January 19, 2010

Coakley Advisor's Memo on Likely Loss: Obama's Agenda Doomed Us
— Ace

Point fingers at us? Well, Mr. Fancypants, who saddled me with having to embrace a hard-left agenda?

Brown Capitalized on Concerns About National Democrats

— From the beginning, Brown labeled President Obama's health care and cap and trade plans as tax increases. Polling throughout the race showed this to be the most effective attack on Coakley.

— Coakley's lead dropped significantly after the Senate passed health care reform shortly before Christmas and after the Christmas Eve "bombing" incident. Polling showed significant concerns with the actions of Senator Nelson to hold out for a better deal. Senator Nelson's actions specifically hurt Coakley who was forced to backtrack on her opposition to the abortion restriction amendment.

— Democrats concerns with Obama's Afghanistan plan forced Coakley to oppose the Afghan war in the primary, which hurt her in the general.

And yet we'll be told all night this has nothing to do with Obama. (Except if she wins, in which case it has everything to do with Captain Wonderful.)

The White House shot back:

UPDATE: A White House official e-mails: "It's a little mind-boggling to see political consultants spin the election before the election is even over. There's only one reason to do that."

What dips, if you know what I mean, and I think you do.

Posted by: Ace at 12:10 PM | Comments (115)
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Checklist
— Ace

Wipe and set computer back to factory preload? Check.

Got on train for Boston? Check.

Reserved room at hotel? Check.

Acquired a snack-size container of butterscotch pudding? Failed. Will have to scramble to get one in Boston.

Posted by: Ace at 12:03 PM | Comments (104)
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RNC: 100% as Evil But Only 50% as Stupid -- GOP Shifted Money Into Massachusett[e]s Quietly To GOTV While Not Painting a Red Target on Brown's Back
— Ace

I was just going to praise the RNC for not getting too involved in this race and thereby avoiding turning off persuadable Democrats and independents.

Turns out they did it a little better than that. They did push money into the race -- 500 K, no one's idea of chump change -- but kept it on the QT.

While some journalists and political strategists across the partisan and ideological spectrum (including those at the Club for Growth in a press release attacking the NRSC) criticized the GOPÂ’s campaign arm last week for not putting money into the race, the reality is quite different.

In fact, the NRSC had, a full week earlier, transferred $500,000 to the Massachusetts Republican Party to support BrownÂ’s candidacy. For obvious reasons, the committee opted to keep that move quiet.

And the NRSC also got the Republican National Committee to agree to send funds to the Massachusetts GOP.

Posted by: Ace at 11:57 AM | Comments (47)
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Good Omen: Boston Globe Reports Coakley Win 8 Hours Before Polls Close
— Ace

You lie.

Posted by: Ace at 11:48 AM | Comments (94)
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A Tale of Two Governors
— Dave in Texas

Newly elected New Jersey Governor Chris Christie promises to rein in spending, cut taxes and cut the state deficit upon taking the oath of office.

"The era of runaway spending and higher and higher taxes has not worked," he said in prepared remarks. "We have the largest budget deficit per person of any state in the union. We have the highest tax rates in the nation ... Today, a new era of lower taxes and higher growth will begin."

David Paterson meanwhile has been warning New York about an inevitable day of reckoning, citing "mistakes of the past, the squandering of surpluses, the papering over of deficits, the relying on gimmicks to finance unsustainable spending increases has led us to the breaking point," and therefore proposes a budget of $136 billion dollars (a .5% increase), and $1.1 billion of increased taxes and fees like a $465 million excise tax on corn syrup, a buck a pack cigarette tax hike ($210 million), $216 million levies on healthcare providers. And a bunch of other stuff.

Which looks an awful lot like that other stuff he was complaining about.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 10:35 AM | Comments (116)
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Claim: Early Exit Polls Show Close Race, But With Brown Edging Coakley
— Ace

I have never heard of this site in my life, and the contributor is, of course, "Anonymous."

I don't really want to even post this.

However, since it is apparently now in the internet stream, I'll mention it, and also offer my extremely strong doubts that these guys have gotten wind of exit polls before, say, the very well-connected Jim Geraghty or other guys at NRO.

Suspicions Confirmed: I asked the tipster on this what confidence he had in it, and he said little, he was just tossing me everything.

Allah also piped up -- John Fund says no exit polls at all (wondered strongly about that-- this isn't a presidential election, after all), and this site claimed a few days ago that Lieberman would endorse Brown, which he didn't.

So, not reliable at all. Just take this as debunking post for your own benefit.

Posted by: Ace at 09:17 AM | Comments (461)
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Polls and Such - And Turnout High
— Ace

Old news, but I hear Hot Air is loading slow, so let me steal some stuff.

The weather isn't as bad as thought -- and turnout is high.

Which might favor Coakley... but I don't know...

[Democratic] outreach workers in and around Boston have been stunned by the number of Democrats and Obama supporters who are waving them off, saying theyÂ’ll vote for Scott Brown.

I predicted at least a 25% Democratic crossover -- and I may have to revise that.

Democrats have a 3:1 advantage over Republicans in Massachusett[e]s. If 25% of Democrats crossover, that reduces the advantage to 2.25 : 1.75 -- still a gap, but independents are breaking hard for Brown.

What will Democratic turnout be? Well, those voting for Brown will have higher turnout rates.

Democrats did not turn out much to save Corzine or that idiot in Virginia. Deeds. Whatever. So there is some hope there.

But, those races did not directly impact Obama or ObamaCare like this one does.

So I'd say it's in between -- we'll see Obama's troopers coming out in greater numbers than they did in NJ and VA, but we will still not see them turning out anywhere near the levels we'd see if Obama were on the ballot.

