Ace of Spades HQ

March 24, 2014

It Seems The US Has Lost The Ability To Intercept Russian Communications
— DrewM

You might recall that the day before Russia made it's move in Crimea the US intelligence community (or at least a part of it) said the Russians were bluffing. That was...unfortunate.

Now there's a possible explanation for that atrocious error.

U.S. military satellites spied Russian troops amassing within striking distance of Crimea last month. But intelligence analysts were surprised because they hadn't intercepted any telltale communications where Russian leaders, military commanders or soldiers discussed plans to invade.
America's vaunted global surveillance is a vital tool for U.S. intelligence services, especially as an early-warning system and as a way to corroborate other evidence. In Crimea, though, U.S. intelligence officials are concluding that Russian planners might have gotten a jump on the West by evading U.S. eavesdropping.
"Even though there was a warning, we didn't have the information to be able to say exactly what was going to happen," a senior U.S. official says.

Hmmm, I wonder how the Russians might have been able to avoid having their communications intercepted? Oh right.

So, has Snowden enabled the Russians to evade US signal gathering? It's seems possible, maybe even likely. It's also possible the US after over a decade of focusing on terrorist treats and supporting efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan simply wasn't paying enough attention to the Russians or they just missed the signs.

I'm happy to have Snowden come back to the US and face a firing squad but I don't think we should jump to the conclusion that every intelligence failure from here on out is because of his crimes. It makes me nervous to see intelligence professionals jump to the easy conclusion. Aren't they supposed to be about not taking information at face value or the easy route to a solution?

Yes, they should be operating under the assumption that almost everything they do is compromised but the US intelligence community missed things before Snowden and shouldn't be exempt from having their work analyzed for problems going forward because of what he's done.

In related news....

The Russians could steamroll through Ukraine anytime they want.

The Ukrainian Army is preparing for battle by...raising money for equipment online.

And I put together a list of some of the things we still have today that date back to the "original" Crimean war back in the 1850s.

Posted by: DrewM at 07:48 AM | Comments (129)
Post contains 409 words, total size 3 kb.

1 1st

Posted by: CSMBigBird at March 24, 2014 07:50 AM (jsWA8)

2 If only we had a Pig Latin interpreter at the NSA. Damn budget cuts!

Posted by: fluffy at March 24, 2014 07:50 AM (Ua6T/)

3 I'll get the others

Posted by: CSMBigBird at March 24, 2014 07:50 AM (jsWA8)

4 Can you hear me how?

Posted by: Putin at March 24, 2014 07:51 AM (GQ8sn)

5 KISS

The US intelligence community didn't see it because they weren't looking for it.

It's that simple.

They see the threats elsewhere.

That comes from the top; they tell them where to look.

Posted by: RoyalOil at March 24, 2014 07:51 AM (VjL9S)

6 How much cream you think Barkey needs for that red mark.

Posted by: CSMBigBird at March 24, 2014 07:51 AM (jsWA8)

7 The worst thing about this Putin aggression is that Russian is a hard language to learn. Conjugate everything.

Posted by: votermom at March 24, 2014 07:52 AM (GSIDW)

"Even though there was a warning, we didn't have the information to be able to say exactly what was going to happen," a senior U.S. official says.

Funny how that works now, but not with Bush and 9/11.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider at March 24, 2014 07:52 AM (fwARV)

How much cream you think Barkey needs for that red mark.

Posted by: CSMBigBird at March 24, 2014 11:51 AM (jsWA

None. He'll have Reggie kiss it better.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider at March 24, 2014 07:53 AM (fwARV)

10
"I don't get it. You mean "Counter Intelligence" isnt a cooking show on HGTV??

---- Moar stupid shit my President actually said.

Posted by: fixerupper at March 24, 2014 07:53 AM (nELVU)

11 "Even though there was a warning, we didn't have the information to be able to say exactly what was going to happen," a senior U.S. official says. ------------------------ In many ways, this is the story of the Obama Presidency.

Posted by: Mike Hammer at March 24, 2014 07:54 AM (aDwsi)

12 Hey! You missed us, DrewM!

Posted by: Kingdom of Sardinia at March 24, 2014 07:54 AM (hn5v5)

13 But...but....PATRIOT!!!!!!11!!!

Posted by: BCochran1981 - Credible Hulk at March 24, 2014 07:54 AM (da5Wo)

14 "Even though there was a warning, we didn't have the information to be able to say exactly what was going to happen," a senior U.S. official says. But I bet you can tell me what Harriet in Peoria was talking to her sister about on the phone last month, right?

Posted by: Tami [/i][/b][/u][/s] at March 24, 2014 07:54 AM (bCEmE)

15 I think the US intel services knew what was about to happen, but chose to publicly say "they're bluffing" for face-purposes. One does not mass troops on a border without going balls out invasion. Anyone at NSA/CIA would say the same thing. I just think they publicly took an easy, predictable way out for the papers.

After all, what exactly could TFG plan to do if Putin did steamroll all of Ukraine?

Posted by: EC at March 24, 2014 07:54 AM (GQ8sn)

16 On the bright side, maybe Putin will eventually destroy the NHS.

Posted by: votermom at March 24, 2014 07:54 AM (GSIDW)

17 Maybe the Russkies end all communications with "then we'll get moose and squirrel"

NSA thinks they're listening to an old Rocky and Bullwinkle and change channels

Posted by: Bruce at March 24, 2014 07:54 AM (igJW1)

18 Hmmm, I wonder how the Russians might have been able to avoid having their communications intercepted? Pigeons.

Posted by: rickb223 at March 24, 2014 07:54 AM (h1D+w)

19 What a surprise, as we've foolishly gutted HUMINT for the comfortable arm chair SIGINT of computer network monitoring. The same goes for Obama's gutting of Army ground troops combined with increases in weaponized drone operations.

