As I mentioned yesterday, I am keenly interested in whether or not recent events represent Obama's Fallujah, or his Sadr City.

Obama's disapproval went up +1 to 51%.

Obama's highest weekly disapproval rate was 50%, but this 51% is based on a three-day rolling average, not a weekly snapshot, so those two are not directly comparable.

Obama's highest level of disapproval is 52%, something he's hit twice line the past month (and hit before last August, before the 2010 elections). So the record for the three-day track would be 53%.

Since the track of July 26-28, there have been thirteen three day averages; Obama's disapproval has been at 50% or higher for ten of those thirteen windows. (And was still in the high 40's the three times it was under 50.)

His approval also went up one point, so he's at 41%/51% and on the net no worse than yesterday.

Of course I am hoping that we finally see the long-anticipated break here.

Posted by: Ace at 10:38 AM | Comments (239)
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In today's post, as in many before, he points to the particulars of the NLRB Act and the Wagnerism-style unionism it creates/endorses/promotes.

Kaus' problem seems to be with the specifics of Wagnerism. If I have this right, Wagner-style unionism promotes workers deliberately thwarting companies' efforts to be more efficient and productive. I think Wagner-style unionism is set up so that virtually any changes made to workers' responsibilities -- say, moving a guy from job A to job B-- results in a grievance.

The unions then attempt to leverage these grievances into pecuniary concessions, so that companies tend to just give up on efficiency, because efficiency is now too expensive and hence inefficient.

Here's my question then:

What would a model trade union bill look like, then? And more importantly: Can such a model bill be passed to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the Wagner union bill, so that workers will have a choice of which type of union to pursue?

I assume we cannot overturn Wagner, so instead I ask: If there were a second option, a second pathway for would-be unionists to choose, would that be possible, or workable? And what would that look like?

For if Kaus is right that it is less unions in the abstract than Wagner-style unions in the particular that are hurting companies (and hence, perversely, union employees who are supposed to be benefited), would some alternate method of unionization help cure that?

Posted by: Ace at 09:53 AM | Comments (125)
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Thanks to Truman North in the sidebar: A bit of welcome levity.

Update: Thanks to CristyBlinky, Barney Frank farts on Rachel Maddow. Her show, I mean.

I also reposted the Al Sharpton clip. There has to be a meme here. There much be. more...

Posted by: Ace at 09:19 AM | Comments (145)
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Verum Serum has must-watch videos from England.

The first video shows a line of about eight cops retreating from rioters, who throw rocks and lengths of wood at them.

The second video contains the line: "London is going down."

The third has a young woman, who doesn't seem likely to be paying taxes, claiming she's just "getting our taxes back" by looting.

The fourth is an elderly black woman yelling at the rioters to stop what they're doing.

Via NRO, Anarchy in the UK:

Across much of London on Monday night, if someone had decided to break down your door and rape your daughter, there would have been nothing to stop them. There would have been no one to call. When I was mugged, I was on my way home from a day in Tottenham, listening to the stories of the people who had lost far more and been at far greater risk than me, burned out of their homes at 30 seconds’ notice. They called 999 too, frantically, desperately, as the riot moved closer. There were 100 police just up the road. The emergency operator could do nothing but listen to their terror. I finished my journey in a cab. Three or four times, we had to stop and skirt round hooded boys spilling into the road, our windows closed and the door lock on. If they had fancied my taxi, there would have been nothing I or the driver could have done about that, either. Even on Monday, the victims of Tottenham, black and white, were already tired of outsiders blaming racism, police brutality, or cuts. (What were they rioting about in prosperous, suburban Enfield – rising season-ticket prices?) The real reason for the rioters’ behaviour is much simpler: because they can. Forget BlackBerry Messenger. After seeing — on television — how much leeway the looters of Tottenham were allowed, every criminal and every excitement-seeking child in London took note. By the next day, critical mass had been achieved. Disorder had erupted on a scale much more difficult to suppress than the original outbreak.

OF course. They police were told essentially to let them riot, and so they rioted still further.

At the NRO link, those forming vigilance committees to protect their own damn homes and businesses are being told to stay home and not make trouble.

What?

And yet those protecting their businesses do in fact fear the government will arrest them.

"I was here with my brother and my boss waiting for them until about midnight," said 16-year-old Huseyin Beytar. "If some guy ever breaks a window in this street, all the Turkish Kurdish people come down to protect the shops. We're like a family."

"We have to do things for ourselves," said Huseyin. "We have to look after each other. If they come here tonight there will be a fight, a big fight."

