Who wants cake?

Not a crushing victory, but a victory nonetheless -- the sitting VP was bested by the challenger.

So Romney passed the Threshold test -- spectacularly -- and Ryan passed it as well.

And in both debates, they won.

Alex Castellantos on CNN had a point: The post-debate buzz will be about Biden's buffoonish mugging.

I hate to say this, but as I said in the liveblog, Biden's Mission Number One was to reassure and re-energize the base. He did that. He at least stopped some Democrats from defecting to Romney, or deciding not to vote.

But he did play exclusively to the Democratic Client Groups -- all the groups with their hands out for federal money. It was all Tamanny Hall, ward-heeler stuff -- vote for me, I will put Cash Money in your pocket.

Where's yo' dollah?

I don't think that will help with independents and those on the fence. Those people were already with the Democrats. Those who rely on the Democratic Client State for their income will, naturally, vote like their income depends on it.

Still, Biden did accomplish that much.

But the main trajectory of the race is that Romney and Ryan are capable, knowledgeable, pleasant men with serious ideas about the future of this country, better qualified for office than the men in office now, and Obama and Biden are still pushing musty old welfare plans from the late 1960's.

Likability: Pollsters say that likability sets the upper bound for your level of support. If people don't like you, they won't vote for you.

This debate will not strongly impact the race, but note that Ryan -- the crazy extremist who wants to kill your grandparents -- is viewed as likable by more than a majority of the public, whereas Biden has... the Democratic Client System base.

Biden Lied About Voting Against The Wars. He claimed he wisely voted against them, out of concern for their cost.

In fact, he voted in favor of both.

AP Poll: CAC tweeted an AP poll showing Ryan well ahead but it now seems like there's a lot of doubt on this.

CAC gets tipped to polls early by a source. Most of these are correct. Every once in a while, his source is wrong.

Laughing Boy: He played to the MSNBC crowd. But at what cost? more...

Posted by: Ace at 07:32 PM | Comments (552)
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Lemon Juice and the Dunning-Kruger Effect

The Dunning-Kruger effect has been mentioned quite a few times on the blog. The short version of it is that truly incompetent people are so incompetent that they're also unable to even perceive that they're incompetent i.e. they don't know what they don't know and think they're actually pretty good.

And the original paper actually references an example of it involving a robbery FAIL:

In 1995, McArthur Wheeler walked into two Pittsburgh banks and robbed them in broad daylight, with no visible attempt at disguise. He was arrested later that night, less than an hour after videotapes of him taken from surveillance cameras were broadcast on the 11 o'clock news. When police later showed him the surveillance tapes, Mr. Wheeler stared in incredulity. "But I wore the juice" he mumbled. Apparently, Mr. Wheeler was under the impression that rubbing one's face with lemon juice rendered it invisible to videotape cameras (Fuocco, 1996).

And in fact Mr. Wheeler had tested his lemon juice disguise with a Polaroid camera but was too stupid to realize that he had screwed up his test. Leading the authors to state their main point:

Perhaps more controversial is the third point, the one that is the focus of this article. We argue that when people are incompetent in the strategies they adopt to achieve success and satisfaction, they suffer a dual burden: Not only do they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it. Instead, like Mr. Wheeler, they are left with the mistaken impression that they are doing just fine. As Miller (1993) perceptively observed in the quote that opens this article, and as Charles Darwin (1871) sagely noted over a century ago, "ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" (p. 3).

Joe Biden's debate performance (and entire career) is proof that those afflicted with DK syndrome can still lead happy fulfilling lives and even hope to become president one day.

Posted by: Maetenloch at 06:35 PM | Comments (475)
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What Ace said:

You guys need to calm down with "Ryan will destroy Biden." Biden is a good debater.

— FourTwoZero (@AceofSpadesHQ) October 11, 2012

Livestream and liveblog below the fold. more...

Posted by: andy at 04:45 PM | Comments (1470)
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In Maine's 2nd Congressional District.

You all want a real white whale? the 2nd Congressional District is the ultimate, long rumored to be more Republican than the rest of the Land of Snowe, and thanks to redistricting, it apparently is. Maine is only one of two states that awards electoral votes to congressional district winners, the other is Nebraska, which gave McCain his final election 2008 kick-in-the-balls by awarding the 2nd district's EV to President Obama.

Obama leads in the statewide poll 48%-44%, still very close.

Flipping this would almost make up for Obamaha in 2008.

Almost.

Posted by: CAC at 04:27 PM | Comments (79)
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The good news: this happened in Ohio. Oh, I meant the good news for us. Sorry there, Ben.

These Obama flunkies are still all over the map on their Libya stories. Compare this with what Stephanie Cutter has said today about "waiting for the facts".

Consistent storylines: How do they work? more...

Posted by: JohnE. at 03:55 PM | Comments (157)
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We're going to be liveblogging at 9, or just before.

I'm going to listen to Carolla or something so I'm not burned out for it. more...

Posted by: Ace at 03:20 PM | Comments (157)
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269, since the Republicans control the House enough to break the tie.

270, well, President time anyway.

Big Map, long overdue, and had to step on the furball below.

Enjoy. more...