We're likely to see the country fail within a decade now, given we're utterly unable to operate intelligence and soon will be militarily ineffective as well.

Posted by: Multitude at March 24, 2014 07:54 AM (gJDLl)

20 So, has Snowden enabled the Russians to evade US signal gathering? It's seems possible, maybe even likely. It's also possible the US after over a decade of focusing on terrorist treats and supporting efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan simply wasn't paying enough attention to the Russians or they just missed the signs.

I would buy this, if not for the fact that Ukraine was in turmoil for weeks, even months, leading up to Russia's incursion into Crimea. That should have started ringing some alarm bells in DC.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Bossy Assault Hobbit [/u][/i][/s][/b] at March 24, 2014 07:55 AM (4df7R)

21 The "civil liberties" fog was just the ink cloud being sprayed by the SnowdenOp. And, just like past traitors, many rush to defend the traitor as a hero. Snowden and Greenwald still oh-so-surprisingly quiet on Putin's Ukrainian vacation. I rarely publicly criticize the men signing my checks either.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at March 24, 2014 07:55 AM (ZPrif)

22 That's like when McCauley and the gang dropped all our surveillance at the same time.

Posted by: Vincent Hanna at March 24, 2014 07:55 AM (fOLwM)

23 The "Steamroll/Transdnestria" link is broken.

Posted by: Boone at March 24, 2014 07:55 AM (aDkn+)

24 The SCOAMF is a gutless pussy.

Posted by: Insomniac at March 24, 2014 07:55 AM (DrWcr)

25 The Ukrainian Army is preparing for battle by...raising money for equipment online. When you have to Crowdsource your war funding, you are doing it wrong......

Posted by: rickb223 at March 24, 2014 07:56 AM (h1D+w)

26 After all, what exactly could TFG plan to do if Putin did steamroll all of Ukraine? Posted by: EC at March 24, 2014 11:54 AM (GQ8sn) Sternly worded letter in BOLD FONT

Posted by: RWC at March 24, 2014 07:56 AM (fWAjv)

27 That's like when McCauley and the gang dropped all our surveillance at the same time.

Posted by: Vincent Hanna at March 24, 2014 11:55 AM (fOLwM)

*golf clap*

Well done!

Posted by: EC at March 24, 2014 07:56 AM (GQ8sn)

28 So all I needed to say after 9-11 was "Couldn't understand what they said"?

Crap!

Posted by: Chimpy McBushitler at March 24, 2014 07:56 AM (si68n)

29 Sure. No one ever talks about us... and we won!

Posted by: the Heavy Brigade at March 24, 2014 07:57 AM (hn5v5)

30 Retweeted by Sonny Bunch joshuafoust ‏@joshuafoust G.Greenwald said Snowden had the "blueprint" to US SIGINT, but it's totally a coincidence that Moscow can suddenly avoid NSA taps.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at March 24, 2014 07:57 AM (ZPrif)

31 But wait... if the spying were limited to outside countries and not every US citizen, and every US citizen's communication, and hijacking the cameras and microphones and hard-drives and cell phones of US citizens...

Then maybe this wouldn't have been an issue.

Oh that constitution thing, yeah who needs that?

Posted by: Over-reach at March 24, 2014 07:57 AM (839aH)

32 When you have to Crowdsource your war funding, you ~~are doing it wrong~~ put too much faith in the gutless SCOAMT in the White House......

Posted by: rickb223 at March 24, 2014 11:56 AM (h1D+w)

FIFY

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Bossy Assault Hobbit [/u][/i][/s][/b] at March 24, 2014 07:57 AM (4df7R)

33 The Head Ewok just stomped this post.

Posted by: Y-not at March 24, 2014 07:57 AM (zDsvJ)

34 Ah, where are those good old days when our spy agencies focused on the enemy instead of the citizenry.

Posted by: tangonine at March 24, 2014 07:58 AM (x3YFz)

35 Noob, up stomping on this one.

Posted by: CSMBigBird at March 24, 2014 07:58 AM (jsWA8)

36 Yes, I'm sure all of the State Department's failures are Edward Snowden's fault. Absolutely.

Posted by: t-bird at March 24, 2014 07:58 AM (FcR7P)

37 This is simple. The American people are taking up the largest segment of intelligence gathering. We're the enemy now. Not Russia.

Posted by: Soona at March 24, 2014 07:58 AM (6RUDX)

>>> The Ukrainian Army is preparing for battle by...raising money for equipment online.

The left wanted a day when armies would have to be funded by bake sales...or the modern equivalent, crowdfunding. How do those hippie idiots feel now? Probably oh so happy, ugh.

Posted by: LizLem at March 24, 2014 07:58 AM (BF+2f)

39 But...but....PATRIOT!!!!!!11!!!

Posted by: BCochran1981 - Credible Hulk at March 24, 2014 11:54 AM (da5Wo)

In that he's demonstrated beyond the ability to deny how the US intelligence services are being used to spy on, plant evidence on and otherwise treat the American public as outright enemies and how the next president needs to - in the words of JFK - scatter the whole damned thing to the winds, yes.

Anything else? No.

Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at March 24, 2014 07:58 AM (zF6Iw)

40 The country is in the very best of hands.

Top. Men.

