Foundation and Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman says in this Guardian piece that he "grew up wanting to be Hari Seldon, using my understanding of the mathematics of human behaviour to save civilisation." For those of you who have read one or more of the books in Isaac Asimov's Foundation series, this makes a lot of sense.

I remember feeling the same way after reading Asimov's Foundation series. But then later I came to understand how complex (and even random) human behavior can be and how the mathematics of even deterministic systems often preclude meaningful long-term predictions. So Asimov-style psychohistory will probably always be science-fiction fantasy.

But as WRM points out Krugman has not only given up on the idea of psychohistory itself but today is now playing the role of Seldon's imperial enemies:

But there is an irony in Krugman's claim to have been inspired by Hari Seldon to take up social science: In his column in the NYT, he often comes off not so much like Seldon but like one of the Galactic Empire's elites, mistrustful of the Hari Seldons out there predicting the collapse of the "empire"-or, that is, the blue model.

In "The Psychohistorians," the head of the imperial committee charged with prosecuting Seldon reaches an important decision. This politician intuitively understands that Seldon's theory of imperial decay is right, but as a card-carrying member of the elite he can't just let Seldon off the hook for his dangerous ideas. So he splits the difference: he reduces the sentence for Seldon and his followers from death or imprisonment to exile to the galactic hinterland of Terminus, where they can work out the plan to save civilization in peace.

That's pretty much what the blue intellectual establishment does today: it doesn't silence freethinkers but it pushes them out to the fringes.

[These are actually the old covers for the series but since my copies were hand-me-downs from my father they're the only ones I ever knew]

Posted by: Maetenloch at 05:23 PM | Comments (639)
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Rest In Peace.

A U.S. official says retired Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf, who commanded the U.S.-led international coalition that drove Saddam Hussein's forces out of Kuwait in 1991, has died. He was 78.

The official tells The Associated Press that Schwarzkopf died Thursday in Tampa, Fla. The official wasn't authorized to release the information publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

President George H.W. Bush, who was President during the first Gulf War (and is in ICU himself at the moment), well, his office any way, released a statement.

"Barbara and I mourn the loss of a true American patriot and one of the great military leaders of his generation. A distinguished member of that Long Gray Line hailing from West Point, General Norm Schwarzkopf, to me, epitomized the 'duty, service, country' creed that has defended our freedom and seen this great Nation through our most trying international crises. More than that, he was a good and decent man -- and a dear friend. Barbara and I send our condolences to his wife Brenda and his wonderful family."

Whenever I think of General Schwarzkopf I think of this video. more...

Posted by: DrewM at 03:32 PM | Comments (255)
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The most transparent administration in history, in the other, bad meaning of "transparent."

After years of whispers that EPA officials frequently used private email addresses, fake names and coded messages to circumvent the Freedom of Information Act, or FOIA, Jackson admitted recently to using "Richard Windsor" as her chosen nom de plume on a government email account.

That was her choice because it reminded her of a much-beloved family pet, she claimed. (At least she didn't ask how anybody could suspect a puppy lover like her of any wrongdoing.) The EPA inspector general opened an investigation into the matter because it is against federal law to use nonofficial or secret email addresses to conduct official business.

She didn't offer a reason for her resignation, despite not having a job lined up.

Maybe she just wants to spend more time with her aristocratically-named beloved family pets. I hear she has a turtle named Syngeon-Smythe.

Posted by: Ace at 02:33 PM | Comments (214)
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This is one of my few areas of expertise-- insulting people.

If you're going to insult someone, you have to tell that person he's lacking in the things he prizes. You have to think about what's important to him, the target, not what's important to you, the person casting the insult. And you have to attack the target on his own grounds, according to his own standards.

Conservatives often knock liberals for being "hoity-toity," as Steyn knocks Morgan here. But "hoity-toity" to them is a compliment because they take that to mean "elevated, educated, elitist, snobbish but rightfully so." All the things, in short, that they prize as virtues to be cultivated.

“It’s not very difficult, this,” Steyn continued. “How much longer are Americans going to have to put up with some snooty, hoity-toity foreigner coming on the airwaves and telling them everything that’s wrong with their country? Why should Americans have to put up with that? It’s completely ridiculous. President [George W.] Bush used to talk about the jobs Americans can’t do, why do we need to bring in some snooty foreigner with some annoying accent to just go on and tell Americans everything. Can’t Americans point out what’s wrong with their country on their own? Has it come to this — that we’ve got to import a special worker class to tell you Americans everything that sucks about America? That’s now a job for foreigners? This is ridiculous.”

I agree with that last bit. I just think to get under Piers Morgan's skin you don't tell him he's "snooty" -- he aspires to be snooty. You tell him he's a shallow-thinking tabloid clown who's mistaken himself for an intellectual, and someone that CNN only hired due to its own deep intellectual and cultural insecurity. He's Jerry Springer with upper-middle-class English accent, but not particularly articulate.

This guy's a tabloid wanker, but seems to think that by moving his stale act from The Mirror to CNN he's become a sharpie like Chris Hitchens.

Nope. Still just the headline-chasing parvenu who wiretapped phones and faked pictures of war crimes.