Posted by: CAC at 02:51 PM | Comments (171)
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Video Now Up: At the Right Scoop.

Bret Baier just interviewed her. She doubled down on claiming that Benghazi is only a political issue, claiming Romney was the first person to "politicize" it with his post-Cairo Embassy apologism statement.

She blabbled when Baier pointed out that the White House, too, had disowned those remarks-- night of the protests in Cairo.

Plus, Baier didn't note this, but Cairo is not in Libya.

She continued to claim this was all political, saying "We have two people out on the campaign trail accusing us of covering something up."

When Bret Baier played the tape of Obama on Letterman again claiming it was a spontaneous YouTube protest, she claimed this was the information she had.

When Baier noted that the State Department issued a statement that it had never, not even in the earliest hours, been their belief that the attack had anything to do with the YouTube video, she claimed she got that information from "intelligence" (the CIA).

Having not done very well at all, she ended the interview vowing, "Next time I'll bring my notes."

Meanwhile, Katie Pavlich asked her if she had any intention of resigning. Cutter said she did not, and fled the interview.

Drudge, meanwhile, refuses to elevate this to a major headline story, because, you know, he's better than bloggers, and needs to differentiate himself.

Posted by: Ace at 02:40 PM | Comments (147)
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Winning Hispanics 46-44?

The survey conducted this week found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That's a major shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent — and a direct result of what Obama himself called a "bad night" at the first debate.

The debate prompted 5 percent of previously undecided voters and 2 percent of Obama backers to move to Romney. Another 2 percent of Obama supporters said they are now undecided because of the debate.

Okay, Florida is starting to look okay. But Florida has always been among the easiest of the states we need to flip. Hopefully this poll will be confirmed by others.

Virginia and Ohio, Virginia and Ohio.

Via @fixaaron and @johnekdahl

W.R. Meade: It's Not About Ideology. From Meade, excerpting "The Monkey Cage" blog.

The Monkey Cage cites a plot from YouGov, in which people note their own ideological leanings, and their perception of Romney's and Obama's leanings. Turns out, people rate themselves (in aggregate) closer to Romney than Obama.

So:

Romney may not have needed this pivot to the center anyway. Even though he is perceived as more conservative than the average voter—and increasingly so—he is still closer to the average voter than is Obama. This belies the notion that Romney’s conservative positions in the primary have damaged him in the general election. Romney’s struggles up until his debate win were not about ideology. And if this debate has a long-term effect on the race, it may not involve making voters see him as more moderate. In fact, although Romney’s embrace of conservatism has attracted more commentary, Obama’s perceived liberalism could prove the bigger liability in November.

Meade concludes:

Romney didnÂ’t shift ideologically; he passed a threshold test [of gravitas and Presidential mien.]

Yeah, I forget who was saying this, but someone was making the case that one of these guys, Ryan or Romney, finally has to brand Obama as a Big-L Liberal.

Posted by: Ace at 02:10 PM | Comments (171)
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I forget who the heck I got this from. You've read it already.

But I've had this tab open for days now. At some point, I either have to close it or post it.

So let us return, briefly, back to the start of the Cult of Obama.

As Commander Spoc said, "Remember."

Is Obama an enlightened being? / Spiritual wise ones say: This sure ain't no ordinary politician. You buying it?

By Mark Morford, SF Gate Columnist

Published 4:00 a.m., Friday, June 6, 2008

...

Barack Obama isn't really one of us. Not in the normal way, anyway.

...

Dismiss it all you like, but I've heard from far too many enormously smart, wise, spiritually attuned people who've been intuitively blown away by Obama's presence - not speeches, not policies, but sheer presence - to say it's just a clever marketing ploy, a slick gambit carefully orchestrated by hotshot campaign organizers...

Here's where it gets gooey. Many spiritually advanced people I know (not coweringly religious, mind you, but deeply spiritual) identify Obama as a Lightworker, that rare kind of attuned being who has the ability to lead us not merely to new foreign policies or health care plans or whatnot, but who can actually help usher in a new way of being on the planet, of relating and connecting and engaging with this bizarre earthly experiment. These kinds of people actually help us evolve. They are philosophers and peacemakers of a very high order, and they speak not just to reason or emotion, but to the soul.

The unusual thing is, true Lightworkers almost never appear on such a brutal, spiritually demeaning stage as national politics. This is why Obama is so rare....

There's a vast amount of positive energy swirling about that's been held back by the armies of BushCo darkness, and this energy has now found a conduit, a lightning rod, is now effortlessly self-organizing around Obama's candidacy. People and emotions and ideas of high and positive vibration are automatically drawn to him. It's exactly like how Bush was a magnet for the low vibrational energies of fear and war and oppression and aggression, but, you know, completely reversed. And different. And far, far better.

Four dead in Benghazi, blood on the Administration's hands, and nothing but lies -- and the arrest of a filmmaker-- since.

Where's your Lightworker now?

By the way: How perfect is it that that drunk-dial of a column was posted at 4:00am?

Oh: Let me clear this one too: How the media loved Obama to death. It was in the sidebar, too.

more...

Posted by: Ace at 01:47 PM | Comments (161)
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