I stupidly forgot about this angle. The Prickly Princess is, of course, calling these Vietnam Vets liars because they have the audacity to call another Vietnam Vet a liar. Yeah, it's confusing, but that's McCain's brand of Straight-Talk (TM).

This will of course be used by the media to refute the charges (despite the fact that John McCain is, at best, a character-witness and not a fact-witness), or ignore them entirely, if they can get away with it.

And there's a limit to how much Bush can silently embrace the ad before we start hearing about the possibility of a McCain flip. So far, he's refused to condemn the ad. I think it's time to use the liberals' ridiculous non-sequitor answer to calls for condemnation of a statement: "I defend their right to express themselves..."

If that works for liberals as regards any statement no matter how outrageous, I don't see why it shouldn't also work for Bush.

Oh, wait. I guess I do see why: the liberal media has a rule that this non-sequitor dodge can only be used by liberals defending other liberals.

It's trickier than I first thought.

Update-- The O'Neill Factor: Beldar has done something few others have: he actually cross-examined John O'Neill during his testimony at a (non-political, non-sexy) trial. His conclusion:

But from my own first-hand experience cross-examining John O'Neill under oath, I can say that I fully believe that John O'Neill fully believes what he's saying — and that he's a damned credible witness in my opinion.

We'll see, I guess.

Liberal Hypocrisy Watch: Wizbang reports that the favored liberal counterattack consists of branding this ad illegitimate because it's being funded by an anti-Kerry 527 group.

He notes that the same liberals seem pretty rah-rah, "You go girl" when it comes to the $15 million spent in the past three months by anti-Bush 527's.

Hat tip to AllahPundit.

Update: Aaron fisks Salon's attack on the Swift Boat Vets.

Posted by: Ace at 10:16 AM | Comments (17)
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...has two very annoying stories for you to be angered by.

Here, Baghdad Jim McDermott is reported by the Seattle Times making scarifying statements to the nation's youth that there will be a military draft in Bush's second term:

He told the students that changes in military combat tours is "an unwritten, sneak draft." And he said an official draft could be coming soon.

"Everybody in this room who is 17 years old should know that the likelihood of a draft in a second Bush administration is almost a certainty," McDermott said.

Well, that is indeed a sobering prospect for young men. Bush is bad-- he's bringing back the draft.

The Seattle Times, amazingly, fails to report that there is already a bill to re-enact the draft in Congress-- co-sponsored by Baghdad Jim McDermott.

I think that's sort of relevant to the story, don't you?

Meanwhile, Congressional Democrats vow to inject government censorship into news-coverage. They don't like FoxNews, and they think "legislative means" might be helpful in forcing FoxNews to report stories they way liberals think they should be reported.

Ummmm... I don't like tossing around the word "fascist" lightly, but aren't we entering a real danger area when partisan government officials are taking it upon themselves to limit free speech?

In the "public interest," of course-- they're always acting on behalf of the masses.

What the hell else can you call a demand for government monitoring and approval of media reportage?

As Kevin Pollack might say, "Were you absent the day they taught law at law school?"

Posted by: Ace at 09:50 AM | Comments (13)
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Stunning news:

Saddam Hussein had an active nuclear weapons development program at the time of the U.S. invasion in March 2003, chief U.S. weapons inspector Charles Duelfer has told Congress.

In comments that received virtually no press coverage in the United States, Duelfer testified that Iraq was "preserving and expanding its knowledge to design and develop nuclear weapons." One Iraqi laboratory "was intentionally focused on research applicable for nuclear weapons development," the top weapons inspector said.

...

The former U.N. weapons inspector, who replaced David Kay as head of the CIA's Iraq Survey Group last year, said that Saddam was financing his nuclear program by misappropriating funds from the U.N.'s Oil-for-Food Program.

Go figure on that one.

According to Duelfer, Saddam was able to use Oil-for-Food to boost his military procurement budget to $500 million annually &$0150; a 100-fold increase from 1996 to 2003.

I don't know what the botched symbol means there, either. There's a mistake here, somewhere. If the original budget was $500 million, then a "100-fold increase" would bring that up to, what?, $50 BILLION a year? That's not possible. Either the first number is too high or the "100-fold" figure is too high.

For now, let's just read: "he increased his budget greatly."

...

