In case you're having trouble getting on to Drudge, that's the screaming siren banner.

Regarding Florida: Beware the likely-hinky male-female splits. It could very well be that most Bush voters are just getting to the polls... oh, right around now.

Vote, vote, vote.

More: I hate stealing from Drudge, but his site does seem to be straining. So...

OH Tied FL Kerry +2 PA Kerry+2-4 WI Kerry+4 MI Kerry+2 NH Bush +7 // Senate Winners: Martinez FL Thune SD Bunning KY Salazar CO // Losers: Bowles NC Coors Co

As Drudge points out: Early exit polls in Florida showed Gore ahead by +3 in 2000. From that perspective, Bush is actually doing a little bit better.

Posted by: Ace at 02:21 PM | Comments (6)
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Well, not really any in yet, but it looks like MegaPundit will be on the case all night. Bless 'im.

Hat tip to Dear Johns.

Sorry for the lack of Hat-tip before, Johns. I had the window open for a while before I decided to link it, and by that time, I had no idea where it had come from.

Posted by: Ace at 02:15 PM | Comments (2)
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For once I'm not talking about that crazy blog-money. I can only watch one TV channel at a time, so if you can pick something interesting up from somewhere, by all means, pass it along. The stupid shit on this blog doesn't write itself, after all.

I'm especially keen on hearing about the body-language and mood of those in the Kerry campaign and the liberal media. Whoops, redundancy alert.

Carl Cameron's report on FoxNews seemed to indicate Kerry's people were optimistic, if not confident. But that might be a brave face.

And, of course, I need numbers. And backsliding pollsters. And Excitable Andy having a full-on conniption on national television.

Posted by: Ace at 02:12 PM | Add Comment
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John Fund has predictions and counsel.

He's also got the times of poll-closings, some of which I repost here:

G= Gubernatorial race; S = Senatorial race; #= electors

6 p.m.

Indiana 11 GS
Kentucky 8 S

As Fund says, somewhat obviously, we know which way these states are voting, but the important thing is whether Bush does better now than he did in 2000.

7 p.m.

New Hampshire 4 GS
Virginia 13

7:30 p.m.

Ohio 20 S
West Virginia 5 G

Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Don't expect a result early.

8 p.m.

Florida 27 S
Michigan 17
Missouri 11 GS
New Jersey 15
Pennsylvania 21 S

Florida, Florida, Florida. 8 o'clock should tell us who our President will be.

9 p.m.

Arizona 10 S
Colorado 9 S
Minnesota 10
New Mexico 5
Wisconsin 10 S

9 pm should seal the deal.

Well, that's enough for now. You can read Fund's article for the rest. He tells you what you should be looking for each round of poll-closings.

Posted by: Ace at 01:33 PM | Comments (17)
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Nothin' at all.

Just letting you know. I'm drier than a mummy with psoriasis.

Updates to follow.

So... what else is going on? What do you guys think of Raj from The Apprentice? I started out thinking he was going to be an embarassment to Republicans -- he's one of those guys who's just too damn eager to tell you he's Republican -- then I sorta liked him when he hit on Anna Kournikova (the balls!), now I'm leaning towards "embarassment" again, since he hits on everything and is apparently under the misimpression that the Apprentice is a dating show and that he'll soon spend some Alone Time in the jacuzzi with Bachelorette Carolyn.*

Don't get me wrong. There's nothing wrong with being horny. But, you know, time and place, dude.

So, you know, that's the five o'clock update.

* She both intrigues and frightens me, by the way. Ice Princess defined.

Update! Why did they cancel Manimal? The show was just, ahem, getting its legs.

Posted by: Ace at 01:06 PM | Comments (22)
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And therefore the biggest turnout of my lifetime. So says Newt Gingrich.

I really want to win this, for so many reasons I can't even list. But one of them-- a minor one -- is to finally rubbish the liberals' belief that there is an army of liberal voters out there who really, really want to elect liberal candidates to the presidency.

Posted by: Ace at 12:51 PM | Comments (13)
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Unweighted numbers, unadjusted by computer modeling, put Kerry just barely ahead in NM, FL, and OH, and a few other places.

But this was his best wave of the day. His best wave, and he only managed a 1-point lead in OH and FL.

It's looking a lot better now.

Posted by: Ace at 12:11 PM | Comments (11)
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Makes the good point that similar numbers in 2000 had Bush tied in Colorado.

He won by nine freaking points.

So: Don't Panic.

On the other hand, vote like you're panicking. Vote like a coked-up gibbon who overdosed on knockoff Mexican Viagra and who just scented a female in estrus.

Posted by: Ace at 11:46 AM | Comments (7)
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"the sampling on the midday numbers was 59/41 women to men. you are dealing with a known gender gap of like 9 pts. just fyi."

So says Temple of Jennifer, and she's never lied to me before.

But wouldn't they attempt to adjust for such a split? If those are the raw numbers, and Kerry's only slightly ahead, wouldn't that be very bad news for Kerry and very good news for Bush?

More: Not Weighted Yet: Jay Cost/The Horserace Blog says these early numbers are not weighted, adjusted, nor "scrubbed", and he too has never lied to me before.

Thanks to, um, "someone."

Okay, Okay, I'll Stop Being Such a Defeatist Ninny: Blue Devils tells me to chill, too: "As I said earlier, don't pull an "Andrew." Bush will stay take over 51% of the popular vote and at least 285 EC votes."

He notes that Drudge has now changed his headline, and suggests that the MSM-DNC continuum deliberately let out these misleading numbers to depress Republican voting.

Sounds plausible to me.

Hey-- seems to me they called Florida for Kerry at 7:50 last time around, too.

And Hugh Hewitt Too: A post with a big, friendly "Don't Panic" on the cover. Hugh Hewitt, too, has never lied to me.

On the other hand, he's never invited me on his radio show, either. So, I'm torn.

Posted by: Ace at 11:22 AM | Comments (10)
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What a stupid fucking dick.

Maybe this hysterical little ninny ought to stay away from telling others to remain emotionally calm.

I called him a douchebag a year ago, and he just keeps getting worse.

More: He's not just an idiot for telling K-Lo to "chill." Here's the exchange:

K-LO: Do not, again, do not take any exit poll resports too seriously. JUST GET OUT THE VOTE. Exit polls not always reliable, ESPECIALLY early ones. AND, this isn't over until the polls close. So please get to work while there is still time.

DO NOT get depressed. DO NOT get mad. JUST GET OUT THE VOTE.

EXCITABLE ANDY: Chill, Kathryn. The American people are speaking. Even if you might not like what they have to say. At least as far as the early buzz is concerned.

So, K-Lo exhorts people to vote, and Andrew says, "Stop that, let the American people speak."

Apparently Excitable Andy only wants of the people to speak. The others, apparently, should remain at home and not vote.

If for no other reason than this-- VOTE! Vote, little one. Vote like the wind.*

* Where's it from? The "Vote" part of the quote is changed, of course.

Posted by: Ace at 10:50 AM | Comments (18)
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