To talk about the race -- and race.

As she was race-baited within inches of her life for supporting Romney.

I won't watch it because it's Piers Morgan, but I'm sure there will be some clips on TheRightScoop.

Sneaking This Stink-Bomb In Here: CNN's new post-debate Ohio poll has Obama up 51-47% with likely voters. Romney leads men with +14, but Obama swamps him with women with +22.

Huge.

I am really starting to wonder if Ohio shouldn't be reduced in priority, and if Michigan and Pennsylvania aren't better prospects.

Posted by: Ace at 12:01 PM | Comments (137)
Post contains 106 words, total size 1 kb.

What?

I thought you said that in a race in which polls show Romney tied or ahead, he still only had a 25% to win -- Obama still at 75% -- based on your Secret Forecasting Model, but you couldn't have said that. You could not have possibly said the last three days of polling had moved Romney up from 21.6% to 25.2%.

Because that would be insane.

But it sure looks like that's what you said.

Mitt Romney gained further ground in the FiveThirtyEight forecast on Monday, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing to 25.2 percent from 21.6 percent on Sunday.

The change represents a continuation of the recent trend: Mr. RomneyÂ’s chances were down to just 13.9 percent immediately in advance of last weekÂ’s debate in Denver. He has nearly doubled his chances since then.

But the gains that he made on Monday in particular were all because of a single poll.

???

Incidentally, he discounted Romney's two point lead in the Gallup poll, stating he didn't find it "newsy."

Then he's got some problems with this so-called Pew poll:

There are two smarter questions to ask about the Pew poll. First, is it really likely that Mr. Romney leads the race by 4 points right now? The consensus of the evidence, particularly the national tracking polls, would suggest otherwise. Instead, the forecast modelÂ’s conclusion is that the whole of the data is still consistent with a very narrow lead for Mr. Obama, albeit one that is considerably diminished since Denver.

It might be granted that the situation is more ambiguous than usual right now. But our forecast model looks at literally all of the polls; it estimates Mr. RomneyÂ’s post-debate bounce as being 2.5 percentage points, not quite enough to erase Mr. ObamaÂ’s pre-debate advantage.

He's now upped that to a 3.7% bounce, I think.

Anyway, John Nolte read this piece and also thought it was ever-so-slightly lunatic.

And it doesnÂ’t matter that today Nate Silver jumped the shark with his ridiculous 25.2% prediction of a Romney victory. Because Silver doesnÂ’t exist in order to give anyone intelligent analysis. He's there to make Obama boosterism look intelligent and thoughtful and fact-based, no matter how ridiculous and counter-intuitive and fantastic the end result.

And yet, people take Nate Silver seriously and still will even after today. Part of it is willful ignorance; part of it is out of necessity to boost Obama; and part of it are those dumb enough to still be impressed by the mantle of the New York Times.

It's like the Global Warming "models" -- they discount actual data which does not agree with their model. The Pew poll didn't fit the model, so it's plainly incorrect.

After I saw this lunacy from Silver on Twitter last night, I began parodying him as 5ive3irty8ight, and Twitchy was kind enough to compile my jokes into a readable article. Here are a few of them:

Discounting certain polls as incompatible with my model, and adding in the Finnageler's Constant, I have Obama with 143% chance to win Ohio.

A 143% chance of winning Ohio means that there will be a "spillover" effect into neighboring states like Michigan and Iowa.

Adding this "spillover" effect into the mix, Obama leads comfortably in Michigan, 165% to Romney's -65%. Similar trends appear in IA.

According to my forecasting model, there is a 92.33% chance that Ann Romney will make a pass at Barack Obama at some point.

My model suggests that not only will Ann Romney throw herself at President Obama, but there is a 74.44% chance Paul Ryan will do likewise.

My model suggests an 86.14% chance that Obama will "break" Mitt Romney in mind, body, and spirit, leaving him a gibbering lunatic

My model foresees an 81.89% chance that Mitt Romney will be a homeless bum by October 20th, wearing nothing but scraps and dog urine

There is still a 42.93% chance that Barack Obama will reveal that he is, in fact, The Batman. It is unclear how this may affect the race.

Gaming out various Obama-Is-The-Batman scenarios, I see this playing especially strong in post-industrial states, like Michigan.