"We were outside ready and expecting them," said the manager of Turkish Food Market, who asked not to be named.

"But I felt very panicky because we are not safe from either the rioters or police.

"We put all of our efforts into this shop. It took 20 years to get it like this. But we do not know about our rights.

"I'm scared that the police and the government will attack us if we defend our businesses.

"We are being squeezed between the two."

Posted by: Ace at 08:50 AM | Comments (266)
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Unbelievable.

I suppose I do believe it, but it's unbelievable. The public claims they understand we cannot rack up more trillions in unpayable debt, but resists any effort to cut spending.

Boehner's now as unpopular as Pelosi, and there's so much more.

I think most national pundits continue to be missing the boat on how possible it is that Democrats will retake control of the House next year. We find Democrats with a 7 point lead on the generic Congressional ballot this week at 47-40. After getting demolished with independent voters last year, they now hold a slight 39-36 advantage with them.

...

This poll is certainly not an outlier. We have looked at the generic ballot 11 times going back to the beginning of March and Democrats have been ahead every single time, by an average margin of about 4 points. This 7 point advantage is the largest Democrats have had and if there was an election today I'm think that they'd take back the House....

There's little doubt that Democrats are winning the fallout of the debt debate. Approval for Congressional Republicans has now plunged to a 25/65 spread. That's a 21 point decline on the margin from when they started the year at 33/52. Last year independent voters were the driving factor behind the GOP retaking the House majority. Now they give it a 20/68 approval rating.

It's early- but it looks very plausible that we could be back to Speaker Pelosi 17 months from now.

One point S&P made in its downgrade statement was that they doubted that American politics was up to the task of fixing American finance.

I think they're right. And while this is a Democrat versus Republican issue, it's mostly an ignorance versus information issue.

The public is largely ignorant and prefers to remain so. They are confronted with two unpalatable, but necessary, choices -- A. high, stagnating, wealth-diminishing European socialist tax rates, or B. reductions in the welfare state, especially to middle class and higher income earners (and yes, many oldsters are quite rich), and they insist they want C., which is a continuation of ruinous levels of spending, but no taxes that touch their own wallets, oh, and also, they want the debt reduced.

I feel like the guy in Apollo 13 who insists that that the math doesn't add up regarding the drain they can put on the battered orbiter's weak batter: "I'm not making this up, you know."

The numbers are what they are, and reality is what it is.

As I've mentioned before, the media used to be all hot for economic rationality in this area -- reform of entitlements was a position held by 90% of the media that considered themselves informed policy wonks -- but they've thrown all that out the window now that Obama and Reid and Pelosi need them to forget what they've long known.

So there is no truth being told here, by the media that supposedly exists to tell hard truths and disabuse the public of pleasant fictions. The Democrats continue to resist any cuts, and claim to the public that this is sound policy, and the media refuses to note that this is simply a lie.

Because, for once, they have to be "neutral," you see.

Bullshit? Commenters point out PPP is skewed (I sort of just assumed that as a fact already; but even deducting five points, it would still show D's ahead), and that the RCP average has Republicans at +1 (albeit before this latest PPP poll is factored in).

Well, I agree PPP is skewed and that the real numbers are closer.

But here is my problem: Why are they this close?

Something like 70% of the public is either satisfied with the level of cuts imposed already or wants, they claim, further cuts in spending.

Don't tell me that people aren't supporting the GOP because the GOP isn't cutting deeply enough. That may be true, but answer me this:

If 70% of the public wants deeper cuts, how the hell do Congressional Democrats maintain a 45% level of support?

You see the problem? The public is lying to itself.

How long will they indulge in lies and ignorance?

That is my problem. That as a nation, a large number of us seem to be not only disconnected, and not only unserious, but addicted to indulgence in fantasy.

Posted by: Ace at 08:37 AM | Comments (143)
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Toomey, Portman and Kyl.

U.S. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell Wednesday announced his appointments to the 12-member Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction tasked with reducing the deficit by $1.5 trillion more than the cuts already identified in the Budget Control Act. McConnell appointed Sens. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), and Rob Portman (R-Ohio).

...

“My main criteria for selecting members was to identify serious, constructive senators who are interested in achieving a result that helps to get our nation’s fiscal house in order,” McConnell said. “That means reforming entitlement programs that are the biggest drivers of our debt, and reforming the tax code in a way that makes us more competitive and leads to more American jobs. The goal is to achieve a result that convinces Americans and the world that we’re committed as a nation to prosperity for all our citizens.”