Posted by: chiefjaybob at March 24, 2014 07:59 AM (XLCKA)

41 Sonny Bunch ‏@SonnyBunch Seems to me that The Traitor Edward Snowden has good reason never to return to the United States. Because of, you know, all of the treason.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at March 24, 2014 07:59 AM (ZPrif)

42 Overcharge!

Posted by: Hillary Clinton, Soopergenius at March 24, 2014 07:59 AM (DrWcr)

43 Oh that constitution thing, yeah who needs that? Posted by: Over-reach ---------------- Particularly that Bill of Rights stuff. A time-wasting bottleneck.

Posted by: Barky at March 24, 2014 07:59 AM (aDwsi)

44 The seven-minute stomp.

Posted by: Lincolntf at March 24, 2014 07:59 AM (ZshNr)

45 Its a case of priorities. Veterans and those scary tea baggers are the primary terrorist threat according to DHS. In fact white males in general, except homos, are born terrorists and the only obstacle to the utopia of obamacare new green energy plans for clean burning dead babies. That leaves few resources for data mining Putin's laptop.

Posted by: angel with a sword at March 24, 2014 07:59 AM (hpgw1)

46 Snowden should have his dick cut off, drawn and quartered, left to suffer for as long as possible, and then executed. And anyone that thinks this traitor is any hero can go fuck themselves.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 24, 2014 08:00 AM (t3UFN)

47 This is simple. The American people are taking up the largest segment of intelligence gathering. We're the enemy now. Not Russia. -- Bingo.

Posted by: Votermom at March 24, 2014 08:00 AM (GSIDW)

48 Jeepers, anyone who has traveled in Ukraine, especially Crimea, knew the Russkies would never give up Sebastopol. I guess no one in the Admin has traveled in Ukraine. Who knew?

Posted by: Chaos the other dark meat at March 24, 2014 08:01 AM (oDCMR)

49 Gee, a President's administration that again makes an embarrassing mistake, a President's administration that likes to put blame on everyone else. And conveniently, we can pretend that it is Snowden's fault and our supreme leader would have been able to wink his eye and stop Putin that way if it weren't for Snowden. Hmmmmmm, is that really worse than a GOP establishment and it's bloggers sucking O's left nut and going along with his excuses?

Posted by: doug at March 24, 2014 08:01 AM (uJ8q7)

50 Ah, where are those good old days when our spy agencies focused on the enemy instead of the citizenry.
Posted by: tangonine at March 24, 2014 11:58 AM (x3YFz)

The citizenry is the enemy

Posted by: Barack O'Stalin at March 24, 2014 08:02 AM (kFxpe)

51 Remember that Putin/Obama, chess/checkers deal? How did it come to this? That we have a pretender for President? Greatest country in history and we have this shitstain for President and of course his picks for State Department and policy makers.

Posted by: seems legit at March 24, 2014 08:02 AM (A98Xu)

52 And conveniently, we can pretend that it is Snowden's fault and our supreme leader would have been able to wink his eye and stop Putin that way if it weren't for Snowden.

Has anyone said that Obammy would have been able to "wink his eye and stop Putin?" No. What we're saying is that, for whatever reason, our intel on Russia has gone silent. I don't know if that's all Snowden (I'm sure some of it is), but it's an international embarrassment for our gubmint to have been taken completely by surprise by an invasion that we should have seen coming and been preparing a response to for MONTHS.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Bossy Assault Hobbit [/u][/i][/s][/b] at March 24, 2014 08:03 AM (4df7R)

53 "After all, what exactly could TFG plan to do if Putin did steamroll all of Ukraine? Posted by: EC at March 24, 2014 11:54 AM (GQ8sn) " From what we've seen in Georgia and Crimea, they come in unprepared and say "Oh look, we're the Russians. You don't want to shoot at Russians, do you?" If it's clear that Ukraine is being "steamrollered" then they may figure that shooting is the best option, and I'm not sure they couldn't make the Russian Army look bad if they did. They sure could halt the "steamroller".

Posted by: Chris_Balsz at March 24, 2014 08:03 AM (5xmd7)

54 joshuafoust ‏@joshuafoust I'm sure it's just a coincidence that Russia is suddenly able to evade US SIGINT, and it has nothing to do with the defector they just got. joshuafoust ‏@joshuafoust Because, as he and Snowden's many cultists insist, there's no *direct evidence* he gave anything to Russia and he pinky swears he didn't. joshuafoust ‏@joshuafoust Except, of course, for all of these coincidences that just happen to favor Moscow and put the US at a disadvantage. Oh well.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at March 24, 2014 08:04 AM (ZPrif)

Our intel went silent at the beginning of the Cold War, too.

Just saying.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider at March 24, 2014 08:04 AM (fwARV)

56 "So, has Snowden enabled the Russians to evade US signal gathering? It's seems possible, maybe even likely." YEAH, because our intelligence services are so incredibly gifted at predicting anything but your next Facebook status.

Posted by: Messr Stockpiles of WMDs and Fall of USSR, esq. at March 24, 2014 08:06 AM (pulBB)

57 Bullshit. Given the Clinton era refocusing into SigInt and complete trashing of HumInt and the inherent vulnerabilities of such a focus, the fact that American intelligence was unable to predict whether they would actually invade because of communications interception. Hell, all it would have taken was the commander of the force amassing on the border to have been given two envelopes with sealed orders. If phrase A came across in communications with the Kremlin he would open envelope A and follow those orders. If phrase B, then envelope B. The only reason that it was truly unexpected is because Obama's fuckwits couldn't read the temperature in the room with 5 different thermometers including one with an audio announcement.