Incidentally, the Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls finally puts Romney barely ahead. There's still an ancient CNN poll, pre-debate, pulling Obama up a bit.

Posted by: Ace at 11:17 AM | Comments (282)
Post contains 793 words, total size 5 kb.

This isn't a re-post. It's a recontextualization.

First, some context. From @jeffemmanuel, an old quote from Obama:

“I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters. I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m gonna think I’m a better political director than my political director.”

Next, from @rdbrewer4, his favorite psychological disorder, the Dunning-Kruger effect:

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes.[1]

Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. As Kruger and Dunning conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others"

Or, in simpler terms: The competent understand their weaknesses and can also recognize the superiority of others (in areas where they are superior). Competent people actually rate themselves as less competent than they actually are.

On the other hand, incompetents tend to rate their competency much, much higher than reality. Because they're so incompetent they don't even know what competence, let alone expertise, looks like. And they can't even spot it when it's right in front of their faces, demonstrated by someone else.

And as I've noted a few times, Obama once said this to Newsweek:

"You know, I actually believe my own bullshit."

Those three completely unrelated points out of the way, Obama thought he beat Romney, via @slublog:

When President Barack Obama stepped off the stage in Denver last week the 60 million Americans watching his debate against Mitt Romney already knew it had been a disaster for him.

But what nobody knew, until now, was that Obama believed he had actually won.

In an extraordinary insight into the events leading up to the 90 minute showdown which changed the face of the election, a Democrat close to the Obama campaign today reveals that the President also did not take his debate preparation seriously, ignored the advice of senior aides and ignored one-liners that had been prepared to wound Romney.

In retrospect, the one-liners wouldn't have worked -- they would have seemed desperate and trivial-- but the important stuff is his blowing off his homework, and then believing he'd actually won.

The Democrat said that Obama's inner circle was dismayed at the 'disaster' and that he believed the central problem was that the President was so disdainful of Romney that he didn't believe he needed to engage with him.

'President Obama made it clear he wanted to be doing anything else - anything - but debate prep,' the Democrat said. 'He kept breaking off whenever he got the opportunity and never really focused on the event.

The Democrat, who is aligned with the Obama campaign and has been an unofficial adviser on occasions, said that David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist, was stunned that the President left the stage feeling that he had won the debate.

Extraordinary. As Monty Python said of one of the Twits of the Year, "He has no idea when he's losing. He also has no idea when he's winning. He has no type of sensory awareness whatsoever." Or words to that effect.

Speaking of cognitive impairments, via @iowahawkblog: Obama now says he can only win if his supporters become obsessed.

Which I think is right.

I very much intend to win this election,” Obama told donors in San Francisco Monday night. “But we’re only going to do it if everybody is almost obsessive for the next 29 days.”

Meanwhile, Romney projected confidence, not psychosis:

Romney stood in a driving rain in Newport News, Va., his wet hair sticking to the side of his face, to join the kinds of die-hard supporters he needs for victory. “People wonder why it is I’m so confident we’re going to win,” he told them. “I’m confident because I see you here on a day like this. This is unbelievable.”

Oops: John E. covered this a few posts down. I missed it, as it's Thunderdome.

Still, I think this adds something.

Look, I spent 20 minutes on this bitch. I cleared a couple of tabs I had open for a couple of hours. I'm not just putting it into draft.

No way, Meatball. No way.

Posted by: Ace at 10:45 AM | Comments (357)
Post contains 782 words, total size 6 kb.

ANOTHER ONE.

RCP average ticking further for Romney.
Talking Point's Memo is even more generous, giving him a 2.8% lead over the President.

In our resident troll Greg's own words, "[today] will be the big day. Obama should see his numbers improve with the jobs numbers, Romney's bounce will be fading."

Today is the day, Greg.

For you to swallow.

Bonus- party ID on that? D+8. Romney carrying indies and his own party solidly.

Posted by: CAC at 10:23 AM | Comments (167)
Post contains 88 words, total size 1 kb.

Video at the Washington Examiner contrasts Obama's once-lofty rhetoric to his current Viciousness of Tiny Disputes strategy.

Obama's running a cable-only snarky ad featuring Big Bird-- as Chuck Todd notes, not actually playing it on TV in swing states, just hoping for some free media airings -- but the Sesame Street people have asked them to take it down. Stressing they are "non-partisan."

