August 22, 2012
— Ace Well, that's the tendentious reading of the Washington Examiner, but it does seem like a fair characterization.
Democrats said that they will feature Cecile Richards, president of the Planned Parent Action Fund, Nancy Keenan, president of the NARAL Pro-Choice America and Sandra Fluke, the Georgetown University student whose plea for federal birth control funding drew the ire--and a subsequent apology--from Rush Limbaugh.What's more, the Democrats are expanding their list of women ready to assail the GOP on women's issue, adding Maryland Sen. Barbara Mikulski and actress Eva Longoria to the list that already includes Sen. John Kerry and Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren.
Bless their hearts. (Second chart especially.) It's hard to know which way the abortion issue cuts because you'll have a majority saying they're pro-life but also a majority saying they think abortion should be legal in certain circumstances. Either way, a majority at least gesturally identifies as pro-life; this is not the political dynamite Democrats seem to believe it is.
In one of the dumbest stories I've ever read -- dumb question, dumb answer -- Paul Ryan refuses to define "forcible rape." Which is an idiotic question to ask -- everyone knows what forcible rape is. Forcible rape is distinguished from statutory rape, which is illegal and considered rape due to the youthful age of the victim, and yet is nevertheless consensual. Statutory rape is so-called because the statute defines it as rape, even though a witness would not see the characteristics of what "rape" is usually taken to be -- i.e., force, coercion.
So why is Paul Ryan badgered on the meaning of a word which has had the same definition for 150+ years? Just so the media can get video of him saying "Rape."
"Forcible rape" is a common term in law. This is not some newfangled Xtianist make-'em-up. If you google forcible rape you'll see, I don't know, 20 million hits at least, I'd guess.
And what I don't understand is why Paul Ryan doesn't just answer. I guess maybe because he doesn't want to get into line drawing, like "I might not oppose abortion in the case of forcible rape but I wouldn't in the case of statutory rape," and I guess that's because the American public is stupid and has no idea what common terms mean.
Here's an Odd Fact: As far as sex-crimes go, there's actually another category.
What if the woman actually consents, but she only consents due to fraud or trickery? There actually are such cases; for example, doctors have told women that in order to examine them they'd have to probe them with their penises (no, this really happened; there are cases in the books).
There are lots of varieties of rape-by-trickery, including slipping into a woman's bed, counting on her to mistake you for her husband. (This really happens.)
In earlier days, proffering an offer of marriage just to induce a woman to sleep with you, with no intent of actually carrying through, was also a crime of this type.
Anyway, there is actually an old common-law crime for this sort of rape, but they didn't call it rape. In the common law, until about 50 years ago, when people started realizing this sounded wrong, they called this crime "Seduction."
No, seriously. Look it up.
Frank Sinatra was charged with it:
n more modern times, Frank Sinatra was charged in New Jersey in 1938 with seduction, having enticed a woman "of good repute to engage in sexual intercourse with him upon his promise of marriage. The charges were dropped when it was discovered that the woman was already married."[6]
Anyway, apparently the media now has its stupid hat on and is going to ask Paul Ryan to define words whose meanings are quite clear, just so they can get him on tape talking about rape.
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— Ace "Bless his heart" being among my favorite obscenities, and one I only realized was an obscenity this past year.
It's the nicest-sounding f-you in the world.
In Iowa, Romney dropped the b**** h** h****.
"President Obama, bless his heart, has tried to substitute government for free people, and it has not worked.”
Now, "bl*ss h*s h**rt" is a Southern coinage, right? And it's a very stealth-condescending put-down, right? Like "He tries so hard. Bl*** h** h****."
So... You know. A week of "racism" claims. "Dog whistles."
Chris Matthews is going to eat his own face over this outrage.
Sarah Palin Deployed It... against Akin.
Then again sometimes a "bl$ss h&s h%^rt" is an actual "bless his heart."
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— Ace "No jobs created," the Washington Times reports. The contract noted that -- zero jobs created.
So what were stimulus funds doing plumping Maddow's and Olbermann's show's ad buys?