I still see the Democratic advantage narrowing, based on turnout, to something like 2.1 - 1.9.

Leaving the race in the hands of "unenrolled" (independent) voters, who are of course breaking for Brown by something like a 25-30 point margin. And they are, we're told, much more likely to vote than in the normal off-off-year election.

I still stick with my previous prediction. Higher turnout doesn't really help Coakley or Obama.

The high turnout will wind up putting an exclamation point on the election -- we didn't just steal this seat stealthily. Everyone voted, everyone knew the stakes, and we still won by a comfortable margin.

But still: Vote.


DSCC polling shows Brown up by 5.

Yes, the internal Coakley campaign poll numbers that have leaked out show a dead even race and perhaps a slight improvement over last week. However, there was more than one internal poll conducted by Democrats[.] A little birdie tells me that the final tracking survey conducted by the Mellman Group for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had Brown ahead by five points.

FWIW, Zogby comes in with a headline-grabbing prediction of a Coakley win -- by less than a point.

Worrisome -- so, like, vote and stuff.

Rep. Peter Wiener says ObamaCare is dead if Brown wins.

There is always the possibility that the House will pass the Senate bill unchanged -- and thus the Senate would not have to re-vote, and Brown could not join a filibuster. But Weiner says the Senate bill is too far from what the House liberals want to be passed into law without changes.

Another problem is the defy-the-will-of-the-people problem. Obviously this will be viewed as yet another cheap tactic to thwart the public's clearly-announced will. How many midnight votes and sneaky maneuvers do they dare?

Finally, if Brown wins, we might not even need Brown, as Landrieu, Nelson, Bayh, and the rest of supposedly "moderate" Democrats in red or reddish states may finally break from their party on this.

Oh, and if Brown wins, Obama vows he'll be a real friggin' crankypants about it.

President Barack Obama plans a combative response if, as White House aides fear, Democrats lose TuesdayÂ’s special Senate election in Massachusetts, close advisers say.

“This is not a moment that causes the president or anybody who works for him to express any doubt,” a senior administration official said. “It more reinforces the conviction to fight hard.”…

There won’t be any grand proclamation that “the era of Big Government is over” — the words President Bill Clinton uttered after Republicans won the Congress in the 1990s and he was forced to trim a once-ambitious agenda.

“The response will not be to do incremental things and try to salvage a few seats in the fall,” a presidential adviser said. “The best political route also happens to be the boldest rhetorical route, which is to go out and fight and let the chips fall where they may. We can say, ‘At least we fought for these things, and the Republicans said no.’”

At the link, read how Obama sees himself as the "underdog" against Brown.

Democrats are already blaming Coakley. Fair enough -- she does deserve a lot of blame. However, Democrats are kidding themselves if they think this uprising occurred simply because Coakley was an indifferent campaigner.

Can they imagine any other factor that keeps contributing to these losses?

Posted by: Ace at 09:13 AM | Comments (83)
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Keith Olbermann Endorses... Scott Brown?
— Ace

He calls Brown “an irresponsible, homophobic, racist, reactionary, ex-nude model, teabagging supporter of violence against woman."

He just hit every box on my checklist of Pure Awesome.


Fellow MSDNC employee Joe Scarborough is calling Olbermann "sad and pathetic."

Don't expect to see Keith tonight. He'll be in the bathtub, crying his moony eyes out.

Friggin' buffoon. Bitter clownboy headcase.

Scott "Five-Lots" Brown for Senate

Come for the "ex-nude model."

Stay for the "racist homophobic teabagging advocate of violence against women."

Posted by: Ace at 08:06 AM | Comments (309)
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Headed to Brown HQ for Election Results!
— Ace

Drew and I were invited up to Boston to enjoy the... let's not jinx this, the results, foul or fair.

So we'll be doing what we normally do -- swiping headlines from Hot Air and Drudge -- but we'll be doing it at a cool place, so like, bonus value or something.

I'm taking the train, I'm pretty sure, and can access the internet through my phone, so there shouldn't be much downtime as far as blogging. I'll be able to blog en route.

One thing: Because I may be trying to do other stuff there -- like maybe interview a campaign staffer -- tips should be sent to both the aceofspadeshq address, and the morontips account. Morontips is an account all the cobloggers have access to -- it's morontips at gmail. With the dot, and then the com. That way none of the good tips will get lost in the shuffle.

A guy who'll also be covering the event wrote me:

Let me just say that voting for Scott Brown this morning was a lot like sex. The first time was so fun, I'd like to do it again and again and again.

* searches web for local ACORN office *

If you voted, please share!

BTW: I blew off the convention in 2008, because I figured it would be lame. (Didn't realize Palin was going to rock the house like that.)

This is the first big-timey thing I'm going to. It's like the Super Bowl.

Fingers crossed.

Posted by: Ace at 07:35 AM | Comments (287)
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Bill Clinton's Turn Of Phrase
— LauraW

Cuffy uses his powerful news-sniffin' snout to turn up this truffle for us:

Former President Bill Clinton urged House Democrats last week to do a better job of telling voters how the legislation would help them, such as expanding coverage to the uninsured and establishing networks to offer more insurance options.

"Put the corn where the hogs can get it," Clinton said, using a colorful phrase for making something clear and accessible, according to an aide who took notes at the speech.

Because the problem with the health care legislation is that you cousin-humpin' waterheads just don't get it. All them fancy words need to be pre-chewed and spit into your mouths by mama bird.

Sorry.
Was that too 'colorful?'

Maybe you Morons can come up with a better phrase than Bill Clinton's or mine.

Posted by: LauraW at 06:06 AM | Comments (339)
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