Silver didn't actually predict a GOP Senate takeover; he only said the GOP was a "slight favorite" to take majority control. But even this was enough to spur Democrats into Heretic Denouncement mode.

But of course it doesn't take much to do that. That's their preferred mode of expression these last thirty years.

Democrats aren't taking Nate Silver's latest Senate prediction lying down.

In an unusual step, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Monday issued a rebuttal the famed statistician's prediction—made a day earlier—that Republicans were a "slight favorite" to retake the Senate. Silver was wrong in 2012, the political committee's Guy Cecil wrote in a memo, and he'll be wrong again in 2014.

Note that the Democrats have cited his predictions just this very cycle, to gin up the base:

[I]n fundraising pitches this cycle, Democrats regularly invoke his earlier prediction that the battle for Senate control was a "toss-up" [.]

But in the memo, Cecil argues that Silver's track record is less than stellar....

In truth, Silver's suggestions that Republicans are favorites to win the Senate matched the assessment of most analysts in Washington.

Silver's tentative forecast is here.

When FiveThirtyEight last issued a U.S. Senate forecast — way back in July — we concluded the race for Senate control was a toss-up. That was a little ahead of the conventional wisdom at the time, which characterized the Democrats as vulnerable but more likely than not to retain the chamber.

Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The DemocratsÂ’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President ObamaÂ’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.

His chart of the likely winners of all Senate seats up for election (not just the swing seats being vigorously contested) has Mary Landrieu's reelection as a 50/50 proposition.

Polls don't mean everything and are often wrong. Still, as between the guy saying "Skewed polls, yo!" and the guy saying "Polls are usually right," I'd rather be the latter. I was the former in 2012, and it was pretty awful.

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You might recall that the day before Russia made it's move in Crimea the US intelligence community (or at least a part of it) said the Russians were bluffing. That was...unfortunate.

Now there's a possible explanation for that atrocious error.

U.S. military satellites spied Russian troops amassing within striking distance of Crimea last month. But intelligence analysts were surprised because they hadn't intercepted any telltale communications where Russian leaders, military commanders or soldiers discussed plans to invade.

America's vaunted global surveillance is a vital tool for U.S. intelligence services, especially as an early-warning system and as a way to corroborate other evidence. In Crimea, though, U.S. intelligence officials are concluding that Russian planners might have gotten a jump on the West by evading U.S. eavesdropping.

"Even though there was a warning, we didn't have the information to be able to say exactly what was going to happen," a senior U.S. official says.

Hmmm, I wonder how the Russians might have been able to avoid having their communications intercepted? Oh right.

So, has Snowden enabled the Russians to evade US signal gathering? It's seems possible, maybe even likely. It's also possible the US after over a decade of focusing on terrorist treats and supporting efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan simply wasn't paying enough attention to the Russians or they just missed the signs.

I'm happy to have Snowden come back to the US and face a firing squad but I don't think we should jump to the conclusion that every intelligence failure from here on out is because of his crimes. It makes me nervous to see intelligence professionals jump to the easy conclusion. Aren't they supposed to be about not taking information at face value or the easy route to a solution?

Yes, they should be operating under the assumption that almost everything they do is compromised but the US intelligence community missed things before Snowden and shouldn't be exempt from having their work analyzed for problems going forward because of what he's done.

In related news....

The Russians could steamroll through Ukraine anytime they want.

The Ukrainian Army is preparing for battle by...raising money for equipment online.

And I put together a list of some of the things we still have today that date back to the "original" Crimean war back in the 1850s.

Posted by: DrewM at 07:48 AM | Comments (129)
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The British agency charged with investigating crashes in the UK along with the company that owns the satellites that handles the engine data transfers have refined the location data from the satellite "pings" that gave two options for where the plane went, the "northern corridor" towards central Asia and the "southern corridor" towards the Indian Ocean. The new findings show that the plane headed into the "southern corridor".

The Malaysian Prime Minister just announced based on the refined data they have concluded there were no possible landing sites and that the flight "ended" in Indian Ocean west of the Australian coast.

This location would seem consistent with the debris that's been spotted by satellites. There's still no confirmation linking that debris to the flight but....

Finding debris and eventually the location of the crash will only be the start of the process of figuring out how and why the hell the plane wound up there.

The full statement from the Malaysian PM:
more...

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• In Denial On Dependency
  
• The New Marxism
  
• Nate Silver's Senate Forecast Given At Gunpoint From The AoSHQDD Dungeon
  
• The Media's Democratic Donor Delusions
  
• Dem Strategist: Obamacare Being Terrorized By Hostile Ads
  
• The Sinkhole Of Bureaucracy
  
• Did You Know Socialized Medicine Can Incinerate Dead Babies To Heat Hospitals? The NHS Does
  
• The Prime Minister Of Japan Is Trying To Roll Back Parts Of Japan's Pacifist Constitution
  
• Burn The Heretic
  
• Egypt Sentences 529 Morsi Supporters To Death
  
• Charlie Rangel's Last Stand?
  
