I'm going to try something interesting-- interacting with live people in something I've heard called "the real world."

Sounds kind of crazy, but I'll try anything once.

Once.

Posted by: Ace at 09:06 AM | Comments (167)
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Present.

Panetta told the Senate Armed Services Committee that there are about 1,000 al-Qaida insurgents in Iraq and the situation is fragile. “I believe that we should take whatever steps are necessary to make sure that we protect whatever progress we’ve made there,” he said.

Posted by: Ace at 08:57 AM | Comments (35)
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Doom. The other white meat.

Investors were dour after U.S. May import prices showed a surprise gain of 0.2%, hinting at an inflation push coming into the U.S. from abroad...

The action follows a string of weak readings on the U.S. economy that have joined with pessimism about the euro zone's debt problems and weaker global growth to drive major stock indexes lower. The mood on the trading floor was grim.

"At the moment there doesn't seem to be any place to hide," said Ted Weisberg, president of Seaport Securities. "Best-case scenario, [traders] don't know what to do. Worst case, they're simply throwing in the towel because they're frustrated. Nothing seems to work."

Nothing that's been tried seems to work, no.

Posted by: Ace at 08:15 AM | Comments (179)
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Slow day, so a little inside baseball/wild speculation stuff.

First, Mitt won the Ames Straw Poll last time and all he got for it was a T-shirt and an ass kicking by Huckabee in the actual caucus. Fool him once....

Mitt Romney's aides announced amid the Newt Gingrich campaign breakdown that he'll be skipping the Ames Straw Poll, a crucial test of organizational strength in Iowa and an event he spent a hefty $1 million on in 2007, only to lose the caucuses.

Mitt Romney's aides have done a delicate dance managing expectations about how strongly he'll play in Iowa, and the argument against competing at Ames for him is his already-high name recognition and current poll standing in the state. To lose at Ames would raise doubts about his grassroots support and create a real perception problem.

Of course the thing Iowans care about even more than Ethanol is being sucked up to every 4 years and the state GOP chair doesn't sound too happy.

Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn issued the statement below following Governor RomneyÂ’s announcement that he will not participate in the the Ames Straw Poll.

“I’ll leave it to the pundits and voters to assess the wisdom of skipping an event of tremendous importance to tens of thousands of Iowa Republicans and caucusgoers.”

“More than ever, Iowa Republicans are energized and motivated to utilize the Ames Straw Poll as a catalyst toward building a 99-county organization to deny President Obama a second term.”

Mind you, the Ames Straw Poll is so important 2 of the 5 winners have actually gone on to win the Iowa Caucus. McCain skipped it last time and he seemed to do ok in the end. Sure he didn't do well in the Caucus but let's be honest, 5 minutes after it's over, everyone forgets Iowa exists anyway for the next 3 years.

Skipping Ames does make you wonder if Mitt is really going to compete in Iowa or cede it to Pawlenty or even better from his standpoint, someone like Cain or Bachmann.

Allah asked yesterday why Mitt would stick to his Ehtanol pander if he's not going to compete in Iowa. I have a theory. In '08 Romney got killed for pandering and flipping. This year he's sticking by Ethanol, man made global warming and RomneyCare. It's almost as if he's flipped on being a flipper and now is the guy who is "standing by tough but unpopular positions". Consider it a meta-flip.

Poor Mitt, always fighting the last battle, just a split second out of rhythm with the beat of the moment. He's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't.

A related horse-race thought: Lots of folks are either excited or at least intrigued by the idea of Rick Perry entering the race. That's not surprising considering the searching for a White Knight that has gone unanswered by the likes of Mike Pence, Mitch Daniels and so far Paul Ryan, Chris Christie and Sarah Palin.

The thing is, beyond some hardcore conservative activist types, do a lot of GOP voters know anything about Perry? I gather from Texas folks he's not another W. but that will the initial impression for a lot of folks. He'll have to deal with that while making the case for himself.

So while there will be some initial excitement when/if Perry gets in the speculation will be how this impact Romney. Personally, I think it helps him. Mitt is at this early stage the front runner but he's not exactly loved. A lot of his strategy seems to rely on the idea of being the last man standing that most people can agree on. The greatest danger to him is that a clear "Not Mitt" emerges early that people can coalesce around. Perry, at least initially, will simply be another candidate to fracture the "not Mitt" base. From Romeny's perspective, the more the merrier for the longest time possible. He's got the name recognition and the money to slog it out from February to June across the country. Right now, no one else does.

Standard disclaimer: I'm not a Mitt Romeny guy, just thinking about what's going on.