Here's what it says:

begins with a narrator invoking convicted "gluttons of greed" such as Bernie Madoff and Kenneth Lay before cheekily saying only "one man has the guts" to speak the name of "evil genius who towered over" them: Big Bird. The ad continues with clips of Romney saying "Big Bird," followed by a clip of Big Bird saying, "It's me, Big Bird."

"Big, yellow, a menace to our economy," the ad jokingly continues. "Mitt Romney knows it's not Wall Street you have to worry about, it's Sesame Street."

"Mitt Romney, taking on our enemies no matter where they nest."

The RNC is hitting Obama back on this -- noting that he has recently mentioned Big Bird 8 times and Elmo 5 times, but has mentioned Libya zero times and the economy zero times as well.

Via Hot Air, they've also entered the Sesame Street derby.

This gets at Obama's problem. There is an old phrase about "The man for the moment" or "the man meeting the moment."

This moment is not about Big Bird. This moment is about very serious things indeed, our nation's future, our Constitution, our once and future dream of being a prosperous, successful nation.

Romney landed serious blows on Obama about serious things, and he's coming back with some funny -- but utterly trivial -- jazz about Big Bird.

This is not the man meeting the moment. This is the man running from the moment. This is a man pretending he doesn't even see the moment or, worse yet, actually not realizing the importance of this moment.

Posted by: Ace at 10:01 AM | Comments (201)
Post contains 364 words, total size 3 kb.

Just a stunning lack of self-awareness.

When President Barack Obama stepped off the stage in Denver last week the 60 million Americans watching his debate against Mitt Romney already knew it had been a disaster for him.

But what nobody knew, until now, was that Obama believed he had actually won.

In an extraordinary insight into the events leading up to the 90 minute showdown which changed the face of the election, a Democrat close to the Obama campaign today reveals that the President also did not take his debate preparation seriously, ignored the advice of senior aides and ignored one-liners that had been prepared to wound Romney.

Posted by: JohnE. at 09:55 AM | Comments (76)
Post contains 141 words, total size 1 kb.

I had just put this up, expecting him to begin his ascent, to then jump 23 miles.

But it looks like winds are scrapping the mission.

Background here:

xtreme athlete Felix Baumgartner made final preparations Tuesday for a death-defying, 23-mile free fall into the southeastern New Mexico desert, hoping to become the first skydiver to break the sound barrier.

The planned early morning launch had been delayed by high winds. But shortly before 11 a.m. MDT, the 43-year-old former military parachutist from Austria entered his capsule and crews were expected to begin the hour-long process of filling the 55-story, ultra-thin and easy-to-tear helium balloon that was to take him into the stratosphere for the jump.

So, this post was a misfire. Just as I was putting it up, they began readying him to exit the capsule.

more...

Posted by: Ace at 09:48 AM | Comments (90)
Post contains 152 words, total size 1 kb.

Go look at realclearpolitics.com right now. This dovetails with Ace's earlier post about RCP contributor Sean Trende's Obama V Gravity theory, and his efforts to fight losing in the polls.

Well the day of the flip has come. It may not last, but it is oh-so-good to see. Before Ace shoves my face in the dirt again...because he's fat.

Switch the graph to seven days, and enjoy yourselves.

Posted by: CAC at 09:40 AM | Comments (83)
Post contains 82 words, total size 1 kb.

This was that ARG poll I already mentioned, but since it's apparently Thunderdome here, let's dig into those numbers a bit.

Here's the ARG sample:

Democrats (42%)

Republicans (33%)

Independents (25%)

The poll also shows Romney is also winning Independents by a full 20 points, 57-37%.

Romney's winning men by four points, 50-46%, and only losing women by three, 48-45%.

But Romney's only up one?

Not likely.

Posted by: Ace at 09:30 AM | Comments (141)
Post contains 95 words, total size 1 kb.

The hits keep coming. Poll to be released from Rasmussen.
I wonder what New Hampshire looks like now.

Or dare I say...New Jersey

updated: race with leaners. without leaners, Obama 49% Romney 45%; same poll finds McMahon behind Murphy by 5%

Posted by: CAC at 09:21 AM | Comments (66)
Post contains 51 words, total size 1 kb.