December 04, 2009

The state of ClimateGate today, Dec 4 2009. [krak]
— Open Blog

(A series of daily-ish roundups of the day's Climate news and commentary.)

This is by no means a comprehensive list. The stories come from a variety of sources, and I highly recommend exploring the linked sites for more breaking news.

Today's update is brought to you by the Paul Anka of the tree world:

Call me Mr. Anka

Also brought to you by the Moron eco-comment of the day (as judged by me, a moron):

I'd find this global warming a lot more convincing if it weren't snowing outside my window. During the first week of December. In Houston. For the first time since Tambura 1815, as far as anyone knows. - Zimriel

On to the day's news, after the break:
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Posted by: Open Blog at 12:02 PM | Comments (171)
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Doinnnnggg! CNN: Obama Underwater, 48 Approve, 50% Disapprove
— Ace

With... adults. The most liberal Democrat friendly sample there is.

Here's another finding: The public likes the idea of pulling troops out of Afghanistan, but they seem to get what a bad idea it is to announce a bug-out date: more...

Posted by: Ace at 10:53 AM | Comments (142)
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Palin's Statement on the Birth Certificate is Fine... And Sorta Empty. Which is Feature, Not a Bug.
— Ace

If you care, what she said pretty much tracks with my own statements: No, I don't believe he was born in Kenya, no, I don't believe there is some massive conspiracy, but yes, people have a right to know these things for a fact and not a belief, and yes, he's being sketchy about this for whatever reason, and yes, people have the right to ask questions and demand proof.

I think it's an empty thing to ask for proof since the thing is already well-proven. But no one else has to accept my personal evidentiary standard. And given that this mystery (well, not-really-a-mystery) is entirely within Obama's power to solve by signing a simple form requesting that Hawaii release his long form, I think it's fair to ask him to do so.

Here is my problem with beating up on Palin for this: A lot of the people who will beat up on her are the same sort of people who say the Republican Party needs to be open to moderates, and toss moderates a rhetorical bone here and there, and stuff like that.

Which I agree with, actually.

But the deeper point they are making is that politics is not about Simon Pure purity on questions. They are advancing the idea that politics is about coalition-building, doing what is necessary to attract 51% to your flag, and that those they consider too hardcore about conservative principles are doing the party a disservice by elevating philosophical integrity and ideological coherence above the vagueries and punts often necessary to negotiate a rough consensus.

Which, again, I agree with.

So what did Palin do? Well, what she did here was toss a rhetorical bone to the 25-30% of the country which is very much interested in this birth certificate question, while not nearly embracing the theory itself. She offered, in other words, a sort of vague stab at consensus -- let's agree that these questions are fair game and punt on the more divisive question of whether the theory has any merit -- which is what what people like David Frum are always urging when it comes to appeasing moderates.

Well, look: The exact same principle applies to both moderates and conservatives. If we're supposed to overlook the frequent leftward deviations of, say, Lindsey Graham, as necessary (it is asserted) for winning an election and building a coalition, can it really be honestly contended that we must suddenly become Simon Pure on other issues?

Because that's what I think is animating this. There is a desire by some that Sarah Palin firmly reject the birth certificate theory -- and not just the theory, but deem all inquiries or suspicions as de facto illegitimate -- and thus demonstrate her philosophical integrity and ideological coherence.

Hey, she's a politician. She's supposed to avoid making strong statements that alienate one wing of the party or the other. Guys like David Frum make their rent by beating up on other Republicans for not being open to a bit of ideological fudging and philosophical slack on some issues.

But now we're going to demand that everyone in the party adhere strongly to one side of this issue?

You mean: There's a litmus test for Republicans now? Really? Gee, every time I hear about litmus tests people like Frum freak out about an attempt to "purge" the party. But now we're suddenly in favor of them?
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Posted by: Ace at 09:24 AM | Comments (369)
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FiAF T-Shirt Contest
— LauraW

Good Morning Morons, Moronettes, disheveled lunkheads, chromosomally-enhanced dorkwads, and attorneys.

Welcome to FuckitAll Friday.


Thanks to Patty Ann.

After the last fundraiser, AndrewsDad emailed me with the preposterous notion of talking Ace into offering AOSHQ swag here on the site.

Well, we don't have any AOSHQ swag. There was a small T-shirt sale a few years back. It was a successful venture, if by 'success' you mean that six people bought shirts and Ace ended up with $14.06 and three dozen very snazzy carwash rags.

So, okay! Let's do it again! Maybe. We have yet to confront Ace with the idea. I guess it depends on what happens here today.

This will be even funner if you mutants come up with the images and slogans you'd like to see on an AOSHQ mug or tee or whatever.

Friday Photoshop + slogan contest for Ace of Spades HQ swag.

