SurveyUSA put DioGuardi within one. Quinnippiac says within six, 48-42, but that confirms it's close, and easily winnable.

And this is just a week out from the primary. This is the first time most people are even hearing the name Joe DioGuardi.

New York State voters approve 49 - 37 percent of the job Gillibrand is doing and give her a 43 - 32 percent favorability rating. For DioGuardi, 61 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

That's a higher approval rating than I would have thought, but I don't think it's been sufficiently publicized what a fan she is of the Ground Zero mosque, or the constitutional right to gay marriage imposed on NYS by Judge Walker.

Meanwhile... Jay Freakin' Townsend? Not bad at this point!

Democratic U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer leads his little-known Republican challenger, Jay Townsend, 54 - 38 percent.

Posted by: Ace at 07:43 AM | Comments (159)
Post contains 228 words, total size 2 kb.

...and so today, Ladies and Gentlemen, I present you your recovery:*

Enjoy.

*Yes, I know the Recovery Summer was supposed to focus on the 6 weeks starting 6/17, so it already failed.

Posted by: Geoff at 06:30 AM | Comments (96)
Post contains 46 words, total size 1 kb.

300 economists signed a letter yesterday - the kind of letter that means Paul Krugman won't be inviting them to any of his parties:

“We, the undersigned economists, write in support of extending current tax rates on income and investments in order to prevent a devastating blow to America’s fragile economic recovery,” the letter reads. “Robust economic growth is best served by a tax code that levies low and predictable rates. The promise of a tax increase in January 2011 would create significant economic distortions as individuals and businesses conserve capital or stave off hiring.”

The letter was meant, in part, to counter a statement President Obama made earlier this month during a press conference. He said economists believe extending the Bush-era tax cuts for wealthy Americans “is probably the worst way to stimulate the economy.”

I was discussing this with Andy over at The Snausages last night - he was of the addlepated impression that letting the Bush tax cuts expire wouldn't have that large an impact, especially if it was restricted to the $250K+ set. I disagree, for the following reason:
more...

Posted by: Geoff at 05:39 AM | Comments (77)
Post contains 443 words, total size 3 kb.

Brand Democrat™ from Slublog.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 05:15 AM | Comments (82)
Post contains 12 words, total size 1 kb.

"Quenchy," by George Orwell

SurveyUSA.

In the Special Election to fill the final 2 years of Hillary Rodham Clinton's term, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even, with Gillibrand's nominal 1-point lead being within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error.

Gillibrand leads in the 5 boroughs of NYC but trails elsewhere.

Men vote Republican, women vote Democrat and, in this contest, cancel each other out.

Lower-income voters break significantly Democrat. Middle-income and upper-income voters break slightly Republican.

And... Schumer's not doing so hot, either.

In New York's general election for US Senate, incumbent Democrat Chuck Schumer leads Republican Jay Townsend 54% to 33%.

The poll also confirmed a tight race between Paladino and the Idiot Nepot Cuomo -- 49-40.

Here's CAC's post on DioGuardi, with his Doomsday Map for the Democrats in the Northeast.

And DioGuardi's website.

And Chuck Paladino. Who, by the way, proposed the state exercising its right of eminent domain to declare an easement on the Ground Zero property (not seize it outright) to make it impossible to establish the mosque there. So he's got a pair (and the bit about using eminent domain to declare an easement only was pretty smarty-pants of him too).

And Jay Townsend, who's also a Tea Partier.

In case you're confused, NY state has two Senate elections this year. Chuck Schumer is up for reelection as scheduled for his 6 year term. But Gillibrand severed the middle two years of Hillary's 6 year term, and so there's a special election for the last two years.

Thanks to DavidM.

Oh: Via Ken, we might have to all get subscriptions to this.

Posted by: Ace at 07:39 PM | Comments (228)
Post contains 287 words, total size 2 kb.

Holy Effin Shit: Federal Spending Is Out of Control

You know you hear all kinds of statistics about the growth of the federal budget and deficit - sands on the beach, dollar bills to the moon, bla bla bla - but even if you care about government spending it's easy to lose track of just how fast it's been growing recently. This kind of stuff just seems perfectly designed to make your eyes glaze over.

Well get a load of this graph from the guys at Powerline and Political Calculations:

You can see that from the late 60's up until 2000 federal spending was pretty much a straight line relative to the median household income. Then jumps to a new higher growth rate around 2002 (most likely due to 9/11). But look at what happened in 2007 when the Democrats took over the House.

Ho-ly crap!

Not only did federal spending shoot up but median income actually fell. This isn't just new unsustainable growth - this is an effin death spiral where spending has become completely decoupled from people's incomes. This is the kind of graph you see in engineering when a system is heading into failure. A few more years of this and we will be in Greek bankruptcy territory.

So if you're looking for a single chart that crystallizes the current greatest danger to the US and why the Tea Party has appeared, this is it. more...

Posted by: Maetenloch at 05:10 PM | Comments (779)
Post contains 1112 words, total size 9 kb.

Ah.

I see.

Whatever you do, don't contribute to this Vietnamese bastard who thinks he can come in here and take "our" seat.

Thanks to Garbonzo for the link to his site.

BTW, I keep forgetting to link these good people. Please remind me!

Posted by: Ace at 04:55 PM | Comments (111)
Post contains 78 words, total size 1 kb.

Bitter clinger:

The Delaware Republican said he was considering the option, though he "probably" would not run. He has until Sept. 30 to make a final decision.

Last week, Castle said running a write-in campaign was "not something I intend to do at this point."

This may explain his Charlie Cristian/Liza Mulchahyan poor-me interview with TNR. He's laying the groundwork to explain why America can't survive without careerist nothings like Mike Castle.

Thanks to svand.

Advantage O'Donnell? Buzz points out that in practice this may not be such a bad thing.

Bear in mind, Castle will bleed off a hell of lot more Coons voters than O'Donnell voters. In fact, I imagine it would be something like 80/20.

That will bring Coons well under 50% (assuming that Castle gets 10-15%). And then O'Donnell can sneak in with a win at 43% or so.

Posted by: Ace at 04:01 PM | Comments (323)
Post contains 169 words, total size 1 kb.

Check out page seven -- yes, that is the chart of our very own poached-cob-logger Geoff.

A precis.

Roll Call says it's heavy on spending cuts and light on social issues.

Posted by: Ace at 02:22 PM | Comments (428)
Post contains 47 words, total size 1 kb.

I do so love that our vaunted news organizations are now subcontracting out their foreign reportage to Hamas, Hezballah, and The Taliban.

Posted by: Ace at 02:12 PM | Comments (27)
Post contains 44 words, total size 1 kb.