Posted by: Ravenshrike at March 24, 2014 08:07 AM (XCSw/)

58 Our intel went silent at the beginning of the Cold War, too.

Just saying.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider at March 24, 2014 12:04 PM (fwARV)

"But but but... RESET!"

- Obammy and his Merry Band of Minions

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Bossy Assault Hobbit [/u][/i][/s][/b] at March 24, 2014 08:07 AM (4df7R)

59 Putin is letting Snowden crash in Moscow out of the kindness of his KGB heart, I'm sure. No quid pro quo at all. Just ol' Vlad being his regular congenial self.

Posted by: Lincolntf at March 24, 2014 08:07 AM (ZshNr)

60 Ah, to go back to the good ol' days of Russian Dept. of Interior cops singing Daft Punk on a stage....

Posted by: EC at March 24, 2014 08:07 AM (GQ8sn)

61 I think the "focusing" and "pivoting" and "golfing" of the Obama administration is making it difficult to do the serious work of actually being President. Don't have a way? Find an F'ing way.

Posted by: seems legit at March 24, 2014 08:10 AM (A98Xu)

62 How snowden obtained his information is despicable and he should be in a cold damp cell for a long time. Having said that, it's critical to note that the information stands for itself. Our govt is trick fn us every step of the way. I have no problem divorcing the message from the messenger. He is a shitbag, but the information is solid. The two have no connection.

Posted by: tangonine at March 24, 2014 08:10 AM (x3YFz)

63 @ 62 OK I can buy that

Posted by: Chris_Balsz at March 24, 2014 08:12 AM (5xmd7)

64 Well, we were trying to war game it, until Biden ate all the RISK! pieces...

Posted by: Military "Intelligence" at March 24, 2014 08:12 AM (DErq5)

65 WE had an Army trained to fight First Order opponents... to combat the largest Armored Force in the history of Man.... during the Cold War. But we have spent the last few years fighting piss ant third worlders... and changing our equipment and training, to be an occupation army fighting insurgents. We are, at present, ill equipped and trained to fight a first Tier Opponent (Russia, China...).

Posted by: Romeo13 at March 24, 2014 08:13 AM (84gbM)

66 "We are, at present, ill equipped and trained to fight a first Tier Opponent (Russia, China...)."

So the DoD and Girl Scouts enter into a partnership where they sell cookies outside of legal dope smoking establishments.

Then we can afford to buy good toys for the troops.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at March 24, 2014 08:17 AM (si68n)

67 If Russia did use a big tool in its cyber warfare article against the US then it seems we may have obtained something at a great cost to the Ukrainians but at a little cost to us. We now may know that they have an operational capability to deny us significantly in SIGINT. Perhaps we knew. then again perhaps we didn't know of this capability. we do now have something to analyse and use to improve our understanding of how Russia goes to war.

Posted by: Mac at March 24, 2014 08:17 AM (uEdOl)

68 Germans using hard-wire phones instead of radio caused two huge Allied failures near the end of WWII. Whenever a potential enemy goes quiet, he's telling you something. This is simply beneath The Cool One's notice.

NRO would still have known about major equipment moves. Hell, we could read, from space, the serial number on the rubber boat that hit the Cole (just didn't think about what it was doing there, or allow warning shots at jolly civilian boating parties). You need a little HumInt to go with all that SigInt.

This was no surprise. "We" just don't care.

Posted by: Stringer Davis at March 24, 2014 08:17 AM (xq1UY)

69 Then we can afford to buy good toys for the troops. Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at March 24, 2014 12:17 PM (si68n) The acquisitions process will never cease to amaze me on how fd up something can actually become.

Posted by: tangonine at March 24, 2014 08:19 AM (x3YFz)

70 The acquisitions process will never cease to amaze me on how fd up something can actually become.

Posted by: tangonine at March 24, 2014 12:19 PM (x3YFz)

Minority owned vendors FTW!

Posted by: EC at March 24, 2014 08:20 AM (GQ8sn)

71 Snowden probably released 2% of the info he stole to create the civil liberties facade and get support --- the other 98% he gave to Putin.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at March 24, 2014 08:22 AM (ZPrif)

72 I like how the guy on Fox is saying putting troops on the border of Ukraine may cause minority Russians in other countries to begin fomenting unrest as an unintended consequence. It's like this guy didn't pay any attention to what happened in Georgia, and he's an expert.

Posted by: no good deed at March 24, 2014 08:23 AM (vBhbc)

73 The Russians aren't stupid (like we seem to be.) They KNOW we are masters of SIGINT. So, how do you counter that? You don't use electronic emissions for your C^3. This is the place that actually figured out how to use cavalry against armor, after all. They aren't short on manpower in Russia. Couriers will do the trick, just like for OBL, especially when you can do everything on your own timetable. Had we done ANYTHING to interrupt their OODA loop and forced them to do C^3 faster than the speed of stroll, and I guarantee you our SIGINT guys would suddenly find themselves with more than enough work.

Posted by: Phelps at March 24, 2014 08:23 AM (wdjv2)

74 Minority owned vendors FTW! Posted by: EC at March 24, 2014 12:20 PM (GQ8sn) well, that's part of the game, but small companies owned by 1-eyed minority vets missing a limb with a speech impediment are the norm now. I'm more concerned about the people who write RFPs and requirements documents who have absolutely no idea what they're writing.