That's a pretty strong and serious line up (especially compared to the clowns like Murray and Kerry that Reid named). My only concern and it's not based on record is Kyl. Yeah, he's a strong as they come but...he's retiring. I'm not a fan of putting someone on this who doesn't a have a good dose of fear of what crossing the line would mean.

Here are the House picks.

Boehner has tapped House Republican Conference Chairman Jeb Hensarling (Texas), House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-Mich.) and House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Fred Upton (R-Mich.) to serve on the bipartisan panel.

No Paul Ryan? No tea party freshman? Hmmmm. (Ryan said he didn't want to be on it to focus on Budget Committee work).

GOP picks mean bad news for defense?

Posted by: DrewM at 08:02 AM | Comments (218)
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So headlines the Washington Times.

A stand by Wisconsin Republicans against a massive effort to oust them from power could reverberate across the country as the battle over union rights and the conservative revolution heads toward the 2012 presidential race.

But the left counts it as a win:

“The fact of the matter remains that, fighting on Republican turf, we have begun the work of stopping the Scott Walker agenda,” said state Democratic Party Chairman Mike Tate.

Phil Neuenfeldt, president of the Wisconsin State AFL-CIO, said voters sent a message that there is a growing movement to reclaim the middle class.

“Let’s be clear, anyway you slice it, this is an unprecedented victory,” he said.

Something to keep in mind: While they claim they were playing on Republican turf, that wasn't true in one of the districts, and the other district we lost regrettably featured an incumbent who had an affair with a 25 year old intern and then moved out of the district itself.

In addition, the left outspent us 2 to 1 on advertising, and the unions nationalized the elections, pushing hard for a coalition-of-government-dependent turnout.

They still lost. As "controversial" as Walker's program was, we only lost our two most vulnerable senators.

Next Tuesday we can try to win back one of the lost seats, as two Democrats, Wirch and Holperin, themselves stand for recall.

People say Holperin is vulnerable -- which he might be. This chart shows the vote in the various districts in the 2004 and 2008 elections.

In Holperin's district, Obama got 53% to McCain's 46%. But in 2004, Bush got 53% to Kerry's 46% (yes, an exact flip-flop).

So he's actually in a Bush district, and I can't believe his district is as Democratic as it seemed in 2008.

In addition, of course, they already lost, so there will likely be a fall-off in voter interest -- "Let's keep the score close, at least!" is not a rallying cry likely to motivate a team that's already lost.

Wirch's district is tougher, as it went for Kerry by 51%, but who knows. That's not a blow-out.

I also need to highlight this, which Drew posted last night: The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel published an op-ed beginning...

Sky isn't falling

Gov. Scott Walker's so-called tools will help at least some local governments deal with cuts in state aid. Tough choices and pain remain, but give the governor some credit.

Aug. 9, 2011 |(81) COMMENTS

So it turns out that the sky isn't going to fall on all local governments in Wisconsin. The numbers now starting to come in show that Gov. Scott Walker's "tools" for local governments apparently will help at least some of them deal with cuts in state aid imposed by the state budget.

That's contrary to the expectation and the rhetoric of critics in the spring, and it's to Walker's credit. It bears out the governor's assessment of his budget-repair bill, although we still maintain he could have reached his goals without dealing a body blow to public employee unions.

Local government officials also need to keep in mind that not all governments will share equally - Milwaukee County is one example - and that tough choices remain. And state legislators should make adjustments in any follow-on budget-repair bill to make sure that any pain is fairly shared.

But the news is good for many. The latest example is Milwaukee, where the most recent estimates show the city with a net gain of at least $11 million for its 2012 budget. That will take a slice out of the city's structural deficit, which is created by costs rising faster than revenue, and will reduce cuts that Mayor Tom Barrett and the Common Council must impose.

Although this op-ed has yesterday's date, it actually will be published today, safely after the elections.

Apparently it was posted on-line at 6:20 PM, with polls almost closed, ensuring that the truth would not make an unexpected 11th hour Han Solo like appearance in the fight.

Posted by: Ace at 07:40 AM | Comments (90)
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You can run but you'll just die tired.

Blackfive has the ISAF statement.

Coalition forces killed the Taliban insurgents involved with the recent downing of the CH-47 helicopter, with a precision airstrike in Chak district, Wardak province, yesterday.

The strike killed Taliban leader Mullah Mohibullah and the insurgent who fired the shot associated with the Aug. 6 downing of the CH-47 helicopter, which resulted in the deaths of 38 Afghan and coalition service members.

