Happy Friday!

Mitt Romney has taken the lead in RCP's electoral vote count. Because of President Obama's losses, namely Florida and North Carolina, RCP has it 206 EVs for Romney, 201 for Obama, and 131 toss-ups.

There's a pretty sad effort to rally Democrats in this CNBC piece: "at least Obama still has Iowa and Wisconsin." I think the only thing that need be said in reply is, "SOON."

The Department of Homeland Security IG is saying that the Secret Service Director misled Congress when he testified about the prostitution scandal. But we already sorta knew that the misbehavior was cultural, no?

The weekly ad spending totals are out for this week. I'm told if you do the math (and, really, why the hell don't they have a summary page or something?) it comes to $62m spent in total this week. Obama and Democratic groups spent $25.5m. Romney and GOP groups spent $36.5m.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:51 AM | Comments (417)
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Tired and under the weather so tonight's ONT will be mostly non-verbal.

Election Rules

Just remember that we've only had 57 presidential elections - ever. So it's not hard to come up with plenty of 'rules' which never fail - well right up until they do.

Another awesome work by xkcd.

Posted by: Maetenloch at 06:27 PM | Comments (848)
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Big, big, big, big map, since it's been the first in a while with the "official" style.

Did I mention it is big? more...

Posted by: CAC at 06:01 PM | Comments (169)
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Predictable endorsements don't matter.

Unpredictable ones-- papers jumping from Obama to Romney, as the NY Observer did, and now so too the Orlando Sentinel -- just might.

Economic growth, three years into the recovery, is anemic. Family incomes are down, poverty is up. Obama's Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, highlighted these and other hard truths in this week's second debate.

Even the September jobless numbers deserve an asterisk, because more than 4 million Americans have given up looking for work since January 2009.

And while the nation's economy is still sputtering nearly four years after Obama took office, the federal government is more than $5 trillion deeper in debt. It just racked up its fourth straight 13-figure shortfall.

We have little confidence that Obama would be more successful managing the economy and the budget in the next four years. For that reason, though we endorsed him in 2008, we are recommending Romney in this race.

Obama's defenders would argue that he inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression, and would have made more progress if not for obstruction from Republicans in Congress. But Democrats held strong majorities in the House and Senate during his first two years.

Other presidents have succeeded even with the other party controlling Capitol Hill. Democrat Bill Clinton presided over an economic boom and balanced the budget working with Republicans. Leaders find a way.

There's more, of course, but I can't quote too much. The next part I wanted to quote was about Obama's lack of any plan on entitlements and the deficit, but you'll have to click through for that.

PS: Clips from the Al Smith dinner now embedded in the below post. Romney was pretty rough on Obama.

Posted by: Ace at 05:47 PM | Comments (72)
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The Al Smith Dinner is a Catholic charity dinner. Presidential candidates typically attend. I do not remember it occurring this late in election season.

Sorry, I just realized this was on.

Romney on debate prep: "First, refrain from alcohol for 65 years before the debate."

Just had a good joke: "Speaking of Sesame Street, tonight's dinner was brought to you by the letter 'O' and the number 16 trillion."

You can't get through an election without someone who truly stands with you. I have my lovely wife Ann, he has Bill Clinton.

"Of course rules have to be enforced, we need to make sure things are fair, (sarcastically) that's why we have the press."

"But the press and I have different jobs. My job is to tell the American people my plans for the country, the press' job is to make sure no one hears about it."

The press maybe sees things in a particular way. They've already written the headlines about tonight's dinner: "Obama embraced by Catholics, Romney dines with Rich people"

Obama on the second debate: "I felt well-rested, after the nice long nap I had during the first debate."

Obama on first debate: "I want to apologize to Chris Matthews. The first time I gave him a thrill up his leg, this time I gave him a stroke."

Obama talking about Romney's and his names: "Actually, Mitt is his middle name. (ruefully) I wish I could use my middle name."

On the next debate on Foreign Policy: "Spoiler alert: We got bin Ladin." (Funnier than it sounds, it was a self-deprecating crack about his intention to ride that body into November.)

Clips Below.

more...

Posted by: Ace at 05:20 PM | Comments (207)
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You didn't hear about the First Lady Debate? That's okay, nobody did. It didn't happen.

But when Jimmy Kimmel asked NYC pedestrians who they thought won, they offered their made-up answers.

In this Bullshitter's Ball, Team Obama destroys Team Romney 80%-20%.

One guy admits that "honestly" he only saw a "little bit of it," because he was busy with something else.

more...

Posted by: Ace at 03:14 PM | Comments (395)
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Not 34%, 18%. Which means the Marist finding (just like the Ohio one) is horseshit.

18%. Take your eyeballs over to the Secretary of States' website which shows a total of 284,000 in. Unless 2012 turnout is going to crash to unbelievable levels (was 1.5 million in 08, just under that in 04), that is 18%.

Demographic breakdown:
Democrats have a 54,000 vote edge, 49.4% to R's 30.3%, meaning Obama must be running better than 7/8ths of the Independent vote to approach your "35 point margin". In fact, the Democratic "advantage" so far matches the 2004 "advantage", a race they lost by over 10,000 votes.

Facts are a shitty thing when you are desperately clinging to the narrative.
For those fact-checkers out there, go ahead and look at the numbers reported by the Secretary of State. I'm not pulling stats out of my butt like, obviously, Marist. That statistic of "1/3 in and its 2/3 Obama !!!" will be repeated ad naseum as truth, when it is bogus and easily disproven. Let's see how many actually bother to fact-check it. I'm not holding my breath.

Posted by: CAC at 02:50 PM | Comments (141)
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What say you, ladies?

Look, before this post goes any further, I want to make one thing perfectly clear: I think that Ohio's women are beautiful, sensual creatures who with but a subtle glance or delicate gesture can turn even the strongest of men into quivering pools of nerve-tingling emotion and exhausted satisfaction.

Seriously. I believe that when it comes to putting the "Oh!" in Ohio, there are no finer candidates than the Buckeye state's native lovelies. In fact, I have it on good authority that all red blooded conservatives and Republicans (except for a few holdout Wolverines in neighboring Michigan) feel the same way. Especially in election years when your votes could determine the outcome of a crucial swing state.

Just making that clear. Y'all know we have your back.

Which distinguishes us further, then, from President #Ladyparts Obama's campaign surrogates like Bruce Springsteen, who apparently believe that when it comes to all things intimate, Ohio's women leave much to be desired. more...

Posted by: Jack M. at 02:34 PM | Comments (115)
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It's kind of an old poll -- Oct. 11 - 13, before the debate. Not that I think the debate helped Obama (quite the opposite), but this is now quite an old poll. Why is it just being released now?

If I had to guess-- because Romney wants to make a play for Pennsylvania.

Or, even more likely, because the "state party" (the GOP) which commissioned this poll wants to encourage Romney to make a play there. Whether Romney wins or loses, it would probably help all the other Republicans running for office.

So here's the Susquatch Poll, written up in the Examiner.

It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.

"The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it," Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner.

Romney isn't spending much time or money in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

...

Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008.

All other polls show Obama ahead, by 2 or 4 points. Tight race.

Posted by: Ace at 02:11 PM | Comments (151)
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per Susquehanna Polling's latest (Oct 11-13th) and their twitter feed. BOOM

*Dials doctor to tell him it will be more than four hours*

Almost like Pennsylvania got tired of that hussy Ohio getting all the attention...

And for the long-awaited CAC white-whale-hunting-reaction: more...

Posted by: CAC at 02:03 PM | Comments (113)
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