The ads touted the "Green Jobs" that aren't available.
The firm ultimately negotiated ad buys for “two approved spots” airing 14 times per week for two months on “Countdown With Keith Olbermann” and “The Rachel Maddow Show,” according to a project report, which listed the number zero under a section of the report asking how many jobs had been created through the stimulus contract.David Williams, president of the nonprofit watchdog Taxpayers Protection Alliance, called the contract “questionable” because it created no jobs and because of the placement of the ads on shows viewed as friendly to the administration’s policies.
“Hiring a PR firm does not create jobs, and this was obviously meant for selling a particular political agenda,” Mr. Williams said. “The placement really reeks of a political ad rather than a job ad, and taxpayers see through this.
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10:07 AM
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— CAC Likely Voters.
Will update as info trickles out.
I have said repeatedly that I trust Marquette over everybody else as they have been great so far calling the Badger state.
Previous poll: Romney 45% Obama 50%
Their latest poll finds (per Poll chief Charles Franklin) Ryan's selection may have increased Romney's chances in the state: Romney 46% Obama 49%
(July Pol Obama lead by 8 )
WI VOTER'S RATING OF ROMNEY'S PICK OF RYAN:
31% EXCELLENT
27% PRETTY GOOD
16% only fair
19% poor
Ryan Approval:
"MULawPoll @MULawPoll
WI view of Ryan pick is more favorable than national view (shown in Gallup), poll director Charles Franklin says. #mulawpoll"
Choice to pick Romney reflects good/poorly on Romney's decision making 55%/31%
IS RYAN QUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT?
55% YES
38% NO
MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR ROMNEY B/C OF ROMNEY?
29%/13%less
WHAT KEEPS OBAMA IN THE GAME:
+8 approval vs -10 for Romney.
WHAT HELPS ROMNEY:
Room for Republican unity (right now at 88%), expansion in Metro Milwaukee/GreenBay.
Surprising numbers for non-white vote: 41% of WI hispanics vote for Romney, 52% Obama. African-Americans: 11% Romney 89% Obama
WHAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE:
Romney is losing the GreenBay/Appleton area by <2%, flip that with some ads and stops, and beef up the WOW (Milwaukee Metro only going to him by 7% needs to beef that up). That will flip -3 to even or +
Senate matchup between Tommy Thompson and Tammy Baldwin:
Previous: Thompson 48% Baldwin 43%
NEW POLL:Thompson 50% Baldwin 41%
Moving Wisconsin Senate seat to Solid Pickup. State may tighten a bit due to the nature of the state but a widening lead with no traction for Baldwin means a win.
Waiting for D/R crosstab, PPP's R+2, Ras R+2...(very few solid independents per C.F.: 9% of the whole state...still waiting for D/R)-- MULAW: D+1, considerable shift from 4 years ago, more D than recall.
TURNOUT WILL BE CRITICAL- Per director Franklin very few persuadable voters (just like in recall)
VOTER SCHISM- supports keeping Medicare as is, yet also insists "major changes needed" to keep solvent, by same amount 55%
Other polling for WI-President:
Rasmussen Romney +1 (LV)
PublicPolicyPolling Romney +1 (LV)
CNN Obama +4 (RV sample)
**Quinnipiac poll of WI coming tomorrow as well**
Standing by my call of Wisconsin as a lean (slightly) Romney: with the apparatus on the ground and Romney clearly spending money here, Ryan's pick has made the state very reachable. Waiting for more crosstab info. Three of three polls have shown the state shifting, tomorrow would be 4 for 4 if pattern continues. This is at WORST a tossup right now. During Wisconsin recall, Marquette's FINAL poll was closer than anyone else's. Poll director (Charles Franklin) is very reputable and approachable on twitter (@pollsandvotes), follow him please and support perhaps one of the most direct and thorough pollsters in the buisness. --flashback- Obama beat McCain by 13 points, so, yeah, he's facing quite a fuckening in the Badger state right now.
Follow me on twitter @conartcritic and hashtag #AOSHQDD for polls, breakdowns and tidbits through the general election.