Mullah Mohibullah was a key facilitator in an insurgent attack cell led by Din Mohammad, a Taliban leader killed in a previous Special Operations mission. As a leader in MohammadÂ’s network in Tangi valley, Mohibullah had as many as 12 Taliban fighters under his command, including potential suicide bombers.

On the night of the crash, the inbound CH-47 carried Special Operations Forces intended to pursue insurgents from MohammadÂ’s network that were fleeing an engagement in which six militants had already been killed. While it has not been determined if enemy fire was the sole reason for the helicopter crash, it did take fire from several insurgent locations on its approach.

After an exhaustive manhunt, Special Operations forces located Mullah Mohibullah and the shooter after receiving multiple intelligence leads and tips from local citizens. The two men were attempting to flee the country in order to avoid capture.

The security force located and followed the insurgents to a wooded area in Chak district. After ensuring no civilians were in the area, the force called for the airstrike which resulted in the deaths of the Mullah Mohibullah, the shooter, and several of their Taliban associates.

The security force assesses no civilians were harmed during the strike.

Related enough: US drone strike in Pokehstahn kills 21.

Posted by: DrewM at 06:44 AM | Comments (172)
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Victor Davis Hanson on the paralytic western society.

We seem able to admit that massive federal and state entitlements have created a sense of dependency, a loss of self-respect and initiative, and a breakdown of the family, yet we still seem to fear that trimming the subsidies would lead to some sort of cold-turkey hyper-reaction. We assume that society is to blame for disaffected youth and therefore are hesitant to use commensurate force to quell the violence or even to make it clear that perpetrators are responsible for their own conduct. Yet at some point — when the violence reaches middle-class communities or, in serial fashion, downtown or suburban stores — we likewise assume that sufficient force will be used. Sociological exegesis will go out the window. Reality has a way of dispelling such cognitive luxuries.

The Brits are discovering the truth of Dr. Hanson's words as we speak.

The economics of riots.

Public-sector workers are slowly and painfully coming to realize that the times, they are a-changin'.

I am often accused of being overly pessimistic about our future (both financially and socially), but it's just a matter of looking at the numbers, and the attitudes and behaviors of the voters in this country. The worst-case scenario is the most likely one.

You gotta love James Galbraith -- heÂ’s an idiot in fair weather and in foul. A veritable Mount Everest made of pure stupid. This may be the best comedy bit you'll read all day.

The Japanese demographic collapse has been the talk of bond markets for almost twenty years now. Everyone keeps predicting doom for Japan has it's debt-to-GDP rises above 200%, yet somehow Japan keeps avoiding the headsman's axe. How can this happen? The answer is that the Japanese people themselves buy most Japanese debt...but Japan is greying, and all those savers are going to be drawing down their savings as they get old. When Japan has to go to the international markets to roll their debt, they are in for a world of hurt.

I've been saying it for years: Democrats will die on the entitlement hill. Harry Reid's picks for the so-called "super committee" make this abundantly clear. By picking hard-core leftist ideologues (Murray) and statist harness-bulls (Kerry), Reid is signalling that he intends no movement at all on the entitlement front. If any reforms to entitlements are to come, the GOP is going to have to force the issue. And it's not clear to me that the GOP has the will or the ability to do so.

The Euro project will fail because “Europe” is not a nation. It never has been, and it probably never will be. If political union is forced on the people by fiat, it will fail; and the denouement will be a bloody one.

Medicare vs private insurance. Predictably, medicare loses.

Fed: The economy's gonna suck for at least two more years. Embrace the suck.

The stock market recovered a lot of ground in yesterday's trading as panic-selling reversed and sheepish investors got back in.

Once again, and as usual, California screws themselves. But L.A. refuses to go quietly; the broke municipality recently approved plans for a new $1B NFL stadium. For a team they don't have yet. Budgets are for suckers!

BofA sells a bunch of shit to Fannie to go with Fannie's already-comprehensive shit-collection. And the cool thing? We get to pay for it! Yay!

UPDATE 1: Hey, it's not all DOOM up in here. The unions took a giant shot in the nuts in Wisconsin last night, so that's something to celebrate.

UPDATE 2: Spending yourself rich didn't work, after all. But...but...all the smart people said it would work!

UPDATE 3: Doubling down on zero.

This is what a central bank does when it wants to appear to do something to help the economy but has already fired most of its ammunition.

UPDATE 4: Via slublog -- Fear the Fed!
more...

Posted by: Monty at 04:35 AM | Comments (376)
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Are you or are you not hip to my jive?

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:51 AM | Comments (98)
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