On the first page of the article, he notes that the left has gone so bananas that they've now made an upper-middle-class English fop a protected minority.

Posted by: Ace at 01:41 PM | Comments (140)
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He's taking us over the cliff -- it's his plan -- so I assume this is a poisoned pawn.

A Republican senator said Obama told Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, that the presidentÂ’s plan would arrive on Thursday, and a Senate Democratic leadership member also said that was the approach being taken. Both sources spoke on condition of not being identified further.

The move would answer McConnell’s call for the president or Senate Democrats to make the first move in the political standoff over how to prevent or soften automatic tax hikes and spending cuts of the fiscal cliff set to take effect in the new year — just five days away…

I have to tell you, one really great thing about taking off when I did was that I didn't have to cover all this negotiation stuff. I am not a negotiator and have no grasp of what constitutes a good negotiation plan (only recently did I even learn of what "BATNA" was, from a coblogger, Maet I think), and so cannot evaluate this or that maneuver.

I think most people are in the same boat, and so offer up the same suggestion most of the time -- "Tell them to die in a fire! Let it burn! Remain strong!" -- and that's fine and all but the twentieth time one writes it it loses all meaning (at least whatever meaning it had).

I assume we're going to give in, as we usually do, so I'm not sure what point there is of pretending otherwise.

Posted by: Ace at 12:39 PM | Comments (200)
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First I thought this would probably be some kind of niche hippy-dippy outfit, but the company turns out to be the biggest tomato processor in the world, processing 40% of California's processed-tomato crop. (That is, tomatoes not bound for sale as whole tomatoes but as sauce or salsa or whatever.)

It's a pretty interesting approach to management which seems to work.

Employees decide how their skill sets can best help Morning Star succeed and then develop their own lists of roles and responsibilities in collaboration with their colleagues. If Morning Star employees want to purchase new equipment, they don't ask managers for permission. Rather, they discuss potential purchases with colleagues who will be affected by the purchase and, if others with expertise support the decision, they simply buy what they need. There is no R&D department at Morning Star. There are, however, strong incentives for every employee to innovate. Workers who successfully innovate don't receive new titles. They earn the respect of their colleagues in addition to financial compensation.

Some of this sounds like exaggeration: Obviously there are some bosses. Someone, after all, looks at your productivity and decides to give you a raise (or fire you).

Still, interesting.

more...

Posted by: Ace at 12:23 PM | Comments (59)
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Anything bad that happens under Obama's watch is beyond his control. He has no power over the economy -- its dire health is attributable to ATM machines, Japanese earthquakes, and the NRA's promotion of murdering children.

Of course, whenever there's a speck of positive economic news, that is due to Obama's mastery of the levers and gears of production.

Fifth year straight of this.

U.S. holiday retail sales this year were the weakest since 2008, when the nation was in a deep recession. In 2012, the shopping season was disrupted by bad weather and consumers' rising uncertainty about the economy.

...

In 2008, sales declined by between 2 percent and 4 percent as the financial crisis that crested that fall dragged the economy into recession. Last year, by contrast, retail sales in November and December rose between 4 percent and 5 percent, according to ShopperTrak, a separate market research firm. A 4 percent increase is considered a healthy season.

Shoppers were buffeted this year by a string of events that made them less likely to spend: Superstorm Sandy and other bad weather, the distraction of the presidential election and grief about the massacre of schoolchildren in Newtown, Connecticut.

Much, much later the article mentions another possibility -- the coming financial cliff and people's fear of the next dip in the endless recession.

Thanks to an Open Blogger, who posted this in the sidebar.

Posted by: Ace at 11:14 AM | Comments (227)
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No one has anything positive to say about Chuck Hagel -- except to put in a good word for his antisemtism.

Hagel's Defenders: The Best Thing We Can Say About Chuck Hagel Is That He Is Admirably Unburdened By Affection For Jews.

And Tom Friedman: The Awesome Thing About Chuck Hagel Is His Zealous, Unflinching Antisemitism.

Second look at Hamas? Sure, why not.

Posted by: Ace at 10:47 AM | Comments (129)
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The De Havilland Mosquito was a British aircraft used in many roles during World War II. I guess we would call it a fighter-bomber, but the Brits used it for pretty much everything. Here is one of the last airworthy Mosquitoes doing its stuff. more...

Posted by: Open Blogger at 12:01 PM | Comments (63)
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Hm.

Re. Piers Morgan deportation rage: the blood-bonding of lynching. Check out those photos of Southern lynch mobs, crucified Negroes.

No lynch mob has ever thought it was evil, or even tragically misguided. All believe they are acting morally–to uphold Order & Goodness.—

Why the two are precisely alike, in all details.

Ms. Oates also clarified her previous Twitter statement that NRA members should get shot more, and thus they'd become sympathetic to her gun-ban desires. Her clarification was that she wasn't joking, and that she intended it seriously.

So there's that.

I suppose the sour brokedown crone should at least be given a Gold Star for not retreating to the dishonest "I meant it ironically" defense.

Meanwhile, Gallup finds that opposition to a handgun ban has it an all-time high.

Posted by: Ace at 09:41 AM | Comments (304)
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