The last Saturday of October, and lots of you morons in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast are hunkering down for the big storm. Stay safe morons.

Top tens:

Alabama (1) vs. Mississippi State (11)* at 8:30pm
Florida (2) vs. Georgia (10) at 3:30pm
K State (3) and Texas Tech (14) at 3:30pm (this will be a good game)
Oregon (4) vs. Colorado at 3pm
Notre Dame (5) and Oklahoma ( at 8pm
Oregon St. (7) vs. Washington at 10:15pm
USC (9) and Arizona at 3:30pm

ALSO analysis: Is this the pass that won RG III the Heisman? A very detailed breakdown of a throw OU fans would just as soon forget. Video below the fold.

Sorry about the math.

*also sorry I overlooked Miss State's 11th ranking. I was lookin at legs. Sue me. more...

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 07:37 AM | Comments (297)
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Just popping in for a quick morning post. Now back to hurricane prep.

1) Whiskey
2) Vodka
3) Tequila
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Posted by: andy at 04:16 AM | Comments (490)
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Hi there, Morons and Moronettes. tmi3rd here again, and relatively little change in the forecast track so far, but the timeline is beginning to firm up. For the above-the-fold discussion, if you're anywhere from DC to Boston, you need to be finishing up your preparations for a strong tropical storm to Category 1 hurricane hit. You need to also expect extremely high tides and for the possibility that this storm may linger for a bit.

More beneath the fold... more...

Posted by: Open Blogger at 07:41 PM | Comments (215)
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What up morons? Hurricane Sandy really messed up my day and probably my weekend as the Fleet is in the process of hitting the seas to avoid whatever Sandy has in store for the area. Hope all you morons that are in the path are prepared for the worst i.e. you got your medicinal booze in appropriate amounts.

Latest on Hurricane Sandy.

This might come in handy in the next few days. Power Outage and Blackout Tracker. more...

Posted by: CDR M at 06:09 PM | Comments (663)
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Sometimes, analysis can just suck.
Some real gems in it, particularly this line:

The media's fantasy of Bush winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college is not going happen.

With more polling firms these days, blowing a call this badly will not likely happen again unless your initials are D.M.

Posted by: CAC at 04:32 PM | Comments (376)
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In three charts.
Walker won easily in his recall not thanks to depressed Democrats in Madison or Milwaukee but by amped support in the Milwaukee suburbs, the Green Bay markets, and, importantly, the "rest of" the state. Places like NW Wisconsin (Duluth Metropolitan Area) W Wisconsin (part of the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area) and Central Wisconsin. These "other parts" get ignored but are critical for a Republican and can make a serious difference.

Evidence below the fold, VERY big evidence.

[Update - Andy: Click the images to embiggen] more...

Posted by: CAC at 03:17 PM | Comments (186)
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No one... in the CIA.

Hmm. Who would be in a position to order the stand-down, who's not in the CIA?

Hmmmm...

It would have to be someone very high ranking in the chain of command, obviously.

Not military -- I don't think the military can order the CIA.

So, someone high ranking who is not military and also not in the CIA, but who gives orders to the CIA.

I give up. I can't solve this mystery.

Can you?

Thanks to JammieWF.

Local Reporter Commits Act of Journalism: I'm just watching this now. Drew says it gets ugly.

Actually... I don't know what's so great about it. Some tough questions are asked, but Obama filibusters for five minutes on each. JammieWF has a transcript of the key answer.

Shorter Clip: Man, he just completely ignores the question. more...

Posted by: Ace at 02:35 PM | Comments (366)
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IÂ’m giving the podcast thing another try. The audio isnÂ’t perfect yet but itÂ’s better than last time.

I spoke with Robert Caruso (@robertcaruso), heÂ’s worked on physical, operational and crypological issues while serving in the Navy and in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. HeÂ’s also worked for the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), the office charged with preventing and uncovering waste, fraud and abuse in US reconstruction programs across Afghanistan. Robert has also consulted with the State Department on matters of diplomatic security.