Posted by: tangonine at March 24, 2014 08:23 AM (x3YFz)

75 "Germans using hard-wire phones instead of radio caused two huge Allied failures near the end of WWII. " We used them in Korea and prefer radio from then on. Kind of harsh to learn that you lost a company when the sole survivor walks two miles to tell you the men are low on ammunition, and then the relief takes fire from the hill they were on.

Posted by: Chris_Balsz at March 24, 2014 08:25 AM (5xmd7)

76 Oh, and is the article implying we can't make an educated guess without "radio chatter" even though there was satellite imagery? A picture is worth a thousand fucking words.

Posted by: no good deed at March 24, 2014 08:26 AM (vBhbc)

77 We used them in Korea and prefer radio from then on. Kind of harsh to learn that you lost a company when the sole survivor walks two miles to tell you the men are low on ammunition, and then the relief takes fire from the hill they were on. Posted by: Chris_Balsz at March 24, 2014 12:25 PM (5xmd7) I got nothin. It just sucks, don't it?

Posted by: tangonine at March 24, 2014 08:27 AM (x3YFz)

78 @75 I am not advocating for VP telephones. Germans suspected we might be reading their mail, and used other means to order some divisions around. Had we been tapping their phones, coded radio might have been the alternative. This is a principle of interception intelligence. Can't help but think you read-past my points on purpose with that. What are you saying, exactly, in regard to Russian army?

Posted by: Stringer Davis at March 24, 2014 08:30 AM (xq1UY)

79 Quit picking your nose.

Posted by: NSA [/i] [/b] at March 24, 2014 08:34 AM (5ikDv)

80 Look at it from The One's point of view. If US intelligence missed the threat, then it's not The One's fault that he just diddled around and did nothing.

Posted by: Anon Y. Mous at March 24, 2014 08:34 AM (IN7k+)

81 Snowden should have been shot dead in the middle of the street a long time ago. Very publicly. But Barry like's the fact it is weakening our country.

Posted by: Marcus T. at March 24, 2014 08:37 AM (GGCsk)

82 Russia will not invade the Ukraine. Everything now is to foment unrest to cement Crimea. Ukraine is simply too large: 45 million...wait minus 3 million from Crimea = 42 million. Russia has 143 million +3 million = 146 million. Simply too much to chew off. And Ukrainian guerillas fought the Soviets until 1956. Now, what about those Eastern areas? 1) Historically Ukrainian. Much harder for Ukrainians to accept their loss. 2) Mixed populations. Crimea had small minorities that preferred Kiev. These other areas probably have more. Enough to have an insurgency. I'd say Russia would be more likely to go after some of the Stans.

Posted by: sexypig at March 24, 2014 08:42 AM (dZQh7)

83 Don't "assume" because politicians in our intelligence agencies made political assumptions to please their masters in the White House, that the signet wasn't there and might very welled have been missed by mistake or on purpose.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 24, 2014 08:44 AM (t3UFN)

84 58. "But but but... RESET!" - Obammy and his Merry Band of Minions Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Bossy Assault Hobbit at March 24, 2014 12:07 PM (4df7R) Reset Reset! "it seems" US lost intercept-ability When Clinton-Obama administrations foreign policy agenda is to redistribute whatever, free US National Security Intelligence gifted to China, go figure the difference between lost, gifted and stolen. (If you can stand the smell of Burger's underwear and his dog that ate his national archive 'homework'.) changing of the internet guard Carter gave away the Panama Canal. Bad enough losing control of waterway. Venezuela taking bids on constructing it's own trans-oceanic channel just in time for the media black-out and foreign-aid armed insurrections. Obama gives up on global internet after his ACA online flop. As if the alphabet NHS DHS soup cares who claims "rights" to monopolize ownership of online intel. There's no inability to intercept communications. Doesn't matter what claims to the contrary. What we've got here is failure to communicate -- out of sheer obtuse rationale. CYA

Posted by: Zorro Toronado at March 24, 2014 08:44 AM (/vO0r)

First, literally centuries of strategic practice, common sense, and current economic imperatives (energy exports) made a strong Russian reaction to the increasing chaos in Ukraine inevitable. The Crimea element was especially obvious. No specific operational intel required. Duh.

Second, they're called intel "estimates" for a reason. They're often - unavoidably, understandably - wrong.

Third, land lines, couriers, even low-powered radio. Not that complicated when you're operating within your own borders, fer chrissakes.

Fourth, don't underestimate how mediocre US intel analysis can be. Personal experience has found absolutely wild variation between excellent and ridiculous. Overall, though, unfortunately, I'll have to go with mediocre Beltway-level crap as a likely general description. Technical analysis (just how reliable is that new liquid-fueled rocket design? how many ways can Armenia import gas if that one pipeline continues to be shut down by the Azeris?) can be excellent. Strategic and political intel ....?? Anecdotal but extensive data, from personal experience (ranging from the very top of the community down to the worker bee level) - not that impressive.

None of which relates to the Ukraine stuff. This is - as many world situations - the sort of thing where just some regional knowledge and common sense give one as much insight as whatever NIE is circulating these days.

Posted by: non-purist at March 24, 2014 08:47 AM (afQnV)

86 Hey anyone with half a brain knew Putin was going to take overt the Crimea just from reading the news. Says alot about the idiots in the obama admin

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 24, 2014 08:49 AM (t3UFN)

87 Aren't they supposed to be about not taking information at face value or the easy route to a solution? You could think they'd war game this out: what if the Russians could intercept our communications and determine our plans ahead of time? what could we do to counter that? In this case, since the timing wasn't be dictated to Putin, they may have simply put the orders in the post...and mailed them. No transmissions. No emails. No entries into computers No leakage.

Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at March 24, 2014 08:53 AM (1hM1d)

88 "So, has Snowden enabled the Russians to evade US signal gathering? It's seems possible, maybe even likely." --- Only to a moron. Do yourself a favor and don't eat up Mr.Rogers attempt at excusing away the ineptness of our intel apparatus give the 10's of billions we spend on it yearly. Anyone who thinks Snowden had anything to share with the Russians that they didn't already pretty much know is kidding themselves.

Posted by: ThisBeingMilt at March 24, 2014 08:55 AM (7mQyC)

Hmmmm. What would a guy who carps about losing former Soviet territory be doing with troops on the doorstep of a former territory? US Intelligence officials are puzzled because they didn't get a phone which explained mysterious gathering. If this represents US intelligence, how bad can the US dumbasses be?

Posted by: southpaw at March 24, 2014 08:57 AM (Z2OIC)

Russia's Ukraine actions are, strategically, defensive, not offensive. That is, they seek to maintain key elements of the status quo - some recent, like key pipeline routes for export, others older than the US itself, like a Ukraine that is either integral territory or at the least not strongly aligned with foreign powers.

This doesn't tell us whether or not Russia will do anything directly in Donetsk/Kharkov/etc. My guess (guess) would be no. Russia needs a Russia-aligned or very Russia-friendly Ukraine that is stable enough to transport their energy exports, plus Crimea. That's about it. How Putin interpets the situation and decides how to protect these vital interests is the inscrutable part. Crimea's taken care of already. Russian minorities and the eastern cities are a lot more complicated.

I don't see why the 'stans or Baltics would have to worry. The 'stans are all cool with Moscow, far as I know. They don't really have much fundamental conflict, as long as trade proceeds smoothly and no Islamic extremism enters the picture (something the regimes in the 'stans fight with the same delicacy that the Russians use in the Caucasus). Baltics? Russia has used Russian minorities there since '91 as levers for mostly verbal mischief, to keep them off balance. Really doubt things will go beyond that (absent some unlikely new disorder by those minorities themselves, most of whom rather enjoy and benefit being in those much more pleasant and western-connected little countries).

Posted by: non-purist at March 24, 2014 08:58 AM (afQnV)

91 I'd say Russia would be more likely to go after some of the Stans. --- Unless they're going for Turkmenistan, I don't really see why they'd bother. Tajikistan is dirt poor and has little real resources to speak of. Uzbekistan is rich in gold, copper, uranium, natural gas, etc., but also has 30m people crammed into 450,000 square KM. It would be like trying to conquer California as far as space and population density. Kyrgyzastan is a poor kleptocracy which is only slightly better off economically than Takikistan. Kazakhstan is rich in oil but is still run by the same Communist leader it had under the USSR back in the early 90s and has very good ties with both Russia and China.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at March 24, 2014 09:04 AM (APuJ7)

92 46 Snowden should have his dick cut off, drawn and quartered, left to suffer for as long as possible, and then executed. And anyone that thinks this traitor is any hero can go fuck themselves.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 24, 2014 12:00 PM (t3UFN)

So, what would you do to Jefferson, Washington, Franklin? Traitors all, and guilty of armed insurrection to boot.

Posted by: PersonFromPorlock at March 24, 2014 09:05 AM (UYiBe)

93 82. sexypig Evidently the Stans were so named by the Persians. To date, Russia has agreement with Iran. Buffer zones are one thing, negotiated peace under Russian terms. It isn't as if either of those two nations want the headaches of military interventionism a la USSR "liberating" Afghanistan. No, unfortunately for all, that's the US EU NATO bag o' shit now that Hillary-Obama ordered our Military gone hog wild spreading Chaos to all citizens of the world regardless of Identity. Benghazi CIA delivered all of Libya's armaments to their trained (Saudi) Sunni terrorists who not only are spreading death to Syrians, but have returned to Fallujah Iraq to demolish all the "nation building" accomplished against all suicidal Rules of Engagement odds by our troops. DISHEARTENING: "winning the hearts and minds of the enemy" LIE. All for naught. Unless we clean out Washington. Matt23:27 headline update: it seems the US post-constitutional government has lost all credibility. Hence, beyond STFU: Arbeit Macht Frei, no able communications with its own citizenry, regardless of interceptions domestic and global.

Posted by: Zorro Toronado at March 24, 2014 09:06 AM (/vO0r)

94 Anyone curious to see what it would be like if 1979 were stretched out over three years had better have a good seat and some popcorn ready. Because here we go.

Posted by: sans_sheriff at March 24, 2014 09:08 AM (D8m/s)

95 92. Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 24, 2014 12:00 PM (t3UFN) Don't stay stuck on stupid. Obsessing over Snowden totally misses the real enemy occupying the OO and Hillary who should be convicted and held accountable in Prison 2016.

Posted by: Zorro Toronado at March 24, 2014 09:09 AM (/vO0r)

96 b.s.

Posted by: bour3 at March 24, 2014 09:10 AM (5x3+2)

97 "Anyone who thinks Snowden had anything to share with the Russians that they didn't already pretty much know is kidding themselves. Posted by: ThisBeingMilt at March 24, 2014 12:55 PM (7mQyC) " The difference between "Pretty much know" and "confirmed" is a few million bucks that gets spent on other anti-American projects.