Ivan Oelrich, a physicist at the Federation of American Scientists, told the Associated Press at the time that the low-enriched uranium stockpile could have produced enough highly enriched uranium to make a single nuclear bomb.

In March 2003, Vice President Dick Cheney said there was evidence that Iraq was reconstituting its nuclear weapons program, but the claim was widely dismissed by congressional investigators as well as U.S. reporters.

Posted by: Ace at 09:42 AM | Comments (11)
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Did our recent capture of Mohammed Naeem Noor Khan suddenly allow us to read months, or possibly years, of previously unbreakable Al Qaeda encrypted messages?

Strategypage thinks maybe so. Public-key encryption has made it nearly impossible, or at least extremely difficult, to break coded messages typed on a personal computer using inexpensive, easily-obtained software. Long-key codes could take even the most powerful supercomputers years and even decades to break using brute-force methods.

But the one problem with any code is that you've got to keep the keys secret, or else your opponents can read your messages as easily as you can.

And maybe Mr. Khan had his keys -- maybe quite a few keys -- on his computer when he was captured. This could account for the recent blitz of terrorism arrests.

Even if the freshly-decrypted material is "dated intelligence" whose sudden decipherability is "suspiciously timed."

Update: Dave points out that, by so aggressively making unfounded charges of "suspicious timing," the liberals have forced the Bush Administration to reveal greater details about this intelligence than they initially thought prudent:

But, in having to defend the latest intel, the Administration has been forced-- for purely political reasons, by the Deaniacs and the media who love them-- to provide Al Qaeda with the knowledge of how we got this intel, and how we corroborated it not once, but *twice*. Gee, why don't we just invite these guys over to Ft. Meade while we're at it?

Thanks, guys!

Posted by: Ace at 12:00 AM | Comments (6)
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An unscripted program discussing issues of the day, moderated by your host, bloviating ex-Jesuit hardass Ace of Spades.

ACE OF SPADES: Issue Number One. That blistering anti-Kerry ad by a group of Vietnam veterans calling themselves Swift Boat Vets for Truth. It's a tough, effective ad in which decorated Vietnam war veterans -- many having been awarded the Bronze Star and other decorations -- call John Forbes Kerry a "liar" and allege he "betrayed" his men, and his nation.

On a scale of one to ten, one indicating no damage from the ad, ten indicating complete metaphysical destruction, how do you rate the ad's effectiveness and likely impact on the presidential campaign?

SAY ANYTHING BLOG: You have to admit, this commercial is going to be hard for Kerry to refute. ... This doesn't look good for John Kerry. [Ace's guess as to rating: 5]

ACE: WRONG!!!! Allah?

ALLAH PUNDIT: Allah's taking a cautious line on the swift boat vets... [Ace's guess as to rating: 3]

ACE: WRONG!!! And don't refer to yourself in the third person. It's presumptuous, even for a deity. Roger "The Dodger" Simon?

ROGER L. SIMON: If one person says you're drunk, ignore him. If six people say you're drunk, sit down. I don't think Kerry is going to sit down, but maybe he should. And as Instapundit notes, the candidate asked for it by making his supposed heroism in the Vietnam War, of all things, the centerpiece of his presidential campaign in 2004.... He better have a good answer to these allegations, other than the ad being paid for by Bush People, because that dog don't hunt. We need the truth. [Ace's guess as to rating: 6]

ACE: WRONG!!! Spoons!!!

SPOONS: I think it quite likely that the representations in this ad are true. An ad like this is dangerous business, though. I can easily see it backfiring. [Ace's guess: 6 or 0 if it backfires; average, 3]

ACE: WRONG!!! WILDLY WRONG!!! So wrong, in fact, you're not getting your parking validated. Lorie "Poli Want a Cracker" Byrd!!!!

LORIE BYRD/POLIPUNDIT: Speechless! ... This is the most devastating political ad I have ever seen - bar none. ...

Then the men who served with him are shown in front of the picture Poli linked to today. They look distinguished, professional, not bitter or wacko. There is no sinister music playing like in so many negative ads. The statement from the man who treated Kerry for one of his purple heart wounds is incredible. The fact that these men would "face the fire" that will surely come with appearing in a controversial campaign ad, in itself, adds tons of credibility to the ad and its message. Just thinking about that ad still takes my breath away. It really is powerful. .... [Ace's guess: 9]

INSTAPUNDIT [crosstalk]: Yeah, I'd say that's right. And Kerry played right into this with all the stuff about Vietnam and medals. [Ace's guess: probably a little less enthusiastic than Polipundit; 7]

ACE: Instapundit, WRONG!!! Poli-- Right church, wrong pew. Powerline!!!