The interview focuses on how an attack like this could happen and the role the culture and structure of the State Department may have played in the multiple failures leading up to the tragic death of four Americans on September 11, 2012 in Benghazi Libya.

Also note that interview was conducted on Wednesday afternoon before today's revelations.
more...

Posted by: DrewM at 01:45 PM | Comments (105)
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And not a moment too soon.

A new CNN poll has Ohio Obama 50, Romney 46. With a not-at-all objectionable split (small D skew).

But one thing about that poll: It has Obama leading with Independent voters. @baseballcrank points out this is an outlier:

The reason Ohio is giving me the shakes is that I haven't seen a single poll with Romney ahead there. I see some times, and more Obama leads.

It is true that if someone wins the national popular vote by 1% or 1.5% or more, the odds of him losing the electoral college are very small.

The trouble is, the current RCP average has Romney leading by 0.9%. At that level of difference, the race really would come down to how independently-acting swing states voted. And on that count, we're behind.

Or so the polls say.

And it's driving me crazy. Only three friends are keeping me sane at this point: A chair, a rope, & a rafter.

But Baseball Crank talks me back off the chair some with this analysis.

He argues -- with charts and numbers and all sorts of crazy math -- that there is a very strong correlation between the independent vote and the the total vote received by a candidate.

Thus pushing back against this idea that Obama can afford a loss in independents but make up for it with Democratic turnout.

The problem for Obama, as Josh Jordan has pointed out here (with regard to the national polls) and here (with regard to the Ohio polls) and the Romney campaign addressed in a memo on Ohio on Thursday, is that whatever the toplines say, Obama is losing independents and losing them by a significant amount. JordanÂ’s analysis of the polls at the time showed Obama down, on average, 8.3 points with independents nationally and 8.7 points with independents in Ohio. If that holds (more on which below), and unless Obama can sustain the kind of significant edge in loyal partisan votes he had in 2008, heÂ’ll end up behind.

...

Everything in the latest polls suggests doom for Obama with independents. This morningÂ’s Washington Post poll has him down 20 with independents, 58-38. The Rasmussen national tracker has him down 17 today. TodayÂ’s IBD/TIPP poll has him down 10, 48-38. SurveyUSA/Monmouth has him trailing by 19, 52-33. The outlier, SEIU/DailyKos pollster PPP, had Romney up 2 yesterday with independents, 47-45, after the PPP tracker showed him up 10, 51-41, three days earlier. In this morningÂ’s swing state poll, Rasmussen shows Romney leading Obama by 11 with independents.

Well, it's a good argument.

I'd feel better if I didn't even need an argument, though, you know?

What I'd like is either an RCP average of Romney +4-5%, nationally, or a few polls with Romney ahead in Ohio.

Or: Wisconsin.

Which seems a better state for us.

Posted by: Ace at 12:55 PM | Comments (342)
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Now that he points this out, it's obvious-- a laser designator isn't a weapon. It's a designator which a flying weapons platform sees and then strikes.

A SEAL wouldn't just be pointing a laser designator at a target for shits and giggles. If there were no platform in the air that could fire on the target, he wouldn't be pointing a laser designator at the target. He'd be pointing a gun.

So there was almost certainly a platform capable of firing the weapon in the air.

And further: At that point, only two men would have been in a position to veto the strike.

The AFRICOM command, or the President.

Rush has an interview with a Special Operations planner who says that in an in extremis situation, as the attack on Libya was, the good guys would not have needed an explicit order to protect US personnel. Their standing general orders to protect US citizens and personnel would have already enabled them to act, absent a contrary order.

Only a negative order would have stopped them.

The Rush interview is well worth listening to. The guy calling in is obviously what he claims to be (unless he's some kind of virtuouso faker who can fluently explain details of Special Operations planning and protocols).
more...

Posted by: Ace at 12:21 PM | Comments (262)
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