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09:23 AM
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Six, Seven or Eight More To Go
— andy The campaign made a stop in the crucial swing state of O-I-H-O today.

Lapdog media ridicule commences in 3 ... 2 ... never.
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09:13 AM
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— CAC DEVELOPING...
55% of Indies, 16% of Democrats
Poll from RasmussenReports...
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07:13 AM
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— Gabriel Malor Happy Wednesday.
Texas celebrated two major court victories yesterday. First, the DC Circuit ruled that the EPA exceeded its authority (translation: it was actually lawless) when it issued rules putting the squeeze on coal-fired power plants. Second, the 5th Circuit overturned the injunction preventing Texas from cutting off state funding for Planned Parenthood.
The Democrats' Charlotte convention is going to have fewer parties and fewer stars than the 2008 convention in Denver. The economy and the less "historical" nature of the election are cited.
Team Romney is out with a new ad today that's sure to confuse and enrage Democrats and Socialists (BIRM). Entitled "Nothing's Free," the ad continues the Obamacare-enabled Medicare attack and also gets some good shots in on Obama's plan to raise taxes.
And a new AP-GfK poll has the race statistically tied. Note that it's a registered voter poll when the pollsters really should be switching to the likely voter model.
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August 21, 2012
— Maetenloch
Buck up lil' campers - with charts like going for us this we still have at least 2 or 3 solid chances left to snatch defeat from the maw of victory.
New campaign slogan: This will NOT be our new normal!
more...
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— CAC AKA: Chill the f*** out.
Missouri was a gimme, now its likely gone.
Maine is probably gone too, Slu says hold on, I call that a loss.
I see us holding Nevada and Indiana comfortably, esp after R ads hit in Indiana to tie the Democrat to Obamacare. Scott Brown has enjoyed a lead over Fauxahontas, so with this holding we are down 1 seat to 46.
Add Nebraska. That is a given, and gets you to 47.
Add Wisconsin. Baldwin has failed to make any ground, Thompson has near-perfect Republican unity and enjoys an advantage with Independents, that gets you to 48.
Add Montana and North Dakota, where internal polling shows Ds with a slight lead but public polling a different story, and where Republicans will have a monetary advantage for the cycle.
That's 50.
Romney-Ryan means 51- because VP Ryan tie-breaks the Senate.
Problem solved, without Missouri. Or Florida, Ohio, New Mexico or Virginia for that matter. Wins in any of those states gets you to 51 outright. Consider those "call of history/RINO" insurance states.
In terms of odds, I put our chances at capturing 51 seats outright at about 50/50. Getting to 50 seats? 75%. So while Missouri is a slept-on-boner-of-a-pain, all is not lost.
In terms of how likely each seat goes?
100% Nebraska, 99% Wisconsin, 90% Montana, 75% North Dakota, 60% Virginia, 50% Florida, 40% New Mexico/Ohio, 35% Hawaii/Missouri, 25% Michigan, <10% Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Connecticut.
There are more paths to a Senate majority than there are for Romney to hit 270 electoral votes, and with recent polling in the midwest, southwest and south, that's a lot of paths.
To contribute to the competitive races:
MONTANA- Rehberg
WISCONSIN- Thompson
NORTH DAKOTA- Berg
FLORIDA- Mack
VIRGINIA- Allen
OHIO- Mandel
NEW MEXICO- Wilson
and lets not forget Scott Brown of Massachusetts, facing his own fight.
Slu had also suggested we don't abandon Summers in MAINE, so send him a few bucks too.
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04:31 PM
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— Ace No, exactly the opposite.
It's pretty strange that we're having a major party dispute and Levin, Limbaugh, Hannity, Coulter, Krauthammer, NRO, and Michelle Malkin (who was the first heavy-hitter to weigh in, and sharpy, too) are all on the same page.
And I'm on the same page. I have been saying exactly what Coulter's been saying (including the c-ksucker-ish approach we both used to appeal to his patriotism to get him the hell out) and what Levin's now saying (who cares about Todd Akin, the person? This is about our country and our children).
Levin goes off at 2:22.
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