POWERLINE BLOG (HINDROCKET): The ad is powerful, but, in my opinion, not as persuasive as it could be because it is so general. The veterans say that Kerry has lied about his service; the doctor who treated Kerry for the wound that gave rise to his first Purple Heart says Kerry's account is untrue; they say Kerry betrayed his comrades. But there are no details, no facts. Of course, there is only so much you can do in thirty seconds. Despite the lack of detail, the ad is a lot more powerful than anything the Bush campaign has come up with, and I've given the Swift Boat Veterans some money to put it on the air. I hope you will too. [Ace's guess: 5]

ACE: METAPHYSICALLY WRONG!!! Details are for follow-up media stories and for books. An advertisement is a medium for conveying a meme, a single idea. Ads don't sell a candidate's health care policy, to the extent such a "policy" even exists; they sell the simple idea that the candidate has a health care policy at all. The ad's power and effectiveness cannot be discounted due to its brevity, no more than a sonnet should have points deducted for not having four more lines. The ad exists to introduce a couter-story to the prevailing Kerry Vietnam myth favored to by the media. And it succeeds brilliantly at introducing that counter-story. It does not prove it; but then, it could not prove it, due to the limitations of the medium.

POWERLINE BLOG: But--

ACE: WRONG!!! You had your chance and you BLEW IT! You'll just have to LIVE WITH THAT SHAME for the rest of your life. Florida Cracker!!!

FLORIDA CRACKER: Live by Vietnam, die by Vietnam, Mr. Kerry. [Ace's guess: 8]

ACE: Your aphorisms are intoxicating. But not quite right. Ryne "My Momma Was Too Poor to Afford Me a Proper First Name" McLaren!!!

RYNE McCLAREN: Will this be the moment when photo-ops will no longer be enough for John Kerry? This ad, and others that will surely follow, could be that big. [Ace's guess: 8]

ACE: I like the recent convergence. SondraK!

SONDRA K: HOLY ****!!!! [Ace's guess: 8.5]

ACE: I think that's the most precisely-correct reaction so far.

The correct answer is that the ad scores between a 6 and an 8 on the political damage scale. The ad doesn't prove any of the allegations, nor even precisely detail them; but if there's one thing the Democrats have taught us all in the past two years, it's not necessary to prove an allegation for it to be damaging. It is enough to simply assert it enough times that the public begins assuming that at least a good fraction of it is true. [For the record, I think everything they're saying is true-- whether that can be proven, however, is a different story, as is whether a generally-underinformed public can be persuaded to look at the available evidence and make a competent decision.]

The tone of the ad-- sober and reasonable -- makes the ferocious charges leveled all the more damning. As Polipundit points out, had this ad been filled with the typical cheeseball conventions of the negative political ad-- creepy synthesizer chords, grainy black-and-white photos -- it would have diminished the ad's power. Instead, each of the heroic Vietnam veterans is simply allowed to speak as a chyron displays their name, rank, and decorations earned in battle.

The ad is potentially devastating. Vietnam is John Kerry's only claim on the White House. If that "fortress" becomes damaged by the public beginning to suspect that at least part of what these men say is true (just as the Democrats have convinced the public, absent strong evidence, to believe at least part of their "Bush lied, kids died" thesis), then Kerry's support will drop by two to four points -- enough to swing a tight election.

And Kerry will be forced to answer difficult questions about how exactly he did come to be transferred to the safety of a Pentagon office after serving only four months in Vietnam. He cannot be helped by answering such questions, even if he's telling the truth. Because the truth of the matter is -- no matter how much the media wants to hide it -- that John Kerry began filing Paperwork over Papercuts from the moment he got into 'Nam in order to get his rich pampered white ass home as soon as possible. Even if he did nothing illegal, that's not the part of his Vietnam Legend he wishes the public to be focusing on.

And that doesn't even take into account his slanderous blood-libels against his fellow veterans. All that crap about widespread atrocities -- which Kerry claimed to have personally witnessed -- is all preserved on videotape.

The media has been hell-bent to ignore Kerry's vicious pro-enemy lies until now. This ad could force them to actually examine them.

