that it's people seeing what they want to see, and believing what they want to believe. Climate quacks want to call themselves the Saviors of mankind, and keep those checks coming in. Statists (and most scientists are in this group, too) want to nationalize the life blood of the world's economy. There's the Eco-Nazis, who just consider people to be parasites upon Mother Earth, the control freaks who just like to tell you what to do, and the moralists, who are so damaged that they need to be able to do inconsequential things to pronounce themselves morally superior over you. There's also the crony capitalists, like the Weather Channel (looking to pronounce itself more important, to gain viewers) and GE selling windmills.
No wonder that nobody has calculated the date when the data left the model's confidence intervals in the rear mirror, thereby rendering AGW a "myth busted". It was probably a month or two ago.
Posted by: Optimizer at September 30, 2013 05:29 PM (Mxt9o)
As far as I can tell, nothing I've heard them say so far is inconsistent with that interpretation...
Posted by: TheEngineer at September 30, 2013 05:33 PM (9PNNC)
Posted by: Wonkish Rogue at September 30, 2013 05:38 PM (lhNul)
Posted by: T. at September 30, 2013 05:45 PM (nVPn7)
They really should try playing the stocks - the 'science' is just as solid and their results would be the same - wrong.
Posted by: Burnt Toast at September 30, 2013 05:48 PM (80R0X)
Posted by: Dr. Eric Von Zipper at September 30, 2013 05:53 PM (QvsZ5)
1111!!!% known knowns – the things they know that they know, and you're a denier if you think they ain't so.
-00.00000% known unknowns – the things that they now know they don't know, but try to hide from the rest of us.
+0% unknown unknowns – the things they do not know they don't know, and they don't want to know anyhow.
Multiplied by the Will Rogers Constant:
rC = It isn't what we don't know that gives us trouble, it's what we think we know that ain't so.
Posted by: starboardhelm at September 30, 2013 06:14 PM (1I4sj)
Posted by: Saber Alter attempting Physics through MIT OCW at September 30, 2013 06:23 PM (8V74Y)
Posted by: Al Gore at September 30, 2013 06:26 PM (e8kgV)
It won't be a mass public renunciation. Instead, look for actions rather than words. Scientists are human like the rest of us, and may not be willing to admit, even to themselves, that they were wrong -- at least not for a while.
Instead, they will just move to other fields. Being scientists, they possess valuable and portable skills that can be used in a wide variety of applications. You will see large transitions out of climate change related research into other topics. Without abandoning their stands on climate change, they will develop sudden interests in unrelated topics. Other areas of study will suddenly get trendy. This will happen in the next two years. I am already seeing this with one scientist I know.
Eventually -- say in 5-10 years, they will sorta, kinda, admit that while anthropogenic climate change is still a valid theory, it really isn't that useful, doesn't model reality well, is too chaotic to make long-term predictions, didn't get enough funding, was eclipsed by other environmental factors, was highjacked by the politics/actors/idiots -- any number of explanations. Only a few of the most honest will admit they screwed the pooch.
There will always be a core of politicized sad sacks (The Paul Erlich types) that insists that climate doom is around the corner, and every bad (but not good) weather event will be linked to their doom theory.
Posted by: SL at September 30, 2013 06:47 PM (NZ5oG)
I mean as long as we're making sh*t up, let's keep Gaia involved.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at September 30, 2013 07:10 PM (eHIJJ)
http://tinyurl.com/llh2dxe
Couldn't get past the headline, it's all for show. It's all one happy little group, the repubdems, the republicrats, the demopubs, the demolicans, no matter what you call em they're one fraternity and we aren't them.
Posted by: knowledge is power at September 30, 2013 07:23 PM (Nx76m)
I'm told house republicans plan to revote on their cr w obamacare provisions and appoint conferees - negotiators - to sit down w senators
Posted by: knowledge is power at September 30, 2013 07:32 PM (Nx76m)
EXPLOSION AT THE BERKLEY CA CAMPUS: -STUDENTS INJURED -STUDENTS TRAPPED -EVACUATIONS ORDERED. DALYCAL.
Posted by: knowledge is power at September 30, 2013 07:35 PM (Nx76m)
What insulates the heat the Thermos bottle inevitably gives up, the way hot coffee is only warm by morning, and thus eventually rise to the surface to warm the sea at its surface?
Thence on to warming the atmosphere?
Why...it's a Thermos bottle outside the first! And outside that one, to insulate the next etc. ad infinitum?
Well, in fact, it's Thermos bottles all the way up!!
Here's the source of my allusion:
ItÂ’s turtles all the way down
There are many versions of the “turtle” story. Here is one of the best known:
“William James, father of American psychology, tells of meeting an old lady who told him the Earth rested on the back of a huge turtle. "But, my dear lady", Professor James asked, as politely as possible, "what holds up the turtle?" "Ah", she said, "that's easy. He is standing on the back of another turtle." "Oh, I see", said Professor James, still being polite. "But would you be so good as to tell me what holds up the second turtle?" "It's no use, Professor", said the old lady, realizing he was trying to lead her into a logical trap. "It's turtles-turtles-turtles, all the way!”
— from Wilson, R.A. (1983, 1997) Prometheus Rising. Phoenix, AZ: New Falcon Publishers, 1983.
Posted by: Hari Seldon at September 30, 2013 10:01 PM (/kgBM)
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Posted by: steevy at September 30, 2013 04:09 PM (9XBK2)