• Turkey Shoots Down Syrian Plane
  
• Bitcoin Vulnerability
  
• Are You Ready For Another Six Years Of John McCain
  
• MSNBC: Hate Forward
  

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Happy Monday.

The feminist porn professor who attacked prolife demonstrators because she'd been "triggered" by their signs will be arraigned on April 4. She faces charges for theft, battery, vandalism, and embarrassing public stupidity.

Wow. The sinkhole of bureaucracy. Not as much a metaphor as you'd think.

Page Six says CNN anchors Bill Weir, Don Lemon and Jake Tapper are in a "death match" for Piers Morgans soon-to-be-vacant time slot.

[RSS]

[On iTunes]

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I'm going to be super-busy this week so expect minimalistic sparse pithy ONTs.

Le Shock: Racist Dorm Door Writing Was a Hoax

The Grand Valley State University Police Department has concluded a thorough investigation of the Racial Bias incident reported on February 17, 2014. The person believed to be responsible for the drawing and language written on the dry erase board is a Grand Valley student and the owner of the message board.

The incident has had a disruptive impact on the community and as a result, the student has been referred to the Dean of Students for a student code violation. University policy does not permit the release of his/her name.

No they should be named and shamed. And why are these kind of incidents still taken seriously when they're almost always hoaxes.

Free Speech for Me, Theft, Battery, and Vandalism for Thee

Professor of Feminist Studies, Mireille Miller-Young: Thug. And yeah Ace has already covered the 'triggered' part of this story.

In essence, Miller-Young told me that she felt "triggered" by the images on the posters. Miller-Young stated that she had been walking through the Arbor to get back to South Hall. Miller-Young said she was approached by people who gave her literature about abortion. Miller-Young said that she found this literature and pictures disturbing.

...Miller-Young said that she situation became "passionate" and that other students in the area were "triggered" in a negative way by the imagery. Miller-Young said that she and others began demanding that the images be taken down. Miller-Young said that the demonstrators refused.

At which point, Miller-Young said that she "just grabbed it [the sign] from this girl's hands." Asked if there had been a struggle, Miller-Young stated, "I'm stronger so I was able to take the poster."

No doubt Miller-Young could write an entire thesis on physical domination and its role in victimization of minority views but she's absolutely blind to its application in her own actions. I suspect a little Fen's Law action here.

I asked if Miller-Young had carried the poster into her office or if she had students carried it. Miller-Young said that she had carried the poster but that there were students with her. Miller-Young went on to say that because the poster was upsetting to her and other students, she felt that the activists did not have the right to be there.

In a sane, decent world Miller-Young would not be allowed to have any authority over other human beings since she'll just certainly abuse it. But you know...

CA GOP Gubernatorial Candidate Has an Interesting Past

Well I'm sure that the illegal concealed carry, attempted rape, underage hookers, and voluntary manslaughter were all just misunderstandings. On the other hand perhaps he's just the guy to deal with all the un-convicted Democrat criminals in the state legislature.

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For all of your non-astronomy needs, an open thread for the horde. more...

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George Will: Paul Ryan was right — poverty is a cultural problem

Chocolate Martini

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[We Politely Request That All Off-Topic or Political Comments Be Directed to the Open Thread down page, Which Will Serve Officially as the Current "Active Conversation" Thread for All Discussions Not Related To This Topic. Enjoy!]

Welcome again to the Spaced-Out Challenge! Whether you have a question about equipment, a new astronomical discovery you want to expand on, or just want to kick back and enjoy the cosmos above, come one come all on our weekly astronomical journey.

This week, we finish our beginner's guide to the Messier Marathon, the best nights for which are coming on Saturday, March 29th, and Sunday, March 30th. The first two parts of our guide can be found here and here, and contain a comprehensive directory of dark sky spots for all fifty states if you want to give this challenge your all. In the last part, we were traveling through the vastness of intergalactic space. This week we will bring it on home in our own Milky Way with a collection of objects that, in my opinion, make the all-nighter worth it. So grab your scope or binoculars, step outside, and journey up and out into the vastness for this week's Spaced Out Challenge. more...

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Today the Sprint Cup Series take it to the two-mile track at Fontana, California for the Auto Club 400.

A newby fan of racing I'm looking forward to seeing a race on a longer track. My initial impression is that I don't care as much for the short tracks, such as Bristol.

Speaking of Bristol, last week's race was another race against the weather with the checkered flag eventually waving Carl Edwards (Roush Fenway team) in as the winner. The race ended under the caution light, an accidental occurrence due to someone bumping into the switch in the flagstand.

I wish I had more for you but I missed most of the race because.... Neil Simon.

Here's where the chase stands thus far. If anyone would like to explain how these scores are calculated, that would be terrific because, frankly, I can't figure it out.

Here's a cute thang for the Moronettes:

And for the Morons, here's Dale Jr.'s main squeeze, Amy Reimann:

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