How damaging the ad will be depends on the coming weeks-- how frequently the ad is run, how disciplined the media is in closing ranks, mafia-like, around their wounded liberal capo. Assuming minor penetration, the ad will score a hit, a palpable hit, but not a deadly one.

With actual media follow-up -- and this does have the potential for a major shitstorm-- Kerry could be politically crippled in a month.

Update-- The Drudge Factor: Well, Drudge still features this as his big banner headline, so it looks like this should be the big story of tomorrow as the world wakes up.

Sleep late. Sleep till 2:00 pm. Leave that banner up, Drudge.

Leave that banner up.

Posted by: Ace at 10:19 PM | Comments (27)
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Rational Explications makes this nice catch:

To a great degree there is no Democratic party candidate John Kerry. There is an abstract "anti-Bush" candidate who has been compelled, in accordance with the US electoral system, to take on human form and assume a human name...

The quote goes on to be very somber about John Forbes Kerry's chances in November, but you'll just have to click on the link for that.

Hmmmmm... a creature who has been "compelled... to take on a human form and assume a human name." Sounds like a hearty endorsement of the Ace of Spades HQ "Doppleganger" theory.

Posted by: Ace at 09:51 PM | Comments (1)
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Joshua Micah Marshall Charges Arrest "Suspiciously Timed" to "Distract" English Attention Away from Benny Hill Marathon on BBC3

If this is "suspicious timing," let us have more of it:

Police in Britain are holding a senior Al-Qaeda operative who was allegedly planning an attack on London's main Heathrow airport, major British newspapers reported.

In a front-page report, The Times said the man was arrested after a tip-off from Pakistani intelligence, which claimed that he was getting orders direct from Osama bin Laden "as head of Al-Qaeda operations in Britain".

It quoted Pakistani officals as saying that details about Heathrow -- the world's busiest international airport -- were found in the computer of an Al-Qaeda member arrested last month in Pakistan whose job it was to send coded messages to Al-Qaeda agents worldwide.

Update! Captain's Quarters points out that this arrest seems related to "dated intelligence" from last year.

What do you know? It seems that "dated intelligence" has its uses, eh?

Posted by: Ace at 07:28 PM | Add Comment
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Good article. I'm linking it chiefly for its terrific opening line:

I was under the naive impression that Clinton administration scandals would end once the Clinton administration ended.

One minor criticism, though:

I DON'T GET IT. IS THIS SARCASTIC? IF SO, YOU SURE LOST ME.

Posted by: Ace at 07:13 PM | Comments (4)
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Four "gunmen" -- civilians -- bust into terrorist lair and overpower kidnappers, freeing four Jordanian hostages.

Now, these "gunmen" are probably guys who were just shooting at us last month. But check this out:

The raid, in a city that has long been hostile to the U.S. military and supportive of Saddam Hussein (news - web sites), marked the first time local gunmen had broken foreign hostages out of captivity. They called the kidnappers "terrorists" and outsiders.

I like that.

Next: Iraqi troops battle terrorists in Mosul; first time they've fought without coalition support.

Now, that alone would be pretty good news. But there's an exclamation point to this story:

A brother of the founder of the radical Islamic group, Ansar al-Islam, was among the dead, Iraqi officials said.

But don't get the wrong idea-- he was, as we've come to expect, a famous Baghdad wedding singer. He was famous throughout the country for closing each wedding party with a showstopping medley of Unchained Melody, Sea of Love, and I'll Tumble 4 Ya

Posted by: Ace at 06:11 PM | Comments (2)
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Critics Question "Suspicious Timing" of Media's Sudden Disinterest in Stories About the "Suspicious Timing" of Leaks; Apparently Media Only Becomes Suspiciously Interested in the Suspicious Timing of Leaks When Those Leaks Hurt Liberals

All over Drudge right now. A big error on Shelby's part, no doubt; but I'm curious about the "timing" of this leak. Was this leaked in order to help "distract" us from John Kerry's negabounce?

Here's the really surprising part: Carl Cameron confirmed this. Isn't that a big no-no for reporters? Aren't they supposed to refuse to answer and suffer being incarcerated for contempt and al that jazz?

I like Carl, but I don't know if he's going to be getting any more scoops if he's snitching on sources.

Posted by: Ace at 05:59 PM | Comments (1)
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