Let me know if you need me to post any graphics for you to use.

FiAF continues below the fold. more...

Posted by: LauraW at 08:12 AM | Comments (361)
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Watts & Strata question CRU "Lost Data" [krak]
— Open Blog

James (why do I keep doing that -ed) Anthony Watts asks a rather obvious question. If the raw data was really lost, why, in all those thousands of emails, is there no mention of this loss? Instead the relevent emails dealt in ways to avoid the release of said data to FOI demands.

AJ Strata questions how recent temperature analyses (1, 2) were done by the CRU using this data that was supposedly lost years earlier. My uneducated guess would be that the analysis was done using the scrubbed "value-added" data, but he thinks raw data must have been used.

The easy answer is that, as in so many other areas, CRU scientists were just winging it with OOMA * numbers that reinforced their theories instead of worrying about what the raw data did or didn't tell them, and regardless of whether the data was even available.

But if OOMA numbers weren't used, and the raw data did exist after it was claimed to be lost, "Robin" Jones and his Merry Men ** have left another opening for criminal inquiry into their actions vis-a-vis their response to the FOI requests.

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Posted by: Open Blog at 06:18 AM | Comments (128)
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Sadly Obligatory: Yes, Palin Made a Statement About "Stupid Conspiracies" Trig Trutherism...and Birtherism
— Gabriel Malor

Just so she's clear:

Voters have every right to ask candidates for information if they so choose. I’ve pointed out that it was seemingly fair game during the 2008 election for many on the left to badger my doctor and lawyer for proof that Trig is in fact my child. Conspiracy-minded reporters and voters had a right to ask... which they have repeatedly. But at no point – not during the campaign, and not during recent interviews – have I asked the president to produce his birth certificate or suggested that he was not born in the United States.

A mixed message. Voters have every right to ask, but she has not asked and she has not suggested he was born elsewhere. Well, okay. Dare I wonder that she hasn't asked because it is a "stupid conspiracy?"

Later: For reasons passing understanding, some of the commenters accuse me of painting Palin as a birther. Except...I quoted her when she said she never suggested that the President was not born in the United States and that she called it a stupid conspiracy comparable to Trig Trutherism.

So, yeah. And they say I'm the one with reading comprehension issues...

UPDATE: (Russ from Winterset): As the official AoSHQ Palin Apologist, I hereby certify this post to be "Palin Friendly". Carry on.

Ah, I Understand the Confusion Now [Gabe]: Xombozo asks "Ok Gabe, then what's the point of the post? If you agree she's saying Birthers are nuts then what problem do you have with what she said?"

I don't have a problem with what she said. The point of this post is that many were discussing it in the comments to other posts. It is, therefore, newsworthy enough to have its own post, though I did resist because it's kinduva stupid deal (see headline "Sadly Obligatory").

Russ is right.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 05:53 AM | Comments (199)
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Top Headline Comments 12-04-09
— Gabriel Malor

Okay, campers, rise and shine, and don't forget your booties 'cause it's cooold out there today.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 05:11 AM | Comments (68)
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December 03, 2009

Polls: Pollster.com's Aggregated Average Puts Obama Underwater: Carville's Democracy Corps Says Conservatives Make Big Gains
— Ace

On Pollster.com's poll aggregator, the disapprove line has now met the approve line. Well, pretty much.

Carville's Democracy Corps poll says that self-identified "conservatives" now comprise 45% of the electorate. Up 5% since Obama's inauguration; up 7 since the election. The gains seem to come right out of the "moderate" group.

Which would seem to mean that, yeah, the party can and should move away from RINOs in most places and towards conservatives.

Posted by: Ace at 07:31 PM | Comments (268)
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Overnight Open Thread (Mætenloch)
— Open Blog

Wow Ace has been on fire today! I hope everyone can drag themselves out of the information-overload stupor and bring a little of their B-game to the ONT.

Watch a Car do a Real Hotwheels Loop-the-loop
I was kind of surprised that the entry speed only had to be 36mph but hey it's science backed by an empirical test. Which puts it way above climate studies.

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Posted by: Open Blog at 06:00 PM | Comments (778)
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Great Article on ClimateGate from the Sunday Times (UK)
— Ace

Not a lot you haven't heard -- though the scientists now beginning to perk up and say "Wait a damn minute here" is good -- but a great recap. Puts everything into the proper chronology and goes back to the beginning of the dispute -- over the hockey stick, and why that's so very crucial. Anyone who's been a bit lost in all this until now should find themselves suitably caught up by the article's end.


I'll quote this part, just to prove I myself read it (or whatever), but do yourself a favor and skip my excerpt and just read the whole thing. Good article to email to a newcomer to all of this, too.
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Posted by: Ace at 05:34 PM | Comments (48)
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