Posted by: DrewM at 07:39 AM | Comments (113)
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"I'm not getting into that," the brave Dianne Feinstein vowed when asked about Weiner's overdue resignation.

And why should you. And why should you.

Meanwhile, the left media returns to its Clinton playbook. Jon Stewart, who initially informed us that if Weiner actually did this, he had "to go," now puts the clown nose back on and tells us all this is just sooo silly.

He demonstrates to use there are "more important" stories to cover, by spinning a wheel of stories "c***-blocked" by WeinerGate coverage, using a dildo as a pointer to stop the wheel.

Clown nose on. How droll. How take-the-piss.

He claims this having himself covered WeinerGate, always in a way that minimized it (promoting leftwing blogs for doing "journalism" by making up conspiracy claims), and also having of course covered Sarah Palin's bus tour a lot.

And of course the media too continued focusing like a laser on the Only Story That Matters, Sarah Palin. Did he similarly chide the media for that?

Oh no, of course not. That served The Narrative.

And it turns out the liberal media didn't even cover WeinerGate all that much. The media knows how to really flood the zone (in Howell Raines' words) on stories they like.

Time, Newsweek Offered Cover Stories, 15 Pages to Mark Foley in 2006; But About 160 Tiny Words on Weinergate

Right, right, right. I forgot, Mark Foley was not some kind of tawdry triviality. That was huge news, right?

And Ted Haggerty. Also huge news, right?

Anthony Weiner? How silly. Why should we waste our time on such rot.

By the way: Does the left realize why this continues to be a story?

In a perfect world, this would have been a three day story, day one, the news, day two, the aftermath, day three, the "lessons learned."

But it's not that, because Weiner, and the left which protects and enables him, continue to dispute clearly-demonstrable truths and insist that nothing at all happened here, indulging one conspiracy theory after another to exonerate their precious puffed-up bantam of partisan outrage.

We'd like to move past this, Jon. Honestly, I have repeatedly promised my readers I'd get off our current "all dick" format. I'd like to keep that promise.

But I can't, because assholes like you continue insisting that Reality is other than it actually is.

And of course Howard Kurtz, who seems to get his news from Daily Kos Diarists but will not confirm or deny this, pronounced the whole thing "faked" to the "twerps" asking him why there was no coverage. Kurtz habit is to get stories 100% wrong, and then, when called in to write the piece on the media's judgment on stories, give them an A and note how "obvious" these stories were, even as he was denying there was anything to them.

And Howard Kurtz is of course joining Stewart in claiming the media is "out of control" in overcovering this story.

Like they "overcovered" the Edwards story, I suppose.

But not like how they gave Ted Haggerty and Mark Foley the perfect sweet spot amount of coverage.

Most of MSNBC's hosts -- with the notable exception of Ed Shultz, and the partial exception of Chris Matthews, who was skeptical of Weiner's initial denials but now seems convinced he's come completely clean -- are on a campaign of minimziation.

See, especially, Rachel Maddow, who insists there's nothing to see here and it's all a laugh.

And remember, she's the smart, reasonable, sweet-as-sugar hostest that even conservatives could watch because she's so damn careful and factual. That is, when she's not using her show to zealously promote every ludicrous #Hacked! theory the fever-swamps of the sinestrosphere could dream up.

But let's take her judgment, that this is all so silly.

I mean, I'm sure she'll be right one of these times.

Won't she?

And Speaking of Mark Foley: Asked for comment on Weiner, he said the "uniqueness" of the Internet "traps" people like this.

Of course, that's his excuse, too.

Posted by: Ace at 07:11 AM | Comments (128)
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So says outgoing Secretary of Defense Robert Gates.

“The blunt reality is that there will be dwindling appetite and patience in the U.S. Congress, and in the American body politic writ large, to expend increasingly precious funds on behalf of nations that are apparently unwilling to devote the necessary resources . . . to be serious and capable partners in their own defense,” he said in an address to a think tank in Brussels.

...“Future U.S. political leaders, those for whom the Cold War was not the formative experience that it was for me, may not consider the return on America’s investment in NATO worth the cost,” he said.

Ah, the beauty of retirement and the freedom to say what you are really thinking.

This isn't some theoretical situation either. We need to look no further than what's going on in Libya right now.

Lex (retired US Navy aviator) notes that NATO is well near exhausted from 3 whole months in Libya and let's just say he's less than impressed with their fortitude.

Yes, itÂ’s very stressful for seven tier one nations to bomb the sh!te out of a singular third world hellhole, day and night. On the off chance that one golden BB finds the lunatic in charge and magically transforms the place into a Jeffersonian democracy.

But at least they’ve got their social safety net. “Free” health care, and so on.