Posted by: Chris_Balsz at March 24, 2014 09:16 AM (5xmd7)

98 94. sans-sheriff 1979? It was a very good year. http://tinyurl.com/pc4zars Sin-Atra

Posted by: Dee Snider at March 24, 2014 09:17 AM (/vO0r)

99 Snowden is a fucking scumbag traitor who deserves a bullet to the back of the head, then be revived for another bullet to the front of the head.

Posted by: Lost In Maryland at March 24, 2014 09:19 AM (CDGl8)

100 Don't overlook the impact of hiring gov employees on the basis of ideological purity, nepotism, corruption and cronyism. Do those things, especially all at once, and you will have no one but incompetents in charge of everything, including intel ops. We've done those things, and we've done them all at once. Hanlon's Razor. Occam's Razor.

Posted by: MrRedNeckParadise at March 24, 2014 09:41 AM (q6kaG)

101 Yes, I'm sure the Russians have never heard of radio blackouts and written or verbal orders.

Must be Snowden's fault.

Posted by: Richard McEnroe at March 24, 2014 09:44 AM (XO6WW)

102 The thing to look for is, did Russian commo traffic drop off precipitately? If it didn't, the odds are good that they were practicing electronic 'maskirovka,' using orders for "maneuvers" and "exercises" to position troops and equipment.

Posted by: Richard McEnroe at March 24, 2014 09:45 AM (XO6WW)

103 "Even though there was a warning, we didn't have the information to be able to say exactly what was going to happen," a senior U.S. official says. REALLY?? So, U.S. "intelligence" EXPECTS the enemy to hand over (on a f&*ing platter) all information which tells us 'exactly what's going to happen.' I can't BELIEVE those retro Russian Commies are refusing to go along with the program. Obviously, Obama needs to give Mr. Putin another good listening to

Posted by: alwyr at March 24, 2014 09:50 AM (V0j3u)

104 How much of this due to our de-emphasis of HUMINT over tech? We've passed up spies for spy-eyes-in-the-sky in spite of that approach's documented limitations.

Posted by: Richard McEnroe at March 24, 2014 09:51 AM (XO6WW)

105 "No. What we're saying is that, for whatever reason, our intel on Russia has gone silent. I don't know if that's all Snowden (I'm sure some of it is), but it's an international embarrassment for our gubmint to have been taken completely by surprise by an invasion that we should have seen coming and been preparing a response to for MONTHS. Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Bossy Assault Hobbit at March 24, 2014 12:03 PM (4df7R) _________________________ Hobbit: True...Dat. However, it's even MORE egregious that a "Senior U.S. Official" would stand up in front of the entire world and ADMIT the US has lost its capability to eavesdrop on Russia. There USED to be a time when THAT sort of information would have been considered so damaging it would NEVER have been revealed unless/until the problem had been fixed.

Posted by: alwyr at March 24, 2014 10:03 AM (V0j3u)

106

I remember in an earlier thread stating that Putin was not giving Snowden room and board without something in exchange ("And if you tell us everything real fast, you can keep your fingernails!") and some commenter I had never seen before downplayed that for reasons that weren't fully given.

Posted by: Mikey NTH - Buy Four Outrages, get a Rightous Indignation Free! at March 24, 2014 10:10 AM (hLRSq)

107 Let bozo send in a charge of the gay brigades

Posted by: Janine garafalo at March 24, 2014 10:11 AM (XuLGm)

108 This spirited 'debate' on (Sigint) communications security will be rendered moot when the UN takes over administrative control of the internet (or should I say when Barry turns over administrative control of the internet to the U.N.)

Posted by: alwyr at March 24, 2014 10:15 AM (V0j3u)

109 1) Crimea does not bother me in the least.
2) Pols have done more harm than Snowden ever could.
3) I hope you all realize how much of the work at NSA is done by the military.

Posted by: Big Ben at March 24, 2014 10:19 AM (I5Htn)

110 Hey anyone with half a brain knew Putin was going to take overt the Crimea just from reading the news. Says alot about the idiots in the obama admin Posted by: Nevergiveup at March 24, 2014 12:49 PM (t3UFN) ________________ Depends on what 'news' Barry was reading. NYT, for example, had an editorial (listing 5 reasons why Putin will NOT invade Crimea) which editorial appeared a mere 3 hours before Mr Putin....yup, you guessed it...invaded Crimea

Posted by: alwyr at March 24, 2014 10:19 AM (V0j3u)

111

That was one hell of an op Putin's KGB...er...whatever the fuck they call the KGB now ran.

Lesson to future hostiles - when your spies are about to be burned, have them leak what your target country did to itself and its allies on their way out. You'll fool a solid third of those in your target country, and every ally, into thinking your spies are heroes to them.

Posted by: steveegg at March 24, 2014 10:25 AM (o44nj)

112

Sure. No one ever talks about us... and we won!

Posted by: the Heavy Brigade at March 24, 2014 11:57 AM (hn5v5)

Which the Light Brigade fucked up.

Posted by: steveegg at March 24, 2014 10:33 AM (o44nj)

113

The Light Brigade fucked up twice, actually - before they committed mass suicide by order misinterpretation, they missed a chance to wipe out the Russians during the charge of the Heavy Brigade because of, you guessed it, order misinterpretation.

Posted by: steveegg at March 24, 2014 10:38 AM (o44nj)

114 In case someone hasn't mentioned it. we missed the fall of the Berlin Wall also.

Posted by: baldilocks at March 24, 2014 10:46 AM (36Rjy)

115 And the fact that the satellites caught the build-up means that this wasn't an operator or even an analyst failure. It's a leadership failure. Big surprise there.

Posted by: baldilocks at March 24, 2014 10:53 AM (36Rjy)

116 Snowden is the new Bush. So, It's Bush's Snowden's fault!

Actually Obama/Hillary got enough "flexibility" after the election and scaled back intelligence gathering from Russia to please Putin vis-a-vis the Iranian sanctions matter at the UN.

Who could have imagined that Putin would ever take advantage of Obama's "flexibility"?

Posted by: Dr. Deano at March 24, 2014 10:56 AM (NXgTz)

117 Will the next round of Obama exit ramps require that Russia return to the pre-March 21, 2014 borders?

Posted by: bkeyser at March 24, 2014 11:00 AM (OsxDX)

118 Why would they need Snowden to fool our "intelligence" services ? A few points that seem applicable: - as pointed out above, they are too busy watching US targets, including Smart Military Blogs; - they may be just as blissfully incompetent as the rest of the governmental apparat; - Putin, as an ex-KGB, trained in Old Soviet times, must be perfectly aware of all the methods used to avoid and/or spoof our signals intelligence efforts, and is using them again. I'm betting they just used disposable cellphones to coordinate this, rather than normal military communications - which also fits nicely with the whole disinformation story about this all being activity by unknown and unaffiliated, (but heavily armed), masked men who just happened to be in the vicinity. Not a lot of plausible deniability if they're all using big green Red Army Surplus radios. Not saying any of this because I love Snowden, just my thoughts as regarding Occams Razor.

Posted by: sock_rat_eez at March 24, 2014 11:03 AM (+jyzN)

119 Nice article on the Crimea Drew... liked the trivia on your page link....

Posted by: Some Guy in Wisconsin at March 24, 2014 12:05 PM (bcsbl)

120 Sure a lot of Ace of Spades followers who are swallowing up Hook, Line, and Sinker, the Obama administration bait that our intel has dried up, instead of realizing what this is... ANOTHER F'ING LIE. My goodness, when the lie fits what you want to believe you spew it out like you're the mouthpieces for the New York Times or MSNBC, it has to be a fact, well, because. Calm down folks and realize what's going on, this is a White House plan to deflect criticism onto a straw puppet, nothing different than what they've been doing since they took office. It will work because the liberals are always on their side, and they can get the GOP establishment hawks who hate Snowden to go along with them because, well, they hate Snowden and any little accusation no matter how preposterous gets shot up to 'mostly likely', and 'probably true' status because it fills that little need inside them to be justified in their belief.

Posted by: doug at March 24, 2014 12:21 PM (uJ8q7)

121 The US gave their government a lot of money to destroy their weapons. The US government, working for Russia's and France's interests since 2001.

Posted by: DocMerlin at March 24, 2014 12:34 PM (kP3K0)

122 I would like to point out that, when it came to deciding who the victor was in the battle between the KGB and the CIA during the Cold War, those it the know say it was easily the KGB running away. The KGB penetrated US and NATO intel agencies with ease and frigntening regularity. If it came down to what we did or did not keep from them, it would be more accurate to wonder what we <i>didn't</i> manage to keep from them. The KGB WTFowned, and likely still owns, everyone in the world when it comes to intel.
So, all that being said, now that they are much closer to technical parity than they were in the bad old days of the Cold War, it should surprise no one that they can keep their comms hidden. Hell, with this administration, I'm surprised we're still looking.

Posted by: Mark Dietzler at March 24, 2014 01:32 PM (W+zly)

123 Is Snowden the new automatic excuse for all intel failures from now on? I mean Snowden must be to blame for Iraq chems disappearing and OBL vanishing from radar for a decade.

Posted by: Aristotle at March 24, 2014 01:57 PM (xWjym)

124 I'm happy to have Snowden come back to the US and face a firing squad

methinks drew should go first for being a tool.

Posted by: JB at March 24, 2014 02:15 PM (K/J3u)

125 >>The KGB penetrated US and NATO intel agencies with ease and frigntening regularity. If it came down to what we did or did not keep from them, it would be more accurate to wonder what we didn't manage to keep from them. The KGB WTFowned, and likely still owns, everyone in the world when it comes to intel.<< Not quite; it'd be more accurate to say the West regularly produces a Boyce, an Ames, a Walker, a Snowden, and the KGB is just open to do business with what they call a "walk-in".

Posted by: Chris_Balsz at March 24, 2014 02:49 PM (5xmd7)

126 "Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort."

For those of you who call Snowden a traitor. Of course, it's just some 200-year-old document, so don't pay it any mind. I suppose that with the proper understanding of "Enemies", anyone can be a traitor.

Posted by: Jerome at March 24, 2014 05:04 PM (eQa5p)

127
Putin didn't need to go dark about his intentions. He could have signaled his intentions with bells and whistles and and a trombone section for all the difference it would not have made to the risk or the outcome.

Posted by: Occam's Floss at March 24, 2014 06:11 PM (YBusZ)

128

Posted by: DFCtomm at March 25, 2014 12:14 PM (cxkKV)

129 Is there no understanding here ? Obama filled our security with with muslims and little czars, what would you expect from doing such a thing ? What would Christian and Jew expect for turning from God and doing Satans work, overthrowing a Judeo-Christian nation ? You are whom you work for and serve, and God has not been the one for millions that stood idly by or worked for the wicked gladly.
Due recompense is here.

Posted by: ron n. at March 26, 2014 02:03 PM (c7HxG)

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