And via Galrahn, the Norwegians are pining for the fjords so they are heading home.

Norway says it will scale down its fighter jet contribution in Libya from six to four planes and withdraw completely from the NATO-led operation by Aug. 1.

Defense Minister Grete Faremo said Friday she expects understanding from NATO allies because Norway has a small air force and cannot "maintain a large fighter jet contribution during a long time.

Oh everyone understands, most of all the US pilots who are the most likely candidates to have to do even more now.

You know, Barack's Excellent North African Adventure really isn't quite the thing is it? I mean, it's not like they are going to add another verse to the Marine Corps Hymn about it or anything like that.

So, while Europe packs up what little defense capability they have (hey, you know the once mighty Royal Navy is pretty much a shell of its former self, right?), we need to keep in mind we're pretty much it when it comes to watching out for our interests and we're going to be more or less on our own in doing it. That's probably something policy makers should keep in mind as they consider cutting defense spending.

The reality is when push comes to shooting...it's always going to be a US show. You can say we shouldn't be the world's policeman and that if no one else cares, we shouldn't either. But you know who does care? China and Russia. It's not simply a question of sticking it to the lazy Euros but whether or not we will let countries who don't have our best interest at heart (to say the very least) dominate the international political and military scene for the next few decades.

The emotional response is...screw 'em, let them deal with this crap for awhile but that's simply not acceptable and everyone but Ron Paul knows that.

Meanwhile, Syria continues to slaughter their own people.

Posted by: DrewM at 06:07 AM | Comments (131)
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FRIDAYWOOOOOOO!

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:44 AM | Comments (288)
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Before the link: There are two charges possible here. Let's call them Murder and Manslaughter, because I don't actually want to talk about what the real charges are.

Murder: You know what this charge is.

The media doesn't want to talk about this charge. Let me drop my media-hating for one moment and say, "I get it." I know. It's a huge charge. The likelihood you will ever be able to prove Murder is rather low. And you'd sound overzealous even talking about it.

Plus, let's talk about the real reason: We all want this girl, who is 17 and a child and just starting her life, to be innocent here. No one is eager -- not Patterico, not me -- to write stuff that shines a girl in a bad light.

And look: Sure, he'd be crazy to do that. Crazier than even he's been acting.

So let's talk about the charge that's easier to talk about. We don't have to say anything about the girl, or think too much about uncomfortable things, or even propose a single action not already admitted by Weiner, to get to Manslaughter.

Manslaughter. That his private communications were not criminal and not sexual, but still wildly inappropriate.

What was Weiner's pattern? He tended to cruise social media looking for cute, often young women flattering him with crushes and favorable comments about his looks. If you said Weiner was hottt, and your picture showed you to be reasonably attractive, click, you got a follow.

If you said you wanted a "sexual relationship" with him, you got a follow.

If you bragged about him being "my boyfriend," you got a follow.

And, in the case of a 17 year old girl who had a bit of a habit of talking like a 30 year old sailor, if you said you "loved" him, you got a follow.

Why did that happen?

Again, let's not talk about Murder, and let's not think about it. Put the Murder charge out of mind. Let's think about lesser offenses.

Let's assume this girl was not, in fact, propositioned with anything that the police would have an interest in.

But yet still: Why did he follow her?

Because she "loved" him? Let me propose that if a 17 year old girl, with a history of some frank, Cinemax-at-night public tweets, says she "loves" a 46-year-old Congressman, under no circumstances should he follow her, and create the possibility of a private DM.

What's that? He just followed everyone who hit that #YesWeiner thing?

1, you know that's not true. He was only following 91 people in April, and only double that in May. He had 45,000 followers. Surely more hit #YesWeiner.

2, it turns out some people who hit #YesWeiner didn't get that supposedly-automatic follow.

Why didn't that guy get followed?

Oh, right. Because he's a guy. He's... somehow not interesting to Weiner. And yes it is a guy; I have clipped his name. No pretty picture; no flirty banter. Just hit #YesWeiner, as he was told, but didn't get a follow.

The magic words were not #YesWeiner.

The magic words were hott, sexual relations, my boyfriend, and love. Coming from an attractive, usually young, girl.

So why did he follow a girl that he should never in a thousand years have even been acknowledging?

Let me quote Alec Baldwin's disastrous defense of Weiner. I think he does actually offer a good point -- at least, a good one for the Manslaughter charge. I don't think we need to strain our minds for the other charge.

My thought on Weiner is that he is a very busy man. Like most, although not all, politicians, he probably spends a great deal of time going to meetings, raising campaign funds and seizing upon every opportunity to remind people of how great he is as a public servant and a human being. It's exhausting. He exists under a constant pressure cooker of self-analysis and public appraisal. Like other politicians, he needs something to take the edge off. For some people, regardless of occupation, that could mean booze, drugs, gambling, food or shopping. For high functioning men like Weiner and other officials who have lived through such scandals, who are constantly on the go, that leaves one tried and true source of a reliable high. The affirmation that comes when someone lets you know they want to sleep with you. Or even cyber-sleep with you.

That is an exilerating feeling. Alec Baldwin isn't lying. It's a good question whether it's the First Sex that's actually good, or it's the incredible excitement, the buzz, that comes in anticipation of the First Sex. Christmas, or Christmas Eve?

From Anthony Weiner's embarrassing declaration in that Cosmo interview, we know he's a bit of a love-junkie, chasing that high. As he said, he wanted to be "sucked into the throes of love," and you can tell he means it, because that makes no damn sense. So he means it.

And so here's a 17 year old. Likes to talk about sex publicly on Twitter. Pretty cute. Kind of girl you'd like if you were yourself 17 years old, and not a particularly handsome sort of 17 year old, but an awkward, skinny funny-looking kind of guy. Girl that that awkward, skinny, funny-looking 17 year old never could have gotten.

But now she says she "loves" him. And he does enjoy the validation of infatuated women.

Who doesn't?

But she's not a woman. She's a 17 year old girl. She is, for legal purposes, a child.

In the Manslaughter theory, he never says anything legally actionable in his private communications with her -- and yes, he seems to have had them. Rather, he just enjoys the crush-vibes he gets from her, flattered that a pretty young thing could be in "love" with a still-not-confident-and-mature boy-man like him.

Sure, he deflects away her serious protestations of love, but he doesn't say anything legally actionable. He just... enjoys the flattery of a pretty 17 year old who's in love with him.

Perfectly innocent.

Except it's not innocent. It's not innocent.

Because there is no one reading this right now who, if I were to suggest a similar scenario with an adult just seeking out their daughter's private attention, doing nothing actually illegal but just enjoying the fact the girl had a major league crush on him... well, there would be problems. Real problems.

You don't have to prove someone's a criminal to know he's a creep.

Why is Anthony Weiner having private communications with underage girls clearly infatuated with him at all?

Let's assume it's not Murder. Let's assume he deflected any of these lovesick girl's stronger declarations of affections.

Why was he contacting them?

To talk politics? To talk shop? To ask a 17 year old girl, "What do you think we should do to back the Republicans off their debt-limit no-negotiation stance"?

Or to engage in some creepy, weird indulgence in the crush-vibes of that girl?

There's no crime in the Manslaughter theory, but there is serious offense.

So that's my theory.

My theory is that it's Manslaughter because I don't want to think about it being anything more.

But read the evidence yourself.

Yes, he did indeed DM her, unless it's a coincidence that she referred to him as "cape and tights" just like he referred to himself as putting on the "cape and tights" in a chat with the Blackjack Dealer.

Sure, that could be a coincidence. If you still believe in "coincidence" in this matter, and if you still do, you haven't been paying attention.

And yes... she sure seems to indicate a little private mutual admiration society was going on behind the scenes.

You don't have to think something criminal happened here to say that a 46 year old man should not be seeking this type of "frivolity" and romantic validation from a starstruck 17 year old girl.

Just perfectly innocent. A married 46 year old Congressman private messaging a smitten, hero-worshipping, bad-girl-talking 17 year old girl who "loved" him.

What could be more innocent than that?

Posted by: Ace at 10:30 PM | Comments (250)
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First of all, the wildfires are only five percent contained. That's out of control. But it's progress -- earlier in the day, they were at 0 percent.

With a bit of a respite from high winds, fire crews on Thursday afternoon were looking to slow the spread of the gigantic Wallow Fire which has burned 386,000 acres.

Officials reported that 5 percent containment on the fire, the first time a figure has been achieved.

...

Fire officials, however, said Thursday afternoon that fire destroyed 22 homes lost, damaged 5 others, as well as burned 24 other structures and a vehicle. Initial reports in the morning indicated only six structures were burned.

Dramatic pictures are collected at The Atlantic.

The one below isn't as dramatic as others... except it looks like a cabin on Mars.
more...

Posted by: Ace at 07:53 PM | Comments (36)
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A History of Oil Prices

And based on the chart oil hasn't been this expensive since 1979 and the 1860's. Neither one of which were very good times for America.

Celebrity Mug Shots

Before they were famous but after they were booked and fingerprinted.

Posted by: Maetenloch at 06:01 PM | Comments (700)
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